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Is Quantum Computing Impossible? (ieee.org)

"Quantum computing is complex and it's not all it's cracked up to be," writes Slashdot reader nickwinlund77, pointing to this new article from IEEE Spectrum arguing it's "not in our foreseeable future": Having spent decades conducting research in quantum and condensed-matter physics, I've developed my very pessimistic view. It's based on an understanding of the gargantuan technical challenges that would have to be overcome to ever make quantum computing work.... Experts estimate that the number of qubits needed for a useful quantum computer, one that could compete with your laptop in solving certain kinds of interesting problems, is between 1,000 and 100,000. So the number of continuous parameters describing the state of such a useful quantum computer at any given moment must be at least 2**1,000, which is to say about 10**300. That's a very big number indeed. How big? It is much, much greater than the number of subatomic particles in the observable universe. To repeat: A useful quantum computer needs to process a set of continuous parameters that is larger than the number of subatomic particles in the observable universe. At this point in a description of a possible future technology, a hardheaded engineer loses interest....

[I]t's absolutely unimaginable how to keep errors under control for the 10300 continuous parameters that must be processed by a useful quantum computer. Yet quantum-computing theorists have succeeded in convincing the general public that this is feasible.... Even without considering these impossibly large numbers, it's sobering that no one has yet figured out how to combine many physical qubits into a smaller number of logical qubits that can compute something useful. And it's not like this hasn't long been a key goal.... On the hardware front, advanced research is under way, with a 49-qubit chip (Intel), a 50-qubit chip (IBM), and a 72-qubit chip (Google) having recently been fabricated and studied. The eventual outcome of this activity is not entirely clear, especially because these companies have not revealed the details of their work...

I believe that, appearances to the contrary, the quantum computing fervor is nearing its end. That's because a few decades is the maximum lifetime of any big bubble in technology or science. After a certain period, too many unfulfilled promises have been made, and anyone who has been following the topic starts to get annoyed by further announcements of impending breakthroughs. What's more, by that time all the tenured faculty positions in the field are already occupied. The proponents have grown older and less zealous, while the younger generation seeks something completely new and more likely to succeed.

He advises quantum computing researchers to follow the advice of IBM physicist Rolf Landauer. Decades ago Landauer warned quantum computing's proponents that they needed a disclaimer in all of their publications.

"This scheme, like all other schemes for quantum computation, relies on speculative technology, does not in its current form take into account all possible sources of noise, unreliability and manufacturing error, and probably will not work."

222 comments

  1. Yes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes.

    1. Re: Yes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ha maybe in the future, but not likely in the way that has been predicted in the past. I could be wrong.

    2. Re: Yes by ememisya · · Score: 1

      pulls down blinds "We're closed, go home! No more quantum!"

    3. Re: Yes by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Ha maybe in the future, but not likely in the way that has been predicted in the past. I could be wrong.

      Quantum computing will be simultaneously possible in the future and impossible in the future.

    4. Re: Yes by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 1

      "Don't you understand English you arse, we're not at home!".

    5. Re: Yes by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      My pub is my home
      And the other pub is my living room!

      You insensitive clod!

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    6. Re:Yes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes and No.

  2. Simple answer by Ukab+the+Great · · Score: 5, Funny

    Quantum computing is simultaneously both possible and impossible.

    1. Re:Simple answer by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

      Quantum computing is simultaneously both possible and impossible.

      It was possible, the last time I looked. Then I looked again, and it wasn't.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    2. Re: Simple answer by Presence+Eternal · · Score: 4, Funny

      It is good to see people thinking outside of the box.

      The cat keeps distracting them.

    3. Re:Simple answer by msauve · · Score: 5, Funny

      Wave if you're a particle!

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    4. Re:Simple answer by Trogre · · Score: 1

      Quick, somebody measure it!

      --
      "Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
    5. Re:Simple answer by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Yep. You can use it crack certain cryptography problems faster; problem though, the algorithm scales differently and doubling the key size makes it much harder to crack. Whereas, using traditional brute force on regular computers, doubling the key size only helps a little bit. So 32 bit encryption will eventually fall to quantum computers.

      But even 128 bit keys, it doesn't look promising to crack more than a tiny volume of stuff, even in hundreds of years.

      It will be valuable to certain areas of scientific research though, I'm sure. But don't expect to see it in the datacenter. And use 256 bit keys.

    6. Re: Simple answer by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      If we could get people to think inside the box, we could let the cat go.

    7. Re:Simple answer by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 2

      You can use it crack certain cryptography problems faster;

      One in particular: That maths wonks are running out of excuses to design new algorithms. There's only so many zero-knowlege group key management IND-CCA blind signcryption schemes you can publish before people fall asleep. By coming up with this unicorn-magic break-all-existing-algorithms space-alien wish-fulfilment technology, said maths wonks get another ten to twenty years of publishing papers on algorithms resistant to unicorns, magic, sharks with lasers, and so on. That's why there's so much concern about post-unicorn cryptography... uhh, sorry, quantum, it's addressing an academic publication problem, not an actual real-world threat.

    8. Re:Simple answer by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the more precisely the possibilitness is determined, the less precisely the impossibilitness can be known, and vice versa

      --
      Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
    9. Re: Simple answer by HotNeedleOfInquiry · · Score: 1

      I see what you did here...

      --
      "Eve of Destruction", it's not just for old hippies anymore...
    10. Re:Simple answer by glenebob · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yep. You can use it crack certain cryptography problems faster; problem though, the algorithm scales differently and doubling the key size makes it much harder to crack. Whereas, using traditional brute force on regular computers, doubling the key size only helps a little bit.

      Is it opposite day? I must have missed the tweet.

    11. Re:Simple answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, the thing with encryption algorithms is still that the problem isn't in the encryption itself.
      Quantum computing have been known about for a while and modern encryption algorithms have taken that into consideration.

      Unfortunately you still rely on pre-shared keys for some sort of protection. Otherwise a MitM can fake being both the one you want to talk to and the authentication server.

      We still can't really make self-booting systems that are encrypted since the system must to have everything needed to decrypt the disk available.

      Once a secure communication link have been established it is fairly secure, but getting there is still problematic.

    12. Re: Simple answer by David_Hart · · Score: 1

      If we could get people to think inside the box, we could let the cat go.

      And that's why I hate Black Friday.... I'm traumatized by the possibility of finding a cat in my Amazon boxes....

    13. Re:Simple answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doubling the key size of a O(N^2) cracking process doubles the execution time on a traditional computer. Doubling the key size of a O(Log(N)) quantum cracking process requires at least double the qbit size of the hardware.

      So, given a sufficiently big quantum computer, doubling the key size barely slows the algorithm, but since the current quantum hardware manufacture is not at all reliable beyond the "extremely small" size of quantum computer, it is easy to exceed the workable size of actual quantum computers.

    14. Re:Simple answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, error in the first line, adding another bit in a O(N^2) doubles the time. However, adding one qbit-worth beyond current quantum builds does make the quantum cracking impossible.

    15. Re:Simple answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It was possible...until you looked.

    16. Re:Simple answer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Quantum computing is simultaneously both possible and impossible.

      Or ended up only working in a parallel universe. THEY have flying cars and Mr. Fusion because of it, and we don't.

    17. Re: Simple answer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      The cat keeps distracting them.

      Because half of it smells really rotten.

  3. I see Quantum Computing every day by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Funny

    I can't be the only one here that goes to look for a bug that vanishes when I am doing any kind of problem.

    Now THAT is Quantum Computing.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:I see Quantum Computing every day by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      No, but it ISN'T called debugging, either. ;)

    2. Re:I see Quantum Computing every day by complete+loony · · Score: 3, Funny

      I can't be the only one here that goes to look for a bug that vanishes when I am doing any kind of problem.

      Now THAT is Quantum Computing.

      Nah, that's a heisenbug.

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
    3. Re:I see Quantum Computing every day by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Nah, that's a heisenbug.

      A heisenbug can be located in the code, or its performance impact measured, but never both at once

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    4. Re:I see Quantum Computing every day by fleabay · · Score: 1

      You're God damn right.

    5. Re:I see Quantum Computing every day by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      No, that's probably from Quantum Hiring.

