"The number of Linux users has been roughly flat for the last three years."
I don't know who w3schools are, but I'm very skeptical of those figures being representative of the majority of users. 3.4% in 2005? Seems high, even now.
I'm hugely impressed with the ability of modern distros to just work with stuff. Plug in a USB anything, and it's detected and operational. Even modern cameras. Install printer drivers, and you can print documents, spreadsheets, whatever. Web, email, p2p, anything. And unless you are a complete gaming addict, requiring every game at the highest frame rates and with zero work installing, you can have fun in linux gaming.
Linux keeps chip, chip, chipping away at the functions proprietary OSes have long monopolized. There are only so many uses of a computer, only so many killer apps, especially with respect to what the average person desires. It's certainly to the point where power users are switching, and they bring their friends while providing free tech support.
And computers are moving to be extremely low power, cheap, small footprint, zero maintenance (through solid state cap, no moving part designs) devices. Think Via Eden. No one wants a noisy, expensive to run, space consuming box that collects dust and may break down at any time. At this point, the M$ business model breaks down. On a computer worth $300, margins on everything get squeezed, especially things that can be produced for free but aren't (the OS). FOSS software is the logical thing to put on those boxes. Free, functional, secure. And without bloat.
Again, I don't know where that table came from, but I don't trust it. Only 7 or 8 years ago, the engineers and computer scientists I admired for their ability and would want to hire would often be running linux on their home desktop. I tried and failed - I was addicted to the M$ applications and M$ way of doing things. Most of the time, they'd give a little bit of help but then it would be RTFM.
These days I find people I would never expect to be running linux to be running it. These people are not professional computer programmers or systems administrators, but regular enthusiasts who don't have an IT day job, haven't gone to college, and who are the sorts of people who provide free tech support to their friends and family. Now it's just moderately smart people who have never even been to college, blue collar workers, children!
Even the fun atmosphere is coming back that reminds me of the days of the amiga and c64. People understanding the inner workings of their operating system, and being able to delve down because it's actually open. Making a friend happy because you have brought life to an old system, or showed them how to be free of malware, showed them that there is a viable alternative to downloading and searching for serial numbers, cracks or "free" software that is either illegal or has severe malware risks.
It makes sense for HP to do this. Linux people in Australia are clamoring for a mainstream manufacturer to supply Linux, so essentially HP has a monopoly (among mainstream manufacturers) on Linux computers. People will pay a premium to get a new computer that "just works" with Linux.
If they released in the US, they'd be fighting an already entrenched Dell for market share. In addition, they can work out the kinks in a small, pilot market before rolling it out in the US, saving themselves mistakes that might cost 10 times as much. Makes sense to me.
"This is not such a big deal. Let the Chinese try to copy this. Then they'll only have to build the aircraft carriers, fighter jets, support ships to protect it."
Considering that they build everything else in the world, I'd give them 3 years.
But carrier battle groups and nation states are so 20th century. All you have to do to invade someone these days is walk over a border, set up a restaurant that serves tasty cuisine, make sure that you only buy raw materials and land, and have lots of children.
"Linux Ubuntu is not quite ready for the average user, but almost there. I've had to do a few more steps to get things to work then your normal click and go crowd, but not much more."
I think you are correct there. There's a gap in the middle between power user and web+email types who have needs a bit more complex but can't do more than "click and go". With the rate of improvement of Ubuntu I suspect that gap will disappear shortly.
It's getting close though. I'm reminded of the DOS days where a moderately intelligent kid could get most anything he wanted to run, it just took a bit of work. Unlike say, 5 or 6 years ago where your only help was an impenetrable man page that might be of use if you had a CS degree.
I suggest you go to distrowatch, check the rankings, and work down the list trying distributions (also try various BSDs). You can also click on them to read reviews. Anyway, the point is not to be fixated on the one distribution. There is very likely one distribution that supports your hardware out there. You just need to find it. And chances are you can download some for free from your ISP's ftp server.
"Yeah, there's still a few kinks. But whereas Linux was for tinkerers and hobbyists in the late 90s, and around when RH8 came out it became simple for the experienced computer user, now I'd be willing to throw linux in for any intermediate computer user. That is to say, not ready for Grandma yet but a hell of a lot closer than it ever has been."
