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Gartner and IDC Agree: Global PC Shipments Fell To Exactly 58.5 Million in Q1 2019 (venturebeat.com)
The PC market is still in decline, according to research firms Gartner and IDC. That's nothing new for the duo to agree on, but coincidentally they also (for the first time?) estimated the exact same number of PC shipments: 58.5 million in Q1 2019. From a report: Gartner and IDC also both found PC shipments were down globally year-over-year. So far, 2019 looks like more of the same. After six years of quarterly PC shipment declines, 2018 brought a positive Q2, a flat Q3 ... and then a negative Q4. Gartner and IDC analysts have pointed to CPU shortages as contributing to this past quarter's decline. But that just seems to be an excuse for reality: The PC simply isn't as in-demand as it once was. The top six vendors were Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, Asus, and Acer, per Gartner.
They aren't in as much demand, but there is s significant demand. But a combination of slow innovation, and being split with virtual machines, laptops, cell phones and tablets has put their demand in check.
I wont give mine up, but i don't have 6 of them anymore either, and only upgrade every 3-4 years.
No, I'm not trying to be ignorant in my question. It's rather valid when you consider TFA has pictures of a tablet, a more traditional laptop, and then what appears to be a Surface with a detachable keyboard.
So, I'll ask again, what is considered a "PC" these days? Tablets? Phablets? Touch-screen enabled laptops? Detachable vs. attached keyboards?
And since we now do all the same shit on smarthphones that we do on other computing devices, are smartphones considered Personal Computers? If not, why? (You really can't get any more personal than the computer you carry in your pocket all day)
A shift in form factors is what we're really talking about here, so let's cut through the usual hype/bullshit reporting and understand definitions before labeling it a "decline" in sales.
Not going to do any real work on a Cell Phone.
Facebook and Twitter are not Work.
I used to buy a very small PC to watch media with. Since HECV became popular the price of a build went from $150 to $450 so now it makes a lot more sense to just buy an Android box.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
Exactly 58,500,000 units? Amazing. It's like that moment you watch your odometer roll over 100,000 miles.
58,500,000 not one more. Not one less. No grounding up or down.
Or exactly does mean something different.
Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
So, I'll ask again, what is considered a "PC" these days?
I personally define a personal computer based on lack of certain restrictions on the operating system's part. A PC is a device such that the person who owns it controls what computing is done on it. By this definition, an Android device is a PC, as it can run Termux. So is a Chromebook capable of running Crostini. Some devices require an additional purchase to turn them into PCs: an iPad needs a Mac, and a Nintendo Entertainment System needs an EverDrive and a PC capable of mounting SD or USB storage.
Gartner and IDC methodologies differ from mine. To them, PCs are desktops (including workstations), plus notebooks (including Chromebook) whose keyboard is permanently attached. Handhelds, servers, tablets, and detachable notebooks are not part of what they consider the "PC" market segment.
Standard physical interfaces? So I'm assuming Gartner and IDC aren't counting any modern Apple laptops then.
USB 3 over C-type connector is a standard physical interface defined by USB IF.
Tablets and Netbooks are capable of "integrating with a third-party hardware and peripheral devices via standard physical interfaces."
On a pre-2013 netbook, I could edit and compile a program to run on the same netbook. The same is true of a Chromebook that supports Crostini or an Android tablet that runs AIDE or Termux or GNURoot. It's not quite as true of an iOS device; I've read that programs built in Swift Playgrounds can't integrate with iOS the same way as App Store apps, and I haven't read about a counterpart to the iPad-only Swift Playgrounds for even an AirPlay-docked iPhone. (Correct me if I'm wrong though.)
In addition, the Lightning connector isn't quite as "standard" as USB C in the sense of being a format maintained by a multi-vendor body and licensed royalty-free or uniform-royalty.
The average person gets by just fine with a phone to handle all their computing needs in a way that is about 1000X easier for them than a generic PC
Does "the average person" never write a long email or blog post or forum post? Or does "the average person" prefer to pair a Bluetooth keyboard to a phone?
they can carry it around in their pocket and use it from Starbucks.
That's one reason why I carry a compact laptop: to get work done while waiting for someone in Starbucks.
The author conveniently forgot to mention that the number fell from 61.3M which in relative terms is less than 5%.
It's been nearly 35 years since I started using a computer for routine tasks. There simply aren't many new routines to computerize. For that reason, and I'm happy to say for that reason alone, computers will last longer and longer.
Routine one was numbers, think spreadsheets. I managed my elementary-school baseball pool in lotus 1-2-3. Yes, today's spreadsheets are "better", but they don't address any new routines. Once we had charts and graphs, that was it. Don't cry to me about pivot tables that no one uses.
Routine two was writing, think word processing. I put it second to numbers only because numbers needed computers, where writing didn't. But fast writing did. My essays were done in Wordstar for the longest time. By the time fancy fonts came around, we were done. Again, don't cry to me about tables and pictures, that's next.
Routine three was publishing & layout. I used PrintShop -- yeah, I'm calling ten-foot-long birthday banners layout. What of it?
E-mail (desperately trying to remember my first client, really can't, probably compuserve), web browser (duh, ncsa mosaic), music (winamp, still), graphics (jasc paintshop pro), audio (audacity), video (not me), programming (ultraedit since the dawn of our careers).
Add various messengers (ICQ) as the dawn of social media if you will, and newsfeeds (pointcast) as the now-dead origins of podcast directories.
