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The 'Post-PC Era' Never Really Happened... and Likely Won't (techpinions.com)
Mark Lowenstein, writing for Techpinions: As we head toward Apple's annual device announcement-palooza, it's an interesting exercise to consider where we are in Steve Jobs' vaunted, much quoted 'Post-PC Era.' The fact of the matter is, that era never fully arrived, and it doesn't look like it will, in the near- to medium- term future. [...] Tablets have had a good run, but sales have tailed off of late. I'd say they've had greater influence on the evolution of the smartphone and the PC, rather than leading to a significantly different nomenclature for what most of us carry around today. My Techpinions colleague Ben Bajarin says that Creative Strategies surveys indicate that only about 10% of tablet users have 'replaced their PC' -- a number that has held steady for several years. And that 10% is concentrated in a handful of industries, such as real estate and construction. PC sales aren't exactly surging, but they're steady. Your average white collar professional today still carries around a smartphone and a laptop, with the tablet being an ancillary device, used primarily for media/content consumption.
Tablets have had a significant influence on the design of smartphones and PCs. They ushered in an era of smartphone screen upsizing, led primarily by Samsung, and now reinforced by the iPhone X and the expected announcement next week of a 6.5 inch iPhone model. For those who don't want to swing both a smartphone and tablet, we have 'Phablets,' most personified in the successful Galaxy Note series, and alternative-to-keyboard input devices such as the S Pen and the Apple Pencil. We've also seen the development of some hybrid tablet/PC devices, the most innovative and successful of which is Microsoft's Surface line. But that product is competing more in the tablet category than in the PC category, with the exception of a few market segments.
Tablets have had a significant influence on the design of smartphones and PCs. They ushered in an era of smartphone screen upsizing, led primarily by Samsung, and now reinforced by the iPhone X and the expected announcement next week of a 6.5 inch iPhone model. For those who don't want to swing both a smartphone and tablet, we have 'Phablets,' most personified in the successful Galaxy Note series, and alternative-to-keyboard input devices such as the S Pen and the Apple Pencil. We've also seen the development of some hybrid tablet/PC devices, the most innovative and successful of which is Microsoft's Surface line. But that product is competing more in the tablet category than in the PC category, with the exception of a few market segments.
Smearing greasy prints on a screen, waving your shit around like an idiot, screaming at your word processor that you mean your, no, not yore, no not you're, no for fuck's sake!, or literally walking through a filesystem... All cute gimmicks that last about ten minutes.
And then you pull out the keyboard and get real work done.
Nobody has yet come up with a remotely serious idea that even has a chance at ousting the PC.
Tablets do not replace PCs and laptops. They just aren't as functional. Tablets are nice for reading and doing light work but for anything that requires real heavy-weight work, the PC reigns king.
... the big sucking sound for software is coming to close down PC's. We've seen huge gains by Vavle and the game industry to lock down PC's, couple that with smart phone games and emulators like nox and then top it off with windows 10. There is huge pressure to keep taking away control of the machine from end users largely because customers can't reach these companies to punch them in the nads for their theiverous practices. The internet has allowed companies to force policies on populations that don't want them through attrition (aka, are you not going to buy videogames forever if devs choose to release drm infested games?). The market is over and we're finally seeing our society enter a feudal like faze where capitalism is transforming itself into a new feudalism of serfs who have no rights to own the things they buy and lords you extract tribute through simply not being able to be reached by the peasants.
...is that devices specifically manufactured and marketed as tablets first and foremost are limited. They don't successfully replace all of the functions of a PC, in that the software written for them and the nature of how they're designed to interact with peripherals and with other systems is restricted. In some senses this can be a good thing, we don't have quite as many problems with poorly written software crashing the OS, but because of the walled-garden approach that both Android and Apple have taken, there's simply less functionality. On top of that, due to the battery-operated, portable nature of the devices, they don't do the CPU-intensive tasks as well as something designed to be plugged into the wall, or even something that carries a lot more mass in batteries.
In an ideal world, I would have a very small device that could interface to any screen and set of input devices that I so chose. It could serve as my phone, it could serve as my book reader, it could serve to watch movies, could serve as a portable computer for business functions, could serve as my full-featured desktop computer, depending on what set of peripherals I'm using with it. Unfortunately desktop computer operating systems don't do the mobile functions too well, and the mobile operating systems don't offer the freedom I need for desktop functions.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
Ok, so they both died in the process, but they won. Netscape with its "browser as a platform" strategy, and Sun with its "network computing" strategy, both failed to win their early battles against Microsoft, but in the end, the PC lost its place as "the" platform. Applications are now accessed over the Internet, and they can be accessed using any device. Applications locally installed on a Wintel machine are still around, but they're no longer the primary way we do most things with computers. Remember when you had to install a special Windows program to track a FedEx package? To log in to your bank? To do your taxes? That era is over. We're in the post-PC era now, and we've been there for quite some time now.
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Fool. The user is always supposed to have ultimate control over the device. Fuck off with your scare-mongering as an excuse for sloth and apathy. If a user refuses to learn, they deserve what they get. Dont bust out the golden shackles and try to tell me its jewelry.
