If I understand correctly, you're worried that exporting programming work to India will cause the US to lose its own edge at programming. I wonder if it's more likely that the competition will motivate us to make strides?
The thing that got me thinking about the whole topic of international trade to begin with was Home Depot. They were going to build one locally in Auburn, California. A group of concerned citizens (whom I suspect were mom & pop hardware store owners) lead an uproar that they didn't want their Auburn-earned money going out of town and state to Georgia (where Home Depot is based). Imagine if protectionism were really applied between states, or even counties and cities. Those damn Georgians taking away jobs from hard working Californians!
To me, fretting about Indian programmers is like fretting about French winemakers, Japanese carmakers, or Swedish heavy metal bands. Don't let fear paralyze you, let it motivate you to make better wine, cars, heavy metal, or programs.
I'm not saying "let them eat cake". Economic idealogy won't console someone who's fallen on hard times. But I'm afraid putting the brakes on our economy to "save" jobs might not help anyone in the long run. Change, progress, upheaval are reality. If we stand still, what's to keep other countries (who do take advantage of Indian programming) from leaving us in the dust?
OK, you're pissed off. However, do you know of an example where protetionism has done more good than harm? Protectionism has a long history.
Change and upheaval aren't products of free market idealogy. They're facts of life. A programmer who expects his niche to last forever is simply deluded. Do you think the government should or could have protected Cobol programmers from becoming obsolete?
Even if the government managed to freeze progress in the US so your job could last indefinitely, the rest of the world would pass us by. Once we fell far enough behind, you'd lose your job anyway. If you doubt that, talk to someone who worked for Bethlehem Steel.
I'm sorry, I don't understand your point. Say I buy a bottle of Chimay beer from Belgium. I'll drink it that night. I got the full benefit of the good, even though it's now gone. I don't care how long Chimay holds on to the $10 I spent. No matter when the brewery decides to redeem the dollars I gave them, they ultimately have to be redeemed for an American good or service. Although there's been a "trade deficit" in favor of Belgium (I don't remember Chimay ever contracting me for any programming work), we're both happy.
Likewise for Indian programmers, the money we send them has to come back, or we've got something for nothing. Regardless of when or where Indians invest their US dollars, we got our program written. And in the case of a program - unless bit rot strikes;) - we've got a good that can last forever.
Do you know of an example where protectionism been successful in the long term? It's been used many, many times. The result is always less competition. Doesn't protectionism, by definition, means you're protecting (coddling) an industry? The topic has been illustrate well in satire: The Candlemaker's Petition.
The justification of a protectionism is always that it'll have some general benefit to society, but it's always really a hidden transfer of wealth from consumers (who would otherwise pay less for the protected good) to local producers. For example, costlier steel (because of tariffs) doesn't help America, it just means our cars cost more.
P.S. I'm just as opposed as the next guy to corporate welfare.
The subdivided and affordable housing you describe sound like good ideas.
As far as nationalizing drug research, I'm skeptical. The profits drug companies make reflect the value people place on innovative drugs. It's like sports. It may seem outrageous that guys like Shaq makes millions, but if there weren't those millions to be made, the NBA wouldn't attract the world class athletes it does. I don't want an FDA quality agency in charge of curing cancer or alzheimers. I'd prefer the scientific equivalent of the Los Angles Lakers: Biotechnology All-Stars. Price controls are even more misguided. Our medical system isn't perfect, but moving it in the right direction might best be done by looking to the success of Singapore.
I just realized this is way off topic... uh, and what about those Indian programmers, huh? We're gonna have to keep sharp if those folks aren't going to make the American programmer a relic.
Sure, legal immigration is preferable, but I tend to like people in general. I don't scorn someone because a govt agency like the IMF hasn't given them their blessing. You see those guys who float here on rafts made from old cars or inflated condoms or whatever, braving the sharks, and you want to turn them away? Hell, if anyone's going to appreciate the country it's a guy who's had to risk something to get here. Instead of kicking 'em out cuz they ain't legal. Make it easier for 'em to join the club legit. Have them memorize the Constititution, or whatnot, and get on with things. I don't think going through the IMF's bureaucratic nightmare helps anyone.
