I believe that the biggest innovations in this period will come from genetics and biomedical advances. Most cancers may be curable in an appropriate genetic fashion by 2020-30. By contrast, today's chemo and radiation is like doing brain surgery with a sledgehammer. Auto-immune diseases (read diabetes, cirrosis, lupus, etc...) while poly-genic, and hence more complicated than most cancers, may be curable by 2050. Finally, there is the aging question. 120 years most of which is healthy by 2050? Maybe.
Of course, a person will have to go through quite a few more career changes over that period of time.
Then there is nano-tech. While it will not reach fruition by 2050, the ground work will be laid.
We'll see cheaper space flight perhaps accessible to the very rich that will make the Concorde look like a horse and buggy.
And I believe the Internet and computers have had a dramatic effect on product quality, delivery time, work-life tradeoffs, flexibility, ability to communicate way beyond the neighborhoods of the 1950s. I have a 1970 Datsun 240z, considered to be the hot car of 1970 and still a sought after collectors item. Compared to my 2001 PT Cruiser, it's no where near the quality or fit and finish even fully restored. While still fun to drive, it's much more dangerous, especially in bad weather.
Those innovations he mentions were critical in those periods. However, can't conclude that innovation has slowed.
I'd argue another hypothesis: innovation accelerates in war and slows in peace time and also moves in cycles of rapid innovation and then quality improvement and market penetration on "generational" boundaries.
However, the 1990s have proven an exception as the 1870s-00s did. Part of the generational cycle.
BTW, there are War for Sourthern Ind. era re-enactments or campouts is a better word to duplicate the Christmas season at that time. Santa Claus was a relatively new concept and was not the main focus. The religious part of Christmas was far more important to far more Americans (%-wise) than today. These events tend to be private and small.
Go study German history 1900-45. Or various eras in Roman history. Lucas' theories are not strong social science but may be instructive to many who *don't* take the time to read real history.
BTW, I have expereinced "living history" at War for Southern Independence re-enactments with some of those people (both sides) far up the scale on American history knowledge.
We've trampled over the Constitution in incredible ways. That celebration is in July, however, while I have great respect for the Const., I believe our government violated it starting in 1861.
The beauty is that, *maybe*, the new Star Wars trilogy will be instructive to most Americans who don't understand their history or how Republics become Empires.
I believe Christmas, despite its partial pagan origins, is a much better holiday. Much more festive and real.....
BTW, I'm mostly French, then German, then part Irish and Native American. If I recall, those French "European asses" saved ours twice! 1781 and 1812-15 (Napolean, nonetheless).
Don't know about Santa as much....seems to me, if I recall, a late 18th century or early 19th century legend.
However, Christmas even as currently defined is a combination Christian and Pagan (and perhaps Atheist?) holiday. Jesus, best scholars know was born somewhere between 6BC and 2BC, probably in the early Spring (the shepherds would not have kept their sheep in the fields at night in December). And please don't ask me for proof, this is from memory.
Soemtime in the 200-400 AD range (don't remember), a Christian convert Emperor of the Roman Empire wanted to spread Christianity and so led the combination of the Roman Sun celebration (right after the Winter Solstice (sic?)) with Jesus' "birthday". Hence the formation of the holiday known today as Christmas.
Well, I'm assuming this is a sell the desktop request. I hate to say this, but IBM already attempted this with a superior product, OS/2.
And if you have not used the Warp 4 Workplace Shell and compared it to GNOME or KDE, try it before flaming. It has a beautfully consistent object model based on SOM. Of course, Warp 4 does not support the new hardware....you have to go back to a 1996 machine or so. One of the main reasons Warp could not win was MS Office did not run on it. Also, IBM is not good at selling consumer items like that. They will not charge up *that* hill again!
IBM will sell the server side vigorously (though that will not be 100 million any time soon) and perhaps form partnerships to sell embedded/pervasive Linux (that could get to 1 billion in short order).
With the exception of providing a good desktop development environment and reasonable productivity tools for developers, it's a waste of time to go after enterprises or home users without the key apps. That was the last war; it's over, even with the cheaper desktops. The enterprises are locked into Office; the home users into the games, productivity tools, education SW and other multi-media on Windows. The only other opportunity are vertical application desktops (e.g. terminals, network computers, kiosks, etc... dedicated to a single app. And that app needs to be ported to Linux.).
BTW, I don't work for IBM, but used to and was on the core team that LeBlanc mentions here.
While I believe that intelligent life is extremely rare in the universe, the universe is so large that there is a lot of it, but very sparsely distributed.
Worse, I believe, if am recalling properly, that *our* first transmission strong enough to be detected from deep space was Hitler at either the 1936 Olympics or a Nuremburg rally. That would be our "first" impression on other intelligent and technically capable life.
This is true from a UNIX/Linux perspective technically....however, from a market share perspective....it's NT/W2K still as #1....esp in OS and server HW revenue. Linux has a ways to go vs. NT/W2K in share and vs. AIX technically.
Richmond, VA. -- (CSNews) -- December 1, 2000 -- A resolution to the election is finally at hand. President George W. Bush of the Conservative States of America (CSA, the states in red 11/08, not to be confused with the Confederate States of the 1860s) announced that he and President Al Gore of the Liberal States of America (LSA, and please don't call them the "loser" states) have reached a momentous agreement that solves the impasse of the election of 2000. Mediated by the United Kingdom, the United States of America(tm) is hearby
dissolved and is split into two nations based on the red and blue states of 11/08. The CSA will have its capital in Richmond, VA. And the LSA will retain Washington D.C. The UK takes over trademark rights to the name "United States of America" as compensation for its mediation.
Further, despite public opinion to the contrary, the new presidents immediately set to work accomplishing key agenda items. For example,
with the LSA split, having states on both coasts, they needed transportation rights between them on the interstate highways, railways and air space. President Al Gore comments, "We are very excited to have negotiated an arrangement with the CSA for access to their transportation space. We have enacted a new tax on the citizens of the LSA to pay for these at the rate of 100% of the previous costs to do so under the USA(tm) and have met one of my key goals for new taxes." President Bush added, "This is working out much better than the old system. President Gore gets his tax increases, while I can implement my tax cuts."
Additionally, the LSA will disband its military and offer the option for its people to join the CSA military or the LSA Internal Revenue
Service, which now will be armed. President Bush comments, "Well, they (the LSA) were against a strong military anyway. We might as well take it over and let them allocate resources where they see fit. We will vigorously support the Monroe Doctrine of 1820 and defend the rights of LSA citizens to pay taxes." Al Gore concurred, "This is great! I'm accomplishing so much more in the LSA than I could have possibly done in the old USA!"
President Al Gore also got his Congress and states to repeal the 2nd Amendment concerning arming the people. President Gore comments, "Under our new law, only the IRS, special police forces and criminals have the right to possess guns. The people of the LSA don't believe that honest people know how to use them properly nor control themselves. We will collect the guns and auction them to the highest bidder amongst those groups and the citizens of the CSA."
On the new Constitution in general, President Bush states, "We're working to grant more freedom to the States and the People of the CSA. We're not yet ready to make any announcement, but will soon." President Gore adds, "We're working closely with the CSA on these Constitutional issues. Whatever new freedoms they develop, we're going to make sure to outlaw them in the LSA."
And in a final statement on the settlement Governor Jeb Bush announced and agreement with Mayor Rudolph Guiliani of New York City on the transfer of Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties of the Sovereign State of Florida to New York City as the 6th, 7th, and 8th Boroughs. Governor Jeb Bush states, "Well, those people have a lot more affinity with New Yorkers than they do with the rest of the CSA especially in terms of voting skill and political beliefs. Both sides felt it was for the best."
Asked why he picked Richmond, Virginia as the capital of the new CSA and not Austin, President Bush adds, "Well, I want to be close to Washington D.C. so that I can work closely with President Gore. I think it was an appropriate choice as well to enable us to meet more often and get a lot accomplished as we have already demonstrated."
(tm) USA and United States of America are trademarks of the United Kingdom.
Who cares? By the time the govt (in either party) gets around to decreeing and implementing a remedy...it won't matter. Indeed, MS becoming a big company and the world of the Internet moving so fast that they can't keep up is a good thing.
Hate to tell you, pardner, but where I live, $60K is working class, *not* even middle class....houses are >$400K average, etc.... Unless you have good stock options:-). Now I have a Texas background , but live just north of NYC these days.....don't get confused by the "accent" or the handle...I would consider anyone under $200K (including me) to be middle to upper middle class (not rich), at least around here.
We don't have to secede. Bush won. Let's throw them out of the Union and exile Al Gore to that place! They don't want him in Tennessee anyway. Where can we send him? CA, NY?;-)
Let the liberals on the west coast and NE have Al Gore. Let the rest of us secede (we have most of the military bases this time:-)) and keep Bush and maybe link up with that new charismatic and conservative president in Mexico.
Given liberal policy on the military, it shouldn't take too long for the rest of us to whip'em!
Linux should be improved to make it the choice platform for running web application servers (e.g. BEA WebLogic), enterprise databases and B2* e-business and e-commerce suites. For the kernel this means better SMP and perhaps even NUMA support. Means demonstrably better security than old UNIX or NT.
This is important because if the pure Linux companies want to be profitable, especially on a service or hardware model, then they have to be able to supply and be the choice for more complex solutions than firewalls, http servers and file/print. It's starting to happen, but more must be done.
Probably the latter.....but the PS/2 is more or less long gone from any mind share. The trademark is PS/2 not PS2. However, PS/2 is generally considered a failure and I wouldn't want anything new I was doing associated with it.
I had to read the/. post twice and look at the picture. PS2 could well mean the old IBM Microchannel-based PC.....bad connotation....one would think Sony would know that.
If we are just finding this now, just think how many extinction sized rocks are out there that can hit earth. The *only* thing that has saved us so far is the vastness of space and low probability. But over time.....
It's a great strategy for S/390 customers. Great visibility and further pushing Linux into the mainstream. However, how will IDC and Dataquest (and most importantly, Wall St.) count the S/390 Linux server HW revenue?
On one hand if one counts every 390....IBM just blew past VA, Dell and Compaq....if they count usage....we'll see....the market share battles just got more interesting.....
If you saw the debate last night, then you know Joe Lieberman, taking a page from Big Al's playbook, clarified who was the true visionary that started open source!
While all of the milestones and breakthrus by various OSS leaders, companies, organizations were critical to today's OSS movement, I believe IBM used to ship its OS source code with the 7000s and 1400s in the 1950s and take fixes and enhancements from customers. I also believe CICS was created by a customer community. Not exactly OSS of today, but.....
Slashdot Mirror
I believe that the biggest innovations in this period will come from genetics and biomedical advances. Most cancers may be curable in an appropriate genetic fashion by 2020-30. By contrast, today's chemo and radiation is like doing brain surgery with a sledgehammer. Auto-immune diseases (read diabetes, cirrosis, lupus, etc...) while poly-genic, and hence more complicated than most cancers, may be curable by 2050. Finally, there is the aging question. 120 years most of which is healthy by 2050? Maybe.
Of course, a person will have to go through quite a few more career changes over that period of time.
Then there is nano-tech. While it will not reach fruition by 2050, the ground work will be laid.
We'll see cheaper space flight perhaps accessible to the very rich that will make the Concorde look like a horse and buggy.
And I believe the Internet and computers have had a dramatic effect on product quality, delivery time, work-life tradeoffs, flexibility, ability to communicate way beyond the neighborhoods of the 1950s. I have a 1970 Datsun 240z, considered to be the hot car of 1970 and still a sought after collectors item. Compared to my 2001 PT Cruiser, it's no where near the quality or fit and finish even fully restored. While still fun to drive, it's much more dangerous, especially in bad weather.
Those innovations he mentions were critical in those periods. However, can't conclude that innovation has slowed.
I'd argue another hypothesis: innovation accelerates in war and slows in peace time and also moves in cycles of rapid innovation and then quality improvement and market penetration on "generational" boundaries.
However, the 1990s have proven an exception as the 1870s-00s did. Part of the generational cycle.
Pressed submit too soon. Sorry.
BTW, there are War for Sourthern Ind. era re-enactments or campouts is a better word to duplicate the Christmas season at that time. Santa Claus was a relatively new concept and was not the main focus. The religious part of Christmas was far more important to far more Americans (%-wise) than today. These events tend to be private and small.
Jesus Christ was born in the Roman Empire. I do not believe that province was called "Israel" at the time. I believe it was Judea.
Go study German history 1900-45. Or various eras in Roman history. Lucas' theories are not strong social science but may be instructive to many who *don't* take the time to read real history.
BTW, I have expereinced "living history" at War for Southern Independence re-enactments with some of those people (both sides) far up the scale on American history knowledge.
We've trampled over the Constitution in incredible ways. That celebration is in July, however, while I have great respect for the Const., I believe our government violated it starting in 1861.
The beauty is that, *maybe*, the new Star Wars trilogy will be instructive to most Americans who don't understand their history or how Republics become Empires.
I believe Christmas, despite its partial pagan origins, is a much better holiday. Much more festive and real.....
