Hate to break the news, but the nice police officer lied through his teeth to you. That law was
overturned 30 years ago.
In 1979, the Supreme Court ruled, in a case known as âBrown versus Texas,â(TM) that a Texas statute that defined as a crime the refusal of a person to identify themselves after they had been âlawfullyâ(TM) stopped by a police officer was a violation of that personsâ(TM) Fourth Amendment right. The actual statute, which was enacted in 1974, reads as follows:
38.02. Failure to Identify as Witness
"(a) A person commits an offense if he intentionally refuses to report or gives a false report of his name and residence address to a peace officer who has lawfully stopped him and requested the information."
The current laws are quite different in Texas.
Texas Penal Code, Title 8, Â38.02(a), reads
âoeA person commits an offense if he intentionally refuses to give his name, residence address, or date of birth to a peace officer who has lawfully arrested the person and requested the information.â
Texas doesn't even have a stop-and-identify law. Not only can you provide identity information verbally in Texas, as in most other states, you only have to provide it after you've been arrested.
So what IDE do you use for Python? I've used Eclipse and SPE with good success; we most frequently use Komodo at work. At PyCon last month, though, I won a 3-OS license for Wing, and have been really impressed at its introspection (much more challenging on a dynamic language than mere Java). Of course, it's not open source, but I'm not a purist.
nd I don't want to have to answer nine billion technical questions just to get it installed.
I'm sure someone can verify it, but I don't think Ubuntu asks more questions than XP. If you're a professional, you solve this problem by getting it preinstalled [dell.com].
I can. I can install the current Ubuntu in 3 questions flat: time zone, keyboard, and default or custom partitioning (or wubi if Windows is on the disk). I can even try the system before installing it, use the system while installing it, and keep using it after installing it - no reboots required.
With Windows, it's 9 questions and 2 reboots - and you get to watch a bunch of freaking ads while it installs. You can't try it before installing it. And you have the joy of typing in 40 random characters repeatedly until you get them right, to "prove" you're not a "pirate". Oh, and if you change the computer significantly, you get to call Microsoft and see if they'll let you keep using that copy, or make you buy another and start over. Hope you enjoyed it the first time.
No question - Ubuntu (and indeed, every mainstream Linux such as Fedora or Suse) is far easier to install than Windows.
But buy it pre-installed anyway. Nothing beats pre-installed for ease of installation.;-)
I have been a Mac, a Microsoft AND and OS2. NEVER has customer service EVER helped with my problems.
In fairness to IBM (am I really posting this?), when I tried OS/2 Warp (was that version 2.0? they years they pass quickly), it worked great.
Except... about once a day, it would crash. Just crater big-time. No warning, no symptoms. Freeze.
I called IBM, and the nice technical rep spent a solid hour debugging my system. Not the usual script-reader ("Are you sure the power switch is on?") - we went through system logs, did various experiments, and swapped in and out drivers trying to find the cause.
It was almost like following an active thread in a good Linux forum... except the person worked for IBM, and we never did solve the problem. I was so impressed by the effort, though, that I refused the offered refund.
So your "collegue" is trying to drive a nail into an oak board using a Sears screwdriver - and complaining that a less expensive screwdriver from Walmart shatters when abused that way. Have either of you ever heard of a freaking hammer!
"How many times dijja have to tell ya - the right tool for the job, Laddie!" - Lt. Cmdr. Scott
Although you're speaking facetiously, I'll answer your question honestly.
Americans have experienced the severe negative effects of air pollution. It would be unkind not to warn the world's largest democracy to avoid our mistake.
Technology molds society. After 70 years, American society cannot simply "stop driving". It will take a generation or more to transform American society into something compatible with less personal transportation - like, say, virtual living.
Not everyone in this forum has "talked down" to the developing world. Of those who have, not all "drive big Ford trucks". I drive a small Ford economy car, and power my house with 100% wind energy. So do I have your permission to warn Indians of the risk they are facing, and how they might avoid the worst effects?
I understand the point you are intending, but consider whether your bashing 300,000,000 people with such a broad bat isn't the moral equivalent of those who "talk down" to the developing world.
So maybe it is marketing. Maybe Apple needs to be praying to whatever deity they believe in that old Steve Jobs lives forever.
Couldn't agree more. I wouldn't want to have any Apple stock in my portfolio the day he dies.
