Indeed. That's why they don't even bother with 11 days or 12 days. By the time you get 10 days out, you're mostly looking at the average for this time of year. Current conditions, existing weather patterns, don't tell you much about 10 days from now.
Seven days out you can say "there is a higher than average chance of rain" or "it may be warmer than normal".
> Based on research, one party tends to precipitate downturns, and it isn't who most think.
I did a chart intending to look at something else, and noticed something very interesting about that. I had intended to look at whether economic growth is better with Republican presidents or Democrat, but I ended up seeing something else in the chart, something I hadn't expected. Economic growth is all over the place - we've had good and bad while both parties were in office. Something interesting was obvious from the graph, though.
I figured a president's first budget takes effect a year after they take office, and anything else they do tends to have economic effects *after* they do it, so a I graphed based on budget years - a president gets credit / blame starting after they've been in office a year and their budget goes into effect. That's not perfect, but nothing is. Crediting or blaming them for the state of the economy on the day the take office certainly wouldn't make sense.
What I found is that the growth rate *always* got worse under Democrats and *always* get better under Republicans, except for 2008. I found that very interesting. There have been good and bad under both parties, but it was always worse at the end of a Democrat's term, and always better at the end of a Republican's term. (Except for 2008)
There is something else interesting, though. That transition year makes a big difference. It may be that whenever the economy is down, Republicans get elected president, then when the economy improves Democrats get elected. The economic trends may swing elections, as much or more than elections influence the economy.
Given the data seems extremely clear based on the methodology I thought would be fair *before* seeing the results, it looked like Republicans we're way better for the economy. But not so fast - the results are very sensitive to exactly when you assign blame or credit - blaming a president for the condition the economy is already in on the day they take office gives a different result (and probably a wrong result). So I can then look at one other thing to help me understand.
Subjectively, Democrats tend to be more idealists, "wouldn't it be great if we could...". They like the government to provide everyone with whatever. Republicans tend to be more pragmatic, asking how much it will cost, and whether it will actually work. Common sense is that asking how much things cost, and whether things actually work as opposed to wishing, would be better for the economy. It might be that the Democrats arw better at improving social justice, while the bean counter Republicans are better at the economy. It's an interesting topic.
Well you asked for the advice, so I'll give you some. The scenario you mentioned hits on two big things you should learn in your first few hours learning about investing.
First, balance your investments. The percent you have in bonds should be *very roughly* equal to your age, so he should have had over 70% in bonds, which don't lose value. In fact they can increase with the stock market goes down.
Second, don't panic and sell everything at once when there is a dip. If the market is headed down from a high and you're worried, sell 10% or even 15% Typical recovery time is about 18 months, so stay cool. After a year, if you feel you must, you can sell another 10% to protect some gains in case it stays down for a long time.
*You* choose when to sell stocks amd bond in your 401k. You do NOT need to sell all your investments the day you retire, and it would be stupid to do so.
You have to withdraw a little bit (of cash, not stocks) after you turn 71 1/2, but basically you decide when to sell.
As you stated, the economy and the market are cyclical, on a cycle of about ten years. If your dad decided to sell everything at the bottom of the market, I feel for him. That really sucks. He made a really bad decision, probably based on fear.
>> I see no reason to trust ERISA Laws; if the company running your 401k wants to spend the money they made on your money on hookers and blow they gosh darn can
ERISA regulates *pensions*. It has nothing to do with 401k accounts. *You* choose your investments in your 401k. Generally, you should choose an index fund with low expenses, definitely less than 1%. Vanguard has good ones.
-- we looked at the most recent 401(k) benchmarking data,... About 40% of companies contribute 50 cents for every dollar employees contribute up to 6% of their pay. Another 38% match employee contributions dollar for dollar. -- Investopedia.com
Are you tracking it in ten-minute intervals and counting every little fluctuation as gain that you "lost" 10 minutes later when it went back to the price of 20 minutes before?
