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User: Rei

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  1. Re: Good on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yes, that would be totally meaningful if it wasn't nonsense.

    Model 3 margins are now positive - without any AWD and P in the mix. Now expected to be 15% this quarter. Much of the cost this quarter was from a restructuring (incl. severance from layoffs), which turns from an expense into a cost savings from Q3 onward. 11k cars were stockpiled in Q2 to avoid the 200k limit - aka, Tesla had to pay for them but got no money from them (but will this quarter). Model 3 production rates dramatically accelerated over Q2 and continue to accelerate; Q3 Model 3 deliveries will be 3x higher than Q2, and Q3 model 3 revenue growth even more than that due to the higher-optioned mix (half of all new sales are now AWD or P, which weren't even available in Q2).

    Are you in Egypt? Because it appears that you're writing your post from de' Nile.

  2. Re: Good on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 2

    It may interest you to know that a (admittedly tired) Musk apologized twice on the conference call. An investor told him: "Don't let the trolls get you down, but we do like it when you tease the trolls a bit"

    I think I'll take their advice to Musk: "Bite me."

  3. Re:$11 billion in debt on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 4, Insightful

    $11 billion in debt and they are working on this? What a pedo

    Total assets ($k): 27,910,000
    Total liabilities ($k): 22,642,887
    Cash on hand ($k): 2,236,424
    Combined gross automotive margins: 20,6% GAAP / 21% non-GAAP
    Model 3 margins: Now slightly positive, in a quarter without any of the higher-margin AWD / P models sold (the latter two now make up half of all deliveries)
    Guidance for Model 3 margins this quarter: 15%
    Guidance for sustained profitability as a company: This quarter onward
    Market says: +9% in after-hours trading

    Aww, I'm sorry, did you have some short positions against the company?

  4. Re:Software easter eggs have to be hidden! on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 1

    The thing that's silly is that "this" is the Tesla news. On the day that Tesla released its Q2 report and investor call.

    (Obi-Wan voice): "This is not the news you're looking for"

  5. Re: Good on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 4, Funny

    The burning smell you're detecting is the money you put into TSLA short positions. TSLA up 9% in after hours trading.

    I love how you guys pay interest (sometimes at loan shark rates) for the privilege of losing money betting against the company ;)

  6. Re:Good on Tesla Is Adding Atari Games To the In-Car Display (theverge.com) · · Score: 1

    They're actually planning to have the actual steering wheel be the controller for Pole Position.

  7. Re:300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 1

    If a truck isn't rolling it's costing you money.

    And if a truck is rolling without spending the mandatory half hour break (much more in the EU - 45 minutes every 4 1/2 hours), it's costing a heck of a lot more money.

    500 mi + 80% * 500mi = 900mi, divided by 55mph = 16 hours = much more than you can legally drive in a day. About 65-70mph you start approaching breakeven, where the increased energy consumption and reduced-time-to-travel starts bumping up against your daily limits, and over that, the electric truck does start to slow you down. Of course, in Europe you never will hit the limits due to the much greater rest requirements, no matter how fast you drive.

    Fleets will absolutely not switch to electric or hydrogen unless it becomes cheaper then diesel,

    Electricity is already far cheaper than diesel. Semi uses about 1,600Wh/mi. Forget Tesla's promised price for electricity - even forget industrial rates. Say you're charging it on average home rates (aka, expensive electricity), $0,13/kWh. That's 21 cents per mile. How much do you pay for diesel? 40 cents? Electricity prices are also much steadier. Diesel prices, not so much.

    . Their lifetime is around 15 years, 9 years under warranty.

