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Confidentiality Expires For 1940 Census Records

Hugh Pickens writes writes "In spring of 1940, the Census Bureau sent out more than 120,000 fact-gatherers, known as 'enumerators,' to survey the nation's 33 million homes and 7 million farms. Now as the 72 years of confidentiality expires, the National Archives website buckled under the load as the 1940 census records were released and 1.9 million users hit the archives servers in the first four hours the data went public and at one point, the Archives said, its computers were receiving 100,000 requests per second. Data miners will have the opportunity to pick and chip through more than 3.8 million digital images of census schedules, maps and other sociological minutiae. What will we learn from this mother lode? The pivotal year 1940 'marked the beginnings of a shift from a depressed peacetime to a prosperous wartime,' says David E. Kyvig, author of Daily Life in the United States, 1920-1939. The vast data dump, Kyvig says, will allow historians 'to look closely at particular communities and how people within them were doing in terms of employment, income and material comforts.' The 1940 census was the first Census that looked deeper into the details of much of American life. 'As we see how the country evolved over the subsequent 20 years, where we have aggregate census data ... we ought to be able to see more clearly how government spending bettered everyday life, confirmed Keynesian economic theory and revealed that, before the war, the New Deal did too little, rather than too much, to stimulate the U.S. economy."" Get all 18TB of it while it's hot.

311 comments

  1. correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just because the government was able to implement a Keynesian solution to that economic problem, does not mean that it holds the solution to every economic problem, for instance one that involves post - peak natural resource production.

    1. Re:correlation != causation by zippo01 · · Score: 1

      Agreed, If you look hard enough for something, you will find it everywhere. That's all this is. Someone looking for an excuse to promote huge government stimulus and spending. The difference here is WWII. Unless you have that special set of circumstances this data is meaningless to make that argument. Just in case you are wondering here is the 216 digit number: 884509627386359275033751967 943067599621731590401694134 434007629683591574337516791 197615733475195375920401694 343151239621353184932676605 800621596380716399501371459 954387507655892533875618750 354029981152863950711207613. How many get the reference...

    2. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      Keynesian economics didn't end the depression, eliminating many of the idiotic New Deal laws did.

      Of course bombing many of America's competitors into the stone age and bankrupting most of the others so it became the world's manufacturing base helped a lot too...

    3. Re:correlation != causation by MSTCrow5429 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      /.is really trolling today. I've seen multiple stories on the 1940 census records release, and zero mentioned this discredited economic theory.

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      Slashdot: Playing Favorites Since 1997
    4. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Keynesian economics did increase the total workforce participation, but your right about the destroyed industrialized countries being a part of it, so did the neo-colonialism of the late 19th and early 20th century. Now that we can no longer access such cheap resources, and don't have a significant advantage in manufacturing, we (and also Europe) are left with an inflated economic bubble that's collapsing. Simply put is that our total factor productivity is too low and resources too high, to be able to demand the amount of money that we expect from our labor. And though Keynesian economics might help by being able to tax unproductive consumption, it also hinges on the ability to target more productive investments, which is essentially trading consumer spending for capital expenditures. But even if you completely automate production of a thing, say for instance the mining of copper which now requires demolishing entire mountains, its not going to lower the price enough to make it as affordable as it used to be.

    5. Re:correlation != causation by mikael_j · · Score: 1

      It's from Pi and it crashed Euclid.

      --
      Greylisting is to SMTP as NAT is to IPv4
    6. Re:correlation != causation by supadjg · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's from Darren Aronofsky film "Pi", which has some great lines:

      "Hold on. You have to slow down. You're losing it. You have to take a breath. Listen to yourself. You're connecting a computer bug I had with a computer bug you might have had and some religious hogwash. You want to find the number 216 in the world, you will be able to find it everywhere. 216 steps from a mere street corner to your front door. 216 seconds you spend riding on the elevator. When your mind becomes obsessed with anything, you will filter everything else out and find that thing everywhere."

      "As soon as you discard scientific rigor, you're no longer a mathematician, you're a numerologist."

    7. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's impossible to say what would have happened without the war.

    8. Re:correlation != causation by Y2KDragon · · Score: 1

      Right, because it was the US that started that war by invading Poland....

    9. Re:correlation != causation by AHuxley · · Score: 2

      Political parties in Germany got funding to stop the "Communists" - US funds did flow into Germany.
      Small German political parties got funds for new trucks, rallies -
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar
      The US invests in people - Latin America, Asia, Africa - the cold war was full of strong friendly dictators, keep going back a few more years...

      --
      Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
    10. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      if war > destruction
      and destruction > loss of capital
      and loss of capital > lower productivity
      if war > non productive labor
      and non productive labor > lower productivity
      therefore war > lower productivity

      we can say that war created technological advances, but its not only war that create technological advances, but capital expenditures themselves that do. I could write a logic calculus expression for it, but I'm too lazy to.

    11. Re:correlation != causation by reve_etrange · · Score: 1

      It's impossible to say what would have happened without the war.

      So what?

      --
      .: Semper Absurda :.
    12. Re:correlation != causation by Gideon+Wells · · Score: 1

      WWII, and maybe WWI, were exceptions as the country was already in an extremely low production state. Sending all those men off to war, opening up the factories, it was like bringing god knows how many people off of unemployment/layoffs into turn-key operations ready to go immediately.

      We've since transitioned to where such factories and what-not are shipped over seas or sold as scrap instead of sitting. Wars are more forced overtime.

      --
      by Anonymous Coward: I, for one, welcome the shift from car analogies to pizza analogies. um.. overlords?
    13. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It was not discredited. I'm not sure where you're getting that statement from.

      "Advocates of Keynesian economics argue that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes which require active policy responses by the public sector, particularly monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle."

      Are you seriously going to try to argue that that isn't exactly what happened in 2009 as a result of decreasing regulation and increasing private sector control? The housing bubble busted because the banks got greedy. QED?

    14. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      I think reality is more complicated than that.

    15. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 2, Informative

      I will argue exactly that: what happened in 2009 was a result of government social engineering forcing quasi-businesses Fannie+Freddie to give loans to people who couldn't pay them back.

      If Keynsian economics "works" then why was the depression so long? Why do we still have unemployment above 8% after the "stimulus"?
      The answer is it doesn't work, and FDR+Obama made things worse.

      Every dollar the government spends is a dollar taken from the free market.

    16. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Insightful

      . Someone looking for an excuse to promote huge government stimulus and spending. The difference here is WWII.

      WWII was the hugest government stimulus and spending. It was government spending without limits, which at some point is what it took to get out of the first Great Depression. It helped that our competitors were all turned to rubble, but the Keynes effect was so great that we ended up with a recovery strong enough to allow us to help those competitors rebuild.

      Keynes is not only good for the economy, it's good for the soul.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    17. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Keynes is not only good for the economy, it's good for the soul.

      Really?? Before Keynes no country ever survived a depression?

    18. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      My understanding was that there was a low production state, partly driven by the protestant work ethic, to under consume and over save. Our economy wasn't designed around that paradigm, and people suffered as a result of the collapse of the economic system, as it created a negative feedback loop in the debt/interest based economic system. Of course the whole idea of compound interest in a financial system, which is tied to a physical world of finite limitations is absurd, but their solution was to tie individual psycho-social needs to consumer goods. Of course its easy to criticize in hindsight and harder to actually solve, but this is one of many examples of how greed has hindered social progress, stemming back to the founding fathers who also had to capitulate to private interests over the public good.

    19. Re:correlation != causation by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Not to mention after the war. The United States was the largest nation that had the least collateral damage. So the decades to follow while Europe and Japan was rebuilding the United States had a near monopoly on trade. The USSR was a threat however the way they implemented communism it created a situation where people didn't have that much motivation to build very competitive products, with a few exceptions mostly in weapons.
      Combined with people living on rations for years, a government forced saving program. When the war was over, people had money, they wanted to spend it and with the GI Bill a lot of these people went to college and got better educated. As well as their time in the war gave a lot of these people discipline that they wouldn't have gotten else ware. While some of the Stimulus spending helped, but not so much in terms of spending but in the fact that it rebuild and improved key areas of the infrastructure.

      Monopoly + (Disciplined + Educated) Work Force + With a lot of money saved up + Improved Infrastructure = Dominate Economy.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    20. Re:correlation != causation by nicolas.bouthors · · Score: 1, Funny

      Mandatory XKCD http://xkcd.com/552/

    21. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 2

      While it is true that every dollar spent by government equates to a dollar from the free market, but that doesn't mean that the ROI on the money is less in all government spending programs than the money would have been in the free market. More specifically government spending is used for positive externalities, where the aggregate ROI exceeds the individual ROI (like firefighting, roads, education). Part of the reason why we have higher unemployment, is that the work itself is becoming automated and less necessary. As total factor productivity rises and resources become more expensive, there will become many more unemployed and poor people, and it will have nothing to do with obama or FDR or even bush.

    22. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The crash wasn't caused by Freddie and Fannie alone. The private sector helped a lot spreading the chaos worldwide.

      Also your example is the exact opposite of what Keynes proposed: Government should invest into a depressed economy and cut back investments in times of plenty - Freddie and Fannie didn't invest, but gave away the money in a Bull market.

      Every dollar the government spends is a dollar taken from the free market.

      That's only the case if the money government spends is being held up somewhere and it doesn't reenter the money cycle. George W. Bush's tax cuts are a good example of slowing down the money cycle.

    23. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't get how government spending for a war, or government spending for infrastructure is different in any Keynesian way.

    24. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But the war stoked investment in Research & Development...

      I just don't understand why this part gets left out. With some urgency it seems both individuals and nations can do great things, but when they get fat and lazy... watch out. If we could just leave the "war" part out. Hm... how might that work? Oh well! can't figure it out. Is dancing with the stars on?

    25. Re:correlation != causation by jcombel · · Score: 5, Interesting

      not sure if trolling, or just revisionist

      fannie+freddie were not forced by law to to give subprime loans. they were compelled by the market forces, as propelled by de/unregulated banks (2004 lowered Debt Capital Rule, unregulated derivatives and CDO market, Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, DIDMCA, adjustable-rate mortages), which allowed the major institutions to over-leverage themselves while dealing out predatory ARMs.

      if fannie+freddie had not existed the 2008 FC would have still happened in the private sector alone. northern rock, countrywide, bear stearns, lehman brothers, merril lynch would have still all collapsed/required government takeover. the (de)regulatory framework simply allowed them astronomic profits at substantial risk, with the knowledge that any failure would cause systemic collapse, thus requiring government action, thus mitigating any risk to the personal wealth of the execs and traders.

      yes, fannie+freddie were headed by some fuckups that made decisions very similar to the large banks. but they were the decisions of private executives; these organizations were not compelled by law to seek inappropriate mortgages and then leverage them on the CDO market. they were compelled by high profits and low effective risk, just like the other speculative lenders.

    26. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so Fannie+Freddie caused the Euro problems ?

    27. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      I find the phrase "under consume and over save" to be hilarious. Obviously if you can make do with less, you can make do with less! Why consume when you don't really need to?

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    28. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      The unemployment is simply a reflection of the available workforce not matching the needs of the employers. There's less and less low-qualified jobs, and that's a good thing. The problem is that the workforce is 20+ years behind the needs. We don't need more unqualified people. We need people who are educated and smart -- not on paper, but in reality. It's incredibly hard to find qualified people for many positions. Yes, in the U.S.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    29. Re:correlation != causation by David+Greene · · Score: 2

      Every dollar the government spends is a dollar taken from the free market.

      No. Those dollars are used to hire contractors, etc., all from your "free market," which is just "the market." There is no separation between government spending and any other spending. It all goes to the same places.

      --

    30. Re:correlation != causation by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure what also helped was that the ability to produce overseas and import the crap instead of making it at home was severely limited due to the likeliness of transports being sunk.

      Want to get the economy back on track? Get it back home.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    31. Re:correlation != causation by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Just because the government was able to implement a Keynesian solution to that economic problem, does not mean that it holds the solution to every economic problem, for instance one that involves post - peak natural resource production.

      However, governments have dealt with this particular problem - scarcity - before through rationing.

      Also, to put it bluntly, the choice is between the government or the same bunch of monsters who brought us this latest economic meltdown to line their own pockets; in other words, incompetence or malice. Competence is no good if it's working against common good; a blind chicken makes for a better ally than a hungry lion.

      Nobody really likes the government, but the alternative is even worse.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    32. Re:correlation != causation by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If I didn't fear China's economic power yet, I would start right now.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    33. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Many people misuse the term "deregulation". It is most often (probably always) actually a change to an idiotic mix of regulations.

      The other day I watched that Enron movie, and the narrative about the California power crisis didn't make sense so I looked into it. Sure enough, the government had "deregulated" part of the market but was price setting for another part.

    34. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 2

      I will argue exactly that: what happened in 2009 was a result of government social engineering forcing quasi-businesses Fannie+Freddie to give loans to people who couldn't pay them back.

      Then you obviously have no idea what you are talking about. You didn't even get the date of the recession right. It started in September 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers.

      Although it's popular among Fox news viewers to blame the recession on the Fair House Act and political pressure to lend to minorities as you just did, the facts don't back up this argument at all. Minority lending in the pre-recession economy was something like 5% of the total mortgages. Even if every single one of those loans was made because of the FHA (they weren't), and even if every single one of those loans was bad (again, not true), it still wouldn't even come close to explaining why the housing market tanked or why the economy exploded. The housing market collapsed because (a) home prices were vastly overinflated, twice their inflationary-adjusted historical levels (b) credit was too easy to come by, allowing people to purchase overly expensive houses with no down payment, (c) The people taking out mortgages were unaware of how dangerous an adjustable-rate mortgage is, particularly those where the rates automatically increase after a year or two. (d) There was - thanks in large part to republican deregulation - a decoupling of mortgage brokering from mortgage lending. So the people brokering the mortgage had an incentive to find unqualified borrowers, inflate (read: lie) about their ability to pay the loan back, and quickly sell off that mortgage to someone else, who has to eat the loss when the person defaults on the loan. Meanwhile, (e) republicans in the Fed and Congress prevented the government from doing anything to regulate this. The net result of all of this was a bubble that, when the downturn happened, burst.

      But that still doesn't explain why the economy tanked. A bad housing market drags the economy down, but a housing downturn is not sufficient to explain why the entire economy imploded. Why was this particular housing downturn different from all the rest? The answer is that for the first time in history, we started treating the housing market like the stock market. With credit default swaps ('financial weapons of mass destruction' is how Warren Buffet refers to them), hundreds or thousands of mortgages are packed together into an investment vehicle. The problem is that if even handful of people in that mortgage pool go bankrupt, the CDO starts losing money. If lots of them go bankrupt, it becomes worthless. This risk was not well understood and CDOs were rated AAA grade. So all of Wall Street suddenly began chasing CDOs like they were the end-all-be-all of investment, not realizing that a downturn would render them worthless.

      Worse, thanks to the Republicans in congress (and Phil Graham in particular) an important piece of New Deal era legislation was gone. The Glass-Steagal Act prohibited limited all companies to doing either commercial banking, investment banking, or insurance. Under Glass-Steagal, a company cannot, for example, be both an insurance company and a commercial bank. In essence, Glass-Steagal acted as a firewall between important sections of the economy, preventing a downturn in one from spreading like poison to the others. In 1999, Republicans passed (admittedly with Bill Clinton's help) the Graham-Leach-Bliley bill, which repealed Glass-Steagal. With Glass-Steagal gone, every segment of the financial world was prone to a downturn in any one area of the market.

      Worst still, the failure of the Federal Government to enforce anti-trust regulations - again, thanks to Republicans - meant that companies could get so large that their bankruptcy would endanger the whole economy. Thus "too big to fail" was born. If you ask me - and most people would agree - too big to fail means to big to exist.

      At every every along the way to the great recession, the Republicans pushed for the things that caused the meltdown.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    35. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      What if the government and the "monsters" are the same people... now you just gave them permission to lock you in a cage if you don't cooperate with their plans.

    36. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Because there the Ipad3 now has a retina display! I hear that riding a harley davidson gets you laid!

    37. Re:correlation != causation by Hatta · · Score: 1

      not sure if trolling, or just revisionist

      Poe's law.

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      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    38. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      just thought of a funny thought:

      Protester: CORPORATIONS ARE MONSTERS!
      Mitt Romney: Monsters are people too my friend.

    39. Re:correlation != causation by aslagle · · Score: 4, Informative

      Wow....just....I don't even know how to respond to the sheer number of fallacies in that paragraph.

      Instead, I'll focus on the biggest whopper:

      Russia became paranoid and autocratic as a defensive measure,

      WTF?!? Are you seriously saying that Russia *wasn't* paranoid and autocratic until *after* WWII? Stalin was General Secretary of the Communist Party from 1922 on, and used that position to consolidate power. His centralized planning of the economy resulted in the famine that caused mass uprisings, which led Stalin to command the "Great Purge" in 1937-38.

    40. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not at all, one hallmark of a legitimate government is the capacity to resist any unfair compulsions and effect change upon it.

      So if they don't let me try to break out of the cage, then they're no longer legit.

    41. Re:correlation != causation by marcello_dl · · Score: 2

      Another war fought mainly outside US borders is the gulf war. How much stimulus did US get out of it? Maybe the war is a giant broken window fallacy?

      --
      ---- MISSING MISCELLANEOUS DATA SEGMENT --- [sigdash] trolololol
    42. Re:correlation != causation by JackieBrown · · Score: 2

      The USSR ... didn't want anything to do with the war originally, that is until Germany decided to invade them anyways.

      Tell that to Poland

    43. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Does that mean that R&D ceases without war? or that we have wars because we need R&D?

      R&D is a process whereby you try to reduce your capital and labor costs, wars require enormous amounts of these costs to be spent (and ultimately wasted).

      If you want more R&D, then advocate spending more on R&D, not on trying to start wars to prevent hedonism.

    44. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where's the funny part?

    45. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Really?? Before Keynes no country ever survived a depression?

      Pretty much, yeah.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    46. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 2

      Germany invaded Poland first, and the russians beat back the polish, and ended up in control of it as a result.

    47. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      So, what is your definition of depression?

    48. Re:correlation != causation by maple_shaft · · Score: 1

      Monopoly + (Disciplined + Educated) Work Force + With a lot of money saved up + Improved Infrastructure = Dominate Economy

      You forgot the variable: (Post war decimated industrial capacity for most of the world). That one is probably the most influential to the post war dominance of the US. They were quite literally the only major country in the war which didn't have its factories all bombed to oblivion.

    49. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Before Keynes no country ever survived a depression?

      If by "survived a depression" you mean "went to war and got its ass kicked", sure! Worked great for Germany, France, Rome and so on.

