For Linux to do that, we will need a Common Conventions Commission - someone to make Ctrl-Z/X/C/V/P/F Undo/Cut/Copy/Paste/Print/Find in every program that uses those commands. If this can be done, we will succeed at something that even Microsoft struggles with - consistancy. The ability for a person to learn highly-portable operations is key to adoption.
Hardware vendors seem to be falling into Microsoft's scheme of constant upgrade, too. "Sure, your printer is only 2 years old, and will last another 4, but we don't support that printer, it hasn't been produced in a year, and we have to focus on our newer products."
We need a universal printer language for inkjets - this 4MB driver crap with special monitoring software for the print job, the printer activity, the printer cable, etc. is a waste of everyone's time. If they really want to bug us, they could just use Clippit for their interactive help.
Upgrades are a difficult thing - for smaller businesses particularly. We are running a combination of Win95 and Win98, with NT for our domain server and HP-UX 10.20
Upgrades are time consuming and costly. The only reason we will eventually upgrade is compatability with our vendors/customers. Until that time, Win98 is our OS of choice.
And screw Microsoft's Volume Licensing change. Save money by purchasing the right to purchase software at the current pricing before they raise prices.
I recall an article on WETA. Don't know about the entire rendering process, but they created a program called Massive - it allows each individual character to interact with the environment while still moving with others, i.e. soldiers shifting their weight over unever terrain while still marching.
Ah, the beauty of political correctness. We have gone from "developed" and "developing" to "First World" and "Third World" to "First Tier" and "Second Tier".
It's not politics, it's standing on risers. Doesn't it seem more insulting to say a country is "Second Tier" than "developing"?
"We're sorry, but your country didn't make the cut. You've been listed as Second Tier, and we're looking for First Tier material."
Companies could prevent deep linking in a heartbeat just by redirecting anything that wasn't referred by their domain. That way people couldn't even send "deep links" to friends in e-mail...
It's a great way to have huge amounts of unaccessible information on a web page... Like phone trees, only more pathetic.
I didn't intend to say that bloated code was "better" because it was faster to market. On the contrary. Bloated code runs slowly and is more prone to failure and security issues. I apologize for the implication.
As for newbie, I've only been using programming for 14 years, so I can see how you could make that mistake.
Apple's livihhod in hinged on the phrase, "It Just Works."
You can't make guarantees on hardware/software you can't control. Rather than producing a version (even unsupported beta) that would work for most but cause bad PR when it wasn't updated and started having issues, Apple chose to stay out of the PC market altogether.
With the availability of Windows/Linux versions of the software, people will be able to buy the iPod and use it with a PC - which offers Apple income as well as the chance that people will sit down at a Mac with their iPod someday and see how well "It Just Works."
-- If I say I'm wrong, I don't have you worry about you proving it.
Bloated code may not be best, but it gets out the door faster.
Can you imagine what would happen in Microsoft cleaned the code to Windows XP? Imagine, they release an 40-mb service pack that trim's the OS size down 300MB, decreases boot-time by 75%, improves program launch speed 300%, improves security, stability, and functionality; all while making the OS easier to upgrade, and implement.
Of course, when this release is finally out in 2057, it won't make much difference.
Sure, but what about the time spent in bug fixes, patches, etc? I supposed you can do something like this:
Standard programming takes A minutes per line on average.
Bug fix/patching programming takes B minutes per line on average.
Standard/Patch programming take up C/D percent of the time.
Average (mode, perhaps) programmer salary is E dollars.
Programming cost = E dollars * ((X lines * C * percent * A minutes) + (X lines * D percent * B minutes))
You could even go fancy and calculate lines-per-minute based on each langauge. But then, what about Man pages, documentation, support sites, etc. These are things you would pay for in commercial software. Shouldn't these be a factor as well?
Usage cap/w overage fees - easier to use up your 3gigs/mo if you can fo it 3 times faster...
Profit!
Makes sense to me. Either that, or they're buying into the same thing worldcom did - the Internet will be high-speed always-on access to everyone, so plan ahead!
I believe 1st world is acheived when the country is no longer entirely dependant upon the industrial sector, combined with some vague health, economic, and political statistics.
Third world countries are (in my strange little world) more dependant on industry/manufacturing. They tend to be in situations of political unrest. They usually do not have the medical care available to 1st world countries, and therefore mortality and life expectancy are higher and lower respectively. Also on the health point, disease may be more significant an issue, as vaccines can be quite expensive. This brings us to the economic point. While many 1st world countries are in debt, they have a more substantial economic base, and the average and median incomes are higher.
