Slashdot Mirror
Windows Domination May End Next Year
Non-Newtonian Fluid writes "The Register has an interesting article which explains exactly how Linux could rise up and defeat M$ by taking advantage of the Easy PC specification and Micro$oft's own inability to keep pace with the demands of new hardware. " The article also mentions BeOS and other possible Windows competitors. A good "makes you think" piece.
First, while I'm sure consumers won't care if their "net-only" box runs Windows, I disagree that the Net-only box is going to be popular enough to dethrone Microsoft. There just aren't THAT MANY WebTV boxes out there right now for me to believe that this is the wave of the future. People will still want office apps (at the very least a word processor) that work as well and as easiliy as MS Office. As a long time user of Star Office, Applixware, KLyx and more recently Abi-Word, it's my opinion that we're not there yet. We're getting there...but we just aren't there.
Stop right there oh ye of the itchy flamethrower trigger finger
I'm not not not saying that Linux won't over throw MS in the near future (although "near" is up for debate). I'm merely saying that Internet-only boxes based on Intel's sketch "Easy PC" roadmap is not the way we're going to over through the giant.
To me, it all comes down the same stuff it's always come down to. Stability, Applications, GUI, Ease of Use. And we're already tackling those quite nicely I think.
Werd.
Romen
Sam TH
AbiWord Developer
Scanner. I bought a HP scanjet for my family, it has USB out of the box and can be made to do SCSI. I wanted the USB because between me, my kids and my wife, we can move the unit around as needed.
When Linux has good support for USB, I'll be set. In the mean time, I either boot Winblows when I need to scan, or scan from my kid's machine and then put it onto my server with Samba.
I can see the same thing happening with a digital camera or some other USB interface device (mice, keyboard, bah).
[not crashing] Actually this is important for a casual user. They want a box that, to borrow a quote, "just works". They don't want to have to deal with the fallout from crashes all the time. Even if they don't depend on it, they simply don't want to have to wonder if it's crashed after having been left alone and untouched for a week.
First, a casual user's understanding of "just works" mostly means "it does what I mean" and doesn't have much to do with crashes. Again, it's a question of the appropriate GUI and considerable underlying program intelligence which has to guess correctly what did the user mean. And anyway, crashes can be made relatively painless (fast reboot + session management) as I pointed out.
Besides casual users do not leave their computers running for a week and they don't care if it crashed while sitting untouched -- it's not like they are going to access their machine remotely...
Again, they will care because of one thing: they don't care to tinker, but the guy who set it up for them does.
You miss the point completely. The whole idea of those Easy-PCs is that nobody has to set them up. You bring it home, plug it into the outlet and the phone jack, and it works. That's it. Nothing to cofigure, nothing to select, nothing to tweak. I am not sure the actual machine will pull it off, but that is clearly the goal.
Kaa
Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.
I think the PC as we know it is going to become the serial port and ISA of the modern computer, some people will still use it and swear by it religiously, but they will eventually be forced to move on. We're seeing all incarnations of set top boxes for net access and some basic word processing, running all sorts of kernels, most noteably linux. Connections are getting faster for Joe User's home so the idea of network computers running remote applications is no longer something reserved for Bill Joy's wet dreams. Here's what I see happening in the next few years. 1. Sun buys Star Office-a cross platform, MS Office compatible, relatively small office suite-and rewrites the Java version to be smaller and much more efficient processor wise. Then they release NC's with microSPARC or JavaChip processors in them (both run Java natively and therefore much faster than say an x86 or PPC chip). With cable and xDSL available in many parts of the country, people find these NC's easy to use and good for what they need.
2. AOL releases their set top box, which with AOL's popularity deals a heavy blow against Micro$oft's WebTV. AOL offers cheap @home service to it's box owners which increases the set top box and AOL's user base. The AOl box runs an uber-hacked linux kernel.
3. Platforms like Nintendo's Dolphin and the PSX2 offer WebTV-like net access and multi player gaming over the internet.
4. Intel's 810 chipset becomes widely used in the sub-500$ PC market making PC's less and less upgradeable but drastically reducing their price while adding a little more *umph* to their multimedia capability.
5. SGI changes their logo yet again. Their campus is stormed by angry nerds who attack them with all forms of pointy metal objects. SGI changes their logo back to the cool infinity cube, the nerds rejoice.
6. Amiga never decides what to base their new kernel on and merely changes the version number to 4.0 and hope no one notices. 7. With the popularity of the iMac pretty undistputed, many other PC makers get the idea that your average user probably will never open up their computer to add anything so cute cuddly user friendly designs flood the market. Only techies and true believers build and use legacy systems and are never bothered with annoying questions like "How do I turn it on?" ever again.
8. Silicon Valley sinks into the ocean.
I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
HEY!
I like tapioca...
Ill be damed if im gonna let intel and microsoft ruin my tapioca!
