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SDMI as Dead As DivX
Anonymous Cowpie writes "Rival predicts death for
SDMI - Bob Kohn, chairman of EMusic, says
SDMI's new spec won't dislodge MP3. He also says "In a year's time,
the SDMI standard will suffer the same demise as Divx. The
standard war is over today."" Fine by me. Wouldn't have
had SDMI on Linux for years anyway, and my MP3 collection
isn't going anywhere.
But then they will have some kind of a self-destruct device installed for the MP3 part, so that when you upgrade to "SDMI Phase-II", MP3s no longer play.
I have no idea why any developer would want to include SDMI in their player, especially if they are marketing it as an MP3 player. I guess we'll have to read the fine print. Something along the lines of:
Anyway, that's the plan, as far as I can tell. It would be a decent strategy, except for the fact that nobody but the RIAA wants SDMI.
rooooar
You didn't quite read what the guy said, he said MTV controls what we listen too. I think he mostly meant what is considered mainstream/popular.. which sad to say they really do. Then he went on to imply that he hopes MTV becomes obsolete, I assume by the internet.
BTW is that walkindude.. as in The Stand?
It seems many people have a misconception of what SDMI is.. /SDMI will follow the rules and will only play first generation copies or something like that (I kinda forget how these rules work or how they are digitally enforced). Now somehow the RIAA has got to force all players to support the SDMI standard, which they may just do, suppositivly the new RIO'S will use SDMI as will most other players, possibly even winamp. So if we want to fight this initiative we need to start using and supporting players that do not care about SDMI, most of these will oviously be linux/free(not beer nessesarly)/GPL software.
From what I've figure out SDMI is more of a watermarking technology, meaning all new CD's and online music will be watermarked with SDMI (note there is a difference between this and encrypting of scrambling (spelling?) old CD players will be able to play this SDMI music (though if you play it backwards and really slowly you will hear a voice in the backgroud saying "do noot copy.. or satin will have your soul" accually this is fairly accuarate except its a binary message for the computer to read instead of you). Even if Ripped from CD to MP3 this watermark will most likly still be there. The important difference comes in the players. The players that support watermarking
That's the basic gist of SDMI, instead of moving to a very low cost wide open distribution model. Those in power of music want to keep it that way. The RIAA is all about maintaining a monopoly (split 5 ways). They will try to convince people that listening to MP3 is theft, and charging $15 for a CD isn't.
Their last thought is about how to expose the most number of people to an artists work, instead trying to get the highest return per listener. Big business and art shouldn't mix.
I see a veritable battle brewing and I'd like to think that enough people will learn of the evils of controlling information (Secure DMI) do nothing but limit the choices of consumers (see M$, Catholic Church).
Beware, AOL already owns winamp and shoutcast. Someone else (don't remeber who, but a big media guy) owns MP3Spy and GameSpy. If AOL joins the SDMI (and they want to play with the big boys) then WinAmp will soon check your MP3's before they play. Watch the legislation, making free things illegal is a great way to charge for them.
It's really an us vs. them battle. Consumers vs. Business. Who wins in the Free Market.....we shall see.
Stay Alert, Stay Alive, Stay FREE
+&x
UMM I'm pretty sure that they meant endorced as in a proper copy. Like the artist endorces your CD but not that copy you burnt and gave to your friend.
corporations don't support mp3 like they did for DVD. Thus, SDMI has no _real_ entrenched competitor. Also, even DVD had Macrovision, and basic encryption, so studios could rest easy that no one would hax0r (crax0r?) filez off of dvds and post them. mp3 has no such feature. I think SDMI will win, but they will learn from divx's mistake.
(first?)
"Why all of sudden has the United States become so concerned with privacy? Privacy was never a concern before the Web."
We have always been concerned about privacy. It is more along the lines of "Why are there suddenly so many privacy invasions and disregard for everyones basic want for privacy?"