    1. Not the same technology (SOFC vs. PEMFC). SOFCs usually have about three times the lifespan of PEMFCs in a FCV.
    2. Low power devices (APU rather than FCV) means that they can be overbuilt (lower power density), which increases longevity. Remember that there's many orders of magnitude difference between the power output of an APU and a the needs of a FCV.
    3. APUs only run while idling

  8. Re: 300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 2

    It literally says the exact opposite. The title of the article is "Tesla Semi test program partner says that performance specs are for real". Said partner is XPO Logistics, who, in a conversation with Morgan Stanley, stated:

    The Tesla semi has already received important validation from some customers. We spoke with mgmt. at XPO Logistics, one of the largest logistics companies in the country, that has been talking to Tesla on their EV semi for the past 18 months, including testing live prototypes. XPO mgmt. confirmed that in their testing, the features and capabilities of the truck mostly lived up to Tesla’s claims at the launch event, including the performance vs. diesel trucks up a 5% grade (55 mph vs 45 mph), recharging time, safety/anti jackknifing features and payload (similar to a typical diesel truck, as confirmed by Tesla).

    You stated "There is no testing by fleet operators." Are you saying that XPO Logistics isn't a fleet operator?

  9. Re: 300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 1
  10. Re: Where are you going to get the fuel? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 2

    Or contrarily, if you don't have a good location for pumped hydro, and operating on the premise that grid-scale battery storage is not cost effective, you could use said excess-power-hydrogen to create far-easier-to-store fuels while simultaneously removing CO2 from the atmosphere (e.g. reverse water gas shift + Fischer-Tropsch, Sabatier, or a number of other processes). There's also electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (ERC).

  11. Re:300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 2

    1) Multiple trucks exist. You're confusing "existing" with "being in mass production"

    2) There is no nationwide network of either. The difference is that fuel for the electric truck costs an order of magnitude less than for the hydrogen truck, which is the most important factor for fleet operators.

    3) As a general rule, EV batteries are cheaper and longer lifespan than fuel cells, too. FCVs having to also have a battery pack, just a smaller one.

  12. Re: 300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 1

    I guess the trucks they've had driving across the country and undergoing testing by fleet operators are a hallucination.

  13. Re:300 mi range and a sleeper cab? on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 2

    The Tesla truck comes in two versions, 300 and 500 miles. They charge to 80% in in half an hour at a megacharger station, aka during a US trucker's mandatory rest break (we have much more frequent rest requirements here).

    Battery speculation runs between 600 and 1000 kWh.

  14. Re:This is the truck of the future! on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You're citing a "FutureGen" reference from 2005, backed up by a dead link.

    Google "hydrogen price per kg", since a kg of hydrogen is approximately a gallon of gasoline equivalent. Prepare to be disappointed.

  15. This truck is a triumph. on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 2

    I'm making a note here: "Huge Success".

  16. This is the truck of the future! on Toyota Unveils Project Portal 2.0 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Semi Truck (cnet.com) · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ... said someone from 1996, maybe.

  17. Re: Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    You know very well I didn't say "only". I stopped after I found clear unambiguous references on the most obvious places a visitor to the site would visit.

    Your obsession over the change in the order page when they changed how they were doing orders is duly noted. Goodbye.

  18. Re: Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    Yes, when I want to "memory hole" a model, I leave it up on the two most prominent places on the website that people would go to look for information about it.

  19. Re:Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    ** to be more specific

  20. Re:P/E versus expectations on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    No but it does provide some sense of where the current price of a company is compared to similar companies and whether it might over or under valued

    Yes, if the company's CEO is Benjamin Button and it travels backwards in time.

  21. Re:Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    He drive 510km at normal highway speed in Norway in the tyres/wheels that the car comes with. What do you want Rei, what specific set-up do you require for the Rei Certified Efficient Driving Range Test?

    You don't have to do "Youtube drive tests" to measure efficiencies. That's what drive cycles are for. Hyundai expects Kona to receive a 250 mile rating in the US. Tesla expects Model 3 SR to receive 220 miles. LR received 310, but RWD was downrated from 334. These are the facts. I'm sorry if you don't like them.

    Look at the speedometer

    He specifically stated that the average was 120. Regardless of what the speedometer happened to show at some random time.

    He was doing the speed limit or slightly above. Most of Europe has the same limit.