    50. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Funny

      Nah. I think the Chinese are going to be fine. I really don't see them being anything of a threat.

      There's enough stuff on Earth for everyone to live well. There's not enough stuff on Earth to sate the greed of the economic elites, though.

      So, the solution is clearly to round up the economic elites. They haven't really been doing much for the world for the past decade anyway. Seriously. All this increased productivity and increased profits and advanced technology and what do we get? We have to work until 70 instead of 65. Am I the only one who thought the technical revolution was going to lead to easier lives for people instead of harder lives and decreasing incomes?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    51. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0

      Another war fought mainly outside US borders is the gulf war. How much stimulus did US get out of it?

      There was a missing part of the formula. It can't be a war that is fought by right-wing ideologues in order to help out their sponsors in the energy industry and military contractors.

      People knew in their gut that the Gulf War was just a bogus exercise as was Iraqi Freedom. Nobody really got behind it the way they put their heart and soul (and money) behind WWII. Those others weren't wars so much as military exercises with casualties.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    52. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The autocracy was a result of constant existential threats, much like what occurred in the USA.

      I have a saying "terrorists need tyrants, like tyrants need terrorists", but it generally applies to the relationship fear and control.

      His centralized planning also led to the industrialization of the country, but there was a chicken and the egg problem where you have to move people from farming, and you dont have anything to sell but agriculture to build factories. Many non communist countries have had this same exact problem, even countries that recieve IMF development (often capitalist dictators), but we like to use it as fodder against the communists.

      its not as if our dictators are less dispicable than theirs (chile and iran come to mind), or that our development from agriculture to industry was less worse (irish famine) ( US slavery) (germ warfare).

    53. Re:correlation != causation by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Informative

      That would all make sense, if Stalin hadn't been planning all along to attack Germany, he just needed to wait longer for his forces to redeploy and his officer corps to rebuild after killing 90% of them. And yes, maybe he needed to ramp up production, but his military woes were really caused by the lapdog morons he put in command and his own micromanagement. I mean, he needed to dig up Zhukov after executing Tukhachevsky, the guy who pretty much invented the deep operations concepts that won the war for the Soviets. If the Red Army had had a reasonable tactical doctrine, as well as professional military leaders running the show, you can be certain that the Germans would not have gotten anywhere near as far as they did into the USSR. They may have even been repulsed.

      And let's not forget that the Red Army had absolutely no compunction about attacking the Finns during the Winter War. They even shelled some of their own troops to provide the reason for the invasion. The only reason Finland wasn't a Soviet Socialist Republic was the sheer incompetence of the Red Army staff, which is understandable because it was filled with lapdogs, and generals and colonels recently promoted from the lofty grade of lieutenant due to "staff rotation via gunshot to the back of the head".

      As for the USSR's economy, they had no concept of "sustainability" and "equality" in their economic focus, unless you consider that everyone in their sphere was equal in that they needed to do what Moscow said. If you were lucky, you'd be like Cuba, where you got subsidies so that you could continue to stay in power and piss off the Americans. That's nothing more than aid to prop up your friends, not economic equality. That's like saying we give aid to Pakistan because we think that they deserve equality and sustainability.

      There is also nothing new about Russia being paranoid and autocratic at any point. Russia has been paranoid and autocratic since before the reign of Ivan the Terrible, let alone during Stalin. They're still paranoid and autocratic, albeit to a lesser extent. The #1 reason that the USSR carved out its sphere of influence is that Stalin pretty much assumed that the Western powers would do what he would do, which is to say invade when they smelled weakness. And while Operation Unthinkable existed, it was a theoretical plan that was drawn up due to was assumed to be Stalin's next step (ie. invasion of Western Europe), not because they wanted to invade the USSR and take over. I should also point out there was a reason it was called "Unthinkable". For those who don't know, it was because they didn't want to do it, and they were pretty sure that they would either fail miserably or the victory would be at so terrible a cost that it would have been Pyrrhic at best.

      Of course, there were certainly many misunderstandings between the superpowers during the Cold War. And certainly the US got itself dirty playing in the mud with the Soviets, but I can't think of a single case where the US or the West legitimately considered an attack, or even a pre-emptive strike on the USSR that was not specifically for the purposes of defending against the gigantic Red Army presence in either Eastern Europe or their efforts to spread communist revolution around the world. As it stands, I think the fact there was no war is a testament to how both sides realized that it wasn't worth ending the world to spread their power via global war.

    54. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Not really, considering were already above carrying capacity, oil is just the temporary source of cheap energy and biomass.

    55. Re:correlation != causation by datavirtue · · Score: 1

      But you are missing the macro factors that affect private decisions (foodstamps). There is no way to validate the quoted statement since macro policy is saturated with factors that affect many many millions of private decisions, which in turn affect yet more private decisions. There is no vacuum with which to analyze private sector decisions save for the lowest levels.

      --
      I object to power without constructive purpose. --Spock
    56. Re:correlation != causation by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      forcing quasi-businesses Fannie+Freddie to give loans to people who couldn't pay them back.

      Fannie and Freddie didn't give loans, they guaranteed loans.

      Furthermore, they had standards, despite everyone's insistence this was all their fault. You ever heard of a "sub-prime loan"? "Sub-prime" specifically meant "fannie and freddie won't touch this". The only changes that were made to their standards was the elimination of the cash down payment requirement, which let people get a second mortgage to pay the down payment on the first.

      Where they went wrong was in buying toxic CDO shit (rated AAA!) full of the very same subprime loans they'd refuse to back in the first place, then using those CDOs as "leverage" to guarantee more loans. Once the economy cratered and everyone lost their job, they were bleeding from both ends: worthless CDOs on the asset side and unemployed formerly-prime borrowers going bankrupt on the obligation side.

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    57. Re:correlation != causation by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      The unemployment is simply a reflection of the available workforce not matching the needs of the employers

      The "unstaffing" (I don't think we have a word for the inability of a company to get workers, hmm) may be a reflection of that.

      The unemployment is a reflection of the fact that at the recessions worst, there were more than 5 job seekers for every job opening. Even if every last one of them suddenly attained enlightenment and became perfectly educated, only 20% would have gotten a job.

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    58. Re:correlation != causation by RogueWarrior65 · · Score: 1

      It's not the solution to any economic problem because it assumes the possibility of full employment which can't happen without severe inflation.
      That aside, the New Deal prolonged the effects of the Great Depression and while World War 2 bought the U.S. out of it, it was really due to lend-lease. Up until that point, legally the U.S. was constrained by the Neutrality Acts which prevented the U.S. from getting involved in the war.

    59. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ahhh....you've found the key flaw in Bushbama stimulonomics...competitors turned to rubble.

    60. Re:correlation != causation by datavirtue · · Score: 1

      It wasn't so much giving people loans who could not pay them back as over-valued assets (houses). Bankers knew that the homes were over-valued, yet they were also aware of their insulation from the issue. The system failed. Bankers had no incentive to assure that anyone could repay. This must be treated as a system with assurances that everyone has something to lose should a failure occur. Philosophical personal responsibility is not a practical consideration, let alone an argument for engineering such a system or analyzing its failure. I have a liar loan, I "lied" about my income (legally), I still make my payments although they have increased 20% (through taxes and insurance) since the inception of my loan. Liar loans are great for people who are self-employed, as 99% of loan companies want to see slave wages or no deal. Although, I will never use a mortgage again--it is a bad deal unless you pay it off in a few years.

      --
      I object to power without constructive purpose. --Spock
    61. Re:correlation != causation by starworks5 · · Score: 2

      "The overall political or political object is to impose upon Russia the will of the United States and British Empire...."

    62. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      I doubt very much that this 5-per-opening situation is across all the jobs. There are technical jobs where my first hand experience is: 0-per-opening. We can't find people, and we're not looking for Nobel prize winners either. Anyone who's qualified thinks they should be managers or something. There's so much "manager material" out there that they've forgot that there won't be anyone left to manage...

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    63. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      War is a waste of resources that destroys wealth and creates little new wealth through its industry. The postwar boom was largely the result of the huge rate of savings that occurred during the war and the switch to oil from coal (which is vastly more costly to use) in most areas of the economy.

    64. Re:correlation != causation by SumterLiving · · Score: 1

      Interview much lately? I've walked out of 2 interviews in the last 6 months. I'd say the people doing the hiring are smarter than the box of rocks I have out back, but just barely. Interview Walkout #1) Obviously a college degree and at least 3 years experience is highly desirable for a part time janitorial job???? All for $8.50 an hour/20 hours a week. Walkout #2) Obviously the 2 people interviewing me for a tech position needed to be text messaging throughout the 15 minutes I stuck around in the interview. Maybe the constant, "I missed that. Can you repeat what you said" was just part of the interview test? Yes, we need more qualified people but certainly not in the candidate field but in the hiring field.

    65. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      Russia has been paranoid and autocratic since before the reign of Ivan the Terrible, let alone during Stalin. They're still paranoid and autocratic, albeit to a lesser extent.

      To vet: their president is a self-admitted street thug. LOL.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    66. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So the people brokering the mortgage had an incentive to find unqualified borrowers, inflate (read: lie) about their ability to pay the loan back

      This^^. My wife and I were trying to buy a home just a year or two prior to everything blowing up. The lenders kept trying to tell us we could afford a home with a $250k to $350k price tag and they kept trying to get us to take an ARM. I remember that, at the time, I was working 60 to 70 hour weeks. So, my wife was actually handling all the paperwork and was seeing most of the houses with the real estate agent, bringing me along only for those she thought were really worth my time. Fortunately, my wife read all the documents carefully and also had lots of knowledge about this because her father was smart about these things. She steadfastly refused an ARM and we both knew there was no way we could afford the payment on a $250k+ house. However, the lenders never gave up trying to get us into a $250k+ house and refused to give us a fixed-rate mortgage. So, we just opted not to purchase.

    67. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      Huh? Where did the minority lending come into the discussion at all? People who couldn't pay the loans back were not only minorities, not by a long shot! I'd say there has been plenty of firmly middle-class whites who thought that just because someone would lend them $500k+ for a house in a city where $150k gets you what'd pass for a mansion, they should jump on it. Lack of reasoning skills of the sort you'd expect from an 8th grader isn't racially biased. There's plenty of those in D.C., yaknow, and they are plenty white allright.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    68. Re:correlation != causation by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      Don't forget Fannie/Freddie created only 10% of the loans in 2000-2007 and of those, only 3% were sub-prime. Private investment, with no gov't coercion, created and covered the rest. The reason they did this was pressure to expand vs other banks and to also bundle and sell the loans (profits in commissions) as decent investment devices (mortgage backed securities). It was the lack of due diligence on part of the originating banks, the financial companies putting together the securities and the outright betting by the financial companies that devices they were selling to their customers would fail, that contributed to the bubble. Fannie/Freddie had the relaxed rules in place since 1995 but it wasn't until bank deregulation of 2000 that the private banks got involved. Turns out their standards were more lax than the gov't originated loans.

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    69. Re:correlation != causation by Rockoon · · Score: 0

      Although it's popular among Fox news viewers to blame the recession on the Fair House Act and political pressure to lend to minorities as you just did, the facts don't back up this argument at all.

      The person you are responding to never mentioned the Fair Housing Act, or minorities. You bring it up because it is a red herring that allows you to pretend to defeat his argument.

      The fact is that it was the governments guarantees on home loans that for years increased credit availability for home buyers, increasing demand for homes, and thus inflating the prices. The government intervention distorted the market and nothing you are going on about disputes that fact (not like it is disputable anyways.) I am sure your non-FOX friends that like to create red herrings to support their political philosophy when discussing economic policy (of all things) will find some other logical political fallacy for you to believe in, so I am done with your politically motivated (your post = FOX blah blah Republicans blah blah) economic ignorance.

      Please come back and talk when you are able to separate economics from politics, but until then shut the fuck up because nobody cares that you hate republicans.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    70. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      "Where did the minority lending come into the discussion at all? People who couldn't pay the loans back were not only minorities, not by a long shot!" - For a while now, it's been standard Conservatives rhetoric that the recession was caused by the FHA and other minority-friendly lending programs. By extension, Conservatives can blame the democratic sponsors of these bills and deflect the blame from themselves.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    71. Re:correlation != causation by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      War is a broken window fallacy... except to the glazier, it's no fallacy. He makes his living replacing windows. The US economy got back in track because Europe's infrastructure was in shambles during and after the war, and ours wasn't.

    72. Re:correlation != causation by tepples · · Score: 1

      Obviously a college degree and at least 3 years experience is highly desirable for a part time janitorial job???? All for $8.50 an hour/20 hours a week

      Perhaps it's a company that promotes from within, and one would be working as a janitor or in the mail room while learning the company's processes for the skilled job to come later.

    73. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      Nice strawman argument. I never said the government didn't bear some responsibility for the housing downturn. The point, which seems to have gone completely over your head, is that housing market is cyclical, and downturns happen fairly regularly. What made this one different is that policies - put in place by Republicans - turned the economy into a tinderbox and all that was needed to cause a meltdown was one spark.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    74. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      No one wants a government so small it cannot handle externalities and things that only work and/or benefit in aggregate.
      But money is more effective in wealth creation when it's exchanged between two willing participants in free market trade, where successful parties have competitive advantages in producing their goods and services. So government spending should be minimized, not pumped up like Keynes suggests.
      Machines aren't taking our jobs - they're just changing what kind of jobs are available. Engineering and services are adding jobs, manufacturing needs less jobs. People used to have to be farmers, now they're pilots, cooks, and codemonkeys, and we're all better off.

    75. Re:correlation != causation by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      So? What would be the point of a military campaign but to impose your will on the enemy? Would you prefer it if it said, "To bring a better appreciation of democracy to Russia via conventional war and nuclear holocaust?"

      There was a legitimate concern that the USSR had both an ideology and the capability in the form of the gigantic Red Army, to finish the job the Germans started and completely conquer Europe. Remember, Communism is a revolutionary ideology. This is not a slander on communism, it's what they expected would happen and what they were working for. Add the fact that Stalin was a paranoid psychopath, and you have some legitimate concerns here.

      To *not* plan for your options in that case would have been inexcusable. Stalin was always the lesser of two evils, but that didn't make him a minor problem. Clearly, a diplomatic solution worked for maintaining the freedom of the Western democracies, but there is no reason it had to be that way.

    76. Re:correlation != causation by kaatochacha · · Score: 1

      The issue with wartime R&D is the sense of urgency creates faster discovery.
      You're more likely to produce with that threat hanging over you.
      Not advocating war for R&D, just pointing it out.

    77. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      The point is government interference in the market is a bad thing.
      I mentioned Fannie and Freddie in response to what caused the crash, not as a classic example of failed Keynsian policies. For that I offered FDR and Obama which you did not refute.
      That dollar gets pilfered by bureaucrats and then spent at their discretion. Their discretion is not as effective as that of the individual whose dollar was taken.
      What do you mean by the "money cycle"? (you'll have to excuse me, it's been a few years since I took my economics courses).
      I hope you don't mean "Bush's tax cuts were only for the rich! and they're sticking the money under their mattresses!"...

    78. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      Sorry about that - I was one part trolling for a discussion, one part making a point albeit poorly.

      Any institution should be allowed to over-leverage themselves. If government action was not an option, there would have been no mitigation of the risk involved, and businesses would not have made those bad decisions. Any that did anyways should have gone bankrupt.

    79. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      I think they bought/backed more than the 10% they may have originated - I seem to remember some statistic like 40% of US mortgages backed by either Fannie or Freddie.

      Either way, I'm more pissed about what happened after the bubble burst than who started it. Because if there was no option of government bailout from the beginning, I'll bet companies would have made less risky decisions. Now they know the government has their back and have no reason not to do the same things again.

    80. Re:correlation != causation by kelemvor4 · · Score: 1

      It's the number that exposes Barack Obama as the antichrist.

      http://www.scoreboard-canada.com/babylon-216obama.htm

    81. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      No. When I spend my dollars, they don't go to studying bovine flatulence or saving the brown-spotted slug or whatever they're up to these days.

    82. Re:correlation != causation by ciderbrew · · Score: 1

      My Teens!!!!

    83. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      That's a yet another pile of dung, I agree. Way too many HR people, whether by vocation, acting or happenstance, are so dumb that there needs to be a new scale of dumbness devised just for them. I've heard it all. People who want recent college graduates with 5+ years of on-the-job experience in a field that's normally closed to non-grads. People who only look at matching up buzzwords and acronyms they have no idea of. People who don't have any idea about what the job may entail. Etc. Sigh.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    84. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You don't take into account the congressional elections that forced austerity measures in the middle of FDR's work, stopping them in their tracks. The data on that is EXTREMELY clear, as is the historical consensus. At least, for those interested in doing such difficult labor as say, Googling.

      As for Obama, his stimulus had almost exactly the predicted effect in terms of percentage reduction of unemployment. The missing part of the equation is that they underestimated the severity of the unemployment percentage they would be facing prior to stimulus money reaching the public...something that was completely out of their control. Again, Google the percentage difference the stimulus was predicted to have versus the amount of difference between maximum unemployment decline and current unemployment. Obama's numbers look to be right on track.

      That's not to say government spending is the solution to every problem, as someone said earlier. It definitely isn't. I would argue it is only reasonable when the government is the spender of last resort (when banks are not loaning money into the economy), and when interest rates for the government are very low (which they are, in fact they are so low we are borrowing pretty much for free at this point).

      You're right about Fannie and Freddie being a big part of the problem. But it's more than JUST them. Not to diminish the awfulness of what they did, because it was awful. But, they couldn't have done it without the help of Moody's, Fitch, and Standard and Poor's, and the Ivy League Quants who came up with Mortgage Bundles that lumped junk in with more junk, and got rated AAA. They and the people who sold mortgages (not just Fannie and Freddie, but every bank in the country), made their money off of commissions, which are based upon volume sold, not quality of the loans (which was the government's problem to clean up). They couldn't have found backing for those mortgages without the AAA ratings from Moody's, Fitch, and Standard and Poor's failing utterly at their jobs (and making a fortune in the process). This was compounded by the credit default swaps, which are bets on top of bets.

      That's what caused the problem. Not just one party, not just one entity, but pretty much everyone fucking pretty much everything up royally. It doesn't fit on a bumper sticker, and it can't be used (truthfully) as an argument against either party in an election, which is why the whole story is so seldom told in the media by pundits.

      The free market is the best thing ever, but the free market depends on one simple but utterly important thing. People need some sense of what things are actually worth. When that happens, markets are incredible engines of wealth. When it doesn't happen, they turn into scams.

      I would argue that what we really need are fewer arguments about government vs the market (in reality, government spending acts pretty much like a combination of corporate and charitable spending organizations, not substantively very different from a large corporation with every citizen as a voting stockholder), and more arguments about how we can actually create (yes, through a combination of deregulation and regulation) the strongest, most transparent, best market environment we can.

    85. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      The 2009 was a poorly-veiled joke at the number in the parent post.
      No one was talking about minorities until you did. You can't shout "Racist!" and win a debate.
      a, b, c - yup.
      d - decoupling shouldn't matter. If government bailouts weren't the assumed outcome, no one would take the risk to buy such crappy mortgages, and then brokers wouldn't try to get people into loans they can't afford. (govt is the problem)
      e - Democrats are evil too :-P no real argument to refute here.
      I don't think there's anything wrong with repealing Glass-Steagal (and relish anytime part of the New Deal is repealed). If you were a curtain maker who wanted to start making blinds too, and then maybe got into stained glass - who is the government to say "no, you can only do x"?
      The only problem is when there's a true monopoly/oligopoly-collusion to set prices or start bullying other businesses around that you have a problem. But there are lots of banks, and so this doesn't apply. Damn those Republicans for enforcing the laws as written! :-P
      Ironically it is the government's heaps of regulations that bully around small banks, because only the big banks can afford the teams of lawyers needed to wade through the red tape.

    86. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      "Bankers had no incentive to assure that anyone could repay." - yes. I contend that this is because the bankers buying the mortgages were under the assumption that the taxpayer would bail them out if things went down. Unfortunately for us, they were right.

    87. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      "If government bailouts weren't the assumed outcome, no one would take the risk to buy such crappy mortgages, and then brokers wouldn't try to get people into loans they can't afford. ' - In order to make that conclusion, you're assuming that all the players in the mortgage market acted rationally and with a full and complete understanding of what was going on and what was going to happen. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even Alan Greenspan (the biggest proponent of this line of thinking) has said he got it wrong.

      "I don't think there's anything wrong with repealing Glass-Steagal (and relish anytime part of the New Deal is repealed). If you were a curtain maker who wanted to start making blinds too, and then maybe got into stained glass - who is the government to say "no, you can only do x"?" -- if your company's failure would cause the entire economy to crater, then as the ultimate arbiter of systemic risk, it's most definitely the government's job to stop you. Just as it is their job to say 'no, you can't get any bigger" when companies want to merge or expand, or "you need to be broken up" when they are too large.

      "The only problem is when there's a true monopoly/oligopoly-collusion to set prices or start bullying other businesses around that you have a problem." - So you don't find "too big to fail" to be a problem in-and-of-itself (even if there is no predatory monopolism)? If that's the case, then frankly you have not learned the key lesson of the current recession.

      "Ironically it is the government's heaps of regulations that bully around small banks, because only the big banks can afford the teams of lawyers needed to wade through the red tape." -- I can't speak to all banking regulations, but I can say with confidence that if the same company had to broker and lend the mortgage (if the government had prohibited decoupling them) then the housing market downturn would have been much less severe.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    88. Re:correlation != causation by Rockoon · · Score: 0

      I never said the government didn't bear some responsibility for the housing downturn.

      Nobody said that you didn't. Is this an attempt to hide the weakness of your actual argument by sprinkling irrelevant facts that bare no relevance to the discussion at hand? Nobody gives a shit if you said it or not, and nobody claimed that you did or did not because its fucking meaningless.

      The point, which seems to have gone completely over your head, is that housing market is cyclical, and downturns happen fairly regularly. What made this one different is that policies - put in place by Republicans - turned the economy into a tinderbox and all that was needed to cause a meltdown was one spark.

      The bullshit point you made does not trump simple economics. Supply and demand. The government greatly interfered with the supply of housing credit, causing a bubble many times bigger than is natural. Until you admit to and address this simple fact, you are just blowing partisan political smoke (the fact that you dont like Republicans has nothing to do with the housing bubble, idiot.)

      So you feel the need to blame the Republicans for the housing bubble, but you don't even have a fucking clue what caused the bubble to be so big. Obvious partisan rationalizing bullshit is obvious. You are throwing blame without even knowing what, exactly, was the problem. What a fucking tool you are.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    89. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      You're a fucking idiot. The housing downturn was small (relative to the rest of the economy) and probably inevitable. The economic meltdown that followed was big and entirely preventable. Go read a book. Idiot.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    90. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      I assume businesses act in their self interest, and if they don't they should get bankruptcy (not in their interest). I have no problem with stupid people/businesses doing stupid things as long as I'm not paying for it.

      No one company's bankruptcy would cause the entire economy to crater. GM was the largest car manufacturer in the country (world?) and they went through it - 4th largest bankruptcy in history. Lehman went through it. Other businesses buy up the pieces and life goes on. I would never ascribe to the government the role of "ultimate arbiter of systemic risk". They can arbitrate contract disputes and punish fraudulent activity but they are not the overlords of the whole market.

      Correct. "too big to fail" was a lie told to congressmen (and their constituents) to give taxpayer money to companies in trouble as opposed to them taking responsibility for bad decisions.

      What gives you confidence in that assertion? Whether or not the lender brokered the mortgage itself, they would not own a mortgage with excessive risk if they didn't think the government was their backstop. (unless they were irrational and/or made bad decisions, in which case, let them go bankrupt!)

    91. Re:correlation != causation by CSMoran · · Score: 1

      Yes, and the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact never existed, right?

      --
      Every end has half a stick.
    92. Re:correlation != causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because excess supply means no demand for labor, which means unemployment.

      A national economy isn't like a household. If for example Apple manufactured 10 iPhones for ever man woman and child in the world every year than they'd be stupid to not cut that production. Cutting production means firing line workers, closing factories, etc. Now if every consumer electronics firm is doing the same thing, you get a bad situation.

    93. Re:correlation != causation by lacaprup · · Score: 0

      A whole lot of garbage here. 16 million... that's 16 million Americans fought in WWII (U.S. population was 135 million at the time). You were able to take them out of the normal workforce and put them into a the military service. Every one of them that died or became disabled was one that didn't go back into the workforce when the war was done. Let's add on to this that U.S. was the only major industrial economy that didn't have their land turned into a pile of rubble by WWII. In the immediate post WWII era U.S. GDP was 25% of world-wide GDP! That is what saved the U.S. economy, not Keynesian pipe dreams. Unless, of course, you're saying that Keynesian policy is actually meant to foment the death of millions upon millions of people world wide so that the country who impleaments it is the only one left standing at the end. I think I'll take Milton Friedman's view of liberty and prosperity instead.

    94. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      "I assume businesses act in their self interest, and if they don't they should get bankruptcy (not in their interest). I have no problem with stupid people/businesses doing stupid things as long as I'm not paying for it." - It's easy to say that business that don't act rationally should go bankrupt. But what do you do when you have ordinary people - people without a complex understanding of the mortgage market - who were pressured into purchasing dangerous financial instruments (adjustable rate mortgages) when fixed rate mortgages would have been much better (and not knowledgeable enough to know better)? Or to lenders that were outright defrauded by mortgage brokers who lied to them about the counterparty's ability to pay it back? The government absolutely has a responsibility to prevent these kinds of abuses.

      "No one company's bankruptcy would cause the entire economy to crater." - That is provably false. One insolvent bank can trigger a run on all banks, even solvent ones. That's what caused the panic of 1837, the panic of 1893, and especially the panic of 1907. The situation today, when financial institutions touch basically every other sector of the economy, is even more prone to collapse. You said "Lehman went through it" as if that somehow makes it OK. You forgot what came next. After Lehman Bros. imploded, it caused Bear Sterns to implode, and would have caused Bank of America and AIG to go down next had the government not stepped in. (And Lehman, the biggest bankruptcy in history, was dwarfed by both, by the way. Lehman's market cap was $50 billion market versus $69 [2012] for AIG and $102 [2012] for BoA)

      "Other businesses buy up the pieces and life goes on." - We've seen what happens when you let everything implode and trust the market sort it out. It was called the Great Depression. Yup, I couldn't imagine why anyone would object to letting that happen again.

      "I would never ascribe to the government the role of "ultimate arbiter of systemic risk". They can arbitrate contract disputes and punish fraudulent activity but they are not the overlords of the whole market." - What planet are you from? The US Government has been doing just that since - at the very least - the creation of the Fed in 1913, and arguably since the creation of the Second Bank of the United States in 1816. If you took a poll of 100 ordinary people on the street "Should the government intervene in the market to prevent depressions from happening?" you'd probably get nearly 100% of people agreeing to the idea, because it's common sense.

      ""too big to fail" was a lie told to congressmen (and their constituents) to give taxpayer money to companies in trouble as opposed to them taking responsibility for bad decisions." - maybe that congressman realized that, as politically unpalatable as bailing out the bad actors was, letting another great depression happen was even less politically palatable.

      "What gives you confidence in that assertion? Whether or not the lender brokered the mortgage itself, they would not own a mortgage with excessive risk if they didn't think the government was their backstop. (unless they were irrational and/or made bad decisions, in which case, let them go bankrupt!)" -- If the people brokering the mortgages had to own them and eat any losses caused by them, they would never have made those bad loans in the first place.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    95. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      What causes (research, etc) would you voluntarily donate those dollars towards?

    96. Re:correlation != causation by BitwiseX · · Score: 1

      First DVD I ever bought, and still my favorite movie :)

    97. Re:correlation != causation by br00tus · · Score: 1

      That would all make sense, if Stalin hadn't been planning all along to attack Germany, he just needed to wait longer for his forces to redeploy and his officer corps to rebuild after killing 90% of them.

      This is completely inane and ahistorical. First off, Germany invaded Russia (and Holland, and France, and Belgium, and so on), as everyone knows. Every move publicly and privately had Stalin trying to avoid war with Germany. You could say that Russia was trying to foment rebellion in Germany, like the naval mutinies at the end of World War I, or the Spartacus uprising at the end of World War I etc. Especially during the Third Period - but a year after the Enabling Act in Germany (1933) this policy was quite over. And the idea of a Russia invasion of Germany was ludicrous - not only due to going against Germany, but how the rest of Europe would have probably sided with Germany prior to Hitler marching into Poland.

      As far as the officer corps - during the Russian Civil War (where the US intervened and attacked the nascent USSR) and after, the communists had to make due with any experienced officer who didn't join the whites. By the late 1930s, it had more of a chance to use loyal, trained officers.

      And yes, maybe he needed to ramp up production, but his military woes were really caused by the lapdog morons he put in command and his own micromanagement. I mean, he needed to dig up Zhukov after executing Tukhachevsky, the guy who pretty much invented the deep operations concepts that won the war for the Soviets. If the Red Army had had a reasonable tactical doctrine, as well as professional military leaders running the show, you can be certain that the Germans would not have gotten anywhere near as far as they did into the USSR. They may have even been repulsed.

      You can call loyal officers "lapdogs", but that is exactly what was desired. Stalin didn't want his officers putting bombs under his table like German officers did to Hitler. As it was, Stalin was not thorough enough in purging bad officers and appointing loyal officers, as lieutenant generals like Vlasov switched sides and began fighting for the Germans. You say Russia did not have "professional military leaders running the show". To a great extent this is true. More importantly it was known back then - to Stalin, to Molotov, to the Politburo and Central Committee. They were quite aware they did not have a large pool of loyal, experienced, professional officers. But they also knew they could not conjure these types of people up with magic wands.

      And let's not forget that the Red Army had absolutely no compunction about attacking the Finns during the Winter War. They even shelled some of their own troops to provide the reason for the invasion. The only reason Finland wasn't a Soviet Socialist Republic was the sheer incompetence of the Red Army staff, which is understandable because it was filled with lapdogs, and generals and colonels recently promoted from the lofty grade of lieutenant due to "staff rotation via gunshot to the back of the head".

      That Russia shelled its own troops to start the Winter War is an old canard. The Winter War was a good thing for Russia - it was a disaster, but it was an impetus to changes in the army that would not have been made if the Winter War had not happened. The army that fell apart in the Winter War was much better prepared by the time Operation Barbarossa happened.

      You go on and on for many paragraphs...there are errors in those as well but I'll stop here.

    98. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      None. You want to force me to?

      I only use my dollars for things I need/want, and my church. If there's a demand for something, a company will put the R&D into it.

      You're thinking of non-marketable research, a.k.a. useless research. You're going to quote the Apollo program at me. I'll say it's always been in the interest of the defense of the country to have an edge in space, and I have no problem with NASA. Maybe you'll cite the internet. What's your next example? (I truly am curious to see if there's different research outside of DARPA/NASA that I can come around on and "see the light" as it were on government-funded research).

    99. Re:correlation != causation by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      That would all make sense, if Stalin hadn't been planning all along to attack Germany, he just needed to wait longer for his forces to redeploy and his officer corps to rebuild after killing 90% of them.

      This is completely inane and ahistorical.

      It certainly did not happen, of course, but it is hardly inane. I will admit that is that it is controversial, but is far from unsupported by available facts. As it did not actually happen, the reality of what was actually planned will remain a what-if.

      Still, actual Red Army deployments along the western border in 1941 tended to match the existing plans for an offensive, rather than a defensive action. Troops massing for an offensive action do not deploy in the same ways as for a defensive action, and in fact there is little evidence in Soviet archives of a defensive plan to begin with.

      Now, Stalin (and everyone else) knew that Germany was going to attack the USSR. Hitler had only been writing book and speeches on the subject since the 1920s. If anything, I can't blame Stalin for considering an offensive under those conditions. I do believe that, had an offensive been planned, it would have been more an attack to ensure survival than any sort of ideological struggle.

      Whatever the reason for 1941, we do know Stalin was not shy about working to invade countries that posed little direct threat to the USSR. Poland, the Baltics and Finland were standard issue land-grabs. Once could have called those defensive actions only through the most paranoid mental processes. Of course, that does describe Stalin.

      Note, the mere fact that the USSR attempted to reach agreements, culminating in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is meaningless. Only a fool would have attempted an offensive war with Germany with the Red Army in the state it was in at the time. It is quite clear Stalin knew this and Soviet government communications make this clear. The USSR was playing a game of staying neutral as long as possible before a war could start either on the part of Germany or by Soviet offensive.

      You can call loyal officers "lapdogs", but that is exactly what was desired. Stalin didn't want his officers putting bombs under his table like German officers did to Hitler.

      As far as the officers go, while there were certainly many former tsarist officers in the Red Army, but there is no evidence that they were disloyal to the USSR en masse, certainly not in the percentages executed. There is little evidence that most of them were disloyal even to Stalin himself personally. The Russian Civil War had been over for over a decade, and no one had any doubts about which side won.

      There is some evidence that makes it unclear what happened with Marshal Tukhachevsky, whether the claims of disloyalty were fabricated or at least partially true, but in no way was there any real judicial process to get at the truth. In fact it seems that things like his efforts to create a tank corps (instead of using good old cavalry) were held against him in his trial by one of his lapdog colleagues and called "wrecking". Read about the show trials for the military some time. You will not be able to avoid shaking your head at the idiocy being spewed to make a political lynching sound even remotely plausible.

      Without a doubt I'd say that "lapdog" is a very good description of these officers he allowed to remain, as the ones remaining almost universally were involved in the actions that consigned their colleagues not merely to removal from the service, but execution. When you retain officers, not for their skills, but for their sycophantic loyalty, you get what you deserve. It's amazing to me that he managed to avoid losing Moscow. In fact, the only reason I believe he did avoid that fate was because he figured out something that Adolf Hitler never did: he learned to stop micromanaging (as much). Paranoid psychopath, yes. Delusions of grandeur, no.

      One of the lapdogs Stalin

    100. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Haha, I share your opinion. Would you pay a yearly fee (like be a "member") to a pharmaceutical company to get discounts on future drugs, etc?

    101. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      heh sorry if I put words in your mouth - I so rarely encounter a like-minded soul here :)

      I might pay such a fee - sounds analogous to Sam's Club almost. But ordinarily the pharmaceutical company would reinvest some of their profits to discover future drugs, so they could make more profits on those. (and do the same thing again - everybody gets new medicines, yay!)

    102. Re:correlation != causation by LDAPMAN · · Score: 1

      You don't have a realistic view of history if you don't see that your life IS much easier than it would have been at any other point in time. All this technology and wealth does make your life easier than that of your ancestors. You may not like the elites but many got where they are by doing things to make the world a wealthier,healthier, easier place.

    103. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1

      Before I reply, let me just say thank you for continuing the discussion. I love debating these things. You bring up a lot of good points.

      I wholeheartedly agree with your first paragraph, with perhaps one caveat. I agree it is the government's duty to prevent (or at least punish and thereby deter) fraud on the part of brokers in their dealings with individuals and lenders. My caveat would be that we have to draw a line somewhere between when someone is dumb and/or making a bad decision, and when a broker is misleading them. If someone wasn't told the difference between an ARM and a fixed rate, or pushed into getting an ARM, that would be misleading and shouldn't be allowed. But if someone is shown the difference and still picks the ARM, they need to accept the consequences when the rates jump. Ideally something this simple would be grasped by everyone, and no one would buy ARMs and they'd stop being offered. I think the schools have failed us here, but that's another topic.

      FDIC (one New Deal era item I'm still open to supporting) should prevent bank runs nowadays. I don't recall reading about any mass withdrawals in 2008.
      If AIG and BoA had made that many bad decisions too that they would have failed, then so be it. Remember - I'm not sold yet on "too big to fail" so saying (right though you are) that more big banks would have been sold off piecemeal with their management shamed and fired - doesn't really sound like a bad thing to me.

      I must be from planet Jefferson :) I don't want to sound too much like a Ron Paul nut, but I don't think the Fed should have been created, and I think we should still be on the gold standard. Just because the government has leaped at the chance to be our overlords, does not mean that they should be. Also there are a lot of people that like Justin Beiber - that doesn't make him good, or common sense.

      I agree with your assessment of the thinking of the congress, but disagree that they alone must have acted to save the economy. I think if you let them go through bankruptcy, sell off the good parts of the businesses, and discredit/fire the bad actors, within a year you'd have recovery. Notice how the recoveries from the panics of 1837, 1893, 1907 you mentioned were all much quicker than both the great depression and the current recession, when Keynsians made the policy.

      And if the people buying the mortgages had to eat losses and not rely on a bailout (and also weren't defrauded by brokers, which I agree the government should act to ensure) they would not buy bad mortgages from brokers. Brokers will not make loans they can't sell.

      I like the quote in your sig btw.

    104. Re:correlation != causation by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      I doubt very much that this 5-per-opening situation is across all the jobs.

      The government publishes the number of people unemployed and the number of job openings. I'm sure if you drilled down hard enough you could say "OMG there were 5000 jobs with absolutely nobody qualified!". In 10/2009 there were over 15 million people (official stats) wanting them. That same month, there were somewhere between 2.3 and 2.5 million job openings. Sure. Maybe a few million people could have gotten jobs if only they were trained right. The rest, though, were SOL.