The point is that with the singular exception of "MORE GRAPHICS", be it larger video, more 3d, raytracing, and bigger and bigger games, I think we're finding that there aren't any more parts of life to computerize.
Considering your life five years ago, compared with today, I doubt most people will find any significant routine that is computerizable today, that wasn't five years ago -- leading to the conclusion that a five-year old computer would be just fine.
There was a time when last year's technology was completely useless. Burn a music CD in an hour, but need three to get through failed attempts, or burn a CD in five minutes with ease. Last year's machine couldn't play a single new game, and would never be able to ever again. Can browse the internet, or can't. Could print in colour or black and white only.
We ain't there no more. Windows Vista needed near-brand-new hardware. Windows 10 could run on twenty-year old hardware. The vast majority of businesses today, that existed twenty years ago, don't need anything different than they had twenty years ago. It's hideous, but my local lumber yard uses machines and software from my Wordstar days. They sell wood just the same.
My local hydroponics store still uses carbon paper. I bet you can guess why.
I have questions about the data in the report:
1. does this include small systems such as Raspberry PI et al?
2. does this consider people building machines from parts?
Personally, I think people who want or need access to more robust workstation systems for gaming, number crunching, etc, will be able to buy or build the systems they need, for the foreseeable furture because:
1. Business runs on white box systems - including the services behind all of those hand held devices at the other end of the network connection.
2. E-Sports is not just about consoles - and we're talking $billions there.
Your average person who could care less will be fine, and so will those of us who work in the field, play video games, or need to be able to number crunch. Will how people doe these things change? Certainly, but maybe for the better in some ways - particularly for people who may need one of those functions infrequently - they don't have to invest in expensive equipment to leverage cloud based resources through their phone. For the geeks remaining - we'll all be fine.
Lodragan Draoidh
The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it. - Mark Twain
Whitebox systems are used extensively in cloud computing...so the fear that the manufacturers are simply going to stop building systems that form the backbone of the services provided to those billions of cell phone users is ludicrous.
Now are things evolving? Certainly - as systems become more efficient over time, the numbers required drops - this is planned on purpose to make running those data centers cost effective. Which also means that the evolution and development of CPUs and the technologies surrounding will also continue - and as long as there are people willing to pay - there will be manufacturers building them, and people writing software to take advantage of it.
That being said, does that mean you'll be able to go down to your local BestBuy - and pick up a fully integrated/built gaming rig? Maybe not at some point, but you'll certainly be able to find the parts to build your own. With E-Sports going gangbusters - there is still demand for tweaked gaming rigs.
Finally - when all those youngsters get old, they are not going to want to be squinting at a tiny little screen through their bifocals...which may move some of them back towards stand alone systems - perhaps in a bit of a different form, but the idea is the same - and someone will be building those systems for that market.
Lodragan Draoidh
The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it. - Mark Twain
There was literally an article posted last week that claimed the same thing, the PC's are dieing.
I said it before and I'll say it again. The PC market isn't dead, its mature. At this point the majority of new sales are to replace attrition. A PC from 2019 is not a big enough improvement over one from 2018 to justify the year over year sales growth the industry became accustomed to seeing. Now you are looking at closer to a 4-5 year replacement cycle. And depending on usecase you don't even need that.
It used to be that the new shit was so much more capable than the year before that not only did it make sense to rapidly upgrade but it was often necessary to do so. It hasn't been that was since about 2012.
There is no longer compelling reason for most people to buy a new PC every 4 years
In my experience, the most compelling reason to replace a laptop or tablet PC after several years is that the manufacturer is no longer making replacement rechargeable batteries for the old model, or a new rechargeable battery would cost almost as much as a new PC.
With Intel having manufacturing problems and retailers being stupid and not offering many Ryzen based machines, it is no wonder that sales numbers are seen as going down. Ryzen 3rd generation is a couple of months away from release, which is going to cause many to wait for the new generation. Custom builds and computers from smaller vendors are probably up. Also, there has been very little advertising to inform the general public that consumer grade desktop machines can now have 8 core processors in them, and if people have a dual core processor in their computer, they will get a BIG upgrade in performance by going to a 4, 6, or 8 core processor in their next computer.
Won't it *always* be exactly something -- or do vendors sell PCs in fractions now?
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
And will continue to be around for a long, long time. These numbers are high enough to support a number of mainboard and component makers.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
I did include games and 3D, but it's buried in the middle somewhere.
Computer hardware will always and forever grow -- I still remember wondering why the hell any graphics card would need 8MB of ram. That was before 3d of course, and before HD too.
The thing is that all of that computer hardware, going forward, is exclusively for computer industries -- computer graphics, computer-generated video, computer-generated audio, computer-generated 3d printing.
But any company that sells lumber, or white socks, or headphones, or water bottles, or travel arrangements, or or or, is already computerized as much as possible. There is nothing more to gain in the foreseeable future. What's a lumber yard going to computerize next that needs more hardware than is available today? Simulating which wood fibres termites would eat first?
Outside of direct-computer industries, there really aren't any routines left that require more hardware at this time. Computers are already pretty gosh-darn-good at what they do. And as you've alluded, we're a long way from them being able to do anything more.
And yes, I mean self-driving, self-flying, self-anything. Anyone currently going nuts to produce millions of lines of code to self-drive anything, good-on-ya for paving the way through the research stage. It won't work until it's way way way simpler. I swear to you that my human brain doesn't perform advanced calculus when I drive, just like it doesn't when I path-find around my office.