Granted that the K6's FPU wasn't that good, but the K7's (Athlon/Duron) is incredible, yet it still gets poor SPEC numbers because of lack of compiler optimization. This show's how Duron's FPU blows away PIII: http://www.tomshardware.com/cpu/00q2/000619/duron- 11.html Compaq apparently have a compiler that provides some minimal Athlon optimizations and confirms the above Athlon/Duron vs PIII FPU comparison. Bottom line is that you should use application benchmarks for comparisons, since a choice of compiler can completely reverse a true view of things in an artificial benchmark such as the SPECs.
Intel are fighting two battles at the moment, for performance and for low power. The performance battle is against AMD, and Intel's answer will be the Willamette which is intended to be introduced late this year, and will compete with AMD's Mustang also due out this year. The low power parts introduced today are to stave off competition from Transmeta, whose Crusoe processor will be featured in laptops at PC Expo next week. Intel is having a tough battle here too, since the 1W Celeron is impressive but that is it's idle power consumption, while the Crusoe only draws 1W while running full speed!!!
The weather has non-linear dynamics, and has been shown to be chaotic (have strange attractors).
It is therefore theoretically impossible to forcast the weather very far ahead, even with unlimited computer power, regardless of how accurate the models are.
The Spitfire is an Athlon core with 128K L2 on chip (Athlon has none on chip) in cheap socket7 packaging, and by all accounts predictably does outperform Athlon. I've also read what you said that AMD have Spitfires and don't want to launch them until they have Thunderbirds (again Athlon core, but with 256K L2 and same Athlon cartridge packaging) to take over the high end. Both statements about Spitfire and Thunderbird waiting may be true in that they're waiting to build up volume of both parts before launching. It's also unclear where Athlon will be when Spitfire and Thunderbord are out. If AMD keep producing Athlons then it could be: Spitfire - Athlon - Thunderbird low-high with Spoitfire kept to speeds below Athlon so as to not outshine it, or Althon may be discontinues altogther in favor of Thunderbird it's faster replacement. Incidently there will be two variants of Thunderbird, one with Aluminum interconnnect (same as all existing AMD and Intel chips) that will be manufactured in Austin, and another with AMD's new cpper interconnect manufcatured in Dresden, Germany. The copper version may well be at a higher clock speed than the other. The whole truth may be some combination such as that they have and are stockpiling copper Thunderbirds (I believe this is a fact), which they will release later, and also have Spitfires (made in Austin) which will initially released at lower clock speeds until aluminum Thunderbirds are ready to replace Athlon. Anyway, I think we're going to find out soon. AMD's annual shareholders meeting is on 4/27, and everyone is expecting an announcment of some kind, particularly as they just announced this Athlon sell-out (i.e. all production thru end of Q2 pre-sold). Incidently, I believe AMD stock is a great buy right now, despite the gains over the last year.
Re:The difference is 84% marketshare vs. 10%
on
Athlons Sold Out
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AMD vs Intel "sold out" is NOT the same thing at all. AMD is running it's fabs at full capacity, and as their annual report says, selling all their output was a concern. They've just done it already! (at least for K6-2 and plain Athlons). Intel, OTOH, are having capacity problems because they're still frantically trying to upgrade their fabs to be able to produce higher speed parts - AMD's rapid move up the speed ladder caught Intel with their pants down, and means that Intels fabs are stilling idle rather than cranking at ful capacity like AMDs. This is a BIG difference - particularly if you are a shareholder and care about quarterly profits.
Anyway, all this "sold out" news is crap. Read the announcement. They're sold out of K6-2 and Athlon. Guess why? Becuase they're about to be replaced by Spitfire and Thunderbord (both are "Athlon" with on-chip L2 cache). AMD have plenty of capacity for these, both out of Austin and Dresden. In fact, they've been stockpiling Dresden's output in Q1.
Finally, Intels 1GHz announcement WAS crap. Just because you can cherry pick a couple of 1GHz parts off your production line doesn't mean that your fab is geared up to produce them in volume. Intel's production problems in fact start at 700MHz+. Your comparison to 486 25..100MHz speed increases is irrelevant baecause this is all about current processes and fab capabilities - we're not living in the past.
FWIW the total cost of the Dresden fab when fully ramped up will be around $1.9B. It's currently doing 600 wafer starts per week, which can be pushed to 2000 without spending any more money on equipment. At full capacity sometime this year it'll be doing 5000 starts per week, which will give AMD capacity for 30-40% market share which realistically IS the most they are likely to take from Intel in the short term. Anyway, the "sold out" announcement only refers to K6-2 and Athlon. It does not refer to Thunderbird and Spitfire. Thunderbord is made both in AMDs Fab-25 in Austin (aluminum interconnect) and Fab-30 in Dresden (copper interconnect), and in fact they've been stockpiling production out of Dresden in Q1. Athlon production was not higher, because everything is going to plan and Athlon is about to be replaced by the faster Spitfire and Thunderbord which are the Athlon core with varous amounts on on-chip L2 cache. Spitfire and Thunderbird will kick the hell out of PIII (as well as Athlon).