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    105. Re:correlation != causation by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Right, but patents are a problem as well. If you want companies to do basic research I think a business model like that may be the way to go.

    106. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      All this technology and wealth does make your life easier than that of your ancestors.

      For most people, that is very much not true. A couple of generations ago, a single-breadwinner family, with the father working at a blue collar job, could support a family, buy a nice house in a nice neighborhood, send his kids to school, have health care for the whole family, and retire with a fixed-income pension.

      You will not be able to do that. Your wife (if you have one) will have to work. That 401k, will not be worth anywhere near the fixed-benefit pension plan. The health insurance you are able to get (assuming none of your family has a pre-existing condition) will cover less. If your wife should be stricken with a serious chronic illness, you will almost certainly become bankrupt, or lose your house.

      All this technology and wealth does make your life easier than that of your ancestors.

      Tell that to the 62 year-old woman who is cleaning hotel rooms because her husband was laid off when Bain Capital did a leveraged buyout of his company and closed the plant, who (if the Republicans budget should become law) will have to continue to clean hotel rooms until she is 70.

      Oh, her husband's pension? When Bain took the company to bankruptcy, the pension fund was considered by the bankruptcy court to be an asset of the corporation instead of the retirees, so that money went to pay Bain's "management" fees, and there will now be no pension.

      There is no question that for most people of working age today in America, their quality of life is significantly less than that of their parents, and the outlook for their children is worse still.

      For the economic elite however, the picture has never been rosier. They have enjoyed an average 300% increase in income since 1995. Unfortunately, they make up .01% of the population. (This is not a made-up number, by the way).

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    107. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Want to get the economy back on track? Get it back home.

      Absolutely. For almost all of our history up to Ronald Reagan, we had a very tough foreign trade policy. Tariff's up the wazoo if you wanted to make your product in third-world slave factories.

      It's no accident that Reagan's de-regulation of foreign trade coincides neatly with our 30 year economic decline as a nation.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    108. Re:correlation != causation by tibit · · Score: 1

      I doubt it's just 5000 jobs with no qualified applicants. I'd think it'd be in the 10s of thousands at least, if not 100s of thousands...

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    109. Re:correlation != causation by Raul654 · · Score: 1

      "I don't recall reading about any mass withdrawals in 2008." - There weren't any bank runs in 2008, but there have been before that (Thus proving that one company can, in fact, tank the economy) 2008, like 1929 and unlike 1837/1893/1907, was a market crash, not a banking crash.

      "Notice how the recoveries from the panics of 1837, 1893, 1907 you mentioned were all much quicker than both the great depression and the current recession, when Keynsians made the policy." - I'm sorry, but you really couldn't be more wrong on the history here. The whole reason the Great Depression was so bad is because after the market crashed, the Fed raised interest rates and tightened the money supply, so that by 1933 the amount of money in circulation had dropped by 35%. This is the exact *opposite* of a Keynesian approach. (Even Milton Friendman - about as far from a Kenysian as you can get - pinned the blame on the Fed's contractionary policy in his A Monetary History of the United States. Ben Bernake, whose entire academic career centered on studying the causes of the Great Depression, famously apologized to Milton Friedman in 2002 on behalf of his predecessors, admitting that they made the depression much worse by using a contractionary approach) Futhermore, in 1936, as the Great Depression was starting to turn around, Congress began cutting back on New Deal spending, and the economy went into a double-dip.

      "I think if you let them go through bankruptcy, sell off the good parts of the businesses, and discredit/fire the bad actors, within a year you'd have recovery. " -- That's a bit like saying that if the car that hit us had been going 30 mph faster, we'd have had a faster recovery. You think bad companies should have been left to fail, so you're rationalizing that letting them fail would have made the economy bounce back faster. It's wishful thinking. The truth is in 2008, when the CDO market froze (thus, under the mark-to-market accounting rules, rendering all CDOs worthless), if the government hadn't stepped in and started buying them, a huge chunk of wall street would have gone bankrupt. In turn, all of their subsidiaries would have shut down. People would have gotten laid off, and in turn would stop spending. Aggregate demand would have plummeted. More businesses would have gone under. It's much more likely we'd be facing 25% unemployment (instead of 11%) and a 10+ year to recovery (We're only in the fourth year of the current recession but it's starting to look better) It's already happened once (the great depression) and you haven't made any case for why it would be any better this time around. (In fact, since the economy is much more integrated and interconnected, it would almost certainly be far worse today than the Great Depression)

      "I don't think the Fed should have been created, and I think we should still be on the gold standard" - yea, that's the problem there. Monetary policy might not be perfect, but the idea of abandoning it and going back to the gold standard is like saying that drills hurt, so we should abandon modern dentistry. Frankly, it's silly.

      --


      To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
      --E.C. Stanton
    110. Re:correlation != causation by LDAPMAN · · Score: 1

      Your asseesment may be correct for a small subset of the american population but you are absolutely wrong that middle class nirvana and fixed-income pensions were the norm a generation ago. It's just not true. Remember the "war on poverty"? Remember the Great Depression? Bad things happen to good people and always have. Relative wealth moves around as society and industry changes but over all we ARE working less, eating more, and living longer healthier lives. The "poor" of today are much better off than the poor of 30, 60, or 100 years ago.

      As for the "economic elites", it's always been the same. They have always been there and will always be there.

      Stop whining and do your best to join them. Thats the way the world becomes a better place.

       

    111. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Your asseesment may be correct for a small subset of the american population but you are absolutely wrong that middle class nirvana and fixed-income pensions were the norm a generation ago.

      Now you know perfectly well that I didn't mention anything about any "middle class nirvana". You want to have a conversation or do you want to bullshit?

      and fixed-income pensions were the norm a generation ago

      A far greater percentage of the population enjoyed fixed-income pensions a generation ago. At the time my father was in his working prime, he was one of 30% of American workers who belonged to a union, and it wasn't only union members that had fixed-benefit pensions. Both of my uncles, my dad's brothers, were workers at a non-union plant that built the lamps for (among other things) baseball stadiums, and they got fixed-benefit pensions (because that plant had to compete with union plants to get workers). Of course, this was all before Ronald Reagan declaring Republican war on unions and his removal of the significant tariffs that had been part of the US trade policy since the country was founded.

      Home ownership numbers have not changed all that much, but the difference is that a significant number of homeowners, actually owned their homes. That means no mortgages. True ownership. Of my friends, who are a pretty prosperous bunch, my wife and I are the only ones who own our house outright and don't have either a mortgage, equity loan. Same thing with car loan. My dad, a factory worker, was able to buy a new car every four years for cash (with a trade-in of course).

      The number of households where the mother and the father both work has increased by almost triple, and even then, household incomes have gone down. If there were the same percentage of single-breadwinner families today, according to one economist, household incomes would be down more than 30%.

      Sure, we've got cell phones. We've got computers. Lots of gizmos. But for the most part, they have made us more productive more than they've improved our quality of life. So we're worth more to our employers, but our employers are worth less to us. My father and mother, middle class, single-breadwinner family, were able to send me and my sister to college (with a little scholarship help for me) without incurring school loans. Today, hardly any kids graduate without a loan hanging over their heads. And not just a little loan, but sometimes the equivalent of several years of their first job. Many of them will not be free of their college debt until they are 30 years old.

      And the increasing income inequality has negatively affected almost every single measure of a society's health. There's a great TED lecture and presentation about what happens in a society when income inequality goes beyond a certain point (which we have passed). I'm too lazy to find it and link it, but it's extremely persuasive that we're a lot worse off their our parents and our kids will be worse off yet.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    112. Re:correlation != causation by jcombel · · Score: 1

      WHOA WHOA WHOA

      look here, pal, when i make a counterpoint around on the internet, i expect a stiffly ideological rebuttal, not any of this earnest bullshit

      srs though, i agree with you on this to a certain point. i also think that every business should be allowed to do most any retarded thing with their budgets that they want to, for their own reward and their own risks.

      where we diverge, i think, from reading your other posts, is that you might believe that businesses should be able to get as large as they want, and then also fail. there is truth to the phrase, "too large to fail." the truth is, that if these banks had failed, this would have (directly) lead to the banks and other institutions that they owed money, to also fail. this would have meant that the institutions that held most of america's money (both businesses and private citizens) would fail, and not have enough money to pay out to citizens withdrawing their funds. then a run on the banks, which leads to many more banks failing as all of their capital is being withdrawn by scared citizens, increasing the problem to the point of, well, great depression.

      this isn't an exaggeration. in two days in sept 2008, WaMu (largest savings and loan), and wachovia (4th largest financial institution) had a combined $21 billion bank run: businesses and citizens withdrawing their money and stashing it. if the government hadn't taken swift action, we'd be having a very different conversation right now. there aren't many things i thank the bush administration for, but this is one of them. since i'm made of point of my distaste for bush just now, i should make very clear i don't blame his admin for the crisis. the 2008 situation was the result of very hard work by banking execs, and nearly thirty years of hodgepodge financial regulations by every congress and president that sat.

      i'm not saying the bailout was a good thing all over. i wished that the concept of the economy being strong enough to withstand a run on the banks without a lost decade (or three) was a realistic one, but it wasn't.

      i think i'm getting chatty and off-topic. where i think you're right: the bailout laid the framework for businesses to repeat the same mistakes with the notion that they can forever get away with it, profiting when their luck is good, bailed out by the taxpayer when it isn't.

      the solution, though, wasn't to deny a bailout, instead, it was to use regulation to limit the size of businesses in an industry (in this case, finance industry) to stop them from growing so large that their failure could destabilize the national economy. to catchphrase it, "don't say there isn't too large to fail, prevent there from being too large to fail.

    113. Re:correlation != causation by LDAPMAN · · Score: 1

      You make some perfectly accurate and valid points but your still basing your comparison on a very small sample. If life had been that good for most people there wouldn't have been a need for Social Security and Medicare. Debt is a serious issue both for individuals and governments. However, I think what your commenting on is mostly the pain that comes with disruption as society changes. It is not, yet, an indication that society is doomed.

      You may call it anecdotal but I am much better off than my parents or grandparents. My children are doing better than I was at their age. I don't think I'm unique.

    114. Re:correlation != causation by georgenh16 · · Score: 1


      :-P sorry couldn't keep it.

      I hadn't heard about the $21+ billion run on savings - that does add to your case for government action. But I would contend then that the bailouts + stimulus and continuing deficits on the order of trillions is 3+ orders of magnitude too large (if I were to suppose that government action was needed.)

      I'm coming to agree at least with the prevention side - no one wants another downturn like this. Though I'm leery of the government limiting the size of a business. Perhaps it should instead increase the reserve requirement for banks? I don't know what the percentage is right now, but if banks only need 10% on hand to lend 100%, I'd guess that's too low - the banks are at risk of failing on even a modest run of withdrawals.
      The biggest problem was indeed over-leveraging - I'm not sure how to set a reserve requirement on assets like stocks+mortgages/houses whose prices fluctuate rapidly (any ideas?) but I'd favor this before letting the government say all businesses must have a market cap (or market share) below X.

    115. Re:correlation != causation by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      You may call it anecdotal but I am much better off than my parents or grandparents. My children are doing better than I was at their age. I don't think I'm unique.

      No, it's not unique. I'm in the same boat. I've been enormously fortunate in my life and my kid is doing great (but it remains to be seen what the country will be like in a decade when she's thirty).

      But I've tried to look at the numbers pretty carefully about this (I know, that's a surprise given my over-the-top rhetoric) and when you create an actual basket of things that people spend money on (instead of the very badly distorted consumer price index (CPI), you find that overall, people who are in the under $150,000/yr category (which is almost everyone) are on average way below where their parents were. They working harder, longer, owning less, have smaller savings and will retire a lot poorer than their parents. Their kids will leave college and start life with an average debt of more than $75,000.

      If you take the last 30 years of E-Z credit out of the equation, people's standard of living would be even lower.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  2. As Krugman says by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1, Troll

    We need a good war. Kill a few million and there's more money left for the survivors to pay for the credit bubble. We can't have creditors losing their investments, getting wiped out. Gotta keep those zombies walking.
     

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:As Krugman says by jcr · · Score: 0, Troll

      Krugman's exactly the kind of ivory-tower asshat who believes that there's such a thing as a good war.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    2. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This is called "The Broken Window Fallacy", but is essentially a cornerstone of alot of economic policy, because rebuilding things (that were destroyed) creates jobs. In fact I hear alot about 'creating jobs', for example recent talks in my state for a casino, even though its a negative sum game. Even part of our throw away culture is defined by the measurement of GDP for economic success, since the sale of a single part contributes less than the sale of a whole new device. Now its no surprise that warfare, exploitation of and shipping resources around the world, may have not been the most efficient use of our time. But I have a belief that had the greedy capitalist pigs, not gone to war to protect their 'private property' from the 'communist looters', we would have ended up with a more 'free market' than we have now. Furthermore the more homogeneous development and lower diminished returns on both natural and human capital, would have increased aggregate human development and economic productivity, and probably have reduced the population and factored resource inefficiencies.

      America has a god given right to demand a bigger piece of the pie, even if that means destroying some of it in the process, because were exceptional and gods chosen people. Which is essentially our 19th and early 20th century intellectual rhetoric, we found what was essentially virgin land that we exploited, in order to create our version of order in the world.

    3. Re:As Krugman says by TheLink · · Score: 2

      This is called "The Broken Window Fallacy",

      Actually there's a difference since War may involve killing lots of people.

      If the number of people goes down but the amount of assets and resources don't go down as much, it means the survivors/victors have more.

      --
    4. Re:As Krugman says by Luckyo · · Score: 2

      This theory assumes infinite resources. Reality is a polar opposite, as European nations discovered after WW2. The continent was literally plundered of natural resources that were strip-mined to fuel war machines.

    5. Re:As Krugman says by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What the fuck are you talking about? You clearly don't understand the broken window fallacy in the slightest, and opening a casino is in no way a negative sum game. Honestly your entire post sounds like a 13 year old trying to string together what he thinks is an "adult" sentence by running every other word through a thesaurus and picking the synonym with the most letters. And then of course sprinkling in a generous amount of meaningless libertarian rhetoric and name calling.

    6. Re:As Krugman says by Shining+Celebi · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Krugman's exactly the kind of ivory-tower asshat who believes that there's such a thing as a good war.

      No, he doesn't. He's said the right kind of war would help the economy, not that any war is a good thing. Krugman is consistently anti-war. He's also said an arms built-up to fight an alien invasion would be good for the economy and have great secondary effects (from research and whatnot.) He's also not seriously advocated that we arm up to fight an imaginary alien invasion.

      But you can sit their in your smug, self-righteous libertarianism and keep pretending Krugman is a hack who hasn't consistently made very accurate predictions and the Nobel prize in economics is a fraud

    7. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Sounds like your the one who doesn't know what they're talking about, it doesn't make sense to you because you haven't learned it yet.

    8. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 4, Informative

      The economics nobel prize is pretty strange. It is actually the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel".

    9. Re:As Krugman says by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Interesting

      But you can sit their in your smug, self-righteous libertarianism and keep pretending Krugman is a hack who hasn't consistently made very accurate predictions and the Nobel prize in economics is a fraud

      He plans to do exactly that. At some point, their claim that black is white and up is down is all libertarians have.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    10. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      That situation sounds like the accounts I've heard of Europe in the Plague years. Survivors of the bubonic plague inherited the wealth of the dead, suddenly changing a lot of assumptions about feudal class relations.

      Assets and resources went down quite a lot in WW2. I've read Marxist accounts that describe this as what really ended the Great Depression and led to the Long Boom of 1940-1972. Traditionally, Marxists expected economic crises to get worse and worse each time, with shallower booms and deeper busts. The idea is that over time, as assets accumulate, when you invest in new and improved production, you're spending a relatively larger proportion on assets like machinery, infrastructure, and so on, and a smaller proportion on labor. But labor is the part that actually creates new wealth, and is the real source of profit; so the profit margin tends to decline. To make things worse, the main thing you produce is more assets for further production. There are all sorts of complicating factors, of course. But the upshot is, one way to resolve an economic crisis is to destroy lots and lots of assets; then not only is there plenty of business to be had producing more productive assets, but the ratio of productive assets to labor has gone down, so the profit margin increases.

      So I tend to think of modern capitalism as being largely based upon the fallacy of the broken window. Replacing broken windows is an opportunity cost for the community as a whole, but it still looks like a good deal for the glazier, and we've got a society run by glaziers.

    11. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Are you sure you explained that properly?

    12. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      I'm at the eleventh hour of a twelve hour night shift, so it wouldn't surprise me if I blundered in the details. What strikes you as off?

    13. Re:As Krugman says by jellomizer · · Score: 2

      No, you are thinking money in terms of your own bank account as a limited fund system. An Economy isn't as much about how much money but how much of it is moving. The more people the more money that can be moving at any point and a stronger economy. Now what slows it down is people who stop moving their money around as much. Such as our current situation where the Banks had stopped giving loans, that causes the people who needs the loans to not make purchases right away and save up funds. So the flow of money isn't as fluid anymore it is building being saved up. Which when it passes a threshold of when this happens too much that the person who is trying to save the money isn't getting as much revenue from a combination of lack of expansion and other people not spending to save their own money.

      A higher population normally helps reduce this problem by averaging out the savers with the spenders. But also with a larger work force you have more competition where you have higher quality people to choose from. It feels like it sucks for the common Joe having so many people to compete with jobs, However if they are willing to see where their skill sets are they can find a job at their level. And jobs are available because there are more people who are buying goods and services.

      Part of the success of the Baby Boomers was the influx in population. Today we see those immigrants as pull on our society, however I am under the impression if their skin was a little lighter they would have been welcomed as an important pool to keep the US population up, so we can keep expanding.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    14. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      This is an accurate assessment of how modern capitalism operates, but i think the comprehension problem is that he skipped over alot of the labor theory of value, which is where alot of left/right disagreements occur and makes it hard to understand. I'll see if i can conjure up a better explanation.

    15. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      The idea is that over time, as assets accumulate, when you invest in new and improved production, you're spending a relatively larger proportion on assets like machinery, infrastructure, and so on, and a smaller proportion on labor.

      Why is "asset accumulation" rather than increasingly productive technology seen as the cause for less money spent on labor? It takes ten man hours up front to build the machine then you only have to pay one man to run it long term. What about when new technology comes along making all the old assets irrelevant?

      But labor is the part that actually creates new wealth, and is the real source of profit; so the profit margin tends to decline.

      You just jumped into this point. I don't follow at all. What role does using resources in novel ways play in creating new wealth?

