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Sea Level Rise Already Causing Billions in Home Value To Disappear (axios.com)

Sea level rise may seem like a far-off threat, but a growing number of new studies, including one out this week, shows that real estate markets have already started responding to increased flooding risks by reducing prices of vulnerable homes. From a report: According to a new report by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, housing values in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut dropped $6.7 billion from 2005 to 2017 due to flooding related to sea level rise. Combined with their prior analysis of 5 southeastern coastal states with $7.4 billion in lost home value, the total loss in 8 states since 2005 has been $14.1 billion. A recent slew of studies show how the housing market is responding to the increasing risk of coastal flooding -- with billions in value disappearing as investors wake up to the systemic risk.

46 of 280 comments (clear)

  1. Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What is not waterfront property today, will be in the future. If I had lots of money I'd be buying it up now to resell later as increased value waterfront property.

    1. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by Q-Hack! · · Score: 2

      It ALL winds up underwater.

      Even the IPCC doesn't make this claim.

      --
      Some days I get the sinking feeling Orwell was an optimist.
    2. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by quenda · · Score: 2

      WRONG movie reference.

      Have you not heard of "Superman" where Lex Luthor has a plot to split the San Andres fault, and make a fortune on desert land becoming ocean-front?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    3. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by arth1 · · Score: 2

      Meaning that if that were to occur, the lowest level in Missouri (230 feet above sea level) wouldn't be flooded.

      By seawater.
      Mississippi River flooding worse now than any time in past 500 years

    4. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Because the highest mountain is only 160 ft above sea level ?

      *squint*

      Because Hollywood people know shit about geography. Yet we trust them to inform us on the fine points of nuclear physics.

    5. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by riverat1 · · Score: 5, Informative

      If every bit of land-based ice melted, the oceans would rise about 160 ft.

      I think that number is only for all of Antarctica. The number I've seen most often and what I got when I calculated it myself is more like 210 feet.

      Greenland has about 2,850,000 cubic kilometers of ice. Antarctica has about 26,500,000 cubic kilometers of ice. I'm going to ignore the rest of the ice because it's practically at rounding error levels. So the two of them together add up to 29,350,000 km^3 of ice. The surface area of the worlds oceans is about 361,000,000 km^2.

      So 29,350,000 km^3 divided by 360,000,000 km^2 equals 0.081527 km or about 267 feet. Of course the ocean spreads out as it rises so you have to take that into account so that's how they get 210 feet.

      Also that doesn't take into account sea level rise from thermal expansion. That is currently causing about 1/3 of the sea level rise we see.

    6. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by tacokill · · Score: 2, Informative

      Also that doesn't take into account sea level rise from thermal expansion. That is currently causing about 1/3 of the sea level rise we see.
      Uhh, no. Thermal expansion of SEAWATER does not cause a 33% increase in volume. Unless you are using some odd definition of "thermal expansion". Source: I sell pressure relief valves used for thermal expansion.

      Thermal expansion of water/seawater causes a very small increase in volume. Certainly there are things that can cause a large increase in volume (like turning that water into steam) but that is not the case - at all - for thermal expansion. Your assertion is drastically incorrect.

    7. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

      Because Hollywood people know shit about everything.

      Fixed that for you.

      I can't count the number of times I've seen incredibly stupid things like a train sliding on the ground for almost half a kilometer as if the ground was a slippery surface, how a man could survive an airborne trip inside a fridge caused by a nuclear explosion and somehow land intact because the fridge "protected him", etc.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    8. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 3, Insightful

      He said "1/3 of the sea level rise". If the sea level rised 3cm, then 1cm would be caused by thermal expansion of the whole sea.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    9. Re:Yes, but other property is increasing in value. by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 2

      Because the highest mountain is only 160 ft above sea level ?

      *squint*

      Because Hollywood people know shit about geography.

      As opposed to religious people?

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  2. Not from sea level rise by 110010001000 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Coastal homes are flooding because you have destroyed the buffer zones (marshlands/swamplands) that stopped the water from entering the area. What did you think would happen when you destroy the buffer zones for housing? It has nothing to do with climate change/whatever. But no one wants to address that issue, because there is no money in it.