Sorry, but Linux just isn't "cool" enough to get folks to shell out the big bucks replacing everything like they do for a Macbook.
Not yet. But I think we agree - Linux needs to be marketed such that it becomes "cool" enough that you gotta have it, and existing crap go hang. Look at the Wii - less expensive than Xbox 360 or PS3, and incompatible with everything that went before it - but they can't keep 'em on the shelf. They aren't popular because they're expensive and exclusive; they're popular because they're marketed as fun. Well, let's face it - they are fun!
Linux needs to be productized into something that can be marketed with an irresistible "fun factor". If it's too cool to resist, who cares if Lexmark sucks?
But I've caught your point - a small business person has no chance to create than kind of marketing for used computers running Linux. That will take a major player to pull off. I thought netbooks might be the market, but Microsoft has pounded the major retailers into submission. Again. No idea when or if it will happen - unless Microsoft can be neutered, and forced to compete on merit.
The ONLY way Linux will start making serious inroads in Windows marketshare is if two things come together. One, it has to allow one to sell the machine cheaper than a comparable Windows box, which is dependent on Two, the most important part, that all the crap that have from Walmart or picked up from Walmart will work WITHOUT needing a CD, because good luck getting a Linux CD with anything you buy from there.
...and yet, Macs cost remarkably more than Windows computers at the low end, and don't work with quite a large swath of Windows-compatible hardware. Yet they doubled their market share in the past two years, which isn't bad against a multiply-convicted and proudly ruthless monopolist.
So I don't think Linux needs perfect compatibility with every hardware option available to succeed (assuming success == market share, which is debatable).
Nope, what's missing is an insanely great marketing team led by a true visionary. Y'know, like Apple's Steve Jobs and the "I'm a Mac" commercials. More features are nice; low price is nice; compatibility with Walmart crap is nice. But marketing is irreplaceable.
Or look at the server market, where Linux sells well... by IBM, HP and Dell on their hardware. It sells because it's marketed well, and it's marketed well because IBM, HP and Dell make lots of money from it.
Or cell phones, where Linux dominates in Asia and is an up and comer in the USA (Android and Pre get all the press, but existing phones are doing quite well). Again, the cell phone makers and carriers are making a killing, so Linux is sold to the consumer with great marketing.
Windows is heavily marketed on its own, so you could sell refurbished computers with Windows installed. At the point where a desktop Linux distribution gets the same marketing love - because the company backing it intends to make a lot of money selling it - it will gain a lot of market share.
I think it's that simple. Of course, if the market was easy to understand, we'd all be millionaires.:-)
Anyway, thanks for the insight. I appreciate that you are out there trying to sell computers, and had trouble selling Linux because of Lexmark. I understand why. Open source seems to be "winning" everywhere but the desktop, so I have hopes that the desktop will also fall (though probably last), or else become irrelevant. We'll see.
Don't use Windows much, do ya? I support about 500 users, and it happens all the time. Corporate policy is reboot, reboot again, uninstall and reinstall, and then "reimage" the machine. That they have such a written policy is telling.
One interesting case where even that did not work was a malware checker that mis-identified a critical program file as infected (it wasn't). Fixing this required going to corporate IT and having them endlessly verify the problem before inserting an exception in the scanner's exception list - all while the team couldn't use that tool.
That's remarkably informative (so why is your post "+4 Interesting", I wonder?), as I've never owned a Lexmark. But I can't help wondering if the problem was your business model.
When I upgraded from Windows 3.1 to 95, both my printer and scanner were unsupported. But the people who sold me the computer enthusiastically sold me upgrades on both, because "they'll really take advantage of your new OS!".
Did you try upselling a better printer with the new computer, one that really shows off Linux's remarkable printing prowess?
Just a thought. And yes, I am considering doing exactly what I suggest. That would be more than informative - it would be educational!;-)
At extremely short unnoticeable tasks which no human would care to measure except in a benchmark.
Well, no, I disagree very much (or maybe you're overgeneralizing too much, not really sure). I believe you're only paying attention to the last benchmark - the Python-based Richards Benchmark - where the differences in machines of the same class are negligible. The earlier benchmarks, though, are highly relevant.
For example, several of the benchmarks deal with copying files between or among filesystems, and Linux is noticably faster than Vista in every case. In the case of moving large files (ahem, video) between hard disks, Vista is twice as slow as Linux or 7 - and I've heard several non-technical users complain of exactly this problem.
