Not talking about just moons, I'm talking about having a HUGE moon. Luna is 3,476 km in diameter. Earth is only 12.8k km. The moon is roughly 27% of the diameter of the earth.
Mar's larger moon, phobos, isn't even spherical, and it's only 28 km at it's widest.
Around Jupiter, Ganymede is bigger at 5276, along with Callisto and Io. But that's only 3.7% of the diameter of Jupiter. Being out of the water zone doesn't help.
Saturn has Titan - 5k km, 4.2%
Given that there's nearly 200 moons in our solar system, and Luna is #5 while being around a planet that's about an order of magnitude smaller in diameter compared to the other planets, I'll state that I believe Luna to be a pretty unusual feature.
I'm not discounting it, like you said, we won't know until we can not only detect earth sized planets, but also detect beyond that - presense of liquid water on one end, radio signals at the other.
Of course, until we find independently evolved life, we're still operating on a single positive sample, and a lot of dead and non-verified samples. What I posted was only a theory, and not a highly researched or specific one either.
That would seem to make Fermi's paradox even more troubling. My bet is that abiogenesis is vanishingly improbable. It seems pretty reasonable to be fairly optimistic about every other term in Drake's equation.
We won't really know until we can detect earth mass planets, but from what I've been seeing, I believe that our planet is the equivalent of hitting the galactic jackpot.
Specifically, our huge moon. The impact that did that must of created a sort of 'second stirring', resulting in a climate different than that of Venus and Mars.
I have no problems believing that habitable planets are more than a thousand ly apart, much less habitable planets that develop sapient, tool using life forms. Right now, that's outside of our detection range. Even SETI has a range of only like 60ly, if I remember right.
These vans are attempts to design a system that can move on actual roads, with people still driving on them. Obviously, this is far more difficult than to design a constrained system.
"Staggering"? Hyperbole. In the first place rates vary culturally. Iceland has 3.8 fatalities/year per 100000 people, less than a quarter of the rate of the US at 12.3, which in turn is about a quarter of the rate of the worst country for fatal car accidents: Eritrea at 48.4. Even that highest rate is still only 0.0484%/year, and at the risk of sounding cavalier about human life, I wouldn't call that staggering.
You're looking at fatalities, he stated 'accidents'. Worldwide, 2004, 1.2M people killed in crashes. 2.2% of deaths. On a worldwide scale, I'd rate anything capable of breaking single digits in death rate as 'significant'. Still, there's a lot more to auto accidents. Most survive - 50M injured a year. In the USA alone, 46k/year dead, 2.4M injured, sixth leading preventable cause of death. Canada - 48% of severe injuries.
Some more stats pulled off the auto accident wiki: 57% due solely to driver factors 97% have driver error, intoxication, and 'other human factors' Global cost estimated at $518B, USA $230B
So we'd be looking at a decent AI being able to eliminate something like 50% of accidents right off the bat. Presumably, this would save around 600k lives a year and prevent 25M injuries, save the USA $115B.
That would be around $380 per person in the USA, per year. 254M cars, estimated life of a decade, if the system cost could be gotten down to $4k, it'd be totally worth it if it chopped the accident rate in half. Make the worst drivers get them, and you'd break even quicker yet.
That's not even figuring in the cost of a human life - which I'd place around $5M, which would mean $3T for the world, $230B for the USA, so I'd say that even $8k would be worth it.
I think you vastly underestimate the problem. Example scenario: a vehicle is traveling on a rural road in the winter around a tight, blind turn on a mountain road. Suddenly, another vehicle appears heading toward the first in the middle of the road. Does the AI in the first vehicle know it's winter and black ice may interfere with braking? Does the AI know that turning out of the other vehicle's path toward the mountainside may result in the vehicle flipping? Does the AI know that if it turns away from the mountain to avoid the other vehicle that it could cause it to plummet to its doom?
Hmm... I think you underestimate how much of a difference the reaction speed of a computer can make, and overestimate the amount of figuring your average driver does.
Presumably the car would 'know' it's icy out, just like cars today detect such things for the purposes of traction control systems. Drop knowledge would be doable, but I think we're going to need to improve the accuracy of our maps around 10X for it to really work.
