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For Now, at Least, the World Isn't Making Enough Batteries (bloomberg.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: Evidence of the battery-powered era is all around us. Electric vehicles are cruising down our freeways. Household appliances thrum with stored solar energy that was until recently a daytime-only power source. Governments from California to China and South Korea -- even Donald Trump's Washington -- have taken steps that will make battery power more ubiquitous. There's just one hitch to this battery boom: The world isn't making nearly enough. All of the new demand from North America, Europe and Asia is constrained at the moment by a market that remains heavily dependent on a few producers. Data on the global supply of batteries is hard to come by, but close observers of the industry have noticed evidence of the shortfall. "We've never seen such demand," said Yayoi Sekine, a New York-based analyst at Bloomberg NEF. "But the supply is struggling to keep up."
Oddly, however, lithium-ion battery-rack prices have continued their annual decline, even in the face of constrained supply and expectations of ever-growing demand. To get a clear sense of the near future, consider battery-powered cars: Today, there are more than 3 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide; by 2025, Volkswagen AG alone plans to build as many as 3 million electric vehicles per year. Those vehicle batteries -- in addition to storage batteries for homes, businesses and utilities -- will have to come from somewhere.
Oddly, however, lithium-ion battery-rack prices have continued their annual decline, even in the face of constrained supply and expectations of ever-growing demand. To get a clear sense of the near future, consider battery-powered cars: Today, there are more than 3 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide; by 2025, Volkswagen AG alone plans to build as many as 3 million electric vehicles per year. Those vehicle batteries -- in addition to storage batteries for homes, businesses and utilities -- will have to come from somewhere.
Someone should make a massive battery factory to profit off of this problem!
One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
One of the benefits, is that you don't need to replace batteries at all.
Among other benefits.
http://progressquest.com/spoltog.php?name=Son+Of+Son+Of+DarkRookie
At 130$ /kWh there is demand for 300,000 units of 75 kWh batteris, may be a little more or little less. Model 3
At 160$ /kWh there is demand for just 25,000 units, (Bolt)
At 200$ /kWh there is demand for just 0 batteries. no one would buy it at that price
At 100$/kWh there will be demand for about 3 million units of 75 kWh a year. Tesla's projection of breakeven price between BEV and ICEV
At 80$/kWh there will be demand for something like 30 million units of 75 kWh battery packs a year or even more.
At 50$ /kWh the whole world will run solar and wind. We can store two or three days electricity usage of the whole world at affordable prices.
Moore' Law for batteries, is a 7 year half life. Energy density doubles and price halves every seven years for battery packs. Right now Tesla is at 130$ /kWh. In 7 years it will be at 65$/kWh. In 14 years, @ 32$ /kWh we are possibly looking at the greatest disruption the energy sector has seen since the switch from whale oil to coal, from coal to petroleum.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Now the limit on electric cars is cobalt for lithium-ion batteries. Until some clever person develops zinc-air batteries or carbon nanotube batteries or something even better. One way or the other, electric cars are coming.
Support Right To Repair Legislation.
Not exactly. They were making the point that even an administration hostile to renewable energy still acknowledges the issue.
I might be interested for 5-10 cents per kwh and 400+ miles range.
The problem is that where I live, it is 28+ cents per Kwh, usage based, price goes up with usage, and we have vulnerable, limited capacity wires.
Yeah I believe them. They would never lie to us. /end sarcasm
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
Dude, we are making them.
Maybe you fail to realize that the entire West Coast is going to 100-120 percent Renewables. And, yes, we're using those batteries.
Wake me when you guys stop whining and start doing. We're most of North America's economy.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
batteries still got a ways to go.
[($)]
Apple Inc in 1997 had money losing ugly computers.
Not compared to anyone else...
If you look at this timeline of Apple computer models in that time period (say 1995-1999), Apple was the ONLY computer company NOT making computers utterly devoid of style.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ...That is, except for the MANY others that were essentially COPYING Apple's case-designs...
Apple Inc in 1997 had money losing ugly computers. It was close to bankruptcy and Steve Jobs' personality made Donald Trump look like a saint. The con artist Jobs convinced stupid Bill Gates to give him money. If you shorted $50,000 of Apple in 1997 you would now need about $22,500,000 to buy it back. I've loved driving my Tesla for the past 3 years. It has not had any significant issues and has been a total joy.
Glad you like your Tesla, but the previous poster, while rude and somewhat based on the wrong things, is correct in his analysis. Tesla is rapidly falling deeper and deeper into trouble and has a lot of reasons it's not going to make it and very few reasons to think it will. Shorting Tesla is a good plan in my view and if the original poster is telling the truth about his trades, he's got results to prove it.
Your example of Apple, fits the model, their stock price took a beating. Funny you should pick 97, clearly that was it's low point. Had you shorted Apple back in 95, you could have made money covering in 97. Again, in 2000 you could have shorted at $4/share and make $3/share within a year. But hindsight is 20/20. Personally, I think we are in a similar cycle with Tesla, It's on the way down, until they can meet their performance numbers and get their Model 3 production rolling, if they ever can. Maybe if they survive the coming dark days it will be a value buy and hold play, but right now, It's a high risk volatile stock suitable for day traders and "true believers" who want to ride out the storm.
