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Japan Plans For 100ft Tsunami (thesun.ie)

schwit1 shares a report from The Times: It will shake houses and tall buildings, and unleash a 100ft tsunami on one of the most densely populated and industrialized coastlines in the world. It could kill and injure close to a million people. It will almost certainly come in the next few decades. Now, the Japanese government is making plans to evacuate millions of people in anticipation of what could be one of the worst natural disasters in history (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source). It is known as the Nankai Trough megaquake. The Japanese government has previously estimated that there is a 70 to 80 percent chance that such an event will take place in the next 30 years and that the earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, could kill 323,000 people and injure 623,000. Unfortunately, the report doesn't outline how the government plans to get people out of harm's way. The city with the most people in the danger zone is Nagoya, Japan's fourth largest city and home to 2.3 million people. "The home of the nation's industry Hamamatsu is also at risk and home to over 800,000 people," reports The Irish Sun.

77 of 131 comments (clear)

  1. Trump has the solution by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 4, Funny

    a wall.

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    1. Re:Trump has the solution by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 4, Funny

      Trump has the solution a wall.

      And he'll make China pay for it! ;)

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    2. Re:Trump has the solution by quenda · · Score: 4, Funny

      a wall.

      So does The Times. Not sure which is more effective.

    3. Re:Trump has the solution by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 2

      Pink Floyd also made The Wall, obviously way more effective.

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    4. Re:Trump has the solution by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      And it'll be great, really great, I tell you — so great you won't believe how unbelievably great this wall will be.

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    5. Re:Trump has the solution by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 1, Funny

      Better solution: Settle all of Japan's ageing population near the ocean, and move the young'uns inland. That'll solve two problems at once.

    6. Re:Trump has the solution by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      Nope. Japan has a huge labor shortage, and many aged people keep working (have you ever looked at who drives the million taxis in Tokyo?).

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    7. Re:Trump has the solution by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 1

      Japan has a huge labor shortage, and many aged people keep working (have you ever looked at who drives the million taxis in Tokyo?).

      Retired kamikaze pilots if my experience is anything to go by.

    8. Re:Trump has the solution by Tsolias · · Score: 1

      in a more woke /. :
      quote1: Israel has the solution, a wall.
      quote2: and they made USA pay for it!

    9. Re:Trump has the solution by SCVonSteroids · · Score: 1

      And they didn't even need no education to do it.

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    10. Re:Trump has the solution by neoRUR · · Score: 1

      It might be better to actually dig a very very deep hole and let the water go into it.

    11. Re:Trump has the solution by pezezin · · Score: 1

      Japan doesn't have a labor shortage. What they have is tons of bullshit jobs to pretend that everybody is busy.

  2. Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by mlawrence · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Please, please adopt the metric system like the rest of the world. :(

    1. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Feet are metric. One foot is defined as 3048 mm.

      Besides, "Please, please X like the rest of the world." is terrible reasoning. We would have never invented vaccines, electricity, or the internet with that attitude.

    2. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 4, Interesting

      There are two types of countries in the world. Those that use the metric system and those that have walked on the moon.

      Ironically, to go to the moon they used the metric system...

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    3. Re: Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      Well you need also to learn the conversion tables.

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    4. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

      Please, please adopt the metric system like the rest of the world. :(

      The metric system is boring. English units are full of surprises! I mean, come on - with a joule you know exactly how to calculate it (yawn). BTUs, on the other hand, are a weird mystery involving arcane units and hard-to-remember numbers!

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    5. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by vtcodger · · Score: 2

      "Ironically, to go to the moon they used the metric system."

      Quite possibly not. A lot of the early space work in the US was done in imperial units or a mixture of Imperial and SI. I actually worked with military space programs in the 1960s and 1970s and while I'm comfortable with metric units, I don't recall using them much professionally back then.

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    6. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by vtcodger · · Score: 3, Informative

      All four common options for energy -- BTU, Joule, Calorie, Kilocalorie leave something to be desired. The problem is that the Joule and Calorie are too small to be convenient for a lot of real world stuff. Kilocalories would be better except that folks are prone to leave the "kilo" off and they then get confused with calories. (e.g. the "calories" in food are actually kilcalories) Often it's easier to just work with BTUs (roughly a quarter of a kilocalorie) which are a convenient size and aren't ambiguous.

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    7. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

      Japanese people aren't generally familiar with feet, yards and other Imperial measures, but they do use some non-metric units.

