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Rising Seas Set To Double Coastal Flooding By 2050, Says Study (phys.org)

Coastal flooding is about to get dramatically more frequent around the world as sea levels rise from global warming, researchers said Thursday. Phys.Org reports, "A 10-to-20 centimeter (four-to-eight inch) jump in the global ocean watermark by 2050 -- a conservative forecast -- would double flood risk in high-latitude regions, they reports in the journal Scientific Reports." From the report: Major cities along the North American seaboard such as Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, along with the European Atlantic coast, would be highly exposed, they found. But it would only take half as big a jump in ocean levels to double the number of serious flooding incidents in the tropics, including along highly populated river deltas in Asia and Africa. Even at the low end of this sea rise spectrum, Mumbai, Kochi and Abidjan and many other cities would be significantly affected. To make up for the lack of observational data, Vitousek and his colleagues used computer modeling and a statistical method called extreme value theory. "We asked the question: with waves factored in, how much sea level rise will it take to double the frequency of flooding?" Sea levels are currently rising by three to four millimeters (0.10 to 0.15 inches) a year, but the pace has picked up by about 30 percent over the last decade. It could accelerate even more as continent-sized ice blocs near the poles continue to shed mass, especially in Antarctica, which Vitousek described as the sea level "wild card." If oceans go up 25 centimeters by mid-century, "flood levels that occur every 50 years in the tropics would be happening every year or more," he said.

206 comments

  1. Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Call in all the surfers!

    1. Re:Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

      If the sea level is even really rising at all. There's no evidence that it is. What are the monitoring stations that measure the ocean powered by? Solar Panels! Who wants to sell solar panels? The Obama-voting free-health-for-everyone tree-hugging leftists.

    2. Re:Yeah by vtcodger · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Sea Levels really are rising. But not very fast.

      The good news is that the article is, like most of the stuff BeauHD posts, more or less unmitigated nonsense. Despite mankind's practice of building way to much stuff below the level likely to experience storm surge in a major storm, a few inches of sea level rise in the next 50 years clearly isn't going to do all that much additional harm.

      The bad news is that there is no reason to expect sea levels to stop rising any time soon. Here's a link to the NOAA webpage for the tide gauge at The Battery in NYC. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.... If you look carefully at the picture of the gauge, you'll see there is probably less than a meter clearance between the high tide line and the top of the dock. A few centuries of 20-30cm/century sea level rise and "they" are going to have a problem. And not only with the dock. The street, parking area, and building behind the dock all appear to be at about the same level as the dock.

      BTW. The evidence is thin, but it looks like sea levels in the last interglacial period 120,000 years ago peaked 5 meters (16 feet in American) above current sea level.

      For whatever reason, I couldn't get to historical tidal gauge data for the Battery from the NOAA site (503 error). Maybe I clicked the wrong link. Here's a link to a chart from a reputable source (psmsl.org)
      http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q...
      Note that a couple of cm per century of the Battery seal level Rise is thought to be due to tectonic forces -- The Battery is thought to be sinking a bit due to glacial isostasy.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    3. Re:Yeah by RabidReindeer · · Score: 5, Interesting

      a few inches of sea level rise in the next 50 years clearly isn't going to do all that much additional harm.

      There are people in Miami (and other Florida coastal cities), who beg to differ. And I'm not talking boo-hoo poor little rich people losing some of their exclusive ocean view. Low-lying lower-class neighborhoods are already suffering and city officials are having to deal with the thorny issue of raising funds to buy them out. Another unexpected consequence is that clearances on bridges are being shortened, and boating brings in a lot of money in Florida.

      Jacksonville has an upscale neighborhood that also serves as a major traffic connector to downtown. Several years back they had to put pumps in the streets because when the Autumn deluges begin and the Spring High Tide coincides, the St Johns River flows backwards up the storm drains. It has not only caused considerable distress to local merchants, the streets became impassible (to say nothing of the road damage).

      Personally, I'm just waiting for the first incursions on Mar-A-Lago. I expect Trump to change his position on climate really fast once that happens. And I'm sure that more than one of the Trump Towers around the world is fairly close to sea level.

      Look at depth charts of the Florida Keys and you'll notice that a 1-foot fluctuation in sea level would greatly increase or decrease the land area down there. Whole islands would appear or disappear.

      Also it should not noted that not all consequences of rising seas roll in from the coast lines. Florida is largely porous limestone rock. It gets its water from aquifers in that rock, and sea water can and does intrude into that rock. Orlando, which is one of the most land-locked cities in the entire state has been fighting for decades with Brevard County for water resources and the last thing they want is for any of that water to turn brinier. Tampa Bay has already seen shortages because they pipe in water from inland sources but have seen pipe failures. And the less said about the fragile state of fresh water in the upscale areas of Fort Myers and Venice, the better.

    4. Re: Yeah by cyber-vandal · · Score: 1

      Must be great to know you'll never lose your job and never have a really expensive illness.

