You ignored the hardware cost curve. That phone might be zero margin today, but over its market lifetime (maybe three years) the hardware cost will fall more than 50%, providing a comfortable margin on average.
It will be sleek. It will be a smooth ride. It will take you anywhere you want to go where there is road. It will be attractive, progressive and revolutionary in the automotive industry. It will be purely electric, with an innovative way of handling power, and sport a battery with a ludicrous capacity. It will feature a thin and light frame that is somehow accident safe, smoothly transitioning engine that automatically adjusts for climate and road conditions, and a iteration of Siri through which users will be able to control the car. It won't have a steering wheel or pedals; the car will be designed to navigate without them.
Some people will haughtily suggest that this car is far superior to all other cars due to its simplicity. Others will love it because of the Apple logo and the sleek, glass design.
Older people will shake their heads and continue to drive their Oldsmobiles.
Some people will make fun of its price tag, which will be above $30k, while ignoring the fact that a lot of other cars cost that much. Others will point out that other cars that cost as much have better performance. Yet other people will say that it's not as good as a Ferrari or a Formula One Lotus, and therefore it sucks balls.
There will be many people who will say that their Google self-driving car is far superior because they can install a custom engine and dash computer. They won't be wrong, but there will be embarrassing moments where their blinkers don't work right, the range of the car will inexplicably plummet, and the FM radio "isn't supported yet". There will be more optional extras, but most of them will suck (Apple's won't really be any better, just nicer looking.)
There will be a community of people who retrofit their Apple cars with steering consoles. This will, of course, void the warranty. And somehow give the car viruses.
But the majority of people will wonder why the Apple car's hood doesn't open.
This battle is lost. No amount of litigation or hacking will change that.
Hmm, the battle would appear to be a lot more lost for those joined at the hip and face to the Microsoft ecosystem. From where I sit with my Linux desktop, the battle would appear to be far from lost.
I don't care whether or not people commit fashion crimes, I just point out that wearing a wrist watch these days tends to be one. About the same status as a bowtie. There is a time and place for that, but street, school or office is not it.
Yes, like the surface pro or Asus transformer, but in the case of the surface, it would be necessary to lose the microsoft OS, which will never happen so forget it.
Too bad this discussion will archive, because I would love to see you add another post a few years down the line when you buy a PC again. Tablets are fine for some things, but don't cut it for all purposes. A PC can do more things than any tablet.
The gaps between buying PCs are getting longer and longer for me. I am likely to get several tablets before the next PC. These days, instead of a desktop PC, I'm tend to stuff a server class machine into a big tower case and put the whole thing headless in a closet where the fans don't annoy me. Then I use it by ssh with a nice keyboard and screen plugged into a fanless media PC, with a tablet standing by for grab-and-go situations. But did I mention, I'm a tiny sliver of the market?
The time I buy my next desktop PC is basically never, I'm pretty sure I already bought my last one. By the time I buy my next PC-like thing, either a headless server class tower or fanless mini-PC, the PC market will have shrunk to a fraction of its size (1/4 to 1/3 of what it is today) and the tablet market will be at least twice the size it is today, dwarfing the classic PC market. You know it's true, the trends are already plainly visible.
That's kinda the point about tablets. To actually use them, you need more hardware.
Only the bluetooth keyboard is strictly necessary for serious work. The tablet plus keyboard still add up to much less weight and space than a laptop with typically several times the battery life, plus can you charge your laptop on a USB cable?
Another thing you need with a tablet is a stand, which often takes the form of a portfolio case. But it isn't hard to improvise when necessary.
The laptop already has that hardware. So you are effectively needing a laptop that can be minimized at times.
The opposite. I need a tablet that can be maximized at times.
By the way, have you ever used a laptop on a commuter train? If you fail to get a seat with a table (normal case) then it really sucks. A tablet is perfectly usable.
Eventually all computers for consumers and common business workers are going to be downsized to tablets or smaller, with accessory hardware available as needed. They'll still be 10 times more powerful than the newest Intel i7's are today, just as the current tablets are much more powerful than the first Pentium PCs. But that's a ways off in the future yet, just like George Jetson's flying car that folds into a briefcase. For now we need something with more space, or more power, or more screen, or more hardware than simple tables.
Tablets are already awesomely powerful and capable of pretty much all the computation I need on the road, short of a massive build or debugging session. I typically do those by ssh to a build farm, sometimes using the tablet.
In the real world I'll just use the right tool for the job.
In school, you carry your tools between your ears, you didn't go there to learn powerpointing. I hope.
Well, I could be wrong about you, but my child certainly don't go to school to learn powerpointing, and if I found that being taught instead of proper academics I'd move my child to a different school the next day.
BTW, my child's school standardized on Linux, both the back office and teaching side. Even the security system. There great education software out there, and school administration software for Linux. See, free is compelling for educators these days, and students get a great chance to learn high value skills like programming and network adminisration (pen testing is particularly popular...)
From where I sit, Linux looks like the right tool for education, so I agree with you. Use the right tool for the job, and bin that expensive, proprietary, virus-magnet Microsoft crap.