      But the upshot is, one way to resolve an economic crisis is to destroy lots and lots of assets; then not only is there plenty of business to be had producing more productive assets, but the ratio of productive assets to labor has gone down, so the profit margin increases.

      Why exactly does profit margin increase? (this is related to your earlier point)

      So I tend to think of modern capitalism as being largely based upon the fallacy of the broken window. Replacing broken windows is an opportunity cost for the community as a whole, but it still looks like a good deal for the glazier, and we've got a society run by glaziers.

      I'm sure this occurs, not so ready to jump to the conclusion it is a driving factor behind "modern capitalism" (by which I assume you mean corporatism)

    16. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The main claim is that government often creates more problems than it solves, then gets stuck in a loop of never ending quick fixes each generating more unintended consequences.

    17. Re:As Krugman says by Rob+the+Bold · · Score: 1

      America has a god given right to demand a bigger piece of the pie, even if that means destroying some of it in the process, because were exceptional and gods chosen people. Which is essentially our 19th and early 20th century intellectual rhetoric, we found what was essentially virgin land that we exploited, in order to create our version of order in the world.

      Now I know that you're stating this in an ironic sense, but I actually got a letter -- this year -- from my US Senator stating that he still believes in American Exceptionalism, actually using that phrase or a slight variation thereof.

      --
      I am not a crackpot.
    18. Re:As Krugman says by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      There is such a thing as a good war. A cold war.

      Face it, the US economy boomed while the USSR was a threat.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    19. Re:As Krugman says by datavirtue · · Score: 1

      A Nobel prize is not a fraud! It is an arbitrary award.

      --
      I object to power without constructive purpose. --Spock
    20. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Here is a good explanation of the concepts of "socially necessary labor time", which is generally the source of profits (not value or utility) for companies, as it takes less labor to produce a good the prices and margins go down.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSP-crYjeoE

    21. Re:As Krugman says by ultranova · · Score: 2

      This is called "The Broken Window Fallacy", but is essentially a cornerstone of alot of economic policy, because rebuilding things (that were destroyed) creates jobs.

      The Broken Window Fallacy makes the assumption that resources would be put to optimum (or at least some) use without the window being broken. It assumes that replacing the broken window wastes the precious time from the already full schedule of busy glassmakers; in other words, it assumes that the main economic problem is producing as much as possible.

      But that's not true of our current societies. We are producing plenty. The problem we face is that of distribution: as automation advances, less and less human labour is needed to produce the same output. At the same time our incentive structure is designed to reward work and penalize not working. As the amount of jobs steadily decreases, the system ends up penalizing people for not doing work that's not available.

      The long-term solution requires rethinking our values, especially our dislike of people getting things without working for them (which is hypocritical anyway, since we are just fine with "investors" getting the rewards from other people's work). In the short term, however, breaking windows works as an emergency measure: it wastes resources, but gives the otherwise unemployed glassmakers something to lose besides their chains.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    22. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      That just sounds like a convoluted way to explain the obvious point that value is subjective.

    23. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      except for that its not subjective, its the socially unnecessary labor time which sets price, and that's the whole point!

    24. Re:As Krugman says by SaroDarksbane · · Score: 2

      Yes, we all just have to accept the "truth" that the solution to too much debt is more debt, and that using scarce resources to make goods that nobody wants and are not useful to anybody will make us all wealthy beyond our wildest dreams.

      Of course, the kind of garbage peddled by mainstream economists can't even be proven wrong, because "The solution to a depressed economy is more liquidity" is a statement that can't be falsified. If the central bank prints up 20 trillion dollars and it doesn't help anything, Krugman and his ilk simply shrug and says "Eh, must not have been enough."

      But the important thing to remember is that anyone who disagrees with him is a member of an irrational cult who doesn't believe in truth or science.

    25. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      I agree with this statement, but would include better economic measuring tools, like consumer surplus and ecological economics.

    26. Re:As Krugman says by TheLink · · Score: 1

      It does not. Read the last line again.

      Back in the bad old days of war genocide and enslavement was a very popular method of ensuring that there was more for the victors despite any destruction of natural resources in the war efforts. And if there are no free survivors, there's very little chance of revenge attacks.

      I'm not suggesting we go back to this method. Currently many countries have got to the stage where wars will cost them more than they'd gain - they would lose out in trade.

      --
    27. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Take the TV example. A company invents/invests in a new way of doing things, their competitors do not. The company can now produce the same number of tvs in half the time. I assume this means at half the cost (the video ignores all expenses besides labor)?

      So that company keeps selling the tvs at the current market rate. Why do people still buy them for that price? Because that is how much a TV is worth to them. Once the market for tvs is saturated, a new (second) tv is worth less to people, so the price is forced to drop.

    28. Re:As Krugman says by Artifakt · · Score: 1

      "Why is "asset accumulation" rather than increasingly productive technology seen as the cause for less money spent on labor? "

      Not to say I agree with all of it, but here's just one example of the theory: If businesses need more assets to enter a market, the threshold cost to enter and compete with existing business entities increases - needing more assets is the same thing as a rising barrier to trade. If more people are frozen out of becoming buisiness entities due to these barriers to entry, the available labor pool increases. A capitalist can pay less for exceptional levels of skill and dedication from workers because those workers cannot apply their exceptional dedication or skill to enter businesses for themselves (or at least these abilities are not enough to let the workers target the businesses with the best chance of making a profit, as these are the very businesses that have the most barriers to entry) Classical Marxism models about a dozen links such as this one between increasing capital costs and declining labor costs and how they actually hurt capital and labor in the longer run.
                  My own feeling is that it's pretty easy to criticise Marx by showing there are exceptions to this or that link, and I'm sure there are exceptions to the barrier to entry link, but it's a lot harder to prove that such exceptions exist for all the links or even a majority, and very hard to show they are frequent enough to shoot down the whole theory. Interestingly, I feel the same about Adam Smyth or Keynes.

      --
      Who is John Cabal?
    29. Re:As Krugman says by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Insightful

      The main claim is that government often creates more problems than it solves, then gets stuck in a loop of never ending quick fixes each generating more unintended consequences.

      Yes, that's the main claim by right-wing fools.

      My wife can't make decent cacciatore, but that's no reason to never eat cacciatore.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    30. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 2

      Your wife forces you to eat her crappy cacciatore? Does she also send you to the store to buy the ingredients?

    31. Re:As Krugman says by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      But the important thing to remember is that anyone who disagrees with him is a member of an irrational cult who doesn't believe in truth or science.

      That's pretty much it. Although to be fair a lot of the people who disagree with him are just fools who watch too much Fox News and right-wing AM radio.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    32. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      That makes sense, however, historically most of those assets eventually become obsolete and large organizations are often least willing to adapt to a changing market so they fall back on lobbying the government, etc rather than choosing to innovate. In the long run it should work out that wealth is redistributed to those willing to take risk on new ideas.

      How is that theory any more speculative than marx's?

    33. Re:As Krugman says by Gilmoure · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If the central bank prints up 20 trillion dollars and it doesn't help anything, Krugman and his ilk simply shrug and says "Eh, must not have been enough."

      No, Krugman says it wasn't spent correctly and yes, the $700B of the stimulus was half what he prescribed. Instead of being injected at the bottom of the economy (working folk and main street businesses), it was piled on to the top, where it was used to keep paying out bonuses to the very people that caused this mess in the first place.

      When the financial industry makes up 40% of the economy, purely by shuffling paper and gambling, that's actually acting as a drag on the economy and not helping things. The TBTF banks should have been broken up *and* liquidity should have been aimed at jobs creation. Instead, you have a gov't that's heavily influenced (run?) by bankers and financiers who can't see any further than the edges of Manhattan. No idea how we're going to get out of this one, unless they go and dig a moat around New Yawk and stop listening to all the yammerheads over there.

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    34. Re:As Krugman says by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      "were exceptional" ?

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    35. Re:As Krugman says by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      In fact I hear alot about 'creating jobs', for example recent talks in my state for a casino, even though its a negative sum game.

      I was agreeing with you until this..

      While casinos do not create wealth, they do concentrate it. When in a situation where neighboring States have already opened casinos or have plans to do so, it would be extremely foolish if your State were to refuse to do the same. The State of Connecticut gets nearly half a billion dollars per year from the two casinos they allow to exist, and that doesnt even include the payroll taxes of the employees... that money is not just coming from some Connecticut residents, but also from many New York, Massachusetts and Rhode Island residents.

      In a time when public sector pension plans are starting to crush nearly every States budgets, its simply laughable when a State allows money to flow to neighboring States unchallenged.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    36. Re:As Krugman says by kaatochacha · · Score: 1

      Holy Crap! You received a letter from a member of Congress stating he believes his country is the best. wow. I'm just flabbergasted.

    37. Re:As Krugman says by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Any intelligent person has known the Noble prize has been a fraud for years, its just as much politics as anything else. While he may have been deserving, pretending that having the Noble proves he is deserving is just fucking retarded.

      Not arguing with anything else in your post, simply that using the Noble as a reference is pretty fucking stupid, and even the public has known that since Obama now has the peace prize. Whats next, you're going to tell us Academia is all about educating students?

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    38. Re:As Krugman says by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      The revolution is coming. Thats how will get out of this one.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    39. Re:As Krugman says by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      And russia fell apart, and theres nothing preventing us from doing that kind of research WITHOUT Russia as a threat, in which case we could have focused that energy on more efficient places for normal life instead of wars.

      It wasn't a good war, it was a good focal point, we didnt' really 'win' in the deal, Russia just got fucked.

      If we would have 'won' we'd not be disassembling nuclear bombs to fuel reactors, we'd just be fueling more of the reactors that weren't going to melt down because we focused on THAT kind of research and development instead of making big ass craters in the desert.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    40. Re:As Krugman says by cayenne8 · · Score: 1

      My wife can't make decent cacciatore, but that's no reason to never eat cacciatore.

      But, it is good reason to not eat HER cacciatore!!

      :)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    41. Re:As Krugman says by i.r.id10t · · Score: 1

      Even if there is a Cold War going on, the guys with stars like to play with their shiny toys so they have Proxy Wars... Korea (still technically going on) and Viet Nam...

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos
    42. Re:As Krugman says by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      How do you justify the research? Those of us that remember the times will remember the talk about the peace dividend. We won the arms race, huzzah, no need to burn money on weapon research anymore, we can put it to good use now!

      A quarter decade later now. Would you say that this "surplus" money we didn't have to push into weapon research was put to good use?

      Another example, the moon shot. Think we would have gone to the moon if it wasn't to flip off the Russians? It was a huge effort and, arguably, a huge waste of resources just to go there to ... well, to go there, because we neither colonized it nor ever considered more than just going there briefly. But look at the leaps technology made during those times! You think you could have argued the government spending in basic research in technologies like propulsion and computing if it was not for this? Hell, how would you now justify government funded basic research? Try, just try, to get any research done that doesn't instantly lead to something marketable. You won't get that in the private sector. Ever. And to justify government spending on something like that, you need to give people a reason.

      And a pretty good reason is an enemy.

      Sadly, we use the terrorists wrong. Just think what research in IT (and physical) security we could fund with the fear. Instead we fund idiotic concepts that lead nowhere.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    43. Re:As Krugman says by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You gotta let kids play with their toys, at least sometimes. I mean, think back, think when daddy bought that nice toy for you, would you have been satisfied just looking at it in its display box?

      See?

      Generals are just like little kids.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    44. Re:As Krugman says by Nyder · · Score: 1

      The main claim is that government often creates more problems than it solves, then gets stuck in a loop of never ending quick fixes each generating more unintended consequences.

      Yes, that's the main claim by right-wing fools.

      My wife can't make decent cacciatore, but that's no reason to never eat cacciatore.

      It is if she's the one making it.

      --
      Be seeing you...
    45. Re:As Krugman says by mcgrew · · Score: 2

      1. Correlation is not causation
      2. There is no correlation, let alone causation. We had a recession in the 1950s and an even worse one in the 1970s. The cold war had nothing to do with economic fluctuations. And we had a boom in th 1990s after the Soviets broke up.

      What happens is you have a war, the economy booms, then it crashes when you have to pay for that war. The '50s recession was paying for WWII and Eisenhower's dream (I'm glad for it, the interstate highways are great). The '70s recession and inflation paid for the horribly expensive Vietnam war. Our present economic woes are from fighting TWO expensive wars.

      Nothing is more expensive than war, cold or hot.

    46. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Well the fed monetized however many trillions in debt, which is like injecting cash into the banks. What in the stimulus did you disagree with though? It appears to have gone to a bunch of government programs:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009

    47. Re:As Krugman says by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      It is if she's the one making it.

      We have it within our power to completely turn over the staff making the cacciatore every 2, 4, 6 years.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    48. Re:As Krugman says by lacaprup · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But you can sit their in your smug, self-righteous libertarianism and keep pretending Krugman is a hack who hasn't consistently made very accurate predictions and the Nobel prize in economics is a fraud

      Krugman has consitently failed to predict anything since he helped lead Enron into an abyss about 14 years ago. Almost eveything he espouses has been proven to be bunk in the wake of Greece, Spain and Portugal in Europe, and his claims of "not enough spending" on the failed Obama stimulus plans is the type of overly general crap that mean nothing. Typical Keynesian... "no matter how much we spend, it's never enough." Further, he has more than once taken obvious disengenuous positions about a true Nobel laureate, Milton Friedman. Seeing as how his sheep-like readership has never actually read Freidman, they'll never know.

    49. Re:As Krugman says by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Poorly run governmnet creates more problems than it solves, well run governments don't. The Libbies don't believe in well run governments. Elect someone who believes that government is the cause of problems, and it will be the cause of many.

    50. Re:As Krugman says by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0

      But, it is good reason to not eat HER cacciatore!!

      That sounds dirty.

      "Man, would I like to eat her cacciatore! Know whad I mean? Whoa!"

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    51. Re:As Krugman says by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      you mean milton "the free market magic wand" friedman?

    52. Re:As Krugman says by claytongulick · · Score: 1

      I wish that every person who supports these sorts of arguments (I hesitantly label "liberal") would read this and really learn from it: The Broken Window Parable

      --
      Drinking habits can be dangerous. You can choke on the cloth and the nuns will wonder where their clothes are.
    53. Re:As Krugman says by Luckyo · · Score: 1

      Last line implies that more resources per person were present after the war then before. This is false, as for example most of metals were completely strip mined so that there was not only less per person, there was almost NONE left.

    54. Re:As Krugman says by LDAPMAN · · Score: 1

      The problem lies with the definition of "well run". I really doubt we agree on what that means. One mans efficiency is another mans tyranny.

    55. Re:As Krugman says by Shining+Celebi · · Score: 1

      I guess it's too much trouble to actually read Krugman - or even know the facts.

      I assume you're referring to "everything he espouses" to be the straw-puppet of "government spending good," and since Greece, Spain, and Portugal are running massive deficits and are in a debt crises, Krugman is obviously a dummy.

      Well, Spain was actually running a budget surplus, so it's a bad example to begin with. And Krugman correctly predicted the Euro crises. He correctly predicted the response to the Euro crises austerity. And thus far, he has been correct about his predictions about the effect of the response to the Euro crises. And Krugman doesn't advocate deficit spending in boom times to begin with.

      And as for leading Enron into an abyss, he served on an irrelevant advisory panel for Enron for four days. While I have no idea what he told Enron, he was arguing in public for increased regulation of energy companies at the time.

    56. Re:As Krugman says by LDAPMAN · · Score: 1

      So you believe that America is not significantly different than other nations? You don't think our constitution was a radical departure from the forms of government present in every other nation on earth at that time?

    57. Re:As Krugman says by hairyfish · · Score: 1

      No, the last line explicitly says "and resources don't go down as much". In your example resources went down more than people, but this is not always the case.

    58. Re:As Krugman says by jcr · · Score: 1

      He's said the right kind of war would help the economy,

      Yes, that's one of the idiotic Keynesian canards that he frequently repeats. War production wastes resources, it doesn't create wealth.

      >keep pretending Krugman is a hack who hasn't consistently made very accurate predictions

      Like when he advocated a housing bubble as a remedy for the NASDAQ bubble?

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    59. Re:As Krugman says by jcr · · Score: 1

      the $700B of the stimulus was half what he prescribed.

      Medieval barbers typically prescribed more bloodletting when a patient's condition failed to improve from bloodletting.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    60. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      I'm basically talking about about Marx's labor theory of value and the the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. The Wikipedia articles explain them more clearly than I can.

      So I tend to think of modern capitalism as being largely based upon the fallacy of the broken window. Replacing broken windows is an opportunity cost for the community as a whole, but it still looks like a good deal for the glazier, and we've got a society run by glaziers.

      I'm sure this occurs, not so ready to jump to the conclusion it is a driving factor behind "modern capitalism" (by which I assume you mean corporatism)

      I'm pretty sure I mean capitalism. Specifically, I mean organizing society around maximizing profit and accumulating capital as the highest social goals. Accumulating capital is a good thing, but I think we've got too much of a good thing.

      One of the problems with maximizing profit as a social goal is that profit emerges in a cycle of production and consumption, so there's an ideal of making that cycle turn over as rapidly as possible. But consuming more doesn't necessarily mean a higher quality of life. And you don't exactly need to live in a commune to see that a reusable ceramic mug is better than a month's supply of paper cups.

    61. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      A commodity has a dual nature: exchange value, and use value. Exchange value is price; use value is socially determined, which is to say it may have a subjective element to it. Recognizing use value, through empathy with human subjectivity, is the part where human creativity comes into play, and why labor is indispensable in the process of production. I think that doesn't get enough attention.

    62. Re:As Krugman says by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Well, if the customers are happy and the employees are happy and the work gets done well, the organization is well run. A bad boss isn't going to get the best work out of his workers, and his customers aren't going to be satisfied.

    63. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      What do you mean by "social goal"? How does this differ from personal goals?

      Who thinks consuming more means a higher quality of life? Who buys 100s of paper cups a month rather than reusing a mug (assuming its not a sanitation issue)?

      Consumerism only works because people implicitly know that their money loses value over time. Fix this. Make it so that saving lets you buy the same thing for cheaper later, and you have fixed everything you are talking about. It has nothing to do with the virtues of capitalism and everything to do with central banking.

    64. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      That sounds needlessly complex. Why not just say the value of everything is subjective? What does that theory explain? (and no I didn't bother reading Wikipedia on it, so ignore me if this is dumb)

    65. Re:As Krugman says by Kiaser+Zohsay · · Score: 1

      In the long run it should work out that wealth is redistributed to those willing to take risk on new ideas.

      Keynes was right about the long run, too.

      --
      I am not your blowing wind, I am the lightning.
    66. Re:As Krugman says by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      LOL....

      You know, we don't agree on a lot of things, but here...I like your thinking!!

