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Canada Warming At Twice the Global Rate, Report Finds (www.cbc.ca)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CBC.ca: Canada is, on average, experiencing warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, with Northern Canada heating up at almost three times the global average, according to a new government report. Entitled "Canada's Changing Climate Report (CCCR)," the study was commissioned by the Environment and Climate Change Department and was slated to be released officially on Tuesday. That release date was moved up to Monday after CBC published its story about the leaked report.

The leaked copy of the report says that since 1948, Canada's annual average temperature over land has warmed 1.7 C, with higher rates seen in the North, the Prairies and northern British Columbia. In Northern Canada, the annual average temperature has increased by 2.3 C. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), since 1948, global average temperatures have increased by about 0.8 C. Along with these temperature increases, the CCCR says Canada is experiencing increases in precipitation (particularly in winter), "extreme fire weather" and water supply shortages in summer, and a heightened risk of coastal flooding. The document says that while warming in Canada has been the result of both human activity and natural variations in the climate, "the human factor is dominant," especially emissions of greenhouse gases.

30 of 245 comments (clear)

  1. heat rises by bobby · · Score: 5, Funny

    USA is generating all that heat, and heat rises, and Canada is above USA, so...

    1. Re:heat rises by PopeRatzo · · Score: 5, Informative

      And yet Alaska remains untouched!

      Yeah, about that:

      https://www.popsci.com/alaska-...

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com...

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    2. Re:heat rises by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 4, Informative

      > We have higher personal income taxes than the US

      No we don't.

      https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0411/do-canadians-really-pay-more-taxes-than-americans.aspx

      For most people, defining "most" as "at and below the median", you pay less tax in Canada. That, of course, has many caveats and exceptions.

    3. Re: heat rises by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

      "colder than an anti-vaxxers kid".

      That joke's older than an anti-vaxxers kid.

  2. Urban heat? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Informative

    The Royal Metrological Society in the UK found that 1 deg of the increase was from urbanization, not CO2. Buildings/asphalt absorbing heat during the day and radiating back out during the evening, thereby increasing Tmin (and thus the average). Same effect here?

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    1. Re:Urban heat? by Cyberax · · Score: 5, Informative
      No it hasn't. The UHI effect is corrected for in observations. James Watts tried to find the effect, but no amount of data mutilation has provided positive results. Heck, even YOUR own article states this:

      We generally find weak and statistically insignificant relationships between monthly, seasonally or annually averaged T max and urban fraction (Figure 3). When T max is averaged annually, the linear relationship between this and urban fraction is insignificant (at a 97.7% confidence level) at 0.25±0.42 K. The strongest relationships are observed in the winter months with December having an urbanisation effect of 0.67±0.34 K.

      How much are you being paid to spread lies?

    2. Re:Urban heat? by cdu13a · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Have you been to Northern Canada? Or any part of Canada that is not with in 100 miles of the US border?
      I don't think Urbanization is the problem here.

      https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/04/17/canada-empty-maps_n_5169055.html

    3. Re:Urban heat? by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      That's extremely unlikely, considering how little urban area there is in Canada.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:Urban heat? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Here's some interesting data, see figure 4-2 straight from the report. Because there is a step in the temperature pre-1963 to post-1963, the powers-that-be determined to heat the past rather than cool the current. So the new, UHI-affected data is determined to be "correct" instead of the older, less-affected data. That's called cooking the books - literally.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    5. Re:Urban heat? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      Most data is collected by satellites ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    6. Re:Urban heat? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Informative

      Not for this report. See chapter 4 for where the data was collected. It was individual stations. A grand total of 32 stations - located in towns - across both the NWT and Nunavut. That is for an area of 3.1 million km^2 - a bit more than Western Europe as a whole (Germany through Ireland, not including Scandinavia).

      As far as satellite data, it shows the predictions are all pretty much wrong, and lends evidence to the sensitivity of CO2 being about half the value as used in modeling.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    7. Re:Urban heat? by Pieroxy · · Score: 2

      Average is (Tmax + Tmin) / 2 ??? Damn, you lost me there. That's one hell of a simplification, not mentionning 100% wrong.

    8. Re:Urban heat? by religionofpeas · · Score: 3, Informative

      "Anomalies"? Really? Not "conflicting data"?

      No. Please educate yourself: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/moni...

      Anomalies vs. Temperature

      In climate change studies, temperature anomalies are more important than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly is the difference from an average, or baseline, temperature. The baseline temperature is typically computed by averaging 30 or more years of temperature data. A positive anomaly indicates the observed temperature was warmer than the baseline, while a negative anomaly indicates the observed temperature was cooler than the baseline.

    9. Re:Urban heat? by derrickn · · Score: 4, Informative

      "Towns" in the NWT and Nunavut have no pavement. The roads are gravel and ice, with ice predominating for roughly 10 months of the year. And the roads extend about 1 to 1.5 km total - from one edge of town to the other - and then there are no more roads at all. As for buildings re-radiating heat at night - again these towns are small, the buildings are small, and they never really get all that warm. I doubt Stevenson screens or anything else are picking up much heat off of them.