"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson
Wow... that took SOOOO much effort, I'm sure... you must have spent all of ten seconds doing that...
let's see...
banner -w 80 "Linux is obsolete."
I bow before your amazing h4x0r sk1llz.
NOT
Not 10% certainly. This is the most recent data we have, and it places his wealth at 191m. So selling 78m is a pretty substantial vote.
Considering that he's left Microsoft, I assume he has good reason to (i) diversify his portfolio, and (ii) move away from a company he may have lost confidence in.
http://www.forbes.com/asap/tech100/98/49.htm
D
----
Let's say for the sake of argument that he's right though, and Easy PC's with Linux take off and make a serious dent in Windows. Even then, we'll have a problem (I predict).
Ever notice how a new PC user starts by saying "All I need is word processing (or email, or whatever)..." but down the line a year or so, they end up wanting more functionality just because they now realize there's so much more it can do?
The same thing will happen here. Aunt Bertha will get her computer to do email and web surfing and then will see someone running the latest version of Micros~1 Outlook with God knows what new whiz bang feature she now wants. She'll want to run it and won't be able to, unless we want to write an app to do what she wants. And most of the kind of apps we value don't fit into the mold of what Aunt Bertha wants, so there's a high probability for conflict.
If this comes to pass, I bet it'll be followed by a "consumer backlash" against Linux or whatever OS ends up running on these boxes.
Actually, AbiSource claims that AbiWord does not run on the Macintosh.
This post should be moderated up.
The guy is right on - Microsoft is driving the hardware specs, and there's no way that Intel is going to release a platform that doesn't have MS backing. (Especially after the USB f-up, where they shipped hardware for a couple years without drivers.) The idea that Linux will ever have more hardware support than Windows (by next year!) on a commodity platform is silly.
These cut-down PC plans (PC99, EasyPC) might as well be called "WinPC". Dropping things like VGA text mode, BIOS support for non-PnP OSes, 'legacy' ports like serial and parallel, and forcing things like ACPI is bad news not only for Linux but also anyone who wants to run commercial OSes such as WinNT 4.0 or OS/2.
(In fact, the non-PnP Windows NT 4 is the *only* reason Microsoft isn't more aggressively pushing WinPCs rignt now. Once Windows 2000 is out, expect to see some very Linux unfriendly hardware. the Not that the Linux folks won't catch up, it just might take a while. And I fully expect the typical corporate purchasing department will try to save $100 and skip the 'OS-Independant' checkbox.)
--
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
I'd like to throw something in here as the Linux newbie. I got Caldera OpenLinux 2.2, and yes, it's really graphical and friendly (though you can still get a regular text login screen by pressing ctrl-alt-F2), and it makes just about everything I do easier -- EXCEPT installing software.
/etc, because I can't do it without logging out and re-logging in as root because Caldera took out all the non-graphical text editors, except vim, which requires a half-hour tutorial to learn to use it.
.rpm files instead. But the only .rpm files that have EVER worked, instead of dying instantly, are the ones on the Caldera CD itself. And to install those I have to quit everything I'm doing and log in as root.
(Warning: rant ahead)
I tried to install a frontend to MPG123 because I'm sick of listening to my mp3's in alphabetical order. It told me there were two libraries I had to install first (of course, it didn't say that in configure; I had to look in the README). So I try to find these other libraries using the ftp addresses provided. One of the sites is down so I have to hunt around for it elsewhere. One of the libraries requires two MORE libraries. I get those. I install everything, mixing up the order a couple of times, sometimes being baffled before realizing I forgot to 'su root' before typing 'make install', and the last library ends up not being able to find the other one anyway. In other programs, even though I have all the libraries and it can find them, they still don't compile, telling me to edit the Makefile, most of which I don't understand, and God forbid that I should have to edit some file in
I thought I could get around this by downloading
Even if the inexperienced user moves to Linux and gets the package system working, I can bet you'll have most people using their root account to do everything, because it's too much of a pain to switch to it to install stuff. I know that this is not a good idea.
I know that all of this is more powerful than running setup.exe in Windows. But if the average user finds some nifty new software, having a Windows version with setup.exe and an 'everything else' version requiring a process resembling the above, they're going to stick with Windows.
--
Win dain a lotica, en vai tu ri silota
A few weeks ago I bought a PS/2 mouse, I had always used a serial mouse up to this point. I have Win95 on a partition for my wife, and sometimes to play a few games. When Win95 booted, it "discovered my new hardware", and automatically removed my video driver for me!
;-) All I know is that both drivers are working now!
I broke out in a cold sweat, installing those video drivers had been a major struggle before.
I don't remember what happened after that, the human brain tends to block out traumatic memories.