    1. Re:Not from sea level rise by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 3, Insightful

      In fact, we want to fill in those marshes and wetlands so we can build more homes close to the beach! Swamp land is so cheap that way! Buffer shmuffer, cheaper land to build - and more tax base for the city/county/State!

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    2. Re:Not from sea level rise by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Funny

      You know, I believe Climate Change made you post what you just did, and your doubting of Climate Change is, in fact, the direct result of Climate Change! Now excuse me whilst I go and respond to Climate Change and use the bathroom. Because Climate Change.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:Not from sea level rise by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

      IF that is true, it just proves the poor and working class are STUPID.

      But I doubt it, the poor and working class watch their spending and don't buy as soon as they move. They might rent in the floodplain, but buy there? No.

      In Sacramento there are two classes of people living right next to dry creek. Tweekers and bay area transplants. Second group haven't seen the first flood yet, but moved right in. (So close to downtown!) Both groups are morons.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    4. Re:Not from sea level rise by 110010001000 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Not necessarily stupid: just misled by developers and into homes that are relatively cheap. Some people would assume that it would be illegal to build homes on floodplains and the government would be looking out for their interests. As usual, the government didn't care. Developers bought the flood plain lands because they were cheap and put housing on it. Fortunately the government has finally started to wise up to the concept that allowing homes to be built on lands that have been flooding for hundreds of years might not be a good idea.

    5. Re:Not from sea level rise by lgw · · Score: 2

      And to make it even worse, people are building on flood plains, having their homes flood, and blaming it on "climate change".

      For one BinaryTroll has a point. Much of the flooding around Houston during the recent hurricane was subdivisions build in areas purpose designed to flood in order to keep other areas from flooding. None of that was secret either - it's clearly shown on flood maps. I guess people don't understand that "100 year flood zone" means "this house will probably be lost to flooding during its expected life". But humans are bad at low-probability risks.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    6. Re: Not from sea level rise by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 2

      The ironic thing about your statement is, that those who scream "CLIMATE DENIER!" the loudest tend to be the same ones who deny the dust bowl was the hottest time we ever had,

      Who is "we"?

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  3. slashdot at its worst by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Climate change is yet another of those topics that brings out the worst in this "community". Morons either outright denying the reality of CC and its horrific impacts, or other morons trying to prove how smart they are by saying things like, "The real problem isn't sea level rise its the destruction of marshes."

    This place could be so much more than it is, if it weren't for the mental masturbators who can't simply accept the view of the overwhelming number of experts in a field.

    1. Re:slashdot at its worst by 110010001000 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Who is denying the reality of climate change? My point is that the reason your flood plain or fucking beach house is flooding IS BECAUSE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP THE WATER FROM ENTERING YOUR HOME. You drained the swamp, destroyed the wetlands. What the fuck you think is going to happen? No number of "carbon credits" is going to change it.

    2. Re:slashdot at its worst by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Florida was supposed to be underwater by the 90s, and last time I checked it is still there.

      Show me any oceanographer with scientific credentials who ever said that. You're paying attention to the wrong people if you think that was an actual prediction.

    3. Re:slashdot at its worst by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There have been cases in science where 40,000 papers by experts had to be considered questionable. It is possible for a large number of experts to be wrong.

      What you always fail to mention in noting this factoid is that the vast majority of them are in the medical or social sciences field. When you get into the physical sciences the number of retractions is far smaller. I think that is a distinction worth making.

    4. Re:slashdot at its worst by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      This place could be so much more than it is, if it weren't for the paid shills

      .

      But why should, of all sites, Slashdot not have them? Just grab a bag of popcorn and enjoy the view, the times of sensible discussion on this board have been over for at least 5-10 years.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  4. Problem for rich people by reanjr · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Primarily rich people and real estate investors wild be hit, while the middde class homes a bit farther inland will increase in value. Win/win.

    1. Re:Problem for rich people by Ichijo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Except when they use their political influence to get the city to reject managed retreat as a coastal erosion adaptation strategy. Guess who those homeowners expect to pay to rebuild the coastline?