  4. Exciting but doubtful by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I started a graduate EE program in 2000 in a quantum computing & quantum information program. By 2001 I pivoted to quantum cryptography. Upon graduating in 2005 I pivoted again to broader infosec. The intellectual puzzles were challenging and made me a resourceful engineer, but I saw little practical value in the narrow pursuits.

  5. Huh? by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A useful quantum computer needs to process a set of continuous parameters that is larger than the number of subatomic particles in the observable universe

    I thought that the whole point of quantum computers was that there's no need to describe or process all possible states. And that the difficulty of practical quantum computers is that the qubits need to "work together": you can't just make 1 cubit, then make 1023 more and build yourself a 1024 cubit computer.

    The guy obviously knows way more about quantum computers than I do. But I've never seen the difficulties of quantum computing described in this manner.

    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    1. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The qbits all need to be properly entangled (unlike classical computing where one can just lay down an identical copy of the gates alongside the old to double the width of the word). However, you're correct (more so than the OP) that one doesn't need exponentially more physical parts to execute on exponentially more possible states.

    2. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The need for additional qubits was about reducing the noise as I understood it. And the quantum systems as simulators for materials and chemistry should be the shorter term goal than the generic machine based on quantum gates that waits for the more noise tolerant qubits. There were already plans for quantum accelerators that are used along the traditional supercomputers. I feel the article contains some kind of misunderstanding when I compare the summary and the things I have read.

    3. Re:Huh? by Ramze · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think the key problem is theory vs physical reality. In theory, if you have a set of qubits entangled with zero noise at near absolute zero, you can send a quantum program to the qubits & have them process your data without you worrying about what their individual states are & then capture their completed output.

      In reality, how do you entangle enough qubits to be useful? How do you prevent noise or correct for the errors of noise? How do you ensure your qubits are properly entangled? How do you accurately send your quantum program to the qubits for processing? How do you aide in processing the qubits accurately without generating more noise? How do you extract the output without generating more noise? And ultimately, how are you going to ensure that you are entangling 10^300 attributes of your qubits perfectly in the first place, much less correcting for errors in processing them?

      I think the TL,DR is that this quantum physicist sees all the places errors can creep in and how difficult it can be to correct for them. The answers he sees coming from the community seems to be to just add more qubits for error correction - or even process the same data with multiple quantum computers or with multiple paths through the same qubits.

      I understand his/her frustration. It seems a difficult task to precisely manipulate qubits using modern technology, and an impossible task to know and/or set the states of everything to ultimately know for certain whether an error has been generated.

    4. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Negative thinking gets you NOWERE! Man solve every other problem in the Universe before, so why not this one? Yeah, that's what I thought. Exseciore!

    5. Re:Huh? by quax · · Score: 1

      Actually your are pretty much on point.

      Frankly this article is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.

    6. Re:Huh? by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      Both of the issues he raises (error handling while scaling up qubits and proof of outperforming classical computing) have been addressed (in fact, they've been posted to /. before,) and are no longer considered issues.
      Chances are this guy is a cryptocoin shill, realized they will be worthless by 2023 when quantum computers can run Shor's algorithm, and is campaigning against them in the hopes of making people lose interest. It's sad and pathetic, really, trying to stop technological development for memebits.

    7. Re:Huh? by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      Most of those problems are just engineering issues which are being constantly improved: larger, lower noise systems of qubits with longer and longer coherence times are being made every single day. The issue with noise and error is, as it turns out, already a basically solved problem: quantum error correction exists. As long as your qubits are good enough, you can devise systems that are error-free. Without error correction quantum computers would almost certainly never work. With it, creating one is just an engineering problem. A hard engineering problem, to be sure, but just an engineering problem.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    8. Re: Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      For all problems that can be meaningfully sped up in a quantum computer, it's easy to check the answer using a classical computer. So as long as there's a good probability of extracting the right answer we're good.

    9. Re:Huh? by Comrade+Ogilvy · · Score: 2

      I think his point roughly boils down to: We are counting this 1000 qubit computer being a juxtaposition of all 2^1000 states, in the first place. How do you know you have achieved that status? Are you going to measure those 2^1000 states? No, of course not.

      The initial state is something that is easy to describe in the abstract on a chalkboard, but what it really means in the physical world is extremely problematic.

      There is a lot of handwaving around this point from the quantum computing enthusiasts. "Oh, if we can get things 0.1% correct, we can just run the experiment many times." That would be true. If only.

      My counter argument is that getting a random 2^500 states rights in a 1000 qubit machine may already be too close to impossible. You do not have time before the heat death of the universe to run your calculation 2^500 times, to compensate for this shortcoming.

    10. Re:Huh? by epine · · Score: 5, Interesting

      In reality, how do you entangle enough qubits to be useful? How do you prevent noise or correct for the errors of noise? How do you ensure your qubits are properly entangled? How do you accurately send your quantum program to the qubits for processing? How do you aide in processing the qubits accurately without generating more noise?

      I've never believed in quantum computing, because I've never seen a lay publication that does half of these questions justice.

      Under you've seen the ceiling properly described, a technology simply doesn't exist.

      No one in this field ever bothers to describe the ceiling.

      In CMOS, you always had "when does the transistor become too small?" Some of the early answers were wrong (100 nm was once mooted as a frightening bogie man), but at least you would read sensible speculation.

      At what point, in a practical sense, does the quantum entanglistor become inseparable from local environmental noise?

      Silence. Crickets. Crickets on top of crickets. Crickets inside of crickets. Crickets alive and dead at the same time. All kinds of crickets. But never any sensible speculation.

    11. Re:Huh? by Ramze · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I tend to agree, and apparently so do IBM, Google, et al. Still, the larger the system, the more error prone it becomes. Obviously, we have quantum computers (or at least functioning parts of ones) working today and can entangle up to 50 qubits or more with relative stability... but, the question is whether we can do it at the scale needed to be "useful" (according to this individual) without losing the signal for all the noise.

      This person's perspective is that what we naively see as an engineering problem to be resolved with future refinements is actually an issue that can't be resolved because nature at a fundamental particle physics level can't be controlled or tuned to the degree necessary to get one working, nor reasonably checked for accuracy because the states to be checked are beyond astronomical.

    12. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Folks were also shouting similar things about sub-100nm feature size silicon chips: physically impossible, can never be done, ... Yet here we are. Physicists rarely seem to understand that engineering is partially the art of using chaotic systems in your favour. And the result doesn't always have to be exact, close enough will usually do.

    13. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      And yet they are having a lot of issues with 10nm features (with it being unclear if those claiming 10nm are using some rather loose definition to claim such or are actually achieving it). I'm not saying it's "physically impossible", but it's unclear where the actual limit is even if 100nm is not it. By the same token, it's not clear that you can keep adding qubits without at some point adding more noise than you'll ever get out of adding it, and that may well limit the applicability of quantum computing.

      Until the tech actually exists, I wouldn't claim to know how it'll turn out. It's not enough to say that in the past "experts" were wrong because often experts are wrong about both little and big things.

    14. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      >But I've never seen the difficulties of quantum computing described in this manner.

      That's because you've been reading hype by people who have an economic interest in keeping the hype train rolling...

    15. Re:Huh? by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure I follow. You don't believe quantum computing is possible because the people you've asked about it are hesitant to provide incorrect guesses?

    16. Re:Huh? by sjames · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Hot fusion is also "just an engineering problem".

    17. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      100 nm isn't really a bad guess. It is good enough for ballpark estimates.
      In the 80s that would have been a good enough guess to make plans for and make estimates for what you could fit in future chips.
      So, in practice it turned out that we can fit 100 times as much. It isn't that far off.
      Earlier estimates probably imagined computers with more discrete processors instead of putting ten cores in a single chip.
      The ting that wasn't as easy to predict was GPU processing.

      A similar estimate for quantum computing would be interesting. That would make it possible to make a "good enough" guess of what quantum computers will be capable of 20 years from now.
      Even if the guess is wrong it will be useful if it is in the same ballpark. Without a guess your estimate will be "between anything and nothing" which is about as useful as my leprechaun driven computer system.

    18. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You left out quantum teleportation of humans. Just an engineering problem!