Of all the comments I've ever posted, this is definately one of them
Yeah, in the good 'ole days (DOS/Win31, OS/2 2.x-3.x, etc.), there was always a method or process to fixing all computer problems. Everything made sense and had a clear-cut solution.
:)
With the release of Windows'95, MS has turned fixing those problems into a form of voodoo magic! Today, fixing the average Win'9X problem involves yanking or masaging the system drivers, 20 reboots, and 10 dances in full witch doctor apparel! And don't forget the ceremonial chants! This is the only way to fix Win9X problems, and sometimes yields an 80% success rate. Hehe
The optimism isn't wrong, that is, but the angle is way off. Which OS will take better advantage of this new EasyPC spec:
a) The OS whose company was deeply involved in writing the spec and which is coming out with a specific version just to support it (Millenium)
or
b) The OS that gets little, belated info about new hardware initiatives, can't run WinModems (which are surely a central part of EasyPC), and only has experimental PnP and USB support now?
The real future for Linux comes when more hardware vendors are willing to write drivers for the LinModems of the future. Oracle's $150 Linux NC will be a nice start. And if Corel gets good penetration, it will certainly help.
--JZ
Yeah, I deleted about three sentances and replaced it with that parentetical note, so I deserve the DUH.
What I meant is that a "WebTV" is only advertised to surf the web and get mail. Anyone can build one of these right now. My understanding is that an EasyPC falls in between a webbox and a real computer. You can surf the web, and use a (cut down?) version of Excel, and play non-accellerated Quake.
The problem comes when consumers figure out that only thing these boxes are real good at is web surfing, and it's difficult to run the hardware and software they need. (Kinda like the old Atari 8-bit machines - great at games, bad at word processing).
--
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
"... it doesn't have to be Windows, and as Windows is expensive and overly-complicated, quite a lot of these boxes won't be Windows. They'll be Linux, BSD or BeOS, and the customers won't really care. "
I think that customers will care, but not for good reasons. Unfortunately, Windows has dominated the market for long enough that "PC" and "Windows" are linked together in most consumers' minds.
In the world the I (and probably a good number of Slashdot readers) live, surrounded by geeks, it's easy to forget that most people, most current computer owners even, haven't even heard of Linux. At best, they saw an article in a trade mag, but they aren't giving it a lot of thought. Plus, those magazine articles are often loaded with FUD, and they make the customer less likely to want a computer sans Windows.
This is why everyone needs to read the Advocacy HOWTO. Yes, most people will prefer Windows to an operating system they haven't heard of (even if it means waiting a few months...and I'm sure Microsoft won't let anyone think that it'll be more than a few months' delay), but we can work to make sure people have heard of Linux (as well as BeOS, BSD, etc.), and that they know that they have a choice right now. When these EasyPCs come out, and they only customers can have Windows is to wait, the choice will be clear.
Suppose Windows dominion does end next year. Without the platform holding people back, I think we can expect a few other changes.
...
First off, Linux-based systems will not be the only ones to benefit. The Macintosh will be right there, of course --- Apple's holding a comeback, and everyone's invited. The iMac has already done a bit to cut into Windows's market share, and we can expect the iBook to do likewise. Other OSes can also take their share, of course --- if Amiga ever gets its rear in gear, they can do nicely; so can Be, for that matter. Still, as there's little evidence Amiga or Be can get their rears in gear, I think we'll see Linux-based systems and the MacOS as the primary successors to Windows on the desktop.
Second off, x86 dominion will go away slowly. Macintoshes, of course, are non-x86 systems. So are Amigas. However, a good portion of the non-x86 market will be running Linux-based systems, not MacOS or the Amiga OE. Already there are the NetWinder and Qube which use non-x86 processors; there's also Linux for the PowerPC chip, though so far PPCs outside of Macintoshes are hard to come by. Non-x86 Linux systems will start as servers (like the Qube and NetWinder) and expand in the direction of the consumer desktop as demand materializes. The x86 isn't that great to begin with; it's been held on to largely because of binary compatibility, which isn't an issue in the world of free software.
Finally, the applications field will change. It's possible that Microsoft could lose Windows and yet keep the Office dominion by porting to Linux and other systems as they emerge. However, I suspect that in their hubris they will fail to do so in time. Thus, applications diversity will increase. This may mean a world of using translator applications all the time --- or it may mean a world of public standards for word processing documents, just as we now have public standards for images (JPEG, PNG) and sound (MP3). I for one would greatly prefer the latter
It's an exciting time to be in the field. Let's not blow it.
Intel is putting together a platform that is suboptimal for Windows. Microsoft is not planning to optimize Windows for that platform, but they will offer something that will limp along on it. The conclusion: this is an opportunity for alternate OSs to beat Windows.
Will somebody explain how this "Windows running suboptimally on an Intel platform" differs one iota from the situation today? Windows running suboptimally appears to have little effect on their market share.