      Have a great day!

      ;)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    67. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      People die, society lives on... Inflation was indeed controlling itself before the fed adopted a policy of constant inflation.

    68. Re:As Krugman says by lacaprup · · Score: 1

      I guess it's too much trouble to actually read Krugman - or even know the facts.

      How do these facts work:

      "Consider, for example, the prediction Krugman made the day Obama signed the original stimulus bill into law: “I am still guessing that we peak out at around 9% [unemployment] and that would be late this year [2009]." Furthermore, Krugman declared that double-digit unemployment was “not the most likely event.” As Norquist and Lott note, unemployment hit 10.1% and remained above 9% two years after Krugman predicted it would peak.

      Once it became clear that President Obama’s stimulus plan had failed to ignite the economic recovery he promised, Krugman and others began scrambling for excuses to explain why Obama’s spending spree hadn’t worked. One explanation Krugman offered was that right-wingers had erroneously claimed government spending had increased when it hadn’t:

      "So as I said, the big government expansion everyone talks about never happened....And federal aid to state and local governments wasn’t enough to make up for plunging tax receipts in the face of the economic slump....[T]here’s a widespread perception that government spending has surged, when it hasn’t—is that there has been a disinformation campaign from the right, based on the usual combination of fact-free assertions and cooked numbers."

      As Norquist and Lott reveal, Krugman’s claims rely on a slippery game of sleight of hand; Krugman cherry-picks the only year when total government spending dropped, which was from 2009 to 2010, “and even then, it was still much higher than just a couple of years earlier.” In point of fact, note the authors, government spending has grown 12 percent since 2008 and 20 percent since 2007. "

    69. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      What do you mean by "social goal"? How does this differ from personal goals?

      Obviously, it's a goal for a group, rather than for an individual. Look at what's discussed in public. "Economic growth", and other closely related concepts, feature prominently and frequently in campaign statements from US politicians, commentary from pundits, and so forth. It looks to me like a lot of the liberal-versus-conservative debate takes the form of, on the one hand, "We need to make progress on other social goals in order to continue economic growth", versus, "Economic growth will bring progress on other social goals as a natural consequence", both formulations pointing to economic growth as the primary social goal.

      Who thinks consuming more means a higher quality of life?

      It's said directly less often now than it was a few decades ago. I find it implicit in criticisms of arguments for sustainability, as in, people will argue that limiting carbon production means condemning Africa to perpetual poverty.

      Who buys 100s of paper cups a month rather than reusing a mug (assuming its not a sanitation issue)?

      My employer, and a few past employers. I've seen a few places where employers bought basic ceramic mugs, by contrast. There may be, as you suggest, secondary reasons, but the reason I use that as an illustration is that I'd think most people would understand that using mugs instead of cups is both more ecological and more pleasant.

      Consumerism only works because people implicitly know that their money loses value over time. Fix this. Make it so that saving lets you buy the same thing for cheaper later, and you have fixed everything you are talking about.

      "Money" doesn't have any meaning outside of a system of exchange. It's an abstract unit of measurement for comparing commodities in exchanges. If it's not being used in exchanges, it doesn't exist. It's only because of credit systems that it appears to exist , and that's because the banking system is using money in its accounts to make exchanges.

      What you want to save are material resources, and most people don't really have any but their own ability to perform labor. Someone who owns land with timber or mineral resources can refrain from extracting those resources; most people do not own land, or similar material resources.

      It has nothing to do with the virtues of capitalism and everything to do with central banking.

      I'm at a loss what capitalism means if it doesn't mean either "a system that prioritizes accumulation of capital" or "rule by capitalists" (i.e., the people who control accumulated capital).

      Centralized banking is a result of the scale of capitalism. The only way capitalism could function without centralized banking is by regressing to a smaller scale. Aside from the massive amount of destruction that would be required for such a regression, you'd have small capitalists competing to become larger capitalists, which is to say, the same thing all over again, including establishing credit systems.

    70. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      That sounds needlessly complex. Why not just say the value of everything is subjective? What does that theory explain? (and no I didn't bother reading Wikipedia on it, so ignore me if this is dumb)

      Mostly because I'm picking apart the concept of value, and pointing out that an element of it is subjective, not the whole thing. Most descriptions of the labor theory of value wouldn't mention the subjective elements at all. In particular: exchange value is objective; most often, most aspects of use value can be assessed objectively, but not all.

    71. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      I'm at a loss what capitalism means if it doesn't mean either "a system that prioritizes accumulation of capital" or "rule by capitalists" (i.e., the people who control accumulated capital).

      Centralized banking is a result of the scale of capitalism. The only way capitalism could function without centralized banking is by regressing to a smaller scale. Aside from the massive amount of destruction that would be required for such a regression, you'd have small capitalists competing to become larger capitalists, which is to say, the same thing all over again, including establishing credit systems.

      Hmm, maybe we disagree on the definition of ruler. I don't think there is anything wrong with credit/debt per se. To be sure, it makes no sense to have the government borrow money from a bank. They are borrowing as much as they want anyway, so they may as well print it. The problem is that people are forced to prop up failed industries through taxes. In a "capitalist" society all transactions are voluntary. Of course, then we can argue about what a "transaction" consists of, and the various failure modes by which involuntary transactions can still arise.

      The primary difference is that we would stop pretending force can be used legitimately, except in self-defense.

    72. Re:As Krugman says by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      The utility of an object is dependent on context, right?

    73. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      Hmm, maybe we disagree on the definition of ruler.

      Possibly.

      A lot of radical left thought is about distinguishing between formal structures of power, and real structures which encompass those formal structures. A lot of radical leftists make the mistake of oversimplifying, or assuming that things are so obvious that it requires no argument. It's not like Bill Gates can simply issue orders to Barack Obama; it's more subtle than that.

      The primary difference is that we would stop pretending force can be used legitimately, except in self-defense.

      Sounds good to me.

    74. Re:As Krugman says by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      There's a global context, and a local context. You can fairly precisely and objectively describe the characteristics of an automobile engine, but you may not have any use for one. But other people, other places, do.

      Come to think of it, part of the idea about accumulated wealth is accumulated labor, and I was arguing that labor is basically recognizing utility, which is subjective, so a complex object is labor layered upon labor, like layers of a pearl. So, yes, in that sense, it's ultimately all subjective. One can imagine a world in which no one wants an automobile engine, for instance. But in the context of a world in which, for the moment, it's a given that some people want automobile engines, you can talk about the qualities of an automobile engine as an automobile engine objectively.

  3. Why was it confidential? by Henriok · · Score: 2, Insightful

    OK it's somewhat sensitive information, but why was it confidential for so long?

    --

    - Henrik

    - when the Shadows descend -
    1. Re:Why was it confidential? by ClioCJS · · Score: 5, Funny

      Because it's somewhat sensitive information.

      --
      -Clio
      Karma: Bad (mostly from not giving a fuck)
      Blog: http://clintjcl.wordpress.com
    2. Re:Why was it confidential? by petman · · Score: 1

      I'm stabbing in the dark, but it might be to ensure that most of the people surveyed in the census is dead, so any privacy issue is minimised.

    3. Re:Why was it confidential? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If they're hoping to make sure everyone's dead, then they shouldn't have picked 72 years.
      I have living uncles born before 1940, and even their parents (read: my grandparents) are still alive in their 90s.

      p.s. My grandfather who served in WWII died about 5 years ago.

    4. Re:Why was it confidential? by uberdilligaff · · Score: 4, Informative

      Because that was the law under which the sensitive information was collected. The average US life expectancy in 1935 was 61.7 years, so 72 years would mean that the privacy issues would be moot for most of the folks enumerated in the Census -- they weren't expected to be around to complain 72 years later. The laws that established the Census go way back -- I don't know when the 72 years criterion was established. Life expectancy was even shorter the farther back you go.

      --
      Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain. --Friederich Schiller
    5. Re:Why was it confidential? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Because if it had not been promised to remain confidential, people wouldn't have filled it truthfully.

    6. Re:Why was it confidential? by vlm · · Score: 5, Interesting

      LOL human death back then, as now, was a bathtub distribution, like electronics parts. So most people died as little kids or elderly. Back then pretty much all preemies died as a general rule, for example, unlike now. All the "average" means is the ratio of how many died as a baby vs died as an old man. I'd guess that means about two kids died young for every 8 or so that died elderly, which seems to fit in with actual genealogical data I have on my ancestors...

      The "real story" (in quotes because even pages of and pages of this stuff is still merely a summary of the real sources) can be read at

      http://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/genealogy/the_72_year_rule.html

      The exact number 72 was selected because in 1952 they wanted to give away the 1880 census information. Essentially declassify it by transfer from the BC to the NA. I think you can see the math there, 1952 - 72 = 1880 The exact 72 year range has stuck since then.

      The legal BS behind the general range of "more than 70 years" was selected, as you'll read at the link above, because the census officers had to / have to take an oath to never release the data. Assuming someone lied on their application and got hired anyway at 10 (unlikely), and assuming that even in extenuating circumstances there are no govt employees of any sort over the age of 82 (unlikely), that means waiting 72 years means the oath takers successfully did their duty and while it was in their power, blah blah blah, they never released the data. Essentially its your usual govt corruption. Technically according to the rule of the law the folks who gathered your 2010 census data will Never permit the release of the 2010 census data .... Never ... of course they'll be dead or retired eventually at which point it'll be released anyway in 2082, assuming the country doesn't self destruct first, at which time the oath takers will all be dead or retired.

      Its legal bullshit because if you're convicted of a crime by a judge, just because a judge dies or retires doesn't mean you're a free man. Another example would be the priest who married me and my wife about a dozen years ago by the process of signing the marriage license recently died... that does not automagically make us single. Also from my military experience the death of a guy who classified a document doesn't automagically free that document.

      If someone invents an immortality treatment, we'll have to come up with some new legal technicality bullshit. But for now 72 years works and is the tradition.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    7. Re:Why was it confidential? by Gideon+Wells · · Score: 2

      Our State Representative who served in WWII is only retiring this election because they redistricted him out of a district. He was very skilled in finding ways to apply being born/raised in the depression as an advantage.

      But yeah, they should have waited a few more years (a decade or two) if that was their goal unless they had a hard percentage of estimated survivors as a trigger.

      --
      by Anonymous Coward: I, for one, welcome the shift from car analogies to pizza analogies. um.. overlords?
    8. Re:Why was it confidential? by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      In the UK they release census data after 1000 years ... we have recently got the 1911 census (we have them every 10 years but started in 1841)

      Is this a reflection of expected lifespans in the US and UK ?

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    9. Re:Why was it confidential? by Skater · · Score: 4, Funny

      Essentially its your usual govt corruption.

      I like how you just equated people following the law with government corruption. No bias here! Good show.

    10. Re:Why was it confidential? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the UK they release census data after 1000 years ... we have recently got the 1911 census

      Wow. I missed 900 years or so. Where is my flying car?
      Is this a reflection of expected lifespans in the US and UK ?

      You UKers live a long freaking time.

    11. Re:Why was it confidential? by Rob+the+Bold · · Score: 1

      OK it's somewhat sensitive information, but why was it confidential for so long?

      From TFNPRA:

      There is a reason that all of this up-close-and-personal information from 1940 is being released all these years later. "In 1952, the director of the Census Bureau and the National Archivist agreed that keeping census records private for 72 years balanced public release of federal records with the tradition of confidentiality," explains the Census Bureau's Glasier. In other words, 72 years was considered at the time to be longer than most lifespans.

      --
      I am not a crackpot.
    12. Re:Why was it confidential? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, he called collecting data under one law and then changing the law that pertains to the data corruption.

      He basically is saying that the government collecting data, promising to never release that data, and then releasing the data under the excuse, 'well the guy that made that promise is gone, you can't hold us to that agreement.' corruption.

    13. Re:Why was it confidential? by vlm · · Score: 1

      AC has it correct. Even shorter summary : "I personally promise to never allow this specific line of data to ever be released. 72 years later I'm dead, so its public domain now"

      Also I'm mystified by the GP hidden assumption that if its a govt law, it can't be corrupt. LOL

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    14. Re:Why was it confidential? by Skater · · Score: 1

      AC has it correct. Even shorter summary : "I personally promise to never allow this specific line of data to ever be released. 72 years later I'm dead, so its public domain now"

      Also I'm mystified by the GP hidden assumption that if its a govt law, it can't be corrupt. LOL

      Okay, to put it more clearly - your line of logic was fine (they wanted to release certain data and decided 72 years was enough), but then you twisted that into "government employees are all corrupt!!!!!!!!!!!" The AC is fooled by your twisted logic as well.

    15. Re:Why was it confidential? by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      72 years is somewhere around the average age for a man living in the US. The goal isn't to make sure every single person included in the survey is dead, the goal is to make sure that enough time passes that the information gathered can't be misused. It's an arbitrary large number that most people will agree is too long for anyone to make nefarious use from.

    16. Re:Why was it confidential? by Jiro · · Score: 1

      It's government corruption. They said they would never release it and then released it. "Well, we only promised that the particular people who were working there at the time wouldn't release it, not that the government wouldn't release it" is an excuse to blatantly not do what the government promise it would do.

  4. Slashdot "news" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I heard about this last week(!) on AlJazeera(!)...

  5. Keynesian solution my ass! by olddoc · · Score: 1

    Why did you say "we ought to be able to see more clearly how government spending bettered everyday life" Why don't you say "we ought to be able to see more clearly how world war bettered everyday life" "Clearly in the 1990s and early 2000s there were too few wars rather than too many to stimulate the US economy" correlation !=causation Still I would rather have a 1940 size US government with a 1940 size budget and 1940 amount of federal regulations. (and a 2012 respect for civil rights)

    --
    Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
    1. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by starworks5 · · Score: 2

      I believe that government has a role to play in the economy, but not one that is in bed with the private sector, which is where most of the waste is derived from. However if your talking about it from a liberty perspective, there is essentially two forms of liberty (actually a plurality), the government and private sector both advocate differing varieties.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty#Freedom_as_a_triadic_relation

    2. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes, this idiot was a troll, but such ideas left unanswered settle in and sound reasonable. Man's "freedome to associat" wasn't the problem. It was the "freedom to abuse" concealed under that "freedom to associate". The good, decent people up north and around the world "dealt with niggers". The agricultural industries of the American South benefitted economically from slaves tending their fields, and it was easier to hate them as subhuman because of their skin color difference.

      But it's much easier to steal from the colored folk, and blame them for your woes, and use them as cheap labor in agricullture to support businesses, than to "associate" with them. The caste sytem remains common in many nations. You think those Indian engineers we get here with H1B visas are racially indifferent? They're all Brahmins!!!!! The lower castes don't get the education!!!!

    3. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Modded parent up, honestly. You all see a troll, I see either "hilarious" or "insightful".
      Funny because it's so unreasonable, or insightful because maybe sometimes big government DOES have it's uses (allows people to be forced into change that's actually good). I think the dialogue could be helpful in this regard. So, Troll or not, I applaud the parent for up and speaking out.

      At face value, parent? What's your problem with "niggers"? Bad experience? I'm sorry to hear that.
        I've met "niggers" of every race (if you'll permit my usage) and I can tell you that with some education and a more stable lifestyle I'm willing to bet most of them want to participate in society and do something useful just like the rest of us. Or just post on Slashdot all day :P

      now I'm going to run away from the ensuing flames.... eek!

    4. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by JerkBoB · · Score: 1

      Still I would rather have a 1940 size US government with a 1940 size budget and 1940 amount of federal regulations.
      (and a 2012 respect for civil rights)

      In order for that to work out you're going to need a 1940-size population (and never let it grow -- maybe some more world wars) and a 1940-style population distribution. I've been thinking a lot lately about the implications a larger, more urban population has for the American experiment. In all the discourse I hear/read, I never come across anyone pointing out the simple fact that things are very different than they were when the founders did their thing. Hell, things are incredibly different from what they were just 2-3 generations ago, when this census was taken.

      1790 population:
      3.8M, 3% urban, 81% white (18% slaves!!)

      1940 population:
      131M, 56% urban, 88% white

      2010 population:
      308M, 81% urban, 75% white

      Look at those numbers. Taken from census.gov. Look at those numbers and tell me that they're not striking. In 72 years, the population has increased by nearly 2.5 times, it's become far more urban (i.e. more people cheek-by-jowl with far less community), and less homogenous.

      Some people will say those are good things, some say they're bad. I think that's silly. They're facts. They just are. But no one seems to want to explore those facts. What does it mean that so many of us now live in cities? There is interesting work (Dunbar Rule, Monkeysphere, etc.) which indicates that we're wired to perform best socially in smaller groups. Social mores hold stronger sway when anonymity is limited.

      I think the fact that people don't police themselves (why shouldn't I cut off this asshole, he doesn't know me, I won't see him again!) has led to the crazy layering of laws put in place by politicians who have to be seen to be "doing something" even if that something is passing new laws which overlap with laws already passed to "do something", leading to unintended consequences and a dysfunctional legal system which is now based almost entirely around plea bargaining (90+ %!!) rather than trial by jury of one's peers, as the framers envisioned. Think about that. As most of us don't wind up in the criminal justice system, I think most of us still have this romanticized notion of how law works -- lawyers make their cases before a jury of our peers, the jury goes away and weighs evidence, then makes a decision, etc. etc. No, actually what happens is someone from the AD's office and your defense lawyer sit down and play the bargaining game. If your lawyer is good enough, they bargain down so you get the minimum time possible, it goes to a judge, and you go serve your sentence. No jury. No courtroom drama. If everyone demanded a trial by jury, the system would grind to a halt.

      What's the point of all this ranting? I don't know. Mostly I'm just venting to get this idea out there, to get people thinking and talking about the idea that the systems we have in place now (government, law, etc) may have gone well beyond their ability to scale to the size of our population. It's like any other scaling problem... Take the technology that is working now, keep throwing band-aids and duct tape at it until it completely crumbles under the load, and then throw it out in search of what works at the next level. Often times that changeout in technology isn't a clean progression -- some things have to work differently in order to deal with the increased load. Just because it's different doesn't mean that it's worse, though.

      --
      A host is a host from coast to coast...
      Unless it's down, or slow, or fails to POST!
    5. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Keynesian was "security by obscurity" tactics anyway. Government was taking lessons from Nazi Germany's use of IBM's Hollerith machines (already in use in US, yes, but not with as wide and information pool, though many of them died in interment) to round up the Jews. At least the US treated the Japanese Americans a bit better (at least we don't know of any ovens etc put to use). The census is constitutionally defined as a simple head count and current format is therefore unconstitutional as well as being highly dangerous.

