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New Registrations For Electric Vehicles Doubled In US Last Year (techcrunch.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from TechCrunch: Electric vehicles, still a small percentage of the total automotive market in the U.S., are beginning to gain ground, according to analysis by IHS Markit. There were 208,000 new registrations for electric vehicles in the U.S. last year, more than double the number filed in 2017, IHS said Monday. That growth in EVs was heavily concentrated in California as well as nine other states that have adopted the Zero Emission Vehicle program. California was the first to launch the ZEV program a state regulation that requires automakers to sell electric cars and trucks there. Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont are also ZEV states.

California accounted for nearly 46 percent, or 95,000, of new EV registrations in 2018, IHS said. California has 59 percent of market share of registered electric vehicles in the U.S. More than 350,000 new EVs will be sold in the US in 2020. Those figures will give EVs a still tiny 2 percent share of the total U.S. fleet. By 2025, that figure is expected to rise to more than1.1 million vehicles sold or a 7 percent share, according to recent IHS Markit. The Tesla's Model 3 is the top selling all-electric in the U.S. so far this year, followed by the Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model X, Tesla Model S and the Nissan Leaf, according to estimates by Inside EVs.

7 of 169 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Expect lots more in CA by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 3, Informative

    Well, in BC WA OR CA there's an electric charge spot everywhere, plus most new housing is required to have solar on it. That plus our electric base cost around here is maybe 1/20th to fill up that gas is for the same distance. We'll all be 100 percent green electric in less than 10 years, plus electrics cost half to pay for maintenance what gas costs.

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  2. Your ICE car will soon be obsolete and worthless by mspohr · · Score: 4, Informative

    https://thinkprogress.org/elec...

    Plummeting battery prices to make electric cars cheaper than gas cars in 3 years
    A Bloomberg bombshell.
    Achieving parity for upfront, initial cost means that the buying decision for electric vehicles (EVs) is about to become a no-brainer.
    That’s because EVs are already superior to gasoline cars in many key respects: they have faster acceleration, much lower maintenance costs, zero tail-pipe emissions, and a much lower per-mile fueling cost than petrol cars, even when running on carbon-free fuel.

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  3. Sounds impressive, but... by Kernel+Kurtz · · Score: 4, Informative

    There were 208,000 new registrations for electric vehicles in the U.S. last year

    That's less than a quarter of the number of F150s Ford sells in a year.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...

  4. Re:My colleague just bought a Tesla by starless · · Score: 3, Informative

    Only old people use fossil fuel vehicles anymore.

    Or people who live in apartments with no place to charge their cars overnight.

  5. The increase is not market-driven by Solandri · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's required by regulation. California has a ZEV mandate. California's Air Resources Board (CARB - they set California's air quality standards) requires each automaker to sell a certain percentage of ZEVs (zero emissions vehicles) and PZEVs (partial zero emissions vehicles - i.e. hybrids). The program began in 2009, and each year the percentage increases. The formula combining these two is a bit complex, but for 2018 the requirement was 4.5% combined ZEVs, and 2.5% total ZEVs (battery EVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles). By 2025 it will be 22% combined ZEVs, with 8% total ZEVs.

    If an automaker fails to meet this percentage, they must buy credits from an automaker who exceeded it. This is why Musk started Tesla - he realized that with the ZEV mandate, even if he lost money on each EV he sold, he could remain profitable by selling the ZEV credits to other automakers. I also suspect this is why Tesla has been so slow to ramp up Model 3 production. It is beneficial to Tesla to try to delay those sales until later years when the ZEV mandate percentage is higher, and there is more demand for the ZEV credits. Right now most of the automakers are managing to hit the requisite percentage on their own (of the major brands, only Honda and Toyota missed the target last year, and had to buy credits).

    If an automaker fails to buy enough credits to meet the required percentage, they are banned from selling cars in California. And since about a dozen states representing about a third of the U.S. population automatically adopts CARB's guidelines, the automaker would be banned from selling cars in those states as well. No automaker wants to be cut off from a third of the U.S. market. So they're all busy rolling out EVs to comply with CARB's ZEV mandate. Towards the end of the year, if it looks like they won't sell enough EVs, they start slashing the prices, even selling/leasing them at a loss to try to meet the percentage. This is why all the great EV deals were only in California - only EVs sold/leased in California counted towards the mandate (that is changing - starting this year EVs sold in other states will count as well).

    I'm not saying there isn't demand for EVs - there almost certainly is. But the growth in EV sales is not an indicator of organic market demand. The growth is mandated by regulation, so it's the tail wagging the dog. In a free market manufacturers sell the vehicles at a modest profit, and the price determining demand. But the current situation with EVs is that the manufacturers drop the price (even selling EVs at a loss) until there's enough demand to meet the ZEV mandate percentage for the year.

  6. Re:My colleague just bought a Tesla by Barsteward · · Score: 3, Informative

    A lot of the newer EVs have a camper mode where you can have the heater on all night if you want, it shouldn't drain the battery too much as they use the more efficient heat pumps rather then conventional heating. Check out Bjorn Nylands videos, he sleeps in his car on some of his EV tests in Norway.

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  7. Re: My colleague just bought a Tesla by laird · · Score: 4, Informative

    I think your idea of charging times is a bit dated. A Tesla Supercharger can get you 75 miles of range in ten minutes, and a full charge while eating lunch. I've found that if I head out for a long drive early, I can drive a few hours between stops, and breakfast/lunch/dinner work out as naturel breaks. Yes, it's a little slower than driving continuously, but it's a lot nicer and a lot cheaper. Atlanta to Orlando cost 1/4th as much in my Tesla than it did for gas in my Honda Odyssey, and it's way more relaxing to drive with AutoPilot, etc.