The Dow is up 200% over the last 10 years, 300% over the last 20, and over 1000% over the last 30 years. Anyone who invested in index funds funds "for decades" at least tripled their money (two decades), if not a ten-fold gain (3 decades).
If you were gambling picking individual companies, of course you could poorly. You claimed an index fund though, anyone can see what the indexes have done in 5 seconds on Google.
Ergo you're full of shit.
Furthermore, you claimed it was in 401K. Given a typical 50% employer match, which ALSO grew by 300%-1000%, the total return on 401k invested in index funds has been well into four digits.
Many people think that for really big databases you need Oracle, for handling lots and lots of transactions. MySQL and Postgres are great for smaller businesses, but our business needs Oracle, they think.
Monday morning I'll be telling my boss that even AMAZON doesn't need Oracle. Facebook uses MySQL / Cassandra. If it can handle Amazon's volume, it can certainly handle ours. That's the big cost to Oracle - the press, the realization among other companies that even at Amazon's size there is no reason to use Oracle.
Oracle would do well to GIVE their products free to Amazon and Facebook just so they can say "we power the world's largest companies and databases".
Bezos chose a couple cities where he wanted to buy a house for himself.
Later, Bezos chose a couple cities where he'd like to put his business. I'm SHOCKED that Bezos chose the same place that Bezos chose.
Hopefully the people negotiating with him in those cities realized that Bezos already had a house there, so clearly he likes that city. Therefore they wouldn't need to negotiate quite as much as another city might.
> Anything less than a gigabit per second simply isn't broadband, whatever the FCC says
Technically, Ethernet and fiber are baseband. 128kbps ISDN is broadband. Back when ISDN was the thing, 128kbps and 256kbps broadband (multi-channel) isdn was faster than 56kbps modems, so people starting associating the word "broadband" with high-speed.
Ethernet and fiber, baseband (single-channel) are of course better than broadband technologies.
Farming was an early adopter of a lot of tech, such as GPS and yes, several internet-enabled technologies. If your view of farming is that it hasn't changed in 100 years, you'd be really surprised.
The cockpit of a modern combine can resemble a fighter jet, incuding heads-up display in a few cases. Farming equipment has been self-driving for a decade, with two-inch precision so as to operate between rows without damaging the plants.
Having said that, 2Mbps is fine. That's 200,000 characters per second. They say "a picture is worth a thousand words" amd that's true for bandwidth - photos use a lot more bandwidth than textual-type data, and video is thousands of times as much as data as pictures. Streaming multiple high-resolution videos takes a shitload of bandwidth, few other uses approach that bandwidth requirement.
I don't use OpenBSD anywhere else, but I agree it's particularly well suited to firewalls.
At one point I set up a machine that did nothing but store credit card numbers. It wasn't a web server or a database server or anything else, it had a single function so that it could be stripped of most software (since software has bugs). That too would have been a good place to use OpenBSD.
The one issue with that is because that's the only place I'd use OpenBSD, I'm not nearly as familiar with OpenBSD as I am with Linux. Using a system you don't know well to build a firewall on is also a bad idea, if you can instead use an operating system that you know inside and out.
I don't know of any type of fuel cell that has a specific energy anywhere near 100Kw or better Do you?
All the types I'm familiar with are four to six orders of magnitude too weak.
Turbofan engines are about 80,000 Kw/kg. (80Mw) Turboshafts are about 8,000-40,000 kw/kg. (40 Mw) The fuel cells I'm familiar with are around 100 watts / Kg.
Lithium ion batteries are up to 4,000 watts / kg so they are impractical, but physically possible for short flights. Fuel cells pf any type would be at least 40 times as heavy, and Li-ion is at the edge of just barely working, on specific power alone. You don't even want to get started on specific energy, when you need a 1,000 Kg tank to hold 100 Kg of hydrogen.
The relevant legal term is "warranty of merchantability". It's an implied warranty that manufacturers cannot (successfully) disclaim. The warranty of merchantability essentially guarantees that the item is fit to sell. It doesn't guarantee the quality is better than cheaper brands, but it does warrant that the product is fit for the marketplace - that it properly suits the needs of some purchasers.
