No, you completely misrepresent the purpose of the analogy. I gave a more realistic description in my post above the one you are replying to. The purpose of this thought experiment is to show how small movements, or in the case of a series of theoretical fraking quakes, can trigger a much larger movement.
Yes, if you turn my explanation of how one or several small movements can trigger a much larger reaction into a thought experiment on the process of fracking and the formation of the strata around a fracking well, then you can butcher the strawman. That DOES get harder to understand and makes it easier to hand wave away the potential impact of smaller movements. Good job "RockDoctor" I'm certain you were well paid for wasting your time here.
Now here's what you're papering over: Fraking doesn't apply force to a single point, it doesn't, in fact, direct that force at all -- beyond sealing the upward path to prevent the liquid from getting back to the water table. You push a tremendous amount of liquid down until it shatters the rock formations sufficiently to release all (or, at least many of) the tiny pockets of gas. Great, you pump in pressurized liquid to replace the gas, also great. But you've fundamentally changed the nature of the underlying strata over a wide area, eventually over a few miles of deep rock. So -- to take your analogy back up -- I'd have to apply my selected strike to the entire exposed ceiling of the rockface, only a much stronger site -- shattering all that stone, up through the first 20 feet of rock above your head over a quarter mile in either direction.
Let's get specific,
Until two years ago Oklahoma typically had about 50 earthquakes a year, but in 2010, 1,047 quakes shook the state.
Why?
In Lincoln County, where most of this past weekend's seismic incidents were centered, there are 181 injection wells, according to Matt Skinner, an official from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the agency which oversees oil and gas production in the state.
A theory only a crazy cook would embrace, right? Well, lets take another look at TFA and the U.S. Army's deep waste pumping operation -- where for years the U.S. army pumped liquid under preasure into the earth of Colorado
Why was the process halted? “The Army discontinued use of the well in February 1966 because of the possibility that the fluid injection was “triggering earthquakes in the area,” according to the RMA. In 1990, the “Earthquake Hazard Associated with Deep Well Injection--A Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency” study of RMA events by Craig Nicholson, and R.I. Wesson stated simply, “Injection had been discontinued at the site in the previous year once the link between the fluid injection and the earlier series of earthquakes was established.”
bah, just a theory, oh wait,
Twenty-five years later, “possibility” and ‘established” changed in the Environmental Protection Agency’s July 2001 87 page study, “Technical Program Overview: Underground Injection Control Regulations EPA 816-r-02-025,” which reported, “In 1967, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determined that a deep, hazardous waste disposal well at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal was causing significant seismic events in the vicinity of Denver, Colorado.”
And yes, I did pick that source just to tweak you.
The fact that fraking has caused earthquakes isn't actually at issue here. The issue in TFA above is whether some of the fraking quakes contributed to the larger earthquake. It looks like in this case the USGS doesn't believe so -- but the above thread sets out to explain how that could happe
Sure -- gravity is nearly constant -- but correlation is never evidence of causation without something to tie the two together. (note: correlation does suggest a causal link, but that's not *evidence* of causation.)
Thought experiment -- imagine a church wall supported above an arch. Take a big sledge hammer and apply 600 lbs of force to the keystone (assume this is enough to either knock out the keystone or fracture it). Your hammer is the little quake. What happens next is the release of all the potential energy the keystone was keeping in place.
It's not like the little quakes add force equal to their energy to the fault -- the weight that shifts down onto the larger fault is the source of energy. It takes much less energy to shift some of that force around than the total potential energy stored in the positioning of those structures.
As to why you would blame fraking: (a) it is actively happening in and around Oklahoma, (b) it has been tied to a number of smaller quakes, including the recent quake in England, and is suspected to be the source of the smaller local quakes, (c) who said anything about blame?