Good-bye
I always saw tablets as expensive toys with limited uses, and to be fair they have legitimate uses, but as a replacement for a full-blown desktop computer or laptop? No. Too limited, too specialized. It's always been marketing hype like with anything else, trying to convince people their lives aren't complete unless they have such-and-such thing. Just like smartphones; you don't actually need it, a plain old phone would be just as good, but you want it, mainly because they convinced you you need it.
You know there's more to computing than games, right?
True, but for many users, there isn't more to local computing than games. I've gathered through conversation with other Internet users that many of them use only two categories of application: 1. web applications and 2. native games. They don't use any native non-game applications not shipped with a device's operating system. They could be satisfied with an Xbox One and a Chromebook.
I strongly agree with that. You still own your device. You can seize control of it at any time.
I like how Google has done this on the Chromebooks. You CAN put it in developer mode, if you want to. You still get to run Chrome OS (and Android). Yet the device is effectively rooted. You can install a Linux desktop (or several at once) via Crouton. And run all the untrusted code to your heart's content. (Tip: Since the "Downloads" folder is mapped to "Downloads" in each Linux desktop, put a lot of persistent stuff there, and then symlink it into each desktop Linux from where it is under "Downloads".)
In the mode I just described, you only get to run authorized code under Chrome OS and Android -- but you can run all your favorite untrusted code under Crouton. Or ignore Crouton. From the crosh shell you can simply type 'shell' and have root access.
Furthermore, for people who want to jump through even more hoops, you can replace the firmware. You can dual boot. Or you can simply wipe Chrome OS entirely and install Linux.
Finally, to people who say they want to have 100% control. Yes, you do. In principle. But in reality do I have 100% control? Unless I personally vet every single line of code, do I really know everything I'm executing in Ubuntu Unity, or Xfce? If I use the self-update features in Linux, do I really have 100% control any more than poor Microsoft schlobs?
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
Tablets have had a good run, but sales have tailed off of late.
That's because they ceased making them better. Almost every tablet I've seen is nothing more than a supersized smartphone and it runs more or less the exact same software. I haven't bought an iPad because it really does nothing for me that my iPhone doesn't do competently and if I need more computing power my PC will run rings around any tablet on the market. Tablet's exist in the space between smartphones and laptops which constrains them on both sides. They aren't as portable as smartphones and they aren't as powerful as PCs. To grow further they need to do offer something which neither smartphones or PCs can easily match.
What seems to be happening is that tablets are slowly becoming low end laptops rather than their own distinct type of device. It's not clear if this is a good thing or a bad thing but it does explain why they've plateaued.
Other problems include that the accessories for tablets tend to be complete afterthoughts. The keyboards, and covers and other periferals are not well integrated. Apple introduced the Apple Pencil which functions fine but lacks software support and has no physical integration with the device. You have to carry it separately rather than sliding it into a convenient holder where it gets charged when not in use.
To use a car analogy, it is similar to why we have sedans, SUV / minivans, and trucks.
Back in the '90s, the proverbial "killer app" to get everyone to buy a personal computer was The Internet. You needed your email and web surfing and the only way to do that was with a personal computer--despite some attempts to make it otherwise.
Which was great for companies that made personal computers. Because while you had competition, "a rising tide lifts all boats." Whether I buy a Dell, HP, Asus, or Toshiba, I'm still essentially buying the same thing. One might be "better" than the other, but these companies compete against each other for essentially the same thing.
The problem is that the tide is starting to go out. People aren't buying as many traditional personal computers. Phones are now personal computers--while it can only do about 50% of what a personal computer can do, it can do 100% of what most people want to do with their personal computer. The economies of scale that made the generic personal computer so successful are now threatened--the personal computer my Mom bought to surf the web is a 3 year-old version of the top-of-the-line computer that I bought to develop software when it first came out. But this time she bought a tablet--something different. The company that made that high-end computer can't move their costs down after a year or two for a wider audience because that market is fragmented.
In some ways, that means higher prices up front for the latest and greatest because they'll have a harder time selling last year's model. My Mom is no longer subsidizing my cheap hardware by buying the three year-old model of what I bought.
People aren't buying as many traditional personal computers.
While there is some truth to the idea that some activities are more convenient on a phone or tablet, I think the larger culprit in declining PC sales is their increased longevity. We are long past the point where the computational power of a PC has exceeded the needs of many users, where a new computer has no perceptible performance increase over a three year old computer for many users. Now granted I installed ample RAM in my 8 year old PC when I built it but it is still a useful machine, even for many video games with a video card upgrade every 2-3 years.
Phones are now personal computers--while it can only do about 50% of what a personal computer can do, it can do 100% of what most people want to do with their personal computer.
Perhaps "many" not "most". For longer endurance activities, outside of gaming, larger screens and real keyboards are more necessary. Phones and PCs will likely remain complementary devices, in the developed world people will likely continue to have both. Tablets and PCs, there we may have convergence, a "laptop" becoming a "dock" and a detachable "screen".
My Mom is no longer subsidizing my cheap hardware by buying the three year-old model of what I bought.
Similar story in my family. The "retired" folks who just wants email, Skype, web browsing and online shopping in moderate proportions is finding a tablet quite satisfactory. And this includes people who had used computers for many years at work.
But for people in school or still working, I think PCs will be hard to replace with tablets.