Doxxing is digging into someone's personal info in order to attack them in real life. Googling their name and seeing that they have been programming for quite a while when they tell you they don't know how to hardly rises to that standard.
1) Vern Unsworth did not save anyone. He wasn't even on the rescue team. He reported the situation and provided information on the cave to the resuers. 2) The minisub idea wasn't Musk's idea. Musk's idea was an inflated conduit. 3) The minisub was asked of him by Rick Stanton, the co-head of the rescue team. Including specifications for it to build it to. 4) If telling someone to shove a submarine up their ass is not trolling, then trolling has no meaning. 5) Even after Musk apologized, Unsworth's mother called for Musk to be shot.
Fun fact: Tripp has denied both knowing how to code or use any sort of hacking tools. Funny story, people dug into his claims and found his Stack Overflow account, Adafruit acccount, Scribd, etc, and found that not only does he know how to code, he was even helping answer coding questions for others.
Trip responded by deleting all of his old accounts.
Fun fact #2: Want to take a guess as to the only other thing on his Scribd account apart from docs on packet sniffing tools and the like? If you guessed "NRA gun documents, you win a prize!" When asked about this, he had the most hilarious alibi ever: why, he was only had the NRA gun docs to trade for Kansas guitar tabs! Because that's a totally normal internet trade commodity, dontchaknow!
Fun fact #3: Tripp has gone back and deleted all of his old alibi tweets, and the tweets where he admitted to having Tesla property.
If you have interest in Tesla (and regardless of how it turns out, it really is the financial story of the decade, with such passion and huge bets on both sides of the aisle - and will be talked about for many decades to come), you should read the quarterly newsletters and join the investor calls. All of this comes from there. Old conference call transcripts are kept public at Seeking Alpha (you can probably find audio of them on YouTube), and you can find the quarterly newsletters here. There won't be another one until three months from now, of course.
The Slashdot summary was a bit off. The actual quote from Tesla is: " We believe that increasing capacity by improving utilization of our existing lines and making selective improvements to address bottlenecks rather than creating entirely new duplicated lines will be the most capital efficient approach. "
It's a forward-looking statement, not a past looking statement. I'm actually surprised that you haven't heard about GA4. The Sprung structure that they built has commonly been called "The Tent" in the media, although that gives a misleading impression; Sprung structures are rated to withstand major earthquakes and have survived category 5 hurricanes, can be fully climate controlled, and are used from the tropics to the high arctic (I definitely recommend going to Sprung's website and reading about them, they're rather cool). Also, a common misnomer is that there's only one; there's actually several at the Tesla factory, this is just the largest.
That article has been ridiculed so many times. Want more examples? Let me know when you're done with that one.
But golly gee, you're right about him being our God! Why, it's the ONE TRUE RELIGION! We have far more proof of our savior than any other religion, you know! (/snark)
SG&A goes with all stages - getting the order, keeping it, delivering it, and post sales support. And it doesn't go close to linear with any aspect of them, because A) economies of scale, B) G&A (you're only focusing on S), and C) large portions of SG&A have to be spent well in advance of the revenue that they are responsible for.
And deliveries grew by 36%, despite the huge number in transit.
Lastly:
We'll see if Q3 is profitable or not - because you (and many others) claimed Q2 would be, and we see it's far from that.
This is pure, unadulterated BS, and you know that very well. Neither I, nor anyone else I've ever seen on any place on the internet (and I've heard from a lot of people, both bulls and bears), was expecting Q2 to be profitable, nor was Tesla calling for Q2 to be profitable. Not a single exception. Everyone was expecting a loss in Q2 as Tesla rolled in restructuring costs and high numbers of vehicles in transit, in prep for the planned profit in Q3. If you feel the need to lie about the other side, that's called a straw man argument, and does not reflect well on you.
Lastly: the market's response says all you need to know about Q2 expectations vs. actuality.
Would you rather some nerdier colour from the conference call? Okay, here's one.
