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Information Appliances, Linux and Computers
This editorial
in Mac opinion discusses
the way Microsoft's competitors may attack Microsoft: making
computers irrelevant by replacing them with information appliances.
This could lead to an increase in computer prices -- economies
of scale no longer apply.>
At SCO Forum in 1997, Douglas Adams (of Hitchhiker's Guide fame) gave an interesting talk on the identity of the desktop PC. His conclusion: It's a "modeling device" -- something that can very easily be transformed (via programming) into just about anything you could want. It's a television; a typewriter; an arcade game; etc. But in each of those cases, having the "real thing" is generally an advantage. (Probably won't be cheaper, and it's harder to upgrade. On the other hand, you don't have to muck around with IRQ's and kernels and passwords -- things that are prohibitively complex for the average Joe -- just to type a letter to your grandmother.) Douglas added that it's only when you stop noticing technology that it becomes mainstream and useful. As an example, think about the ubiquitous microwave oven or VCR. Do we ever stop to think about the computer that's running them? How about the computer that's so cleverly managing the fuel injectors in our cars? Furthermore, when was the last time one of these computers crashed or got a virus?
:-)
This talk made a big impression on me, and it's one of the reasons I now specialize in embedded systems. Embedded processors don't have to be specially designed for a particular application, and many come with all sorts of standard peripherals on the same chip as the CPU. This means that they can be mass produced and plopped into all sorts of devices with a minimum of effort. Think back to the industrial revolution and what the assembly line did for consumer goods... Now imagine the same sort of revolution happening right now for CPU-enhanced consumer electronics.
Therefore, my first prediction is that the embedded market will continue to explode even faster than the desktop PC market. Think about it: The average household in the USA has 1 desktop computer. The average household has dozens (if not hundreds) of applications for embedded processors, and that number will continue to increase. (The average new car today has between 10 and 50 microprocessors hiding in it.) I predict that a lot of tasks for which we use PC's today (and for which MS wants us to continue to use PC's) will be offloaded into embedded systems over the next few years -- if only to make them more accessible to those who are not among the technical elite. Which is easier to play games on: a PC or a Nintendo 64?
But what about the WWW browsers, spreadsheets, and desktop publishing apps? In other words, what about the apps that are harder to turn into convenient consumer electronic devices?
Prediction #2: these will be taken over by public service companies...companies that will probably evolve from present-day ISPs. Put Linux in non-volatile RAM in a "network computer" -- something with an X server, a web browser, and a small amount of local storage. Connect this via a high-speed link to your ISP. The ISP has a mainframe (or a network of load-balancing rack-mounted machines) doing application service to the at-home boxes. Software upgrades, backups, etc. are done transparently, and average Joe who doesn't known a PCI bus from a PID doesn't have to worry about them.
In conclusion: The desktop PC is useful to the technically-savvy among us, but is scary as all heck to the remaining 95%. The only reason it is so prevelant is that MS has been pushing it at everyone. Ten years from now, it will have vanished, replaced by inexpensive network computers and embedded devices; viruses and OS crashes will become amusing anachronisms. Linux/UNIX will still be around for the developers and for those of us who like to tinker. The network computer market is up for grabs, though. If the AOL/Netscape/Sun conglomerate play their cards right, they have all the tools to win it from MS, and MS's glory days will fade into the history books.
Just my 2 cents.
Each appliance will be built with the assumption that you don't have any of the other appliances around. Here's an example:
I've been in the market for a 27" TV for about two months. I really want to get a Sony that has S-Video. However, the lowest-cost one that fits that is $499. Now what do I get for $499?:
Super surround sound (already handled by receiver)
smart sound (already in receiver)
dual tuner picture in picture (have cable box)
Super menu functions (in VCR/cable box)
Now, I can understand why I might want that functionality. But...why should I be paying $100 for functionality I don't use?
There's your example for the "appliances". No assumption that you have other appliances to handle other functions for you.
Now take a look at a TV that is just a TV. No audio out, no extra idiot functionality, no other crap in it. But it does the job well. But you need to have a VCR to change channels, and a receiver to handle the audio. Each item in the entertainment center is specialized to do one thing (audio/video/CPU/storage), and do it well.
There's an example of the current state of PC affairs. I'd rather have a plain 'ol TV that just had a good picture.
look at this InfoWorld article. Microsoft is working with Intel to create a Windows dependant motherboard.
Codifex Maximus ~ In search of... a shorter sig.
HEHEhehe...
Codifex Maximus ~ In search of... a shorter sig.
