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Cringely Pans Self-Driving Car Hype, Says They're Years Away (cringely.com)
In what may be his final year of technology predictions, columnist Robert X. Cringely argues "I can't say that we're going to see anything beyond more beta tests of self-driving cars in 2019... We simply aren't ready and probably won't be for years to come...."
"The problem isn't with the self-driving cars, it's with the cars that aren't self-driving, cars that are driven by idiots like me." It will eventually happen. Once half the fleet has been replaced with cars that could be self-drivers if we allowed them to be, then there will be a huge financial incentive to get the other half off the street. This will be especially the case if climate change is still accelerating. I'm guessing that most cars from 2020-on could be self-driving with only a software upgrade, which is why Elon Musk is predicting Tesla will have full autonomy by the end of 2019. But notice that Elon isn't predicting Tesla will be allowed to have its cars drive themselves everywhere...
So why is the world talking so much about self-driving cars and full autonomy? Some of it is Tesla hype, some of it is marketing as the car companies try to get us to buy cars that will eventually be self-driving, but probably not until their second owners. And the other reason why we're talking so much about self-driving cars is because Uber is planning to go public later this year...an IPO that will go smoother if the driving public thinks autonomous cars are something that we'll be seeing soon. Uber has a labor problem. If it can spin a story that surly and expensive human drivers are soon to be replaced with electrons, that will be very reassuring to Wall Street. But as I explained, it also isn't true.
The world isn't yet ready -- something Uber and Tesla and all the others will suddenly admit in about a year (post-IPO).
Cringely also argues that the problem isn't just the "millions of drivers who are still controlling their vehicles the old fashion way, which is often in a barely competent fashion..."
"We keep our cars longer because they don't rust and we can't afford to replace them so often. The result is that while we could expect a complete turnover in car technology every decade, now it takes closer to two decades."
"The problem isn't with the self-driving cars, it's with the cars that aren't self-driving, cars that are driven by idiots like me." It will eventually happen. Once half the fleet has been replaced with cars that could be self-drivers if we allowed them to be, then there will be a huge financial incentive to get the other half off the street. This will be especially the case if climate change is still accelerating. I'm guessing that most cars from 2020-on could be self-driving with only a software upgrade, which is why Elon Musk is predicting Tesla will have full autonomy by the end of 2019. But notice that Elon isn't predicting Tesla will be allowed to have its cars drive themselves everywhere...
So why is the world talking so much about self-driving cars and full autonomy? Some of it is Tesla hype, some of it is marketing as the car companies try to get us to buy cars that will eventually be self-driving, but probably not until their second owners. And the other reason why we're talking so much about self-driving cars is because Uber is planning to go public later this year...an IPO that will go smoother if the driving public thinks autonomous cars are something that we'll be seeing soon. Uber has a labor problem. If it can spin a story that surly and expensive human drivers are soon to be replaced with electrons, that will be very reassuring to Wall Street. But as I explained, it also isn't true.
The world isn't yet ready -- something Uber and Tesla and all the others will suddenly admit in about a year (post-IPO).
Cringely also argues that the problem isn't just the "millions of drivers who are still controlling their vehicles the old fashion way, which is often in a barely competent fashion..."
"We keep our cars longer because they don't rust and we can't afford to replace them so often. The result is that while we could expect a complete turnover in car technology every decade, now it takes closer to two decades."
And deterministic systems don't handle chaos very well. Even if all the cars are automated, you have people, dogs, deer running into the street. You have blowout tires. You have road damage, debris, snow. Given that understanding a left-hand exit is problematic today, how does it handle a deer dashing on to the road? Or snow covering all lane markings - and heavy enough to block GPS signals?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
What does it add to the mix if we consider the vast number of intoxicated drivers removed from the roadway if autonomous vehicles become ubiquitous?