We all know the story of how Tesla's original plan for GA3 (General Assembly 3) was to have an automated conveyor belt system transport parts from the warehouse to each of the assembly workstations. Unfortunately, it just didn't work; they had to tear it out and do the transport manually. However, when general assembly became a bottleneck, they built a whole new line (GA4) in a Sprung structure, partly out of scrap - including said conveyor system, which now transports the cars down the line as they're assembled.
What we found out today, however, was that they had a problem with the conveyor system in the engineering phase: since it was designed for transporting parts, not whole cars, it wasn't up to the job. It could hold a car fine, but the motors weren't strong enough to move it reliably. Their solution? Let gravity give them a boost. The GA4 line is built at a 1% downward grade, which reduces stress on the motors to within their design tolerances.
Interestingly enough, the Sprung structure solved the warehouse transport problem on its own. Since it's a long, narrow structure surrounded by roads, trucks could just back up to each workstation and unload their boxes of parts right there - no centralized warehouse needed, and no redundant unloading / reloading work
Q1: Produced 24,728 vehicles. SG&A=686,404 Q2: Produced 53,339 vehicles. SG&A=750,759
Vehicle production doubles. SG&A increases by 9%
Your notion that SG&A would just linearly rise with production was nonsense, and I warned you of this. You refused to believe me. Well, that comes at your peril. Seriously, how did you even think that was supposed to even happen? Money has to go somewhere. Where's the hiring to support a linear SG&A scaleup? Where's the extra office space? Where's any of it? Nowhere, that's where. Your linear SG&A rise is, and always has been a myth. Because economies of scale are an actual thing, and only a small fraction of SG&A goes to direct one-on-one customer service.
But wait, it gets better! Because as I also pointed out to you, and you refused to listen, restructuring and severance costs are a hit in Q2 but a benefit from Q3 onward. That's right, the Q2 figures are inflated, which will then translate to deflation in Q3. You're probably still refusing to believe this. Live in denial all you want, it's not my money you're throwing away.
Even revenue is artificially deflated this quarter by the 11k vehicles held back to avoid hitting 200k ("in transit"). Multiply that by a typical sale value - that's nearly 600m in revenue right there. Now compare that to the change in cash on hand. Notice anything?
Should I bother to mention that no ZEV credits were claimed at all this quarter?
Face reality or not: Tesla is transforming into an ongoing profitable venture. This quarter.
I'm holding 4 $305p 8/3s at 16.98ea. The fourth contract was bought on margin by accident during the fiasco this morning. I'm going bankrupt.
Tesla up 9%, I officially have no f***** idea how the stock market works
LOOOOOLLL.. My wife is going to kill me after I get margin called off these puts
WHY CANT I MAKE ONE F****** TRADE OMG IM SO BAD AT THIS S***, ELON YOU F******* NOODLE HEAD
What in the everliving f***
i hope the conference call just f***** up the call holders - please dear god elon say the n-word
"First options trade ever, 8/17 put at 250. Do I just assume my money is gone or can I recover some of this?" "LOL Musk would have to commit a mass shooting at the Fremont factory for this put to be worth anything."
That page is a schadenfreude laugh riot right now;)
First off, here's the full post I submitted. It goes into much more detail:
After the release of Tesla's Q2 results and followed by the investor call, Tesla's stock surged around 9% in aftermarket trading today. Among the main drivers: automotive gross margins rose to 21%, Model 3 gross margins turned positive (before the start of sales of AWD and performance variants, which are making up half of all new orders), and the reiteration and reinforcement of guidance for sustainable profitability from Q3 onward. Q3 production rates are expected to be around 4k/wk average while achieving a 6k/wk line speed, and a Model 3 gross margin of 15% is expected (25% is targeted in Q1-Q2). Some lines are on track to reach 10k/wk before the end of the year, but achieving that rate with all lines and suppliers is not anticipated until next year. Sales in Q3 will be boosted as the current delivery backlog clears, while restructuring and severance costs, realized in Q2, will reduce expenses starting in Q3. Cash on hand in Q2 declined from $2,66B to $2,23B; no ZEV credits were claimed during this period. While no longer using a reservation system in the US for first-production orders (retaining it only for less expensive Model 3 variants and overseas orders), new North American first-production orders are making up a large portion of current orders; consequently, no changes are announced for timing of overseas orders. The average selling price is expected to remain high "for several quarters" due to "a richer mix in the initial wave of Model 3 deliveries to Europe and APAC"; the "normalization of the Model 3 average selling price" is anticipated in the second half of 2019, and is not expected to impact gross margins, due to improved production cost efficiency over time.