The time / # clicks to install is also very revealing with respect to 7, as people complain that "Linux is too hard to install". Yet people who migrate from XP to 7 will be required to fully re-install the OS - and that process is demonstrably harder than with Linux. (And you needn't bring up drivers - remember, the driver model changed with Vista, and a lot of existing hardware will never have drivers for Vista or 7. When my daughter bought a Vista laptop, her printer was incompatible. She gave it to me, and it works great with Ubuntu 8.04.)
So in processing speed (which perhaps was the extent of your interest?), I agree with you that the difference isn't worth sneezing over. But in the benchmarks that were the bulk of the article, Vista was a disgrace, and 7 is catching up to Linux in some but not all of the categories examined.
And before someone points out that I should have submitted a bug report...
I couldn't grok the rest of your sentence until I figured out you meant a bug report to Sun. I naturally assumed on first read you meant a bug report to the university for sending you a required form in an undocumented, proprietary format. "Bastion of Higher Learning"? Bah! Epic newbie fail. If it's not open, it's not knowledge. (tm)
Since the Palm Garnet emulation environment comes from the same company that makes the Pre (right?), isn't it reasonable to expect they invested the effort in the emulator to help the Pre rather than Nokia's N8x0 line? Sincere question - it looks too obvious for anyone to have missed, so maybe it's me that missed something. Won't be the first time.
I dunno - my wife and son love their Treos, and my daughter loves her Centro. I use a cheap phone along side a Nokia N800 - but I use the Palm emulator on the Nokia more than I'd like to admit.
Despite the unceasing prophets of doom, Palm has leveraged their ancient Garnet operating system for more years than any sane person would have expected.
Now that they have what looks like a very nice, modern, web-oriented OS, are you sure you want to bet against them?
I'm certainly disappointed as well. I want an unlocked phone that accepts my SIM card. I have no intention of switching carriers just to use a particular phone, even though my contract with AT&T is long expired.
Yes, but only those citizens that express an opinion - which in the USA is a small minority. So my voice has disproportionate weight, which I intend to use to advocate freedom at every turn.
As Linux gets better that cost [of switching from Windows] gets smaller... but it is a case where the product is already made, and covered their cost in the US and other areas.
Not really, I think, because the day Microsoft stops working on (and touting) the next great version of Windows is the day the world switches to alternatives. Or have you not heard anything about Windows 7 yet? (ahem)
Microsoft is stuck on an expensive treadmill, and they know it. The open source development model is working very well for their competitors - Windows share dropped below 90% for the first time in modern computer history this week (thanks more to BSD-based OS/X than Linux), IE is below 60% in some markets (thanks primarily to open source Firefox), and even the Office cash cow is looking a bit pale lately in light of its competitors - and Microsoft has no clue how to embrace, extend and extinguish it.
Nothing's certain, of course, but in configuring my portfolio for the coming market rebound, I am not betting on Microsoft stock.
OSS people are worried about the rights of users. "Users" means... for governments and companies, those organizations as singular beings.
Nope. OSS people (free software advocates) are worried about the rights of citizens.
I paid for the data*, and I demand the right to access it without paying a mandatory tax to Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, or anyone else. This demand is trivial from a technical standpoint; overcoming corporate influence in government offices is the challenge here.
* I'm obviously talking about government data intended to be shared, not F-22 source code, here.:-)
Also, the only time the debt hasn't been wildly growing out of control since 1980 was during the Clinton Admin.
...although only after the Republicans were swept into congressional power in 1994.
AFAICT, it doesn't matter which is "in power". Unless the citizens are threatening to toss the entire crew out of Washington (as, not coincidentially, we were threatening in 1994, when the budgets began to balance for 6 glorious years), neither reds nor blues have a lick of fiscal responsibility in their far too numerous bodies. The USA badly needs a Reform Party Redux to bring back some accountability.
You'll find the answer fighting any AI creatures in any FPS game on the planet. Computers still lack the tactical depth and flexibility of the human mind, and a remote link suffers from temporal, tactile and reliability shortcomings on the battlefield.
Perhaps in 20-50 years we'll be able to replace soldiers on the battlefield (land, air and sea), but in the meantime, wetware in the loop will win almost every battle.