Think Netwinder/Qube, folks. If AOL or anyone else decides to use Linux to compete head-to-head with Windows boxen for Internet appliances, there's no sense using Wintel hardware. After all, you're talking *millions* of boxes. Economies of scale and standardization apply.
:}
Use a StrongARM, or some other dirt-cheap RISC CPU. Add a 15" monitor, one of the new IBM miniature disk drives, and an ethernet port. The whole thing should be no larger than a telephone, except for the monitor and keyboard (infrared makes sense here!), and should cost well under $100 sans monitor to build. At THAT price point, giving boxes away makes a lot of sense.
Hand me that airplane glue and I'll tell you another story.
In case you haven't noticed, Intel's marketshare in the low-end microprocessor market has been eroding faster than the Louisiana coastline.
They are actually being dominated by AMD in certain sectors. That's a pretty radical shift, and I would say signals a certain amount of trouble.
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Right now the TV Guide from the Internet idea has been implemented in WebTV. That and Wince devices hardly make Microsoft irrelevant in the appliance market.
Admittedly, people probably don't care what OS their cell phone or remote control runs, although a full blown hand held unix would be geekycool for some.
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Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
Well, in the mainstream computer market, complexity wins over a simple well focused solution almost every time. Look what happens when a new version of MS Office or Windows comes out. IS departments practically have to beat back the users that want to install it.
However in the home market, dedicated devices make logicial sense. My mother, who couldn't use a Mac for the life of her, got up to speed on a WebTV in about 15 minutes.
Yet, almost every attempt (with the exception of the WebTV and PalmPilot) at a "information appliance", going back to the original Macintosh, the Atari XL game unit, hundreds of telco and cableco expirements in home shopping and "infotext", the AmigaCD, the Pippen, AT+T's tablet computer, the Newton/eMate, cell phone computers, modems for Segas+Nintendos, and so on all have failed quite dramatically.
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Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
IMHO, I don't see the "apppliance" to really be the future of personal computing. They may dominate in the home environment and they will probably be integrated with everything from your TV to your fridge, but people will always need powerful machines requiring powerful operating systems, with powerful software.
:)
These systems will come in many shapes and sizes like they do today... but they will always be there. Linux, MacOS X, Windows, Unix they'll be with us forever.
I want some of that theoretical biological computing... using neurons and stuff. Wow, fast, complex, dream
Sure, there will be a market for something other than appliances, but that doesn't mean that there won't be a market for appliances.
Answer honestly. How many people do you think would be well served by an appliance that did nothing but run an e-mail program, with HTML formatting, a good web browser, a news program, a chat client, and a streaming media client which supported the major formats? This appliance would just work, it would be available in less than 15 seconds, it would not crash. New functionality would be added seamlessly without user interaction.
Such a device could even keep me happy for weeks at a time.
What about a similar device that could also play playstation games and open and create Microsoft Office documents?
I think that these features would satisfy most low end computer buyers, which could have repurcussions for the hardware market.
Certainly these appliances would create greater need for servers and network equipment, but what would happen to the low to mid-range PC market. Would it whither and die, or would it survive as the back pasture for technologies originally developed for the high end.
(gosh I love when this issue pops up)
From an administrator's POV, I'd imagine it would be great to see thin clients begin to replace PCs. Imagine only having to administer one box, maintain security in one place, and worry about hardware failures in one rack.
Everyone (on slashdot anyway) always tries for the arguement about wanting to do X on their machine that you can't do from a thin client. Then you, as a knowledgable user, can maintain your own system, with your own peripherial Y that does what you need. Be it video capture, some special joystick, or 3d accelleration. Geeks like slashdot users are the exception.
I'd even be one of the thin client users. I'm sure that as you're reading this, you think of yourself as one of the exceptions above, but how often do you REALLY do something out-of-the-ordinary with your system? To tell you the truth, all I ever do is: 1. netscape (for mail and browsing), 2. lyx, sc, and the like (or "Word" "Excel" "Powerpoint" for you MS people) 3. ssh, and 4. quake. Theoretically, most games could be played on a thin client. For the fancy ones, I could deal with moving using another platform. Now, what do YOU do that's above and beyond that?
Long live Larry Ellison and his dream of centralized computing!
-Chris
You might as well ask "who wants all those single-purpose Unix text processing tools? Why bother with sed, grep, awk, perl, troff and some random editor when you can get BogoWord '99 which does everything in one package?" Some people prefer one big monolithic application, some people prefer lots of small tools.
I have a feeling that the same argument can be applied to hardware. Some people will want to keep their all-in-one computing box. Other people will prefer several small appliances.