On the conference call, Musk sounded tired and admitted to getting too little sleep. He apologized twice, but was told by an investor: "Don't let the trolls get you down, but we do like it when you tease the trolls a bit"
Secondly: your Q1 number is wrong. Loss attributed to shareholders in Q1 was 20,8% of revenues, not 17,5%.
But again, companies aren't valued based on past revenue. They're based on the present value of future revenue. A past balance sheet may draw your attention to a company (for good or bad reasons), but it does not substitute for modeling the company's fundamentals. Which includes what margins they'll be getting on sales in upcoming quarters, what production numbers will be in upcoming quarters, etc, as well as properly handling deferred revenue and one-time costs. And as noted above, Q2 was full of them, all of them to the benefit of Q3 and beyond.
If you don't understand why the market is up over 9% after this report, you probably shouldn't be investing in this stock. The numbers in this report make it quite clear that Tesla is highly likely to be profitable in Q3. And this is the result of years of capex, R&D, and a long-hard scaleup slog. You pay, then later you reap the rewards. Not simultaneously.
Okay, how about this: I'm an actual shareholder, and Tesla has been doing easter eggs from Day 1, and they're always very popular and well received. It's a trivial amount of labour relative to the amount of positive feedback it generates. Kids especially love them (yes, a large chunk of Tesla owners, like the general population, have children). Unlike with past easter eggs, in this case, Tesla isn't even writing the games - they're just emulated Atari games. I fully, 100% support this, and think they should have done this a lot sooner.
I'd actually like to see a whole app store ecosystem, but obviously they need to be sure - if they go that route - that it operates only in a very tightly locked down virtual machine. Possibly restricted only to "respectable", established developers.
Ed: that should read under 1/3rd. The exact number varies from survey to survey (several have been done), some as low as 1/5th, some as high as 1/3rd. I've never seen one come in at over 1/3rd. Of course, Tesla has the most accurate info.
since they have 400,000 waiting for the $35,000 version.
Except that's not even remotely true. The mix has continually polled at only about a third of reservation holders wanting SR. The biggest chunk of untapped orders is Europe and Asia/Pacific. They don't even start selling over here until next year:
I read on the Tesla Motor Club site that customers are getting cars in two weeks now.
If you're really, really lucky. The average wait times are measured in months. But some fast deliveries have happened.
Yes, of course it goes without saying that this is only allowed when the car is stationary. But in case it doesn't go without saying: to quote Musk from Twitter: "while stationary tbc haha"
Slashdot Mirror
Doxxing is digging into someone's personal info in order to attack them in real life. Googling their name and seeing that they have been programming for quite a while when they tell you they don't know how to hardly rises to that standard.
Because this. ;)
Yes. I'm not sure what's hard for you to understand that. If you give the police info, are you a police officer?
Do people actually like Car Play / Android Auto?
1) Vern Unsworth did not save anyone. He wasn't even on the rescue team. He reported the situation and provided information on the cave to the resuers.
2) The minisub idea wasn't Musk's idea. Musk's idea was an inflated conduit.
3) The minisub was asked of him by Rick Stanton, the co-head of the rescue team. Including specifications for it to build it to.
4) If telling someone to shove a submarine up their ass is not trolling, then trolling has no meaning.
5) Even after Musk apologized, Unsworth's mother called for Musk to be shot.
Followed by Amazon.
Fun fact: Tripp has denied both knowing how to code or use any sort of hacking tools. Funny story, people dug into his claims and found his Stack Overflow account, Adafruit acccount, Scribd, etc, and found that not only does he know how to code, he was even helping answer coding questions for others.
Trip responded by deleting all of his old accounts.
