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User: Raul654

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  1. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 1

    "I assume businesses act in their self interest, and if they don't they should get bankruptcy (not in their interest). I have no problem with stupid people/businesses doing stupid things as long as I'm not paying for it." - It's easy to say that business that don't act rationally should go bankrupt. But what do you do when you have ordinary people - people without a complex understanding of the mortgage market - who were pressured into purchasing dangerous financial instruments (adjustable rate mortgages) when fixed rate mortgages would have been much better (and not knowledgeable enough to know better)? Or to lenders that were outright defrauded by mortgage brokers who lied to them about the counterparty's ability to pay it back? The government absolutely has a responsibility to prevent these kinds of abuses.

    "No one company's bankruptcy would cause the entire economy to crater." - That is provably false. One insolvent bank can trigger a run on all banks, even solvent ones. That's what caused the panic of 1837, the panic of 1893, and especially the panic of 1907. The situation today, when financial institutions touch basically every other sector of the economy, is even more prone to collapse. You said "Lehman went through it" as if that somehow makes it OK. You forgot what came next. After Lehman Bros. imploded, it caused Bear Sterns to implode, and would have caused Bank of America and AIG to go down next had the government not stepped in. (And Lehman, the biggest bankruptcy in history, was dwarfed by both, by the way. Lehman's market cap was $50 billion market versus $69 [2012] for AIG and $102 [2012] for BoA)

    "Other businesses buy up the pieces and life goes on." - We've seen what happens when you let everything implode and trust the market sort it out. It was called the Great Depression. Yup, I couldn't imagine why anyone would object to letting that happen again.

    "I would never ascribe to the government the role of "ultimate arbiter of systemic risk". They can arbitrate contract disputes and punish fraudulent activity but they are not the overlords of the whole market." - What planet are you from? The US Government has been doing just that since - at the very least - the creation of the Fed in 1913, and arguably since the creation of the Second Bank of the United States in 1816. If you took a poll of 100 ordinary people on the street "Should the government intervene in the market to prevent depressions from happening?" you'd probably get nearly 100% of people agreeing to the idea, because it's common sense.

    ""too big to fail" was a lie told to congressmen (and their constituents) to give taxpayer money to companies in trouble as opposed to them taking responsibility for bad decisions." - maybe that congressman realized that, as politically unpalatable as bailing out the bad actors was, letting another great depression happen was even less politically palatable.

    "What gives you confidence in that assertion? Whether or not the lender brokered the mortgage itself, they would not own a mortgage with excessive risk if they didn't think the government was their backstop. (unless they were irrational and/or made bad decisions, in which case, let them go bankrupt!)" -- If the people brokering the mortgages had to own them and eat any losses caused by them, they would never have made those bad loans in the first place.

  2. Re:Sanity vs. politically motivated scaremongering on NOAA Study: Radiation From Fukushima Very Dilluted, Seafood Safe · · Score: 1

    The problem is that most people, skeptical or not, most people are not competent to assess such claims on their merits. Where big tobacco is concerned, it usually requires an advanced degree in biology or chemistry.

  3. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 1

    You're a fucking idiot. The housing downturn was small (relative to the rest of the economy) and probably inevitable. The economic meltdown that followed was big and entirely preventable. Go read a book. Idiot.

  4. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 1

    "If government bailouts weren't the assumed outcome, no one would take the risk to buy such crappy mortgages, and then brokers wouldn't try to get people into loans they can't afford. ' - In order to make that conclusion, you're assuming that all the players in the mortgage market acted rationally and with a full and complete understanding of what was going on and what was going to happen. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even Alan Greenspan (the biggest proponent of this line of thinking) has said he got it wrong.

    "I don't think there's anything wrong with repealing Glass-Steagal (and relish anytime part of the New Deal is repealed). If you were a curtain maker who wanted to start making blinds too, and then maybe got into stained glass - who is the government to say "no, you can only do x"?" -- if your company's failure would cause the entire economy to crater, then as the ultimate arbiter of systemic risk, it's most definitely the government's job to stop you. Just as it is their job to say 'no, you can't get any bigger" when companies want to merge or expand, or "you need to be broken up" when they are too large.