Think of the deep strata as a series of huge boulders and sets of rock formation lying atop one another -- like a big dry masonry wall. At first the surface pressure only creates small releases, a rock high up the formation shifts slightly or cracks releasing pressure. Some of that pressure is immediately released in the form of a tremor, the rest remains as potential energy. Now the weight of that stone which had been held up (in part) by an arch or lintel farther up the structure is putting pressure directly down onto the lower surfaces. Not only that, but the shift has changed the entire structural dynamic of the earth -- suddenly hundreds of small stress points and load-bearing surfaces bear down onto a smaller and smaller area -- or rest on a long wide surface -- when that fault shifts or cracks the combined potential energy trapped in all the mass weighing on the fault is released.
So, it depends -- if the small quakes were all caused by a single fault shifting, then yes breaking that motion up into a series of smaller movements means there is less potential energy in the position of the strata around the fault -- if, however, the smaller quakes are movement on other faults or the impact of rock settling into the gaps and pockets once occupied by natural gas under pressure -- then you might just be loading up the weight on that big fault creating a higher potential for a big movement.
I'll let you do whatever you want. But I think we should shift subsidies away from suburban education and transportation systems -- not to mention funding high-speed internet to your home -- and put that money into better, faster, safer urban life. I don't want to discourage your way of life, I want to encourage you to consider another by making that other way of life more attractive. It's already more cost effective on society, society should therefore try to make it more cost effective for you.
As for work at home -- I don't have the articles at my fingertips, but I believe the societal costs of telecommuting (including all the extra lights, heat/ac, phone systems, internet access etc.) supposedly far exceed the damage caused by your commute. I'd google it if you have any genuine interest.
Or we could seriously commit to harnessing wind, solar, waves, geothermal and human produced power (I mean ride your bike to work and take the stairs to decrease power consumption). We should also start putting policies in places that make it harder to be sub-urban. Cities are much more efficient at using energy than the far flung sprawl.
-GiH
Re:The next new airplane to get axed...
on
The F-35 Story
·
· Score: 3, Insightful
Our fleet is getting old, and our enemies are busy building 5th-gen fighters to beat ours as they eye their neighbors hungrily.
Uhm, who's that now? China is the only serious competitor out there that's in the jet building game nowadays, and while they may be eyeing their neighbors hungrily (and hell, they've been on a steady 1 conquest per decade rule for awhile now), they're pretty economically tied into the current relationship between the U.S., Eurozone and China. Their oil supplies are extra-national (ours are native) they're a net food importer (we're an exporter) and their entire economy is based on export fever. They may be aggressive, but "enemies" is a bit much.
-GiH
Re:Only "troubled" if you're not Lockheed Martin
on
The F-35 Story
·
· Score: 1
It would seem a handful of contractors and merc firms do pretty much everything now for the government.
Hey now, they don't do everything. Soldiers get to do all the fighting and dieing, and for much less per hour!
In corporate Amerika, harassment is not illegal unless the harassment falls under a protected category like race or gender. That means your boss yelling at you daily for inadvertently making him look stupid is not really harassment.
This is incorrect. Google "Hostile Work Environment."
Science that is not falsifiable (subject to testing and proving false, in other words) is not science. It's gospel.
I think you didn't read my post. The point is that it *is* verifiable. You can repeat the test. Social psychologists just tend not to bother doing so on these weird little tests. There are certainly many tests on racism -- for example the series of harvard and MIT tests examining the difference in association times between positive words and dark complexioned faces for different groups of people using standardized techniques and observing the results.
TFA indicates that one of the reasons this particular research got away with faking results was that no one wanted to repeat his tests -- no couldn't, not were unable to, were not interested in. The same thing could happen in any field.
The short answer is because courts have stated that locking your door or locking your computer inside your office is enough, but have not addressed the specific degree of online security required. It's a risky thing to give up control of information you are ethically bound to protect. Usually not worth the risk -- esp. when the cost of setting up your own IT system is relatively low. Much cheaper than defending a malpractice suit or hiring representation for an ethics investigation -- for example.
Still not your attorney. You should take professional responsibility as soon as possible. Remember -- the earlier you attempt your MPRE, the more chance you get at it.