These are just my views of the situation.
-- But if I say I am wrong, then you don't have to disprove it.
If WorldCom were to close, other large providers (AT most likely) would buy up their existing fiber and hardware... They wouldn't have the money problems because many people would suddenly need service and might have to pay a little more up front to get it.
If you follow it more closely, you know that Apple's HW & SW costs/sales are tightly connected. This is why Apple pulled the Licensing for the OS some time ago - the loss of hardware sales was taking money away from OS development.
Also, the faster, cheaper hardware you refer to lacks one thing: Drivers.
Sure, people can write them, and companies can offer them, but then you might introduce the system instabilities that plague Windows. Apple thrives on the "it just works" to the point that it is part of the Switch campaign. PCs can't claim that because there are too many variables.
Think about it - Apple has even taken steps to prevent you from interfering with the Mac's functionality. Only the PowerMac G4 has slots - everything else connects with standardized, plug-and-play, hot-plug technologies. Unless you disconnect drives while they're in use or run unstable software, the Mac just keeps on running.
I don't think they'll try to stop XPlay becuase it doesn't have the one thing you can't get on a PC: the seamless, intuitive integration of a Mac.
Holographic effects aren't possible with this technology - there's nowhere near enough data.
Holograms require the interference pattern and light dispersal of an actual object, as well as a "control" beam, simultaneously hitting a photographic material. Without the incoherent light caused by a physical object, holography is impossible.
However, something like 3D images might be accomplished with multi-layer discs. I'm not sure how successfully the process would convert to multi-layer - CD burning doesn't have to worry about writing/reading to a layer above/below. If it was converted, I don't know how "deep" the images would appear to be.
To improve reception, we'll have to start using sub-dermal antennas. Just a few quick slices of the scalp and insert a permanent high-gain antenna. Of course, to reduce the radiation, we'll use lead shielding under the antenna. Then, to prevent lead poisoning, we'll use surgical stainless steel sheathing. By the time it's all over, your head will look like a baseball, but you'll get almost 2/3 the reception of a normal cell phone!
And there's always the screw-on external antenna - but that requires drilling a socket in your skull.
This will be new spy equipment before long. If you see anyone walking around with a huge grin on their face, you can safely assume that they are a secret agent, and their teeth are watching everything you do...
Actually, most HD's are quite rugged and magnetically shielded. You can pick them up with magnets and they still work. Just don't do it while they are spinning;)
I imagine the power drain is a ratehr annoying point. Even with less power use, the increased activity of the phone will probably warrant another charge indicator: 2 hours talk time, 3 days standby, and 8 hours hop-mode.
Anyways, why not modify this so low-power, discrete antennas can do the job instead of other phones? Putting a small repeater every few light poles on the highway or along streets in areas of poor reception would vastly improve reception (if not coverage) and avoid the need for as many towers.
Cell repeaters could be come low-cost items that people could install on their houses in rural locations, in areas of poor reception, and even inside large buildings/warehouses.
Sure, the phones could still offer peer-hopping should it be needed, but think how much more useful stationary mini-towers would be.
If you don't believe me, think about getting great signal from the lake, and getting disconnected as the car on the highway gets farther away... leaving you stranded for minutes or hours without signal until the next car drives by. Hope you have SMS.
If the system can record the performance with such stunning accuracy that it can be reproduced flawlessly anytime, have we not lost the "soul" of live music; the investment of emotion that the artist put into that specific performance?
Live, however, is more complex. Is the playback immediate (allowing for communications delay)? Thousands of people watched the Seattle Symphany Orchestra "live" over the Internet a few years back, and I didn't hear any quibbling over the communications delay. Unless you are physically present, nothing is technically live. Even old radio shows were performed live and broadcast immediately, and there was never any debate.
Perhaps the electronic reproduction method is confusing the question of live. If you consider the Disklavier capable of high-fidelity audio reproduction (assuming the piano is well tuned:), then would it not fall into the same category as a television or radio?
If the physically present and the telepresent compare notes and find the physical version better, would not the same thing be said of a televised concert without any complaint of it not having been live?
And what about the people crunching SETI@home or folding@home or distributed.net's challenges? Sure, 3 or 4K may not seem like much, but it adds up, and I imagine there will be a small decrease in the participation in these projects if users feel the need to conserve bandwidth.
