Point taken for the sigmoidal curve.
Though I still believe the next 10 will be marked by some drastic changes both in the technologies used and the way to use them.
Think about it, IT is a researching field, where tools are made to improve the making of future tools. The parallel with the phone development is clever, but it doesn't take in account that conputers are made to make computers (when users are done watching the kittens).
There will always be bottlenecks at the end of a technology's life, but there will always be discoveries to do things better, or differently, I'm thinking quantum computing.
Then again, the social factor is enormous. I see things like broadband for mostly everyone and everywhere, with mostly everyone participating and using it, happening really soon.
Anyway it's gonna be interesting.
You forgot two things.
First, technology tends to grow exponentially. It reaches a limit at one moment, but overall, the faster it goes, the faster it gets.
Second, the impact of the social media is extremely huge, I live in Asia, and in my city nearly everybody who can access a computer owns a facebook account, that's a LOT of people.
Online presence will not be more different for the generations born in the last 10 than phone calls are for us, that's a major change.
What many seem to forget is that lately, many late users (I mean users attracted to a higher use of Teh Interwebz by social media and such) are currently worrying about their privacy. The IRC/Usenet generation might still see privacy as "doing whatever I want under cover of anonymity", but the later users see it as "I don't want my boss to see my Nekd Disco Foam Night photos where I'm pole dancing with three transvestites and a horse photos I just uploaded".
From there onward it's just a matter of time until someone has the idea to make our online publication a 'real' private belonging. How can it be done without linking it to our IRL identity ?
Think about it :
I blurb on your blog about a wiki mashup
No scam or spam, O google
No phising nor pharming O youtube
Only Boingo, and Linkedin and Jaiku
For I am a good netizen
All the web is already in Vogon's poetry.
"So, like, let's upgrade the hardware of the cheapest laptop ever in order to make it altogether more expensive and profitable for us, the kids can wait.
I mean,like, what reasonably good OS can fit on only 1GB ?
And, yes, this poor kids out there should share our values on, like, you know, intellectual property, copyright, and of course, open source. Because open source is, like, you know, evil, right ?"
Er.. eh... No ?
Let's all slap Utzschneider thrice and hand it to his mama.
I am the kind of near sighted mole that fall asleep after thirty minutes reading. Eye fatigue.
One day, my dad bought me this strangle little piece for Boris Vian, about werewolves and killer lesbians. I was thirteen. I loved it.
I went to my dad and screamed "I CAN HAS MOAR !". He just showed me the bookshelves. "Has moar, my son, hundreds just waiting for you."
The reading room was wonderful, fresh, sunny. The kind of place I'd now stay in for a smoke and some pages. Browsing the shelves was an experience, reaching the top ones was another, it sealed my relationship with books.
I don't want to imagine what I'd have become had my father said : "Sorry son, I have 13.000 books on my kindle, but by law, I cannot lend them to you. And stop speaking lolctaz."
Slashdot Mirror
So, like, with so much information on, like, the interwebs, earth will turn into a black hole in 2012?
Point taken for the sigmoidal curve. Though I still believe the next 10 will be marked by some drastic changes both in the technologies used and the way to use them. Think about it, IT is a researching field, where tools are made to improve the making of future tools. The parallel with the phone development is clever, but it doesn't take in account that conputers are made to make computers (when users are done watching the kittens). There will always be bottlenecks at the end of a technology's life, but there will always be discoveries to do things better, or differently, I'm thinking quantum computing. Then again, the social factor is enormous. I see things like broadband for mostly everyone and everywhere, with mostly everyone participating and using it, happening really soon. Anyway it's gonna be interesting.
You forgot two things. First, technology tends to grow exponentially. It reaches a limit at one moment, but overall, the faster it goes, the faster it gets. Second, the impact of the social media is extremely huge, I live in Asia, and in my city nearly everybody who can access a computer owns a facebook account, that's a LOT of people. Online presence will not be more different for the generations born in the last 10 than phone calls are for us, that's a major change.
What many seem to forget is that lately, many late users (I mean users attracted to a higher use of Teh Interwebz by social media and such) are currently worrying about their privacy. The IRC/Usenet generation might still see privacy as "doing whatever I want under cover of anonymity", but the later users see it as "I don't want my boss to see my Nekd Disco Foam Night photos where I'm pole dancing with three transvestites and a horse photos I just uploaded". From there onward it's just a matter of time until someone has the idea to make our online publication a 'real' private belonging. How can it be done without linking it to our IRL identity ?
Think about it : I blurb on your blog about a wiki mashup No scam or spam, O google No phising nor pharming O youtube Only Boingo, and Linkedin and Jaiku For I am a good netizen All the web is already in Vogon's poetry.
"So, like, let's upgrade the hardware of the cheapest laptop ever in order to make it altogether more expensive and profitable for us, the kids can wait.
I mean,like, what reasonably good OS can fit on only 1GB ?
And, yes, this poor kids out there should share our values on, like, you know, intellectual property, copyright, and of course, open source. Because open source is, like, you know, evil, right ?"
Er.. eh... No ?
Let's all slap Utzschneider thrice and hand it to his mama.
When I was a kid, I hated books.
I am the kind of near sighted mole that fall asleep after thirty minutes reading. Eye fatigue.
One day, my dad bought me this strangle little piece for Boris Vian, about werewolves and killer lesbians.
I was thirteen.
I loved it.
I went to my dad and screamed "I CAN HAS MOAR !". He just showed me the bookshelves. "Has moar, my son, hundreds just waiting for you."
The reading room was wonderful, fresh, sunny. The kind of place I'd now stay in for a smoke and some pages. Browsing the shelves was an experience, reaching the top ones was another, it sealed my relationship with books.
I don't want to imagine what I'd have become had my father said : "Sorry son, I have 13.000 books on my kindle, but by law, I cannot lend them to you. And stop speaking lolctaz."
This stuff really makes my wanna scream. I found a new logo for them in here.