They failed often enough so it was profitable for the average drug store to have a tube tester with a cabinet for replacement tubes. Also, note that it often took one tube failure to take a TV down, so the MTBF for a tube was much longer than for a TV.
My iPhone is over three years old, so I wait when an OS upgrade is available and google things like "iPhone 5S iOS 10.3" before going ahead with it. I've saved myself some useful life that way.
You shouldn't talk about things you know nothing about.
Ironically, you're making up figures all over the place, assuming that a $10/hour technician can be trusted to make board-level repairs reliably, and ignoring such things as warranties and part stocking. You also are making up part costs and the probability that a faulty motherboard can be reliably fixed with a $2 part.
Do you have sources on smartphones and face-to-face meetings? I haven't noticed meeting people less frequently. There have been occasions where having smartphones made it easier to get together, or would have if we'd had them back then.
I haven't noticed smartphone being made out of fragile glass. I've noticed them being made out of really tough glass, which does exist.
They're designed to be compact and functional, without regard for ease of repair. Glue is often used to hold parts in where space is at a premium. Batteries designed to fit the case can maximize the battery volume. New OSes can take advantage of new features in phones, and different tradeoffs made possible from faster processors, so there's no reason to expect them to continue to run on older phones. Would you expect W10 to run on your old Win3.1 machine? The OS is different because the user interface has to be different. As a general rule, a program well adapted to a desktop will suck on a phone.
Of course, you're talking about weather predictions, which are very different from climate predictions. A climate prediction would be something like "the 2020s will see significantly more hurricane activity than the 2010s", and that's cutting the time slices rather fine.
How we stop the gravy train is listening to the scientists, and not the ones who make up scandals, deceive people, and perform other sleazy activities.
Scientific consensus tends to be on things they're extremely confident about. Climate predictions are exceedingly complicated to begin with, and they depend heavily on what we as a species do. The result is that predictions are generally in the form of a range, and often have conditions attached. I'd check the IPCC reports, myself, and I've got other things to do right now than look through them.
News media tend to report the extremes, because they draw eyeballs. If there's fifty papers saying 10-20cm, and one saying half a meter, the half a meter prediction is very likely to be reported. Six meters is a tremendous rise, and would be catastrophic, so that attracts a lot of eyeballs. The media is not a reliable source for science.
The Earth changes, true, but not normally this fast. This amount of warming over ten thousand years would be no trouble at all. Over a few decades, it causes problems.
Moreover, studying what's going on is essential to planning ahead.
The Dutch dyke system has been good for claiming land that started under sea level, but there's lots of problems with pushing it too far. It doesn't work for seaports, for example, since you don't want to wall the ocean off. The Netherlands is small with a high population density, and the US seaboard isn't.
They may have decreased over time, but it seems highly unlikely that it's from increasing the population. I'd imagine that we've been doing things about these things that have had significant effects, enough to overcome some population pressure.
It's been a long time since I read Ehrlich's book, but I seem to remember a discussion of national triage, including a recommendation to forget about India until assorted disasters cut its population. Obviously he didn't predict what we could do to improve the situation.
Apocalypse scares generally don't come out of science. I haven't noticed climate scientists as a group talking about apocalypses either, just some very serious ill effects.
Causation isn't what it used to be. Ask any quantum physicist.
Higher CO2 causes warming. I'm not entirely sure about warming increasing CO2, but there might be an effect. Apparently in past warmings, CO2 has lagged. However, based on isotopic analysis, we know where the extra carbon is coming from. In addition, we can roughly calculate the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, and it's enough to cover the increase.
Elsevier adds prestige. If you're an academic, and need to establish a reputation (which is most of them, really), you publish in journals other people will read and cite. It would be of benefit to the academic community if nobody published in an Elsevier publication, but it would have to be coordinated, because if the mass of academics in a field didn't do it the ones that published in Elsevier would win. Think of it as a very large and complicated Prisoner's Dilemma.
You're describing work-for-hire, and hyperextending it.
The newspaper or magazine gets money from readers and advertisers, neither of whom have the copyright.
Stuff the Federal Government produces in the US can't be copyrighted. However, the US government gives out money for various things, and research that is simply funded by the Government can be. There can be provisions in grants for release of copyright (I believe that started in the health sciences, but I'm not involved) or at least the opening of research, but that's not universal.
I keep thinking about shoggoths and Old Ones and the thing from Campbell's "Who Goes There?" (the basis of the movie "The Thing", if I've got the title right).
That depends on what determines the zone of habitability. If its partly due to temperature and partly due to something else, like soil or day length, the change will reduce the zone of habitability.
