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The End of the Desktop? (computerworld.com)
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, writing for ComputerWorld : Of course, at one time, to get any work done with a computer, you first had to learn a lot, about computers, operating systems, commands and more. Eventually, "friendly" became the most important adverb in computing circles, and we've reached the point in user-friendliness that people don't even talk about it anymore. Today, Google has shown with its Chrome OS that most of us can pretty much do anything we need to do on a computer with just a web browser. But Google's path is not Microsoft's path. Instead, it's moving us first to Windows as desktop as a service (DaaS) via Microsoft Managed Desktop (MMD). This bundles Windows 10 Enterprise, Office 365 and Enterprise Mobility + Security and cloud-based system management into Microsoft 365 Enterprise.
The next step, Windows Virtual Desktop, enables companies to virtualize Windows 7 and 10, Office 365 ProPlus apps and other third-party applications on Azure-based virtual machines. If all goes well, you'll be able to subscribe to Windows Virtual Desktop this fall. Of course, Virtual Desktop is a play for business users -- for now. I expect Virtual Desktop to be offered to consumers in 2020. By 2025, Windows as an actual desktop operating system will be a niche product. Sound crazy? Uh, you do know that Microsoft already really, really wants you to "rent" Office 365 rather than buy Office 2019, don't you?
But what about games, you say? We'll always have Windows for games! Will we? Google, with its Google Stadia gaming cloud service, is betting we're ready to move our games to the cloud as well. It's no pipe dream. Valve has been doing pretty well for years now with its Steam variation on this theme. So where is all this taking us? I see a world where the PC desktop disappears for all but a few. Most of us will be writing our documents, filling out our spreadsheets and doing whatever else we now do on our PCs via cloud-based applications on smart terminals running Chrome OS or Windows Lite. If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS.
The next step, Windows Virtual Desktop, enables companies to virtualize Windows 7 and 10, Office 365 ProPlus apps and other third-party applications on Azure-based virtual machines. If all goes well, you'll be able to subscribe to Windows Virtual Desktop this fall. Of course, Virtual Desktop is a play for business users -- for now. I expect Virtual Desktop to be offered to consumers in 2020. By 2025, Windows as an actual desktop operating system will be a niche product. Sound crazy? Uh, you do know that Microsoft already really, really wants you to "rent" Office 365 rather than buy Office 2019, don't you?
But what about games, you say? We'll always have Windows for games! Will we? Google, with its Google Stadia gaming cloud service, is betting we're ready to move our games to the cloud as well. It's no pipe dream. Valve has been doing pretty well for years now with its Steam variation on this theme. So where is all this taking us? I see a world where the PC desktop disappears for all but a few. Most of us will be writing our documents, filling out our spreadsheets and doing whatever else we now do on our PCs via cloud-based applications on smart terminals running Chrome OS or Windows Lite. If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS.
It is also the year of the Linux desktop!
Granted sales have been declining steadily but we're about as close to the end of the desktop as we are to End times.
I swear, we get these so often.. desktops are dead / desktops are dying..
Yeah yeah, sure the vast number of phone/tablet/mobile users are a significant portion of traffic.
However I think these fairly regular announcements of the death of desktop computing are ... hyperbolic "outrage bait"
There will always be a place for desktop machines.. PC gaming / VR, Music and video production/editing, development, 3d modeling/ graphic design, all these things are going to keep PCs on desktops for a long time yet IMHO
The Digital Sorceress
1990s - Will terminal services bring the end of the desktop?
2000s - Will the internet bring the end of the desktop?
2010s - Will tablets bring the end of the desktop?
I'm guessing no.
My Other Computer Is A Data General Nova III.
The desktop was always a stupid metaphor to sell computers to businessmen. Although an excusable one.
Actual computer users, as opposed to users of fixed-function appliances that happened to be implemented "on a computer" (cue patent jokes), always by definition needed a programmable open interface, and small modules to glue together with them.
Even professionals who were forced onto desktop systems, made their own programming environments.
Businesses made their spreadsheeds (a form of functional programming), and 3D designers/engineers had full customizable software (like Maya) with easy scriptability.
The iDiot generation was the first who had never encountered that side of things before. And they want to be at the helm of cultural development now. Precisely becuase they are so oblivious to literally all the things. So they of course declared everything not like iOS nor for consumers outdated and useless.
But anyone who wants to actually *make* anything at all with computers, *will* sooner or later long for programmability. Even if never before seen.
So Linux, the OS of actual computer users, is so successful, precisely because it's not a desktop OS.
Wasn't the desktop supposed to be dying 15 years ago, when tablets first started coming out?
We have cars. We have SUV's. We have minivans. We have trucks. We have motorcycles. No single one of them is in danger of extinction, although sales vary between the groups from year to year. The desktop is also here to stay. Only a desktop can provide the raw computing power, the flexibility, the ease of modification and programming. Try to switch the graphics card on your tablet. Try to program your console.
Now we can argue that not everyone needs or wants a desktop - I agree. But dead? Never.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.