I don't want to be presumptuous, but are you sure you aren't using immigrants as a scapegoat for your state's problems? You're offering benefits to illegals, and blaming the illegals for taking advantage of it? I'd say scrap the benefits and welcome the immigrants.
Are you saying it's bad that "immigrants build the country"? I missed your point. Personally, I think immigrants are great (but, hey, I'm descended from immigrants - well, aren't we all).
P.S. Cato isn't right wing, they're classically liberal (think John Stuart Mill, Thomas Jefferson). They support drug legalization and many other liberal issues. I'd hardly say they pander to politicians. Their agenda is far more consistent and redical than most politicians would find politically expedient.
Your comment brings many questions to mind on the issue of international trade:
When I buy wine from France, am I exporting American dollars for good? Do those dollars dissipate into the Gallic ether, or do the French vintners expect to be able to trade those dollars back for something of value from America?
Likewise, if I pay an Indian to write a program, where do those dollars ultimately get redeemed? He got small portraits of old US presidents; I got a program I can use to help my business. Seems like I've made out like a bandit. What am I missing?
Also, where do I spend the money I saved on hiring him versus a more expensive American? Do I hoard it under my pillow, burn it in the hibachi, or hire more employees and reinvest in my company?
If you like the idea of "subdivided housing", might I recommend the book "We The Living". The protaganist's house in Soviet Russia is subdivided so that she has to accept tenants in her home. In practice, it ends up not being all that appealing.
You want to break up drug companies? I read a good article in Forbes magazine about drug researchers. The good ones tend to be top notch scientists, really the pinnacle of humanity. If drug research weren't a rewarding industry, I'd be suprised if it attracted the same caliber of people. I wouldn't be too quick to stiffle a vibrant industry.
What is "affordable housing"? Who would build homes that couldn't be afforded? You mean subsidized housing, which drives up the cost of unsubsidized housing for the middle class.
Would a country of burger flippers outsource its programming needs to India? If the only thing the US is good at is flipping burgers, what will the Indians spend their dollars on? Dollars are only valuable to Indians to the extent they can be exchanged for US goods and services that Indians want. We're watching a teetertoter tip, but don't make the mistake of imagining current trends can be extend into the future indefinitely.
"The methodological arsenal of modern econometrics cannot detect a single shred of evidence that immigrants have a sizeable adverse impact on the earnings and employment opportunities of natives."-
George Borjas
How long did you expect the US's domination of the tech industry to last? It's like the game industry. Atari, Nintendo, or Sony couldn't stay top dog forever. The US is like Sega; we're losing the game of "making consoles" (goods), so now we've got to focus on "publishing" (services).
I think there's a future in technology. Our agriculture industry is bigger now than it was during the agricultural era; our manufacturing industry is bigger now than it was during the industrial era; I can only assume that our technology industry will find ways to grow in the "knowledge era". That is assuming we don't while away all our time taking umbrage to India.
The US sells more cars now than it did before the Japanese became serious contenders. Competition can spur an industry to success.
Do you mean the USA or California? You couldn't buy a hovel for $200k in Santa Clara, but that'd afford a large house in Georgia. Regardless, don't you think it's asbsurd for someone with as many luxuries as the average American to complain about the cost of living? This is the wealthiest place in the wealthiest time in history.
I complained myself until my wife and I got serious about tracking our budget, and I realized how much we spent on DVDs, video games, soda pop, broadband, cell phones, beer, and a hundred other costly trifles. Once we cut that crap out of our budget, saving for a home downpayment was smoother sailing.
My point is that griping is the wrong response to outsourcing. If the tactic of the American programmer is to complain instead of compete, he's doomed. No amount of government protectionism will defend a stagnant industry from being passed by.