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  5. Undersea bases by SqueakyMouse · · Score: 2

    Ahh, but what's happening to the stock prices of companies which are converting coastal properties into cool undersea bases?

  6. They were overvalued. by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Common sense says don't build on a flood plain. Oh and stop destroying marshlands and wetlands that protect from flooding in the first place.

  7. Re:By The Same Token by HornWumpus · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you're born here, you are native.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  8. national flood insurance by ooloorie · · Score: 5, Insightful

    They're not responding to sea level rise, they are responding to the expiration of the federal flood insurance program.

    As long as the federal flood insurance program was in place, people whose houses got flooded simply could rebuild a shiny new house at taxpayer expense again and again.

    As for sea level rise, it is happening and going to continue at roughly the same rate for a couple of centuries at least, no matter what we do, so that can't be the cause of sudden changes in coastal real estate prices. Whatever the threat may or may not be, it has been priced in for years.

    Furthermore, homes depreciate over about 30 years, so anything beyond that horizon is not worth worrying about.

    1. Re:national flood insurance by iggymanz · · Score: 2

      not only that, but they're going to claim recession of 2008 didn't cause some of the property value drop??!!! bullshit

    2. Re:national flood insurance by ooloorie · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Unfortunately climate change does not work "gradually over hundreds of years".

      We're talking about sea level rise, not climate change. Sea level rise necessarily is slow and gradual.

      We in NY/NJ getting hit with hurricanes the likes of which we have not been seen before. Prime real estate at ocean front either got swept away and what is left of it lost all value. Even in my far from ocean town the houses close to river cannot be sold any longer.

      The only reason "ocean front real estate" is "prime" is because of massive government subsidies. Prior to those, people avoided the ocean front because they would be regularly subject to storms and other natural disasters.

      It's interesting what straws you people grasp at to justify your crony capitalism.

    3. Re:national flood insurance by bradley13 · · Score: 2

      This. It's all about subsidized flood insurance. Without it, people would have to pay realistic rates for flood insurance, meaning that many properties would become worthless - as they should be.

      FWIW, here's the FEMA page about the flood insurance renewal. They write: "NFIP reauthorization is an opportunity for Congress to take bold steps to reduce the complexity of the program and strengthen the NFIP’s financial framework so that the program can continue helping individuals and communities take the critical step of securing flood insurance.".

      As usual, Congress is kicking the can down the road, with the next renewal date being November 30th. What are the chances that Congress will have the guts to not renew the program? There is just no reason for this program to exist - if you build in a flood zone, buy your own damned insurance. But not renewing the program would piss off lots of rich campaign donors, so...

      --
      Enjoy life! This is not a dress rehearsal.
  9. Costs to capital by manu0601 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is about the cost for capital, but sea level rise impact on the whole economy is likely to be much larger.

  10. Re:Why? Data doesn't support by Smidge204 · · Score: 2

    Nowhere in the article or summary does it mention anything about acceleration, or even comment on the rate of increase at all.

    Meanwhile the page you linked clearly shows a steady upward trend in tide height.
    =Smidge=

  11. Re:Why? Data doesn't support by careysub · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oddly enough this site you link to documents that sea levels are rising, and accelerating, most everywhere, except were post-glacial rebounding is occurring (the home page helpfully mentions this -- "glacial isostatic adjustment"). A single spot like Battery Park in Manhattan only shows that Battery Park in Manhattan is not showing the long term rise to be accelerating, perhaps due to local subsidence.

    --
    Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  12. Re:By The Same Token by jwhyche · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Funny. Lots of people are disagreeing with them but I can't find where they are shooting at anyone.

    --
    I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
  13. Re: Yes, but other property is increasing in value by BoogieChile · · Score: 5, Informative

    This house here? the one that's three kilometres inland and 150 METRES above sea level?

    Hmm...I wonder what he thinks is going to happen...

  14. Re:By The Same Token by Gojira+Shipi-Taro · · Score: 2

    Oh, fuck you. Everyone EVERYWHERE in the world is sitting on land that someone stole from someone else at some point in history. Nobody is living somewhere their family or clan has owned since the beginning of history.