--The basis of all love is respect
Nope the default is still DOC and XLS. You can save as XML, but only if you select "Save as Web Page"
--
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
Here's where the 'consumer electric' model falls down as far as "Easy PCs" go. If you are on a cable system that your TV/VCR doesn't support, you have go out and buy/rent a seperate cable box and daisy chain it through channel 3 or something. We're already beyond the comprehention of Joe Sixpack here. Thank god for cable installers.
The computer approach is to just add another software/hardware doohicky to make your computer do what it needs to. A computer (not talking about simple webtv things here) which can't do that is going to frustrate people pretty quickly, and people will get a clue and either buy a real computer or give up.
We've already been through this in the early 80s with $200 plug-n-play boxes like the C-64 and Atari 800. Not that they weren't great machines, but when many people figured out that they needed a $300 disk drive, $200 modem, and $200 printer to do anything other than video games with them, interest dropped off.
--
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
No. Planned Easy PC flavors are: Tapioca, Cod Liver Oil, Liver and Onions, Tripe and the ever-popular Musli.
-- This and all my posts are in the public domain. I am a lawyer. I am not your lawyer, and this is not legal advice.
er, I guess I could, couldn't I? Didn't really look into anything along those lines since this was intended to be primarily a windows-centric solution for my son to use for his school projects. In fact, this has sat on his desk for the most part where he's scanned pictures and drag-dropped them into his word reports.
I've used this exactly twice in the month that we've had this. The first time was when I lugged it upstairs to install the software on my windows partition and do a test scan with a couple wedding album shots. The second time I wanted to scan in a couple "refrigerator art" drawings my daughter had done. I got on my son's PC while he wasn't using it and just dropped the image file onto the Samba share I've set up on our server.
I'll have to look into this. I'm not sure this would be the best solution for a couple reasons which really don't have anything to do with the suitability of SANE or anything.
1) My son has lots more desk space than I do and he is using it more right now anyway.
2) I'm a SCSI 'virgin' so I'm not sure I have the time right now to take the plunge, esp since my son is using it daily right now.
3) The scanner didn't come with any SCSI hardware, I'd have to buy something.
4) So far, the USB seems plenty fast for scanning purposes. I'm sure the SCSI is faster, but it ain't broke right now with USB.
5) I'm wondering how well this would integrate with the windows scanning software that came with the unit (its nice, it does a preview, allows you to select a region for scanning, select the output format, scan straight to the printer - copier mode - or to a file.)
So, yeah I could probably get by without USB, but it is a pretty damn convenient setup for now.
"legacy hardware is going to be ripped out. ...ISA, parallel, serial and floppy and substitute[d with] USB and Firewire..."
Now I don't know about you, but I can think of a hardware platform that has already done this. And it can run linux too. This platform got a lot of flak for going to USB only. (the pro models have firewire) And in particular, they got a lot of grief over the elimination of the floppy. And whats this? Is the rest of the PC industry following suit?
What is this mysterious platform?
Amusingly, it's still better than on Intel. I wasn't able to crash my WinCE box...
--The basis of all love is respect
Really. Just because Windows isn't ready for the PC-as-the-Internet-appliance thingy doesn't mean that Linux is ready to jump into the fray.
The simpler-than-the-toaser-PC must, absolutely must have a user interface that's comfortable for people who are not able to find their ass with both hands and have problems dealing with their coffeemaker. These people do not really care about the stability of the OS: if there is a large clearly labeled button that will reboot the machine in 5-10 seconds with session management (reconnect to the 'net, open same documents, etc.), then these users will not have any problem with crashes.
Linux has two strengths:
(1) It crashes very rarely: important for people who depend on their computers (NOT casual users)
(2) It's a tinkerer's dream -- if you don't like something, go and change it! Again, the casual users couldn't care less.
The Easy-PC battle is going to be over user interface and nothing but user interface. This is not a strong point of Linux (though not a glaring weakness, either) and I don't see Linux developers going out of their way to develop a GUI for idiots -- and that's what's going to be needed. I am not even touching upon the scarcity of good user interface designers...
Easy-PC is pure point-and-drool -- not a good market for Linux.
Kaa
Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.
greetings mond.
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Linux programmers have been able to create a mighty server OS, but these programmers are not going to be able to create an innovative GUI and Desktop that truly makes computers easier to use.
Absolutely. The coders who did the Linux kernel for the most part aren't cut from the same cloth as the types of programmers who do well with issues of ergonomics or user-interface.
However, those aren't the only types of coders that hang around in the Free Software community.
It's only now that the basic infrastructure has solidified, that the more UI-oriented developers can really start getting to work. I can certainly see this happening with the Berlin project.
Rogue Linux developers working independently can't create the next generation UI.
Rogue developers working independently can't produce a usable OS kernel, either. Fortunately, that's not the way Open Source projects work.
---
DNA just wants to be free...