There's also the fact that the Earth's climate depends a lot on what we do. At that time, we were seeing more crap in the atmosphere reflecting sunlight than we do now. There were nuclear winter theories based on having lots and lots of big firestorms caused by the bombs. There are current geoengineering proposals based on deliberately putting that sort of crap into the atmosphere.
I'd suspect the workers would get even more irked if, during their 12-hour days 7 days a week, Musk popped in now and then, looking fresh and rested, between minivacations.
My in-laws used to have a cabin that we'd go to frequently. The first hour was on the interstate. After that, it was about three and a half hours on lesser highways. Interstates do not take you everywhere people want to go.
20-minute bathroom breaks? What do you feed your kids? Do you ever travel any distance with multiple adults? Half an hour to get gas and pick something up from the convenience store? How do you make it take that long?
I don't live in a particularly large metro area, but I've driven north on Friday afternoons in the summer. The freeway gets packed. There's going to be plenty of cars that don't have the range to get to their destination, perhaps because they were used for commuting that day. Now, suppose I drive into a charging station and there's as many cars waiting as there are stations, and each car will be there for a minimum of twenty minutes. There's going to need to be a lot more charging stations than there are gas pumps.
If I'm pulling off the highway for a meal, I drive to a gas station and refuel, and I drive to a restaurant and eat, not necessarily in that order. These don't have to be particularly close to each other. If the restaurant is a mile away from the gas station, who cares? With an electric, I have to eat somewhere in walking distance of the gas station. (Maybe easy walking distance, since not everyone I hang out with is fully mobile.)
This is a false equivalence. Depending on the charging station(s) and restaurants, it may not be a big deal, but it's not the same thing.
And I can put 400 miles of range in my car in a few minutes. This is enough time to pop into the attached store and pick up something that's probably unhealthy, and switch drivers (I've never gone that far by myself). I've driven six hours between lunch and dinner more than once (well, me and the other drivers), and if I had to stop to let the car recharge for an hour I wouldn't be able to do that as conveniently.
The Mythical Man-Month was a book written by someone personally responsible for one of the largest software projects the world had seen up to that point. He got some things seriously wrong, and reflected on them. Some of his ideas have proven to be wrong (no information hiding, chief programmer team), a lot have become common practice, and some people still need to learn.
Slashdot Mirror
They failed often enough so it was profitable for the average drug store to have a tube tester with a cabinet for replacement tubes. Also, note that it often took one tube failure to take a TV down, so the MTBF for a tube was much longer than for a TV.
Depends. Does the replaced digitizer demand more power, or at least different power? Did the installation nick or otherwise damage the battery?
My iPhone is over three years old, so I wait when an OS upgrade is available and google things like "iPhone 5S iOS 10.3" before going ahead with it. I've saved myself some useful life that way.
Ironically, you're making up figures all over the place, assuming that a $10/hour technician can be trusted to make board-level repairs reliably, and ignoring such things as warranties and part stocking. You also are making up part costs and the probability that a faulty motherboard can be reliably fixed with a $2 part.
Do you have sources on smartphones and face-to-face meetings? I haven't noticed meeting people less frequently. There have been occasions where having smartphones made it easier to get together, or would have if we'd had them back then.
I haven't noticed smartphone being made out of fragile glass. I've noticed them being made out of really tough glass, which does exist.
They're designed to be compact and functional, without regard for ease of repair. Glue is often used to hold parts in where space is at a premium. Batteries designed to fit the case can maximize the battery volume. New OSes can take advantage of new features in phones, and different tradeoffs made possible from faster processors, so there's no reason to expect them to continue to run on older phones. Would you expect W10 to run on your old Win3.1 machine? The OS is different because the user interface has to be different. As a general rule, a program well adapted to a desktop will suck on a phone.
I'd guess that a very small number of the people buying those care that they're not locked down. That's more of a geek point of view.
Of course, you're talking about weather predictions, which are very different from climate predictions. A climate prediction would be something like "the 2020s will see significantly more hurricane activity than the 2010s", and that's cutting the time slices rather fine.
How we stop the gravy train is listening to the scientists, and not the ones who make up scandals, deceive people, and perform other sleazy activities.
Scientific consensus tends to be on things they're extremely confident about. Climate predictions are exceedingly complicated to begin with, and they depend heavily on what we as a species do. The result is that predictions are generally in the form of a range, and often have conditions attached. I'd check the IPCC reports, myself, and I've got other things to do right now than look through them.
News media tend to report the extremes, because they draw eyeballs. If there's fifty papers saying 10-20cm, and one saying half a meter, the half a meter prediction is very likely to be reported. Six meters is a tremendous rise, and would be catastrophic, so that attracts a lot of eyeballs. The media is not a reliable source for science.