Consumers these days fall into a couple categories: high-end consumers, collectors, joe-consumer, and those with ethical agendas.
Let's reorder these:
Joe Consumer
This guy cares mostly about two things: widespread use and low price. Ease of use would be another plus. Joe-consumer also makes up the largest portion of the market. By widespread use, I mean - how versatile is the thing. Can his VCR play all the latest movies? Can his OS play all the latest games and are all his friends using these? VHS and Windows became market-dominant because of Joe Consumer.
High-end consumers
These people drive their purchases based on quality. Money is often not a significant factor. These people jumped on the laser disc format early. They probably owned the first CD players which were horribly expensive. They also represent a much smaller chunk of the market than Joe Consumer.
Collectors
They want market items true to their original form, which hold their value, or represent a rarity. A collector would want something that preserved quality (i.e. if a tape format provided slightly better quality than a CD, he would still probably go for the CD because it is longer-lived).
People with ethical agendas
Alot of the Slashdot crowd falls in here. They want open source, even if it sacrifices quality sometimes. This ethical agenda could be totally off the wall though. For example, not buying Ben & Jerry's ice cream because you support the NRA and you know that they are vivid anti-gun lobbyists. Although you like their ice cream, you refuse to buy it.
So, with SDMI, I believe this article is totally off base. I truly wish MP3 would hang on as THE standard. But I fear it will not because:
- SDMI will get the titles. Just as VHS did, SDMI will garner the support of the artists because their labels will not allow them to support anything else. (score 1 for Joe Consumer)
- SDMI will probably have quality. Microsoft's new format really does have better quality that MP3. I didn't believe it until I tried it. Both on low and high bitrate streams, too. (score 1 for high-end consumers and collectors).
- SDMI offers copyright protection. (score 1 for collectors).
- SDMI won't be free. (score -1 for ethical agendas)
- SDMI is coming on the scene late. (score -1 for high-end consumers who already have a large amount of time vested in MP3 collections)
Will SDMI win? I believe it will at least get a strong foothold because Joe Consumer drives a large portion of the market. But I'd love to hear discussion and see what people think of my points above.
- Speed
The problem with SDMI is simply one of Mathematics, not of consumer rights or privacy or the big bloated music industry. In an information age, what can and can't be done with information is controlled by math and only math. I can send a private letter to you because encryption is mathematically possible and explored, but you cannot send me a file that I can only read 3 times. Controlling information like that is simply not possible (short of implanting a chip into everybody's brain).
So, with Mathematics against it, formats like this have to rely on proprietary closed systems, control over hardware, and legal methods to keep us from cracking them right open.
That is the problem.
Those percentages (crude as they are :) )don't work for the World, they work pretty much only for the States. I'm sure that the vast majority of, say, India or Africa doesn't listen to music that comes from the major record labels. Thats what, 1.5 Billion people right there? Just a thought.
..................................@ @
i dont display scores, and my threshhold is -1. post accordingly.
Discuss
Oh, pardon me, but you forgot that the largest music-listening audience is teens.
Without cash.
They're the ones who are using MP3, not Joe Six-Pak. They're the ones the RIAA can't convince to buy CDs.
And they like the PRICE of MP3.
Will in Seattle
Will in Seattle
Not that it makes any difference in the final percentage or the point you're making, but you might want to replace the term "Earth" with something like "industrialized countries of the world" and adjust the numbers accordingly. Start with, say, 2 billion instead of six billion.
It just bugs me when people assume that North America/Western Europe/Japan etc. is in any way representative of the way the vast majority of people on this planet live.
Why on earth would anyone want to stop using the flexible MP3 format in favor of an inflexible SDMI? And even if SDMI starts pressing onward, who's to say I can't rip my CDs into MP3 files? The ripper will still work. The players will still work.
One of the funniest things about the whole article is this quote from "an Internet manager at music label BMG" who said: "My gut feeling is that 90 percent of consumers would rather pay a sum of money for music that is endorsed by the artists." If, in fact, 90 percent of consumers feel this way then there is no practical need for copy protection.
