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Japanese Company Announces Long-Term Plan To Develop the Moon (arstechnica.com)
"On Wednesday, a Japanese company called ispace announced that it has two missions planned to the Moon within the next three years and that it has acquired ride-share launches on two Falcon 9 rockets to carry out those flights," reports Ars Technica. "The company's founder, Takeshi Hakamada, also said he has a long-term vision to have a city on the Moon visited by 10,000 people a year by 2040." From the report: The two missions ispace announced Wednesday are an orbiter launch in mid-2020 and a more complicated lander-and-rover mission a year later. Both will be secondary payloads on Falcon 9 rocket launches, being released by the rocket's second stage in geostationary transfer orbit. From there, they will proceed to the Moon under their own propulsive power.
During a teleconference with several reporters, Hakamada said the company hopes to demonstrate to potential customers the initial capability to deliver 30kg of payload to the lunar surface. But he also has longer-term plans that will allow it to serve customers seeking to reach the lunar surface with larger payloads. Plus, the company is developing the capability to mine ice from the lunar poles to convert the hydrogen and oxygen into rocket fuel. "Around 2030 we expect to begin developing propellant and sending it to spacecraft in space," Hakamada said. He hopes that by then, there will be several hundred people working on the Moon, or in lunar orbit, to support an industrial base. A decade later, by 2040, he envisions a city called "Moon Valley" on the lunar surface, with a diverse array of industries and thousands of visitors per year. "We believe we can establish such a world if we can actively develop our capability in the current speed," Hakamada said.
During a teleconference with several reporters, Hakamada said the company hopes to demonstrate to potential customers the initial capability to deliver 30kg of payload to the lunar surface. But he also has longer-term plans that will allow it to serve customers seeking to reach the lunar surface with larger payloads. Plus, the company is developing the capability to mine ice from the lunar poles to convert the hydrogen and oxygen into rocket fuel. "Around 2030 we expect to begin developing propellant and sending it to spacecraft in space," Hakamada said. He hopes that by then, there will be several hundred people working on the Moon, or in lunar orbit, to support an industrial base. A decade later, by 2040, he envisions a city called "Moon Valley" on the lunar surface, with a diverse array of industries and thousands of visitors per year. "We believe we can establish such a world if we can actively develop our capability in the current speed," Hakamada said.
Artifical atmosphere, radiation resistant clothing and building materials, artificial magnetic fields.
The problem is not the physical building tech, and I'll pretend like money isn't the problem either. The problem is energy generation. Assuming they use some sort of nuclear power, they have to transport that there, and its not like nuclear is magic energy, most of the high conversion stuff is steam driven, which means a good portion of the water will be used for this. Radioisotope systems are not super powerful or large, and fission systems aren't that efficient (not to mention dirty if there's a problem).
Answer is of course solar or something like this, but with current rocket turnaround time (even you SpaceX) it would take years to build up the required amount of solar panels to support a colony of > 500 people. Not to mention getting the things there to build it in the first place (robots? humans? if humans, how do they live long enough to build a solar array to power their life support? small reactors launched ahead of time?)
I'm not even thinking yet about required food supplies for that many people, or how large of a space would be required for moon grown plants or infrastrucutre and minerals water to keep them growing and etc)
I'd love to see this by 2040. I just think its wishful thinking. Humanity is just too slow for that to happen.
How We Could Build a Moon Base TODAY
https://youtu.be/NtQkz0aRDe8
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
At about >1 MeV the half value layer of many rocks is in the between 10 and 20 cm , so by 10 half value layer (about 1 to 2 meter) of earth rocks , you get 1/1024 of the original radiation. 1 meter or so is not far far underground. See for example El-Taher, Mahmour, Abbady 2007 (Indian journal pure and applied physic).
OK regolithe is about 60% the density of what they tested but even assuming an exponential model or even go conservative and have the HVL to be 1 meter (!), you still won't need to be that far underground to get only 0.1% of the radiation.
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
visit randi.org
We need to use resources and funds to go forward on earth preservation, not to go destroying moon (neither mars...).
Many new technologies were born of the space race. If we have to set up self-sustaining colonies there's no telling what we will learn about sustainability; if we can make a colony on the Moon produce everything it needs then a city on Earth will be child's play by comparison.