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Tesla Angers Autonomous Vehicle Experts By Promising 'Full Self-Driving' Model 3 (cnn.com)
Tesla's now taking orders for Model 3's with a "full self-driving capability" -- meaning "automatic driving on city streets." CNN reports that experts on self-driving technology "say CEO Elon Musk is playing fast and loose with definitions, overselling the technology and potentially creating safety issues."
Experts say Tesla's "full self-driving" feature is really a partial self-driving feature that handles minor driving tasks such as keeping pace with other cars on a highway and still requires diligent human oversight. To most autonomous vehicle experts, "full self-driving" means a car in which a person could safely fall asleep behind the wheel, and the steering wheel and pedals aren't even needed...
Dean Pomerleau, of Carnegie Mellon University, who in 1995 drove a minivan that steered itself across the country, told CNN Business he has "grave concerns" about Tesla's practices on autonomous driving. "Claiming its vehicles will soon be 'feature complete' for full self-driving is one more step in the unconscionable practices that Tesla is already engaged in with Autopilot -- overselling its capabilities and reliability when marketing its vehicles and then blaming the driver for not reading the manual and paying constant attention when the technology inevitably fails," Pomerleau said.
CNN notes a 2018 study which found that 71% of drivers believe they could already purchase a self-driving car today -- despite the fact that currently there are no such fully-autonomous vehicles. "Experts warn that this lack of understanding could be deadly as humans may put too much trust in systems like Tesla's, leading to crashes...."
"A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on details around the automatic driving option, and pointed CNN Business to fine print on Tesla's order page that tells buyers the currently enabled features require 'active' driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."
Dean Pomerleau, of Carnegie Mellon University, who in 1995 drove a minivan that steered itself across the country, told CNN Business he has "grave concerns" about Tesla's practices on autonomous driving. "Claiming its vehicles will soon be 'feature complete' for full self-driving is one more step in the unconscionable practices that Tesla is already engaged in with Autopilot -- overselling its capabilities and reliability when marketing its vehicles and then blaming the driver for not reading the manual and paying constant attention when the technology inevitably fails," Pomerleau said.
CNN notes a 2018 study which found that 71% of drivers believe they could already purchase a self-driving car today -- despite the fact that currently there are no such fully-autonomous vehicles. "Experts warn that this lack of understanding could be deadly as humans may put too much trust in systems like Tesla's, leading to crashes...."
"A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on details around the automatic driving option, and pointed CNN Business to fine print on Tesla's order page that tells buyers the currently enabled features require 'active' driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."
The silly part is this:
1) They're describing AP/EAP as a level 1-2 system. It's actually a level 3 system with Navigate on Autopilot (e.g. makes lane changes, takes exits, etc).
2) They're describing what's presently available, which is not FSD, as if that's what's being offered as FSD. Which is just ridiculous. What's currently being offered is AP/EAP, not FSD. Heck, they don't even run on the same computer. AP/EAP is HW2, FSD is HW3 (HW2 = GPU, HW3 = custom neural net chip, about 20x faster).
3) What was targeted for the end of this year has been clearly described, both by Musk in interviews, and in the description of the product: that the car can drive in all situations on its own, but you still need a human monitoring it (aka, level 4 autonomy), with an intent to eliminate the driver requirement as soon as is allowed thereafter (level 5 autonomy). The monitoring requirements will remain until regulators are satisfied that its safety record exceeds that of humans. Musk stated that he expects this to require 10 billion or so miles of data.
4) This isn't coming out of the blue. Tesla's internal builds already handle city driving (including Musk himself). You don't have to take their word on it - customer cars are already doing detections required for city-driving in shadow mode (same, but at night here) (These aren't Tesla vids - they're from people hacking the AP system to see what data it's detecting and processing).
You know, it's really easy to attack someone when you render what they say into a straw man. "OMG, Musk is saying that a Level 1 system is FSD!"
I had issues with Tesla selling FSD a year ago, but then again, so did most people, which is why few bought it. Today? Not so much. They've made a lot of progress in the past year. I still think it's going to be a long time before Tesla's safety data is good enough to convince regulators to say, "Yeah, you don't need a human any more" (level 5). But with Navigate on Autopilot, and their clear progress on city driving, I have no issue with them stating that they expect to be level 4 by the end of the year.
When was the last time you ran anywhere? I mean with your own legs, not by pressing 'X'?
It's not known if the person in the first link was on AP. It's at least possible that they were, unlike the latter case. The person in the second case almost certainly wasn't (they were estimated to be driving 70-90 mph on a city street; AP can only be set to 5mph over the speed limit on city streets).
I'd also like to know what car you think can plow through three palm trees in a row and have the occupant be just fine.
