I think you are forgetting about Sharepoint and SQL Server as big wins of the last decade.
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As for extending the life of XP, no chance. XP already has done tremendous harm to Microsoft in creating a culture of long term no upgrading. They need to get their culture to be more like Apple's, more like it was pre XP, where people upgraded regularly. If China moves to Linux, so what?
Have you looked at the revenue figures for Microsoft? They are gaining "cash cows". Sharepoint is extending office, Lync is extending communicator, SQL Server has moved into data warehousing as well as increasing its share of applications. They earn about $20b a year.
1) Oracle's theory of the technical error is that congress does not want to allow copying that technically avoids the statute so the statue needs to be read broadly it was read narrowly by the original court.
2) Method of operation is copyrightable under a broad reading. They give examples of paraphrases of books being copyrightable. They have a good argument here.
3) Interoperability is not a concern of copyright law and thus the court can't argue that this plays a role. This is key because Google's defense argued that Sun had waived some of their protections.
I just think copyright law is too ambiguous and this needs to be kicked to congress.
I don't know that it is entirely clear that without clean room BIOS, IBM would have dominated. IBM was certainly a major player without Compaq but without Tandy moving towards what Compaq accomplished in copying the BIOS I don't know that the platform is nearly as successful. Intel, Western Digital and Microsoft have far less interest in advancing the x86 platform is IBM is getting all the money. Moreover IBM lost tremendously as PCs replaced mainframes. I suspect that the divisions within IBM that had pushed for slowing the rise of x86 servers and were hostile to thick client applications that acted as a front end for the mainframe, might have more easily won the battle.
In this alternative history I think Apple becomes the dominant office computer system. Because Apple doesn't allow for price drops Commodore could do better. Maybe IBM and DEC end up owning enterprise and the move of PCs into enterprise doesn't happen the platforms just evolve independently.
What's really lacking here is good quality black letter law about what copyright is supposed to do with respect to software. The courts are trying to fill a void left by our non-functional congress. The right way to be handling Microsoft's concerns is before a congressional subcommittee which can have a detailed hearings draws up legislation that goes to a committee....
Carry water on a plane. Have my toiletries bag on a plane. Being able to casually pass to and from Canada. Being able to casually travel to most places without a visa. Having an assurance that I'd have due process if arrested Having journalists have the right to interview government officials privately and report on issues of public interest Knowing that people involved in torture didn't work for our government openly
Users are part of the ecosystem they are what is driving the change. But the transition goes: OS, hardware, applications.
Microsoft's job is to produce an operating system that does not sell the competition--Android tablets, iPads, and Macs.
No. Microsoft's job is to sell enterprise server packages and office suites. Their strategy for home / small business is to create a defendable price point in the home / small business space so that Android can't move above so that Android doesn't do to them what they did to DEC, IBM, Unisys... when they crossed over from home / small business to enterprise. Right now they aren't trying to recapture share from Mac. Microsoft is much more worried about Android than OSX. Microsoft for 35 years has been beating competitors with higher prices and better products they know (or believe) heads up they can beat Apple.
The hardware OEMs and developers are simply not going to migrate over if nobody's going to buy it.
The hardware OEMs are migrating over. Touchscreen based laptop sales are exploding. We are likely to end up around 13% 2013 up from 6% 2012. Moreover there is more margin and more profit. It wouldn't shock me if by 4Q2014 the touchscreens are already more profitable than the traditional laptops and 4Q2015 they might outsell them.
Look at what's happened to the Microsoft tablets: nobody's buying, nobody's willing to make them 'cept for Microsoft...and it looks like even Microsoft's realizing they're not selling.
That's Windows RT not Windows 8. And Windows Phone which is essentially RT is also growing rapidly.
I don't know much about aviation development. Though I'd assume writing device drivers for the components that simple shouldn't be too hard presuming you can get the specs.
Windows 8 is a transitional operating system and those are messy. Metro by itself running Metro applications on appropriate hardware is no harder than any other tablet operating system. Windows 8 doesn't solve the problem for end users, it has created a platform for hardware OEMs to target and now developers. Once a good chunk of the ecosystem has moved over, then the problem of legacy desktop becomes much more manageable essentially it becomes a guest OS.