First, you need some significant in-house resources just to connect a few hundred computers to the internet. Those aren't free. Notably, that would include routers, as the Grandfather suggested. Second, we cannot allow client data to be outside our control -- that would endanger confidentiality. In Illinois (and in every other state, I guarantee) attorneys are responsible for retaining and protecting client information -- including things like draft memos and attorneys' notes -- from access by any third party without client permission. That's why, for example, I couldn't use google-docs when I was running a solo practice. Even though I could lock access to the documents so only I could view the document, google's privacy policy (at the time I have not verified) gave them the right to view documents in their system. It is -my- responsibility to protect my client's information from search and seizure by the Gov't or a police agency. By entrusting my data to a datacluster, I could lose control of client data and not even know until I get hit for breaching the rules of professional conduct.
That's just two of the reasons its good to have in-house hardware. I haven't even dipped my toe into how useful leases are for defraying or reducing tax liability, and the myriad other more financial driven reasons why I might want to have an internal IT team.
Warning: the above is not legal advice. You are not my client. If you have a question, seek an attorney licensed in your state, not the ramblings of a lawyer on/.
In particular that research in social psychology is almost never replicated
If you can't replicate the results, then what good is it?
"can't" and "does not happen" are not the same thing. Psychology tests are repeatable (consider the Milgram experiment which has been repeated quite a bit see: wikipedia for example). But who's going to bother repeating the "messy workplace makes you racist" test? (yes, that's a rough and unfair summary of one of his papers)
If the government hired all of these sub-contractors as employees, then they would all be members of various federal unions, and the government would then be on the hook for all those unions' juice benefit plans and pensions. Also they would be paying payroll tax for them all (yes the government has to pay tax too).
You, sir, are a tool. The U.S. Gov't doesn't pay state taxes. There were a number of supreme court cases on that point. Even if the the U.S. Gov't did pay taxes, payroll taxes are taken out of the/employees/ pay, not gifted by the employer.
Ultimately this is the result of bad management by employees that are being told to keep headcount down as a primary driver. This happens in the private sector all the time, big boss says "fire ten employees so we can be more efficient and cost effective" said employees are term'ed only to have the remaining employees suddenly become much less efficient and significantly overworked (because they had to pick up the term'd employees workload) -- projects slip so gunslingers are brought in to finish them off -- at twice the cost with no gain in the institutional knowledge or expertise of the organization -- because the gunslingers take their pay and ride off.
I'd say it puts it on the level of "like it or not I sold my product, you scientists can go bag yourselves for all I care" pretty much regardless of the scam / not a scam reality.
?? it is described as a thermal (boiled water) plant. There are lots of moving parts. The reactor doesn't move much -- but then again neither does a fission reactor.
This thing is sketchy for plenty of real reasons. No need to make up shit.
Slashdot Mirror
So -- Don't call me a shill -- of course I am a shill -- but FUCK YOU for saying it.
You just made my day sir. This is going on the wall of hate at my firm. The homophobia is a beautiful twist on the usual rage at being called out.
Have a day.
-GiH
If the toddler was shattering thousands of feet of foundation stone at a time -- sure.
Yes, if you turn my explanation of how one or several small movements can trigger a much larger reaction into a thought experiment on the process of fracking and the formation of the strata around a fracking well, then you can butcher the strawman. That DOES get harder to understand and makes it easier to hand wave away the potential impact of smaller movements. Good job "RockDoctor" I'm certain you were well paid for wasting your time here.
Now here's what you're papering over: Fraking doesn't apply force to a single point, it doesn't, in fact, direct that force at all -- beyond sealing the upward path to prevent the liquid from getting back to the water table. You push a tremendous amount of liquid down until it shatters the rock formations sufficiently to release all (or, at least many of) the tiny pockets of gas. Great, you pump in pressurized liquid to replace the gas, also great. But you've fundamentally changed the nature of the underlying strata over a wide area, eventually over a few miles of deep rock. So -- to take your analogy back up -- I'd have to apply my selected strike to the entire exposed ceiling of the rockface, only a much stronger site -- shattering all that stone, up through the first 20 feet of rock above your head over a quarter mile in either direction.