Of course, we could start a distributed.net-style company, and try to get ISPs in on it... Have always-on connections offer reduced rates for use of your computer's extra time. That way people could get high-speed connections for less without really sacrificing anything.
That same theory might also make ISPs more lenient about multiple computers on a home connection. (don't know about your cable provider, but mine doesn't like that).
But x86 has more than a 20-year history, and Windows (in one form or another) has been around for 10+ years. There is a huge library of Wintel x86-compatible shareware and freeware, not to mention old business software.
Many companies still use older business software with their newer computers, and a change in architecture would involve a tremendous effort in converting/reproducing documents.
This is also a huge financial burdern. Normal cost of system upgrade, plus cost of new software to replace the defunct SW, plus cost & lost time of learning the new SW, plus cost & lost time converting old documents. It adds up, especially for smaller companies who barely afford new systems.
Presumably Intel has considered this. Any architecture change will have slow acceptance. COnsider the Macintosh; the change over from 680x0 to PowerPC was slow, and I can still run old 680x0 apps in MacOS X through Classic mode.
Maybe they'll make a P4/Itanium dual processor board that won't have the compatibility problems, just twice the price.
Linux, with it's ease of portability and open source could really help adoption of Intel's new architecture, actually. Microsoft will need emulators like Apple did or risk leaving many faithful users out in the cold.
All considerations aside, leaving x86 isn't really a bad thing. For all the speed we squeeze out of this silicon, it still has one foot firmly in the early 1980's.
-- Of course, if occurs to me now that it probably won't be an issue of any sort...
Intel may have the higher MHz, and they may be leaving x86 behind soon, but I think that the Hammer series will really hurt Intel if they can't pull people away from x86.
AMD seems to be betting on the difficulty that leaving x86 would cause for many companies, and I can't blame them.
If we all go with Intel's new architecture, we'll soon be needing emulators to run programs from all the under-funded software companies.
And if we lose x86, they'll have to just start calling it XFree.;)
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For Linux to do that, we will need a Common Conventions Commission - someone to make Ctrl-Z/X/C/V/P/F Undo/Cut/Copy/Paste/Print/Find in every program that uses those commands. If this can be done, we will succeed at something that even Microsoft struggles with - consistancy. The ability for a person to learn highly-portable operations is key to adoption.
Hardware vendors seem to be falling into Microsoft's scheme of constant upgrade, too. "Sure, your printer is only 2 years old, and will last another 4, but we don't support that printer, it hasn't been produced in a year, and we have to focus on our newer products."
We need a universal printer language for inkjets - this 4MB driver crap with special monitoring software for the print job, the printer activity, the printer cable, etc. is a waste of everyone's time. If they really want to bug us, they could just use Clippit for their interactive help.
Upgrades are a difficult thing - for smaller businesses particularly. We are running a combination of Win95 and Win98, with NT for our domain server and HP-UX 10.20
Upgrades are time consuming and costly. The only reason we will eventually upgrade is compatability with our vendors/customers. Until that time, Win98 is our OS of choice.
And screw Microsoft's Volume Licensing change. Save money by purchasing the right to purchase software at the current pricing before they raise prices.
I recall an article on WETA. Don't know about the entire rendering process, but they created a program called Massive - it allows each individual character to interact with the environment while still moving with others, i.e. soldiers shifting their weight over unever terrain while still marching.
They are also using Shake from Nothing Real for compositing. Not sure about anything else they use, though.
Ah, the beauty of political correctness. We have gone from "developed" and "developing" to "First World" and "Third World" to "First Tier" and "Second Tier".
It's not politics, it's standing on risers. Doesn't it seem more insulting to say a country is "Second Tier" than "developing"?
"We're sorry, but your country didn't make the cut. You've been listed as Second Tier, and we're looking for First Tier material."
Companies could prevent deep linking in a heartbeat just by redirecting anything that wasn't referred by their domain. That way people couldn't even send "deep links" to friends in e-mail...
It's a great way to have huge amounts of unaccessible information on a web page... Like phone trees, only more pathetic.
We'll start seeing signs on web pages:
Deep linking by permission only.
Deep linkers will be prosecuted.
Deep linking allowed.
But, like "No Trespassing" signs, the notices will have to be every so many web pages, and must be signed with 128-bit encryption. ;)
I didn't intend to say that bloated code was "better" because it was faster to market. On the contrary. Bloated code runs slowly and is more prone to failure and security issues. I apologize for the implication.