    Period.

    Get over this "stolen land" shit.

    --
    "Oh my God. This is terrible. This is the end of my Presidency. I'm fucked."; ~ Donald J. Trump
  15. Re:By The Same Token by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 2

    Well, we've certainly no shortage of Internet Tough Guys...

    --
    Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
  16. Re: Yes, but other property is increasing in value by riverat1 · · Score: 2

    Al Gore recently (well, a few years ago...) purchased a fairly large beachfront home here in California. That's ONE of the reasons why I discount claims that the sea level will rise more than a few inches per century.

    I checked out that home on google maps and it's located at about 450 feet above sea level. I don't think sea level rise is going to cause any problems there for the foreseeable future.

  17. Re:Why? Data doesn't support by riverat1 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Battery Park in Manhattan shows effectively ZERO acceleration over the last 150 years or so, but I guess that's not an exciting Gloom And Doom headline...

    So Battery Park is a suitable proxy for sea level rise around the world? I think not. Meanwhile sea level measurements from satellites do show an acceleration in SLR.

  18. Re:By The Same Token by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Unless you're a native American, you have ZERO RIGHT to say SHIT about immigrants, because one way or another YOUR ancestors were immigrants.

    Since the "native Americans" came here from Siberia 20K or so years back (except the Eskimos, who came here much more recently), that would imply that there are NO "native Americans', since their ancestors were also immigrants.

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  19. The First Act by JimSadler · · Score: 2

    Yes, loss of value as well as much higher taxes are a consequence of rising seas. Your tax dollars have been supporting the alteration of military bases to cope with rising waters. Miami has a large expense already in the creation of pumping systems to keep the beach area from frequent flooding. What we are doing now should have been done 30 years ago when Al Gore made public the tragedy of rising seas. Now the second shoe will drop. As the building values drop the insurance companies will want to charge the same sums or even more for buildings that are now at half value due to threat of flooding. It also means that there will be no interest in taking new customers. Banks will not write mortgages due to flood risks which halts all new construction . As insurance companies pay out for losses the banks that own the insurance companies will become weaker. In much of Florida fresh drinking water will only occur if desalinization plants operate meaning water bills for home will sore enough to devalue existing homes and mansions. Population numbers will shift to higher areas causing all kinds of disruption and chaos. This issue is urgent beyond imagination and it is a huge enough problem that government will not be able to deal with it at all. Conservatives have effectively doomed this nation as we know it. With current sea levels it is unwise to be near any river or sea shore if a hurricane comes along. The chaos will be strongly amplified and God help us if a storm comes ashore at high tide. It will be tragic.

  20. Re:By The Same Token by jwhyche · · Score: 2

    Different topic. Rick implied that the Chinese are shooting anyone that disagrees with them over the south china sea islands. Which is clearly not the case.

    Shooting their own people, is a different matter and not what the Rick was wrongly implying.

    --
    I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
  21. Re:By The Same Token by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

    Nobody should be undocumented. There's libraries everywhere!

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  22. Re: By The Same Token by datavirtue · · Score: 2

    No but they are poking at the Japanese every day in the hopes that they will fuck up and fire on them. The Chinese government are true unabashed fucking assholes of the highest order. If you believe differently you should probably study up on current events. Start by looking at thier truly dystopian face tracking, social scoring nationwide surveillance system.

    --
    I object to power without constructive purpose. --Spock
  23. Re: By The Same Token by jwhyche · · Score: 2

    I don't believe any different. The chinese government is a problem and will have to be dealt with at some point. But we don't need to be making up stories or distorting facts to recognize this.

    The facts are this. They are trying to stake claims on south china sea, that they are not entitled too. They are provoking Japan and other neighbors in the region, thus affecting the stability of the region. They are oppressing many cultures within the boarder. The Chinese are spying on many nations, including the US.

    What they are not doing is shooting at every ship or plane that comes into the territory they are trying to claim. They may start doing that, but its doubtful.

    --
    I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.