Let's get specific,
A theory only a crazy cook would embrace, right? Well, lets take another look at TFA and the U.S. Army's deep waste pumping operation -- where for years the U.S. army pumped liquid under preasure into the earth of Colorado
bah, just a theory, oh wait,
Oliprice.com
And yes, I did pick that source just to tweak you.
The fact that fraking has caused earthquakes isn't actually at issue here. The issue in TFA above is whether some of the fraking quakes contributed to the larger earthquake. It looks like in this case the USGS doesn't believe so -- but the above thread sets out to explain how that could happe
Sure -- gravity is nearly constant -- but correlation is never evidence of causation without something to tie the two together. (note: correlation does suggest a causal link, but that's not *evidence* of causation.)
Thought experiment -- imagine a church wall supported above an arch. Take a big sledge hammer and apply 600 lbs of force to the keystone (assume this is enough to either knock out the keystone or fracture it). Your hammer is the little quake. What happens next is the release of all the potential energy the keystone was keeping in place.
It's not like the little quakes add force equal to their energy to the fault -- the weight that shifts down onto the larger fault is the source of energy. It takes much less energy to shift some of that force around than the total potential energy stored in the positioning of those structures.
As to why you would blame fraking: (a) it is actively happening in and around Oklahoma, (b) it has been tied to a number of smaller quakes, including the recent quake in England, and is suspected to be the source of the smaller local quakes, (c) who said anything about blame?
-GiH
Also -- it could be a random act of randomness. Those happen a lot as well.
Think of the deep strata as a series of huge boulders and sets of rock formation lying atop one another -- like a big dry masonry wall. At first the surface pressure only creates small releases, a rock high up the formation shifts slightly or cracks releasing pressure. Some of that pressure is immediately released in the form of a tremor, the rest remains as potential energy. Now the weight of that stone which had been held up (in part) by an arch or lintel farther up the structure is putting pressure directly down onto the lower surfaces. Not only that, but the shift has changed the entire structural dynamic of the earth -- suddenly hundreds of small stress points and load-bearing surfaces bear down onto a smaller and smaller area -- or rest on a long wide surface -- when that fault shifts or cracks the combined potential energy trapped in all the mass weighing on the fault is released.
So, it depends -- if the small quakes were all caused by a single fault shifting, then yes breaking that motion up into a series of smaller movements means there is less potential energy in the position of the strata around the fault -- if, however, the smaller quakes are movement on other faults or the impact of rock settling into the gaps and pockets once occupied by natural gas under pressure -- then you might just be loading up the weight on that big fault creating a higher potential for a big movement.
-GiH
Ayup -- from TFA[2] "gigantic 250 width tire" Those are metric numbers folks.
-GiH
Uhm -- but those pictures show something that looks alot more in the 25 cm range. Odd.
Stupid. Che was and evil homophobic war criminal.
Doesn't really matter who sold it.
I'll let you do whatever you want. But I think we should shift subsidies away from suburban education and transportation systems -- not to mention funding high-speed internet to your home -- and put that money into better, faster, safer urban life. I don't want to discourage your way of life, I want to encourage you to consider another by making that other way of life more attractive. It's already more cost effective on society, society should therefore try to make it more cost effective for you.
As for work at home -- I don't have the articles at my fingertips, but I believe the societal costs of telecommuting (including all the extra lights, heat/ac, phone systems, internet access etc.) supposedly far exceed the damage caused by your commute. I'd google it if you have any genuine interest.
-GiH
Skyhooks. Mmm.. sci-fi solutions to our problems.
Or we could seriously commit to harnessing wind, solar, waves, geothermal and human produced power (I mean ride your bike to work and take the stairs to decrease power consumption). We should also start putting policies in places that make it harder to be sub-urban. Cities are much more efficient at using energy than the far flung sprawl.
-GiH
Uhm, who's that now? China is the only serious competitor out there that's in the jet building game nowadays, and while they may be eyeing their neighbors hungrily (and hell, they've been on a steady 1 conquest per decade rule for awhile now), they're pretty economically tied into the current relationship between the U.S., Eurozone and China. Their oil supplies are extra-national (ours are native) they're a net food importer (we're an exporter) and their entire economy is based on export fever. They may be aggressive, but "enemies" is a bit much.