You can, of course, keep buying new versions of existing aircraft, retiring the current fleet as it wears out, as long as you never stop the flow and thus keep the industrial base. The problem with this strategy is that you keep paying current dollars for obsolete technology. An F-4 just wouldn't survive very long on a modern battlefield - even if it was fresh off the assembly line.
Hate to break the news, but the nice police officer lied through his teeth to you. That law was overturned 30 years ago.
In 1979, the Supreme Court ruled, in a case known as âBrown versus Texas,â(TM) that a Texas statute that defined as a crime the refusal of a person to identify themselves after they had been âlawfullyâ(TM) stopped by a police officer was a violation of that personsâ(TM) Fourth Amendment right. The actual statute, which was enacted in 1974, reads as follows: 38.02. Failure to Identify as Witness "(a) A person commits an offense if he intentionally refuses to report or gives a false report of his name and residence address to a peace officer who has lawfully stopped him and requested the information."
The current laws are quite different in Texas.
Texas Penal Code, Title 8, Â38.02(a), reads âoeA person commits an offense if he intentionally refuses to give his name, residence address, or date of birth to a peace officer who has lawfully arrested the person and requested the information.â
Texas doesn't even have a stop-and-identify law. Not only can you provide identity information verbally in Texas, as in most other states, you only have to provide it after you've been arrested.
So what IDE do you use for Python? I've used Eclipse and SPE with good success; we most frequently use Komodo at work. At PyCon last month, though, I won a 3-OS license for Wing, and have been really impressed at its introspection (much more challenging on a dynamic language than mere Java). Of course, it's not open source, but I'm not a purist.
I can. I can install the current Ubuntu in 3 questions flat: time zone, keyboard, and default or custom partitioning (or wubi if Windows is on the disk). I can even try the system before installing it, use the system while installing it, and keep using it after installing it - no reboots required.
With Windows, it's 9 questions and 2 reboots - and you get to watch a bunch of freaking ads while it installs. You can't try it before installing it. And you have the joy of typing in 40 random characters repeatedly until you get them right, to "prove" you're not a "pirate". Oh, and if you change the computer significantly, you get to call Microsoft and see if they'll let you keep using that copy, or make you buy another and start over. Hope you enjoyed it the first time.
No question - Ubuntu (and indeed, every mainstream Linux such as Fedora or Suse) is far easier to install than Windows.
But buy it pre-installed anyway. Nothing beats pre-installed for ease of installation. ;-)
In fairness to IBM (am I really posting this?), when I tried OS/2 Warp (was that version 2.0? they years they pass quickly), it worked great.
Except... about once a day, it would crash. Just crater big-time. No warning, no symptoms. Freeze.
I called IBM, and the nice technical rep spent a solid hour debugging my system. Not the usual script-reader ("Are you sure the power switch is on?") - we went through system logs, did various experiments, and swapped in and out drivers trying to find the cause.
It was almost like following an active thread in a good Linux forum... except the person worked for IBM, and we never did solve the problem. I was so impressed by the effort, though, that I refused the offered refund.
So your "collegue" is trying to drive a nail into an oak board using a Sears screwdriver - and complaining that a less expensive screwdriver from Walmart shatters when abused that way. Have either of you ever heard of a freaking hammer!
"How many times dijja have to tell ya - the right tool for the job, Laddie!" - Lt. Cmdr. Scott
I understand the point you are intending, but consider whether your bashing 300,000,000 people with such a broad bat isn't the moral equivalent of those who "talk down" to the developing world.
I wish all politicians would take a cue from Algore and Hinton. Every time they "do something", something else gets screwed up.
So maybe it is marketing. Maybe Apple needs to be praying to whatever deity they believe in that old Steve Jobs lives forever.
Couldn't agree more. I wouldn't want to have any Apple stock in my portfolio the day he dies.
Sorry, but Linux just isn't "cool" enough to get folks to shell out the big bucks replacing everything like they do for a Macbook.
Not yet. But I think we agree - Linux needs to be marketed such that it becomes "cool" enough that you gotta have it, and existing crap go hang. Look at the Wii - less expensive than Xbox 360 or PS3, and incompatible with everything that went before it - but they can't keep 'em on the shelf. They aren't popular because they're expensive and exclusive; they're popular because they're marketed as fun. Well, let's face it - they are fun!