    19. Re:Huh? by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      Yes, my classical computer is perfectly capable of processing more than 2^17,000,000,000 different states just counting its RAM. I don't see what the problem is. Hell, I can easily draw one of many googols of possible states on a sheet of paper. Doesn't keep me from processing it.

      I understand quantum computing is a lot harder than classcial, but if difficulty scaled with the number of states, the 72 qubit quantum computer made by Google, with almost 5 sextillion (10^21) states, ought to already be impossible. Seems to be working just fine regardless.

    20. Re:Huh? by gtall · · Score: 1

      Yah, people in the past have claimed that we'll never go faster than the speed of light, but sometime in the distant future, it will be so because everything that is claimed impossible will become possible.

      For your reading enjoyment, I suggest Relevance Logic "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relevance_logic". I might help you to connect your conclusions to your assumptions.

    21. Re: Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I imagine this guy standing next to the Wright brothers before they took their first flight, demanding to know what the limits were.

    22. Re:Huh? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Only the uninformed would say that. There's several separate problems to FTL

      1. Traveling at the speed of light for an object with mass requires infinite energy
      2. Traveling faster than light is time travel.

      1. Is obviously impossible
      2. Most people are unwilling accept time travel as a possibility.

    23. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Hot fusion is also "just an engineering problem".

      Using the word "also" makes it look like you are grouping fusion and quantum computing into the same level of possible, which is both not true and possibly showing a deep misunderstanding of the phrase "just an engineering problem"

      It comes down to how different people use the word "impossible"

      To some, impossible means the laws of physics explicitly do not allow it.
      To others, impossible means the laws of physics may not yet exclude it but there are no examples to demonstrate it could happen.

      "Just an engineering problem" was coined specifically for people who use the word "impossible" to describe something that is currently happening on a massive scale and clearly possible, but human beings can't do it.

      Yes, fusion is "just an engineering problem" because it is happening, with every star including our sun, and has been occurring for billions of years.
      That fact alone demonstrates that it is in fact possible. It is happening. Claims it is impossible to occur are just outright false.

      Quantum computing however isn't the same thing. There are no examples of it happening to point to and prove its possibility. All we have is that the laws of physics don't seem to exclude it as an option.
      That is NOT what "just an engineering problem" applies to.

      "Engineering" is taking a process and making it happen.
      That process needs to be defined first, and if it isn't, means there is *nothing* an engineer can do about it.

      From a physics perspective, fusion is pretty simple. Apply enough pressure and force to atoms so their electron shells overlap.
      From an engineering perspective, that may be straight forward but is FAR from simple to accomplish.

      Quantum computing on the other hand is not simple. We have nothing in nature doing that to follow. We have guesses and assumptions many of which haven't been shown as fact. There is damn little to engineer about it all.

      The phrase pretty much only applies when people claim as impossible things that are already occurring and clearly possible.
      Anything not demonstrated as possible isn't in the realm of engineering because it very well may not be possible until that proof is shown.

    24. Re:Huh? by SirSlud · · Score: 1

      Most of those problems are just engineering issues

      Yes, that's the point engineering issues so challenging that they will not be solved in a 'for pratical purposes' future.

      The issue with noise and error is, as it turns out, already a basically solved problem

      I assume Mikhail Dyakonov knows more about this stuff than you do and thus that you know not the devil in the details.

      --
      "Old man yells at systemd"
    25. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shor's algorithm has nothing to do with cryptocoin. SHA isn't a hidden subgroup problem.

    26. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Both those statements relies on the standard model.

      At the moment we assume that the standard model is correct, but should it ever turn out that it isn't then neither 1 or 2 is necessarily true. (They would be true for the next hypothetical model too, but how many degrees of speculation are we looking for here?)

    27. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If there are no questions about what the answer is, there is no one even looking. OR they have looked and the answer is contrary to the cash cow.

      I'm more inclined to believe the second. though to be completely frank, I never thought the cheat that was superimposition of states would work out long term. I could be wrong. But, it's been quite a while and useful computing systems are still not available.

    28. Re: Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Enigineering is the art of using deterministic systems in your favor, not chaotic ones.

    29. Re:Huh? by jythie · · Score: 1

      The thing about engineering problems is they still have to contend with the question of what is and is not possible, but are even more constrained in their options than purely theoretical. The limits of engineering hit LONG before the limits of ideal physics.

    30. Re: Huh? by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Is obviously impossible

      Perhaps we can power our FTL drives with circular reasoning.

    31. Re: Huh? by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Chances are this guy is a cryptocoin shill

      That was certainly my immediate conclusion.

    32. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Qubits? are you building an ark?

    33. Re: Huh? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      1. Traveling at the speed of light for an object with mass requires infinite energy

      1. Is obviously impossible

      Perhaps we can power our FTL drives with circular reasoning.

      Human stupidity probably works better for you as you seem to have an endless reserve, while infinite energy would be much harder to come by.

      Please go on. I sense you are a person who is so stupid they have no idea what they don't know.

    34. Re:Huh? by SharpFang · · Score: 1

      In theory, if you have a set of transistors connected with no-resistance wires, you can send program to the bits & have the CPU prrocess your data without you worrying about what their individual states are & then capture their completed output.

      In reality, how do you connect enough transistors to be useful? How do you prevent EMI noise or correct errors from the noise in wires? How do you ensure your transistors are correctly connected? How do you accurately write the program to the memory? How do you run the program without generating more EMI noise? How do you extract the output without generating more noise? And ultimately, how are you going to ensure that you are powering several million transistors and maintaining voltages and currents perfectly in the first place, much less correcting for errors in processing them?

      --
      45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
    35. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe you need a quantum computer to handle all the states / error correction for your quantum computer to work at production levels.

    36. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How do you know your qbit hasn't already been entangled by spies?

    37. Re:Huh? by SharpFang · · Score: 1

      In the past people said the same about speed of sound too...

      --
      45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
    38. Re:Huh? by WaffleMonster · · Score: 1

      I thought that the whole point of quantum computers was that there's no need to describe or process all possible states. And that the difficulty of practical quantum computers is that the qubits need to "work together": you can't just make 1 cubit, then make 1023 more and build yourself a 1024 cubit computer.

        The guy obviously knows way more about quantum computers than I do. But I've never seen the difficulties of quantum computing described in this manner.

      I think it's important to express measures in this way because it keeps everyone honest. People are cheating at least in marketing jargon. Simply belching out number of qubits in something is like belching out the number of transistors in a flash drive and using that to draw conclusions about it's processing performance relative to other components.

      Given we have people building "topological" computers with a whole lot of qubits that don't map to anything resembling exponential performance curve I think it makes the most sense to describe performance in this way and only in this way. Qubit counts are meaningless.

    39. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most of this tech already exists. ECC RAM, for example, can correct most errors introduced by noise or manufacturing defects.

    40. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Arks are speculative technology. Even the quantum ones. And golden arches. And hair care products that get you laid in Saturday night.

    41. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you mean Controlled Hot Fusion - The Uncontrolled version has been solved from the engineering standpoint as thermonuclear bombs.

    42. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the past people said the same about speed of sound too...

      No. No one ever thought the speed of sound was a theoretical limit. When you crack a whip, the tip goes faster than the speed of sound. Many rifle bullets are faster than the speed of sound. The sound barrier was always refereed to as an engineering challenge, not a scientific rule.

    43. Re:Huh? by mcswell · · Score: 1

      He's supposed to be getting two of every animal, but I hear the cats don't want to go on board this ark.

    44. Re:Huh? by mcswell · · Score: 1

      I believe gtall (the person you are responding to) was being sarcastic, i.e. s/he was implying that the AC he was responding to was wrong. gtall was providing an example showing NOT everything claimed to be impossible will become possible. At least that's my take.

      Otoh, there's this quote from Arthur C. Clarke: "If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong." Of course Clarke's timetable for human travel around the solar system was a bit off...

    45. Re:Huh? by SharpFang · · Score: 1

      "Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." - Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830

      “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.”—New York Times, 1936

      "The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives." -- Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.

      "No one ever thought the speed of sound was a theoretical limit" -- Anonymous Coward, 2018.

      --
      45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
    46. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I guess it makes some sense for your ark to have qubits as you would have to deep freeze the genetic material. Just be careful to not to entangle the wrong gene streams as your ark completes its purpose.