    6. Re:Keynesian solution my ass! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oops, edit error should have hit "preview" at least one more time:

      Keynesian was "security by obscurity" tactics anyway. Government was taking lessons from Nazi Germany's use of IBM's Hollerith machines (already in use in US, yes, but not with as wide and information pool) to round up the Jews. At least the US treated the Japanese Americans a bit better (at least we don't know of any ovens etc put to use, though many of them died in interment). The census is constitutionally defined as a simple head count and current format is therefore unconstitutional as well as being highly dangerous.

  6. 18 Terabytes?! by ndogg · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Someone gonna torrent that?

    --
    // file: mice.h
    #include "frickin_lasers.h"
    1. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      I think you can get it from megaupload.com

    2. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Pieroxy · · Score: 1

      Someone gonna torrent that?

      Piraaaaaaaate!

    3. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You already are; you just don't know it yet.

      Computers were receiving 100,000 requests per second.

      Some former-USSR-country-not-to-be-named cracker probably accidentally wget the whole .gov from a few million USian bots.

    4. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, came here for the torrent.. anyone hook me up?

    5. Re:18 Terabytes?! by sohmc · · Score: 1

      I had this same question. My assumption is that should the gov't provide a torrent, the MPAA/RIAA/etc would get all up in arms that the administration is supporting copyright infringement. It's completely incorrect, but when has that ever stopped the MPAA/RIAA/etc from complaining?

      So instead of "sharing the load" between servers, they just put the data on a server and said, "Good luck. We're all counting on you."

      I'm sure some slashdotter somewhere has torrented it though. Too bad I'm at work and my company considers torrents "hacking."

      --
      We don't live in Shouldland.
    6. Re:18 Terabytes?! by arth1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, the reason for the 100,000 requests per second is largely - drumroll - mormons.
      No, I'm not kidding. Honestly.

      Part of their religion is that they hold baptisms for dead people, so they allegedly get a chance to become mormons after their death, and thus gain greater rewards[*]. In order to do that, they engage extensively in genealogy. Really extensively.

      Their accuracy isn't much to brag about, though. I discovered through a search engine that someone in the LDS church had done a baptism "for" my departed father. And got most of his details wrong, including his birth year and family relations. But now it's "official" as far as they're concerned.
      They refuse to strike this from their records - I am "welcome to" submit correct information, but I don't want them to have that either. How about they stick to their own, and leave the rest of us alone?

      But yeah, mormons cause a huge part of the traffic.

      [*]: Like being reunited with one's loved ones, or becoming a Mr. and Mrs. God of a new planet. No, I'm not making this up. Religion is stranger than fiction.

    7. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Orgasmatron · · Score: 1

      It looks like the website linked is designed to avoid oversharing. There doesn't seem to be any way to export the data in bulk.

      --
      See that "Preview" button?
    8. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Rob+Riggs · · Score: 1

      It's 18TB of unsearchable images. Why didn't they just give it to Google to OCR and index for us all?

      --
      the growth in cynicism and rebellion has not been without cause
    9. Re:18 Terabytes?! by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      No, the reason for the 100,000 requests per second is largely - drumroll - mormons.
      No, I'm not kidding. Honestly.

      Not kidding, but wrong.

      My mother is an amateur genealogist, studying our family history. She tells me that people like her have been salivating over this for months, and that many of them were planning on jumping on as soon as the information went public.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    10. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm aiming for more than a planet.
      I believe the Bible used the term joint-heirs with Christ, and it sure seems like he is inheriting more than a single planet.
      You can call it crazy, but at least get the scale of crazy right ;-)

    11. Re:18 Terabytes?! by honestmonkey · · Score: 1

      > Religion is stranger than other fiction.

      There, fixed that for you.

      --
      Everything you know is wrong, Just forget the words and sing along.
    12. Re:18 Terabytes?! by 3arwax · · Score: 1

      My understanding is that Mormons are only a small, but active group of people who work on their family histories. My understanding that most of ancestry.com's customers are not LDS. Researching your family history is a lot of fun. I found it great to see the long line of practical jokers starting with a great grandma who put on the bear rug after dark to encourage her son not to be doing his chores so late. It is also fascinating to see just how much things can change in just one generation. From the father who was hateful, and almost ate the Spanish guide, to two sons who received awards (one from the president of Mexico) and both served in their state legislatures. There are some incredible stories of faith and perseverance and some fun ones about interesting accomplishments. I encourage you to learn about those who came before you.

    13. Re:18 Terabytes?! by dasunt · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Their accuracy isn't much to brag about, though. I discovered through a search engine that someone in the LDS church had done a baptism "for" my departed father. And got most of his details wrong, including his birth year and family relations. But now it's "official" as far as they're concerned.

      I've done a fair bit of genealogy. It's a decent geek hobby, it doesn't cost too much, takes a large amount of time, and requires good problem solving skills and the ability to judge and verify information. Plus it tends to tie in with a lot of history and geography, which I'm interested in. I'd recommend it.

      I'm not a professional genealogist, but I have found situations which may explain the conflicting information for your father. It could be due to two people with similar names, or misinformation on public records, etc.

      Someone I'm probably descended from lived about 50 miles away from someone else with the same name in colonial times. They were about the same age. They both married, and some of their children share the same name as well. Its common to see details from both individuals in other family trees.

      A similar situation exists with myself - when I went to school, there was someone in the same school with my name. Different birthdate, but roughly the same age. Anyone who attempts a family tree with me in it will probably run into the same problem.

      Public records are not immune to this either. Some of them show interesting errors. The state and the federal government disagree on the date my grandmother died - the state thinks she died a day earlier than the feds. Anyone who hasn't seen the records would consider any genealogical research with the wrong date to be "sloppy". Nowadays, with the Internet, its pretty easy to get both records. But even 15 years ago, having retrieved just one record wouldn't be unusual. Another case would be a great-grandmother of mine, who had the amazing ability to age only 8 or 9 years between each census - she kept lying about her age on every census in order to be younger than she actually was. (In addition, her children could never agree on her father's name either - marriage records and the death certificate give conflicting information.)

      Of course, a large problem with genealogy today, especially Internet genealogy, is the severe amount of copying that goes on among amateur genealogists, especially with the lack of verification and citation for the source of information. Citations are very important when it comes to research - there are going to be mistakes in records, and you always want to know the sources when it comes to conflicting information in order to verify which one is correct. Someone may be listed as a son or daughter on the census, but instead turn out to be a stepson or stepdaughter or other relative. Or perhaps a person's name was recorded incorrectly. Blindly following this information results in flawed family trees. But some people are not patient enough to do this, and instead tend to add people without verification or hunting down the source. These are the same people who tend to copy from other individuals family trees, which compounds the problem.

      This is one reason why I won't publish my family tree, in its current form, online - I have links and information in my family tree that are, quite frankly, a "best guess". As long as the notes and citations are included, it's clear that the information requires further verification, but if put on-line, the information would most likely be copied into countless other family trees and stripped of citations and notes. I'd rather not do that. ;)

      As for the LDS's obsession with genealogy, I tend to really appreciate it. The amount of preservation of old records the LDS has done is amazing, regardless of the reasoning behind that. And really, post-death baptism shouldn't be too upsetting. If you're religion or lack of religion is so weak that a religious ceremony once you're long dead will put you in jeopardy, I think you're belief is misplaced.

    14. Re:18 Terabytes?! by arth1 · · Score: 1

      My understanding is that Mormons are only a small, but active group of people who work on their family histories.

      Close to 15 million members. And not only do a lot of them do genealogy themselves, but they also support secular institutions that do.

    15. Re:18 Terabytes?! by arth1 · · Score: 1

      And really, post-death baptism shouldn't be too upsetting. If you're religion or lack of religion is so weak that a religious ceremony once you're long dead will put you in jeopardy, I think you're belief is misplaced.

      There's no jeopardy - it's disrespectful.

      A person's right to practice their religion should be conditional on respect for others and their beliefs or lack thereof.

    16. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While, in theory, it might seem like a good idea to make peoples' rights contingent on them respecting the rights of others, I suspect that, in practice, it'd be a disaster.

    17. Re:18 Terabytes?! by 3arwax · · Score: 1

      I wonder how useful the data is for family history. Most people who have spent any time at this can get their family history back a few generations fairly easily. A 1940 census won't help beyond that.

    18. Re:18 Terabytes?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mormons are only supposed to submit information about their own ancestors. The Church can't be blamed for members not following the rules.

  7. Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 1

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Keynes suggest government deficit spending during depressions and recessions... then pay it off when times are good?

    I've never actually read his work so I don't know. This would make more sense than that an economist would recommend what is going on though.

    1. Re:Keynsian Theories by starworks5 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Technically speaking all money is now a form of debt, and what governments tend to do anymore is issue debt in their currency, and then inflate the currency to keep the debt/gdp level low enough to prevent default.

      Its mathematically impossible for everyone to pay off all debt in the system that we currently have now, the inflation is what makes the active pursuit of money (and therefore production) obligatory.

    2. Re:Keynsian Theories by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      More precisely you can afford to go into debt, if the assets(public or private) created by the debt over time, creates a sufficiently low debt/asset ratio.

    3. Re:Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I have gathered that point, however there is more than one way to get rid of debt.

      I think that is kind of tangential to what I was asking though. Keynes advocated "counter-cyclical" spending, correct? Inflate during recession and deflate during boom times (yes, people and businesses will default because of this policy). What we have instead is constant inflation.

    4. Re:Keynsian Theories by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No one talks about keynes during boom periods. He is only trotted out during recessions to justify huge deficits.

    5. Re:Keynsian Theories by starworks5 · · Score: 1

      Yes I believe that he did have a counter-cyclical argument, but trading business cycles for monetary cycles doesn't reduce volatility, which is in general worse than the constant inflation.

    6. Re:Keynsian Theories by TheMathemagician · · Score: 2

      Pretty much. But people forget today that Keynes was specifically addressing the problems of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The world is so different now that it's by no means certain that Keynes himself would advocate the same solution for the current recession. I therefore tend to tune out anyone condemning a policy on the basis it's "Keynesian".

    7. Re:Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      It might if the people running things had perfect information and only good intentions. Anyway, so it seems your problem with keynes is that monetary cycles have been more volatile. Either way, I am still unsure what the historian in the OP was talking about.

    8. Re:Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      It was brought up because there is a historian randomly praising Keynesian policy.

    9. Re:Keynsian Theories by DigiShaman · · Score: 2

      Keynsian is a bullshit method by pushing the problem into the future which only makes it that much worse. Pay now, or pay dearly later. That's because inflation is just a side-band form of taxation. Also, by targeting your budget into the future, you're actually effecting the present which in turn alters the very future you're trying to predict in the first place.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    10. Re:Keynsian Theories by Hatta · · Score: 1

      Its mathematically impossible for everyone to pay off all debt in the system that we currently have now, the inflation is what makes the active pursuit of money (and therefore production) obligatory.

      In other words, the whole fucking thing is a ponzi scheme.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    11. Re:Keynsian Theories by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pay now, or pay dearly later, or why the fuck do we even have public credit for private profit?

      A system based on a never-ending exponential function is insane. (But it benefits those in power, or they'd have gotten rid of it by now.)

    12. Re:Keynsian Theories by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      What we have instead is constant inflation.

      Which isn't necessarily bad. I mean, it's bad for certain groups that would prefer to simply sit on their money, and hand it off to their kids or something. And runaway inflation is bad for almost everybody. But a constant low inflation encourages people to do something with their money.
      And consistancy is good. This cycle thing makes people go bust. A constant state, being orderly, having a predictable future lets people make plans and take the long view. Averaging out the boom and bust years is one of the jobs of government.

    13. Re:Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      A constant state, being orderly, having a predictable future

      Is that what has been happening?

    14. Re:Keynsian Theories by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Its mathematically impossible for everyone to pay off all debt in the system that we currently have now

      People keep on saying this, yet I've never seen any proof of it, and intuitively a single one-dollar bill should be capable of paying off any amount of debt, it simply needs to make enough rounds around the economy. So, proof?

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    15. Re:Keynsian Theories by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      Well not so much of late. And OH LOOK inflation rates have been hopping around a bit. (Just slide back that start date for a good view) They were pretty level in the 90's. Had some problems in the 70's and 80's. 60's were good.

      Of course, all of that is NOTHING compared to the chaotic pre-50's era when the USA wasn't a super power. It's good to be on top.

      But it's not like you can set the inflation rate and magically make for a stable economy. It's more like an indicator of the economy. This gets scary when this gets boiled down to things like the FED's interest rate, because the big guy in charge admitting that shit sucks doesn't help the situation any.

    16. Re:Keynsian Theories by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      This was his best theory:

      "Comfort and habits let us be ready to forego, but I am not ready for a creed which does not care how much it destroys the liberty and security of daily life, which uses deliberately the weapons of persecution, destruction and international strife. How can I admire a policy which finds a characteristic expression in spending millions to suborn spies in every family and group at home, and to stir up trouble abroad?"

      (writing about Russia in 1925)

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    17. Re:Keynsian Theories by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      P P+I

      It's due to the fractional reserve system. When you take out a loan (thus owing principle plus interest) the bank creates the principle as a multiple of their reserves. The money did not exist before loaning it out to you (they do not subtract anything from their reserves). You now owe the bank back both the money they gave you plus interest. That interest was never created.

  8. oh, swell by eyenot · · Score: 1

    They never tell you THAT is going to happen.

    Yeah, so, now you know why you're never going to see me in a census download.

    --
    "Stratigraphically the origin of agriculture and thermonuclear destruction will appear essentially simultaneous" -- Lee
  9. 1940 regulation? by SirGarlon · · Score: 2

    Still I would rather have a 1940 size US government with a 1940 size budget and 1940 amount of federal regulations. (and a 2012 respect for civil rights)

    • Equal Pay Act of 1963
    • Civil Rights Act of 1964
    • Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967
    • Fair Housing Amendments Act of 1988
    • Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990

    All of the above and more are from the postwar period. I don't think you can have it both ways: 2012 respect for civil rights is only possible through 2012 regulation. One could say the same about clean water, food safety, highway safety, and other important issues.

    --
    [Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
    1. Re:1940 regulation? by mjr167 · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what not discriminating against people has to do with regulating the price of electricity. Also, how does groping people in the airport promote civil rights? Can you please enlighten us?

      You seem to implying that we would all be bigots if the government wasn't carefully watching over our shoulder to make sure we met our quotas.

    2. Re:1940 regulation? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      One could say the same about clean water, food safety, highway safety, and other important issues.

      No, no one would not. Water: dirtier now than in 1940, full of chlorine and chloramines and yet STILL biologically unsafe. Highway safety: Ticket speeders, ignore left lane cloggers even in states where it's illegal. Food safety: They're actually arresting people and pouring bleach on food that people want to eat, while promoting processed foods which are inherently harmful with deliberate lies from the NIH.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:1940 regulation? by SirGarlon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not claiming that all regulation is good. The examples you cite (regulating price of electricity, the TSA) are clear examples of stupid, counterproductive regulation.

      My position is that without Federal law to suppress a host of discriminatory practices, the bigots would still be in charge. Without Federal law to prevent dioxin in the ground water, companies would still be dumping toxic waste. The quality of life we take for granted did not magically emerge as we all became enlightened. It required the big stick of government regulation to stop the elite from abusing the rest of the public.

      --
      [Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
    4. Re:1940 regulation? by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      Well, the straight answer if I assume a libertarian stance for a moment, would be that there's a percentage of employers and hiring managers that are bigots of some sort. There are miscommunications, mistakes, and con-men. Which means that for a given industry that employs people, say power generation, you're going to have an average cost throughout the years for lost lawsuits, hiring lawyers, diversity training, and all that jazz. Then there's the FUD aspect which could potentially keep bad employees working even though a better worker is one firing away.

      That's the idea anyway. I'd say these laws help overcome social issues like racism and ageism which lets a large portion of society be more productive. And that outweighs the cost of up-keeping and dealing with these laws/regulations.

    5. Re:1940 regulation? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "...the bigots would still be in charge..." News flash - they still are! DC and every college campus is wall-to-wall bigots trying to destroy common sense and merit-based social norms. They are bigots of the worst stripe. What else could you expect when idiotic theories are rammed down children's throats for generations? Anybody who says that "minorities" or "the environment" (whatever that is!) are in better shape now than they were in 1940 knows nothing of the real world. And minorities based on behavior (criminals, homosexuals, but I repeat myself) are not worthy of any consideration whatever in a logical, rational society. We live in the kingdom of guilt. All hail government regulation!

    6. Re:1940 regulation? by drsmithy · · Score: 1

      You seem to implying that we would all be bigots if the government wasn't carefully watching over our shoulder to make sure we met our quotas.

      I think he's saying that without _laws_ to counteract discrimination, it would still be rampant. Regulations are just laws, after all.

      Given the sheer amount of crazy that broke out amongst a non-trivial chunk of white America just because a black got guy elected, not to mention the ongoing laws against gay marriage (to pick but two examples), it's hard to argue otherwise.

  10. Help Needed: Data Administrator by StoutFiles · · Score: 1

    Job requirements include typing/photocopying 18 TB's worth of sensitive data into digital format.

  11. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

    How could your name and age be used against you?

  12. I question the received wisdom by jdavidb · · Score: 1

    The pivotal year 1940 'marked the beginnings of a shift from a depressed peacetime to a prosperous wartime

    Baloney. Wartime might appear more prosperous in that a lot of people were suddenly "employed" by the government who were previous unemployed, but everyone still lived under rationing and scarcity. Real economic recovery didn't happen until 1946.

  13. Re:Prosperous wartime by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The farmer was selling more of his crops to feed the soldiers and factory workers than he was able to sell during the depression era prior to the war and therefore the war made him prosperous as well.

  14. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by ragefan · · Score: 1

    I guess if someone is dumb enough to list "Drug Dealer" as his occupation rather than "Unemployed".

    To be worried about the Census Bureau having your name, age and address is stupid, Law Enforcement can already get it from the IRS, SSA, or state DMV databases, and that's just a few and they are likely much more up-to-date than the Census Bureau's data.

  15. Better than 1911... by GrahamCox · · Score: 1

    It's really great that you can get such a relatively recent census, while people on it are still likely to be around. In the UK, the most recent one was 1911 (only made available after 100 years) which is slightly too long to be able to link it with living people. If you are doing genealogical research censuses are prime sources, but the 100 year rule makes it frustrating to bridge that last gap between the living and the dead.

  16. Slashdotted! by objekt · · Score: 1

    Oh great, the server is way busy. Now I'll have to wait for all the geeks to finish. :/

    --
    -- Boycott Shell
  17. The laws that established the Census go way back by wiredog · · Score: 1

    Actually, it's in the Constitution.

  18. Copyright vs Census by Immerial · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Anybody else find it interesting/sad that the time limit on copyrights is longer than the privacy time limit on the Census records? Just a clear indication that corporations are valued above people.

