There are serious statistical problems with that paper, basically, because the surface station project is volunteer driven, the easiest to locate and closest to urban centers was sampled first which caused a very non-random early sampling, the first sentence of the paper is "The recently concluded Surface Stations Project surveyed 82.5% of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations and provided a classification based on exposure conditions of each surveyed station, using a rating system employed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to develop the U.S. Climate Reference Network." is wrong the project still isn't completed. Watts objected to the publication of the paper and was disregarded. Whether the paper is correct or incorrect is undetermined because it is statistically invalid.
Yeah buddy the world needs to listen to your ideas about a technical subject you never studied in any way especially when those ideas contravene the deeply considered opinions of duly qualified experts, an expertise you have exactly none of.
From the DSM IV, number one in list of characteristics of Narcissistic Personality Disorder:
Has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)
I suppose we'll just have to accept your commensurate achievements as an article of faith
Several years ago, there was a paper from a team of remote sensing scientists who showed that the algorithms for converting the satellite measurements into surface temperature were wrong. They were getting a deterministic error in the answers. (This also shows the difference between DATA and the interpretation of that data. The DATA was right, the interpretation was wrong. The data can also be wrong, but that's a different kind of error.)
If your referring to Spencer and his critics, Spencer is usually very careful to state that the satellite measurements are not surface temperature measurements.
The vast majority isn't collected by a "researcher", biased or otherwise;
The National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) is truly the Nation's weather and climate observing network of, by and for the people. More than 11,000 volunteers take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops. The data are truly representative of where people live, work and play.... A cooperative station is a site where observations are taken or other services rendered by volunteers or contractors. Observers are not required to take any tests. What is the Coop Program?
What your talking about is called "Climate Sensitivity", it's how many degrees of temperature rise happens for each doubling of atmospheric CO2 and it's value is subject to much disagreement among researchers but is probably going to stay in the vicinity of 1.5 - 3.0. the result is that if the atmosphere is at 250 PPM, adding an addition 100PPM will have more warming effect than if the atmosphere is at 390 PPM and adding an additional 100PPM. The bottom line is not every molecule of CO2 is equal.
Well the big problem is each side is arguing as if they are the status quo and the other has the burden of proof, that is why the warmists are so obsessed with the notion of "scientific consensus", they are using that as social validation of their assumed status quo position.
That's an informative graph covering the 126 year period from 1880-2006, The Chinese has constructed a 2,485-year temperature series
A blockbuster Chinese study of Tibetan tree rings by Liu et al 2011 shows, with detail, that the modern era is a dog-standard normal climate when compared to the last 2,500 years. The temperature, the rate of change — it’s all been seen before. Nothing about the current period is “abnormal”, indeed the current warming period in Tibet can be produced through calculation of cycles. Liu et al do a Fourier analysis on the underlying cycles and do brave predictions as well. Chinese 2,485 year tree ring study shows natural cycles control climate, temps may cool til 2068.
which puts a different perspective on things, even makes falsifiable predictions about the future, with their informative graphs. The entire article is available at Chinese Science Bulletin. I'm personally skeptical of Dendrochronology being able to accurately and reliable separate temperature influences from others like rain fall, analysis of other sources will prove interesting.
Natural variation is just as plausible. The Earth's climate shown a loosely coupled 30 and 60 year sinusoidal variation in atmospheric temperature riding on a slope of 0.02 C increase per century, this simple model not only better fits historical data, but was more predictive of our present temperatures than the climatologists models were.
An invitation to participate in t he survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists.... To maximize the response rate, the survey was designed to take less than 2 minutes to complete, and it was administered by a professional online survey site (http://www.questionpro.com) that allowed one-t ime participation by those who received the invitation.... This brief report addresses the two primary questions of the survey, which contained up to nine questions (the full study is given by Kendall Zimmerman [2008]): 1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant? 2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures? In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total). Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Jesus Fucking Christ that is 75 fucking people out of 77, 97.4% not a scientific consensus, here lets slice and dice the data a little different, only 3146 individuals out of 10,257 Earth scientists invited or 30.7% gave a big enough shit to answer a two minute online survey. No wonder the Warmistas never link to the original article.