  6. Pretty much my take also by gweihir · · Score: 1

    And has been for about 2 decades or so. Even if the physical universe supports it (and that is a big if, given the exactness required and the problem of noise), it may well be impossible to build a QC of meaningful size. It does look now very much that it is either infeasible or far, far in the future (i.e. >100 years and possibly much more).

    And to all you attack dogs that cannot bear having your dreams criticized: I am not opposed to QC in any way. I just do not see it happening.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    1. Re:Pretty much my take also by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Smash the attack-dogs in the teeth. They are prolly Trotsky-slut tek-hoes. Then bust their neez, make them bleed each time they pea.

    2. Re:Pretty much my take also by ganv · · Score: 1

      It seems odd that these pessimistic voices are speaking up just as real calculations are beginning to be done on quantum computers. Google is making claims that their 72 Q-bit system might achieve quantum supremacy in the coming year, meaning it would outperform a classical computer on a certain problem. Most think this claim is a bit exaggerated, but it seems it is going to happen in the next decade. The trapped ion computers are just being scaled to more than a few Q-bits. These are hard projects. It will take years before anyone is using quantum computers on a regular basis for practical problem solving. But I don't see any fundamental barriers to this. Many other technical problems have been proclaimed as coming soon like fusion and travel to the planets when it was still not even known if the engineering problems were tractable given the economic realities. Quantum computing is very different. Small scale realizations of each of the key components has already been demonstrated. There are several different solutions that are competing to find out which is first, cheapest, and most reliable. It is hard to see how they would all fail.

    3. Re:Pretty much my take also by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2

      That's not quite what quantum supremacy means. It's not their quantum computer doing a computation faster than a conventional computer. That would be a very slippery benchmark. First question... what conventional computer?

      Quantum supremacy means demonstrating that your quantum computer can complete certain computations with less computational complexity than a classical computer. In the typical examples, the classical complexity is exponential and the quantum complexity is theorized to be subexponential.

      The quantum computer may very well take much longer than the classical computer in clock time, and any problem Google solves with a 72 qubit chip is going to be a toy example.

    4. Re:Pretty much my take also by jythie · · Score: 1

      Wel, yeah. As hype increases people talk more about the subject, thus one hears dissenting opinions more often than when it is out of the news cycle.

    5. Re:Pretty much my take also by gweihir · · Score: 1

      There is a difference between "nice effect" and "actually useful"....

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    6. Re:Pretty much my take also by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Yes. Quantum supremacy doesn't mean you've got a computer that does something that wasn't possible before. It means you've got a computer that, scaled up, could do something that wasn't possible before.

      Properly scaled up is a major caveat, particularly in quantum computing.

    7. Re:Pretty much my take also by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Scaling will be the killer. So far, QCs seem to be scaling extremely badly, and I do not really see that changing. If it remains like this, useful sizes will not happen, and the whole idea will go to the (pretty large) heap of alternate computing hardware that did not pan out.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    8. Re:Pretty much my take also by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Yes. I was involved in teaching a month-long quantum computing course, and the experts in the field were pretty skeptical. Approaches like D-Wave's might turn out to be the winner: build some specialized hardware that works with the limitations and then try to find problems that work on it. The other approach, trying to make a general purpose quantum computer, is a much dicier proposition. Even then, Shor's algorithm isn't quite what the pop science articles paint it as.

  7. Not impossible... just even harder to exploit by igor.sfiligoi · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The author makes a great point about the near impossibility of perfect, error-free quantum computation.
    But this has been realized a few years back by most quantum algorithm developers, too.

    Many recent algorithms assume that the quantum computation will be partially faulty.
    And they work around it.

    Yes, that makes these algorithms harder to design and they are less efficient compared to the ones assuming no errors, but they still seem to provide a way forward.
    I would definitely not write off quantum computing yet.

    1. Re: Not impossible... just even harder to exploit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This. I was under the impression that everyone was already working on the assumption that quantum hardware would be best at providing fuzzy results at best, with design to work around it.

      Honestly, it sounds like the author has a massive case of the "poor me"s.

      "I'm giving up, so should you!"

      Way to promote the technological advancement of the species, asshole!

    2. Re: Not impossible... just even harder to exploit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Hey, that homeopathic medicine is unlikely to have any effective ingredient in it."

      "Way to promote the technological advancement of the species, asshole!"

    3. Re:Not impossible... just even harder to exploit by postbigbang · · Score: 1

      You needn't write off quantum computing. However, others are.

      There are ways to null the noise, but such methods and algorithms need to be repetitious, while errors are minimized. At some point, a linear method of error reduction becomes possible at a plausible size/cost/effort. That revolution is not now, as described.

      Many millions, perhaps billions of $currency have been spent so far, with results that are realistically described by the poster. This is not like the olden days, when people started integrating TTL logic into CPUs and with lots of transistors turned into memory chips (PROMs and RAM) into early usable computers for the masses. Indeed, we aren't even at a decent Turing point for quantum computing. Adding machines and Turing machines and logic eventually formed programmable mainframes, and minis, then microcomputers, to the level of integration we have with Von Neumann computers today. Quantum computing needs, er, a leap. A basket full of noisy qubits doesn't a revolution, make, and that's the point of the post, IMHO. I wouldn't wait around.

      --
      ---- Teach Peace. It's Cheaper Than War.
    4. Re:Not impossible... just even harder to exploit by WaffleMonster · · Score: 1

      The author makes a great point about the near impossibility of perfect, error-free quantum computation. But this has been realized a few years back by most quantum algorithm developers, too.

      Many recent algorithms assume that the quantum computation will be partially faulty. And they work around it.

      Yes, that makes these algorithms harder to design and they are less efficient compared to the ones assuming no errors, but they still seem to provide a way forward. I would definitely not write off quantum computing yet.

      If whatever augmentation you can dream up doesn't follow an exponential growth curve (NONE OF THEM DO) then it's not worth thinking about on these scales.

      Lets say your able to do quantum error correcting using fan-outs of supporting qubits. None of the imagined schemes to achieve this come close to exponential scaling.

      Likewise no kind of oversampling or related scheme anyone has been able to dream up to account for noise allows exponential scaling.

      There becomes a decidedly non-exponential curve after which you've fallen so deep into the noise floor your totally screwed no matter how clever you are.

      Please don't get me wrong these things are useful and worth doing. I have no doubt QC will be useful for solving problems in the future. It's just that none of it means jack shit in the context of a scalable quantum computer.

  8. I'm shocked, shocked I say! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So you're saying the theoretical computer that can solve impossible problems is itself impossible?

    1. Re: I'm shocked, shocked I say! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not impossible, merely improbable....

    2. Re: I'm shocked, shocked I say! by Zobeid · · Score: 1

      Well then. We just need to work out exactly how improbable it is, feed that figure into the finite improbability generator, give it a fresh cup of really hot tea . . . and turn it on!

    3. Re: I'm shocked, shocked I say! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nobody can stand a smartass!

    4. Re: I'm shocked, shocked I say! by PPH · · Score: 1

      I'll catch the bowl of petunias. You stand under the sperm whale.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    5. Re: I'm shocked, shocked I say! by neoRUR · · Score: 0

      I calculated the probability and its 42..

  9. the premise seems incorrect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you don't have to make a q computer to replace regular computers. you don't need a q computer to use ms word. classic computers are already great at what they do. you only need q computers to do what they do well that classical computers can't - namely encryption/decryption duties. and it seems that for such purposes, lesser bits than all the particles in the observable universe will do.

  10. It's uncertain by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    We'll know when the wave equation collapses.

  11. Ran till the cat died by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In my experiments the quantum computer ran until the cat reached a terminal state.

    Either way the goal of wasting a lot of Chinese resources was achieved very early in the process.

  12. Is flying impossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible"

    1. Re:Is flying impossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you assert something is impossible, it's critically important that you aren't also an idiot. Birds, bats, and insects are all heavier than air and many of them can fly, so it isn't that much of a stretch to imagine that a machine could do it too.

      There's no way to prove that Voodoo or warp drive are impossible. They can't even prove that perpetual motion machines are impossible, but those three things have a much more reasonable number of researchers than quantum computing does.

      captcha: aviator

  13. Its really hard to determine... by 3seas · · Score: 0

    ... because of it being such a subjective topic. Hint: you have one built in.