Personally, I think that my question becomes one of 'what do you do when somebody successfully designs an AI driven vehicle that is statistically safer than a human driver and cheap enough to be affordable?'
I'm not saying that it'll be perfect. But it'll never get tired, drunk, or distracted. It may not be able to handle all situations, but those it can it handles far better than humans.
How do you settle liability in such cases? Would you still say it's the 'drivers' fault? The owners*? The car company or the AI maker?
It might be best, assuming high initial cost and like I said, liability concerns, to have them in taxies and long distance trucks first. That way you have a company to absorb the liability while saving money on drivers(assuming you can get rid of them) and rack up enough hours to justify the system relatively quickly.
*While the insurance company cuts him a deal on his rate for having the system.
You should see the place I'm in now. 1 Bedroom, postage stamp living room and kitchenette.
I can see 7 aps from where I'm at.
There's a reason I only said 'fair bit of room' - the 20 non-overlapping channels in the 5 Ghz range is indeed a lot more than the 3 in the 2.4 range, but still can be exceeded with some work.
Plus, 5 Ghz doesn't travel quite as far or penetrate walls as well, so that's a bonus in a crowded area. Actually get people to do some power management, even better.
Finally, if you're living in that small of an apartment area, having the DVR next to the TV shouldn't be that big of a deal, and/or wiring distances should be short enough to keep it practical.
There's 20 non-overlapping channels in the 5 ghz range in the USA, so even if it's using like 5 of them there's still more left than what's available on the 2.4ghz side.
I'm the same way. I couldn't care less about professional sports. I won't watch a game unless somebody I know(as in personally) is playing in it. Even then it's easy to get bored. I'd much rather be playing.
If MMOs are anything to go by a lot of people only enjoy it that 10% of the time it's actually fun (big raids, PVP etc.)
This is why I keep quiting any MMOs I try. Once I get past the newbie stages I start getting irked at the repetition. For example, I quit WoW at level 30. It's just not my thing.
Thing is, I recognize that 'my thing' isn't everybody's thing. Heck, I'm pretty far off the bellcurve for what I enjoy.
Casual gaming has it's niche, and it's a rather large one. Consider the popularity of games like tetris, bejeweled, etc...
Me, I'd like a MMO that's a bit like GURPS*, set in a sort of magicpunk universe - My idea was to start with a single city. It'd be a fusion of Heroes(2), Sims(3), Eve, and WoW. Create a mission board system and a stock market, auction house, Market, etc... Have the NPC market take a hefty fee, but let PCs set up their own market, even let other players sell items using it.
The idea is that if you get bored of 'missioning', you'd be able to take the same character, keep your skills, and experiment with the manufacturing end of things. Sure, it'd take you a while, but with already improved attributes and some skills, you'd be able to set yourself up more quickly.
*No actual level system, you earn points to learn skills and improve attributes instead. 2 Haven't actually played this, I've been turned off MMOs so much. 3 Let the PC hire NPCs and manage them. Later on, perhaps even create them. Oh, and customize buildings.
I'd say it's more like going into a public bathroom and getting a bill when you leave.
Without a paywall, without something to record that you read and understand their conditions(that you have to pay), they can't charge for serving a webpage.
Last time I looked, the cheapest HD was under $20 for 80GB. The cheapest flash drives were like $20 for 8GB.
Unfortunately, 8GB is almost low enough to get into trouble with just a windows install today. I'd say that 40GB would indeed be the least I'd consider.
I like the idea of splitting stuff up and putting things like the OS and applications on the flash, media on a HD, but in the name of 'speed' I've come to be aware of the time cost of managing a system with a relatively small SSD(64GB) and a big HD(2TB), even with a script to move applications off the SSD to the HD and create a symlink so it all still works.
Thus I think a hybrid solution is better just from the management standpoint.
Basically, I don't see SSDs taking over from HDs until they're actually cheaper for a unit of 'sufficient size'. A couple years ago I might of said that 20GB might be enough, but now I'm thinking 30-40GB.
Sounds like the next step would be to round up like 20 runners - 10 who play baseball, 10 that don't, and either get two infields - one marked traditionally, one marked with the 'optimized' path, or just have one with both markings - though I'd want them to be coverable in that case, to avoid 'mental hesitation'.