Hmmm...
make digital distribution disapppear?
How?
As long as I can hear music, I may also be able to digitise it, and hence save it in MP3 Format on my harddisk. There's no technical possibility to avoid that someone will distribute this new song in MP3 format.
No, guys, there's no way back.
All other formats will die, as no one will want to use them (besides the distributors, but we are the ones, who actually listen to the music). Long live MP3.
Markus
Here's some VERY inaccurate numbers:
- -------
What percentage of people on Earth who have ears (or at least one ear) listen to the music EVER produced by the music industry?
Probably about 85% (the rest are either Amish, or don't have access to a radio deep in the areas of prehistory)
What percentage of those use computers?
Probably about 40%... remember, not EVERYONE is computer literate! How many of your great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, or babies under 2 even use computers? (I know some do, but most don't.) Also include the guy next door who thinks a computer is the work of the devil, and should be burned at the stake.
What percentage of computer users actually KNOW how to use a computer, enough to hear something?
Probably about 40%... and that's a bit high. If the private Liberal Arts college I work at is any indicator, we have about 50 students and about 10-15 faculty and staff who are even THAT literate. That's about 20% of the total college population. I say 50% to include all you home users.
Okay, and out of that number who can use a computer to hear stuff, how many are willing to listen to MP3's over buying the actual thing?
Probably 25% of those. I know that if I hear a song that's good enough, sometimes I go out and get the actual CD.
Okay, let's take the current world population, (6 billion) and put things together:
5.1 Billion listen to music
2.04 Billion use computers (now that's a high number!!!)
816 Million listen to their computers.
204 Million listen to MP3's, and never buy the actual thing.
Okay, so the music industry is losing income from, at most, 214 Million of their customers.
That's how much of the total world population?
A whopping 3.4% .
MP3 won't die, and neither will SDMI, of either sides complaints. They WILL die of people who don't use them.
Just see how many people are getting DVD's versus VHS, and how many people got DIVX versus DVD. The figures probably come out even less than mine did. DIVX's demise was that people didn't use it, so it became extinct!
At least a chunk of people ARE going to use DVD, so it will stay around, and eventually join tapes, CD's, VHS, ZIP (not for long), and floppy (who will kill them!) as media storage. I almost want to predict that DVD will become even more powerful, when both the audio, video, and computer industry use it... audio to get a MUCH higher sampling rate (as if current ones aren't good enough, soon our dogs and cats will enjoy our music!), video to get a much higher pixel rate, and more availability, and computer to get more storage.
MP3's dying? Not likely. SDMI dying? Well, let's watch the demand. DVD dying? Not a chance, it has a great future.
ERPbridge - looking at what might have happened if something occurred differently, in an alternate dimension.
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Wired News: "Does SDMI similarly allow for "fair use" of music by me, the consumer? "
Leonardo Chiariglione: "I don't think it is right [to apply the same standard] to an environment where you copy once, copy twice, copy a million times, and it is exactly the same as the original. So SDMI gives you the solutions: Content has an associated set of user rules. You are the author, I am the consumer, and we have agreed to these rules. "
This is the Executive Director of SDMI, personally I'm not very interested in using something that comes from a guy who cares so little about fair use and privacy.
The RIAA does NOT care about the 1% of the population who read Slashdot, use Linux, have the technological background to thwart copy protection, the time to surf the net for mp3's, use crappy handheld one hour portable players, etc.
They are aiming the initiative at the GENERAL population who would just like to go to CD-NOW and purchase a $1 single and download it to their computer.
Also, even though MP3's are popular now, people would much rather use a format that is secure, cost effective, and easy to use. I'm sorry, but the MP3 format does not fit the bill. MP3 is fine for archiving, but not as a distribution format. People still buy software even with WAREZ pervasive on the Internet because they are honest and don't want to break the law. I guarantee people will pay a lousy dollar or two for a song if it means they can easily download it and play it hassle free.
