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Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt Predicts the Internet Will Split in Two By 2028 -- and One Part Will Be Led By China (yahoo.com)
Speaking at a private event in San Francisco this week, Eric Schmidt said he believes within the next decade there will be two distinct internets: one led by the U.S. and the other by China. At the event, economist Tyler Cowen asked, "What are the chances that the internet fragments over the years?" To which former Google CEO said: I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America. If you look at China, and I was just there, the scale of the companies that are being built, the services being built, the wealth that is being created is phenomenal. Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage of the US, which is also a big number. If you think of China as like 'Oh yeah, they're good with the Internet,' you're missing the point.
Globalization means that they get to play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and services comes a different leadership regime from government, with censorship, controls, etc. Look at the way BRI works -- their Belt and Road Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries -- it's perfectly possible those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some loss of freedom.
Globalization means that they get to play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and services comes a different leadership regime from government, with censorship, controls, etc. Look at the way BRI works -- their Belt and Road Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries -- it's perfectly possible those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some loss of freedom.
In a decade you won't even have to be on the "web proper" to be networked in.
Once you get proper Web 3.0 decentralized networks running - like the Akasha beta you don't need web proper. All you need to be is attached to another node, even without web-proper access and you can communicate anywhere. I hope to see neighborhood mesh networks be it WiFi or cable-over-the-fence networks, as long as you've got a machine or two somewhere connected to the web then you've got worldwide communication going. Once we figure out how to make IPFS have some reasonable naming systems the old-school web will matter less and less.
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The whole Belt and Road initiative is running into some problems, receiving a lot of pushback from many countries that are realizing it's no picnic to be controlled by China.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
America too. If it can't stop murdering people of color, and punishing asylum seekers by torturing their children, it shouldn't be on the Internet.
Or... hear me out here... maybe your idea is fucking stupid and that cutting China off from a resource that provides more freedom to its citizens while giving the government jack shit isn't a bad thing.
You would cut off also people. Why do you want to puhish them for their goverment. Do reverse - free education via internet - will widen their horizons and give them motivation to change something.
China is effectively already its own internet. The EU seems to be doing everything they can to follow their lead. There are several smaller nations already doing the same thing.
Bullshit
Don't underestimate the adversary. China's aggressively expanding their sphere of influence in Asia and Africa. Do you not see that?
If you do see that, do you not see that they'll do the same in the internet? Do you want a 'net dominated by Chinese companies, Chinese ethics, Chinese censorship?
I don't want this. I think China has an axe to grind with the US, and they'll do whatever they can to undermine our commerce -- like they have been doing in the past few decades.
The "Civilized World" jumped the shark ca. 1973.
You note that he said the Chinese internet versus the American internet, which is arguable but probably effectively true. That's two (big) countries that comprise about 25% of the world's population. The rest of the world has to decide what to do.
China is obvious: don't insult pooh bear, don't contradict the government, don't stir up dissent, don't rock the boat, be good happy citizen in harmonious society. America lets you say anything you want: but don't fuck with corporate interests particularly with IP, you will be thrown in jail just as quickly.
So the question is what does the the remaining 75% of the world use? They will probably pick and choose. They will probably get their entertainment and software from the Chinese internet. They will probably get their social, and their porn from the "American" internet. The question is where will they get their drugs and mutually agreed upon contraband...
I fear for the worst. There's a lot of flippant accusations about surveilance and censorship of the rest of the world in the Chinese internet, but more than anything it's about keeping America's slimy, spying, sabotaging tentacles out of there, which is sensible.
The problem with America is that they're growing increasingly paranoid and consider all the other countries to be enemies, and have even committed hostile actions, subversion and sabotage against European networks, of everything. Chine on the other hand done or stated anything to that extent, and always said that cooperation is the only way forward.
Worth taking into account when you consider what side you'd like to be on.
There's nothing in here about the Internet "splitting". All it amounts to is that China is already using the Internet a lot and most Americans know nothing about it because they can't read Chinese. They are going to use their own sites and services instead of running to use companies like Google.
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you're missing the point, the USA has even bigger body count doing evil than China, and supports a theocracy that engages in systematic oppression and genocide.
I assume you have data to back this up? Mao was responsible for ~45 million deaths. What did the US do to achieve that number?
I think it's supposed to be an obtuse reference to Ewan McGregor/Charley Boorman "Long Way Round" and "Long Way Down".
In reality China explored & traded as far west as Egypt and Ethiopia. They met Buddhists and Muslims, and carried their belief systems back home.
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall