It's dropped by 4% this morning; now only 238e+06.
The beginning of the end....? Probably not. Pity there is no/. effect on stock prices: if we all want it, really, REALLY hard will Tinkerbell drive the price down?
I just checked SCO's stock price and their p/e is 137: this means it would take 137 YEARS of their earnings to get back their stock market valuation.
Microsoft, for comparison, trades with a p/e of 31 or so.
Either a lot of people REALLY believe SCO is going to produce a lot of money in the future, or they believe someone is going to buy them out.
Thousands of channels ain't gonna happen
on
TV's Tipping Point
·
· Score: 1
We're not going to see "thousands of streams of content" any time soon because someone has to make the stuff:
10,000 channels * 24 hours = 240,000 hours per day
Assume a 2 hour film takes 100 people six months, then
1 hour of film requires 60,000 person.hours to produce (assuming 10 hours/day * 20 days/month)
So, every day, there must be
240,0000 * 60,000 = 14,400,000,000 person.hours of work to produce ONE DAY's films. That's almost 2.5 hours per person on the planet.
Hmmm, it could give full employment.
Alterntatively, each person could receive a webcam with their TV set and just stream their own lives onto the channels. When you're bored of your own life, go and live the person's next door.
I looked up some of the names on the list and found the following. I don't recommend going there if you have a weak heart and get annoyed at some people's marketing tactics. Now let me see if I get this straight: They are suggesting I buy ebooks on internet commerce and make money by getting other people to buy those ebooks using the software that they provide..... hmmmm, not a pyramid scheme?
You can see it at:
www.letstalkwinning.com/winalert_January23_2003. ht m
Just look at (an edited version of) what they suggest:
I would like to assure you that this program is fully legal and legitimate. It is not a chain letter scheme... By joining the program, you are actually purchasing numerous e-books on the subject of internet marketing, that you can use either to further promote this program or any other internet e-commerce business you may have. Additionally, you are gaining the rights to resell those e-books, which provide you with monthly profits on a continuous basis provided you actively promote the program using the tools included in the program.
A.) FAX BLASTING - I have attached the flyer that I used and you can do the same or make up your own but make sure you put your Info in place of mine on the flyer.
1.) Network Marketing News - John McAfee - 1-403-934-4339 2.) Capital Business Services - Terry Meager - 1-330-645-1575 3.) Nationwide Broadcast - Donna Lazio - 1-303-422-4730 or cell 1-303-517-8295 4.) D & N Enterprises - For all their info send a blank email to diamondmarketing@getresponse.com
B.) EMAIL BLASTING
1.) Gene Morton - See attachment at http://www.letstalkwinning.com/kiss-email.htm for details and Ad that I used. 2.) AJ Enterprises - Go to: www.bulkemailnet.com - Albert Garza - Business Hours: 10AM - 7PM EST M-F - 214-731-8001
C.) GUARANTEED WEBSITE TRAFFIC - Go to: http://www.guaranteed-traffic.net Here you can purchase different amounts of Guaranteed Hits to your website. If you decide to use this you will need a referral name and email so use this: Dave Stammen / stammenent@bright.net
Not just Moore's law, it also assumes that we can actually program these robots.
It takes at least 5 years for a human brain to be "programmed" to do most simple, coordinated tasks. To program a robot would take at least as long. First we have to develop "learning" algorithms" so that the robot can be taught to receive instruction. A neural net might work, but then it would have be trained on examples for, maybe, several years. Or we could write very long procedural/OO/functional (take your pick) programs to handle every possible contingency the robot might encounter.
My prediction is we will never simulate the human brain because
"what if it is more complicated that it is smart?"
(I cannot remember where I first heard this, but it is by a neuroscientist in England, I think)
Given that, what is it? two thirds of all large software projects are cancelled/fail to work/overun hugely, the idea of the government ever making money out of its IT, or of it getting "sub-par" software because a commercial software house decided not to bid for part of an open-source project, is risible.
I think there is "small" flaw in the article on "we all live in a simulation" that I have not seen a comment on. Where does all the heat generated in this simulation go?
At a rought estimate, I consume 2000 Calories a day (more when its in the form of pizza and beer), which is equal to 2000*4,186 = 8,372,000 Joules per day. this is approximately 97 J/sec, say 100 J/sec or 100 Watt.
My computer has a power supply that consumes about 500 Watt ( I have not taken the back off to check, but it is at least a few hundred watts). And it is only working at 1 GHz with 1 GByte RAM. Perhaps not all of this is used for cooling the cpu, but I notice that when I run a simulation on the machine it makes more noise and room heats up more than when it is idle.... Let's assume most of the 500 watt is needed for the cpu.
In the article it is stated that the simulation makers of the future will be able to do 10**16 - 10**17 operations per second. No matter how small your transistors they still have to get rid of heat (in fact it gets worse as they get smaller because the heat is concentrated in a smaller volume). Making the heroic assumption that heat generated per operation is constant, this would mean those 10**16 operations would generate 5.10**9 watts (10**16/10**9 . 500), about the same as a power station.
The human brain has 10**10 neurons, each one with between 10 - 10,000 connections (depending on the type of neuron). Assume 1000 for simplicity. This means 10**13 bits of information just to keep track of what state the connections of the neurons are in. As neutons are analog devices that change with time (and beer/coffee/drug consumption) let's say we need 1000 bits to keep track of the neuron's inner state (its protein production, cell membrane state, etc anything except the state of the signals reaching it). This means we need 10**16 bits just to simulate one brain.
So, if we are dissipating 5 GWatt per brain (compared to my more modest 0.1 KWatt) where does the energy go?
I think the article can also be analogised to the following:
You cannot possibly be where you are now, because all through your life there are many, many more places you could have been than those you did go, so the chances are overwhelmingly likely that you went somewhere else and are not where are you now.
I read this note on "how to crash IE in five lines" and thought I would email it to a friend. So I made a little text file with the five lines and, perhaps foolishly, gave it the name of crash.html. I then wrote the email (in Netscape) and all was fine. Then I wanted to delete the file. Oops
Simply selecting the file in the diretory and pulling up the right button menu crashed Windows Explorer and my laptop went to heaven. Just be sure I tried again this time debugging it with the Cancel option: still a dead laptop. I deleted it by deleting the whole diretory.
I couldn't find any comments on the bug affecting anything other than IE. But it does.
Slashdot Mirror
It's dropped by 4% this morning; now only 238e+06.
/. effect on stock prices: if we all want it, really, REALLY hard will Tinkerbell drive the price down?
The beginning of the end....? Probably not. Pity there is no
I just checked SCO's stock price and their p/e is 137: this means it would take 137 YEARS of their earnings to get back their stock market valuation.
Microsoft, for comparison, trades with a p/e of 31 or so.
Either a lot of people REALLY believe SCO is going to produce a lot of money in the future, or they believe someone is going to buy them out.
We're not going to see "thousands of streams of content" any time soon because someone has to make the stuff:
10,000 channels * 24 hours = 240,000 hours per day
Assume a 2 hour film takes 100 people six months, then
1 hour of film requires 60,000 person.hours to produce (assuming 10 hours/day * 20 days/month)
So, every day, there must be
240,0000 * 60,000 = 14,400,000,000 person.hours of work to produce ONE DAY's films. That's almost 2.5 hours per person on the planet.
Hmmm, it could give full employment.
Alterntatively, each person could receive a webcam with their TV set and just stream their own lives onto the channels. When you're bored of your own life, go and live the person's next door.
I looked up some of the names on the list and found the following. I don't recommend going there if you have a weak heart and get annoyed at some people's marketing tactics. Now let me see if I get this straight: They are suggesting I buy ebooks on internet commerce and make money by getting other people to buy those ebooks using the software that they provide..... hmmmm, not a pyramid scheme?
. ht m
You can see it at:
www.letstalkwinning.com/winalert_January23_2003
Just look at (an edited version of) what they suggest:
I would like to assure you that this program is fully legal and legitimate.
It is not a chain letter scheme...
By joining the program, you are actually purchasing numerous e-books on the subject
of internet marketing, that you can use either to further promote this program or
any other internet e-commerce business you may have. Additionally, you are gaining
the rights to resell those e-books, which provide you with monthly profits on a
continuous basis provided you actively promote the program using the tools included in the program.
A.) FAX BLASTING - I have attached the flyer that I used and you can do the same or make up your own
but make sure you put your Info in place of mine on the flyer.