    "The only problem is when there's a true monopoly/oligopoly-collusion to set prices or start bullying other businesses around that you have a problem." - So you don't find "too big to fail" to be a problem in-and-of-itself (even if there is no predatory monopolism)? If that's the case, then frankly you have not learned the key lesson of the current recession.

    "Ironically it is the government's heaps of regulations that bully around small banks, because only the big banks can afford the teams of lawyers needed to wade through the red tape." -- I can't speak to all banking regulations, but I can say with confidence that if the same company had to broker and lend the mortgage (if the government had prohibited decoupling them) then the housing market downturn would have been much less severe.

  5. Re:Sanity vs. politically motivated scaremongering on NOAA Study: Radiation From Fukushima Very Dilluted, Seafood Safe · · Score: 0

    Yes, I admit that I'm clearly making an ad hominem argument. It's entirely possible that tobacco scientists do, occasionally, publish a real paper about tobacco safety - one which has no intentionally biased sampling or methodology. But I'm not an expert in tobacco safety, and I'm not qualified to play 'spot the trick' on their methodology. It's not realistic to expect that of the general public. That's what unbiased experts are for. (And yes, this is an argument from authority)

  6. Re:Sanity vs. politically motivated scaremongering on NOAA Study: Radiation From Fukushima Very Dilluted, Seafood Safe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm not an expert on cigarette safety, global warming, or hydraulic fracturing. With each of these industries, there's an obvious conflict of interest between the people employed in those industries putting out data related to those industries. And, I should add, each of those industries have long histories of putting out scientific misinformation that is nigh impossible for a non-expert to spot.

    Here's a little case study to prove my point. It's a classic 9/11 trutherism argument. Can you spot the fallacy? (Without looking it up, that is)
    Fact #1 - Steel melts at 1300 degrees C.
    Fact #2: Jet fuel burns at roughly 650 degrees C.
    Conclusion - The Twin Towers could not have been brought down by jet planes because airplane fuel does not burn hot enough to melt steel.

    The fallacy in the above case lies in the assumption that steel has to melt in order to bring down the trade towers. At 650 degrees C, steel loses 90% of its strength. But how many ordinarily non-engineers know this off the top of their head?

    As far as your claims about climate scientists, I'll be more skeptical of their conclusions when I'm shown that they have a horse in the race.

  7. Re:Sanity vs. politically motivated scaremongering on NOAA Study: Radiation From Fukushima Very Dilluted, Seafood Safe · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "simply claiming scientific fraud because you happen to disagree with the results is not a valid argument, sorry." - while this is true a philosophy class, in the real world it falls down. In the real world, there are plenty of scientists whose results can be discounted a priori. I automatically discount anything a "scientist" employed by a tobacco company has to say about cigarette safety, or that an oil company scientist has to say about global warming or the safety of fracking. It's too easy for them to cause bias in their results in ways that are nearly impossible for a non-expert to figure out.

    In this case, the results were from NOAA, which doesn't have a horse in the race, as far as I'm aware.

  8. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 1

    Nice strawman argument. I never said the government didn't bear some responsibility for the housing downturn. The point, which seems to have gone completely over your head, is that housing market is cyclical, and downturns happen fairly regularly. What made this one different is that policies - put in place by Republicans - turned the economy into a tinderbox and all that was needed to cause a meltdown was one spark.

  9. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 1

    "Where did the minority lending come into the discussion at all? People who couldn't pay the loans back were not only minorities, not by a long shot!" - For a while now, it's been standard Conservatives rhetoric that the recession was caused by the FHA and other minority-friendly lending programs. By extension, Conservatives can blame the democratic sponsors of these bills and deflect the blame from themselves.

  10. Re:This seems terrifying on Supreme Court Approves Strip Searches For Any Arrestable Offense · · Score: 5, Informative

    It's even worse than that.