Oh lookie, my post attracted the attention of a M$ astroturder with mod points.
Life's too short for that. I did not enter that on a tablet, but I certainly have entered that much and more frequently enough in the past. I always use a bluetooth keyboard for that. My HTC Vision, unfortunately not made any more, has been good for a large amount of IRC chat, which works well on its flip out keyboard, the best that was ever made for a phone IMHO. But posting to slashdot is still a bit much, and even on IRC I tend to abbreviate more.
Devs are a tiny sliver of the computer market. That said, I am one, but I have a range of interests besides development, a number of which map nicely to the tablet. I have from time to time done miscellaneous development using the tablet for ssh (Connectbot, quite nice) but obviously it is not ideal for that. If you had to, you could make it work, and in truth, its vastly more capable than the early PCs I did develop on, but life is too short for that and everything is bloaty and complex now.
If they manage to get it to the point where they can use a mechanical action to recharge a usable computer with readable touchscreen display, complete with short range radio, then that gets it over the trinket hump... I would drop some spare change on that. I don't see it taking the world by storm.
Mechanical watches will always be a niche market and will never go away.
I wouldn't bet on that. Grandfather clocks went away. Typewriters went away. Neckties are in advanced stages of going away. I am sure somebody out there still has a grandfather clock, and there will be a few diehards with Rolexes, but the real limiting factor is, the legendary Oyster mainly makes you look like an asshole out to commit a fashion crime. Right up there with plaid suits. Sure, get an Armani plaid suit, it's still a plaid suit.
Self-winding Seiko. I wear it from time to time as jewelry. A digital watch is useless as jewelry, it's mainly good for achieving that fossilized look, just right for a PTA meeting.
I stopped wearing a watch about 20 years ago because there was always a clock wherever I was, either on my computer, laptop, cell phone, car dashboard, departure gate, whatever When phones got small enough and rugged enough to be always in the pocket, well, presto, return of the pocket watch. Strongly agree that watches won't be for telling time any more. They will be for... wait for it.... watching.
Slashdot Mirror
Microsoft got Windows Phone right.
That may be (or not) but Microsoft's brand has negative value. Nobody buys Microsoft except by force.
You ignored the hardware cost curve. That phone might be zero margin today, but over its market lifetime (maybe three years) the hardware cost will fall more than 50%, providing a comfortable margin on average.
It will be sleek. It will be a smooth ride. It will take you anywhere you want to go where there is road. It will be attractive, progressive and revolutionary in the automotive industry. It will be purely electric, with an innovative way of handling power, and sport a battery with a ludicrous capacity. It will feature a thin and light frame that is somehow accident safe, smoothly transitioning engine that automatically adjusts for climate and road conditions, and a iteration of Siri through which users will be able to control the car. It won't have a steering wheel or pedals; the car will be designed to navigate without them.
Some people will haughtily suggest that this car is far superior to all other cars due to its simplicity. Others will love it because of the Apple logo and the sleek, glass design.
Older people will shake their heads and continue to drive their Oldsmobiles.
Some people will make fun of its price tag, which will be above $30k, while ignoring the fact that a lot of other cars cost that much. Others will point out that other cars that cost as much have better performance. Yet other people will say that it's not as good as a Ferrari or a Formula One Lotus, and therefore it sucks balls.
There will be many people who will say that their Google self-driving car is far superior because they can install a custom engine and dash computer. They won't be wrong, but there will be embarrassing moments where their blinkers don't work right, the range of the car will inexplicably plummet, and the FM radio "isn't supported yet". There will be more optional extras, but most of them will suck (Apple's won't really be any better, just nicer looking.)
There will be a community of people who retrofit their Apple cars with steering consoles. This will, of course, void the warranty. And somehow give the car viruses.
But the majority of people will wonder why the Apple car's hood doesn't open.
If only I had mod points
After it autonomously shifts into reverse, turns hard right, and falls off a cliff...
"don't drive it like that"
You don't have any relatives, do you.
Oh gee, how wise and clever you are. Now I can feel safe drinking poison as long as it is, you know, natural.
This battle is lost. No amount of litigation or hacking will change that.
Hmm, the battle would appear to be a lot more lost for those joined at the hip and face to the Microsoft ecosystem. From where I sit with my Linux desktop, the battle would appear to be far from lost.
I think the correct technical term these days is "aging hipster"
I don't care whether or not people commit fashion crimes, I just point out that wearing a wrist watch these days tends to be one. About the same status as a bowtie. There is a time and place for that, but street, school or office is not it.
Maybe remind somebody of the new policy :)
Yes, like the surface pro or Asus transformer, but in the case of the surface, it would be necessary to lose the microsoft OS, which will never happen so forget it.
Agree, some of my clocks aren't automatically synchronized, but my phone is and I do make a habit of correcting other clocks as necessary.
I take it you haven't heard of NTP
Do you know that your phone synchonizes to an atomic clock over the cell network multiple times a day?