Linux needs to be productized into something that can be marketed with an irresistible "fun factor". If it's too cool to resist, who cares if Lexmark sucks?
But I've caught your point - a small business person has no chance to create than kind of marketing for used computers running Linux. That will take a major player to pull off. I thought netbooks might be the market, but Microsoft has pounded the major retailers into submission. Again. No idea when or if it will happen - unless Microsoft can be neutered, and forced to compete on merit.
The ONLY way Linux will start making serious inroads in Windows marketshare is if two things come together. One, it has to allow one to sell the machine cheaper than a comparable Windows box, which is dependent on Two, the most important part, that all the crap that have from Walmart or picked up from Walmart will work WITHOUT needing a CD, because good luck getting a Linux CD with anything you buy from there.
So I don't think Linux needs perfect compatibility with every hardware option available to succeed (assuming success == market share, which is debatable).
Nope, what's missing is an insanely great marketing team led by a true visionary. Y'know, like Apple's Steve Jobs and the "I'm a Mac" commercials. More features are nice; low price is nice; compatibility with Walmart crap is nice. But marketing is irreplaceable.
Or look at the server market, where Linux sells well... by IBM, HP and Dell on their hardware. It sells because it's marketed well, and it's marketed well because IBM, HP and Dell make lots of money from it.
Or cell phones, where Linux dominates in Asia and is an up and comer in the USA (Android and Pre get all the press, but existing phones are doing quite well). Again, the cell phone makers and carriers are making a killing, so Linux is sold to the consumer with great marketing.
Windows is heavily marketed on its own, so you could sell refurbished computers with Windows installed. At the point where a desktop Linux distribution gets the same marketing love - because the company backing it intends to make a lot of money selling it - it will gain a lot of market share.
I think it's that simple. Of course, if the market was easy to understand, we'd all be millionaires. :-)
Anyway, thanks for the insight. I appreciate that you are out there trying to sell computers, and had trouble selling Linux because of Lexmark. I understand why. Open source seems to be "winning" everywhere but the desktop, so I have hopes that the desktop will also fall (though probably last), or else become irrelevant. We'll see.
Don't use Windows much, do ya? I support about 500 users, and it happens all the time. Corporate policy is reboot, reboot again, uninstall and reinstall, and then "reimage" the machine. That they have such a written policy is telling.
One interesting case where even that did not work was a malware checker that mis-identified a critical program file as infected (it wasn't). Fixing this required going to corporate IT and having them endlessly verify the problem before inserting an exception in the scanner's exception list - all while the team couldn't use that tool.
I think you need to get out more... ;-)
That's remarkably informative (so why is your post "+4 Interesting", I wonder?), as I've never owned a Lexmark. But I can't help wondering if the problem was your business model.
When I upgraded from Windows 3.1 to 95, both my printer and scanner were unsupported. But the people who sold me the computer enthusiastically sold me upgrades on both, because "they'll really take advantage of your new OS!".
Did you try upselling a better printer with the new computer, one that really shows off Linux's remarkable printing prowess?
Just a thought. And yes, I am considering doing exactly what I suggest. That would be more than informative - it would be educational! ;-)
At extremely short unnoticeable tasks which no human would care to measure except in a benchmark.
Well, no, I disagree very much (or maybe you're overgeneralizing too much, not really sure). I believe you're only paying attention to the last benchmark - the Python-based Richards Benchmark - where the differences in machines of the same class are negligible. The earlier benchmarks, though, are highly relevant.
For example, several of the benchmarks deal with copying files between or among filesystems, and Linux is noticably faster than Vista in every case. In the case of moving large files (ahem, video) between hard disks, Vista is twice as slow as Linux or 7 - and I've heard several non-technical users complain of exactly this problem.
The time / # clicks to install is also very revealing with respect to 7, as people complain that "Linux is too hard to install". Yet people who migrate from XP to 7 will be required to fully re-install the OS - and that process is demonstrably harder than with Linux. (And you needn't bring up drivers - remember, the driver model changed with Vista, and a lot of existing hardware will never have drivers for Vista or 7. When my daughter bought a Vista laptop, her printer was incompatible. She gave it to me, and it works great with Ubuntu 8.04.)
So in processing speed (which perhaps was the extent of your interest?), I agree with you that the difference isn't worth sneezing over. But in the benchmarks that were the bulk of the article, Vista was a disgrace, and 7 is catching up to Linux in some but not all of the categories examined.