Our situation as programmers is not unique to history. The steel industry has the most obvious parallels. Complaining about India's low standard of living will lead us down the same path as complaining about "dumping" lead the US steel industry: otiosity.
Oh the woes of affluenza... A cup of Starbucks costs $3, outrageous! Your Direct TV bill is $50/month, egad! A large screen plasma HDTV costs $5000, the humanity! A Lexus costs $50k... Face it, you live better than Caesar or Charlemagne. You're among world's top 0.719% richest people, living in a land of plenty. I don't think it's fair to begrudge India because it has a low cost of living.
$45k/year puts you in the top 1.72% richest people in the world. If you're in the top 2%, is it reasonable to complain about your life style? At $45k, you probably own a TV, microwave, hot tub, two cars, DVD player, PC, PS2... Imagine what kind of college savings you could accumulate for yor kids if you put as much money as you spend just on cable TV monthly into savings with compound interest. The average Joe in India makes $500/year. I think we can cut them some slack for trying to make a better life for themselves.
The man on the street doesn't often fancy himself competent to speak to issues in physics or architecture. But everyone thinks they understand economic issues. Economic realities can be complicated and non-obvious. I think the quote was saying that people with no expertise in economics can jump the gun on fully understanding economic issues.
For example, I remember strong anti-Japanese sentiments in the US when their auto industry started seriouly challenging ours. When GM layed off 75,000 people it was hard to consider the long term benefits of "comparitive advantage". I remember the story of an Asian man who was bludgeoned to death in Chicago by some men who had lost their jobs. But today, that ill will has dissipated, and we're all driving around in these great Hondas and Nissans. If they had been protected from the competition, US auto companies wouldn't have improved as much as they have. I think US programmers will similarly rise to meet the challenge. The alternative is to be coddled from competition like the US steel industry was and to whither away like an atrophied limb.
What's wrong with a "trade deficit"? Doesn't that just mean that since the US is richer it buys more stuff? Other countries get green pieces of paper. In exchange, the US gets useful stuff (i.e. VCR's, cars, wine, etc). It's a good deal for the US.
In reality, of course, those green pieces of paper get redeemed by foreigners for US goods and services. It's not like Toyota just sits on top of the dollars they earn like Scrooge McDuck. Otherwise, we really would be just trading scraps of paper for automobiles. If it seems like a country is importing more than it exports (a real long-term trade deficit), we must be missing something - because that would imply that the other county is essentially giving something for nothing.
Like buying beer from Belgium or a video games from Japan, buying outsourced Indian programming is a good deal. You're not exporting greenbacks to Japan when you buy a PS2; you're making an exchange that benefits both parties. One might say the US isn't exporting jobs to India, its importing Indian labor.
To speed up loading Sun's JVM in Windows, open the "Java Plug-in" applet in the Control Panel and then select "do not start console". The Java console is for debugging but is enabled by default for some reason.
Are there any other Dark Reign fans out there? Dark Reign doesn't look quite as good as Star Craft, but I like the gameplay and units better, and it definitely has a better soundtrack. DR has so many cool features: units that can morph into terrain or disguise themselves as the enemy and slip into the enemy base to steal technology, saboteurs that can dynamite buildings, decoy buildings and units, the water contaminator. What a fun game!
They're not including a hard drive so they can make money on the Xbox 2. The hard drive is the reason they lose money on each Xbox 1 they sell. You can get the full scoop in Opening the Xbox.
Your analogy doesn't represent The Wiki Way. Here's my take: "Every citizen in WikiTown is armed. We figure, no matter what our population size, neerdowells will stay clear of a town where everyone packs heat."
Wikipedia has its own community standards. One of those standards is that rather than editing out a controversial point of view you edit it to be nuetral. So if someone writes a harangue on why "X is true". You don't remove it from the article - you edit it to say "group A believes X is true".
It's easy to revert a page: click "page history", open a previous version of the page, click "edit", and then click "save". Since it's so easy to undo vandalism, it's an unappealing forum for vandals.