      Some screen sizes are given in inches, although TVs seem mostly to be centimetres. Things like phones are often in inches. Room sizes are typically give in the number of tatame mats that will fit, although east and west Japan have different size mats. In historical dramas they often talk about "ri", which is a pre-metric unit of measurement.

      But not feet.

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    8. Re: Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by iggymanz · · Score: 2

      Look it up, Japan also has its traditional units that are still used in many industries like construction and textiles. They aren't pure metric.

    9. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      Probably.

      It's quite likely they're better educated than the people who aren't bright enough to divide by three when dealing with small numbers of significant digits (y'know like "100 feet" - no they aren't dealing with a 99.5 - 100.49 foot tsunami, and ignoring the possible 100.7 foot tsunami....)

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    10. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      Sure -- Four times the (kilo)calories the seller claims. A 285 "calorie" pizza slice would come in around 980 BTU.

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    11. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

      There are two types of countries in the world. Those that use the metric system and those that have walked on the moon.

      Ironically, to go to the moon they used the metric system...

      And?

      They had a culture and economy that was more concerned with practicality and less with conformism.

    12. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

      Please, please adopt the metric system like the rest of the world. :(

      I know, right?

      Now more than ever (since we now all carry instant pocket conversion computers), we MUST all use the same units! Think of the children!!!

    13. Re: Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      Just measure energy in MHU. It's surprisingly easy. Mad Hulk Units are the future of energy measurement.

      Awkward. Mad Hulk Units scale exponentially depending on how mad he is. Humans have difficulties with exponential scales. Nobody really gets the Richter scale, to be topical. People think the difference between a 6 and a 7 is "a little bit".

    14. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by SuperDre · · Score: 1

      And ironically it was a german (who did most in metric) they needed to get there, and then they screwed it up.

    15. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by Nivag064 · · Score: 1

      There are two types of countries in the world.
      Those that use the metric system and those that have walked on the moon.

      Ironically, to go to the moon they used the metric system...

      I actually learnt most about the metric system from an American Physics text book in 1967.

      Its scary that the country that got on the Moon first elected that dangerously incompetent Trump, who doesn't 'believe' that Global Warming to is real.

    16. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is? by pezezin · · Score: 1

      There are two types of countries in the world. Those that use obsolete units, and that one that put the first man into space and almost 60 years later is still doing it.

  3. That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    I'm just sayin'. Imagine someone riding that mother fucker with a GoPro.

    1. Re: That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      undetectable

      not undetectable ; satellites know where it starts.

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    2. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      The hardest part will be to search the debris to find the go-pro.

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    3. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

      The video I’ve seen of the tsunamis from 2004 and 2011 seem to indicate that your hypothetical GoPro video would actually be rather boring. It’s not like a giant crested wave suddenly hit the land, for the most part - the water started coming in quietly at first, then just kept inexorably pouring in further and further, gradually increasing in depth and building in strength just due to the sheer volume of water.

      When the volume was at its peak, then it did violently respond to obstacles - like the Fukushima tsunami wall. But that was a case of huge volumes of in-motion water suddenly being blocked and having to find some direction which allowed movement.

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    4. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't it depend on where the wave came ashore? I mean they look boring out at sea, but aren't there cases where they get huge and take out massive areas? I'm thinking of the Cascadia subduction zone earthquake in A.D. 1700 in Oregon, for example. Don't you think that had to be a huge ass wave to have smashed that far inland. I don't know man, I'm no geologist, seismologist, or whatever kind of ologist that studies Tsunamis. I don't claim to know, but it seems likely in some situations they'd be massive waves. The trouble would be paddling out to them :-)

    5. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by SCVonSteroids · · Score: 1

      Knowing Japan; they would build a robot to perform this task.
      Would be cool as fuck for sure.

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    6. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

      The only thing cooler than suicide-surfing a 100ft Tsunami would be riding in the chest or helmet of a Gundam-style surfing robot... with a 12ft electric katana on it's back.

    7. Re:That would SUCK. But imagine surfing on it! by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Yes, a tsunami looks like the tide coming in, hence the old name "tidal wave".
      Trouble is, it just keeps on coming until everything is under water, and the horizontal speed destroys everything in its path.

  4. I'm not sure they have the resources by rsilvergun · · Score: 1, Insightful

    to weather such a storm. Not with their economy being what it is. It's times like this that I wish folks could stop wasting time dropping bombs and fighting over who's God is God and just get stuff done.