    Not only had he paid the fine, and not only did he show the officer a sealed letter from the state saying he had paid it, but having an unpaid fine is not an arrestable offense (in New Jersey, where this all happened)

  11. Re:correlation != causation on Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records · · Score: 2

    I will argue exactly that: what happened in 2009 was a result of government social engineering forcing quasi-businesses Fannie+Freddie to give loans to people who couldn't pay them back.

    Then you obviously have no idea what you are talking about. You didn't even get the date of the recession right. It started in September 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers.

    Although it's popular among Fox news viewers to blame the recession on the Fair House Act and political pressure to lend to minorities as you just did, the facts don't back up this argument at all. Minority lending in the pre-recession economy was something like 5% of the total mortgages. Even if every single one of those loans was made because of the FHA (they weren't), and even if every single one of those loans was bad (again, not true), it still wouldn't even come close to explaining why the housing market tanked or why the economy exploded. The housing market collapsed because (a) home prices were vastly overinflated, twice their inflationary-adjusted historical levels (b) credit was too easy to come by, allowing people to purchase overly expensive houses with no down payment, (c) The people taking out mortgages were unaware of how dangerous an adjustable-rate mortgage is, particularly those where the rates automatically increase after a year or two. (d) There was - thanks in large part to republican deregulation - a decoupling of mortgage brokering from mortgage lending. So the people brokering the mortgage had an incentive to find unqualified borrowers, inflate (read: lie) about their ability to pay the loan back, and quickly sell off that mortgage to someone else, who has to eat the loss when the person defaults on the loan. Meanwhile, (e) republicans in the Fed and Congress prevented the government from doing anything to regulate this. The net result of all of this was a bubble that, when the downturn happened, burst.

    But that still doesn't explain why the economy tanked. A bad housing market drags the economy down, but a housing downturn is not sufficient to explain why the entire economy imploded. Why was this particular housing downturn different from all the rest? The answer is that for the first time in history, we started treating the housing market like the stock market. With credit default swaps ('financial weapons of mass destruction' is how Warren Buffet refers to them), hundreds or thousands of mortgages are packed together into an investment vehicle. The problem is that if even handful of people in that mortgage pool go bankrupt, the CDO starts losing money. If lots of them go bankrupt, it becomes worthless. This risk was not well understood and CDOs were rated AAA grade. So all of Wall Street suddenly began chasing CDOs like they were the end-all-be-all of investment, not realizing that a downturn would render them worthless.

    Worse, thanks to the Republicans in congress (and Phil Graham in particular) an important piece of New Deal era legislation was gone. The Glass-Steagal Act prohibited limited all companies to doing either commercial banking, investment banking, or insurance. Under Glass-Steagal, a company cannot, for example, be both an insurance company and a commercial bank. In essence, Glass-Steagal acted as a firewall between important sections of the economy, preventing a downturn in one from spreading like poison to the others. In 1999, Republicans passed (admittedly with Bill Clinton's help) the Graham-Leach-Bliley bill, which repealed Glass-Steagal. With Glass-Steagal gone, every segment of the financial world was prone to a downturn in any one area of the market.

    Worst still, the failure of the Federal Government to enforce anti-trust regulations - again, thanks to Republicans - meant that companies could get so large that their bankruptcy would endanger the whole economy. Thus "too big to fail" was born. If you ask me - and most people would agree - too big to fail means to big to exist.

    At every every along the way to the great recession, the Republicans pushed for the things that caused the meltdown.

  12. Re:There's Your Problem Right There on Tennessee Passes Bill That Allows "Teaching the Controversy" of Evolution · · Score: 2

    "Do they also refute the existence of non-beneficial mutations?" - No, they claim that mutations are always detrimental.

  13. Re:There's Your Problem Right There on Tennessee Passes Bill That Allows "Teaching the Controversy" of Evolution · · Score: 4, Informative

    "Surely even the staunchest of Creationists must acknowledge the so called "short-term" evolution that gives us the ability to manipulate plants or breed wolves into dogs. " - the standard creationist reply to this would be that they accept "micro evolution" (natural selection and adaption) but that they don't accept "macro evolution" (the ability for one species to evolve into another). Scientifically, there's no meaningful distinction between the two - it's only a difference of degree, not kind.