As for newbie, I've only been using programming for 14 years, so I can see how you could make that mistake.
Apple's livihhod in hinged on the phrase, "It Just Works."
You can't make guarantees on hardware/software you can't control. Rather than producing a version (even unsupported beta) that would work for most but cause bad PR when it wasn't updated and started having issues, Apple chose to stay out of the PC market altogether.
With the availability of Windows/Linux versions of the software, people will be able to buy the iPod and use it with a PC - which offers Apple income as well as the chance that people will sit down at a Mac with their iPod someday and see how well "It Just Works."
--
If I say I'm wrong, I don't have you worry about you proving it.
I think Microsoft has proved that true.
Bloated code may not be best, but it gets out the door faster.
Can you imagine what would happen in Microsoft cleaned the code to Windows XP? Imagine, they release an 40-mb service pack that trim's the OS size down 300MB, decreases boot-time by 75%, improves program launch speed 300%, improves security, stability, and functionality; all while making the OS easier to upgrade, and implement.
Of course, when this release is finally out in 2057, it won't make much difference.
Sure, but what about the time spent in bug fixes, patches, etc? I supposed you can do something like this:
Programming cost = E dollars * ((X lines * C * percent * A minutes) + (X lines * D percent * B minutes))
You could even go fancy and calculate lines-per-minute based on each langauge. But then, what about Man pages, documentation, support sites, etc. These are things you would pay for in commercial software. Shouldn't these be a factor as well?
No gnome syndrome here...
Makes sense to me. Either that, or they're buying into the same thing worldcom did - the Internet will be high-speed always-on access to everyone, so plan ahead!
Perhaps we are forgetting something here...
Does anyone ever talk about 2nd World countries?
I believe 1st world is acheived when the country is no longer entirely dependant upon the industrial sector, combined with some vague health, economic, and political statistics.
Third world countries are (in my strange little world) more dependant on industry/manufacturing. They tend to be in situations of political unrest. They usually do not have the medical care available to 1st world countries, and therefore mortality and life expectancy are higher and lower respectively. Also on the health point, disease may be more significant an issue, as vaccines can be quite expensive. This brings us to the economic point. While many 1st world countries are in debt, they have a more substantial economic base, and the average and median incomes are higher.
These are just my views of the situation.
--
But if I say I am wrong, then you don't have to disprove it.
If WorldCom were to close, other large providers (AT most likely) would buy up their existing fiber and hardware... They wouldn't have the money problems because many people would suddenly need service and might have to pay a little more up front to get it.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.
If you follow it more closely, you know that Apple's HW & SW costs/sales are tightly connected. This is why Apple pulled the Licensing for the OS some time ago - the loss of hardware sales was taking money away from OS development.
Also, the faster, cheaper hardware you refer to lacks one thing: Drivers.
Sure, people can write them, and companies can offer them, but then you might introduce the system instabilities that plague Windows. Apple thrives on the "it just works" to the point that it is part of the Switch campaign. PCs can't claim that because there are too many variables.
Think about it - Apple has even taken steps to prevent you from interfering with the Mac's functionality. Only the PowerMac G4 has slots - everything else connects with standardized, plug-and-play, hot-plug technologies. Unless you disconnect drives while they're in use or run unstable software, the Mac just keeps on running.
I don't think they'll try to stop XPlay becuase it doesn't have the one thing you can't get on a PC: the seamless, intuitive integration of a Mac.
Holographic effects aren't possible with this technology - there's nowhere near enough data.
Holograms require the interference pattern and light dispersal of an actual object, as well as a "control" beam, simultaneously hitting a photographic material. Without the incoherent light caused by a physical object, holography is impossible.
However, something like 3D images might be accomplished with multi-layer discs. I'm not sure how successfully the process would convert to multi-layer - CD burning doesn't have to worry about writing/reading to a layer above/below. If it was converted, I don't know how "deep" the images would appear to be.
--
Zig.
To improve reception, we'll have to start using sub-dermal antennas. Just a few quick slices of the scalp and insert a permanent high-gain antenna. Of course, to reduce the radiation, we'll use lead shielding under the antenna. Then, to prevent lead poisoning, we'll use surgical stainless steel sheathing. By the time it's all over, your head will look like a baseball, but you'll get almost 2/3 the reception of a normal cell phone!
And there's always the screw-on external antenna - but that requires drilling a socket in your skull.