I certainly agree with your sentiment that Linux has become WAY simpler over the last few years. I'm not sure whether I'd go so far as to say Linux became simple for the experienced computer user in late 2002. It all depends on what you do. The hard part is not really using it, that's easy. Even Grandma can use it, once she's taught which buttons to click.
The hard part is getting your hardware configured, chasing drivers, and figuring out how to do everything you used to do in Windows, but in Linux. The more varied the stuff you do, the harder it is. That's something Grandma will never do, but it's something that a certain class of power user has always done.
Linux is at the point where a good portion of these users will be able to make it through an install and never look back. It's only going to get easier now.
Those with a taste for good metal would have detected Gamma Ray in Japan after their album "Sigh No More" in 1992. Though I have no idea how they managed to get into a nuclear base.
"Not only are they not able to export, they end up importing cheaper, subsidized food."
Of course, the inevitability of this process implies a lack of import restrictions, and perhaps the sovereignty of their government in being able to impose such.
Not all drugs are as safe or benign as High Times, or your local self-justifying alcoholic, pothead, tripper, juicer or dealer would make out either. The worst of it is that an individual doesn't know how addictive they will find it until he tries it, by which time it is then impossible to un-addict himself.
"At least that is my hope in the enterprise, that the combination of commodity hardware with a commodity, high powered and stable OS can be coupled with increasingly powerful database engines such as mySQL"
Or could you use an already powerful and free database engine like Postgresql.
"You can't bribe someone to be a nerd.
Either you are interested in learning about the world or they aren't."
Maybe just interest alone is a sufficient condition to create a nerd. It won't create an engineer or a physicist. At some point along the line, you have to sit down and do problems which are either right or wrong according to the laws of nature, and often demonstrably so in a lab by anyone.
Most people don't have that sort of ability.
"Linux IS a great desktop OS. It's just not a very good enterprise desktop OS. And as long as MS has a stranglehold on the enterprise desktop, they will have a stranglehold on a home desktop as well, because the money they make comes largely from businesses, who fund their cash cows like Office, so they can supply OEMs like Dell with Windows licenses for peanuts. It's like a magazine subscription - all about circulation. And Microsoft can offer what Linux still can't. So instead of "hating" on Microsoft, let's work to make Linux better and develop the "open" software it needs to compete with MS on a fundamental business level. Moving it into your house is easy if "this is what I use at work" comes into play."
Linux + rdesktop is an excellent enterprise desktop OS. That's a foothold.
I'm not sure how well I can code up an improved or alternative openoffice.org. What I can do is enlarge the linux "circulation" one user at a time, with a focus on those users who have needs that can actually be satisfied by linux and also those users switched on enough to be able to install for other people. If you install it, the developers will come.
"For a heavy Microsoft supporter, Macs are the unthinkable option - Linux is like the escape pod, cramped but familiar and you won't get as much merciless teasing from your compatriots."
Absolutely! Going Mac has never been an option for a lot of people who use or have used MS - otherwise we would have already. A lot of the reason we originally used MS came down to cost and freedom to use any old cheap hardware, at the expense of a bit of time and nous. It's a basic economic decision for many - obsolete computer with spyware-ridden OS can be transformed to new computer with 700meg (or less) download and a bit of fiddling.
"I am not saying Linux is bad, it's just not ready for primetime. Any time a user needs to compile or mess with a text file you've moved out of the mainstream and the average Joe isn't going to want to do anything like that. Other people in this topic have said as much as well."
Primetime for _whom_? From what I have experienced so far, there is a Linux distro that is suitable for 1) Programmers 2) Web + Email basic users who have someone else to do the install for them 3) Many power users
What's left is basically the hardcore gaming addict who simply must have the ability to play one particular game, and other classes of power user depending on application. Web + Email basic users can buy an Ubuntu dell.
"Yes, someone will list a bunch of games that run in Linux, and you know what? Most will suck. It doesn't run the games I WANT TO RUN. rFactor, GTR2, Battlefield 2 etc..."
Yes, that is a good point. Before you switch to linux, you have to do a bit of research to see whether other users have gotten your favorite games working. It's a mistake to install linux if you have a must-have app that isn't going to function.
