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Windows Domination May End Next Year
Non-Newtonian Fluid writes "The Register has an interesting article which explains exactly how Linux could rise up and defeat M$ by taking advantage of the Easy PC specification and Micro$oft's own inability to keep pace with the demands of new hardware. " The article also mentions BeOS and other possible Windows competitors. A good "makes you think" piece.
First, while I'm sure consumers won't care if their "net-only" box runs Windows, I disagree that the Net-only box is going to be popular enough to dethrone Microsoft. There just aren't THAT MANY WebTV boxes out there right now for me to believe that this is the wave of the future. People will still want office apps (at the very least a word processor) that work as well and as easiliy as MS Office. As a long time user of Star Office, Applixware, KLyx and more recently Abi-Word, it's my opinion that we're not there yet. We're getting there...but we just aren't there.
Stop right there oh ye of the itchy flamethrower trigger finger
I'm not not not saying that Linux won't over throw MS in the near future (although "near" is up for debate). I'm merely saying that Internet-only boxes based on Intel's sketch "Easy PC" roadmap is not the way we're going to over through the giant.
To me, it all comes down the same stuff it's always come down to. Stability, Applications, GUI, Ease of Use. And we're already tackling those quite nicely I think.
Werd.
Romen
Sam TH
AbiWord Developer
The optimism isn't wrong, that is, but the angle is way off. Which OS will take better advantage of this new EasyPC spec:
a) The OS whose company was deeply involved in writing the spec and which is coming out with a specific version just to support it (Millenium)
or
b) The OS that gets little, belated info about new hardware initiatives, can't run WinModems (which are surely a central part of EasyPC), and only has experimental PnP and USB support now?
The real future for Linux comes when more hardware vendors are willing to write drivers for the LinModems of the future. Oracle's $150 Linux NC will be a nice start. And if Corel gets good penetration, it will certainly help.
--JZ
Suppose Windows dominion does end next year. Without the platform holding people back, I think we can expect a few other changes.
...
First off, Linux-based systems will not be the only ones to benefit. The Macintosh will be right there, of course --- Apple's holding a comeback, and everyone's invited. The iMac has already done a bit to cut into Windows's market share, and we can expect the iBook to do likewise. Other OSes can also take their share, of course --- if Amiga ever gets its rear in gear, they can do nicely; so can Be, for that matter. Still, as there's little evidence Amiga or Be can get their rears in gear, I think we'll see Linux-based systems and the MacOS as the primary successors to Windows on the desktop.
Second off, x86 dominion will go away slowly. Macintoshes, of course, are non-x86 systems. So are Amigas. However, a good portion of the non-x86 market will be running Linux-based systems, not MacOS or the Amiga OE. Already there are the NetWinder and Qube which use non-x86 processors; there's also Linux for the PowerPC chip, though so far PPCs outside of Macintoshes are hard to come by. Non-x86 Linux systems will start as servers (like the Qube and NetWinder) and expand in the direction of the consumer desktop as demand materializes. The x86 isn't that great to begin with; it's been held on to largely because of binary compatibility, which isn't an issue in the world of free software.
Finally, the applications field will change. It's possible that Microsoft could lose Windows and yet keep the Office dominion by porting to Linux and other systems as they emerge. However, I suspect that in their hubris they will fail to do so in time. Thus, applications diversity will increase. This may mean a world of using translator applications all the time --- or it may mean a world of public standards for word processing documents, just as we now have public standards for images (JPEG, PNG) and sound (MP3). I for one would greatly prefer the latter
It's an exciting time to be in the field. Let's not blow it.
No. Planned Easy PC flavors are: Tapioca, Cod Liver Oil, Liver and Onions, Tripe and the ever-popular Musli.
-- This and all my posts are in the public domain. I am a lawyer. I am not your lawyer, and this is not legal advice.