    1. Nope.
    2. You've been acting like that's "fast", "inefficient". When in reality it's below average.

    He got 220 miles, which is the same as the similarly priced Model 3 SR gets with efficient driving.

    What's your obsession with ignoring formal drivecycle measurements? Guess I have to repeat what I wrote before: "Model 3 LR starts at $44k USD. You're adding PUP and who knows what else in. The "long range" Kona starts at £34,500 in the UK (no US pricing yet). So subtracting 20% VAT and converting to USD, that's $37830. Pricewise, that's slotting in 31% of the way between SR and LR. Range-wise, that's 33% of the way between SR and the nominal LR range of 310 miles, or 26% of the way between SR and the measured LR range of 334 miles."

    And your beloved Model 3 also tanks efficiency at higher speeds. That's how drag works

    To be more specifically, drag works by CdA. Kona's Cd is reported as 0,29, Model 3's is 0,22. A is not 32% more in Model 3. Do the math.

    And the Kona is still showing better efficiency at 120 kph in Bjorn's test.

    189 Wh/km / 304Wh/mi is not better than Model 3 at 120 kph / 75mph (on aero wheels and eco tires like the Kona). Not even better than the heavier Model 3 LR, let alone Model 3 SR. 304 Wh/mi at 120kph/75mph is Model S levels of energy consumption, not Model 3.

    Since you prefer ancedotes to drivecycles, here you go.

    Wheels: unknown. Time of year unknown. Lifetime average: 267 Wh/mi, primarily at 79-83 mph: "Have you set a separate trip meter at 75 mph to see what your wh / mi would be?" "Yep I’ve tested that. Goes down to about 244 Wh/mi.

    Wheels: unknown. January in Portland : "75 mph - 303 wh/mile"

    Wheels: unknown. Time of year unknown "Similar numbers. Model 3 LR, ~600 miles, 19" wheels, Colorado. 239Wh/mile, majority at 65-75mph."

    Wheels unknown: ". In summer, dry road conditions I am able to get 285 miles on a full charge driving 75-80 MPH, or 305 miles if I back it down to 65 MPH." (285 mi = 263 Wh/mi) "going 75 MPH over 200 miles, I lost around 35 miles of rated range" (275mi = 272 Wh/mi) "Long road trip on very hot days: 80 mph with A/C I lost 20% of my range. I have 18" w/Aeros on. I think that's as bad as it could ever get." (258mi = 290 Wh/mi)

    Random Model 3s: "All other Wh/mi at hwy speeds (75/80/90) were much higher than in your figure. I've seen 255-300 "

    These are just the first hits I get for searching "model 3 Wh/mi 75mph

  22. Re: Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 0

    Yes, they transitioned for US/Canada buyers from a reservation system to a direct order system. You expect them to let you direct order and pay for a config that they can't give you yet? Tesla has repeatedly confirmed that the Model 3 SR is still on for the start of next year - including after the direct order transition.

    I swear, if Tesla was photographed repainting the employee parking lot, the next day there would be an article on Seeking Alpha about how Tesla is hiding cracks and the ground under the Tesla factory is subsiding and will soon collapse and Musk is trying to repress employees from talking about it.

  23. Re:Regular orders or filling back orders? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 0

    What market do you think haruchai was talking about when they said "Federal tax credit"?

    Not that it it matters, but in my market we have no credit, but instead have no VAT on EVs, which is an even bigger thing, combined (obviously) with the lack of emissions fees. That's saving like 40% vs. an equivalent gasoline vehicle. We also have $8/gal gasoline and cheap electricity. ;)

  24. Re:share price update on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    funny, day trader is the only type of trader that Tesla really makes sense for. any other type of traders die very fast if they make brain dead investments like Tesla

    People keep asserting that.
    Said people keep being proven wrong and losing their shirt.

  25. Re: Trucks? on Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com) · · Score: 1

    Apparently "shitboxen" earn the highest consumer satisfaction rating in the industry.