  14. Makes no sense by cryptizard · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So the number of continuous parameters describing the state of such a useful quantum computer at any given moment must be at least 2**1,000, which is to say about 10**300. That's a very big number indeed. How big? It is much, much greater than the number of subatomic particles in the observable universe.

    I am struggling to come up with some way that this part makes any sense at all. It sounds like the kind of thing someone who is definitely not an expert the area would say. He is expressing the number of possible configurations of 1,000 qubits but that is only something you care about if you are simulating a quantum computer with a classical one. The whole point of quantum computers is that you don't have to do that.

    Also a simple counterexample to this sentiment is given later on, when mentioning that Google already has a 72-qubit computer. Just storing the states of a 72-qubit machine would be substantially more than the entire capacity of the internet, implying that since we somehow did it then enumerating all the states is not necessary.

    1. Re:Makes no sense by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      It just means you don't have to add external memory. You'll use some sort of functional programming, and the state information will collapse as needed.

  15. Betteridge's Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    No

  16. If it were impossible by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    would companies be making quantum processors? see ibm, intel, google

    1. Re:If it were impossible by Bobrick · · Score: 1

      Well, I guess we should just take their word. Just like when Wal-mart says it's doing a lot of good for local communities.

    2. Re:If it were impossible by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So an Indian consulting company, a company that sells decades old vulnerability ridden electricity hog cpus, and an advertising company are all making quantum computers? Ohhh kay then.

    3. Re: If it were impossible by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      well they also say "Artificial Intelligence" although there is no intelligence to be seen any time soon.

      In other words they will sell whatever their buyers think is the most recent thing they absolutely must have.

  17. More Quantum Hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is some douchebag VC hoping to unload some shitty QC startup before the latest bubble completely pops? Quantum shit has been getting shilled unusually hard lately.

  18. Possible Encryption Cracking? by michael.karl.coleman · · Score: 1

    I'm pretty sure that the CIA and friends would pay all of the money (*all of it*) to have a box that could crack public key encryption. How feasible is this? Is it on the horizon, or one of those things (like practical fusion) that always will be?

    1. Re:Possible Encryption Cracking? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If QC actually works the same in practice as in theory, we already can crack most asymmetric keys 70 magnitudes faster than before.

      If QC actually works the same in practice as in theory, 40-bit keys can be cracked nearly instantly right now. Milisecond turn around times largely dependent on bus speed.

      Of course no one has demonstrated this capability. This ability is reminiscent to the theory that a fully zeroed HDD can still have data recovered from it with an electron microscope (or a few other esoteric techniques). Many claimed possibility, but no one, even when a cash prize was available, managed to demonstrate capability.

    2. Re:Possible Encryption Cracking? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They have other ways of accomplishing that task that doesn't involve a little box cracking the algo, but getting behind the encrypted layer and simply pulling the key out. Cracking via brute rainbow tables is doable within hours NOW.
      The traffic they really want isn't encrypted by typical consumer methods on networks they control, obviously. That's low lying fruit and they have that all circumvented already more than not. The handshakes are the breaking points.
         

    3. Re:Possible Encryption Cracking? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No imagine if all data that went over internet were encrypted.
      You'd need a lot of quantum computers and milliseconds to process all that.

      You still can't just decrypt everything to run fishing expeditions. You would need to actually decide what data you want to look at.

  19. Quantum Computing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You never know if the quantum computer will be able to solve the problem until you try. Then, it will either work or it won't.

  20. I think it is waste of time and money by kzwork · · Score: 1

    I think it is waste of time and money, with errors in quantum computing, this is like making an analogue computer to work.
    We should focus of using the light as a signal with proper switches and keep the computers digital/binary.

    1. Re:I think it is waste of time and money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is your brain if it's not an analogue computer ?

  21. 3 Decades Too Late!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If this was the year 1988, then this attempt to stop quantum computer R&D, (just maybe!), could have a (tiny!) chance!!! :-)

    This is like someone (an "expert") looks at the first mechanical computer designs/attempts, & says/declares "computers are completely impossible/impractical, so stop working on them people"!!!

    History full of records of "experts" declaring many things impossible but we know otherwise today!!!

    1. Re:3 Decades Too Late!!! by thr13z3 · · Score: 1

      Pretty sure that that person was simply expressing his informed views of the current state of quantum computing and doesn't have some sort of evil agenda to prevent QC from ever becoming a thing.

  22. Something cool or just the latest buzzword? by DidgetMaster · · Score: 0

    I tend to be skeptical about things like QC because we have heard so many hyped up stories over the years. Cold fusion, fusion generators, room-temperature super-conduction, 100 mpg engines, etc. are just a few examples. That does even begin to address things like WinFS, the decentralized web, mainstream crypto-currencies, or 100 TB hard drives that were supposed to be here by now. But plenty of breakthrough technologies have come about in spite of all the skepticism around them (I am working on one of my own), so I try not to be too skeptical. Let's give it a few years and reserve judgement until we see tangible evidence. Just don't throw a lot of money at it (bitcoin, cough, cough) until you see some.

  23. author makes a mistake by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The number of continuous variables is not 2 to the 1000 power, but rather 2 times 1000 or 2000 continuous variables. The number of possible states those cubits can have depend on the level of noise, less noise means more states.

    1. Re: author makes a mistake by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      same AC. As a consequence you can store truely huge integer values in 1000 qubits. Where a conventional computer would need to use a BigNum representation to factor 1000 bit integer, a quantum computer can do it with a single qubit register whose size in qubits depends on how many discrete states the continuous variables can hold, which itself is determined by how much noise those variables are subjected to.

    2. Re: author makes a mistake by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1000 qubits stores 3000 continuous values, though it is slow and difficult to calculate what they were by repeating the same calculation and reading out a single bit per qubit each time.

      The quantum computing researchers, for reasons unknown, have without any evidence decided that the 1000 qubits instead store at least 2^1000 values. The main benefit of a quantum computer is not that these values are continuous, but rather that 2^ is a really big number.

      What you described in your post sounds more like an analog computer.

  24. It seemed possible by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...until I looked into the matter.

  25. I am open to getting implants but none by oldgraybeard · · Score: 1

    my clients/employers would ever have any kind access to/make use of. I don't know why any employee/contractor would accept that as a terms of employment
    As for implants for my defective eyes and/or other senses, computer interfacing, nervous system interfacing I would definitely consider it when it looks advantageous and useful.
    But in reality I am probably to old (63) to get there.

    Just my 2 cents ;)

    1. Re:I am open to getting implants but none by oldgraybeard · · Score: 1

      darn wrong article ;) lol

  26. That reminds me, how's bubble memory coming along by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I remember it was all the rage a few decades.

  27. Error-correcting code, super string theory by wolfheart111 · · Score: 1

    Perhaps writing the code in this way would help with the problem suggested in this article. Whats the name of that language again? lol

    --
    [($)]
  28. Impossible, but still useful by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The state of quantum physics is poor. (As in the experts saying nobody understands it.)

    Hopefully, even if it doesn't work, the quest for QC will find some more understanding for the underlying physics.

  29. If an elderly but distinguished scientist says... by g.random · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong. -- Arthus C. Clarke

  30. reality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    conventional computing: results = logic(question, algorithm).
    quantum computing: algorithm = quantum(question, results).
    combined computing: results' = logic(question', quantum(question, results)

    quantum => number of qbits needed to describe the algorithm.

  31. This article is nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    1000 qubits have 2^1000 possible states, yes. That does not mean you need 2^1000 parameters to describe them. 1000 will do.

    By the argument in this article, electronic computers with 1Kb of RAM are impossible.

  32. Re:Cold Fusion II: Quantum computing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wait, wait! Don't forget "nano technology"! That was going to be the next big thing in the early 2000s before Steve Jobs created the iPhone and everyone realized mobile was actually the next big thing. The fact that there is so much hype for quantum right now just shows no one really knows what the next big thing will be so the hype-void is being filled with snake oil quacks.

  33. Cryptoshills Getting Proactive? by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

    Makes since, lots of money at stake and they only have ~5 years before quantum computers destroy their pump & dump campaign, gotta keep the suckers buying shitcoins.