Lastly, this hardware deactivation feature does not mean that it will deactivate current mp3 players on your computer, only those players that support the new format.
When the general computer using population sees an add for $1 singles, they will go to their favorite online music store, download an SDMI enabled player, and the RIAA will have another user. The fact that it will initially support MP3's will simply be another feature for these users, but eventually the users will be weaned off of mp3's because SDMI songs will be so easy to buy, play and find.
MP3's are popular now because there is no alternative. People weigh buying a $15 CD with downloading a pirated song and right now, Pirating songs wins a lot of the time. People don't like breaking the law if they don't have to. Once the record labels allow people to make their own customized CD's, it will immediately launch whatever format they support to the forefront. MP3's will be MAINLY relegated to pirating users and for people's own personal use. The rest of us, will start purchasing SMDI collections because our time is worth more than a dollar or two.
As respects the quote at the end, about how we should be sounding the death-knell for MP3 instead, i give a big "BZZZZZT! Wrong!"
.99 cents to get a single legitimate copy instantly. The anaolgy with DIVX is quite apt: industry decides what it wants and what is best for them, customers decide that there is no benefit for them, they refuse to buy in, the business looses, and out comes a new industry...
It is true that consumers by and large may begin to prefer the legitimate distribution channels, but that doesn't mean a choice between whatever tripe 'standard' the music industry comes up with and the 'evil pirate' mp3. Musicians and customers will simply route around the distribution companies that fight mp3's, or whatever format comes along. Bands will begin to fight to release their own property ina way that benefits them, and consumers will continue to choose the method that most closely matches their desires.
The prez of Goodnoise made a valuable point along these lines: people might not want to surf an hour to get a song for free illegally, but would be very happy with just paying the
All economic models depend upon consumers doing what is in their best intrest, otherwise there is no way to predict behaviour accurately. Am I going to simply accept a system that limits and restricts freedoms I already have? No! Why would I? Instead, a new model must be found to deal with my new expectations as a consumer. Same goes for musicians and bands. They know the score, and are even less inclined to stick around with a sour deal since they're losing out on so much money already.
Check my Go-related blog for beginners: DGD
... many sound cards available today offer some pretty useful tools in "acquiring" audio from already digital sources.
My SB Live has the ability to record whatever is being played (from the computer) without any DA conversions. So, as long as you can play an SDMI file, you can record an exact dupe as MP3.
Not to mention that MP4 is going to blow SDMI right out of the water, quality-wise. Unlike consumer electronics, open standards in the computer industry move a lot faster than the industry developed ones.
Plus, I don't think they realize the psychological reasons why MP3 will win. Most people (especially the computer-illiterates I know) tend not to see files/downloads as any sort of product. To them, it's not a tangible item-- they can't hold it, they can't throw it at the cat, they can't put it in their bags to show off to some friends. Therefore, to them, it has no real value. They're certainly not going to pay for something that they believe has no value.
I know that's not the attitude for many of the computer-savvy individual. However, there are many people out there who would never even consider taking so much as a candy from the supermarket bulk bins, but would gladly download the latest Will Smith single.
Which also brings me to my last (finally) point-- much of the mp3's currently available on the internet are the more popular songs-- usually singles. Since those songs are heard on the radio (sometimes a few too many times, ala Spice Girls) it doesn't really seem like much of a crime to get an mp3 of a song that has already been broadcast to the world. It's public domain then, right? Who would pay for something that's already free?
SDMI is dead before it's started. The music industry shouldn't try to mess with a distribution system that is already in full force, and is definately doing much more good than harm. How difficult is it for an emerging artist to encode an MP3? Dead easy.
How much will it cost to encode in SDMI? How many legal hassles will you have to go through? For many, it just ain't worth it.
And I won't say that MP3 and MP4 will win, because there is no challenge-- they won a long time ago.
- Greg.