The reason for getting baseball and non-baseball playing runners is that the baseball players are likely to know how to run a diamond the best, while the non-players can provide a more 'even' sample.
Then do some test runs.
In the end, probably realize the time saved isn't enough to pick up an extra base, on average, and gets more players caught 'out' due to not stopping when they should have.
I know my current one is, but then I have a fancy dual-radio gigabit version. Only 1 is advertised to be compatible, showing that it's not enough of a selling feature to list.
I know my 802.11N router at home is IPv6 compatible, but then, it's also a dual radio gigabit port beast.
Honestly enough, I figure that the USA/Europe will be one of the last ones to switch over - we're more mature; our growth rate is slower than China and other developing countries, and our investment is still proportionally larger.
Still, last time IPv6 came around I double checked, and my computers/router have IPv6 addresses. Hard to tell if they're getting used, but that's life.
500 nuclear warheads, while devastating, would not destroy the USA, much less our allies.
In which case the rational act, as I believe, would be to nuke Russia back. It might seem strange, but it's been the basis of our peace for the last 60+ years.
It's scary, yes. But a single nuke has nothing on the death toll another conventional WW would cause.
Even the number of regional conflicts is going down going into the 21st century.
Sure, you have Iraq and Afghanistan, but Israel isn't at war, NK and SK aren't fighting, We're not in Vietnam, Iran and India aren't fighting, Iraq isn't fighting with Iran, the Soviets aren't in Afghanistan, etc...
On the other hand, what else is there for a technically inclined youth? Electrician?
A good electrician has the advantages that most of his work can't be outsourced, he's always needed, and perhaps due to our 'COLLEGE COLLEGE COLLEGE' cry, a good electrician can make comperable wages to many with college degrees, and that's only working a 40 hour week, no overtime. Add in some and the effective pay goes way up.
Then add in that an electrician gets a good amount of exercise and movement just doing his job and he might even be healthier than a college degreed desk jockey, and that's without having to pay for a gym membership and spend personal time working out.
There's issues with illegal labor, but for a while my brother was making more money fixing the work of electrical workers with questionable immigration status than running original wiring.
BTW, if you buy a house in Florida I recommend having the wiring checked *CAREFULLY*. He's found things like 20 amp circuits run with 14 gauge wire - where it's 12 leaving the breaker box, 14 once it hits the first junction, crossed hot/neutrals, unhooked grounding wires, etc... A lot of the times he was called in AFTER the wiring melted or started a fire, and that gets expensive.
When I read the comment I thought something along the lines of 'perhaps a great man isn't one who's never wrong; but one who's willing to admit his mistakes and move on'. I'm probably stealing/paraphrasing a quote from somebody, but have no clue as to who.
Bill Gates certainly wasn't 100% on predicting the future; but apparently he was willing to adapt when the world didn't follow his vision.
Eating fatty meats is contrary to their beliefs about what a weight loss program should contain so they simply refused to accept it.
At least in the Military pretty much EVERYBODY is aware of low-carb diets, especially Atkins.
What I hate is the amount of No Fat/Sugar products out there. I have nothing against fat or sugar. I like fats and sugars. What I want is LESS of them, or at least more bulk in proportion. I want reduced calorie stuff that tastes 90% as good as the 'real deal' more than 'no calorie' stuff that's 50% as tasty.
I'd argue for just having a couple bland items on the table for the wussies/people with stomach conditions, give us GOOD tasting food.
On the other hand, this makes me wonder if crowded noisy lunch halls encourage bad eating choices - going for even sweeter/saltier food items due to this effect?
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Not talking about just moons, I'm talking about having a HUGE moon. Luna is 3,476 km in diameter. Earth is only 12.8k km. The moon is roughly 27% of the diameter of the earth.
Mar's larger moon, phobos, isn't even spherical, and it's only 28 km at it's widest.
Around Jupiter, Ganymede is bigger at 5276, along with Callisto and Io. But that's only 3.7% of the diameter of Jupiter. Being out of the water zone doesn't help.
Saturn has Titan - 5k km, 4.2%
Given that there's nearly 200 moons in our solar system, and Luna is #5 while being around a planet that's about an order of magnitude smaller in diameter compared to the other planets, I'll state that I believe Luna to be a pretty unusual feature.