I haven't done a deep dive on these particular Cisco accounts yet since I'm off work this week. At first blush, Cisco probably has a legal obligation to provide an update to fix this issue at no charge. Because it was never fit for sale, that needs to be fixed. If they choose to fix it with an update that also provides new features that's fine, but using the magic words "warranty of merchantability", preferably in a letter that sounds like it was written by a lawyer, should get you updates at no charge.
In addition, Cisco provides a LOT of documentation about which of its products are suited for which purposes, and how to configure them for different purposes. I've read literally thousands of pages from Cisco myself. By stating, in writing, that this particular product is suited for this particular purpose, Cisco may have also created a "warranty of fitness for a particular purpose". When they say in writing that a particular ASA is designed to function as a VPN gateway for enterprises with 1,000-5,000 employees, that may legally create a warranty that it is in fact somewhat suitable for the purpose claimed. If these security issues make it not suitable for the advertised purpose, Cisco needs to fix that at no charge.
You misunderstand. The registration goes away if all of the above are true: 1) They don't use online registration. 2) They don't complete the paper form, submitting a partial registration 3) The person NEVER shows up to vote
As soon as they show up ONCE, the poll worker gets the information that was missing and that finalizes the registration.
If you don't have a driver's license or state ID, you need to vote within 26 months after you register. If you never vote, eventually the incomplete or incorrect registration becomes inactive and you need to register again whenever yo decude to actually vote.
What you may not have seen, depending on your news source, is where those incomplete registrations came from.
99% of them came from his opponent. Georgia has a nice online registration system that cross-references with driver's licenses. People working for his opponent went out and registered a bunch of people using paper forms and made sure to leave certain fields blank, so that by state law they were considered "provisional". Provisional means, in this case, the person has to actually vote in order to "activate" the registration.
The opponent then ran ads deceptively trashig him for following state law and properly marking the registrations that the opponent purposely filed improperly.
I wonder what the heck you're talking about the. While I would use Apple's phones and tablets, my employers have been issuing me Macbooks the last few years and I always use multiple monitors with no problem. Just plug it in. The settings UI for it couldn't be simpler, in my opinion.
You might notice they don't all depend on each other, they are all defined in terms of the kilogram. That means you can know exactly how much a liter of water weighs. Further, that density of water doesn't change as the accuracy of our measurements improves.
Send it where? By mail? If we were designing a new phone system, we'd do it as a packet-switched digital network and have fields in the ring packet for that. The POTS is a circuit switched network. There are no fields, much less an easy way to add new fields.
> everyone else along the line... ask the owning company whether it is valid or not
So each call from one person to another requires four or five callbacks to the claimed originator SP. Congrats, you've just created an amplification attack.
> This approach can never be "cracked"
Well you already designed in an obvious security problem, so...
If we were designing the phone system from scratch, if we didn't already have a phone system, it would be easy enough to include signed token using PKI. The simplest approach, defining exactly how the encryption works, would be cracked in a few years, so really we'd want a framework for negotiating the encryption, similar to ipsec. That would certainly be doable.
The challenge is, we already HAVE the phone system. There is a trillion dollars of equipment out there designed to work with the existing standards. Changing the standards is non-trivial.
I run a very, very simple PBX. Basically a central number for a small non-profit people can call when they are in crisis. The approximately two calls per day are forwarded to volunteers.
I set it so thay the forwarded call correctly shows the caller's number. My provider has no way of knowing that. They sent an outgoing call from my system. They don't know and have no way of knowing that the other side is an incoming call from a different provider.
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Indeed. That's why they don't even bother with 11 days or 12 days. By the time you get 10 days out, you're mostly looking at the average for this time of year. Current conditions, existing weather patterns, don't tell you much about 10 days from now.
Seven days out you can say "there is a higher than average chance of rain" or "it may be warmer than normal".