The Earth changes, true, but not normally this fast. This amount of warming over ten thousand years would be no trouble at all. Over a few decades, it causes problems.
Moreover, studying what's going on is essential to planning ahead.
The Dutch dyke system has been good for claiming land that started under sea level, but there's lots of problems with pushing it too far. It doesn't work for seaports, for example, since you don't want to wall the ocean off. The Netherlands is small with a high population density, and the US seaboard isn't.
They may have decreased over time, but it seems highly unlikely that it's from increasing the population. I'd imagine that we've been doing things about these things that have had significant effects, enough to overcome some population pressure.
It's been a long time since I read Ehrlich's book, but I seem to remember a discussion of national triage, including a recommendation to forget about India until assorted disasters cut its population. Obviously he didn't predict what we could do to improve the situation.
Apocalypse scares generally don't come out of science. I haven't noticed climate scientists as a group talking about apocalypses either, just some very serious ill effects.
Causation isn't what it used to be. Ask any quantum physicist.
Higher CO2 causes warming. I'm not entirely sure about warming increasing CO2, but there might be an effect. Apparently in past warmings, CO2 has lagged. However, based on isotopic analysis, we know where the extra carbon is coming from. In addition, we can roughly calculate the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, and it's enough to cover the increase.
Elsevier adds prestige. If you're an academic, and need to establish a reputation (which is most of them, really), you publish in journals other people will read and cite. It would be of benefit to the academic community if nobody published in an Elsevier publication, but it would have to be coordinated, because if the mass of academics in a field didn't do it the ones that published in Elsevier would win. Think of it as a very large and complicated Prisoner's Dilemma.
You're describing work-for-hire, and hyperextending it.
The newspaper or magazine gets money from readers and advertisers, neither of whom have the copyright.
Stuff the Federal Government produces in the US can't be copyrighted. However, the US government gives out money for various things, and research that is simply funded by the Government can be. There can be provisions in grants for release of copyright (I believe that started in the health sciences, but I'm not involved) or at least the opening of research, but that's not universal.
I keep thinking about shoggoths and Old Ones and the thing from Campbell's "Who Goes There?" (the basis of the movie "The Thing", if I've got the title right).
You have provided an excellent, if short, account of the Y2K problem.
That depends on what determines the zone of habitability. If its partly due to temperature and partly due to something else, like soil or day length, the change will reduce the zone of habitability.
There's also the fact that the Earth's climate depends a lot on what we do. At that time, we were seeing more crap in the atmosphere reflecting sunlight than we do now. There were nuclear winter theories based on having lots and lots of big firestorms caused by the bombs. There are current geoengineering proposals based on deliberately putting that sort of crap into the atmosphere.
I'd suspect the workers would get even more irked if, during their 12-hour days 7 days a week, Musk popped in now and then, looking fresh and rested, between minivacations.
My in-laws used to have a cabin that we'd go to frequently. The first hour was on the interstate. After that, it was about three and a half hours on lesser highways. Interstates do not take you everywhere people want to go.
20-minute bathroom breaks? What do you feed your kids? Do you ever travel any distance with multiple adults? Half an hour to get gas and pick something up from the convenience store? How do you make it take that long?
I don't live in a particularly large metro area, but I've driven north on Friday afternoons in the summer. The freeway gets packed. There's going to be plenty of cars that don't have the range to get to their destination, perhaps because they were used for commuting that day. Now, suppose I drive into a charging station and there's as many cars waiting as there are stations, and each car will be there for a minimum of twenty minutes. There's going to need to be a lot more charging stations than there are gas pumps.
If I'm pulling off the highway for a meal, I drive to a gas station and refuel, and I drive to a restaurant and eat, not necessarily in that order. These don't have to be particularly close to each other. If the restaurant is a mile away from the gas station, who cares? With an electric, I have to eat somewhere in walking distance of the gas station. (Maybe easy walking distance, since not everyone I hang out with is fully mobile.)
This is a false equivalence. Depending on the charging station(s) and restaurants, it may not be a big deal, but it's not the same thing.
And I can put 400 miles of range in my car in a few minutes. This is enough time to pop into the attached store and pick up something that's probably unhealthy, and switch drivers (I've never gone that far by myself). I've driven six hours between lunch and dinner more than once (well, me and the other drivers), and if I had to stop to let the car recharge for an hour I wouldn't be able to do that as conveniently.
The Mythical Man-Month was a book written by someone personally responsible for one of the largest software projects the world had seen up to that point. He got some things seriously wrong, and reflected on them. Some of his ideas have proven to be wrong (no information hiding, chief programmer team), a lot have become common practice, and some people still need to learn.