I suspect that one of the most notorious behaviors detected and promptly investigated by the ever watchful TSA will be the attempt to conceal a large pair of breasts.
"Really, conspiracy theorists are just histrionic megalomaniacs. Rather myopic ones at that."
The only myopic people are those who swallow the line of the mainstream media verbatim, even when it contradicts itself and easily verifiable facts. The belief that only your government and media is much like believing that only your God is real and all the rest are fairy stories.
"Right, but Joe Smith the biologist has intent, whereas a bunch of atoms or a bunch of pharmaceutical companies don't."
How do you know? Do you attend their board meetings? Do you have access to their phone records, their email records, and taped accounts of business lunches etc? If you don't have that information you can only talk in terms of probabilities.
"If they can be taught basic methodology on Linux they sure as hell can be taught the same on Windows and with the benefit of getting a richer understanding of the software they're most likely to use in the future."
At school I had a BBC Micro environment, Archimedes, then Mac. At the same time, I was getting experience with the C64 and Dos. None of that prevented me from becoming a Windows power user.
And I don't want my kids dumbed down. And there is an advantage with Linux at the moment, because not only do they have to get their hands dirty to do a lot of complex things (which is highly instructive), there is a path to becoming even more adept because the source code of nearly everything is open. Even with the C64, it was basically LOAD "*",8,1. After you figured out the CLI, the average smart kid couldn't see the code of his favorite game if he wanted to. The most he could do is type out a pre-written program from a book, to produce some crappy ascii game. And probably get stuck with syntax errors.
These days a smart child could conceivably start his own distro, contribute with an open source project, or fork it himself. Kids have time to hack, and linux is more hacker friendly. If you have smart kids, programming skill is one of the best things that they can get because there is no industry with a lower capital hurdles than software.
If they grow up to be an admin, then they already are learning the tools of the job. I don't see MS taking over the server market, and I think they have no where to go but to cede market share to linux on the desktop.
"The bottom line is that Linux needs mainstream software support. People keep ignoring that. People at companies like Commodore and Atari will tell you that you have to be a fool to ignore it."
Mainstream software support would greatly stimulate Linux appeal. No one denies that. But it's not going to stop it. Linux market share would be going down if that argument were true, not increasing.
Comparing the hardware platforms of Commodore and Atari with Amiga also misses the mark. Even comparing different operating systems such as OS/2 is different. The lure of something truly free (not stolen, no strings attached) is immense, and it comes with the positive idealism of Open Source to boot. As a result, FLOSS operating systems have carved market (and mind) share inch by inch in very toxic conditions.
"Maybe within your own needs the apps out there are fine but lots of users are looking for apps that simply aren't out on Linux and the software publishers don't seem to be trying to satisfy that base market need."
It's not that black and white. Sure, it may be mainstream software support that pushes Linux from say, a 10% market share to market domination. If you have market share, the apps will come. But it will get to that initial 10% by a different means, one person at a time, finding those people for whom it DOES have the apps they require.
In fact, by failing to port to Linux quickly, companies like Photoshop may find that they will wind up in the position of Netscape. Users who have been happy with linux get trained to look first to the repositories. They may well persevere with something like Gimp before buying Photoshop. It's a bit like the advantage IE had in Windows, but in reverse.
As it is, Microsoft is in a bit of a quagmire. There are a glut of legacy XP machines on the market that will do everything most users require and can be converted to Linux easily. Malware is making those machines unusable and is a phenomenon that is growing. Upgrading to Vista realistically requires a new computer worth $$$. Microsoft can't make a new and non-bloated OS, because most of its sales come from new computers. And any move they make will take years because software doesn't get written overnight, a lot of their talent has left and they must also maximize backwards compatibility. There is good reason why Gates has been slowly selling his MS stock for a long time now.
If a user can switch to something like Ubuntu, it is a very rational economic decision to do so. A friend who can resurrect such a machine has just saved a friend a good chunk of change for work that probably only takes half a day. And economics is a powerful force for change.
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"The number of Linux users has been roughly flat for the last three years."
I don't know who w3schools are, but I'm very skeptical of those figures being representative of the majority of users. 3.4% in 2005? Seems high, even now.