This will be new spy equipment before long. If you see anyone walking around with a huge grin on their face, you can safely assume that they are a secret agent, and their teeth are watching everything you do...
Time to go into the lead-lined tarp, tent, and awning business.
Yes, you too can protect yourselves from the prying eyes (infra-red or otherwise) of high-altitude aircraft and satellite telemetry.
Come visit Crazy Al's House 'O Lead and find out what deals await you!
Actually, most HD's are quite rugged and magnetically shielded. You can pick them up with magnets and they still work. Just don't do it while they are spinning ;)
I imagine the power drain is a ratehr annoying point. Even with less power use, the increased activity of the phone will probably warrant another charge indicator: 2 hours talk time, 3 days standby, and 8 hours hop-mode.
Anyways, why not modify this so low-power, discrete antennas can do the job instead of other phones? Putting a small repeater every few light poles on the highway or along streets in areas of poor reception would vastly improve reception (if not coverage) and avoid the need for as many towers.
Cell repeaters could be come low-cost items that people could install on their houses in rural locations, in areas of poor reception, and even inside large buildings/warehouses.
Sure, the phones could still offer peer-hopping should it be needed, but think how much more useful stationary mini-towers would be.
If you don't believe me, think about getting great signal from the lake, and getting disconnected as the car on the highway gets farther away... leaving you stranded for minutes or hours without signal until the next car drives by. Hope you have SMS.
If the system can record the performance with such stunning accuracy that it can be reproduced flawlessly anytime, have we not lost the "soul" of live music; the investment of emotion that the artist put into that specific performance?
Live, however, is more complex. Is the playback immediate (allowing for communications delay)? Thousands of people watched the Seattle Symphany Orchestra "live" over the Internet a few years back, and I didn't hear any quibbling over the communications delay. Unless you are physically present, nothing is technically live. Even old radio shows were performed live and broadcast immediately, and there was never any debate.
Perhaps the electronic reproduction method is confusing the question of live. If you consider the Disklavier capable of high-fidelity audio reproduction (assuming the piano is well tuned :), then would it not fall into the same category as a television or radio?
If the physically present and the telepresent compare notes and find the physical version better, would not the same thing be said of a televised concert without any complaint of it not having been live?
And what about the people crunching SETI@home or folding@home or distributed.net's challenges? Sure, 3 or 4K may not seem like much, but it adds up, and I imagine there will be a small decrease in the participation in these projects if users feel the need to conserve bandwidth.
Of course, we could start a distributed.net-style company, and try to get ISPs in on it... Have always-on connections offer reduced rates for use of your computer's extra time. That way people could get high-speed connections for less without really sacrificing anything.
That same theory might also make ISPs more lenient about multiple computers on a home connection. (don't know about your cable provider, but mine doesn't like that).
But x86 has more than a 20-year history, and Windows (in one form or another) has been around for 10+ years. There is a huge library of Wintel x86-compatible shareware and freeware, not to mention old business software.
Many companies still use older business software with their newer computers, and a change in architecture would involve a tremendous effort in converting/reproducing documents.
This is also a huge financial burdern. Normal cost of system upgrade, plus cost of new software to replace the defunct SW, plus cost & lost time of learning the new SW, plus cost & lost time converting old documents. It adds up, especially for smaller companies who barely afford new systems.
Presumably Intel has considered this. Any architecture change will have slow acceptance. COnsider the Macintosh; the change over from 680x0 to PowerPC was slow, and I can still run old 680x0 apps in MacOS X through Classic mode.
Maybe they'll make a P4/Itanium dual processor board that won't have the compatibility problems, just twice the price.
Linux, with it's ease of portability and open source could really help adoption of Intel's new architecture, actually. Microsoft will need emulators like Apple did or risk leaving many faithful users out in the cold.
All considerations aside, leaving x86 isn't really a bad thing. For all the speed we squeeze out of this silicon, it still has one foot firmly in the early 1980's.
--
Of course, if occurs to me now that it probably won't be an issue of any sort...
Intel may have the higher MHz, and they may be leaving x86 behind soon, but I think that the Hammer series will really hurt Intel if they can't pull people away from x86.
AMD seems to be betting on the difficulty that leaving x86 would cause for many companies, and I can't blame them.
If we all go with Intel's new architecture, we'll soon be needing emulators to run programs from all the under-funded software companies.
And if we lose x86, they'll have to just start calling it XFree. ;)