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Crypto Growth Nears 'Ceiling,' Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Says (bloomberg.com)

The days of explosive growth in the blockchain industry have likely come and gone now the average person is aware of its existence, according to Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum. From a report: "The blockchain space is getting to the point where there's a ceiling in sight," Buterin said in a Sept. 8 interview with Bloomberg at the Ethereum Industry Summit conference in Hong Kong. "If you talk to the average educated person at this point, they probably have heard of blockchain at least once. There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore." Growth in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the blockchain community through its first six or seven years was dependent on marketing and trying to get wider adoption, Buterin said. "That strategy is getting close to hitting a dead end," he said.

40 of 87 comments (clear)

  1. There's only so much weed to be smoked by rsilvergun · · Score: 4, Insightful

    and money to be laundered. Those two things form the backbone of the crypto economy because they're both things that have a high risk tolerance. You don't care if somebody doesn't pay you for your dime bag because you're selling a bag of literal weeds for $100 bucks. If 10 folks stiff you and one pays you're way out ahead. The same's true for generic money laundering. The money's no good if you can't use it cleanly and without being caught, so you don't care if you lose half of it to transaction fees.

    There's growing pressure to crack down on money laundering via bitcoin; mostly because governments have just plain caught up and caught on. And there's growing pressure to legalize drugs. There's where your ceiling is. A few more high profile money launderers will get caught (Bitcoin really isn't that good for it, it just took a while for the gov't to notice it was being used) and a few wins by left wing parties and that'll kind of be that when it comes to crypto.

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    1. Re:There's only so much weed to be smoked by gweihir · · Score: 1

      It will be interesting to see how much money laundering was really going on. I think it was quite a bit, but nobody seems to have hard data. I do expect some bright PhD student will wrest this info from the blockchain eventually, at least as a reasonable approximation.

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    2. Re:There's only so much weed to be smoked by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      You don't care if somebody doesn't pay you for your dime bag because you're selling a bag of literal weeds for $100 bucks. If 10 folks stiff you and one pays you're way out ahead.

      Try that shit on the street and see how it goes for you. Please report back, I could use a good laugh.

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  2. They are running out of idiots with money? by gweihir · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Was bound to happen eventually. This is the classic behavior of every pyramid scheme: At some time you have all the morons with money in there and do not find enough new ones. Then the whole thing comes crashing down.

    Will be interesting to see ho it happens here, because crypto currencies (not "crypto", _that_ is something else) are a bit differently structured than the classical pyramid schemes. They are fundamentally the same though.

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    1. Re:They are running out of idiots with money? by Moof123 · · Score: 2

      But I thought Bitcoin was supposed to be the new reserve currency?! Say it isn't so! Hodl man. Hodl.

    2. Re:They are running out of idiots with money? by supremebob · · Score: 1

      Umm... I think that "TEH CLOUD!" hype only started a decade ago. "TEH INTERWEBS!" hype over crap web companies like pets.com and mplayer.com is two decades old.

    3. Re:They are running out of idiots with money? by gweihir · · Score: 1

      And you are idiot with no insight. No implementation of a pyramid scheme is infinite. Seriously.

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    4. Re:They are running out of idiots with money? by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Well, to be fair the data-type used in bitcoin is finite in its resolution, it is just so fine-granular it does not matter. Same, incidentally, as any classical pyramid-scheme is finite, as there is only a finite amount of currency available. In both case, you can do a meaningless extension to the infinite, for classical pyramid by predicting that money can be printed (or electronically) in larger and larger volumes and for bitcoin by predicting a move to a representation of smaller sub-divisions. Both things do not make sense, except to those with absolutely no understanding of reality (like, for example, the crypto-currency believers).

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  3. Re:A Ceiling by gweihir · · Score: 5, Informative

    To be fair, anybody investing their student loan in crypto-currencies would probably not have benefited from an academic education anyways....

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  4. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  5. Idiots by Doc+Right · · Score: 1

    I swear, I'm surrounded by idiots. "Oh, it's a scam!" "No, it's a stock!" "It's a ponzi scheme!" --- Guys guys guys... It's just money. "Digital Cash." Powered by a novel idea. You don't invest in Euros like stocks, do you? You don't think about Pesos when buying Cheetos at an American 7-11, do you? Of course not. Then why are you trying to complicate Cryptocurrency? It's just "Digital Cash" for buying stuff on the Internet, when you don't want to mess with (or have access to) credit cards. Get out of this speculative investment mindset. See it for what it is, and what value that has. CASH.

    1. Re:Idiots by wed128 · · Score: 2

      Except it's not very good for that.Cash needs to have somewhat stable value -- so far there isn't a cryptocurrency that has that.

    2. Re:Idiots by supremebob · · Score: 1

      That's the big problem with cryptocurrency right now. In order for it to be used as a replacement for cash, it's value needs to become stable and it's transactions need to regulated for fraud protection.