How can the do that, teach scientific method and reasoning skills,
There's a climate of confusion in this country around climate science," says McCaffrey, and NCSE's goal will be to ensure that "teachers have the tools they need if they get pushback and feel intimidated."
, pushback , I take as the precious little darlings challenging the teachers to validate their premises, feel intimidated I take to mean as being embarrassed that they can't do it; tools they need there is your talking points.
X-rays are just a color of light, it's just beyond ultraviolet, and just like certain materials are clear in visible light and others are colored because it blocks certain colors of light, certain metals block certain colors of X-rays. Typically scientists and medical people don't think of X-rays in their color temperature, but by their energies. Medical X-rays are generally in the range of 145Kv, Dental are 70-90Kv and both are filtered through a 1.5 - 2mm aluminum filter.
Water isn't a problem in Oregon, drainage is a more likely problem. The Pacific Northwest is rain forest, Pacific temperate rain forest to be precise and they get about 2.5m of rain a year.
cynic: a person who believes that only selfishness motivates human actions and who disbelieves in or minimizes selfless acts or disinterested points of view. People have become so cynical, they are so intolerant of any idea that's less than perfect they are hard to trust with that attitude. You almost expect them to go out of their way to screw you before you can screw them. It's so much easier for them to sit back and snipe at every flow real or imagined in other peoples ideas that to come up with one of their own.
There is, just not enough to support combustion, how it happens is water vapor, being lighter than air rises and the ultravoilet light from the sun breaks it apart, then the hydrogen goes up even faster and the oxygen as O2 and O3 move downward. They think this is the mechanism that caused most of the Martian water to disappear.
And no one's gone to the trouble of modeling what happens when you chill down part of a lava dome.
Modeling what happens went you frack a volcano, or more properly the solid rock well away from the volcanic vent, would have to be an exercise in futility; any formulae would be guesswork and the variables input pure speculation.
Many years ago my son asked me after attending an Army training course on Linux Administration, "Dad why is Linux so hard, everything is command line; on Windows everything is GUI?" So as a good Dad I just had to show him how to fire up a command line on windows and how almost all of the "hard" cli stuff he learned in Linux training was also in Windows with only trivial changes, how editing/etc/hosts in nano in Linux was almost exactly the same as editing \windows\hosts in wordpad. Then I told him there are two reasons that he thought Linux was harder than Windows, first the instructors were ordered to teach the class and they did, but they didn't want anybody to learn the subject so they taught it in the most obtuse arcane way possible; secondly if someone thinks Windows is that much easier than Linux, they really don't know Windows as well as they think.
Their argument is actually that the slight warming caused by CO2 will increase the water vapor in the atmosphere, which will cause the lion's share of the continued warming, until they hit a tripping point in the arctic that'll release megatons of frozen methane which will lead to a catastrophic warming event. Depending on who you listen too climate sensitivity is between 1.4 to 2.5; if we look at 2, it means that for each doubling of CO2, the mean global temperature goes up 2 K Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is 14.0 deg-C 1980 338.68 PPM CO2 our present CO2 is 391.57PPM, when it get to 677 PPM the temperature would be expected to be 16 deg-C if they are correct. To get to 18 deg-C CO2 would have to go up to 1354PPM. Most of those clowns don't have a clue what the science they say is settled actually is.
Latest observations from Scripps among others have shown that the projected acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 is less than natural daily variation in some locations. "Over coral reefs, the pH decline between dusk and dawn is almost half as much as the decrease in average pH expected over the next 100 years. The noise is greater than the signal."
Obama is Dubya V2.0. The folks who thought he was liberal got pwned.