BTW, I'm mostly French, then German, then part Irish and Native American. If I recall, those French "European asses" saved ours twice! 1781 and 1812-15 (Napolean, nonetheless).
Thanks, I'm getting old. I did not remember all of that ;-).....
Don't know about Santa as much....seems to me, if I recall, a late 18th century or early 19th century legend.
However, Christmas even as currently defined is a combination Christian and Pagan (and perhaps Atheist?) holiday. Jesus, best scholars know was born somewhere between 6BC and 2BC, probably in the early Spring (the shepherds would not have kept their sheep in the fields at night in December). And please don't ask me for proof, this is from memory.
Soemtime in the 200-400 AD range (don't remember), a Christian convert Emperor of the Roman Empire wanted to spread Christianity and so led the combination of the Roman Sun celebration (right after the Winter Solstice (sic?)) with Jesus' "birthday". Hence the formation of the holiday known today as Christmas.
Sorry, not legally possible....though I certainly would want to see it. Give the boys at GNOME and KDE a run for their ..... fill in the blank.
Well, I'm assuming this is a sell the desktop request. I hate to say this, but IBM already attempted this with a superior product, OS/2.
And if you have not used the Warp 4 Workplace Shell and compared it to GNOME or KDE, try it before flaming. It has a beautfully consistent object model based on SOM. Of course, Warp 4 does not support the new hardware....you have to go back to a 1996 machine or so. One of the main reasons Warp could not win was MS Office did not run on it. Also, IBM is not good at selling consumer items like that. They will not charge up *that* hill again!
IBM will sell the server side vigorously (though that will not be 100 million any time soon) and perhaps form partnerships to sell embedded/pervasive Linux (that could get to 1 billion in short order).
With the exception of providing a good desktop development environment and reasonable productivity tools for developers, it's a waste of time to go after enterprises or home users without the key apps. That was the last war; it's over, even with the cheaper desktops. The enterprises are locked into Office; the home users into the games, productivity tools, education SW and other multi-media on Windows. The only other opportunity are vertical application desktops (e.g. terminals, network computers, kiosks, etc... dedicated to a single app. And that app needs to be ported to Linux.).
BTW, I don't work for IBM, but used to and was on the core team that LeBlanc mentions here.
While I believe that intelligent life is extremely rare in the universe, the universe is so large that there is a lot of it, but very sparsely distributed.
Worse, I believe, if am recalling properly, that *our* first transmission strong enough to be detected from deep space was Hitler at either the 1936 Olympics or a Nuremburg rally. That would be our "first" impression on other intelligent and technically capable life.
This is true from a UNIX/Linux perspective technically....however, from a market share perspective....it's NT/W2K still as #1....esp in OS and server HW revenue. Linux has a ways to go vs. NT/W2K in share and vs. AIX technically.
If it's the general server market (e.g. Intel), then #1 is NT/W2K. If it's Linux 390, then #1 is OS/390.
Richmond, VA. -- (CSNews) -- December 1, 2000 -- A resolution to the election is finally at hand. President George W. Bush of the Conservative States of America (CSA, the states in red 11/08, not to be confused with the Confederate States of the 1860s) announced that he and President Al Gore of the Liberal States of America (LSA, and please don't call them the "loser" states) have reached a momentous agreement that solves the impasse of the election of 2000. Mediated by the United Kingdom, the United States of America(tm) is hearby
dissolved and is split into two nations based on the red and blue states of 11/08. The CSA will have its capital in Richmond, VA. And the LSA will retain Washington D.C. The UK takes over trademark rights to the name "United States of America" as compensation for its mediation.
Further, despite public opinion to the contrary, the new presidents immediately set to work accomplishing key agenda items. For example,
with the LSA split, having states on both coasts, they needed transportation rights between them on the interstate highways, railways and air space. President Al Gore comments, "We are very excited to have negotiated an arrangement with the CSA for access to their transportation space. We have enacted a new tax on the citizens of the LSA to pay for these at the rate of 100% of the previous costs to do so under the USA(tm) and have met one of my key goals for new taxes." President Bush added, "This is working out much better than the old system. President Gore gets his tax increases, while I can implement my tax cuts."
Additionally, the LSA will disband its military and offer the option for its people to join the CSA military or the LSA Internal Revenue
Service, which now will be armed. President Bush comments, "Well, they (the LSA) were against a strong military anyway. We might as well take it over and let them allocate resources where they see fit. We will vigorously support the Monroe Doctrine of 1820 and defend the rights of LSA citizens to pay taxes." Al Gore concurred, "This is great! I'm accomplishing so much more in the LSA than I could have possibly done in the old USA!"