    Most creationists do not accept the existence of beneficial mutations. (They argue that adaption only brings out attributes that already have some preexisting genetic basis, and that no new beneficial alleles can be created)

  14. Re:Another reason on Eric Schmidt: UN Treaty a 'Disaster' For the Internet · · Score: 1

    That's entirely untrue.

    Austria and Serbia went to war over national pride. Nobody in either country thought it was going to be in their interests.

    Other big combatants went to war, even when it was not legally required of them, in order to prevent their allies from suffering a serious defeat: Russia to protect Serbia, Germany to protect Austria, and France to protect Russia. They didn't think it was in their interests for a war to start. At best you could argue that once war was inevitable, they entered it in order to protect their interests.

    England went to war because Germany invaded Belgium, whose neutrality had been guaranteed by England (and Germany) in the 1830s.

    Japan, safely on the other side of the globe, entered the war in order to pick off German territory in the Pacific. (This is probably the only country that your argument applies to). Romania and Portugal entered the war late in order to gain post-war territorial concessions. Greece tried to stay neutral, but was basically dragged kicking and screaming into it by the Allies.

    The United States entered the war because of Germany's repeated hostile acts towards the United States.

  15. Re:Another reason on Eric Schmidt: UN Treaty a 'Disaster' For the Internet · · Score: 4, Insightful

    BINGO! World War I started, in part, because in July 1914 Europe had in place an antiquated diplomatic framework that was not up to the task of solving a multilateral crisis. An entire month elapsed between the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and the outbreak of war. Until about the last week of that month, when the Russians mobilized, world war was eminently preventable through diplomacy. The UN and the Washington-Moscow hotline both serve as essential backstops to preventing another World War.

  16. Re:My take on Ask Slashdot: What Would Real Space Combat Look Like? · · Score: 1

    "The same will eventually be used in space ships when they become of the acceptable inner size. " - Even if you build partitions into the ship, are you going to install an independently functioning life support system in all of them? What about redundancy in the engines and navigation? Like I said above, we don't know how to build fault-tolerant space systems, and what you're proposing doesn't even come close to addressing it. And you're completely overlooking the point that it's economically (and therefore militarily) infeasible to put up large, fragile warships when tiny, expendable unmanned drones could do the same job at a small fraction of the cost.

    "Sure drones will be widely used but the other side will stop those drones using one drones. " - On the contrary, I think we can expect to see space used heavily in a-symmetric warfare -- advanced, industrial nations using spacial superiority to conduct wars against in impoverished nations that have little space capability. (See also: the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) Such nations will, by necessity, use largely ground based weapons to defeat space-based weapons.

  17. Re:My take on Ask Slashdot: What Would Real Space Combat Look Like? · · Score: 2

    Space being a vacuum would help if spacecraft cooled down via conduction. They don't. They cool down by emitting blackbody radiation, which all warm bodies do.

    On Apollo 13, they lost the heating system and within a day the craft had cooled to below freezing. Another two days and it would have become uninhabitable.

  18. Re:Read David Weber's Honorverse books on Ask Slashdot: What Would Real Space Combat Look Like? · · Score: 1

    I've read all the honoverse books and I like them a lot. But the question per-supposed a level of technology that exists today or will exist in the near future. The Honoverse books are set 2,000 years in the future for good reason. With the exception of life-prolonging techniques (Prolong in the books), we're not going to see invent of that technology anytime soon.

  19. My take on Ask Slashdot: What Would Real Space Combat Look Like? · · Score: 2

    I'm going to start from a few first principles here. First - and I don't think this one is seriously open to dispute - (A) space is an exceptionally harsh, unforgiving environment. Failure in any one of these systems: the hull, the carbon dioxide collectors, the heating unit - will render a space vehicle uninhabitable. A failure in either the engines or navigation system will likely lead to a ballistic course to nowhere.