The folks who thought Dubya was conservative got pwned too. Obama wants to sell us out to big government, Dubya was sold us out to big bussiness, somebody else is just as eager to sell up out to big religion; the only thing that stays the same is we get sold out to something big.
I think the point is that Honda reprogrammed the energy management system to save the batteries at the cost of fuel economy; the reconfigured Hondas are fundamentally different from what they were when the fuel economy estimates were made.
Slashdot Mirror
There are serious statistical problems with that paper, basically, because the surface station project is volunteer driven, the easiest to locate and closest to urban centers was sampled first which caused a very non-random early sampling, the first sentence of the paper is "The recently concluded Surface Stations Project surveyed 82.5% of the U.S. Historical
Climatology Network (USHCN) stations and provided a classification based on exposure
conditions of each surveyed station, using a rating system employed by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to develop the U.S. Climate Reference Network." is wrong the project still isn't completed. Watts objected to the publication of the paper and was disregarded. Whether the paper is correct or incorrect is undetermined because it is statistically invalid.
Yeah buddy the world needs to listen to your ideas about a technical subject you never studied in any way especially when those ideas contravene the deeply considered opinions of duly qualified experts, an expertise you have exactly none of.
From the DSM IV, number one in list of characteristics of Narcissistic Personality Disorder:
Has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)
I suppose we'll just have to accept your commensurate achievements as an article of faith
Several years ago, there was a paper from a team of remote sensing scientists who showed that the algorithms for converting the satellite measurements into surface temperature were wrong. They were getting a deterministic error in the answers. (This also shows the difference between DATA and the interpretation of that data. The DATA was right, the interpretation was wrong. The data can also be wrong, but that's a different kind of error.)
If your referring to Spencer and his critics, Spencer is usually very careful to state that the satellite measurements are not surface temperature measurements.
The vast majority isn't collected by a "researcher", biased or otherwise;
and that's usually the better data.
What your talking about is called "Climate Sensitivity", it's how many degrees of temperature rise happens for each doubling of atmospheric CO2 and it's value is subject to much disagreement among researchers but is probably going to stay in the vicinity of 1.5 - 3.0. the result is that if the atmosphere is at 250 PPM, adding an addition 100PPM will have more warming effect than if the atmosphere is at 390 PPM and adding an additional 100PPM. The bottom line is not every molecule of CO2 is equal.
Well the big problem is each side is arguing as if they are the status quo and the other has the burden of proof, that is why the warmists are so obsessed with the notion of "scientific consensus", they are using that as social validation of their assumed status quo position.
10,257 Earth scientists invited, 3146 bother to respond of which (76 of 79) became the 97% consensus.
That's an informative graph covering the 126 year period from 1880-2006, The Chinese has constructed a 2,485-year temperature series
which puts a different perspective on things, even makes falsifiable predictions about the future, with their informative graphs. The entire article is available at Chinese Science Bulletin. I'm personally skeptical of Dendrochronology being able to accurately and reliable separate temperature influences from others like rain fall, analysis of other sources will prove interesting.
Natural variation is just as plausible. The Earth's climate shown a loosely coupled 30 and 60 year sinusoidal variation in atmospheric temperature riding on a slope of 0.02 C increase per century, this simple model not only better fits historical data, but was more predictive of our present temperatures than the climatologists models were.
Jesus Fucking Christ that is 75 fucking people out of 77, 97.4% not a scientific consensus, here lets slice and dice the data a little different, only 3146 individuals out of 10,257 Earth scientists invited or 30.7% gave a big enough shit to answer a two minute online survey. No wonder the Warmistas never link to the original article.
But, glaciers and snow packs are shrinking, have been shrinking, for the last 50-100 years. Hard to argue that this isn't the case.
Actually they have been shrinking since the LIA, Little Ice Age, but that was well before anthropogentic CO2.
How can the do that, teach scientific method and reasoning skills,
, pushback , I take as the precious little darlings challenging the teachers to validate their premises, feel intimidated I take to mean as being embarrassed that they can't do it; tools they need there is your talking points.