Re:Athalons Rule, but no smp...yet
on
Athlons Sold Out
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The 1GHz is still expensive, but the 950MHz can be had for as low as $748, and the 900MHz for $612. Athlon 950MHz at Pricewatch Plus if you wait a few weeks (maybe less), AMD will announce the Spitfire and Thunderbird which are both considerably faster than the Athlon, and will push prices even further down.
Yep, that's right. I also read an ex-AMD fab employee on Yahoo! saying that they can ramp to 2000 per week with the existing equipment there before having to spend more to complete the ramp. The 5000 starts is intended to give AMD enough total capacity for 30-40% market share. Of couse as they shrink from.18 micron to.15, then.13 (about the limit of the equipment and process they're using), then they'll be getting more processors per wafer, and even higher capacity. The most interesting thing about the 600 starts/week they've been doing in Q1 though, is that they havn't sold any of the resulting (Thunderbird) processors yet - they've been deliberately stockpiling them. Given the Athlon "sold out" news, I'd say a Thunderbird (+Spitfire) announcement is definitely imminent!
AMD sold out of K6 and "Athlon". That does not include Spitfire and Thunderbird which are both Athlon core but with on-chip L2 (i.e. even faster!). AMD plenty of capacity for these - enough to take 30%+ market share by years end. Spitfire outperforms Athlon (as well as PIII and Celery) AND is cheaper, so consumers will be very happy with it!
Athlon is being phased out in favor of Spitfire and Thunderbird. "Sold out" annoucement was for K6 and Athlon only, not Spitfire and Thunderbird (Athlon with on-chip L2) which are produced in both Austin and Dresden. Dresden has been churning out 600 wafer starts per week of copper (i.e FAST!) Thunderbird all Q1.. but AMD hasn't sold any yet becuase they want to have volume to co-launch with Spitfire. Announcement may be on 4/27 at the annual meeting.
Who said anything about a capacity problem? They've pre-sold all of their K6 and Fab-25 Athlon production, prior to launching Spitfire and Thunderbird. The sold out is K6 and Athlon only. They make Aluminum interconnect Spitfires and Thunderbirds in Austin, as well as copper Thunderbirds in Fab-30 Dresden, which have nothing to do with this announcement. In fact they've been sandbagging Thunderbirds from Fab-30 in Q1 (600 wafer starts per week). Dresden can ramp to 2000 wafer starts with the existing equipment, and when fully ramped will do 5000 starts. Capacity will further increase as process is reduced from.18 micron to.13 and maybe even below (Dresden limit). AMD has capacity to take 30-40% market share from Intel, and expect to do exactly that by years end. AMD stock has made 400% for those of us who realized a year ago that this is NOT your old AMD. They are firing on all cylinders now, and are just killing Intel. Execution and planning is perfect. Expect Spitfire/Thunderbird announcement at the Apr 27th annual meeting.
Re:Athalons Rule, but no smp...yet
on
Athlons Sold Out
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· Score: 1
AMD SMP chipsets/boards will be out later this year, and should yet again kick the hell out of Intel due to the EV6 derived bus in addition to faster processors. But why do you want SMP anyway? Single processor is much cheaper... What speed/cost of Intel SMP are you going to have to use to beat 1GHz Athlon (which is what Alan Cox uses, BTW!)? You can get a 1GHz system from Gateway for $2600!
I doubt the stock will drop on the news (if it does, buy it!), since this is good news for AMD - they've sold all their (what will be) "low end" stuff, and will now launch the Spitfires and Thunderbirds made in their new Dresden fab. You should see whay their saying on the Yahoo! stock board for AMD - they're going nuts on this news, since it guarantees them another blow-out sales quarter.
As for the stock being low, it is low in terms of P/E (it's a great value to buy right now), but bear in mind that it went up 400% over the last year! AMD has been competely kicking Intel's ass both in terms of clock speeds, performance and stock price. Athlon is just as fast as PIII (not to mention that AMD are actually shipping them in volume at 1GHz vs Intel's vapourware announcement), but Spitfire, Thunderbord, Mustang and Sledgehammer will all CRUSH the corresponding Intel processors!