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    1. Re:I'm not sure they have the resources by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Who has Japan been dropping bombs on and on behalf of what god?

  5. 1923 Yokohama Earquake killed about 250,000 by BoRegardless · · Score: 5, Informative

    People seem to have forgotten the 1923 earthquake and FIRE that destroyed Yokohama and a quarter million lives, without even a hint of a tsunami!

    It was around 7am and people getting breakfast off of wood or coal fires in the homes leading up the hill from Yokohama bay. The quake hit, upset all the cooking fires and lit the upper reaches of the hill on fire and the Westerly winds blowing over the top pushed the fire ... and people who survived down toward the bay.

    Unfortunately, the major industrial port's fuel tanks burst covering it with fuel and oil which quickly lit off when the windborn fires reached the bay and very few people survived. The photos taken by local photographers just after the ashes cooled made Yokohama look almost exactly like Hiroshima after the nuclear bomb. I have a two volume set of books summarizing the events.

    Yokohama harbor had about a 9.5 foot elevation change after the earthquake in some areas. This is a similar elevation change to what was detected in the Seattle area after an earthquake in the early 1700s before westerners populated the area. It is predicted to hit again. Good reason Amazon is looking for another location!

    In other words, there are a whole lot of ways to destroy a city in & after an earthquake and then isolate people after the earthquake when the ground elevation changes wipe out roads, bridges, trains, etc.

    1. Re:1923 Yokohama Earquake killed about 250,000 by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      In other words, there are a whole lot of ways to destroy a city in & after an earthquake

      Interesting, but that was 100 years ago. Sendai (big Japanese city) was strongly hit by the earthquake in 2011 and almost no one died from the tremors or fire, most deaths were due to the tsunami that followed (a few minutes later).

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  6. Retirement cities by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Japan has a big aging population problem. Also a tsunami problem for certain cities. Seems like converting those cities to retirement communities is a solution to both.

  7. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what "slashdot" by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

    Oh children. Japan used to have their very own Slashdot.

  8. If same thing threatened the US by mnemotronic · · Score: 1

    If the same thing was threatening the coast of NY or Florida or California, I can see crossover between the climate-deniers and the trough-deniers.

    Those crazy scientists! There is no trough! It's a hoax! Don't buy into it people! And even if there is a trough, it's not full of tsunami germs. It hasn't been taking earthquake vitamins. It's not an accident waiting to happen, it's just an irrigation ditch. And even an quake or tsunami could happen, it's Godzilla-related, not nature. Godzilla's been doing this for millions of eons. And even if it was nature-related and it happened, there's nothing we can do about it, so why jack up our taxes and spend all that tax money trying to save people who disagree with me? So yea. Why should I be forced to pay taxes to save libtards?!?!

    Lather, rinse, repeat.

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    1. Re:If same thing threatened the US by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      In California we would probably try to do something about it, and probably fail because we would need federal resources and they would be denied us. In NY they would definitely fail because their city cannot be saved from the rising sea by any reasonable means. It's more or less built on it. Florida wouldn't even try, and that particular sand bar can't wash away quickly enough.

      Speaking of which, Japan is screwed. True nanotechnology won't get here soon enough to let them either dome their island and sink it or turn it into a boat and float it away, and without one of those options available, all of their most valuable land is all but guaranteed to be inundated by the sea eventually.

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    2. Re:If same thing threatened the US by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      Florida wouldn't even try, and that particular sand bar can't wash away quickly enough.

      The British Isles would be rendered effectively uninhabitable if it did. The Gulf Stream carries gigajoules of solar energy north every second. Without that sand bar, it shrinks, maybe even stops entirely.

    3. Re:If same thing threatened the US by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The British Isles would be rendered effectively uninhabitable if it did.

      Or if you eliminated foreign foods.

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    4. Re:If same thing threatened the US by mnemotronic · · Score: 1

      The British Isles would be rendered effectively uninhabitable if it did.

      Or if you eliminated foreign foods.

      +1 !

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    5. Re:If same thing threatened the US by Agripa · · Score: 1

      In California we would probably try to do something about it, and probably fail because we would need federal resources and they would be denied us.

      I have a plan - Otisburg.

  9. Balloons by spinitch · · Score: 1

    Can airlift for a while until settles. if during a typhoon then those survival balls might be better but take up more space. Neither full proof but odds improve.

