Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt Predicts the Internet Will Split in Two By 2028 -- and One Part Will Be Led By China (yahoo.com)

Speaking at a private event in San Francisco this week, Eric Schmidt said he believes within the next decade there will be two distinct internets: one led by the U.S. and the other by China. At the event, economist Tyler Cowen asked, "What are the chances that the internet fragments over the years?" To which former Google CEO said: I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America. If you look at China, and I was just there, the scale of the companies that are being built, the services being built, the wealth that is being created is phenomenal. Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage of the US, which is also a big number. If you think of China as like 'Oh yeah, they're good with the Internet,' you're missing the point.

Globalization means that they get to play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and services comes a different leadership regime from government, with censorship, controls, etc. Look at the way BRI works -- their Belt and Road Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries -- it's perfectly possible those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some loss of freedom.

Comments

Web 3.0

[pecosdave]

In a decade you won't even have to be on the "web proper" to be networked in.

Once you get proper Web 3.0 decentralized networks running - like the Akasha beta you don't need web proper. All you need to be is attached to another node, even without web-proper access and you can communicate anywhere. I hope to see neighborhood mesh networks be it WiFi or cable-over-the-fence networks, as long as you've got a machine or two somewhere connected to the web then you've got worldwide communication going. Once we figure out how to make IPFS have some reasonable naming systems the old-school web will matter less and less.

BRI itself is fragmenting

[SuperKendall]

The whole Belt and Road initiative is running into some problems, receiving a lot of pushback from many countries that are realizing it's no picnic to be controlled by China.

Re:Political Nonsense

[TigerPlish]

Bullshit

Don't underestimate the adversary. China's aggressively expanding their sphere of influence in Asia and Africa. Do you not see that?

If you do see that, do you not see that they'll do the same in the internet? Do you want a 'net dominated by Chinese companies, Chinese ethics, Chinese censorship?

I don't want this. I think China has an axe to grind with the US, and they'll do whatever they can to undermine our commerce -- like they have been doing in the past few decades.

Re:Doesn't China essentially have their own alread

[Austerity Empowers]

You note that he said the Chinese internet versus the American internet, which is arguable but probably effectively true. That's two (big) countries that comprise about 25% of the world's population. The rest of the world has to decide what to do.

China is obvious: don't insult pooh bear, don't contradict the government, don't stir up dissent, don't rock the boat, be good happy citizen in harmonious society. America lets you say anything you want: but don't fuck with corporate interests particularly with IP, you will be thrown in jail just as quickly.

So the question is what does the the remaining 75% of the world use? They will probably pick and choose. They will probably get their entertainment and software from the Chinese internet. They will probably get their social, and their porn from the "American" internet. The question is where will they get their drugs and mutually agreed upon contraband...