I'm hugely impressed with the ability of modern distros to just work with stuff. Plug in a USB anything, and it's detected and operational. Even modern cameras. Install printer drivers, and you can print documents, spreadsheets, whatever. Web, email, p2p, anything. And unless you are a complete gaming addict, requiring every game at the highest frame rates and with zero work installing, you can have fun in linux gaming.
Linux keeps chip, chip, chipping away at the functions proprietary OSes have long monopolized. There are only so many uses of a computer, only so many killer apps, especially with respect to what the average person desires. It's certainly to the point where power users are switching, and they bring their friends while providing free tech support.
And computers are moving to be extremely low power, cheap, small footprint, zero maintenance (through solid state cap, no moving part designs) devices. Think Via Eden. No one wants a noisy, expensive to run, space consuming box that collects dust and may break down at any time. At this point, the M$ business model breaks down. On a computer worth $300, margins on everything get squeezed, especially things that can be produced for free but aren't (the OS). FOSS software is the logical thing to put on those boxes. Free, functional, secure. And without bloat.
Again, I don't know where that table came from, but I don't trust it. Only 7 or 8 years ago, the engineers and computer scientists I admired for their ability and would want to hire would often be running linux on their home desktop. I tried and failed - I was addicted to the M$ applications and M$ way of doing things. Most of the time, they'd give a little bit of help but then it would be RTFM.
These days I find people I would never expect to be running linux to be running it. These people are not professional computer programmers or systems administrators, but regular enthusiasts who don't have an IT day job, haven't gone to college, and who are the sorts of people who provide free tech support to their friends and family. Now it's just moderately smart people who have never even been to college, blue collar workers, children!
Even the fun atmosphere is coming back that reminds me of the days of the amiga and c64. People understanding the inner workings of their operating system, and being able to delve down because it's actually open. Making a friend happy because you have brought life to an old system, or showed them how to be free of malware, showed them that there is a viable alternative to downloading and searching for serial numbers, cracks or "free" software that is either illegal or has severe malware risks.
Cry wolf enough and often the wolf arrives.
It makes sense for HP to do this. Linux people in Australia are clamoring for a mainstream manufacturer to supply Linux, so essentially HP has a monopoly (among mainstream manufacturers) on Linux computers. People will pay a premium to get a new computer that "just works" with Linux.
If they released in the US, they'd be fighting an already entrenched Dell for market share. In addition, they can work out the kinks in a small, pilot market before rolling it out in the US, saving themselves mistakes that might cost 10 times as much. Makes sense to me.
"This is not such a big deal. Let the Chinese try to copy this. Then they'll only have to build the aircraft carriers, fighter jets, support ships to protect it."
Considering that they build everything else in the world, I'd give them 3 years.
But carrier battle groups and nation states are so 20th century. All you have to do to invade someone these days is walk over a border, set up a restaurant that serves tasty cuisine, make sure that you only buy raw materials and land, and have lots of children.
"Linux Ubuntu is not quite ready for the average user, but almost there. I've had to do a few more steps to get things to work then your normal click and go crowd, but not much more."
I think you are correct there. There's a gap in the middle between power user and web+email types who have needs a bit more complex but can't do more than "click and go". With the rate of improvement of Ubuntu I suspect that gap will disappear shortly.
It's getting close though. I'm reminded of the DOS days where a moderately intelligent kid could get most anything he wanted to run, it just took a bit of work. Unlike say, 5 or 6 years ago where your only help was an impenetrable man page that might be of use if you had a CS degree.
I suggest you go to distrowatch, check the rankings, and work down the list trying distributions (also try various BSDs). You can also click on them to read reviews. Anyway, the point is not to be fixated on the one distribution. There is very likely one distribution that supports your hardware out there. You just need to find it. And chances are you can download some for free from your ISP's ftp server.
1. This would require more than one person in a group being able to keep a secret.
2.
3. Hence, that would be a Conspiracy Theory (queue conditioned guffaws), impossible, and you don't believe in THOSE do you?
QED.
...is right twice a day.
"Yeah, there's still a few kinks. But whereas Linux was for tinkerers and hobbyists in the late 90s, and around when RH8 came out it became simple for the experienced computer user, now I'd be willing to throw linux in for any intermediate computer user. That is to say, not ready for Grandma yet but a hell of a lot closer than it ever has been."