It's not that I'm opposed to other's investing in Tesla. Just understand that it's way overpriced P/E wise (it's loosing money still, even if you add back in the R&D costs) and there is absolutely zero reason to support a $300+ stock price beyond the personality cult of Musk. If they miss their next Q's numbers again, it's going to be bloody, but if they meet their numbers, I don't see much in the way of an upturn in price. They are going to need to show a profit here and soon, or it doesn't seem to be much that can push the price up.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
"Governments from California to China and South Korea -- even Donald Trump's Washington"
Why this and not simply "Governments from California to China and South Korea and even the US Federal Government"
This extreme bias is persistent and spreading.
Calm down!
We're not laughing at him, we're laughing with him!
Donald Trump is just one guy not all of Washington. The EPA is not "Donald Trumps Administration", it is the EPA. The department of highway safety is not "the Trump administration", etc. These are government agencies and the US government is the US government not Donald Trump.
As for battery shortages, batteries don't care about whether the power charging them came from a coal plant or not. There is nothing renewable about the electric cars and other portable and mobile devices requiring batteries. Most renewable installations are grid tied, the power running your solar house at night might well be coming from a coal powered plant.
Range of gas/diesel cars has historically grown to save you driving to a gas station every day or every few days. But what if you live next to a gas station, or in the case of electric vehicles, your house is the electric charge point?
We have gotten used to plugging in our smartphones into a charger every night, didn't we? Treat your car like a smartphone and you only need 1 day of electric range, plus a bit extra for that small road deviation.
A smaller battery is cheaper, and lighter, so your car and its brakes can be lighter too, making it cheaper once more. And suddenly the world does not need that many batteries.
When we switch to a pony based economy, we will go back to using whale oil.
That largely depends on the relationship that Hasbro chooses to have with its fans.
Donald Trump is just one guy not all of Washington. The EPA is not "Donald Trumps Administration", it is the EPA.
It is the standard convention that you refer to departments of the government as "President's agency" or even the "President agency ." If you find this to be difficult to grasp, perhaps political debate is not for you.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
where is the cobalt (a conflict resource) coming from? where's the lithium coming from? and how's the recycling coming along? also, do we have enough copper to supply absolutely everyone currently owning a car with their own personal 2 tonne electric vehicle? and what's the environmental cost of neodymium refining? https://www.theguardian.com/en...
In today's world, it costs a lot to raise batteries. Anodes and cathodes are thus waiting until they're older, while also having less batteries in total.
Range of gas/diesel cars has historically grown to save you driving to a gas station every day or every few days.
Within the constraint of being able to make cross-country trips without long pauses for refueling.
Because battery charging, even when blazingly fast with recent cell types, is still longer than a human-maintenance pit stop, they don't do well on long trips. So they need to have larger range than a fuel car or they are limited to a subset of the service types and you need two vehicles.
For instance: With something close to 300 miles of range an electric in Silicon Valley could handle both commutes and weekend excursions to Tahoe-area ski resorts or Reno-area entertainment and gaming, with a safety margin for contingencies like getting stuck in traffic jams during foul mountain weather. Under 250 miles of range and forget it.
(Don't say "rent something else for those non-commute trips". The time and hassle comes out of the precious vacation time, the cost from the budget, a breakdown is more likely and kills the vacation, and it leaves you driving a strange vehicle, a safety issue. You might consider that for a two-week vacation. But it kills weekenders, which is a drastic drop in quality of life.)
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
For instance: With something close to 300 miles of range an electric in Silicon Valley could handle both commutes and weekend excursions...
Los Angels - Las Vegas similarly, with a minimum of 350 miles range.
SF - LA is nearly 400 miles (383.1 center-to-center), the cities are spread out and the traffic is snared at both ends. So you need about 500 mile range for an electric to be practical for trips between them.
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
* reign in expansion and generate a profit to pay down some of their debt, or
* continue ramping volume without ramping general expenses at the same scale.
Otherwise they're in for a world of hurt - or going to need a big cash injection.
You start everyday with a full tank. You are saving 10 min every week by not filling up at the gas station. The time you save is what you spend on trips
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
In the world, I mean
Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
But you then have to waste an hour or two recharging your vehicle every time you go on a weekend trip that even slightly exceeds your range. Sounds like you aren't really 'saving' any time.
Credibility of a punter who doesn't know loose from lose is low. No offense, you probably got a piss-poor education.
So, do you have a salient point to make or are you simply going to correct my grammar?
I think you are just trying to make yourself feel good because you lack a positive self image, but my college degree is in engineering so I'm obviously not qualified to judge your addled state of mind.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
It really is. There's a reason that 'The [president]'s administration' is a common term. The president appoints a large number of officials that head important government agencies, and once a new president takes office one of the first things they do is set about expelling everyone who might be loyal to the last president or their policies and replace them with people who are loyal to the new president and their policies. These people in turn hurry to replace lower level administrators with people more sympathetic to the new regime. True, Trump does not head the EPA... but he personally selected the person who does. When the president changes, management of a large part of the federal government changes soon after.