Too bad this discussion will archive, because I would love to see you add another post a few years down the line when you buy a PC again. Tablets are fine for some things, but don't cut it for all purposes. A PC can do more things than any tablet.
The gaps between buying PCs are getting longer and longer for me. I am likely to get several tablets before the next PC. These days, instead of a desktop PC, I'm tend to stuff a server class machine into a big tower case and put the whole thing headless in a closet where the fans don't annoy me. Then I use it by ssh with a nice keyboard and screen plugged into a fanless media PC, with a tablet standing by for grab-and-go situations. But did I mention, I'm a tiny sliver of the market?
The time I buy my next desktop PC is basically never, I'm pretty sure I already bought my last one. By the time I buy my next PC-like thing, either a headless server class tower or fanless mini-PC, the PC market will have shrunk to a fraction of its size (1/4 to 1/3 of what it is today) and the tablet market will be at least twice the size it is today, dwarfing the classic PC market. You know it's true, the trends are already plainly visible.
captcha: immature
Ha ha, you are quite the comedian, you are.
That's kinda the point about tablets. To actually use them, you need more hardware.
Only the bluetooth keyboard is strictly necessary for serious work. The tablet plus keyboard still add up to much less weight and space than a laptop with typically several times the battery life, plus can you charge your laptop on a USB cable?
Another thing you need with a tablet is a stand, which often takes the form of a portfolio case. But it isn't hard to improvise when necessary.
The laptop already has that hardware. So you are effectively needing a laptop that can be minimized at times.
The opposite. I need a tablet that can be maximized at times.
By the way, have you ever used a laptop on a commuter train? If you fail to get a seat with a table (normal case) then it really sucks. A tablet is perfectly usable.
Eventually all computers for consumers and common business workers are going to be downsized to tablets or smaller, with accessory hardware available as needed. They'll still be 10 times more powerful than the newest Intel i7's are today, just as the current tablets are much more powerful than the first Pentium PCs. But that's a ways off in the future yet, just like George Jetson's flying car that folds into a briefcase. For now we need something with more space, or more power, or more screen, or more hardware than simple tables.
Tablets are already awesomely powerful and capable of pretty much all the computation I need on the road, short of a massive build or debugging session. I typically do those by ssh to a build farm, sometimes using the tablet.
In the real world I'll just use the right tool for the job.
In school, you carry your tools between your ears, you didn't go there to learn powerpointing. I hope.
Well, I could be wrong about you, but my child certainly don't go to school to learn powerpointing, and if I found that being taught instead of proper academics I'd move my child to a different school the next day.
BTW, my child's school standardized on Linux, both the back office and teaching side. Even the security system. There great education software out there, and school administration software for Linux. See, free is compelling for educators these days, and students get a great chance to learn high value skills like programming and network adminisration (pen testing is particularly popular...)
From where I sit, Linux looks like the right tool for education, so I agree with you. Use the right tool for the job, and bin that expensive, proprietary, virus-magnet Microsoft crap.
Oh lookie, my post attracted the attention of a M$ astroturder with mod points.
When you wear a Tux you need cufflinks and studs, otherwise you look like a dork :)
Life's too short for that. I did not enter that on a tablet, but I certainly have entered that much and more frequently enough in the past. I always use a bluetooth keyboard for that. My HTC Vision, unfortunately not made any more, has been good for a large amount of IRC chat, which works well on its flip out keyboard, the best that was ever made for a phone IMHO. But posting to slashdot is still a bit much, and even on IRC I tend to abbreviate more.
Devs are a tiny sliver of the computer market. That said, I am one, but I have a range of interests besides development, a number of which map nicely to the tablet. I have from time to time done miscellaneous development using the tablet for ssh (Connectbot, quite nice) but obviously it is not ideal for that. If you had to, you could make it work, and in truth, its vastly more capable than the early PCs I did develop on, but life is too short for that and everything is bloaty and complex now.
If they manage to get it to the point where they can use a mechanical action to recharge a usable computer with readable touchscreen display, complete with short range radio, then that gets it over the trinket hump... I would drop some spare change on that. I don't see it taking the world by storm.
Mechanical watches will always be a niche market and will never go away.
I wouldn't bet on that. Grandfather clocks went away. Typewriters went away. Neckties are in advanced stages of going away. I am sure somebody out there still has a grandfather clock, and there will be a few diehards with Rolexes, but the real limiting factor is, the legendary Oyster mainly makes you look like an asshole out to commit a fashion crime. Right up there with plaid suits. Sure, get an Armani plaid suit, it's still a plaid suit.
Self-winding Seiko. I wear it from time to time as jewelry. A digital watch is useless as jewelry, it's mainly good for achieving that fossilized look, just right for a PTA meeting.
I stopped wearing a watch about 20 years ago because there was always a clock wherever I was, either on my computer, laptop, cell phone, car dashboard, departure gate, whatever When phones got small enough and rugged enough to be always in the pocket, well, presto, return of the pocket watch. Strongly agree that watches won't be for telling time any more. They will be for... wait for it.... watching.
Why would people need traditional watches, again?
Same reason you need a silk pocket puff and cuff links, once every five years.