I certainly agree with your sentiment that Linux has become WAY simpler over the last few years. I'm not sure whether I'd go so far as to say Linux became simple for the experienced computer user in late 2002. It all depends on what you do. The hard part is not really using it, that's easy. Even Grandma can use it, once she's taught which buttons to click.
The hard part is getting your hardware configured, chasing drivers, and figuring out how to do everything you used to do in Windows, but in Linux. The more varied the stuff you do, the harder it is. That's something Grandma will never do, but it's something that a certain class of power user has always done.
Linux is at the point where a good portion of these users will be able to make it through an install and never look back. It's only going to get easier now.
Neat! Not only does it have Linux, you managed to find firefox, TOR, vlcplayer... dude, what ARE you doing under that blanket?!
Those with a taste for good metal would have detected Gamma Ray in Japan after their album "Sigh No More" in 1992. Though I have no idea how they managed to get into a nuclear base.
"Not only are they not able to export, they end up importing cheaper, subsidized food."
Of course, the inevitability of this process implies a lack of import restrictions, and perhaps the sovereignty of their government in being able to impose such.
Not all drugs are as safe or benign as High Times, or your local self-justifying alcoholic, pothead, tripper, juicer or dealer would make out either. The worst of it is that an individual doesn't know how addictive they will find it until he tries it, by which time it is then impossible to un-addict himself.
"At least that is my hope in the enterprise, that the combination of commodity hardware with a commodity, high powered and stable OS can be coupled with increasingly powerful database engines such as mySQL"
Or could you use an already powerful and free database engine like Postgresql.
"You can't bribe someone to be a nerd. Either you are interested in learning about the world or they aren't." Maybe just interest alone is a sufficient condition to create a nerd. It won't create an engineer or a physicist. At some point along the line, you have to sit down and do problems which are either right or wrong according to the laws of nature, and often demonstrably so in a lab by anyone. Most people don't have that sort of ability.
"Read my lips: Internet can take it"
The internet's not going to take it, anymore. It's got the right to choose and, there's no way it'll lose it! This is its life, this is its song!"Linux IS a great desktop OS. It's just not a very good enterprise desktop OS. And as long as MS has a stranglehold on the enterprise desktop, they will have a stranglehold on a home desktop as well, because the money they make comes largely from businesses, who fund their cash cows like Office, so they can supply OEMs like Dell with Windows licenses for peanuts. It's like a magazine subscription - all about circulation. And Microsoft can offer what Linux still can't. So instead of "hating" on Microsoft, let's work to make Linux better and develop the "open" software it needs to compete with MS on a fundamental business level. Moving it into your house is easy if "this is what I use at work" comes into play."
Linux + rdesktop is an excellent enterprise desktop OS. That's a foothold.
I'm not sure how well I can code up an improved or alternative openoffice.org. What I can do is enlarge the linux "circulation" one user at a time, with a focus on those users who have needs that can actually be satisfied by linux and also those users switched on enough to be able to install for other people. If you install it, the developers will come.
"For a heavy Microsoft supporter, Macs are the unthinkable option - Linux is like the escape pod, cramped but familiar and you won't get as much merciless teasing from your compatriots."
Absolutely! Going Mac has never been an option for a lot of people who use or have used MS - otherwise we would have already. A lot of the reason we originally used MS came down to cost and freedom to use any old cheap hardware, at the expense of a bit of time and nous. It's a basic economic decision for many - obsolete computer with spyware-ridden OS can be transformed to new computer with 700meg (or less) download and a bit of fiddling.
"I am not saying Linux is bad, it's just not ready for primetime. Any time a user needs to compile or mess with a text file you've moved out of the mainstream and the average Joe isn't going to want to do anything like that. Other people in this topic have said as much as well."
Primetime for _whom_? From what I have experienced so far, there is a Linux distro that is suitable for
1) Programmers
2) Web + Email basic users who have someone else to do the install for them
3) Many power users
What's left is basically the hardcore gaming addict who simply must have the ability to play one particular game, and other classes of power user depending on application. Web + Email basic users can buy an Ubuntu dell.
"Yes, someone will list a bunch of games that run in Linux, and you know what? Most will suck. It doesn't run the games I WANT TO RUN. rFactor, GTR2, Battlefield 2 etc..."