-GiH
Hey now, they don't do everything. Soldiers get to do all the fighting and dieing, and for much less per hour!
-GiH
This is incorrect. Google "Hostile Work Environment."
-GiH
I think you didn't read my post. The point is that it *is* verifiable. You can repeat the test. Social psychologists just tend not to bother doing so on these weird little tests. There are certainly many tests on racism -- for example the series of harvard and MIT tests examining the difference in association times between positive words and dark complexioned faces for different groups of people using standardized techniques and observing the results.
TFA indicates that one of the reasons this particular research got away with faking results was that no one wanted to repeat his tests -- no couldn't, not were unable to, were not interested in. The same thing could happen in any field.
The short answer is because courts have stated that locking your door or locking your computer inside your office is enough, but have not addressed the specific degree of online security required. It's a risky thing to give up control of information you are ethically bound to protect. Usually not worth the risk -- esp. when the cost of setting up your own IT system is relatively low. Much cheaper than defending a malpractice suit or hiring representation for an ethics investigation -- for example.
Still not your attorney. You should take professional responsibility as soon as possible. Remember -- the earlier you attempt your MPRE, the more chance you get at it.
-GiH
Uhm. No.
/.
First, you need some significant in-house resources just to connect a few hundred computers to the internet. Those aren't free. Notably, that would include routers, as the Grandfather suggested. Second, we cannot allow client data to be outside our control -- that would endanger confidentiality. In Illinois (and in every other state, I guarantee) attorneys are responsible for retaining and protecting client information -- including things like draft memos and attorneys' notes -- from access by any third party without client permission. That's why, for example, I couldn't use google-docs when I was running a solo practice. Even though I could lock access to the documents so only I could view the document, google's privacy policy (at the time I have not verified) gave them the right to view documents in their system. It is -my- responsibility to protect my client's information from search and seizure by the Gov't or a police agency. By entrusting my data to a datacluster, I could lose control of client data and not even know until I get hit for breaching the rules of professional conduct.
That's just two of the reasons its good to have in-house hardware. I haven't even dipped my toe into how useful leases are for defraying or reducing tax liability, and the myriad other more financial driven reasons why I might want to have an internal IT team.
Warning: the above is not legal advice. You are not my client. If you have a question, seek an attorney licensed in your state, not the ramblings of a lawyer on
-GiH
"can't" and "does not happen" are not the same thing. Psychology tests are repeatable (consider the Milgram experiment which has been repeated quite a bit see: wikipedia for example). But who's going to bother repeating the "messy workplace makes you racist" test? (yes, that's a rough and unfair summary of one of his papers)
-GiH
Hordes of the East? Seriously?
-GiH
You, sir, are a tool. The U.S. Gov't doesn't pay state taxes. There were a number of supreme court cases on that point. Even if the the U.S. Gov't did pay taxes, payroll taxes are taken out of the /employees/ pay, not gifted by the employer.
Ultimately this is the result of bad management by employees that are being told to keep headcount down as a primary driver. This happens in the private sector all the time, big boss says "fire ten employees so we can be more efficient and cost effective" said employees are term'ed only to have the remaining employees suddenly become much less efficient and significantly overworked (because they had to pick up the term'd employees workload) -- projects slip so gunslingers are brought in to finish them off -- at twice the cost with no gain in the institutional knowledge or expertise of the organization -- because the gunslingers take their pay and ride off.
It's stupid, regardless of job sector.
-GiH
I'd say it puts it on the level of "like it or not I sold my product, you scientists can go bag yourselves for all I care" pretty much regardless of the scam / not a scam reality.
-GiH
u Rossi bro?
Anyway, twitter is saying it worked and the sale went through.
Still skeptical, but softening.
-GiH
Actually, I do use my Xoom and Bionic as mirrors. Subtle way to check for food in the beard on the way to court.
-GiH
?? it is described as a thermal (boiled water) plant. There are lots of moving parts. The reactor doesn't move much -- but then again neither does a fission reactor.
This thing is sketchy for plenty of real reasons. No need to make up shit.
-GiH