Fun fact #2: Want to take a guess as to the only other thing on his Scribd account apart from docs on packet sniffing tools and the like? If you guessed "NRA gun documents, you win a prize!" When asked about this, he had the most hilarious alibi ever: why, he was only had the NRA gun docs to trade for Kansas guitar tabs! Because that's a totally normal internet trade commodity, dontchaknow!
Fun fact #3: Tripp has gone back and deleted all of his old alibi tweets, and the tweets where he admitted to having Tesla property.
Correct. The factory was gutted except for some small equipment purchases.
If you have interest in Tesla (and regardless of how it turns out, it really is the financial story of the decade, with such passion and huge bets on both sides of the aisle - and will be talked about for many decades to come), you should read the quarterly newsletters and join the investor calls. All of this comes from there. Old conference call transcripts are kept public at Seeking Alpha (you can probably find audio of them on YouTube), and you can find the quarterly newsletters here. There won't be another one until three months from now, of course.
The Slashdot summary was a bit off. The actual quote from Tesla is: " We believe that increasing capacity by improving utilization of our existing lines and making selective improvements to address bottlenecks rather than creating entirely new duplicated lines will be the most capital efficient approach. "
It's a forward-looking statement, not a past looking statement. I'm actually surprised that you haven't heard about GA4. The Sprung structure that they built has commonly been called "The Tent" in the media, although that gives a misleading impression; Sprung structures are rated to withstand major earthquakes and have survived category 5 hurricanes, can be fully climate controlled, and are used from the tropics to the high arctic (I definitely recommend going to Sprung's website and reading about them, they're rather cool). Also, a common misnomer is that there's only one; there's actually several at the Tesla factory, this is just the largest.
Tesla: NY Post article accusing Elon Musk of fraud is a total fraud
That article has been ridiculed so many times. Want more examples? Let me know when you're done with that one.
But golly gee, you're right about him being our God! Why, it's the ONE TRUE RELIGION! We have far more proof of our savior than any other religion, you know! (/snark)
Chefs have been raving over the eggs, too :) Demand is so high that European chefs don't even get any until next year :P
SG&A goes with all stages - getting the order, keeping it, delivering it, and post sales support. And it doesn't go close to linear with any aspect of them, because A) economies of scale, B) G&A (you're only focusing on S), and C) large portions of SG&A have to be spent well in advance of the revenue that they are responsible for.
And deliveries grew by 36%, despite the huge number in transit.
Lastly:
This is pure, unadulterated BS, and you know that very well. Neither I, nor anyone else I've ever seen on any place on the internet (and I've heard from a lot of people, both bulls and bears), was expecting Q2 to be profitable, nor was Tesla calling for Q2 to be profitable. Not a single exception. Everyone was expecting a loss in Q2 as Tesla rolled in restructuring costs and high numbers of vehicles in transit, in prep for the planned profit in Q3. If you feel the need to lie about the other side, that's called a straw man argument, and does not reflect well on you.
Lastly: the market's response says all you need to know about Q2 expectations vs. actuality.
Correct. Wow, you can do math.
Would you rather some nerdier colour from the conference call? Okay, here's one.
We all know the story of how Tesla's original plan for GA3 (General Assembly 3) was to have an automated conveyor belt system transport parts from the warehouse to each of the assembly workstations. Unfortunately, it just didn't work; they had to tear it out and do the transport manually. However, when general assembly became a bottleneck, they built a whole new line (GA4) in a Sprung structure, partly out of scrap - including said conveyor system, which now transports the cars down the line as they're assembled.
What we found out today, however, was that they had a problem with the conveyor system in the engineering phase: since it was designed for transporting parts, not whole cars, it wasn't up to the job. It could hold a car fine, but the motors weren't strong enough to move it reliably. Their solution? Let gravity give them a boost. The GA4 line is built at a 1% downward grade, which reduces stress on the motors to within their design tolerances.