I bet Alan Cox would like a Thunderbird!
on
Athlons Sold Out
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· Score: 1
Since he's currently using one of those outdated 1GHz Athlons! http://www1.amd.com/products/cpg/ath lon/quotes "I use an AMD Athlon processor- based system as one of my primary development systems. A 1 GHz AMD Athlon based system running Red Hat Linux offers a powerful platform for general purpose software development, games and multimedia. " --Alan Cox, Linux kernel developer, Red Hat
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Duron vs PIII FPU
Granted that the K6's FPU wasn't that good, but the K7's (Athlon/Duron) is incredible, yet it still gets poor SPEC numbers because of lack of compiler optimization. This show's how Duron's FPU blows away PIII: http://www.tomshardware.com/cpu/00q2/000619/duron- 11.html Compaq apparently have a compiler that provides some minimal Athlon optimizations and confirms the above Athlon/Duron vs PIII FPU comparison. Bottom line is that you should use application benchmarks for comparisons, since a choice of compiler can completely reverse a true view of things in an artificial benchmark such as the SPECs.
Intel are fighting two battles at the moment, for performance and for low power. The performance battle is against AMD, and Intel's answer will be the Willamette which is intended to be introduced late this year, and will compete with AMD's Mustang also due out this year. The low power parts introduced today are to stave off competition from Transmeta, whose Crusoe processor will be featured in laptops at PC Expo next week. Intel is having a tough battle here too, since the 1W Celeron is impressive but that is it's idle power consumption, while the Crusoe only draws 1W while running full speed!!!
What is it, and why is it so great?
The weather has non-linear dynamics, and has been shown to be chaotic (have strange attractors). It is therefore theoretically impossible to forcast the weather very far ahead, even with unlimited computer power, regardless of how accurate the models are.
The Spitfire is an Athlon core with 128K L2 on chip (Athlon has none on chip) in cheap socket7 packaging, and by all accounts predictably does outperform Athlon. I've also read what you said that AMD have Spitfires and don't want to launch them until they have Thunderbirds (again Athlon core, but with 256K L2 and same Athlon cartridge packaging) to take over the high end. Both statements about Spitfire and Thunderbird waiting may be true in that they're waiting to build up volume of both parts before launching. It's also unclear where Athlon will be when Spitfire and Thunderbord are out. If AMD keep producing Athlons then it could be: Spitfire - Athlon - Thunderbird low-high with Spoitfire kept to speeds below Athlon so as to not outshine it, or Althon may be discontinues altogther in favor of Thunderbird it's faster replacement. Incidently there will be two variants of Thunderbird, one with Aluminum interconnnect (same as all existing AMD and Intel chips) that will be manufactured in Austin, and another with AMD's new cpper interconnect manufcatured in Dresden, Germany. The copper version may well be at a higher clock speed than the other. The whole truth may be some combination such as that they have and are stockpiling copper Thunderbirds (I believe this is a fact), which they will release later, and also have Spitfires (made in Austin) which will initially released at lower clock speeds until aluminum Thunderbirds are ready to replace Athlon. Anyway, I think we're going to find out soon. AMD's annual shareholders meeting is on 4/27, and everyone is expecting an announcment of some kind, particularly as they just announced this Athlon sell-out (i.e. all production thru end of Q2 pre-sold). Incidently, I believe AMD stock is a great buy right now, despite the gains over the last year.
AMD vs Intel "sold out" is NOT the same thing at all. AMD is running it's fabs at full capacity, and as their annual report says, selling all their output was a concern. They've just done it already! (at least for K6-2 and plain Athlons). Intel, OTOH, are having capacity problems because they're still frantically trying to upgrade their fabs to be able to produce higher speed parts - AMD's rapid move up the speed ladder caught Intel with their pants down, and means that Intels fabs are stilling idle rather than cranking at ful capacity like AMDs. This is a BIG difference - particularly if you are a shareholder and care about quarterly profits.
Anyway, all this "sold out" news is crap. Read the announcement. They're sold out of K6-2 and Athlon. Guess why? Becuase they're about to be replaced by Spitfire and Thunderbord (both are "Athlon" with on-chip L2 cache). AMD have plenty of capacity for these, both out of Austin and Dresden. In fact, they've been stockpiling Dresden's output in Q1.
Finally, Intels 1GHz announcement WAS crap. Just because you can cherry pick a couple of 1GHz parts off your production line doesn't mean that your fab is geared up to produce them in volume. Intel's production problems in fact start at 700MHz+. Your comparison to 486 25..100MHz speed increases is irrelevant baecause this is all about current processes and fab capabilities - we're not living in the past.
