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New Software Can Predict Landslides Weeks Before They Happen (smithsonianmag.com)

Posted by BeauHD on from the predicting-the-future dept.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Smithsonian: Australian researchers may have found a way to detect landslides as far as two weeks in advance, giving residents time to evacuate and engineers the opportunity to shore up slopes. Using AI and applied mathematics they've developed a software that can identify the subtle signs of an impending slide, signs that would be invisible to the naked eye. "Right now, a lot of the predictions [about where landslides will happen] are based on someone's gut instinct on the location," says Antoinette Tordesillas, a professor at the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Melbourne, who co-led the research. "We don't rely on gut instinct. We want to develop an objective method here." To develop the software, Tordesillas and her team used radar data from mining companies, which produce extremely detailed information of the surface movement of slopes. The team took the data and looked for patterns, eventually figuring out which networks of movements indicated unstable locations. They also used data from a landslide-prone Italian volcano to help develop the algorithm. The software can also incorporate data about other landslide risk factors, like rainfall and erosion, making the targeting even more precise. The data used for monitoring can come from radar based on the ground, on satellites or even in drones.

12 of 35 comments (clear)

  1. But can it not predict landslides by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 3, Interesting

    More important, though, is whether it can NOT predict landslides before they DON'T happen.

    low rate of false positives is also important

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:But can it not predict landslides by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      That is coming in Phase II of the 5 year research.

    2. Re: But can it not predict landslides by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      We already have monitoring, including wireless pressure and flow sensors and satellite imagery. But this is a new generation of people discovering neural networks so expect to see a lot of "amazing" progress. Next, someone will have software that predicts rainfall based on feeding a neural network.

    3. Re:But can it not predict landslides by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      More important, though, is whether it can NOT predict landslides before they DON'T happen.

      low rate of false positives is also important

      As of now, it can't do anything. The headline is absolutely false, the software has not predicted a single landslide. They are working on it and hope it eventually will.

    4. Re:But can it not predict landslides by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Actually, a wide range of can *not* predict landslides before they don't happen. This list includes (but isn't limited to):

      aircraft carriers

      dragonflies

      dingle-berries

  2. Total BS by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    There is already open source landslide detection software (one written by NASA). If these "researchers" would contribute to already existing solutions we would be much better off.

  3. Mudslide by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    Predicting Landslides has always been a challenge. Predicting Mudslides less so- just look for spikes in sales of Kahlua and Vodka in college towns.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  4. About time by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    So far every election day every politician and statistician is surprised by the way people vote.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  5. Oh, THOSE landslides... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    My first thought was of UNIVAC I. :)

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  6. So can I by OneHundredAndTen · · Score: 1

    The issue is, how accurately? Not very, in my case. This system, we do not know yet.

  7. Predicts them? Or causes them? by mark-t · · Score: 1

    (Conspiracy theories.... gotta love 'em)

    --
    File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
  8. Why do landslides happen? by reboot246 · · Score: 2

    Because even mountains need to get their rocks off every once in a while.