Yes, that should be "definitely below . 1%". 0.1, not 1.
Thanks.
> Based on research, one party tends to precipitate downturns, and it isn't who most think.
I did a chart intending to look at something else, and noticed something very interesting about that. I had intended to look at whether economic growth is better with Republican presidents or Democrat, but I ended up seeing something else in the chart, something I hadn't expected. Economic growth is all over the place - we've had good and bad while both parties were in office. Something interesting was obvious from the graph, though.
I figured a president's first budget takes effect a year after they take office, and anything else they do tends to have economic effects *after* they do it, so a I graphed based on budget years - a president gets credit / blame starting after they've been in office a year and their budget goes into effect. That's not perfect, but nothing is. Crediting or blaming them for the state of the economy on the day the take office certainly wouldn't make sense.
What I found is that the growth rate *always* got worse under Democrats and *always* get better under Republicans, except for 2008. I found that very interesting. There have been good and bad under both parties, but it was always worse at the end of a Democrat's term, and always better at the end of a Republican's term. (Except for 2008)
There is something else interesting, though. That transition year makes a big difference. It may be that whenever the economy is down, Republicans get elected president, then when the economy improves Democrats get elected. The economic trends may swing elections, as much or more than elections influence the economy.
Given the data seems extremely clear based on the methodology I thought would be fair *before* seeing the results, it looked like Republicans we're way better for the economy. But not so fast - the results are very sensitive to exactly when you assign blame or credit - blaming a president for the condition the economy is already in on the day they take office gives a different result (and probably a wrong result). So I can then look at one other thing to help me understand.
Subjectively, Democrats tend to be more idealists, "wouldn't it be great if we could ...". They like the government to provide everyone with whatever. Republicans tend to be more pragmatic, asking how much it will cost, and whether it will actually work. Common sense is that asking how much things cost, and whether things actually work as opposed to wishing, would be better for the economy. It might be that the Democrats arw better at improving social justice, while the bean counter Republicans are better at the economy. It's an interesting topic.
Well you asked for the advice, so I'll give you some.
The scenario you mentioned hits on two big things you should learn in your first few hours learning about investing.
First, balance your investments. The percent you have in bonds should be *very roughly* equal to your age, so he should have had over 70% in bonds, which don't lose value. In fact they can increase with the stock market goes down.
Second, don't panic and sell everything at once when there is a dip. If the market is headed down from a high and you're worried, sell 10% or even 15% Typical recovery time is about 18 months, so stay cool. After a year, if you feel you must, you can sell another 10% to protect some gains in case it stays down for a long time.
*You* choose when to sell stocks amd bond in your 401k. You do NOT need to sell all your investments the day you retire, and it would be stupid to do so.
You have to withdraw a little bit (of cash, not stocks) after you turn 71 1/2, but basically you decide when to sell.
As you stated, the economy and the market are cyclical, on a cycle of about ten years. If your dad decided to sell everything at the bottom of the market, I feel for him. That really sucks. He made a really bad decision, probably based on fear.
>> I see no reason to trust ERISA Laws; if the company running your 401k wants to spend the money they made on your money on hookers and blow they gosh darn can
ERISA regulates *pensions*. It has nothing to do with 401k accounts. *You* choose your investments in your 401k. Generally, you should choose an index fund with low expenses, definitely less than 1%. Vanguard has good ones.
-- ...
we looked at the most recent 401(k) benchmarking data,
About 40% of companies contribute 50 cents for every dollar employees contribute up to 6% of their pay. Another 38% match employee contributions dollar for dollar.
--
Investopedia.com
Are you tracking it in ten-minute intervals and counting every little fluctuation as gain that you "lost" 10 minutes later when it went back to the price of 20 minutes before?
The Dow is up 200% over the last 10 years, 300% over the last 20, and over 1000% over the last 30 years. Anyone who invested in index funds funds "for decades" at least tripled their money (two decades), if not a ten-fold gain (3 decades).