We assume that the world is full of reasonable people and that collectively they can arrive eventually at a reasonable conclusion, despite the worst efforts of a very few wreckers. It's called optimism.
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If I understand correctly, you're worried that exporting programming work to India will cause the US to lose its own edge at programming. I wonder if it's more likely that the competition will motivate us to make strides?
The thing that got me thinking about the whole topic of international trade to begin with was Home Depot. They were going to build one locally in Auburn, California. A group of concerned citizens (whom I suspect were mom & pop hardware store owners) lead an uproar that they didn't want their Auburn-earned money going out of town and state to Georgia (where Home Depot is based). Imagine if protectionism were really applied between states, or even counties and cities. Those damn Georgians taking away jobs from hard working Californians!
To me, fretting about Indian programmers is like fretting about French winemakers, Japanese carmakers, or Swedish heavy metal bands. Don't let fear paralyze you, let it motivate you to make better wine, cars, heavy metal, or programs.
I'm not saying "let them eat cake". Economic idealogy won't console someone who's fallen on hard times. But I'm afraid putting the brakes on our economy to "save" jobs might not help anyone in the long run. Change, progress, upheaval are reality. If we stand still, what's to keep other countries (who do take advantage of Indian programming) from leaving us in the dust?
You thought I was for immigration at any cost and I thought you were bashing immigrants. But we're of like mind after all.
P.S. I meant "INS" (now BCIS), not "IMF" in my last post.
OK, you're pissed off. However, do you know of an example where protetionism has done more good than harm? Protectionism has a long history.
Change and upheaval aren't products of free market idealogy. They're facts of life. A programmer who expects his niche to last forever is simply deluded. Do you think the government should or could have protected Cobol programmers from becoming obsolete?
Even if the government managed to freeze progress in the US so your job could last indefinitely, the rest of the world would pass us by. Once we fell far enough behind, you'd lose your job anyway. If you doubt that, talk to someone who worked for Bethlehem Steel.
I'm sorry, I don't understand your point. Say I buy a bottle of Chimay beer from Belgium. I'll drink it that night. I got the full benefit of the good, even though it's now gone. I don't care how long Chimay holds on to the $10 I spent. No matter when the brewery decides to redeem the dollars I gave them, they ultimately have to be redeemed for an American good or service. Although there's been a "trade deficit" in favor of Belgium (I don't remember Chimay ever contracting me for any programming work), we're both happy.
;) - we've got a good that can last forever.
Likewise for Indian programmers, the money we send them has to come back, or we've got something for nothing. Regardless of when or where Indians invest their US dollars, we got our program written. And in the case of a program - unless bit rot strikes
Do you know of an example where protectionism been successful in the long term? It's been used many, many times. The result is always less competition. Doesn't protectionism, by definition, means you're protecting (coddling) an industry? The topic has been illustrate well in satire: The Candlemaker's Petition.
The justification of a protectionism is always that it'll have some general benefit to society, but it's always really a hidden transfer of wealth from consumers (who would otherwise pay less for the protected good) to local producers. For example, costlier steel (because of tariffs) doesn't help America, it just means our cars cost more.
P.S. I'm just as opposed as the next guy to corporate welfare.
The subdivided and affordable housing you describe sound like good ideas.
As far as nationalizing drug research, I'm skeptical. The profits drug companies make reflect the value people place on innovative drugs. It's like sports. It may seem outrageous that guys like Shaq makes millions, but if there weren't those millions to be made, the NBA wouldn't attract the world class athletes it does. I don't want an FDA quality agency in charge of curing cancer or alzheimers. I'd prefer the scientific equivalent of the Los Angles Lakers: Biotechnology All-Stars. Price controls are even more misguided. Our medical system isn't perfect, but moving it in the right direction might best be done by looking to the success of Singapore.
I just realized this is way off topic... uh, and what about those Indian programmers, huh? We're gonna have to keep sharp if those folks aren't going to make the American programmer a relic.