Interestingly enough, the Sprung structure solved the warehouse transport problem on its own. Since it's a long, narrow structure surrounded by roads, trucks could just back up to each workstation and unload their boxes of parts right there - no centralized warehouse needed, and no redundant unloading / reloading work
Q1: Produced 24,728 vehicles. SG&A=686,404
Q2: Produced 53,339 vehicles. SG&A=750,759
Vehicle production doubles. SG&A increases by 9%
Your notion that SG&A would just linearly rise with production was nonsense, and I warned you of this. You refused to believe me. Well, that comes at your peril. Seriously, how did you even think that was supposed to even happen? Money has to go somewhere. Where's the hiring to support a linear SG&A scaleup? Where's the extra office space? Where's any of it? Nowhere, that's where. Your linear SG&A rise is, and always has been a myth. Because economies of scale are an actual thing, and only a small fraction of SG&A goes to direct one-on-one customer service.
But wait, it gets better! Because as I also pointed out to you, and you refused to listen, restructuring and severance costs are a hit in Q2 but a benefit from Q3 onward. That's right, the Q2 figures are inflated, which will then translate to deflation in Q3. You're probably still refusing to believe this. Live in denial all you want, it's not my money you're throwing away.
Even revenue is artificially deflated this quarter by the 11k vehicles held back to avoid hitting 200k ("in transit"). Multiply that by a typical sale value - that's nearly 600m in revenue right there. Now compare that to the change in cash on hand. Notice anything?
Should I bother to mention that no ZEV credits were claimed at all this quarter?
Face reality or not: Tesla is transforming into an ongoing profitable venture. This quarter.
*** present value of future profits. Not revenue.
From r/wallstreetbets:
That page is a schadenfreude laugh riot right now ;)
First off, here's the full post I submitted. It goes into much more detail:
Secondly: your Q1 number is wrong. Loss attributed to shareholders in Q1 was 20,8% of revenues, not 17,5%.
But again, companies aren't valued based on past revenue. They're based on the present value of future revenue. A past balance sheet may draw your attention to a company (for good or bad reasons), but it does not substitute for modeling the company's fundamentals. Which includes what margins they'll be getting on sales in upcoming quarters, what production numbers will be in upcoming quarters, etc, as well as properly handling deferred revenue and one-time costs. And as noted above, Q2 was full of them, all of them to the benefit of Q3 and beyond.
If you don't understand why the market is up over 9% after this report, you probably shouldn't be investing in this stock. The numbers in this report make it quite clear that Tesla is highly likely to be profitable in Q3. And this is the result of years of capex, R&D, and a long-hard scaleup slog. You pay, then later you reap the rewards. Not simultaneously.
Yep. Virtual rumble strips. Someone on M3OC just the other day was discovering that for the first time as well :)
Okay, how about this: I'm an actual shareholder, and Tesla has been doing easter eggs from Day 1, and they're always very popular and well received. It's a trivial amount of labour relative to the amount of positive feedback it generates. Kids especially love them (yes, a large chunk of Tesla owners, like the general population, have children). Unlike with past easter eggs, in this case, Tesla isn't even writing the games - they're just emulated Atari games. I fully, 100% support this, and think they should have done this a lot sooner.
I'd actually like to see a whole app store ecosystem, but obviously they need to be sure - if they go that route - that it operates only in a very tightly locked down virtual machine. Possibly restricted only to "respectable", established developers.
Ed: that should read under 1/3rd. The exact number varies from survey to survey (several have been done), some as low as 1/5th, some as high as 1/3rd. I've never seen one come in at over 1/3rd. Of course, Tesla has the most accurate info.
Except that's not even remotely true. The mix has continually polled at only about a third of reservation holders wanting SR. The biggest chunk of untapped orders is Europe and Asia/Pacific. They don't even start selling over here until next year :
If you're really, really lucky. The average wait times are measured in months. But some fast deliveries have happened.
Yes, of course it goes without saying that this is only allowed when the car is stationary. But in case it doesn't go without saying: to quote Musk from Twitter: "while stationary tbc haha"
If you're actually a shareholder you may be interested in knowing that there's no space in the word "shareholder".
There's only one game that I hope they *never* include in the car:
Katamari Damacy