Just my $0.02.
And before someone points out that I should have submitted a bug report...
I couldn't grok the rest of your sentence until I figured out you meant a bug report to Sun. I naturally assumed on first read you meant a bug report to the university for sending you a required form in an undocumented, proprietary format. "Bastion of Higher Learning"? Bah! Epic newbie fail. If it's not open, it's not knowledge. (tm)
(Steps down off soapbox...)
Since the Palm Garnet emulation environment comes from the same company that makes the Pre (right?), isn't it reasonable to expect they invested the effort in the emulator to help the Pre rather than Nokia's N8x0 line? Sincere question - it looks too obvious for anyone to have missed, so maybe it's me that missed something. Won't be the first time.
I dunno - my wife and son love their Treos, and my daughter loves her Centro. I use a cheap phone along side a Nokia N800 - but I use the Palm emulator on the Nokia more than I'd like to admit.
Despite the unceasing prophets of doom, Palm has leveraged their ancient Garnet operating system for more years than any sane person would have expected.
Now that they have what looks like a very nice, modern, web-oriented OS, are you sure you want to bet against them?
I'm certainly disappointed as well. I want an unlocked phone that accepts my SIM card. I have no intention of switching carriers just to use a particular phone, even though my contract with AT&T is long expired.
If Palm wants to do so, they're going to have to do everything the iPhone does and do it better.
Um, copy and paste?
Yes, but only those citizens that express an opinion - which in the USA is a small minority. So my voice has disproportionate weight, which I intend to use to advocate freedom at every turn.
I like to think that, too. Of course, some vulnerabilities aren't that obvious in the source code, and some aren't visible in the source at all.
As Linux gets better that cost [of switching from Windows] gets smaller ... but it is a case where the product is already made, and covered their cost in the US and other areas.
Not really, I think, because the day Microsoft stops working on (and touting) the next great version of Windows is the day the world switches to alternatives. Or have you not heard anything about Windows 7 yet? (ahem)
Microsoft is stuck on an expensive treadmill, and they know it. The open source development model is working very well for their competitors - Windows share dropped below 90% for the first time in modern computer history this week (thanks more to BSD-based OS/X than Linux), IE is below 60% in some markets (thanks primarily to open source Firefox), and even the Office cash cow is looking a bit pale lately in light of its competitors - and Microsoft has no clue how to embrace, extend and extinguish it.
Nothing's certain, of course, but in configuring my portfolio for the coming market rebound, I am not betting on Microsoft stock.
OSS people are worried about the rights of users. "Users" means ... for governments and companies, those organizations as singular beings.
Nope. OSS people (free software advocates) are worried about the rights of citizens.
I paid for the data*, and I demand the right to access it without paying a mandatory tax to Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, or anyone else. This demand is trivial from a technical standpoint; overcoming corporate influence in government offices is the challenge here.
* I'm obviously talking about government data intended to be shared, not F-22 source code, here. :-)
Also, the only time the debt hasn't been wildly growing out of control since 1980 was during the Clinton Admin.
AFAICT, it doesn't matter which is "in power". Unless the citizens are threatening to toss the entire crew out of Washington (as, not coincidentially, we were threatening in 1994, when the budgets began to balance for 6 glorious years), neither reds nor blues have a lick of fiscal responsibility in their far too numerous bodies. The USA badly needs a Reform Party Redux to bring back some accountability.
I think you mean manned jets?
You'll find the answer fighting any AI creatures in any FPS game on the planet. Computers still lack the tactical depth and flexibility of the human mind, and a remote link suffers from temporal, tactile and reliability shortcomings on the battlefield.
Perhaps in 20-50 years we'll be able to replace soldiers on the battlefield (land, air and sea), but in the meantime, wetware in the loop will win almost every battle.
You can, of course, keep buying new versions of existing aircraft, retiring the current fleet as it wears out, as long as you never stop the flow and thus keep the industrial base. The problem with this strategy is that you keep paying current dollars for obsolete technology. An F-4 just wouldn't survive very long on a modern battlefield - even if it was fresh off the assembly line.
But the reality is that many of the wars of the next 20-30 years will probably look a lot more like Afghanistan and Iraq
You only need to lose one conventional war on your home turf to realize how important defense spending really is.