1.) Network Marketing News - John McAfee - 1-403-934-4339
2.) Capital Business Services - Terry Meager - 1-330-645-1575
3.) Nationwide Broadcast - Donna Lazio - 1-303-422-4730 or cell 1-303-517-8295
4.) D & N Enterprises - For all their info send a blank email to diamondmarketing@getresponse.com
B.) EMAIL BLASTING
1.) Gene Morton - See attachment at http://www.letstalkwinning.com/kiss-email.htm for details and Ad that I used.
2.) AJ Enterprises - Go to: www.bulkemailnet.com - Albert Garza - Business Hours: 10AM - 7PM EST M-F - 214-731-8001
C.) GUARANTEED WEBSITE TRAFFIC - Go to: http://www.guaranteed-traffic.net
Here you can purchase different amounts of Guaranteed Hits to your website. If you decide to use this
you will need a referral name and email so use this: Dave Stammen / stammenent@bright.net
I got onto it at 1 pm (European time) but now ping says host unknown. Bye bye.
Don't use the fax number: it's a crime. Telephoning is ok until he tells you not to, and if you hang up early enough......
Not just Moore's law, it also assumes that we can actually program these robots.
It takes at least 5 years for a human brain to be "programmed" to do most simple, coordinated tasks. To program a robot would take at least as long. First we have to develop "learning" algorithms" so that the robot can be taught to receive instruction. A neural net might work, but then it
would have be trained on examples for, maybe, several years. Or we could write very long procedural/OO/functional (take your pick) programs to handle every possible contingency the robot might encounter.
My prediction is we will never simulate the human brain because
"what if it is more complicated that it is smart?"
(I cannot remember where I first heard this, but it is by a neuroscientist in England, I think)
Given that, what is it? two thirds of all large software projects are cancelled/fail to work/overun hugely, the idea of the government ever making money out of its IT, or of it getting "sub-par" software because a commercial software house decided not to bid for part of an open-source project, is risible.
I think there is "small" flaw in the article on "we all live in a simulation" that I have not seen a comment on. Where does all the heat generated in this simulation go?
At a rought estimate, I consume 2000 Calories a day (more when its in the form of pizza and beer), which is equal to 2000*4,186 = 8,372,000 Joules per day. this is approximately 97 J/sec, say 100 J/sec or 100 Watt.
My computer has a power supply that consumes about 500 Watt ( I have not taken the back off to check, but it is at least a few hundred watts). And it is only working at 1 GHz with 1 GByte RAM. Perhaps not all of this is used for cooling the cpu, but I notice that when I run a simulation on the machine it makes more noise and room heats up more than when it is idle.... Let's assume most of the 500 watt is needed for the cpu.
In the article it is stated that the simulation makers of the future will be able to do 10**16 - 10**17 operations per second. No matter how small your transistors they still have to get rid of heat (in fact it gets worse as they get smaller because the heat is concentrated in a smaller volume). Making the heroic assumption that heat generated per operation is constant, this would mean those 10**16 operations would generate 5.10**9 watts (10**16/10**9 . 500), about the same as a power station.
The human brain has 10**10 neurons, each one with between 10 - 10,000 connections (depending on the type of neuron). Assume 1000 for simplicity. This means 10**13 bits of information just to keep track of what state the connections of the neurons are in. As neutons are analog devices that change with time (and beer/coffee/drug consumption) let's say we need 1000 bits to keep track of the neuron's inner state (its protein production, cell membrane state, etc anything except the state of the signals reaching it). This means we need 10**16 bits just to simulate one brain.
So, if we are dissipating 5 GWatt per brain (compared to my more modest 0.1 KWatt) where does the energy go?
I think the article can also be analogised to the following:
You cannot possibly be where you are now, because all through your life there are many, many more places you could have been than those you did go, so the chances are overwhelmingly likely that you went somewhere else and are not where are you now.
Can I get a job at Oxford doing philosophy now?
I read this note on "how to crash IE in five lines" and thought I would email it to a friend. So I made a little text file with the five lines and, perhaps foolishly, gave it the name of crash.html. I then wrote the email (in Netscape) and all was fine. Then I wanted to delete the file. Oops
Simply selecting the file in the diretory and pulling up the right button menu crashed Windows Explorer and my laptop went to heaven. Just be sure I tried again this time debugging it with the Cancel option: still a dead laptop. I deleted it by deleting the whole diretory.
I couldn't find any comments on the bug affecting anything other than IE. But it does.