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Toyota Is Losing the Electric Car Race, So It Pretends Hybrids Are Better
Ben Jervey from DeSmogBlog writes about how Toyota is "using questionable logic" to claim hybrid vehicles are superior than electric vehicles, when in reality it's only saying that because it decided years ago to invest in gasoline-electric hybrids and fuel cells in the long term instead of battery production. This decision is now coming back to haunt them. From the report: There are at least 12 car companies currently selling an all-electric vehicle in the United States, and Toyota isn't one of them. Despite admitting recently that the Tesla Model 3 alone is responsible for half of Toyota's customer defections in North America -- as Prius drivers transition to all-electric -- the company has been an outspoken laggard in the race to electrification. Now, the company is using questionable logic to attempt to justify its inaction on electrification, claiming that its limited battery capacity better serves the planet by producing gasoline-electric hybrids. For years, Toyota leadership has shunned investment in all-electric cars, laying out a more conservative strategy to "electrify" its fleet -- essentially doubling down on hybrids and plug-in hybrids -- as a bridge to a future generation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. As Tesla, Nissan, and GM have led the technological shift to fully battery electric vehicles, Toyota has publicly bashed the prospects of all-electric fleets. (See, for instance, the swipe the company took at plug-in vehicles in this recent Toyota Corolla Hybrid commercial.)
Last week, at the Geneva Auto Show, a Toyota executive provided a curious explanation for the company's refusal to launch a single battery electric vehicle. As Car and Driver reported, Toyota claims that it is limited by battery production capacity and that "Toyota is able to produce enough batteries for 28,000 electric vehicles each year -- or for 1.5 million hybrid cars." In other words, because Toyota has neglected to invest in battery production, it can only produce enough batteries for a trivial number of all-electric vehicles. Due to this self-inflicted capacity shortage, the company is forced to choose between manufacturing 1.5 million hybrids or 28,000 electric cars. Using what Car and Driver called "fuzzy math," the company tried to justify the strategy to forgo electric vehicles (EVs) on environmental grounds. As Toyota explained it, "selling 1.5 million hybrid cars reduces carbon emissions by a third more than selling 28,000 EVs." As for the "fuzzy math," Toyota's calculation "seems to assume that for every hybrid sold, a fully gasoline-powered car would be taken off the road," writes Jervey. "In reality, many Toyota hybrid buyers are replacing a Toyota hybrid. And, based on Toyota's own revelation that they are losing Prius drivers to Tesla, it stands to reason that many Toyota hybrid drivers would jump at the opportunity to transition to an all-electric Toyota."
Last week, at the Geneva Auto Show, a Toyota executive provided a curious explanation for the company's refusal to launch a single battery electric vehicle. As Car and Driver reported, Toyota claims that it is limited by battery production capacity and that "Toyota is able to produce enough batteries for 28,000 electric vehicles each year -- or for 1.5 million hybrid cars." In other words, because Toyota has neglected to invest in battery production, it can only produce enough batteries for a trivial number of all-electric vehicles. Due to this self-inflicted capacity shortage, the company is forced to choose between manufacturing 1.5 million hybrids or 28,000 electric cars. Using what Car and Driver called "fuzzy math," the company tried to justify the strategy to forgo electric vehicles (EVs) on environmental grounds. As Toyota explained it, "selling 1.5 million hybrid cars reduces carbon emissions by a third more than selling 28,000 EVs." As for the "fuzzy math," Toyota's calculation "seems to assume that for every hybrid sold, a fully gasoline-powered car would be taken off the road," writes Jervey. "In reality, many Toyota hybrid buyers are replacing a Toyota hybrid. And, based on Toyota's own revelation that they are losing Prius drivers to Tesla, it stands to reason that many Toyota hybrid drivers would jump at the opportunity to transition to an all-electric Toyota."
Yes, electric vehicles appear to be the future, but hybrids do have distinct market advantages today: range, refueling infrastructure, and refuel time.
If Toyota's competitors are zigging toward all-electric, it makes competitive sense for Toyota to zag toward an energy-efficient technology that fits better into the state of the current fueling infrastructure. In fact, doing so, Toyota can manufacture more hybrid cars and scale their battery production up when the electric infrastructure, battery storage, and refueling time issues are resolved.
This seems like a smart business strategy to me.
The cradle to grave environmental impact of most lithium-ion batteries is small, especially if CO2 is your primary concern. See for example https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231269141_Batteries_from_Cradle_to_Grave. See also Bingbing Li, Jianyang Li, Chris Yuan's "Life Cycle Assessment of Lithium Ion Batteries with Silicon Nanowire Anode for Electric Vehicles" (which can be found easily online but which I can't link to because the Slashdot filter is unhappy with the very long URL). That's specifically for silicon nanowire anode batteries, which is a pretty common design. The numbers for most others aren't that far off. Note also that as battery recycling and reuse becomes more common, and economies of scale ramp up further, the footprints in terms of CO2 and other pollutants will continue to decline.
This also doesn't make much sense as an issue in the context of Toyota since a hybrid requires a pretty decent size battery also. While previous batteries were nickel-metal hydride for the Prius, the newer ones use a hefty lithium ion battery also. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120320_lithium-ion-vs-nickel-metal-hydride-toyota-still-likes-both-for-its-hybrids. If one thinks that batteries are a big problem, then it isn't clear why one would think hybrid cars are a good thing.