Sure, legal immigration is preferable, but I tend to like people in general. I don't scorn someone because a govt agency like the IMF hasn't given them their blessing. You see those guys who float here on rafts made from old cars or inflated condoms or whatever, braving the sharks, and you want to turn them away? Hell, if anyone's going to appreciate the country it's a guy who's had to risk something to get here. Instead of kicking 'em out cuz they ain't legal. Make it easier for 'em to join the club legit. Have them memorize the Constititution, or whatnot, and get on with things. I don't think going through the IMF's bureaucratic nightmare helps anyone.
I don't want to be presumptuous, but are you sure you aren't using immigrants as a scapegoat for your state's problems? You're offering benefits to illegals, and blaming the illegals for taking advantage of it? I'd say scrap the benefits and welcome the immigrants.
Are you saying it's bad that "immigrants build the country"? I missed your point. Personally, I think immigrants are great (but, hey, I'm descended from immigrants - well, aren't we all).
P.S. Cato isn't right wing, they're classically liberal (think John Stuart Mill, Thomas Jefferson). They support drug legalization and many other liberal issues. I'd hardly say they pander to politicians. Their agenda is far more consistent and redical than most politicians would find politically expedient.
Your comment brings many questions to mind on the issue of international trade:
When I buy wine from France, am I exporting American dollars for good? Do those dollars dissipate into the Gallic ether, or do the French vintners expect to be able to trade those dollars back for something of value from America?
Likewise, if I pay an Indian to write a program, where do those dollars ultimately get redeemed? He got small portraits of old US presidents; I got a program I can use to help my business. Seems like I've made out like a bandit. What am I missing?
Also, where do I spend the money I saved on hiring him versus a more expensive American? Do I hoard it under my pillow, burn it in the hibachi, or hire more employees and reinvest in my company?
If you like the idea of "subdivided housing", might I recommend the book "We The Living". The protaganist's house in Soviet Russia is subdivided so that she has to accept tenants in her home. In practice, it ends up not being all that appealing.
You want to break up drug companies? I read a good article in Forbes magazine about drug researchers. The good ones tend to be top notch scientists, really the pinnacle of humanity. If drug research weren't a rewarding industry, I'd be suprised if it attracted the same caliber of people. I wouldn't be too quick to stiffle a vibrant industry.
What is "affordable housing"? Who would build homes that couldn't be afforded? You mean subsidized housing, which drives up the cost of unsubsidized housing for the middle class.
Would a country of burger flippers outsource its programming needs to India? If the only thing the US is good at is flipping burgers, what will the Indians spend their dollars on? Dollars are only valuable to Indians to the extent they can be exchanged for US goods and services that Indians want. We're watching a teetertoter tip, but don't make the mistake of imagining current trends can be extend into the future indefinitely.
How long did you expect the US's domination of the tech industry to last? It's like the game industry. Atari, Nintendo, or Sony couldn't stay top dog forever. The US is like Sega; we're losing the game of "making consoles" (goods), so now we've got to focus on "publishing" (services).
I think there's a future in technology. Our agriculture industry is bigger now than it was during the agricultural era; our manufacturing industry is bigger now than it was during the industrial era; I can only assume that our technology industry will find ways to grow in the "knowledge era". That is assuming we don't while away all our time taking umbrage to India.
The US sells more cars now than it did before the Japanese became serious contenders. Competition can spur an industry to success.
Do you mean the USA or California? You couldn't buy a hovel for $200k in Santa Clara, but that'd afford a large house in Georgia. Regardless, don't you think it's asbsurd for someone with as many luxuries as the average American to complain about the cost of living? This is the wealthiest place in the wealthiest time in history.
I complained myself until my wife and I got serious about tracking our budget, and I realized how much we spent on DVDs, video games, soda pop, broadband, cell phones, beer, and a hundred other costly trifles. Once we cut that crap out of our budget, saving for a home downpayment was smoother sailing.
My point is that griping is the wrong response to outsourcing. If the tactic of the American programmer is to complain instead of compete, he's doomed. No amount of government protectionism will defend a stagnant industry from being passed by.