President Al Gore also got his Congress and states to repeal the 2nd Amendment concerning arming the people. President Gore comments, "Under our new law, only the IRS, special police forces and criminals have the right to possess guns. The people of the LSA don't believe that honest people know how to use them properly nor control themselves. We will collect the guns and auction them to the highest bidder amongst those groups and the citizens of the CSA."
On the new Constitution in general, President Bush states, "We're working to grant more freedom to the States and the People of the CSA. We're not yet ready to make any announcement, but will soon." President Gore adds, "We're working closely with the CSA on these Constitutional issues. Whatever new freedoms they develop, we're going to make sure to outlaw them in the LSA."
And in a final statement on the settlement Governor Jeb Bush announced and agreement with Mayor Rudolph Guiliani of New York City on the transfer of Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties of the Sovereign State of Florida to New York City as the 6th, 7th, and 8th Boroughs. Governor Jeb Bush states, "Well, those people have a lot more affinity with New Yorkers than they do with the rest of the CSA especially in terms of voting skill and political beliefs. Both sides felt it was for the best."
Asked why he picked Richmond, Virginia as the capital of the new CSA and not Austin, President Bush adds, "Well, I want to be close to Washington D.C. so that I can work closely with President Gore. I think it was an appropriate choice as well to enable us to meet more often and get a lot accomplished as we have already demonstrated."
(tm) USA and United States of America are trademarks of the United Kingdom.
Who cares? By the time the govt (in either party) gets around to decreeing and implementing a remedy...it won't matter. Indeed, MS becoming a big company and the world of the Internet moving so fast that they can't keep up is a good thing.
Hate to tell you, pardner, but where I live, $60K is working class, *not* even middle class....houses are >$400K average, etc.... Unless you have good stock options :-). Now I have a Texas background , but live just north of NYC these days.....don't get confused by the "accent" or the handle...I would consider anyone under $200K (including me) to be middle to upper middle class (not rich), at least around here.
We don't have to secede. Bush won. Let's throw them out of the Union and exile Al Gore to that place! They don't want him in Tennessee anyway. Where can we send him? CA, NY? ;-)
Army No. Va.
Let the liberals on the west coast and NE have Al Gore. Let the rest of us secede (we have most of the military bases this time :-)) and keep Bush and maybe link up with that new charismatic and conservative president in Mexico.
Given liberal policy on the military, it shouldn't take too long for the rest of us to whip'em!
Army No. Va.
Linux should be improved to make it the choice platform for running web application servers (e.g. BEA WebLogic), enterprise databases and B2* e-business and e-commerce suites. For the kernel this means better SMP and perhaps even NUMA support. Means demonstrably better security than old UNIX or NT.
This is important because if the pure Linux companies want to be profitable, especially on a service or hardware model, then they have to be able to supply and be the choice for more complex solutions than firewalls, http servers and file/print. It's starting to happen, but more must be done.
Probably the latter.....but the PS/2 is more or less long gone from any mind share. The trademark is PS/2 not PS2. However, PS/2 is generally considered a failure and I wouldn't want anything new I was doing associated with it.
I had to read the /. post twice and look at the picture. PS2 could well mean the old IBM Microchannel-based PC.....bad connotation....one would think Sony would know that.
If we are just finding this now, just think how many extinction sized rocks are out there that can hit earth. The *only* thing that has saved us so far is the vastness of space and low probability. But over time.....
It's a great strategy for S/390 customers. Great visibility and further pushing Linux into the mainstream. However, how will IDC and Dataquest (and most importantly, Wall St.) count the S/390 Linux server HW revenue?
On one hand if one counts every 390....IBM just blew past VA, Dell and Compaq....if they count usage....we'll see....the market share battles just got more interesting.....
Army No. Va.
If you saw the debate last night, then you know Joe Lieberman, taking a page from Big Al's playbook, clarified who was the true visionary that started open source!
While all of the milestones and breakthrus by various OSS leaders, companies, organizations were critical to today's OSS movement, I believe IBM used to ship its OS source code with the 7000s and 1400s in the 1950s and take fixes and enhancements from customers. I also believe CICS was created by a customer community. Not exactly OSS of today, but.....
Unfortunately you are correct...too bad....cause I really liked the WPS.... now when are the KDE and GNOME guys going to catch up to the WPS?