If you were gambling picking individual companies, of course you could poorly. You claimed an index fund though, anyone can see what the indexes have done in 5 seconds on Google.
Ergo you're full of shit.
Furthermore, you claimed it was in 401K. Given a typical 50% employer match, which ALSO grew by 300%-1000%, the total return on 401k invested in index funds has been well into four digits.
Many people think that for really big databases you need Oracle, for handling lots and lots of transactions. MySQL and Postgres are great for smaller businesses, but our business needs Oracle, they think.
Monday morning I'll be telling my boss that even AMAZON doesn't need Oracle. Facebook uses MySQL / Cassandra. If it can handle Amazon's volume, it can certainly handle ours. That's the big cost to Oracle - the press, the realization among other companies that even at Amazon's size there is no reason to use Oracle.
Oracle would do well to GIVE their products free to Amazon and Facebook just so they can say "we power the world's largest companies and databases".
Bezos chose a couple cities where he wanted to buy a house for himself.
Later, Bezos chose a couple cities where he'd like to put his business. I'm SHOCKED that Bezos chose the same place that Bezos chose.
Hopefully the people negotiating with him in those cities realized that Bezos already had a house there, so clearly he likes that city. Therefore they wouldn't need to negotiate quite as much as another city might.
> Anything less than a gigabit per second simply isn't broadband, whatever the FCC says
Technically, Ethernet and fiber are baseband. 128kbps ISDN is broadband. Back when ISDN was the thing, 128kbps and 256kbps broadband (multi-channel) isdn was faster than 56kbps modems, so people starting associating the word "broadband" with high-speed.
Ethernet and fiber, baseband (single-channel) are of course better than broadband technologies.
Farming was an early adopter of a lot of tech, such as GPS and yes, several internet-enabled technologies. If your view of farming is that it hasn't changed in 100 years, you'd be really surprised.
The cockpit of a modern combine can resemble a fighter jet, incuding heads-up display in a few cases. Farming equipment has been self-driving for a decade, with two-inch precision so as to operate between rows without damaging the plants.
Having said that, 2Mbps is fine. That's 200,000 characters per second. They say "a picture is worth a thousand words" amd that's true for bandwidth - photos use a lot more bandwidth than textual-type data, and video is thousands of times as much as data as pictures. Streaming multiple high-resolution videos takes a shitload of bandwidth, few other uses approach that bandwidth requirement.
I don't use OpenBSD anywhere else, but I agree it's particularly well suited to firewalls.
At one point I set up a machine that did nothing but store credit card numbers. It wasn't a web server or a database server or anything else, it had a single function so that it could be stripped of most software (since software has bugs). That too would have been a good place to use OpenBSD.
The one issue with that is because that's the only place I'd use OpenBSD, I'm not nearly as familiar with OpenBSD as I am with Linux. Using a system you don't know well to build a firewall on is also a bad idea, if you can instead use an operating system that you know inside and out.
I don't know of any type of fuel cell that has a specific energy anywhere near 100Kw or better Do you?
All the types I'm familiar with are four to six orders of magnitude too weak.
Turbofan engines are about 80,000 Kw/kg. (80Mw)
Turboshafts are about 8,000-40,000 kw/kg. (40 Mw)
The fuel cells I'm familiar with are around 100 watts / Kg.
Lithium ion batteries are up to 4,000 watts / kg so they are impractical, but physically possible for short flights. Fuel cells pf any type would be at least 40 times as heavy, and Li-ion is at the edge of just barely working, on specific power alone. You don't even want to get started on specific energy, when you need a 1,000 Kg tank to hold 100 Kg of hydrogen.
The relevant legal term is "warranty of merchantability". It's an implied warranty that manufacturers cannot (successfully) disclaim. The warranty of merchantability essentially guarantees that the item is fit to sell. It doesn't guarantee the quality is better than cheaper brands, but it does warrant that the product is fit for the marketplace - that it properly suits the needs of some purchasers.