I am reluctant to drink much when out at social gatherings because I feel the need to remain coherent enough to pass a random LEO roadside interview when called upon to do so. I would certainly consume an additional adult beverage or two if the task of driving home safely was out of my hands. Perhaps we could we get the powerful alcohol lobby behind the implementation of inhuman vehicle piloting.
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.
Ernest Hemingway
"buy cars that will eventually be self-driving, but probably not until their second owners."
;)
In the future most cars won't have second owners. They will just be tech trash after their initial owner.The tech will be obsolete, no parts available to fix, no right to repair even if one can and want to.
Convenient transportation will just become one of those things only the elites that can afford to have. Everyone else will be required to live with sub standard/inconvenient public/private transportation providers
But I am not worried. I am 63 and I might see a full scale deployment, Maybe!
And I am a target audience, but one thing I know, it will be more expensive and much less convenient than having your own vehicle. And it will not happen in the next 5 years, except maybe small test runs in a few urban areas.
Just my 2 cents
My car is 21 years old, still under 100K miles and runs great. There are a lot of older cars out there. The rich tend to forget that most people aren't on 3 year leases.
The only way I can see every car on the road being self-driving before 2050 is if the tech to retrofit an existing car with self-driving features gets so cheap that it can be subsidized for the poor. If it costs say $500, then some equivalent of the cash for clunkers program could pay people to go self-driving. If we can't cheaply retrofit existing vehicles, then we're going to have to wait at least 30 years.
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It's important that distinctions be made when referring to self-driving cars. There are five levels of autonomy and I can only say that this claim that it's "years away" only applies to level five because Waymo has already demonstrated a level four autonomous vehicle.
While it may or may not be true that level five autonomy is still be years off, that doesn't negate the fact that we have level three already deployed and level four in development.
Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
Cringly is a familiar old idiot.
Watson & Crick predicted it was going to take 30 years to sequence the human genome. Venter did it in a fraction of that time, because he thought outside the box.
Just a few years ago I had the pleasure of being surrounded by crusty old defense contractor types who prattled on about how Elon Musk and his stupid little rockets were literally nothing but a flash-in-the -pan publicity stunt. They insisted that self-landing re-usable rockets were not feasible or we'd already be doing it....
Same argument here. Self driving cars are stupid, they don't work well enough, they'll get people killed, they are years away from being practical, Tesla sucks, blah blah blah.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." - H. G. Wells
Have gnu, will travel.
I'd argue that a "strong" level 4, something that can handle something like 90% of the tasks a human driver would be expected to be able to handle, but 99%+ of daily tasks, would still be useful for taxi and similar services. It's more for personal owners that you need full capability. Even a city is an artificial construct, and could handle some modification to better suit self driving cars.
For professional services, if the taxi runs into a problem it can't handle, there could be a central office with trained drivers to get the car out of any sticky situations.
I don't read AC A human right
Those three are: 1) Legal Liability. 2) Fear of the new, and 3) AI not correctly predicting human stupidity.
Issue 1 is a political lobby away from being removed. Some company, like Tesla, develops the technology and pays a political lobby to get Congress to allow the company to self insure all the vehicles they sell - either in the new market or the 2nd hand market - if Tesla sells the used car. Boom, that issue vanishes.
Issue 2 is irrelevant. The first AI vehicles will be commercial vehicles, not cars. Long Haul trucking, Garbage Trucks, Public Buses, will be the innovators. Their companies will all pay attention to long term cost - including the cost to hire drivers, and ignore the human fear. Or they will be beaten in the market by companies that do.
Issue 3 is the only problem without an obvious solution, but technology is ALREADY better than a human in almost everything except this issue. The benefits of slower driving and fewer stupid human first hand drivers already outweigh the lessened ability to predict what a stupid human in the other car will do.
excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
Or some large Western Chinese city, or Japan maybe. What Cringely doesn't appear to consider is that the USA will not be the market that does it first. It used to be that you couldn't introduce a new scheme unless USA the "world's biggest market" adapts first. That's kinda 1990s. He's not using metric.