Huh? Most good printers attach to a LAN. Most crap printers can interface from any device that can put out data. Just do a search on iPhone printers and you'll see models from Canon, Polaroid, Epson... There is no reason that market can't expand fast.
People have done that kind of development for decades. You just run a virtual environment on your development machine to run the application and then do later testing on production hardware. Think mobile developers for a good common example.
How long do you think that will be? 2020, 2025? What about if the GPUs are external? Driving 3 monitors is a lot of GPU but it isn't beyond the capabilities of even an advanced laptop today.
Sales have been declining steadily for 5 years, and moreover the rate of decline has increased to about -10% a year. We are moving less than 400m units a year, without the replacements of tablets and smartphones that number could have been closer to 1b. The adoption rate in the USA is stagnant in the upper 80% range. If we keep dropping at 10% a year for 35 years we are still talking 10m units a year which is larger than the market in the late 1980s... but at those numbers the heavy investment to keep advancing the platforms won't be justified. It will be a niche technology market.
My point is they are both more expensive (relatively) and more profitable. And you are exactly correct they are not dropping quite as fast in terms of units but still dropping.
Windows 8 / Metro GUI is terrible on keyboard and mouse. It should never have been offered on a non-touch screen system. I won't argue that the interface works well on old fashioned systems. But if you look at laptops the percentage of touch screens is skyrocketing.
As for Windowing and the connections between windows, yes they do have problems with it. Because of the sophistication of OLE and web services the boundaries between device, windows, application and complex to understand and aren't well understood.
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I think you are forgetting about Sharepoint and SQL Server as big wins of the last decade.
___
As for extending the life of XP, no chance. XP already has done tremendous harm to Microsoft in creating a culture of long term no upgrading. They need to get their culture to be more like Apple's, more like it was pre XP, where people upgraded regularly. If China moves to Linux, so what?
Have you looked at the revenue figures for Microsoft? They are gaining "cash cows". Sharepoint is extending office, Lync is extending communicator, SQL Server has moved into data warehousing as well as increasing its share of applications. They earn about $20b a year.
Here is the appeal: http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Oracle.Appeal.Brief_.pdf
1) Oracle's theory of the technical error is that congress does not want to allow copying that technically avoids the statute so the statue needs to be read broadly it was read narrowly by the original court.
2) Method of operation is copyrightable under a broad reading. They give examples of paraphrases of books being copyrightable. They have a good argument here.
3) Interoperability is not a concern of copyright law and thus the court can't argue that this plays a role. This is key because Google's defense argued that Sun had waived some of their protections.
I just think copyright law is too ambiguous and this needs to be kicked to congress.
Closed systems wouldn't be so bad. The problem is legal ambiguity about what is or is not allowed.
Juries keep handing it to them. They are the ones who keep finding for the prosecution so often in infringement cases.
I don't know that it is entirely clear that without clean room BIOS, IBM would have dominated. IBM was certainly a major player without Compaq but without Tandy moving towards what Compaq accomplished in copying the BIOS I don't know that the platform is nearly as successful. Intel, Western Digital and Microsoft have far less interest in advancing the x86 platform is IBM is getting all the money. Moreover IBM lost tremendously as PCs replaced mainframes. I suspect that the divisions within IBM that had pushed for slowing the rise of x86 servers and were hostile to thick client applications that acted as a front end for the mainframe, might have more easily won the battle.
In this alternative history I think Apple becomes the dominant office computer system. Because Apple doesn't allow for price drops Commodore could do better. Maybe IBM and DEC end up owning enterprise and the move of PCs into enterprise doesn't happen the platforms just evolve independently.
What's really lacking here is good quality black letter law about what copyright is supposed to do with respect to software. The courts are trying to fill a void left by our non-functional congress. The right way to be handling Microsoft's concerns is before a congressional subcommittee which can have a detailed hearings draws up legislation that goes to a committee....
Carry water on a plane.