X-rays are just a color of light, it's just beyond ultraviolet, and just like certain materials are clear in visible light and others are colored because it blocks certain colors of light, certain metals block certain colors of X-rays. Typically scientists and medical people don't think of X-rays in their color temperature, but by their energies. Medical X-rays are generally in the range of 145Kv, Dental are 70-90Kv and both are filtered through a 1.5 - 2mm aluminum filter.
Water isn't a problem in Oregon, drainage is a more likely problem. The Pacific Northwest is rain forest, Pacific temperate rain forest to be precise and they get about 2.5m of rain a year.
cynic: a person who believes that only selfishness motivates human actions and who disbelieves in or minimizes selfless acts or disinterested points of view. People have become so cynical, they are so intolerant of any idea that's less than perfect they are hard to trust with that attitude. You almost expect them to go out of their way to screw you before you can screw them. It's so much easier for them to sit back and snipe at every flow real or imagined in other peoples ideas that to come up with one of their own.
There is, just not enough to support combustion, how it happens is water vapor, being lighter than air rises and the ultravoilet light from the sun breaks it apart, then the hydrogen goes up even faster and the oxygen as O2 and O3 move downward. They think this is the mechanism that caused most of the Martian water to disappear.
And no one's gone to the trouble of modeling what happens when you chill down part of a lava dome.
Modeling what happens went you frack a volcano, or more properly the solid rock well away from the volcanic vent, would have to be an exercise in futility; any formulae would be guesswork and the variables input pure speculation.
Many years ago my son asked me after attending an Army training course on Linux Administration, "Dad why is Linux so hard, everything is command line; on Windows everything is GUI?" So as a good Dad I just had to show him how to fire up a command line on windows and how almost all of the "hard" cli stuff he learned in Linux training was also in Windows with only trivial changes, how editing /etc/hosts in nano in Linux was almost exactly the same as editing \windows\hosts in wordpad. Then I told him there are two reasons that he thought Linux was harder than Windows, first the instructors were ordered to teach the class and they did, but they didn't want anybody to learn the subject so they taught it in the most obtuse arcane way possible; secondly if someone thinks Windows is that much easier than Linux, they really don't know Windows as well as they think.
The real means of production isn't the capital equipment in the factories, it's the workers.
Then drink more Tiger Milk, preferably straight from the nipple, it worked for Charlie.
Wow interesting, I'd never have believed that even the Hockey Team would admit that their is no looming catastrophe.
Their argument is actually that the slight warming caused by CO2 will increase the water vapor in the atmosphere, which will cause the lion's share of the continued warming, until they hit a tripping point in the arctic that'll release megatons of frozen methane which will lead to a catastrophic warming event. Depending on who you listen too climate sensitivity is between 1.4 to 2.5; if we look at 2, it means that for each doubling of CO2, the mean global temperature goes up 2 K
Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is 14.0 deg-C
1980 338.68 PPM CO2
our present CO2 is 391.57PPM, when it get to 677 PPM the temperature would be expected to be 16 deg-C if they are correct. To get to 18 deg-C CO2 would have to go up to 1354PPM. Most of those clowns don't have a clue what the science they say is settled actually is.
Latest observations from Scripps among others have shown that the projected acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 is less than natural daily variation in some locations.
"Over coral reefs, the pH decline between dusk and dawn is almost half as much as the decrease in average pH expected over the next 100 years. The noise is greater than the signal."
Obama is Dubya V2.0. The folks who thought he was liberal got pwned.
The folks who thought Dubya was conservative got pwned too. Obama wants to sell us out to big government, Dubya was sold us out to big bussiness, somebody else is just as eager to sell up out to big religion; the only thing that stays the same is we get sold out to something big.
I think the point is that Honda reprogrammed the energy management system to save the batteries at the cost of fuel economy; the reconfigured Hondas are fundamentally different from what they were when the fuel economy estimates were made.