By God you're right! I predict that in ten years we will have given up the home PC in favor of (insert favorite item here) for several obvious reasons...
How many years have we been hearing about the death of the PC? I agree that the PC's place in our lives will change, but in one way or another it will always be there.
"Responsibility for my career? I'm just a freakin' phone monkey!"
It's a thankless job, but I've got a lot of Karma to burn off
I am an engineer at a large printer company (no, not that one), and we mada a printer a few years ago that combined a printer, scanner, and computer (with modem) all in one box, with at the time cutting edge technology. Result? Big flop.
The problem is it was not easily upgradeable and looked scary to uninformed users.
"Responsibility for my career? I'm just a freakin' phone monkey!"
It's a thankless job, but I've got a lot of Karma to burn off
It's actually about a network where devices have access to the information they need when they need it, and the devices are not general-purpose computers with Red Hat Linux, a keyboard, and a 5-ton monitor attached. Take a look at the Ninja project at Berkeley. Think about what Sun's Jini was supposed to do.
They're selling CD players now that can hold more CDs than most people own. Why the hell should you have to remember that CD #241 is "Garbage / Version 2.0". Worse, what good is it if you have your entire music collection in a device and you still have to futz with it every half hour at a party to get a reasonable music rotation going?
Why, indeed, can't your CD changer be chatting with your home server which has a Net connection? It will pull down all the CDDB information ("ohhh, that's why they went proprietary") for your collection; you tell your system that you want the party to crescendo in music tone and pace over 5 hours, then decay over an hour while you shoo everybody out the door, then close with Elvis Costello to get the stragglers out. Some service like Firefly will take care of all the recommendations for you. Tell it you want "Queerest of the Queer" next song, and it will stick it into the rotation.
Why, some people here have once wondered, is the Palm Pilot such a big deal. Everyone wants Linux on a handheld, don't they? Have you seen 3com's plans for the Palm VII and the way it will communicate with Internet services like Yahoo News, e-trade stock quotes, and all that other stuff? What else are they doing, besides missing the XML boat?
They're turning it into an information appliance.
Why, you might wonder, is Intel talking with Ericsson about wireless data communications in the home?
They want to make information appliances.
Q: What is Lamar Pott's new job at Be?
A: Find out here. Hint: It contains the word Internet and appliance.
It's going to happen, and moreover, you want it to happen. At least I do. -Stephen van Egmond, svanegmond@home.com who forgot his slashdot ID.
Posted by Mike@ABC:
I don't see people running out to buy a lot of these appliances. Sure, there's a niche for WebTV and perhaps an e-mail appliance, especially among the older generations unfamiliar with computers.
But I have to say, I think a networked home, with a server, a couple of workstations and a liberal assortment of thin clients, isn't beyond the realm of possibility. We're seeing it now with centralized, computerized climate controls and all-in-one entertainment centers. Give it a decade, maybe, and we'll start to see total solutions based on a home server or high-end PC.
But again, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Sorry, but there's only one problem with this arguement - who would buy a bunch of "information appliances" if you have 1 that does everything (even if it costs more).
It's an analogy akin to saying I have a Widget that can function as a dishwasher, can opener, toaster, and microwave oven. Why would I want to replace my widget for all of those other appliances? My Widget can also be upgraded (free of charge) to support Oven Baking and Bread Making.
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None of you have read the article, as best I can determine.
The point was much more interesting than the headline suggests.
Here's a nutshell:
AOL/Netscape -vs- Wintel; AOL goes to war with Wintel by building Emachines-style boxes, loading them with a free OS like Linux (Windows now costs a significant portion of the computer price), and giving them away to anyone who signs up with them for Internet access.
In the process, say goodbye to Apple with their proprietary OS. People will either buy a Wintel if they want to blow a lot of money, or take a free AOLbox if they are cheapos.
It's an interesting point, I'd say.
We've all seen that the market for cheapo PCs is actually quite big. That's why Intel is in trouble, and why Apple might be...
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/* Insert tongue in cheek */
That's it. I'm giving up my job. No more coding. No more debugging. No more deadlines. I'm going to be a technology columnist who makes radical predictions about the future of computing!
Think about it -- you make money based on how many people read your work. If you want more people to read your work, just make more radical, controversial predictions. *Ka-chiiing* More money for you!
Best of all, no one notices or remembers when you're wrong. If they do, you can just mumble about, "unforeseen market forces".
If you run out of topics, just whip out a little essay on, "How technology is changing our lives." Content is optional!
/* Remove tongue from cheek */
Save the whales. Feed the hungry. Free the mallocs.