Yes, that is a good point. Before you switch to linux, you have to do a bit of research to see whether other users have gotten your favorite games working. It's a mistake to install linux if you have a must-have app that isn't going to function.
I suspect that one of the most notorious behaviors detected and promptly investigated by the ever watchful TSA will be the attempt to conceal a large pair of breasts.
"Really, conspiracy theorists are just histrionic megalomaniacs. Rather myopic ones at that."
The only myopic people are those who swallow the line of the mainstream media verbatim, even when it contradicts itself and easily verifiable facts. The belief that only your government and media is much like believing that only your God is real and all the rest are fairy stories.
"Right, but Joe Smith the biologist has intent, whereas a bunch of atoms or a bunch of pharmaceutical companies don't."
How do you know? Do you attend their board meetings? Do you have access to their phone records, their email records, and taped accounts of business lunches etc? If you don't have that information you can only talk in terms of probabilities.
More than that, it needs an unlimited history, not a history of 500 edits after which content gets sent down the memory hole.
"If they can be taught basic methodology on Linux they sure as hell can be taught the same on Windows and with the benefit of getting a richer understanding of the software they're most likely to use in the future."
At school I had a BBC Micro environment, Archimedes, then Mac. At the same time, I was getting experience with the C64 and Dos. None of that prevented me from becoming a Windows power user.
And I don't want my kids dumbed down. And there is an advantage with Linux at the moment, because not only do they have to get their hands dirty to do a lot of complex things (which is highly instructive), there is a path to becoming even more adept because the source code of nearly everything is open. Even with the C64, it was basically LOAD "*",8,1. After you figured out the CLI, the average smart kid couldn't see the code of his favorite game if he wanted to. The most he could do is type out a pre-written program from a book, to produce some crappy ascii game. And probably get stuck with syntax errors.
These days a smart child could conceivably start his own distro, contribute with an open source project, or fork it himself. Kids have time to hack, and linux is more hacker friendly. If you have smart kids, programming skill is one of the best things that they can get because there is no industry with a lower capital hurdles than software.
If they grow up to be an admin, then they already are learning the tools of the job. I don't see MS taking over the server market, and I think they have no where to go but to cede market share to linux on the desktop.
"The bottom line is that Linux needs mainstream software support. People keep ignoring that. People at companies like Commodore and Atari will tell you that you have to be a fool to ignore it."
Mainstream software support would greatly stimulate Linux appeal. No one denies that. But it's not going to stop it. Linux market share would be going down if that argument were true, not increasing.
Comparing the hardware platforms of Commodore and Atari with Amiga also misses the mark. Even comparing different operating systems such as OS/2 is different. The lure of something truly free (not stolen, no strings attached) is immense, and it comes with the positive idealism of Open Source to boot. As a result, FLOSS operating systems have carved market (and mind) share inch by inch in very toxic conditions.
"Maybe within your own needs the apps out there are fine but lots of users are looking for apps that simply aren't out on Linux and the software publishers don't seem to be trying to satisfy that base market need."
It's not that black and white. Sure, it may be mainstream software support that pushes Linux from say, a 10% market share to market domination. If you have market share, the apps will come. But it will get to that initial 10% by a different means, one person at a time, finding those people for whom it DOES have the apps they require.
In fact, by failing to port to Linux quickly, companies like Photoshop may find that they will wind up in the position of Netscape. Users who have been happy with linux get trained to look first to the repositories. They may well persevere with something like Gimp before buying Photoshop. It's a bit like the advantage IE had in Windows, but in reverse.
As it is, Microsoft is in a bit of a quagmire. There are a glut of legacy XP machines on the market that will do everything most users require and can be converted to Linux easily. Malware is making those machines unusable and is a phenomenon that is growing. Upgrading to Vista realistically requires a new computer worth $$$. Microsoft can't make a new and non-bloated OS, because most of its sales come from new computers. And any move they make will take years because software doesn't get written overnight, a lot of their talent has left and they must also maximize backwards compatibility. There is good reason why Gates has been slowly selling his MS stock for a long time now.
If a user can switch to something like Ubuntu, it is a very rational economic decision to do so. A friend who can resurrect such a machine has just saved a friend a good chunk of change for work that probably only takes half a day. And economics is a powerful force for change.