I'm not discounting it, like you said, we won't know until we can not only detect earth sized planets, but also detect beyond that - presense of liquid water on one end, radio signals at the other.
Of course, until we find independently evolved life, we're still operating on a single positive sample, and a lot of dead and non-verified samples. What I posted was only a theory, and not a highly researched or specific one either.
That would seem to make Fermi's paradox even more troubling. My bet is that abiogenesis is vanishingly improbable. It seems pretty reasonable to be fairly optimistic about every other term in Drake's equation.
We won't really know until we can detect earth mass planets, but from what I've been seeing, I believe that our planet is the equivalent of hitting the galactic jackpot.
Specifically, our huge moon. The impact that did that must of created a sort of 'second stirring', resulting in a climate different than that of Venus and Mars.
I have no problems believing that habitable planets are more than a thousand ly apart, much less habitable planets that develop sapient, tool using life forms. Right now, that's outside of our detection range. Even SETI has a range of only like 60ly, if I remember right.
Why is there no call for an automated rail network?
There actually is - Personal Rapid Transit
These vans are attempts to design a system that can move on actual roads, with people still driving on them. Obviously, this is far more difficult than to design a constrained system.
"Staggering"? Hyperbole. In the first place rates vary culturally. Iceland has 3.8 fatalities/year per 100000 people, less than a quarter of the rate of the US at 12.3, which in turn is about a quarter of the rate of the worst country for fatal car accidents: Eritrea at 48.4. Even that highest rate is still only 0.0484%/year, and at the risk of sounding cavalier about human life, I wouldn't call that staggering.
You're looking at fatalities, he stated 'accidents'.
Worldwide, 2004, 1.2M people killed in crashes. 2.2% of deaths. On a worldwide scale, I'd rate anything capable of breaking single digits in death rate as 'significant'. Still, there's a lot more to auto accidents. Most survive - 50M injured a year. In the USA alone, 46k/year dead, 2.4M injured, sixth leading preventable cause of death. Canada - 48% of severe injuries.
Some more stats pulled off the auto accident wiki:
57% due solely to driver factors
97% have driver error, intoxication, and 'other human factors'
Global cost estimated at $518B, USA $230B
So we'd be looking at a decent AI being able to eliminate something like 50% of accidents right off the bat. Presumably, this would save around 600k lives a year and prevent 25M injuries, save the USA $115B.
That would be around $380 per person in the USA, per year. 254M cars, estimated life of a decade, if the system cost could be gotten down to $4k, it'd be totally worth it if it chopped the accident rate in half. Make the worst drivers get them, and you'd break even quicker yet.
That's not even figuring in the cost of a human life - which I'd place around $5M, which would mean $3T for the world, $230B for the USA, so I'd say that even $8k would be worth it.
I think you vastly underestimate the problem. Example scenario: a vehicle is traveling on a rural road in the winter around a tight, blind turn on a mountain road. Suddenly, another vehicle appears heading toward the first in the middle of the road. Does the AI in the first vehicle know it's winter and black ice may interfere with braking? Does the AI know that turning out of the other vehicle's path toward the mountainside may result in the vehicle flipping? Does the AI know that if it turns away from the mountain to avoid the other vehicle that it could cause it to plummet to its doom?
Hmm... I think you underestimate how much of a difference the reaction speed of a computer can make, and overestimate the amount of figuring your average driver does.
Presumably the car would 'know' it's icy out, just like cars today detect such things for the purposes of traction control systems. Drop knowledge would be doable, but I think we're going to need to improve the accuracy of our maps around 10X for it to really work.
Personally, I think that my question becomes one of 'what do you do when somebody successfully designs an AI driven vehicle that is statistically safer than a human driver and cheap enough to be affordable?'
I'm not saying that it'll be perfect. But it'll never get tired, drunk, or distracted. It may not be able to handle all situations, but those it can it handles far better than humans.
How do you settle liability in such cases? Would you still say it's the 'drivers' fault? The owners*? The car company or the AI maker?
It might be best, assuming high initial cost and like I said, liability concerns, to have them in taxies and long distance trucks first. That way you have a company to absorb the liability while saving money on drivers(assuming you can get rid of them) and rack up enough hours to justify the system relatively quickly.
*While the insurance company cuts him a deal on his rate for having the system.