  34. So it's all smoke and mirrors? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Much like self-driving cars are? Just a bunch of hype and fake data, but not in the least practical due to severe limitations?

  35. Reminds me of an article.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This reminds me of a publication in the mid 90's about the impossibility of creating cell phones that would transmit data while moving at fast speeds. Something about shooting a follicle of hair moving at 300 mph with a toothpick and some outrageously large ratio of difficulty... Now look, almost every man, woman and child in the developed worlds has one. Some businesses even say it's almost ready for prime time:

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90232670/quantum-computing-is-almost-ready-for-business-startup-says

    1. Re:Reminds me of an article.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >“What we want to do is focus on the commercial utility and applicability of these machines, because ultimately that’s why this company exists,” says Rigetti. (On that promise, the company has raised $119.5 million from investors, including Andreessen Horowitz.)

      Oh, that's the source of the hype. It's an Andreesen-Howoritz plus Y-Combinator hype job. 90% of their investments fail, so don't get too excited, kid.

  36. An historical perspective by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Imagine it is 1948, and you want to create a computer with a processor that has a million components. Someone would have told you, "That's impossible; you would have vacuum tubes burning out every few seconds."

    Quantum computing today is in a similar situation: we can build qubits, but we can't have a lot of them working together without decohering in short order. We need to find a better way to build qubits. Maybe that's possible and maybe it isn't, but absent a convincing proof of impossibility, it's worth trying.

  37. Very few things are impossible by vlad30 · · Score: 1

    It just comes down to Cost vs Benefit vs bragging rights e.g. Fusion power while there are cheaper energy sources it is no rush to make fusion power except bragging rights at the moment same goes with Quantum computing if the benefit could be defined as giving a nation a really good advantage it would have lots of money thrown at it which would then attract more people to work on it

    --
    Your'e all thinking it, I just said it for you
  38. Forget quantum computing... by sgage · · Score: 1

    ... i want to know when the Positronic Brain will be perfected!

  39. Author makes significant mistake by JS52649965 · · Score: 1

    The author makes a significant error which falsies his entire line of reasoning. The number of continuous variables in a 1000 qubit register is 2000, not 2^1000. Furthermore, the least technically difficult application of a qubit is to create an ALU operating on two qubit based registers. In that system the only entanglement is between the two electrons in a cubit, something that has been accomplished. The number of discrete states which can be held by each qubit depends on how noise free the system is, which is where much focus is at now. The advantage of this system over a conventional computer is that only a small number of qubits are needed to store the integer values of a 1000 bit conventional register. As a consequence, factorization of the large primes in a 1000 bit encryption key can be accomplished more efficiently. Presently, you need a BigNum like representation in conventional computers, which is primarily a software process. The real value of a qubit ALU is more aparent in factorization of the 2048 and 4096 bit keys of RSA or other public key encryption systems. The integer value represented by a 4096 bit key requires 64 registers on a 64-bit machine. Most 64 bit machines do not have 64 registers available for extended mathematical operations and so most of the work must be accomplished in software, and as a consequence it is very slow.

    1. Re: Author makes significant mistake by JS52649965 · · Score: 1

      Sorry, typo, âoefalsieâ should be âoefalsifiesâ. Hope everyone enjoyed a good laugh.

    2. Re:Author makes significant mistake by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The integer value represented by a 4096 bit key requires 64 registers on a 64-bit machine. Most 64 bit machines do not have 64 registers available for extended mathematical operations and so most of the work must be accomplished in software, and as a consequence it is very slow.

      You only need 8 of the 32 available AVX512 registers (ZMM00 -- ZMM31).

      most of the work must be accomplished in software

      Well unless your machine has 4096 bit registers then yes, you'll have to use more than one instruction (software).

  40. Follow the money! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is this guy shorting quantum-computing firms? Or perhaps looking to buy stocks for such firms at reduced prices? I'm kidding!

    But, consider the history of other fields of research which began with excitement about the prospect of implementing a basic (but great) theory/idea, followed by decades of struggling to actually implement, followed by a sudden surge of progress when other (possibly unanticipated) technologies arise to help finish an implementation.

    When the simple neuron-inspired "perceptron" model was first proposed and studied, there was a lot of excitement about its potential to enable computers to eventually recognize patterns with the same incredible ability as humans, and perhaps even "think"!

    But, then... (From the Wikipedia article for "Marvin Minsky")
    "Minsky wrote the book Perceptrons (with Seymour Papert), which became the foundational work in the analysis of artificial neural networks. This book is the center of a controversy in the history of AI, as some claim it to have had great importance in discouraging research of neural networks in the 1970s, and contributing to the so-called "AI winter".[24]"

    However, the pessimistic forecast of that book was based on the limited vision of its authors (which is ironic, considering that they used the example of limited vision of individual perceptrons to demonstrate their seeming inability to find solutions requiring a wider total perspective).

    It took other technological advances (e.g., miniaturization of circuitry, development of massively-parallel processors) to finally realize wide practical application (and open up exponential advancement of the field through the use of these high-performance implementations as virtual laboratories).

    Sure, some ideas for technologies based on physical principles might be very difficult to implement. But, the notion that we will not eventually find a way to use quantum mechanical dynamics more directly for calculation seems very shortsighted and silly.

    Maybe current ideas about the structure of physical objects which will encode and process information quantum mechanically is not quite on the right track -- but the efforts to create these processors will definitely contribute to the knowledge base needed to do things a better way.

    1. Re:Follow the money! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everyone said what Theranos was doing was impossible too, and now look how stupid they look! Who looks stupid? That is left as an exercise for the reader.

    2. Re: Follow the money! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yup ! What you say applies always! Cold fusion for all in 2019!

  41. "Having spent decades conducting research" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I call this BS. A serious scientist would not use this misleading language to assert what can at best be defined a personal opinion. This article seems to be written for the dumbs and is nonsense on so many levels.

    Just to clarify: "the number of continuous parameters describing the state of such a useful quantum computer at any given moment must be at least 2**1,000". So what? A classical computer with 1000 bits needs also to be described with 2**1000 parameters. Granted they are not *continuous* parameters, but why should this be a problem? It only matters because classical computers are a kind of hardware which can only process one discrete state at a time. The idea with QC is that the hardware itself does it differently. So OP is comparing apples VS oranges.

    Moreover, those parameters need not to be "continuous". For any practical implementation of QC, a discrete (but high enough) accuracy is sufficient.

    Finally, last time I checked, the general consensus amongst physicists was that the threshold at which it should be possible to witness "quantum supremacy" (i.e., to have a quantum computer which might not break your RSA keys, but is still interesting for solving certain optimization and chemistry problems) is more on the order of 90-100 qubits, not 1000. Given that the current (claimed) record is Bristlecone's 72 qubits, we are really, really close to see something interesting.

    Or maybe this will never happen. Maybe there are intrinsic physical limitations which make building a QC impossible. If you could prove this, Scott Aaronson has promised to give you 100k USD, and he's no crackpot.

    Nah, the only reason why we don't have quantum computers yet it's because it's engineering-level hard to build them. As it is with all new tech, and as it was for most of the tech we use today. But to say "QC with 1000 qubits will never be feasible" is like being in 1907 and saying "ah, this vacuum tube you invented is interesting, but computers with 1000 bits of memory will be impossible anyway".

    Source: I'm a scientist and researcher in quantum cryptography. But posting as AC so doesn't matter.

    1. Re:"Having spent decades conducting research" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Way to miss the point of the article, retard. The article is by an ENGINEER, and his point is, this shit is not an "engineering problem" worth solving. Quantum computing will work if only some engineer will solve all the nitty gritty details for us. Well, no. How about that? Quantum computing is bunk.

  42. Explaining 'current' 'Quantum Computing' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This time I'll use analogy, so you Slashdot regulars might finally get it.

    Let's say you are interested in FLUID DYNAMICS- in this case what happens to water in a clear 'fish tank' when you move the tank creating 'waves'.

    Method ONE- use a trad computer running a trad sim you hope is realively accurate.