  19. Did too little by operagost · · Score: 1

    Keynesian economics did too little? We didn't have enough people performing useless "work" for the CCC? We didn't strongarm enough small business with the NRA until it was mercifully killed by the Supreme Court? A 97% income tax rate wasn't high enough? Confiscating the gold of citizens, then selling it to foreigners at a profit wasn't enough? Maybe just removing the protectionist, job-killing Smoot-Hawley tariff that Hoover had imposed would have been enough, but that's wasn't tried. I'm sure that more spending on various programs would have worked. After all, as his own Treasury Secretary Morgenthau exclaimed, "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. . . . After eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started . . . and an enormous debt to boot!"

    --

    Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
  20. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by JazzHarper · · Score: 1

    ...there is no statutory bar from the Census Bureau furnishing its data to Law Enforcement, the census clearly violates the 5th Amendment, and you cannot be compelled to participate.

    Sorry, but you're clearly wrong on all three points.

    Posting anonymously was a good idea, though.

  21. "confirmed Keynesian economic theory" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's as likely to do this as confirm that god exists.

    The only thing the subsequent 20 years of data will "confirm" is that all of the economic rivals of the USA were destroyed during WWII, leading to great prosperity for the USA.

  22. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by Hatta · · Score: 1

    However, the Census bureau doesn't stop there. Have you seen the "American Community Survey"? They request extremely detailed information (what time do you go to work?) that could easily be used to victimize people. And if you refuse to answer, they threaten you with fines.

    Never mind that the Constitution only empowers the government to take a head count once every 10 years, not a detailed statistical sampling of 1/10th of the population every year. I ended up filling in the number of people in my household and sending it back. I got a few visits from Census officials every few days for a few months but they gave up eventually.

    --
    Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
  23. my living parents should in it by peter303 · · Score: 1

    The 1940 census data is organized by city blocks. I am not sure if they remember the streets they lived on that year. People moved a lot during the heard times.

  24. Silly Slashdot by Usefull+Idiot · · Score: 1

    "Get all 18TB of it while it's hot."

    You know we only accept quantification by the LOC Standard.

  25. Don't forget Death by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's not just about government spending. World War II killed fifty million people, thereby reducing the global supply of labor and driving up wages. THAT is probably what ended the depression.

  26. Racist facts of 1940... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In 1940 most of the big cities of the midwest, mid-Atlantic, and northeast were still predominantly white... and quite industrious and prosperous despite the toll taken on them by the Great Depression. For example Cincinnati had the huge Proctor & Gamble plants as well as steel mills and aluminum plants, Detroit was the center of all things automotive and machinery plants too, Pittsburg was king of the steel mills, Baltimore had shipyards and aircraft factories. The decline of these economic giants began in the 1950's with the onset of the urban decay brought on by a new kind of disruptive socio-political change. Look where these once-great cities stand today and form your own conclusions.

  27. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by Qzukk · · Score: 1

    Sorry, but you're clearly wrong on all three points.

    He's only wrong right this second. Don't forget that the government changed the rules before. They'll change them again when it suits them.

    --
    If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
  28. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The census is a matter of requirement, not empowerment. They have to conduct it. What information is gathered in that process is not defined as a restriction, but a minimum.

    Your objections that it is limited to a bare head count are manufactured from your personal belief, not explicit in the Constitution.

    If you want that, work to make it explicit rather than taking it as implied given presumption.

    For me, the duties of government are sufficiently encompassing that I prefer them to have knowledge to shape their actions, and the Census is a cost-efficient baseline. Do you deny that the federal government does have powers and responsibilities and that to conduct them effectively, it would be better to be informed than ignorant?

    Does this mean I believe the government to be unlimited in its inquiries? Not at all, I just do not concur with your position which I see as extreme and irrational.

  29. Monsters like Grover and Elmo? by tepples · · Score: 1

    Mitt Romney: Monsters are people too my friend.

    Even PBS and Sesame Workshop are guilty of drilling this one into us.

  30. Poor scholarship by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

    The quote at the end is from David Kyvig, a historian at Northern Illinois University. I'm not going to debate economics or politics, but it disturbs me to see a scholar coming out and saying "This data will show X" before having analyzed it. It's assuming your conclusion and is just biased.

  31. Of course Keynesian stimulus works by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Whenever you mention his name it generates hoardes of angry blog posts and a few defensive responses. All of that Internet activity generates a tremendous number of pageviews and ad impressions. Keynes is stimulating the economy, even from beyond the grave.

  32. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by Hatta · · Score: 1

    Your objections that it is limited to a bare head count are manufactured from your personal belief, not explicit in the Constitution.

    I guess the 9th amendment doesn't exist then?

    For me, the duties of government are sufficiently encompassing that I prefer them to have knowledge to shape their actions, and the Census is a cost-efficient baseline. Do you deny that the federal government does have powers and responsibilities and that to conduct them effectively, it would be better to be informed than ignorant?

    Yes, absolutely. Nothing about that means it's OK for them to extract that information under threat of violence however. Forcing me to make any kind of declaration whatsoever violates my freedom of speech.

    Not at all, I just do not concur with your position which I see as extreme and irrational.

    And it's rational and not extreme at all to send government agents to my door asking personal questions and criminalizing me if I assert my right to privacy?

    --
    Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
  33. Which came first? Theory or data? by chubs · · Score: 1

    From the original post: "... we ought to be able to see more clearly how government spending bettered everyday life, confirmed Keynesian economic theory and revealed that, before the war, the New Deal did too little, rather than too much, to stimulate the U.S. economy." From the Sherlock Holmes novel A Scandal in Bohemia: "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." What I got from that article is "Now that we have data, we can pick and choose what suits the theory we have already decided as true". The attitude people ought to take if they want the actual truth rather than just some sort of affirmation (which few people do in politically charged issues such as Keynesian economics, sadly) is "let's look at this massive bunch of data and see what theory it suggests is true",

  34. Re:Poor scholarship... you done has been Trolled! by mspohr · · Score: 1

    Probably a bad idea to throw in that speculative quote since the entire thread has been hijacked by rabid pro/anti Keynesian posters... you've been trolled!
    I would have preferred to have more actual discussion of the data itself... how to search it, how to analyze it, etc. Instead, we just have people flaming about Keynes.

    --
    I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
  35. Disrespect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    tl;dr version: No disrespect was meant. The proxy baptism for your father was an act of love and friendship, which he is free to reject if he doesn't want it. I'm sorry if you were offended.

    The long version:
    I think you misunderstand the nature of the ordinance. Here's the logic we Mormons use to justify this:

    • We believe that to go to Heaven you must be baptized by proper authority - since we're True Believers, that's us these days.
    • Since God wants everyone to come to Heaven, He prepared a way for an authoritative baptism to be performed, even if someone didn't have or take the opportunity to do so in life: proxy baptisms for the dead.
    • Since God respects everyone's free will He won't force anyone to join Him in Heaven if they don't want to go; this means that if your Father chooses to reject the proxy baptism, God will respect that.

    Where's the disrespect in that? If we're right, and he needs it and accepts it, we're doing him a favor. If we're right, and he doesn't want it, it wouldn't matter if we'd done it or not. If we're wrong, then why does it matter?
    Furthermore, church policy is that names submitted for baptisms must be from the submitter's own family; this was reinforced just this past weekend during the semi-annual General Conference (prophet + apostles speaking to the entire church membership, happens twice a year). Unless a mistake was made you should be asking your own relatives to find out which one is a closet Mormon, not lashing out angrily at our entire community. When you find out who it was, please be kind; they truly believe that without this ordinance the gates of Heaven are closed to your Father, and they love him enough to arrange for them to be opened.

    By the way, you wrote:

    A person's right to practice their religion should be conditional on respect for others and their beliefs or lack thereof.

    Ummm... wow. Posting anonymously in case you take this post as disrespectful and try to take away my right to practice religion.

    I agree with you, though, that leaving others free to worship as they choose is important; it's one of the central doctrines of my religion:

    Eleventh Article of Faith: We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own conscience, and allow all men the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may.

    I realize that my tone in the long version has been somewhat defensive and can be interpreted as confrontational; I'm sorry about that. I respect your choice to live according to your own beliefs, and I hope you can see that I'm not trying to deprive your dearly departed Father of his choice either. It's not my intent to offend you, only to persuade you that whoever arranged for your Father to be baptized postmortem did so in a spirit of love.

    1. Re:Disrespect by ejasons · · Score: 1

      tl;dr version: No disrespect was meant. The proxy baptism for your father was an act of love and friendship, which he is free to reject if he doesn't want it. I'm sorry if you were offended.

      So you wouldn't be offended if some Satanic cult were to decide to "baptize" your father or grandfather?

      I'm surprised that you can't see why this practice would be considered offensive ... and disrespectful. If the guy wanted to be baptized, then he presumably would have done it while he was alive.

    2. Re:Disrespect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So you wouldn't be offended if some Satanic cult were to decide to "baptize" your father or grandfather?

      I'm surprised that you can't see why this practice would be considered offensive ... and disrespectful. If the guy wanted to be baptized, then he presumably would have done it while he was alive.

      Same AC here. No, I don't think I'd be offended. I've got two good reasons for that:

      1) if they didn't mean to offend me, why should I choose to be offended by it? That seems silly.

      2) if they did mean to offend me, but it has no actual effect on my life, why should I care? It doesn't do me any good to get bent out of shape if it doesn't really matter.

      In the first case, let's assume that the Satanic cult members were honestly trying to give me access to their vision of Heaven. They care about my Eternal welfare, and hope that I'll choose to accept their deity's blessing so I can join them in everlasting happiness after this life. How is that disrespectful? Sure, I don't accept their beliefs, but they're not compelling me to do anything or changing what I believe will happen after this life. What reason would I have to be offended by their offer of brotherhood and Eternal happiness? I'd sooner get offended by someone offering me a cup of coffee because they think I look tired. I don't drink coffee, but they mean well and are being friendly. Same with the friendly cultists.

      In the second case I'll take what you said the way you probably meant it: the Satanic cultists have performed a ritual damning my Father and Grandfather to Eternal torment in Hell. Because they hate me. And they want my ancestors to all suffer horribly in the afterlife. Forever. I hope to never offend anyone that badly. You know what, though.? I think they're delusional. I don't believe Satan or any other person has the ability to take my dead Grandfather's salvation from him; only my Grandfather's choices can do that (and he has few to make now that he's dead). As a result, unless they're performing this ritual on my front lawn I really don't care. Unless they were threatening to do me or my family actual harm I'd find it sorta amusing, in a sad way. I imagine that a rational Atheist would view Mormons and our work for the dead the same way - sadly delusional, but harmless.

      I'm troubled by your choice of analogy. Do you really feel that Mormons are devil worshipers, bent on damning your family to Hell through occult rituals? That we somehow hate you and want your family to suffer? If so, you have been sadly misled, and I'm sorry you feel that way. Nothing could be further from the truth. I see our work for the dead as a loving and respectful offer to accept Christ's true church and receive Eternal happiness. If the recipient of this offer is unwilling (or unable) to accept it then they are under no obligations. I honestly believe you and I are in case one above, and hope that you can choose not to be offended.

      PS - It occurs to me that the offense you may perceive is that of arrogance: that we feel we're right and you're wrong about God. Yeah, people get offended at that all the time. That's a completely different discussion, though; if you want to talk about it then reply and I'll gladly give you my opinions. In the mean time I've been long-winded enough for one post.

  36. Re:Poor scholarship... you done has been Trolled! by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

    The first thing I thought when I read the last paragraph of the summary was "the comments thread is going to be useless" ...

  37. Indexing by MavenW · · Score: 1

    The Mormons have plans to convert the entire pile of images into a searchable database -- in the next six months. I understand it will be available on-line for you and me to use free of charge.

    This is no small task. They have thousands of volunteers that have been doing this for years, with other indexing projects, but they have been ramping up for this project, training new volunteers and getting ready to jump on it. The program they use downloads images a page at a time from their storage server, and highlights various parts of the image while the volunteer types the data into input forms. Each page gets sent to two different indexers, who transcribe the data independently. The program checks the data, and any discrepancies are sent to a third arbitrator volunteer who decides which data is correct.

    So yeah, they're serious about this stuff. And although they try to maximize the accuracy, by the very nature of the amateur volunteers some mistakes are bound to slip through. If this project is anything like the 1930 census they already have indexed, you can still get to the original scans to check the data yourself. After you have found a record by searching the indexed database, if you have an account on ancestry.com, a click or two will bring up the scanned image of the page that name was on.

    As far as Mormons being a huge part of the traffic, I expect the indexing server needs a copy, but other than that, most of them will be downloading the images from their server. I don't expect there are many Mormons requesting their own copies if the data.

    As far as privacy goes, I've seen worse. I have a third cousin who is into genealogy. Somehow he got my family's personal information and stuck it on his web site--all about our mutual third great grandfather. One feature is a tree of all of his descendants. It has names, birthdates, family connections (mother's maiden name, for example) and such. After repeated requests to remove me from his list, we're still there. In contrast, the Mormon family search won't show you any information on people who are still alive. There's a good chance your data is in their database if you have a close family member who is Mormon. Just nobody can get to it until after you are dead. They seem to be making a reasonable effort to maximize genealogical research capabilities while trying to avoid privacy problems.

    1. Re:Indexing by lamber45 · · Score: 1

      Footnote ... link to said 1942 Census Indexing start-page and blog.

  38. Now the 9th? Keep reaching. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How would the 9th Amendment preclude something that is explicitly provided for in the Constitution as:

    "The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

    If you don't want to accept that they have the right to determine how to conduct the Enumeration, then you really will have to make them declare it.

    It's a duty in the Constitution. They are required to conduct it. Ensuring the cooperation of the participants through various means is completely rational. To do otherwise would be an abrogation of their aforementioned obligation.

    If you wanted to argue that putting you in jail for 10 years was cruel and unusual, that'd be fair enough, but a 100 dollar fine? Even the original census had a fine. Of 20 dollars. With inflation and all, that's considerably more than what it would be today.

  39. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

    They request extremely detailed information (what time do you go to work?) that could easily be used to victimize people. And if you refuse to answer, they threaten you with fines.

    So the root of the problem is the government lying to people for its gain. But rather than focus on the specific issue, it's a "OMG, Census evil" rant. They can't fine you for refusing to give the time you go to work. And nobody has ever been victimized from any census information, so worrying about that is insane, you might as well worry about Martians invading, it's happened as often and is as likely to happen.

    I see there being a serious problem with government institutionalizing lying. offering "help" with sentencing in return for pleas when the cop on the scene has no authority for such bargains. Undercover cops lying to entrap people (and yes, most undercover stings are entrapment, as the person would not have committed the crime they are charged with if the other person hadn't been solicitation the crime). Rogue Census workers threatening false repercussions for failure to answer non-required questions. That's not a census issue, that's a government problem, and picking on just the census indicates an unreasonable bias against it.

  40. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

    I guess the 9th amendment doesn't exist then?

    The Constitution explicitly includes the census, so there's nothing in there that could violate the 9th. Have you ever read the Constitution, or do you just know what you like and read only the parts that you think support you? There's no definition of "Census" in the Constitution, and even the first census included demographic questions (you know, the census written by the same people who wrote the Constitution). So your false re-write of history fails on every count.

  41. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by ragefan · · Score: 1

    If the government wants to kick in your door to frame you as a terrorist one morning, they are not going to the Census Bureau to find out that you answered that your leave your house at 7:15 every morning. More likely they will notice that your credit card data tells them you stop to buy a coffee from a Starbucks a few blocks away every morning at 7:20 and infer they should kick down your door before that.

    You forget Wal-mart and Target likely know more about you than the government does and they do not have a 72-year confidentiality clause.

  42. Re:Now the 9th? Keep reaching. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Make them declare it? Ugh, sorry for the lack of clarity caused by bad writing there.

    I should have written "make a more explicit declaration of your restrictions" or something. But as it is, they're pretty explicitly allowed to make it in such manner as they may by law direct.

    This includes the questions and the methods to facilitate cooperation. Much like say, Jury Duty, Taxes, or what not.

    If you want a government without the power of compulsion or coercion, you're in the wrong place.

  43. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by HungWeiLo · · Score: 1

    Survivors of the Japanese (and to a lesser extent German and Italian) internment camps can probably tell you.

    --
    There are a huge number of yeast infections in this county. Probably because we're downriver from the bread factory.
  44. Security by tbonefrog · · Score: 1

    So does this data allow me to figure out YOUR mother's maiden name?

  45. also love how they assume the theory before by decora · · Score: 1

    they have actually looked at the fucking data. social science is incredibly important, but tends to be run by fucking hacks.

  46. thanks for putting the theory out there by decora · · Score: 1

    as though it were as proven as gravitation. its not. its just a goddamned theory.

    1. Re:thanks for putting the theory out there by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      as though it were as proven as gravitation. its not. its just a goddamned theory.

      Everything is "just a goddamned theory".

      And nothing is more goddamned than the goddamned theory of the fictitious "free market".

      There has never been a free market, ever, in human history Markets do not occur in nature. There can never be a free market, and there is zero evidence that a free market would be anything but a complete disaster.

      Yet, it has become the basis for all conventional wisdom about our economy.

      On the other hand, there is evidence of the efficacy of Keynesian economics. It has existed. It has worked. Again and again in fact. It has worked in America, it has worked in Europe and it has worked in Asia. It has even worked in the Middle East (Israel).

      That's why it's a much more promising "goddamned theory" than the happy bullshit the Cato Institute keeps whining about in Reason Magazine.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  47. Re:Census Violates the 5th Amendment by drsmithy · · Score: 1

    This, kids, is why you should never underestimate the paranoid terror the average American lives with.

  48. expose the lolocaust lies now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    well well now you can find out how many jews entered ur country in 1940, and expose the lie that 6 (oh now revised to 3, oh no revised again to 2, oh no revised agaiin to 1.5, oh no was it even there?) million jooz were killed in Germany.

  49. Who the heck is David E. Kyvig? by JBaustian · · Score: 1

    Why is this quote from a relatively unknown Northern Illinois University professor being reprinted everywhere, as if his opinion about what the 1940 Census may contain is the most important factoid about the 1940 Census? It's not as if the debate over the efficacy of the New Deal had been set aside until the 1940 data might provide a definitive answer.

    I guess he was just so happy to be asked for his opinions by NPR, that he could not help but include his own "Big Government is Best" spin.

    But we already knew that the unemployment rate was still 14.8% by 1940, after seven years of New Deal policies. And there was evidence that the economy would have recovered much faster if the Roosevelt Administration had done the exact opposite from the policies it implemented. That's also the case today, with respect to the Obama Administration.