You clearly don't live in an apartment...
You should see the place I'm in now. 1 Bedroom, postage stamp living room and kitchenette.
I can see 7 aps from where I'm at.
There's a reason I only said 'fair bit of room' - the 20 non-overlapping channels in the 5 Ghz range is indeed a lot more than the 3 in the 2.4 range, but still can be exceeded with some work.
Plus, 5 Ghz doesn't travel quite as far or penetrate walls as well, so that's a bonus in a crowded area. Actually get people to do some power management, even better.
Finally, if you're living in that small of an apartment area, having the DVR next to the TV shouldn't be that big of a deal, and/or wiring distances should be short enough to keep it practical.
There's 20 non-overlapping channels in the 5 ghz range in the USA, so even if it's using like 5 of them there's still more left than what's available on the 2.4ghz side.
I'm the same way. I couldn't care less about professional sports. I won't watch a game unless somebody I know(as in personally) is playing in it. Even then it's easy to get bored. I'd much rather be playing.
If MMOs are anything to go by a lot of people only enjoy it that 10% of the time it's actually fun (big raids, PVP etc.)
This is why I keep quiting any MMOs I try. Once I get past the newbie stages I start getting irked at the repetition. For example, I quit WoW at level 30. It's just not my thing.
Thing is, I recognize that 'my thing' isn't everybody's thing. Heck, I'm pretty far off the bellcurve for what I enjoy.
Casual gaming has it's niche, and it's a rather large one. Consider the popularity of games like tetris, bejeweled, etc...
Me, I'd like a MMO that's a bit like GURPS*, set in a sort of magicpunk universe - My idea was to start with a single city. It'd be a fusion of Heroes(2), Sims(3), Eve, and WoW. Create a mission board system and a stock market, auction house, Market, etc... Have the NPC market take a hefty fee, but let PCs set up their own market, even let other players sell items using it.
The idea is that if you get bored of 'missioning', you'd be able to take the same character, keep your skills, and experiment with the manufacturing end of things. Sure, it'd take you a while, but with already improved attributes and some skills, you'd be able to set yourself up more quickly.
*No actual level system, you earn points to learn skills and improve attributes instead.
2 Haven't actually played this, I've been turned off MMOs so much.
3 Let the PC hire NPCs and manage them. Later on, perhaps even create them. Oh, and customize buildings.
Other guys (and girls) I know spend a ton of time actually playing the kids game the guy in your example is crying over.
One could say that they're at least getting exercise.
That's not everywhere though. I was stationed at Spangdahlem for two years and went touring.
I will admit that I was a tad shocked the first time I encountered an attendant expecting a tip.
Maybe it's regional? I know that there are bathrooms in places like Boston and NYC that work on the same principle.
As for the plate, well, it's optional, lawyers don't get involved if you're a cheap grinch.
I'd say it's more like going into a public bathroom and getting a bill when you leave.
Without a paywall, without something to record that you read and understand their conditions(that you have to pay), they can't charge for serving a webpage.
Last time I looked, the cheapest HD was under $20 for 80GB. The cheapest flash drives were like $20 for 8GB.
Unfortunately, 8GB is almost low enough to get into trouble with just a windows install today. I'd say that 40GB would indeed be the least I'd consider.
I like the idea of splitting stuff up and putting things like the OS and applications on the flash, media on a HD, but in the name of 'speed' I've come to be aware of the time cost of managing a system with a relatively small SSD(64GB) and a big HD(2TB), even with a script to move applications off the SSD to the HD and create a symlink so it all still works.
Thus I think a hybrid solution is better just from the management standpoint.
Basically, I don't see SSDs taking over from HDs until they're actually cheaper for a unit of 'sufficient size'. A couple years ago I might of said that 20GB might be enough, but now I'm thinking 30-40GB.
Sounds like the next step would be to round up like 20 runners - 10 who play baseball, 10 that don't, and either get two infields - one marked traditionally, one marked with the 'optimized' path, or just have one with both markings - though I'd want them to be coverable in that case, to avoid 'mental hesitation'.
The reason for getting baseball and non-baseball playing runners is that the baseball players are likely to know how to run a diamond the best, while the non-players can provide a more 'even' sample.
Then do some test runs.