    Method TWO (the 'Quantum Computer' analogy)- build a REAL fishtank with REAL water, and control the parameters (size of tank, amount of water, nature of tank movement) and FILM the results. Feed the filmed results back into the traditional computer. Call this 'magic' and look for suckers to inest billions into your con.

    Ah, you say- but this 'Quantum Computer' may 'calculate' realistic water motion, but what about calculations NOT about water motion. Ah, say the 'quantum computer' conmen- simples. Find a generalised equation for the water motion, whose 'INPUT' parameters are the physical ones mentioned above. 'Solve' this equation by doing the 'simulation' for REAL- then find a way to use this very specialised piece of maths in any particular algorithm.

    Like, for instance, we have a magic machine that does 128-bit floating point division VERY quickly. So now we just need to make FP divisions the TIME-DEPENDENT heart of any other calculation or algorithm. An obvious nonsense even for something as basic as division- but an INFINITE nonsense for the classic wave collapse quantum calculation current quantum computers claim to 'calculate'.

    Most of you dribblers won't believe a word I wrote above, in the same way one can NEVER convince an idiot in the midst of falling for yet another pyramid scam by explaining the principle of the scam. You 'think' that accepting the 'reality' of Quantum Computing somehow makes you 'clever', just like the scammed idiot rushing around to borrow money to stick in that 'amazing, time limited investment'.

    What I have described by analogy is EXACTLY how current 'quantum computers' work- BUT unlike the wave box, setting up the initial parameters for the quantum computer and then reading the result doesn't work. And it wouldn't matter if it did- but even the first stage of the con doesn't work as sold.

    The SAME people selling this con are the SAME people maiming tens of thousands of protestors in Gaza with sniper fire - sick sadistic criminals that are proud to be members of Humanity's worst power/death cult. Only a few days back, the cream of Hollywood was proudly raising money for these satanic snipers, howling with laughter at images of every amputee in Gaza.

    The infamous 'Murder Hotel/Castle" serial killer was a TECH CONMAN as well. He successfully sold cons like 'Quantum Computing' to suckers back in the 19th century, and then would murder children and young women, later selling their skeletons to 'legitimate' medical supply outlets.

    The big tribe-controlled tech giants all work in sync to help bring about genocidal war in Iran- the current big boss of the tribe proudly boasting that HE was the one that got Trump to renage on the nuke treaty with Iran. Slashdot demonises Iran whenever it thinks it can to the same purpose.

    Tech cons and genocidal killers. Yet their evil acts and evil intents have never existed in plainer sight.

  43. Off-topic, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    WT actual F is going on in the comments section right now?! In the last few days I've had to raise my filter from -1 up to 1, and the quality of discussion is still basically trash. The apk impersonator spam in first doesn't help, but even that's just the tip of the iceberg.

    If ever there were a potential application for quantum computing, I'd say that's it's in /. moderation!

    Maybe I should actually log in for a change and accrue some mod points to tackle this.

    1. Re:Off-topic, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      -1 has been useless for a lot longer than a few days. Real APK, fake APK, cremier spam, and lots of regular trash. I haven't noticed 0 changing, though.

  44. Quantum computing by AHuxley · · Score: 1

    is another AI winter? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    Great for getting all possible mil and gov funding.

    --
    Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
  45. A Quantum Blockchain is the obvious solution by ChesterRafoon · · Score: 1

    Then a Quantum Blockchain Coin. Or Quantum VR. Or Quantum NOSQL databases. C'mon people, think out of your comfy Einstein inspired box! OK, not really. Fusion reactors. Self driving cars. Quantum computing. Sometimes the last 10% or 5% or 1% of development is where the rubber doesn't always meet the road and the whole thing, no matter how promising/life changing/world saving (pick any two) finally just doesn't work in the real world with real world requirements and expectations.

    1. Re:A Quantum Blockchain is the obvious solution by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Quantum AI blockchain running node.js microservices via VR running NOSQL databases in the IOT edge cloud.

      Oh, I just had a synergygasm!

  46. Quantum Computers will end up as Maker toys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Like other useless tech like 3D Printers, Quantum Computers be repackaged as toys for Makers in the next decade. Come to a workshop at our Makerspace to learn how to leverage the power of quantum computing to do addition and subtraction of big ass numbers on your Quantum Arduino! Quantum kits will be available for $49.99, or order yours online today!

  47. Reductio and absurdum by sgunhouse · · Score: 2

    By his logic... my very first computer was an RCA VIP, it came with a whopping 2K of RAM. That's a measly 16384 bits - not counting internal registers, flags, etc.So to actually model all the possible internal states of just the RAM is 2^16384 which is roughly 10^500. I'm sure you know how the rest of the argument goes.

    A thousand qubits is simply 1000 mutually interacting particles. You're not trying to represent every possible state (and as the possible states are infinite, you couldn't). His argument is complete nonsense and tells you nothing at all.

  48. He knows what he is talking about: by fredrated · · Score: 0

    Dyakonov theoretically predicted a new class of surface electromagnetic waves, now called Dyakonov surface waves.

  49. Open your mouth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    for me to shit in

  50. Let the past be your guide by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Quantum physics is always teasing us with almosts: almost instantaneous communication, almost energy out of nowhere, almost backward time travel, etc.

    After all these teases, I'd bet on quantum computing having an inherent flaw nobody has discovered yet.

    Schrodinger Lucy is holding the football again...

  51. 256 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    256 QBit should be enough for anybody

  52. Rascal doesn't dream of Quantum Computing senpai. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is certainly a high potential for application of quantum annealing in japanese secondary education. In other words:

    Kimi no Sei, kimi no sei, kimi no sei kimi no sei de watashi, uwu...

  53. Unrealistic expectations by rkordmaa · · Score: 4, Interesting
    First of all, a quantum computer is not a regular computer with added magical pixie dust, it's not a "better" computer, it's a very different type of computer. Generally much more limited computer at that, but it can solve a certain subset of problems that a conventional computer practically cant. All a quantum computer needs to do in order to be a roaring success is to solve one such impossible problem. I suspect we are pretty close to that.

    Quantum computer is more like a test tube than a computer. In the sense that the best way to find out how a chemical reaction will run is to do it in a test tube, instead of trying to simulate in on a classical computer. Quantum computer is just more generic than that and you can reduce wider range of problems down to quantum algorithms.

    1. Re:Unrealistic expectations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Generally much more limited computer at that, but it can solve a certain subset of problems that a conventional computer practically cant.

      This isn't true. It can solve problems faster (as in Big O notation). In order to solve one faster than a conventional laptop can it would need to have a huge number of qu-bits. You know, exactly like the summary tells you.

  54. Re:If an elderly but distinguished scientist says. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    A writer of fiction's opinion on cutting edge scientist is as good as the scientist's fiction writing skills.

    Expertise is non-transferable.

  55. Predictions I have seen at uni by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are around the 50 to 70 year mark to solve realistic prime divisor problems.
    From what I have seen general purpose quantum computing is not coming any time soon.
    Don't forget, you still need a normal computer to control the damn thing, and read out and process the results.
    Some good layout patterns have been found for single qu-bit error correction, but as far as I know, none have yet been found for generalized multi q-bit layout.

  56. THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES NAZI FAGGOT KEN DOLL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES FOR YOUR LIES NAZI FAGGOT KEN DOLL

    Filter error: Don't use so many caps. It's like YELLING. Filter error: Don't use so many caps. It's like YELLING.

  57. Re:IMPERSONATING ME AGAIN? apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you always make my day. it's always nice to see someone out there has even less of a grip on reality than i do. thank you, i feel that much less retarded with you near me.

  58. History of the FET by TooTechy · · Score: 1

    They gave up trying to make the Field Effect Transistor in the '30s until the right technology came along...

    1. Re:History of the FET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, this is an apt analogy. Vacuum tube based computers had scaling issues. The invention of the FET improved scaling followed by the integrated circuit which improved it again. Until we had these things no one could imagine a computer with a million gates.

  59. Was "the foreseeable future" ever a consideration? by Timothy2.0 · · Score: 1

    I think this article really overestimates the drive for quantum computing on a grand scale, and I don't think it was ever sold to use by the experts as something that we would actually see in "the foreseeable future". As such, that makes the author's premise disingenuous.