    Now, (B) if the history of human space exploration is any indicator, we really don't know how to build fault-tolerant space systems at all. Almost any malfunction tends to produce a catastrophic outcome. Putting principles A and B together, any battle damage of any sort is likely to render the vehicle unsurvivable and kill all the crew.

    Now, consider the expense of launching anything of size. Remember, the ISS is the most expensive structure ever built by man. So the idea of putting large, fragile, massively expensive craft (where they can be shot down by space-capable ballistic or nuclear missiles, or damaged with a ground-based lasers) is a total non-starter.

    If you want to know what a real war in space looks like with our current level of technology, it's going to involve small, expendable space-based satellites hiding from ground-based things radar and weapons.

    And lastly, *any* space combat is going to dramatically increase the amount of space debris in orbit of earth (as China's test a couple years ago did, or the accidental irridium satellite collission did). Just a few incidents could turn dramatically render Earth's near space too dangerous for manned craft for a long time to come.

  20. Re:Flatly unconstitutional on Oklahoma Politician Wants To Tax Violent Video Games · · Score: 2

    They are different because you don't have a constitutional right to alcohol, tobacco, or imported goods. You do have a constitutional right to free expression, of which video games are one form.

  21. Flatly unconstitutional on Oklahoma Politician Wants To Tax Violent Video Games · · Score: 2

    Such a tax is flatly unconstitutional. If they can tax at 1%, what's to prevent them from taxing at 100%? Or 100,000,000%? The power to tax is the power to destroy [wikipedia.org], and there's no way this will survive a constitutional challenge.

  22. Re:Threat to Water Quality is Even Worse on Fracking Disclosure Rules Approved In CO · · Score: 1

    Or simpler than that - give the water samples to someone, put them in a car, and let them drive it to the nearest lab. Total cost: a few tanks of gas plus overtime.

  23. Re:Space elevator coming next? on Graphene Spun Into Meter-Long Fibers · · Score: 2

    You're thinking of carbon nanotubes, not graphene. Graphene is a layer of carbon only a few atoms thick, which (like carbon nanotubes) is electrically conductive, and (unlike carbon nanotubes) is also transparent. So if they can iron out the manufacturing issues, they can create transparent panels (like glass) that are electrically conduct. This has all kinds of useful applications for display panels (transparent ipads, anyone?), windows that function as TVs, monitors, solar energy collectors, etc.

  24. Re:totally misrepresents the Wen Ho Lee case on The Political Assault On Los Alamos National Laboratory · · Score: 1

    "Restricted Data is always classified. RD is a category of classified information, and can be of any classification level" - Are you just making this up? "Restricted" (a classification level no longer used) was equivalent to ''Sensitive but Unclassified' or 'For Official Use Only' - it does not require a separate hardened computer system, nor cryptographically secure storage.

    I have to question which government labs you've worked at, because they don't all deal in classified information. - I worked at the Army Research Laboratory and at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Both deal in classified material (but I did not)

    And, supposedly having worked at a government lab and knowing how all of this works, you would also know that even if some classified piece of information is in the public domain, someone with a clearance and knowledge of that information is not allowed to confirm the truth of said information, nor are they allowed to handle it however they feel. It's true that 'it's already out there' is not a legal defense to disseminating classified material (yet - there are a number of people who have suggested adding such a caveat into the law), but it does dramatically undercut the government's claims against Wen Ho Lee that his activities hurt national security.

  25. Re:totally misrepresents the Wen Ho Lee case on The Political Assault On Los Alamos National Laboratory · · Score: 1

    "I'm also struggling to comprehend how the case could have "fallen apart", because they found classified information in his house and his unclassified computer" - (A) The material they found was classified as 'restricted', not 'secret'. Having worked in multiple government laborities, I can tell you that restricted in this sense means confidential but not classified (in the same sense that social security numbers and other personal information are not to be made public) (B) Another LANL physicist, John Ricther, testified that "99 percent" of what they found in Lee's house was already in the public domain.