  10. Re:Do Japanese citizens even know what "slashdot" by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

    This is about this slashdot, of course ; Japanese people don't read this one, and thus don't care about what "ft" is. Duh, have to explain everything...

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  11. Trump is right... by kiviQr · · Score: 1

    ... we should build a wall ...along the west coast!

    1. Re:Trump is right... by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Which does raise the question of how big the tsunami will be when it reaches the west coast of N. America.

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    2. Re:Trump is right... by BoRegardless · · Score: 1

      The interesting way the roughly 1700 Seattle earthquake in Washington State was confirmed was that the sediment dating in the state of Washington corelated that data with the "tsunami without a quake" which arrived in Japan without any warning. The Japanese thoroughly recorded that tsunami.

  12. Deadly nuclear radiation by aberglas · · Score: 1

    That is what the Fukashima was all about. Forget about the millions that might drown, focus on the fact that some deadly radiation could escape that kills as many as dozens of people.

    1. Re:Deadly nuclear radiation by G00F · · Score: 1

      NIMBY is less about safety and more about real estate value.

      Further, If the value of land around goes down, then so do the quality of people living there. Their nice neighborhood just got downgraded.

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  13. Not even close by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    That's a negative, Ghost Rider. I have been working in *research* at a *lab* with *air* that has much *force* for almost 30 years. We still use fucking RANKINE. You won't find a single metric tool in our toolboxes. We still have operational PDP-11s and AS400s, Sun SPARCS, and Pentium 90s.

    Go be smart elsewhere. You failed at it here.

  14. Preperation by vtcodger · · Score: 1

    It's interesting that Japan and California actually plan for major earthquakes whereas planning for a repetition of the 1811 New Madrid earthquakes in SouthEast Missouri seems to be virtually nonexistent.

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    1. Re:Preperation by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      It's interesting that Japan and California actually plan for major earthquakes whereas planning for a repetition of the 1811 New Madrid earthquakes in SouthEast Missouri seems to be virtually nonexistent.

      It isn't. You're just not paying attention. Missouri has been replacing hundreds of highway bridges. The new ones are earthquake resistant. When the I-70 bridge over the Missouri River was replaced, the new one has earthquake resistance features. The adjacent span was retrofitted with some such features. MODOT is definitely paying attention, and taking steps.

      Plenty of older concrete buildings are deadly traps waiting to pancake though.

    2. Re:Preperation by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      "Plenty of older concrete buildings are deadly traps waiting to pancake though."

      Agree. Those older buildings, and especially 19th and early 20th century unreinforced brick structures are mostly what I had in mind. California banned unreinforced masonry construction in the 1930s after major damage was done to many schools by the Long Beach earthquake. And they retrofitted a lot (not all) of them in the late 20th century. Modern construction is much better earthquake wise, but I don't think anyplace in the US other than California went back and did something about vulnerable existing structures,

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    3. Re:Preperation by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 1

      The 1811-12 quakes caused damage hundreds of kilometers away, and were felt as far away as the East Coast. But the midwestern U.S. was sparsely populated at the time. A repeat performance would cause devastation across hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. The ENTIRE midwest, Southeast, parts of the Atlantic seaboard, and much of southeastern and south central Canada are immensely vulnerable. I'm near Cleveland, over 1000km away, and I don't expect even we will be fully safe, although our buildings have to withstand strong winds, and that has the fortunate side effect of somewhat protecting against seismic events as well, to a degree. Same with Chicago and Toronto. Elsewhere, I don't know.

  15. Why yes they do by Solandri · · Score: 2

    As cool as the metric system is, one of the advantages of Imperial units is that they're based on intuitive measures. You just have to tell the Japanese person one time, "a foot is about the length of your foot with your shoes on," and they will forever know how long a foot is.

    Unfortunately, going the other way (imperial to metric) is not so intuitive, which is one of the reasons why Americans have thus far resisted the metric system. I was taught the metric system in the 1970s when the U.S. was attempting to switch. About the only measures which i thought were intuitive were your finger being about 1 cm wide, and your hand about 1 dm wide (not that anyone uses decimeters). Alas, it's called a centimeter and not a fingermeter, and decimeter instead of handmeter. So the only way to learn it is through brute memorization. Unlike a foot being the length of a foot.

    c.f. teaspoon vs milliliter, horsepower vs Watt, atmosphere vs Pascals, grain vs gram. The only cool relationship I think the metric system has is that 1 liter of water weighs 1 kg.