Have my toiletries bag on a plane.
Being able to casually pass to and from Canada.
Being able to casually travel to most places without a visa.
Having an assurance that I'd have due process if arrested
Having journalists have the right to interview government officials privately and report on issues of public interest
Knowing that people involved in torture didn't work for our government openly
On press freedom there are 31 countries more free: http://en.rsf.org/press-freedom-index-2013,1054.html
Users are part of the ecosystem they are what is driving the change. But the transition goes: OS, hardware, applications.
No. Microsoft's job is to sell enterprise server packages and office suites. Their strategy for home / small business is to create a defendable price point in the home / small business space so that Android can't move above so that Android doesn't do to them what they did to DEC, IBM, Unisys... when they crossed over from home / small business to enterprise. Right now they aren't trying to recapture share from Mac. Microsoft is much more worried about Android than OSX. Microsoft for 35 years has been beating competitors with higher prices and better products they know (or believe) heads up they can beat Apple.
The hardware OEMs are migrating over. Touchscreen based laptop sales are exploding. We are likely to end up around 13% 2013 up from 6% 2012. Moreover there is more margin and more profit. It wouldn't shock me if by 4Q2014 the touchscreens are already more profitable than the traditional laptops and 4Q2015 they might outsell them.
That's Windows RT not Windows 8. And Windows Phone which is essentially RT is also growing rapidly.
Ouch. Well I don't see VMs making that worse or better. :)
I don't know much about aviation development. Though I'd assume writing device drivers for the components that simple shouldn't be too hard presuming you can get the specs.
Windows 8 is a transitional operating system and those are messy. Metro by itself running Metro applications on appropriate hardware is no harder than any other tablet operating system. Windows 8 doesn't solve the problem for end users, it has created a platform for hardware OEMs to target and now developers. Once a good chunk of the ecosystem has moved over, then the problem of legacy desktop becomes much more manageable essentially it becomes a guest OS.
You are describing the ideal use case for X-Windows. And yes that's worked well for decades.
The decline started years before Windows 8. Windows 8 is a consequence not a cause of the decline.
Huh? Most good printers attach to a LAN. Most crap printers can interface from any device that can put out data. Just do a search on iPhone printers and you'll see models from Canon, Polaroid, Epson... There is no reason that market can't expand fast.
People have done that kind of development for decades. You just run a virtual environment on your development machine to run the application and then do later testing on production hardware. Think mobile developers for a good common example.
Around 2008. Heck you can easily run more. My rMBP supports that out of the box 2 thunderbolts and 1 HDMI and of course it's own monitor.
The rate of US penetration seems to have stabilized and possibly gone down slightly the last 18 mo. At this point it is meaning fewer PCs.
How long do you think that will be? 2020, 2025? What about if the GPUs are external? Driving 3 monitors is a lot of GPU but it isn't beyond the capabilities of even an advanced laptop today.
Sales have been declining steadily for 5 years, and moreover the rate of decline has increased to about -10% a year. We are moving less than 400m units a year, without the replacements of tablets and smartphones that number could have been closer to 1b. The adoption rate in the USA is stagnant in the upper 80% range. If we keep dropping at 10% a year for 35 years we are still talking 10m units a year which is larger than the market in the late 1980s... but at those numbers the heavy investment to keep advancing the platforms won't be justified. It will be a niche technology market.
My point is they are both more expensive (relatively) and more profitable. And you are exactly correct they are not dropping quite as fast in terms of units but still dropping.
Sure. Very easy. Microsoft actively works with Apple to support their systems.
That's just not true. They don't grasp the paradigms. The data on literacy is clear cut. They weren't successfully adapting to 1990s style interfaces.
Windows 8 / Metro GUI is terrible on keyboard and mouse. It should never have been offered on a non-touch screen system. I won't argue that the interface works well on old fashioned systems. But if you look at laptops the percentage of touch screens is skyrocketing.
As for Windowing and the connections between windows, yes they do have problems with it. Because of the sophistication of OLE and web services the boundaries between device, windows, application and complex to understand and aren't well understood.