      That said, nobody wants to invest in a cryptocurrency that doesn't increase in value and is regulated to the point where any limited gains that you do get from it are taxed by the IRS.

    3. Re:Idiots by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      Tether?

    4. Re:Idiots by mikeabbott420 · · Score: 1

      transaction processing is slow, limited in scope, unpredictable, and energy intensive. this limits the value of 'digital cash' as a transaction medium, leaving it to be used primarily as a speculative store of value.

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    5. Re:Idiots by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      Compared to "real cash"? The buying power of consumers have been going DOWN for decades now, all thanks to governments and their ability to print money.

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  6. Re:A Ceiling by perpenso · · Score: 1

    To be fair, anybody investing their student loan in crypto-currencies would probably not have benefited from an academic education anyways....

    You sure, isn't the "greater fool" theory likely covered in microeconomics 101?

  7. Ethereum under $200 by xack · · Score: 1

    Just hoping I can get an AMD RX680 cheap when they come out.

  8. Isn't he the guy by slickwillie · · Score: 1

    who traded most or all of his Etherium for a pizza or soerng? (Note - I haven't RTFA yet.)

  9. Room to grow with common usage by Phat_Tony · · Score: 2

    A cryptocurrency could go up a lot again if one becomes commonly used.

    Right now, a very small percentage of the population holds any cryptocurrency, and a tiny percentage of worldwide financial transactions are conducted in cryptocurrency.

    If this changed - if one became popular for financial transactions, where a lot of the population carried some device that could complete cryptocurrency transactions as easily as a credit card, and many or most businesses accepted cryptocurrency, than whatever currency wins that "common usage" battle still has a long way up. The price is just supply and demand, and large numbers of people acquiring some currency to use as currency = demand and would drive up the price further.

    I don't know when or if that would happen, but it's conceivable that a cryptocurrency could, at some point, become very easy to use and offer some advantage(s) over other currencies such that it was widely adopted for use as a general currency, which would cause at least one more run up in price for any currency that does that.

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    1. Re:Room to grow with common usage by timholman · · Score: 1

      Right now, a very small percentage of the population holds any cryptocurrency

      More accurately: "Right now, a very small percentage of the population holds all the available cryptocurrency." In a nutshell, that is why every cryptocurrency is doomed from the outset. The concentration of "wealth" in the hands of the crypto-elite would makes paupers and slaves of the rest of us, assuming the world was foolish enough to adopt one.

      Think about it: some dude living in a basement creates a cryptocurrency which by design is limited to a specific number of tokens, and for which he happens to own 10% to 40% of the entire worldwide supply. And then he says to the world, "Hey people, fight the banks! Fight the government! Become the new wealthy class, and use my cryptocoins as money!" How delusional does he have to be to believe that the truly wealthy people in this world will hand over their assets to him, just so they can conduct transactions in a cryptocurrency created by someone else, when they could just as easily create one of their own?

      The cryptocurrency craze is driven by people who are foolish enough to think that they will become the new wealthy class by "investing" their money in what is effectively a pyramid scheme. And the craze is manipulated by people who are laughing all the way to the bank as they separate the fools from their money.

      No cryptocurrency will ever gain any long-term traction so long as it is designed to make early adopters fabulously wealthy by default. The problem is that almost every cryptocurrency is designed precisely that way, because promising riches and power to those who get in on the ground floor is their main appeal - just as with any other pyramid scheme.

  10. Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 2

    I'm not trying to argue pro or con bitcoin here, but I'm surprised people on the comments here are no more informed that people on other popular social media platforms. I see a lot of, scam, drug, money laundering, fake money. People don't really seem to know the different between bitcoin and the other cryptos. Or the basic concept that holding bitcoin is using bitcoin (Ansel Lindner said that), it's use case isn't to buy coffee right now, it's more of a store of value, digital gold. Again I'm not trying to post this as pro or con, just the level of understand of this space isn't very high on slashdot

    1. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by James+Carnley · · Score: 1

      Slashdot was also very against the iPod and other major innovations. This website is ironically filled with Luddites.

    2. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by ArchieBunker · · Score: 1

      Haha I was going to bring up the iPod debut article. Everyone shitting on it saying nobody would buy that Apple is going to tank wtf are they thinking.

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    3. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 1

      It's comments like this where I don't think you're really seeing it for what it is and just looking at media click bait. I agree most cryptos are scams and have CEOs that can be shut down. I personally think only bitcoin has a store of value worth anything. There's no bubble, it's just some consolidation right now. I think the difference is I don't really think about price. Many people really like the decentralization, which has proven for bitcoin to be true (not ETH). For me what really clicked is the ability to clear money without trust. I think for some people the concept really clicks, for me it's not a get rich quick scam, it's something revolutionary. If you don't see it, there's not much I can say. I used to also think it was a scam or video game money at first as well. Most people who are very pro bitcoin also used to think it was a scam.