    1. Re:Why yes they do by jabuzz · · Score: 1

      Noting that 1 litre (notice I am spelling it correctly here) is a cube with a 10cm edge. From this follows that a 1 cm cube of water has a mass of 1 gram.

      I would note that size of a persons foot varies far too much to equate it to 12 inches.

      A teaspoon is 5ml, I very much doubt the vast majority of people have the foggiest what power a horse has, and besides what breed? I would note that one atmosphere, is basically equal to one bar, because like 760mm of mercury is so bleeding obvious and 100,000 Pascals is not, with the bar being a freaking metric measure you twit. Remember children SI does not equal metric.

    2. Re:Why yes they do by eaglesrule · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, so simple. Until you get to the part where portions of an inch are expressed in fractions. How intuitive is a yard, a mile, or even a furlong?

      The only reason we resist not dumping this archaic system isn't because of a 'foot'. It's because it's impossible to find a metric tape measure.

    3. Re:Why yes they do by pezezin · · Score: 1

      Intuitive my ass. Ok, let asume a foot is length of your foot with your shoes on. How long is a mile then? "Mile" means "thousand", and indeed the original Roman mile was a thousand paces, a pace being around 5 feet. An English mile is... 1760 yards, or 5280 feet. And don't get me started on surface and volume measurements.

  16. I'm not a scientist... by magusxxx · · Score: 1

    ...nor to I play one on television. So if this sounds stupid please be gentle.

    The past few years there has been a lot of talk about rail guns. Which makes me wonder...

    Line up a bunch of rail guns and fire whatever into the wall of water. Would this destabilize the wave and push for force of it away from the shore? Or at least diminish it's size.

    Kind of like pulling a bottom Jenga and having the pile fall forward. Thus stopping it short of hitting any buildings.

    Hey, if it's stupid and wrong, sorry. Just trying to help.

    --
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    1. Re:I'm not a scientist... by SCVonSteroids · · Score: 1

      Short answer. No.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      "The safest course is to get out of its way."

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  17. Re: Do Japanese citizens even know what a "ft" is by iggymanz · · Score: 2

    Absolutely false and ignorant statement

  18. living under the gun by bandersnatch · · Score: 1

    I live in southern Japan under the threat of the Nanaki trough earthquake.

    > Unfortunately, the report doesn't outline how the government plans to get people out of harm's way.

    My local area is expected to be about 7m under water (roughly 22 feet for you Neanderthals) and there are yearly evacuation drills, tsunami siren tests, tall buildings have agreed to be shelters and a lot of money poured into awareness and prep. Everyone is encouraged to work our their evac plan and meeting points in advanced, and most have some form of a bug-out bag. Where I live in particular the elevation is low and there are few tall buildings. Many area senior citizens have a bit of a fatalistic attitude of if everyone prepares but if it happens, they will do what they can but beyond that, who knows.

    1. Re:living under the gun by Ogive17 · · Score: 1

      My wife's family is in the Nagoya metro area, though luckily they live in a small village on the side of a mountain so the tsunami itself would not be a problem. Unfortunately though all the jobs/schools are on the plain which would be swallowed up.

      --
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  19. Round number in Imperial units? by in10se · · Score: 1

    Seems odd that Japan is planning for a tsunami that is such a round number when measured in Imperial units. Are they actually planning for a 30m tsunami?

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    1. Re:Round number in Imperial units? by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      It's called the "30.48 meter plan".

  20. Stone Markers by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

    They should encircle the Island with big stone markers at the 100' wave height that say "do not build below this height" so that future generations don't have to retain the knowledge directly.

    Like the ancient ones uphill from the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

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  21. Re:I have an idea! by nctritech · · Score: 2

    I, for one, definitely want to be in an underground bunker when millions of gallons of water cover the land above me. There's no way that could go wrong. If it does, I'll just hop in my plugsuit and go beat up the weird-looking fleshy robot monsters impeding my survival.

  22. How tall? by volodymyrbiryuk · · Score: 1

    How much is it in furlong?

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  23. we have the best waves by eaglesrule · · Score: 1

    Probably much much smaller than a tsunami caused by the cascadia fault quake that we are due to experience any time now.

    1. Re:we have the best waves by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Which of course raises the question of how big the tsunami will be when it reaches Japan.
      Luckily I'm 800 ft above sea level, still be weird if the town gets wiped out

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