Our situation as programmers is not unique to history. The steel industry has the most obvious parallels. Complaining about India's low standard of living will lead us down the same path as complaining about "dumping" lead the US steel industry: otiosity.
Oh the woes of affluenza... A cup of Starbucks costs $3, outrageous! Your Direct TV bill is $50/month, egad! A large screen plasma HDTV costs $5000, the humanity! A Lexus costs $50k... Face it, you live better than Caesar or Charlemagne. You're among world's top 0.719% richest people, living in a land of plenty. I don't think it's fair to begrudge India because it has a low cost of living.
$45k/year puts you in the top 1.72% richest people in the world. If you're in the top 2%, is it reasonable to complain about your life style? At $45k, you probably own a TV, microwave, hot tub, two cars, DVD player, PC, PS2... Imagine what kind of college savings you could accumulate for yor kids if you put as much money as you spend just on cable TV monthly into savings with compound interest. The average Joe in India makes $500/year. I think we can cut them some slack for trying to make a better life for themselves.
The man on the street doesn't often fancy himself competent to speak to issues in physics or architecture. But everyone thinks they understand economic issues. Economic realities can be complicated and non-obvious. I think the quote was saying that people with no expertise in economics can jump the gun on fully understanding economic issues.
For example, I remember strong anti-Japanese sentiments in the US when their auto industry started seriouly challenging ours. When GM layed off 75,000 people it was hard to consider the long term benefits of "comparitive advantage". I remember the story of an Asian man who was bludgeoned to death in Chicago by some men who had lost their jobs. But today, that ill will has dissipated, and we're all driving around in these great Hondas and Nissans. If they had been protected from the competition, US auto companies wouldn't have improved as much as they have. I think US programmers will similarly rise to meet the challenge. The alternative is to be coddled from competition like the US steel industry was and to whither away like an atrophied limb.
What's wrong with a "trade deficit"? Doesn't that just mean that since the US is richer it buys more stuff? Other countries get green pieces of paper. In exchange, the US gets useful stuff (i.e. VCR's, cars, wine, etc). It's a good deal for the US.
In reality, of course, those green pieces of paper get redeemed by foreigners for US goods and services. It's not like Toyota just sits on top of the dollars they earn like Scrooge McDuck. Otherwise, we really would be just trading scraps of paper for automobiles. If it seems like a country is importing more than it exports (a real long-term trade deficit), we must be missing something - because that would imply that the other county is essentially giving something for nothing.
Like buying beer from Belgium or a video games from Japan, buying outsourced Indian programming is a good deal. You're not exporting greenbacks to Japan when you buy a PS2; you're making an exchange that benefits both parties. One might say the US isn't exporting jobs to India, its importing Indian labor.
To speed up loading Sun's JVM in Windows, open the "Java Plug-in" applet in the Control Panel and then select "do not start console". The Java console is for debugging but is enabled by default for some reason.
Are there any other Dark Reign fans out there? Dark Reign doesn't look quite as good as Star Craft, but I like the gameplay and units better, and it definitely has a better soundtrack. DR has so many cool features: units that can morph into terrain or disguise themselves as the enemy and slip into the enemy base to steal technology, saboteurs that can dynamite buildings, decoy buildings and units, the water contaminator. What a fun game!
They're not including a hard drive so they can make money on the Xbox 2. The hard drive is the reason they lose money on each Xbox 1 they sell. You can get the full scoop in Opening the Xbox.
Your analogy doesn't represent The Wiki Way. Here's my take: "Every citizen in WikiTown is armed. We figure, no matter what our population size, neerdowells will stay clear of a town where everyone packs heat."
Wikipedia has its own community standards. One of those standards is that rather than editing out a controversial point of view you edit it to be nuetral. So if someone writes a harangue on why "X is true". You don't remove it from the article - you edit it to say "group A believes X is true".
From Wikipedia's "Replies To Common Objections":