    4. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      Again I'm not trying to post this as pro or con, just the level of understand of this space isn't very high on slashdot

      I think the problem is that we understand it all too well.

      All scammers get irritated when the mark recognises the scam.

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    5. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 1

      No, I'd expect better reasons as to why bitcoin a scam. If you say the large community or original members who are telling you to invest in bitcoin is going to cash-out and leave, they would have done that 5+ years ago. I think most people agree that bitcoin has established some sort of value.

    6. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 1

      You have some of the best developers and cryptographers working on this platform, not scam artists. Along with VCs investing billions of dollars in this industry, I think we're past this point

    7. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by jwymanm · · Score: 1

      A lot of us are pro crypto currency but we get drowned out by the 500 comments from anonymous cowards and shill accounts stating how terrible it is. It's open source, it sends damn near instantly anywhere in the world (and with spacechain and eth outside of this world also), a lot of coins are distributed and exchanges are becoming distributed to avoid gov persecution. There are tons of new developments almost monthly and it's a lot of fun to go to the conferences which for the most part are jammed full (check out BOB in Chicago). It's fine. The bullshit will calm down as more and more cool advancements come and people realize some of the projects are for awesome communities (see Tezos) and not to feed corporations or corrupt governments. There are still opensource people here who can appreciate damn near every coin is opensource and cross platform.

    8. Re:Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoin by _merlin · · Score: 1

      And yet, the iPod in its original form is dead. The iPod as "your whole music library in your pocket" died as they moved to Flash-based iPods with less storage. Now the push is towards streaming where you don't even have a music library as such. The iPod was very successful for a while, but in the end Apple themselves killed it, not the market.

  11. Re: In other words, people have to actually use it by xtal · · Score: 1

    The first thing is for people to decide BTC has value. Weâ(TM)re there, I think.

    The second is to decide how much. Thatâ(TM)s being figured out now.

    Bitcoin enables technologies like the Lightning Network - which offers distributed micro payments, for the first time in history - and was a keen interest of a former fearless leader here, RobLimo.

    The shitcoins are indeed that, and there were a 1000 pets.com for every Amazon. BTC solves real problems and lets me pay for things like VPN services that would be a real headache, and let folks process payments from countries where banking systems are nonexistent.

    Wait until people realize they can monetize their content directly without the ads.. and youâ(TM)ll see some interesting things happen.

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  12. Re: A riddle by xtal · · Score: 1

    Show me a exchange medium that has the payment clearinghouse built in.

    I canâ(TM)t instantly send .001g of gold to someone in africa. Or anything else, for that matter.

    --
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  13. Re:A Ceiling by gweihir · · Score: 1

    It should be. But the Greater Fool Theory is pretty obvious and easily researched, so I doubt these people will understand that they are following it even if taught about it academically. And only a faction will have gotten those loans for studies in economics. Educational success depends on some base level common-sense, insight and understanding of self being there, otherwise it does not work.

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  14. Re: In other words, people have to actually use it by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    Wait until people realize they can monetize their content directly without the ads.. and youâ(TM)ll see some interesting things happen.

    And this is where the smaller coins like Dogecoin, Reddcoin and Digibyte will shine. They'll probably never reach a value of $10K per coin, but $1 to $100 per coin might be possible since they're all divisible to 8 decimals just like Bitcoin.

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  15. Damn You S-Curve!!!!! by gerald.edward.butler · · Score: 1

    When will we ever learn that "Exponential Growth" cannot, and does not, continue indefinitely. Oh, that's right, I forgot, we have an entire economic and investment fantasy constructed on the premise that unlimited exponential growth is feasible. I guess they never went through the "bunnies" thought exercise in biology/ecology class.

  16. Re:A Ceiling by gweihir · · Score: 1

    Common sense is successfully applied intelligence for plausibility checking, no cultural aspect. As to scam artists, have a look into the world and you see scams everywhere. You are probably just blind to them or naive.

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  17. Re: Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoi by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 1

    I have no advice to give, I'm just surprised of how many people are anti-bitcoin on a tech site.

  18. Re: Interesting slashdot people are not pro-bitcoi by TrustYourAssets · · Score: 1

    Most of the people early on in bitcoin haven't gone anywhere.

  19. Re: Dogecoin disagrees by nickovs · · Score: 1

    Boring Company started that way too.

    Yup, but they are going to have a hard time going to the moon.

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  20. Not even close by themusicgod1 · · Score: 1

    Half of humanity isn't even on the internet yet. Only a minority of internet users use cryptocurrency, and of the ones that do, many don't use it for very much that's substantial in their lives. We've got at *least* another doubling of value to go.
    One way to get to the next billion would be, oh I don't know, a working ethereum client in debian .

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