I haven't done a deep dive on these particular Cisco accounts yet since I'm off work this week. At first blush, Cisco probably has a legal obligation to provide an update to fix this issue at no charge. Because it was never fit for sale, that needs to be fixed. If they choose to fix it with an update that also provides new features that's fine, but using the magic words "warranty of merchantability", preferably in a letter that sounds like it was written by a lawyer, should get you updates at no charge.
In addition, Cisco provides a LOT of documentation about which of its products are suited for which purposes, and how to configure them for different purposes. I've read literally thousands of pages from Cisco myself. By stating, in writing, that this particular product is suited for this particular purpose, Cisco may have also created a "warranty of fitness for a particular purpose". When they say in writing that a particular ASA is designed to function as a VPN gateway for enterprises with 1,000-5,000 employees, that may legally create a warranty that it is in fact somewhat suitable for the purpose claimed. If these security issues make it not suitable for the advertised purpose, Cisco needs to fix that at no charge.
You misunderstand. The registration goes away if all of the above are true:
1) They don't use online registration.
2) They don't complete the paper form, submitting a partial registration
3) The person NEVER shows up to vote
As soon as they show up ONCE, the poll worker gets the information that was missing and that finalizes the registration.
If you don't have a driver's license or state ID, you need to vote within 26 months after you register. If you never vote, eventually the incomplete or incorrect registration becomes inactive and you need to register again whenever yo decude to actually vote.
What you may not have seen, depending on your news source, is where those incomplete registrations came from.
99% of them came from his opponent. Georgia has a nice online registration system that cross-references with driver's licenses. People working for his opponent went out and registered a bunch of people using paper forms and made sure to leave certain fields blank, so that by state law they were considered "provisional". Provisional means, in this case, the person has to actually vote in order to "activate" the registration.
The opponent then ran ads deceptively trashig him for following state law and properly marking the registrations that the opponent purposely filed improperly.
I recently heard rhe same thing from a former disguise expert from the CIA.
That should say I wouldn't use an iPad or iPhone.
Macs are a totally different thing though, different operating system. Mac OS is real Unix.
I wonder what the heck you're talking about the.
While I would use Apple's phones and tablets, my employers have been issuing me Macbooks the last few years and I always use multiple monitors with no problem. Just plug it in. The settings UI for it couldn't be simpler, in my opinion.
You might notice they don't all depend on each other, they are all defined in terms of the kilogram. That means you can know exactly how much a liter of water weighs. Further, that density of water doesn't change as the accuracy of our measurements improves.
> send the time stamp and random number.
Send it where? By mail? If we were designing a new phone system, we'd do it as a packet-switched digital network and have fields in the ring packet for that. The POTS is a circuit switched network. There are no fields, much less an easy way to add new fields.
> everyone else along the line ... ask the owning company whether it is valid or not
So each call from one person to another requires four or five callbacks to the claimed originator SP. Congrats, you've just created an amplification attack.
> This approach can never be "cracked"
Well you already designed in an obvious security problem, so ...
If we were designing the phone system from scratch, if we didn't already have a phone system, it would be easy enough to include signed token using PKI. The simplest approach, defining exactly how the encryption works, would be cracked in a few years, so really we'd want a framework for negotiating the encryption, similar to ipsec. That would certainly be doable.
The challenge is, we already HAVE the phone system. There is a trillion dollars of equipment out there designed to work with the existing standards. Changing the standards is non-trivial.
I run a very, very simple PBX. Basically a central number for a small non-profit people can call when they are in crisis. The approximately two calls per day are forwarded to volunteers.
I set it so thay the forwarded call correctly shows the caller's number. My provider has no way of knowing that. They sent an outgoing call from my system. They don't know and have no way of knowing that the other side is an incoming call from a different provider.
Read your link. You linked to a 32,000Kg fuel cell capable of 1Mw. A 32,000Kg plane would need 7Mw.
Again, the fuel cell can't provide enough power to fly itself - much less the weight of the fuel, tank, motors, wing, fuselage, etc.
Fuel cells can't fly.