Gently reply
You also have the Sam Vines boot theory. A good set of boots that will last you for life might cost as much as 5 sets of boots that each last a year, especially if you take care of them, but it's the rich people who will buy the good boots, while the poor stay in the hole buying a new pair of boots every year or less, despite it costing more over the long run.
It's expensive to be poor.
In this case there's a good chance that Gava bought a good car, though I'd argue his car is lasting mostly because he doesn't drive it much. Less than 100k miles on a car that old is extremely low mileage, less than 5k/year, when the average is 12-15k.
I don't read AC A human right
And deterministic systems don't handle chaos very well.
That is why we hadn't been close to getting anything like a self driving car until the re-emergence of practical neural networks.
Neural networks are up to the task because they are fusing info from dozens of sensors and models to determine every second where the car should be moved. The people working on self driving car tech today are building systems can handle any surprise because fundamentally the car is going to try (A) not to hit anything, and (B) go somewhere else if it has to override some laws of the road to do so, in an emergency.
It can basically make a car do anything within the ream of physical ability which is way, way better than 99% of human drivers can do.
how does it handle a deer dashing on to the road?
About a billion times better than a human can, that's for sure. It can see in infra-red, radar and sonar - in 360 degrees, not just straight ahead. It can react and brake quicker. It can steer off the road almost a billion times better than any human would, since it would also be continually considering that semi truck behind you that you totally forgot about when you saw the deer and that cannot possibly avoid hitting you if you stay where you are...
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The only way I can see every car on the road being self-driving before 2050 is if the tech to retrofit an existing car with self-driving features gets so cheap
It's pretty easy to get to a point where 99% of cars on roads are self-driving - you just reach the point where it's cheaper to subscribe to and use a low end car service that takes you door to door, than it costs to maintain and gas a beater car.
Unlike others though I don't see a future where most people use a car service like that, it's nice having your own car with its known interior and stuff you always keep with you. But we'll see how it pans out.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
"The problem isn't with the self-driving cars, it's with the cars that aren't self-driving, cars that are driven by idiots like me."
I've been saying for a while now that real adoption of self-driving cars will not be driven by early adopters, or even legislation. If Google/Waymo is even half right about the reduced accident rate of self-driving cars, the watershed will be driven by actuaries. Because a reduced accident rate also means a reduced insurance payout rate. Once enough of the data are in, the insurance companies will do the math and start raising the rates on human-driven cars. Once that drives a few more people to self-drivers, they'll have even more supporting data. And the insurance premiums will wind up set such that it will be prohibitively expensive for humans to drive their own cars; except, perhaps as a weekend hobby. But certainly, once the actuaries do their thing, none of us will be manually driving for our daily commute or errands.
Imagine all the people...
Probably because computers never get distracted, never blink, never sleep, are capable of knowing the vehicle's exact state at every moment, and can constantly watch a 360 degree arc around them, and that eliminates most of the causes of human accidents.
Karma: Terrifying (mostly affected by atrocities you've committed)
it all has to start somewhere sometime. Might as well start now as the hardest part seems mindsets not electromechanical elements.
The hardest part is the software, which has not seen much improvement in the twenty years or so that we've had SDCs. We threw 1000x resources at the problem since the mid-nineties, and only got a marginal improvement.
What makes you think that this is a near-solvable problem? It clearly isn't.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Or at least the huge numbers we have today. Everyone knows at least one person who has died in a car accident and three times that many people who have been seriously hurt. We accept this stupidly high number of deaths and injuries because we don't see an easy way out. Worse, in most countries we put most of the expense of the accident on the victim for rehab and loss of enjoyment of life. To do otherwise would make insurance rates affordable. As soon as a couple of percent of the cars on the road are self driving cars with better driving records than the average public driver that attitude will change. It won't take long after that until human driven cars are banned.
That he even needs to point this fact out just speaks to the general climate of stupid cheering for things people do not understand. Full self-driving is still at least 10 years in the future and general availability more like 15...20 years. May also take quite a bit longer.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.