All the "delays" and "missteps" by Tesla are basically waiting for battery price to fall enough to make its promises deliverable. Every announcement of Tesla is met with, "it is impossible". Then as years go by and when people are all berating Tesla for not keeping the promise, the battery price falls enough and suddenly its product is viable and has a positive gross margin!
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
I think the reason why Prius owners are defecting to the Model 3 has nothing to do with EV vs. hybrid, but rather the status associated with the Model 3. The original Prius was a plain boxy car, but the sales really took off when they decided to make it completely odd looking (ugly). When this happened, hybrid owners could drive around displaying how "earth friendly" they are, and everyone would notice them.
Nowadays every other Prius is a taxi/Uber/Lyft, and they're fairly common. Why would someone want to drive around making everyone think you're an Uber driver? The Model 3 got so much press due its delays, and now there's a sort of mystique surrounding it. People will pay attention to you again, and you can claim that you bought the car because you want to save the environment, but in reality, you care about the status symbol more than anything else.
Most plug-in hybrids can't handle normal day-to-day driving without using any gas, because most plug-in hybrids don't have enough electric range for that. The average American commutes 52 kilometers to work, round trip. Toyota's PHEV has an electric range of 40 kilometers. It can't even handle the *average* commute. Most PHEVs seem to be in a similar situation. There are a few that can actually deliver "no gas for normal daily use". The Chevy Volt, with its 85 kilometer electric range, can probably do it for most people.
Toyota is putting a tiny 8.8 kWh battery in their PHEV. Chevy puts 18.4 kWh in theirs. Chevrolet reportedly pays $205 per kWh, and Tesla is supposedly around half that, so Toyota is only saving between one and two thousand dollars by skimping on the range...
Just so we're clear, you're logic there is completely broken.
I for one love to go on road trip vacations, and the time spent behind the wheel is more like 14-16 hours, if want to get to where I'm going reasonably quickly.
I'm sorry, but there is no EV on the market at the moment that's going to last 14 hours. Or even 12 hours, or even 3. Not at highway speeds.
So you're going to be stopping a LOT to recharge. This why I'm still staying away from EVs. They don't make sense if you like to road trip vacation, or do any road trip, or any prolonged driving (EV's are worthless for taxi's for example. And police cars, and buses, tractor-trailers, etcetc.)
There is a very limited use-case for EVs: Commute to/from work, run errands around town. That's it folks. If that's all you need from your car, get an EV. If you wanna drive half a day to get to a national park, forget EVs.
Disclosure: I own a Prius.
Plug-in hybrids use no gas for normal day to day driving
Not really. The gas engine, more complex transmission, gas tank and so on mean you lose a ton of battery space. So in a car that could support a 200mi range battery pack, you get a 30mi range battery pack. Which means unless your commuting is particularly short, you're going to regularly use some gas.
Source: I own a Volt.
The 1st-en Volt battery was 38 miles, and the 2nd-gen battery was 53 miles. The current gen plug-in hybrids all get around 50 miles, as that happens to be the capacity to qualify for the full federal tax credit. Since the median US commute is around 26.5 minutes, most commuters will use no gas for their daily commutes. And since there is zero range anxiety, there is no need for a backup car for longer commutes.
The single biggest problem for hybrids is all the maintenance that's still required due to the ICE, plus complexity of adding the battery/EV side. If you're familiar with gas car maintenance, there's *none* of this: oil/filter change, radiator, timing belt, water pump, fuel pump/lines/pressure regulator, EVAP canister, MAF sensor, O2 sensor, muffler/exhaust/catalytic converter, spark plugs, air filter, tranny fluid/filter, thermostat, power steering fluid, EGR valve, pistons/cylinders/push rods/rockers/heads, ignition relay... I've had to repair every one of those things in my past vehicles (I checked my records). None. of. that. exists. Think golf cart simple (on the mechanical side.. software is obviously complex). For a non-Tesla, long trips are a problem. For Teslas, they have superchargers, making it only a minor issue. 95% of most people's driving is commuting, so this is not really a big deal (especially for a family with multiple cars). By the way, I hope you're putting stabilizer in your gas.
"Truth is not decided by majority vote" consensus gentium -- Norman Geisler
You know, when you're at the grocery store gas station and it's taking "forever" to fill the tank.
What hybrid and gas vehicles need is... very very slow pumping gas stations. I mean, what if it took you an hour to fill up. Suddenly, electric charging makes a lot of sense.
So.. slow down the pumps. Create huge gas lines.
I remember how such things changed cars forever back in the early to mid-70s.
Why does every EV person parrot this bullshit? I have a path for you to walk barefoot that is lined with feathers 95% of the time but lined with nails 5% of the time. It's easy!
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
All what maintenance? Current plug-in hybrids have longer maintenance intervals than current ICE cars, which themselves require virtually zero maintenance as we thought of it for 60s/70s/80s era cars. The dealership service department will tell you otherwise but if you read the recommended maintenance intervals in the manual for a post-2010 vehicle you will see that there is very little routine maintenance up to 24,000 miles and not much after that - even oil changes are now handled by the usage monitor not on-interval. And the plug-in hybrids put a very light load on the ICE engine in typical usage patterns.