FWIW the total cost of the Dresden fab when fully ramped up will be around $1.9B. It's currently doing 600 wafer starts per week, which can be pushed to 2000 without spending any more money on equipment. At full capacity sometime this year it'll be doing 5000 starts per week, which will give AMD capacity for 30-40% market share which realistically IS the most they are likely to take from Intel in the short term. Anyway, the "sold out" announcement only refers to K6-2 and Athlon. It does not refer to Thunderbird and Spitfire. Thunderbord is made both in AMDs Fab-25 in Austin (aluminum interconnect) and Fab-30 in Dresden (copper interconnect), and in fact they've been stockpiling production out of Dresden in Q1. Athlon production was not higher, because everything is going to plan and Athlon is about to be replaced by the faster Spitfire and Thunderbord which are the Athlon core with varous amounts on on-chip L2 cache. Spitfire and Thunderbird will kick the hell out of PIII (as well as Athlon).
The 1GHz is still expensive, but the 950MHz can be had for as low as $748, and the 900MHz for $612. Athlon 950MHz at Pricewatch Plus if you wait a few weeks (maybe less), AMD will announce the Spitfire and Thunderbird which are both considerably faster than the Athlon, and will push prices even further down.
Yep, that's right. I also read an ex-AMD fab employee on Yahoo! saying that they can ramp to 2000 per week with the existing equipment there before having to spend more to complete the ramp. The 5000 starts is intended to give AMD enough total capacity for 30-40% market share. Of couse as they shrink from .18 micron to .15, then .13 (about the limit of the equipment and process they're using), then they'll be getting more processors per wafer, and even higher capacity. The most interesting thing about the 600 starts/week they've been doing in Q1 though, is that they havn't sold any of the resulting (Thunderbird) processors yet - they've been deliberately stockpiling them. Given the Athlon "sold out" news, I'd say a Thunderbird (+Spitfire) announcement is definitely imminent!
AMD sold out of K6 and "Athlon". That does not include Spitfire and Thunderbird which are both Athlon core but with on-chip L2 (i.e. even faster!). AMD plenty of capacity for these - enough to take 30%+ market share by years end. Spitfire outperforms Athlon (as well as PIII and Celery) AND is cheaper, so consumers will be very happy with it!
Athlon is being phased out in favor of Spitfire and Thunderbird. "Sold out" annoucement was for K6 and Athlon only, not Spitfire and Thunderbird (Athlon with on-chip L2) which are produced in both Austin and Dresden. Dresden has been churning out 600 wafer starts per week of copper (i.e FAST!) Thunderbird all Q1.. but AMD hasn't sold any yet becuase they want to have volume to co-launch with Spitfire. Announcement may be on 4/27 at the annual meeting.
Who said anything about a capacity problem? They've pre-sold all of their K6 and Fab-25 Athlon production, prior to launching Spitfire and Thunderbird. The sold out is K6 and Athlon only. They make Aluminum interconnect Spitfires and Thunderbirds in Austin, as well as copper Thunderbirds in Fab-30 Dresden, which have nothing to do with this announcement. In fact they've been sandbagging Thunderbirds from Fab-30 in Q1 (600 wafer starts per week). Dresden can ramp to 2000 wafer starts with the existing equipment, and when fully ramped will do 5000 starts. Capacity will further increase as process is reduced from .18 micron to .13 and maybe even below (Dresden limit). AMD has capacity to take 30-40% market share from Intel, and expect to do exactly that by years end. AMD stock has made 400% for those of us who realized a year ago that this is NOT your old AMD. They are firing on all cylinders now, and are just killing Intel. Execution and planning is perfect. Expect Spitfire/Thunderbird announcement at the Apr 27th annual meeting.
AMD SMP chipsets/boards will be out later this year, and should yet again kick the hell out of Intel due to the EV6 derived bus in addition to faster processors. But why do you want SMP anyway? Single processor is much cheaper... What speed/cost of Intel SMP are you going to have to use to beat 1GHz Athlon (which is what Alan Cox uses, BTW!)? You can get a 1GHz system from Gateway for $2600!
As for the stock being low, it is low in terms of P/E (it's a great value to buy right now), but bear in mind that it went up 400% over the last year! AMD has been competely kicking Intel's ass both in terms of clock speeds, performance and stock price. Athlon is just as fast as PIII (not to mention that AMD are actually shipping them in volume at 1GHz vs Intel's vapourware announcement), but Spitfire, Thunderbord, Mustang and Sledgehammer will all CRUSH the corresponding Intel processors!
AMD's time has come!
AMD stock chart
Since he's currently using one of those outdated 1GHz Athlons! http://www1.amd.com/products/cpg/ath lon/quotes "I use an AMD Athlon processor- based system as one of my primary development systems. A 1 GHz AMD Athlon based system running Red Hat Linux offers a powerful platform for general purpose software development, games and multimedia. " --Alan Cox, Linux kernel developer, Red Hat