Smartphone Shipments Expected To Drop for the Third Consecutive Year in 2019 (idc.com)

Research firm IDC projects: The smartphone market continues to be challenged and 2019 is projected to experience its third consecutive year of declining shipments. Worldwide smartphone volumes are forecast to fall by 0.8% in 2019 with volumes dipping to 1.39 billion. However, the smartphone market will begin to pick up momentum this year with year-over-year growth of 2.3% expected in the second half of the year. Over the long term, smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.54 billion units in 2023.

The current year is expected to witness a new high for technological innovation with the introduction of foldable devices and 5G smartphones. Marketing buzz around 5G is in its early stages but expected to ramp up quickly. And while use cases for upgrading to a 5G device/service remain unclear, it is evident that after 2019 the adoption will begin to attain significant numbers. IDC currently expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for roughly 1 out of every 4 smartphones shipped globally in 2023.

Comments

They are lasting longer

[SuperKendall]

It's not like fewer people want smartphones...

What is happening, is that there is decreasing value in getting the latest model. It makes a lot more sense to wait three years before getting a new phone than it did before... on top of higher prices, people are waiting.

It will be interesting to see what this new slower wave of smart phone replacements as primary market looks like... will phone makers start to not release new models quite so often?

Foldable, maybe. 5G, meh.

[green1]

5G is the future, but there's just no way to take advantage of it in any meaningful way. Sure, it's faster, but I can't really use the existing LTE speed as I could theoretically blow through my data cap in just a couple of minutes, and even the largest available data caps in my country quite quickly. additionally, there's just nothing I would do on a phone that would need that kind of speed.

It's great that they're going that way, but it won't make me rush out and buy a new phone. What WOULD make me buy a new phone is if they had some innovative new feature, but that ship seems to have sailed as every phone in the last 5 years has fewer features than the one before it. (removal of IR ports, headphone jacks, replaceable batteries, HDMI output. Phone screens that claim to be larger, but are smaller due to ridiculous aspect ratios. Materials that are designed to make the phones more breakable). "upgrading" is now seen as a risk to see what you'll be forced to lose just to get a slightly faster processor and an up to date operating system and meanwhile the prices of phones are skyrocketing through the roof (the Note 9 is more than double the price of the note 4, yet has a smaller screen, no ir port, no replaceable battery, and an easily shattered super slippery glass back). I'm not yet convinced that "foldable" is the new feature that would do it for me though, it has potential, but I'm just not sold on it yet.

What phone manufacturers need to do if they want people to keep upgrading is to make the new phone feel like it's actually BETTER than the one they are getting rid of, not just newer.

And do you think this is news?

[aglider]

How many smartphones do you want to sell?
Two for every single human?
Then you won't be able to sell more than 14B devices. 5B is a more accurate estimate.
Then the year after you'll sell only a few millions to replace the broken ones.

This thing of the continuous growth is really really bul15h!t!

Headphone Jacks and Unlocked Bootloaders

[xack]

Why don't you want my money?