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Elon Musk Takes a Fatalistic View Toward AI (youtube.com)
Elon Musk sat down with California comedian Joe Rogan on Thursday evening for a 2 1/2-hour podcast [YouTube video] that touched upon everything from flamethrowers and artificial intelligence to the end of the universe. Talking about AI, a subject Musk has long been very vocal about, he said artificial intelligence could turn out to be terrible or it could end up being great, but one thing that is certain is that it will be beyond human's control. From a report: "You kind of have to be optimistic about the future. There's no point in being pessimistic," said the head of Tesla and SpaceX. "I rather be optimistic and wrong, than pessimistic and right. [...] It's not necessarily bad, but it's going to be outside of human control. It's going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon, said Musk. "It will be used as a weapon. The on ramp to serious AI will be more humans using it against eachother. That will be the danger."
Musk says he has tried to convince people to slow down where AI is concerned and regulate it, but nobody listened. "The way that regulation works is slow. Usually there will be some new technology that will cause damage or death, there will be an outcry, there will be an investigation," said the Tesla CEO. "Years will pass, there will be some insight committee, then rule making and oversight and eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things." Musk used the example that it took ten years for seatbelts to become required, even though the number of deaths were obvious. He says this time frame doesn't work for AI. "We can't wait ten years to the point where something is dangerous to do something about AI. It will be too late," said Musk.
Musk says he has tried to convince people to slow down where AI is concerned and regulate it, but nobody listened. "The way that regulation works is slow. Usually there will be some new technology that will cause damage or death, there will be an outcry, there will be an investigation," said the Tesla CEO. "Years will pass, there will be some insight committee, then rule making and oversight and eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things." Musk used the example that it took ten years for seatbelts to become required, even though the number of deaths were obvious. He says this time frame doesn't work for AI. "We can't wait ten years to the point where something is dangerous to do something about AI. It will be too late," said Musk.
Alternative headline: Joker and Joe Rogan sit down for cerebral masturbation.
Quite seriously, don't get me wrong, but wake me when we ever come up with something we call AI that deserves the name. Just because we know what intelligence is doesn't mean we have any idea how to do it.
Everyone knows what a saxophone is. If someone points at a saxophone, you'll be able to say that yes, this is a saxophone. But tasked with drawing one, completely, with all the valves and holes and everything in place, usually it would take someone who actually builds such things to do it right.
Our problem is that nobody has built intelligence yet, so there ain't anyone to ask. Yes, we all know what intelligence is like. We can point to it if we see it. But building one is a completely different beast.
And so far, we failed miserably at it.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Meanwhile, back in reality, Tesla is on a roll. They now make over half the world's EV battery capacity. Model 3 margins were positive in Q2 even without AWD and P, which are high-margin options. And despite the hype about "6000 per week", Tesla's actual production goal for this quarter is 50-55k, which is 4k per week average, which they're well on track for.
But on the other hand, the CEO took a half-arsed puff on a joint when offered, shook his head no, and talked about how he doesn't like pot because it hinders productivity. So I guess there's a balance, right?
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
Yes, but the chief accountant of the company also just stepped down. That's a bad look for a company with a questionable financial outlook and that has been facing a steady stream of high-level departures. I'm guessing that investors care far more about that than they do whether a Silicon Valley executive tried cannabis.