As far as I and anyone else I've talked have been able to ascertain, the first case appears to be the first case ever of someone dying in a Model 3. And it took being split in half by a semi to do it. Guess what? For the foreseeable future, people will continue to die in car accidents. What matters is the rate per unit distance driven.
The only thing I'm mad about in the first case is the fact that the US inexplicably does not require side crash guards on semi trailers like we've have in Europe since the 1980s.
When was the last time you ran anywhere? I mean with your own legs, not by pressing 'X'?
Autopilot works in California, Arizona, new mexico where the weather is perfect. I can tell you in Ohio (with newer Honda Civic) my assist features are fooled and/or disabled all the time by snow and rain and metal plates on the road (wants to stop). There is salt residue all over the roads and the lines are hard to see, so the lane assist is messed up also. They have a long ways to go before I trust any kind of autonomous vehicle in this area
So people think they can get in their car and set a direction and set a speed and it will go there. Thus making Autopilot a BAD FUCKING NAME.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
It's actually a level 3 system with Navigate on Autopilot (e.g. makes lane changes, takes exits, etc).
No. That's not level 3. Level 3 is where you don't have to pay attention to it any more. You can read a book or watch a movie while it drives, and when it needs you to take over it will notify you and you have a reasonable amount of time to stop whatever you are doing, take in the situation and start controlling the car.
They're describing what's presently available, which is not FSD, as if that's what's being offered as FSD. Which is just ridiculous.
No. Tesla are selling "Full Self Driving" today. You can go and buy a car with it on their web site right now. And this is how Tesla describes it:
- Navigate on autopilot
- Autopark
- Summon
- Recognize traffic lights and stop signs (coming "later")
- Automatic driving on city streets (coming "later")
That last one is untrue. It will be level 2, drive required to pay babysit it at all times. And none of it is "full self driving".
It seems like they are doing this to try to avoid the lawsuits over not delivering the full self driving that they started selling way back in 2016. They promised you could summon the car from the other side of the country, and it would drive thousands of miles and recharge itself. They promised you could get in, do nothing and it would take you to work, then go off and find a parking spot.
None of what they have announced is "full self driving" by their own standard, let along any reasonable person's definition.
that the car can drive in all situations on its own, but you still need a human monitoring it (aka, level 4 autonomy),
That's level 2. To get above level 2 the car has to be able to operate without supervision. Furthermore, to be able to handle "all situations on its own" is level 5. That's not what Tesla are offering, they are only claiming city streets, and even that isn't true.
Also note that in their last filing Tesla said they did zero autonomous miles in the last year.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Musk doesn't mind taking risks, [with other people's lives]
FTFY
I'm sure it works reliably. The problem is that it is the worst kind of automation. It doesn't require your attention until something urgent happens, which means you're very likely to be fatally distracted doing something else. And it will de-skill the operators so they will quickly forget how to actually drive on the highway themselves.
Anyone using these self-drive systems is setting themselves and people around them up to die.
Assuming you survive... It looks like there was yet another case of Autopilot decapitating a driver due to not seeing a trailer last week.
That's a bit one sided. Last week there were 35 deaths in the UK on the roads caused by good old-fashioned human drivers.
Self driving cars are *never* going to be perfect. And they're going to make mistakes that a fully alert, attentive, skilled driver would never make. But overall how many drivers are any of those things? What about all those overconfident[*], sleep deprived drivers yelling at their kids?
What you never hear of is the time when the human driver would have got decapitated by a trailer due to not watching the road, but the autopilot didn't make a mistake and everyone carried on as normal not noticing.
Statistics will tell us if self driving cars or even autopilots are better than human drivers. I *strongly* suspect they are. Every time I venture on to the road and encounter the usual array of the clueless, the careless, the phone-users, boy racers, texters, fuckwits, arsholes, dickheads, white van men, and Audi drivers I can't help thinking that even crappy autonomous cars would be a step up.
Calling it "autopilot" was a mistake,
In hindsight perhaps? In practice it does much of what an autopilot does. You set it, and it basically flies/drives the thing for you except you're supposed to be paying attention and in control all the time, it can't do every situation and you're meant to take over if things get too hard. Apparently though most people don't know what autopilots in aircraft do.
[*]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority#Driving_ability
SJW n. One who posts facts.
No. $35k before gas savings and credits. For a US buyer the MSRP minus credits is at most $31250, and depending on state credits, as little as $26250 (Colorado has the best state credits in the US). Then there's gas savings on top of that.
See for yourself. "LOL".
All of you people who've been shouting for the past year, "Tesla will never release a $35k MSRP Model 3!", take a lesson in humility from this.
When was the last time you ran anywhere? I mean with your own legs, not by pressing 'X'?
The woman who drove into the parked fire truck at highway speeds did not die, she had only a broken ankle - which is a remarkable testament to how safe the vehicle is built.
When was the last time you ran anywhere? I mean with your own legs, not by pressing 'X'?