In the end, probably realize the time saved isn't enough to pick up an extra base, on average, and gets more players caught 'out' due to not stopping when they should have.
I know my current one is, but then I have a fancy dual-radio gigabit version. Only 1 is advertised to be compatible, showing that it's not enough of a selling feature to list.
I know my 802.11N router at home is IPv6 compatible, but then, it's also a dual radio gigabit port beast.
Honestly enough, I figure that the USA/Europe will be one of the last ones to switch over - we're more mature; our growth rate is slower than China and other developing countries, and our investment is still proportionally larger.
Still, last time IPv6 came around I double checked, and my computers/router have IPv6 addresses. Hard to tell if they're getting used, but that's life.
500 nuclear warheads, while devastating, would not destroy the USA, much less our allies.
In which case the rational act, as I believe, would be to nuke Russia back. It might seem strange, but it's been the basis of our peace for the last 60+ years.
It's scary, yes. But a single nuke has nothing on the death toll another conventional WW would cause.
Even the number of regional conflicts is going down going into the 21st century.
Sure, you have Iraq and Afghanistan, but Israel isn't at war, NK and SK aren't fighting, We're not in Vietnam, Iran and India aren't fighting, Iraq isn't fighting with Iran, the Soviets aren't in Afghanistan, etc...
On the other hand, what else is there for a technically inclined youth? Electrician?
A good electrician has the advantages that most of his work can't be outsourced, he's always needed, and perhaps due to our 'COLLEGE COLLEGE COLLEGE' cry, a good electrician can make comperable wages to many with college degrees, and that's only working a 40 hour week, no overtime. Add in some and the effective pay goes way up.
Then add in that an electrician gets a good amount of exercise and movement just doing his job and he might even be healthier than a college degreed desk jockey, and that's without having to pay for a gym membership and spend personal time working out.
There's issues with illegal labor, but for a while my brother was making more money fixing the work of electrical workers with questionable immigration status than running original wiring.
BTW, if you buy a house in Florida I recommend having the wiring checked *CAREFULLY*. He's found things like 20 amp circuits run with 14 gauge wire - where it's 12 leaving the breaker box, 14 once it hits the first junction, crossed hot/neutrals, unhooked grounding wires, etc... A lot of the times he was called in AFTER the wiring melted or started a fire, and that gets expensive.
When I read the comment I thought something along the lines of 'perhaps a great man isn't one who's never wrong; but one who's willing to admit his mistakes and move on'. I'm probably stealing/paraphrasing a quote from somebody, but have no clue as to who.
Bill Gates certainly wasn't 100% on predicting the future; but apparently he was willing to adapt when the world didn't follow his vision.
24 units at 1k gallons each = 24k gallons, for 10k people that's 2 gallons per person, per day.
For yours it's 200k gallons for 50k people, which is 4 gallons per person, per day, or double the water ration.
Going by the same standard you'd be supplying 100k people on the standard system using the MIT kid's standard.
As for 'saline water', if it's like the systems I'm used it, it'll handle salt water and even sewage and spit out safe water, if nasty tasting.
Didn't expect this much of a response...
Perhaps part of the problem with 'buffet' and other wedding meal type stuff is that it tends to ONLY be seasoned with salt, fat, and sugar.
I tend to find most lunch meats bland and untasty, but obviously loaded with fat and salt.
Eating fatty meats is contrary to their beliefs about what a weight loss program should contain so they simply refused to accept it.
At least in the Military pretty much EVERYBODY is aware of low-carb diets, especially Atkins.
What I hate is the amount of No Fat/Sugar products out there. I have nothing against fat or sugar. I like fats and sugars. What I want is LESS of them, or at least more bulk in proportion. I want reduced calorie stuff that tastes 90% as good as the 'real deal' more than 'no calorie' stuff that's 50% as tasty.
I'd argue for just having a couple bland items on the table for the wussies/people with stomach conditions, give us GOOD tasting food.
On the other hand, this makes me wonder if crowded noisy lunch halls encourage bad eating choices - going for even sweeter/saltier food items due to this effect?
"Won't be long" - fairly true, though I think it'll be delayed until there's a certain amount of market penetration and therefore demand.
I specified 'right now' because 'right now' is what's holding back adoptors.