    I always assumed we'd have optical computers long, LONG before a general-purpose quantum computer, and I don't think it's unreasonable to stand by that statement. That said, I don't think that warrants slowing down any resaerch towards quantum computers, no matter how daunting the scope.

    Let's compare quantum computing to nuclear fusion: I doubt I'll see sustainable, controlled fusion in my lifetime. That doesn't negate the investment of billions upon billions of dollars into it, nor should it, but fusion's just as "foreseeable" as quantum computers.

  60. typical nay-saying by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is just like when Marvin Minsky wrote Perceptrons and discouraged research on neural nets for over a decade.

  61. Core arguments of the article by gotan · · Score: 2

    To my understanding these are the core arguments of the article:

    1) The feasibility of quantum computing is based on the assumption, that the effort (e.g. for error correction) scales with the number of qbits (in the example 1000), not the dimension of the superimposable state vector (2^1000). According to the author it is not yet proven that that is the case.

    2) For a useful quantum computer it must be possible to manipulate qbits (with quantum gates) at will, i.e. move them around and "process" them like we do with classical bits in a classical computer nowadays.

    3) In theoretical concepts of quantum computers perfect quantum gates are assumed, but quantum gates are physical devices. Rotating a spin by 90 deg might be achieved by applying a magnetic field of a given strength for a precise length of time. But in the physical world the precision of such manipulations is always finite, so maybe the result is somewhere between an 89 and 91 deg rotation and the axis might be slightly off too. Such imprecision might even occur when storing or transferring qbits (the information) in/between their physical storage. In lengthier calculations such errors add up, a bit like in analog computers. That would (severely?) limit the usefulness of quantum computers.

    This is very unlike classical logical gates where anything above a certain voltage is interpreted as "1", anything below as "0" and logical gates consist of voltage controlled switches (transistors) in either "on" or "off" state that is clearly defined and leaves a wide error margin in terms of voltage.

    To summarize: The physical world is far messier than the theoretical concepts of quantum computing and it has yet to be shown, that error correction mechanisms to control that "messiness" are feasible.

    These problems are not new, and AFAIK there are theoretical as well as experimental efforts made to counter them. The article presents a very disillusioned view of the advances in that respect and suggests that it might be even impossible to overcome the problems. Sadly, instead of making the points by giving examples of the efforts and the advances or non-advances that were made, a lot of space in the article is simply wasted by pointless comparisons of the number of superimposable quantum states to the number of particles in the universe and the like. The question is not how big that number is but if it really represents the size of the obstacle/necessary effort on the way to quantum computing.

    OTOH it should be noted, that even the theoretical concepts of quantum computing, i.e. quantum information theory, broadened our understanding of quantum mechanics. E.g. experiments on entangled states like EPR, delayed quantum eraser or "quantum teleportation" (which should really be named "quantum state teleportation") can be viewed from a new perspective.

    --
    "By the way if anyone here is in advertising or marketing... kill yourself." -- Bill Hicks
  62. Registered /.ers make you EAT YOUR WORDS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Your software is just fine - well written, functional... I'm going to continue using the Host File Engine by mmell February 17, 2017

    Your premise that hostfiles are a good way to deal with advertising and malvertising is quite valid - by JazzLad April 20, 2016

    his hosts program is actually pretty good by xenotransplant August 10 2015

    his hosts tool is actually useful for those cases in which one does indeed want to locally block stuff outright while consuming minimum system resources by alexgieg September 25 2015

    I like your host file system by Karmashock September 09 2015

    that APK guy, I use his host file by rogoshen1 Tuesday March 03, 2015

    I personally use a HOSTS file blocker produced from a genius called APK by 110010001000 October 27 2017

    * Want more ? Ask & "ye shall receive"!

    APK

    P.S.=> I've DOZENS of registered /.ers liking/using/praising my work & 100,000++ users... apk

  63. No, I'm a Cyberian Tiger vs. Paper Tigers (lol) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See subject & e.g. 'case in point' PROOF https://tech.slashdot.org/comm... especially vs. ZIP the BLOWHARD fool https://linux.slashdot.org/com... w/ nothing REAL or APPLICABLE out there he can demonstrate.

    * That is what KILLS you LAZY do-NOTHING "ne'er-do-wells" vs. me IN THE EYES OF OTHERS per proof https://science.slashdot.org/c... & you KNOW it... lol!

    (& like the REAL tiger? It appears MY KIND producing tools of value + actual REAL WORLD RESULTS is a DYING BREED being replaced by ZEROS!)

    APK

    P.S.=> ... & THAT is YOUR FAULT that YOU are a "CRYberian" (lol) PUSSY (no WAY punks like you = tigers), not mine... apk

  64. IMPERSONATING ME AGAIN? apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    gweihir KNOWS you IMPERSONATE me https://it.slashdot.org/commen... c6gunner proves it https://linux.slashdot.org/com... forgetting to SUBMIT BY AC & f'd up using his registered 'lusrname' instead (just because he tried to mock me both BEFORE & after I FAIRLY challenged him to show he's done better work - he had ZERO).

    YOU EVEN HELPED ME https://science.slashdot.org/c... (& you quit trying to make me look bad by trying to "tell lies" on hosts as "ME" IN YOUR IMPERSONATIONS of me e.g. https://tech.slashdot.org/comm... & regarding Intel speculative execution attacks? Guess what?? Hosts DO PREVENT THEM)

    APK

    P.S.=> LMAO - I totally KNOW that 3rd/2nd to last link above's KILLING YOU that YOU ACTUALLY HELPED ME getting me to see if hosts stop more than portsmash (& Meltdown + Spectre too) & "lo & behold" - hosts WORK by stopping you being INFESTED by what uses them on you - YOU LOSE (& YOU STOPPED TRYING THAT in your impersonations of me, lol) .... apk

  65. Excellent story by Sqreater · · Score: 1

    About time we heard some sense instead of constant cheerleading. Just because scientists and engineers say something is doable and should be done, it doesn't mean there is any reality to the thing. Let's hear more actual opposition based on real science and math to easy plans and projects . I'm sick of hearing breathless pie-in-the-sky schemes that are given the imprimatur of science and tech that are just manipulations for money, position, or fame.

    --
    E Proelio Veritas.
  66. Re:If an elderly but distinguished scientist says. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Appeal to Authority is an informal logical fallacy.

  67. Re:If an elderly but distinguished scientist says. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Clarke was a scientist as well as an author, you should read his opinions again.

  68. some tech/science goes on and on... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    >> a few decades is the maximum lifetime of any big bubble in technology or science

    Depends on the promise. Power by fusion comes to mind. How many decades? How many promises? And yet we're still going..

  69. Cheese with Your Wine by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

    So it is not as easy as those ass hats in Personel implied. Get back to work.

  70. Outside of the Box by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I hate it when my cat thinks outside of the box!

  71. Former QC Researcher here by drolli · · Score: 1

    QC may be impossible (we won't know if we don't try), but for sure not for the misconceived reasons stated in the OP.

    * The point in QC is that to control 2^300 states you need to control 300 qubits, and for Quantum error correcting sequences

    * People started to think about quantum error correction about 2 decades ago, and have come great lengths in reducing the overhead since then

    * The big question is not if it is technologically feasible (would be in latest 20 years from now), but if highly entangled Quantum systems actually behave like we imagine they do (zero guarantee for that)

  72. Re:If an elderly but distinguished scientist says. by McWilde · · Score: 1

    The ultimate consequence of this quote always seems to me that everything is very probably possible.

    --
    Maybe
  73. What is it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What is quantum computing? if it's statistical calculations yes, it is.
    If is atomic nano particles thingies.... no, i highly doubt it.

  74. Clarke's Record Speaks For Itself by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While normally I might like the "Expertise is non-transferable" argument, in this case you are wrong. Clarke's record speaks for itself. None of us here, not you, not me, probably no one on /. right now, has a CV that comes close to Clarke's.

    I'd also point out that Clarke's entire artistic output as a SciFi author was hard SciFi. He wasn't writing alternative fiction about dragons, wizards, orcs and flibbertigibbets. Clarke specialized in taking known science and speculating on where that could take us.

    Clarke predicted satellites. What have you predicted that came true, besides breakfast this morning?

    So yeah, Clarke's opinion on scientists is relevant, on-point and accurate.