    10. Re:Urban heat? by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

      There is high correlation between stations up to 1000 km apart:

      https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs...

      What you call "precious little data" is actually quite abundant for a climate scientist.

  3. On the positive side of things... by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 5, Funny

    Canada will soon be a livable country.

    --
    Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
    1. Re:On the positive side of things... by Freischutz · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Canada will soon be a livable country.

      At which point they'll have to build a wall because the USA won't be sending their best people?

  4. Permafrost bomb by doug141 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When the permafrost thaws, the carbon in it starts getting converted to CO2 and methane. There's enough carbon in the permafrost to torch the planet.
    https://phys.org/news/2018-12-...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    Geoengineering options include increasing albedo through deforestation.

    1. Re:Permafrost bomb by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative

      Reminder: Atmospheric carbon PPM is all that separates Earth and Venus. The more you know.

      While that's technically true, the difference is so vast that it's a meaningless comparison.

      Earth CO2 concentration, current: 0.04%, 20 C
      Earth CO2 concentration, worst-case model: 0.2% (est)
      Venus CO2 concentration, current: 96.5%, 462 C

      Also worth pointing out that
      Mars CO2 concentration, current: 95.3%, -125 C to 20 C

      The more you know...

    2. Re:Permafrost bomb by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

      Concentration is meaningless. You need to compare absolute numbers (on a log scale).

  5. No surprise: Same results in Norway by Terje+Mathisen · · Score: 5, Interesting

    All the climate models show that temperatures should rise faster closer to the arctic, here in Norway we have measured the same rise as in Canada, i.e. about twice the global average.

    Norway starts at 58N, North Cape is 71 degrees North. Except for the Gulf Stream Norway would not be habitable at all.

    Terje

    --
    "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"
  6. So does Denmark... by xenobyte · · Score: 2

    But getting longer warmer summers and less ice and snow in the winter makes up for it! :)

    --
    "For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong." -- H.L. Mencken (1880-1956) --
  7. So you know you're wrong but refuse to accept it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You claimed that satellites don't measure air temps. YOU WERE WRONG. So when this was pointed out WHOOSH!!!! went your goalposts and suddenly it has to be 1m. Except that isn't where our weather is, you fucking lying idiot. Nor most of our livable area: we normally use two or more storey houses, both for living and work.

    So the stephenson screen doesn't measure surface air, only spot temperature.

    Unlike satellites which that is all they do: the surface air. All of it. A volume, not a point in space.

    Nor does that fact change you were 100% absolutely wrong and still refuse to accept it, because you're terrified that if you admit it you suddenly have to look again at all the denier tropes you've engorged yourself on and maybe find yourself wrong about many more things.

    And your ego can't handle that.

  8. Re:So you know you're wrong but refuse to accept i by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You claimed that satellites don't measure air temps.

    No, I claimed that they don't measure surface air temperature. There's a standard definition for that, and it doesn't mean the bottom half kilometer of the atmosphere. It means the temperature a small distance above the surface.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Not sure if you're trolling or stupid, but at least this conversation can help to educate others, so I guess it doesn't really matter either way.

  9. Re:On the positive side of things by Layzej · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Some places are not warming at all. Look at the white blob in the north Atlantic. This is possibly a sign that the Atlantic Ocean’s Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be weakening as a result of increased fresh water due to Greenland glacier melt. This was the premise of "day after tomorrow".

    If the AMOC were disrupted, it could divert the Gulf Stream waters that usually flow northward, past the British Isles and Norway, and cause them to instead circulate toward the equator. If this were to happen, Europe's climate would be seriously impacted

  10. Re:What a good thing! by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

    The winters here are frickin freezing. Just a few days ago we had snow, and it's April already, for Christ's sake. I welcome global warming with open arms.

    Unfortunately for you, global warming is only adding a few degrees to average temperature. That's never going to be enough to make winters in Canada disappear.

  11. Sweden too by Misagon · · Score: 2

    Temperatures in Sweden, on roughly the same latitudes as Canada, have also been reported as rising twice as much as the global mean.
    The press release (Swedish) from the Swedish meteorological institute was posted last Friday, and in the newspaper this mornin.

    That temperatures would be rising faster near the poles than the global mean, is right in line with expectations. So nobody around here who is the least bit in the know about climate change is surprised one bit.

    --
    "We mustn't be caught by surprise by our own advancing technology" -- Aldous Huxley
  12. Re:What a good thing! by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It makes them a lot milder though. It's been years since we had a good run of -50C.

  13. Re:Is it bad by Immerman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yeah, the biggest risk Canadians face from global warming is probably Americans deciding we need to expand our borders as our own territory goes to hell.

    A word of advice - take a good hard look at our track record of treaty violations and genocide with nations who offered to share before making any decisions.

    --
    --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
  14. Re:It's all a load of horse shit by slashhax0r · · Score: 2

    Cool story Bro. Where'd you get your Phd In climate?