    5. Re:Yeah by necro81 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Personally, I'm just waiting for the first incursions on Mar-A-Lago. I expect Trump to change his position on climate really fast once that happens. And I'm sure that more than one of the Trump Towers around the world is fairly close to sea level

      Nah, he'll probably just find someone else to blame.

      Or, given his age, undoubtedly high blood pressure, and obesity, he may well be dead before his monuments to opulent gaudiness are flooded.

    6. Re:Yeah by vtcodger · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "There are people in Miami (and other Florida coastal cities), who beg to differ."

      They seem to have built parts of Miami Beach below the level reached by the highest high tides. Imprudent of course, But profitable if you can sell the property before the moon and sun next align in an unfortunate configuration. Maybe they should have put a bit more thought into approving building permits.

      There are a number of tidal gauges in Florida and several in the Miami area.

      Here's what NOAA has to say about Miami Beach

      "The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
      interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
      1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years. "
      https://tidesandcurrents.noaa....

      Don't take my word for it, nor your local newspaper's and certainly not the Slashdot editor's. I'd encourage you to check both NOAA.gov and psmsl.org for yourself.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    7. Re:Yeah by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 3, Informative

      Looking at the long-term NOAA data it looks like the earth's crust is still rebounding from the last ice age, as much of the northern extremes are generally rising (sea level "falling") and the middle and southern areas are sinking (sea level "rising"). Not much we can do about that, is there? Other than use a solution the Dutch have implemented for the last several centuries, anyway...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    8. Re:Yeah by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      You can't do that when the bedrock is swiss cheese. Florida is in trouble.

    9. Re:Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The vast, vast majority of rising tide claims are actually disappearing shorelines. Meaning, it's not that water level is rising, but that the shoreline is disappearing and/or sinking.

    10. Re:Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the sea level is even really rising at all. There's no evidence that it is.

      Yep, ignore all the evidence out there. Fucking idiot

    11. Re:Yeah by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      The flooding in Miami actually has nothing to do with sea level. It's because the limestone it sits on is so porous, and ocean water pools in the pores of Floridian limestone. Beachside condos lie perilously close to the edge of the sea, with little land reaching over six feet above sea level. The majority of U.S. citizens who live at an elevation of four feet or less reside in south Florida.

      A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study of the causes of flooding in the Miami area found that surface wind stress, rather than temperature or melting glaciers, is “the most important force that affects ocean water levels in a coastal flood situation along the west-central coast of Florida.” Tides overflow into the low land of Miami Beach because it’s really, really windy on the ocean there.

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    12. Re:Yeah by Layzej · · Score: 2

      Maybe they should have put a bit more thought into approving building permits.

      In some states they've legislated ignorance of sea level rise in order to appease developers.

      "The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years. "

      The half a foot rise over that period can mean the difference between being just above sea level at high tide instead of just below. But the big problem is the acceleration that's taking place.

      Since 1993 (the beginning of the satellite record) we've seen global mean sea level increasing by about 3 millimeters per year or about 1 foot in 100 years.

      Over the second half of that period, global mean sea level rose by 3.8 mm/year or about 1 1/3 feet over a century. At this rate by 2050 we should expect about 6mm /year or 2 feet per century. And by 2100, 10 mm/year or over 3 feet per century.

    13. Re:Yeah by dywolf · · Score: 1

      A few inches causes substantial harm via storm surge.
      And its a greater than 1:1 increase, that is 1 more inch of sea level results in more than 1 inch of additional surge (surge is a complicated beast).
      That's billions of gallons of additional flood waters and their associated damage costs.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    14. Re:Yeah by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      Pretty much complete nonsense. They are comparing two different sets of instrumentation that should conceptually show the same quantity, but don't. Then calling the difference "acceleration". That's nuts.

      Neither the tidal gauges by themselves nor the satellites by themselves http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ show any significant acceleration although both are a bit noisy. Why are they different? Lots of people would like to know that. FWIW, I think the satellites are somewhat more likely to be right planetwide. But one should probably use nearby tidal gauges for local planning since they reflect local susidence, etc. Satellites are complicated beasts working at (or perhaps beyond) the limits of what is possible. There is potential for some sort of calibration error.

      And both the satellites and the tidal gauges show more sea level rise than can be accounted for by known ice melt plus ocean thermal expansion plus aquifer pumping minus impoundments. But no one currently has much faith in that estimate.

      Need I point out that building roads and structures right at Highest High Water (A term I just made up) really isn't a very good idea. OK for parking lots and campgrounds perhaps. But for stuff you'll miss if its destroyed, you want highest high water plus highest likely storm surge plus maybe a meter or two.

      Actually, it wouldn't do any harm for planners to assume three or more feet of seal level rise in the next century. It'd work better than what they are doing now. But "science" it is not.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    15. Re:Yeah by Layzej · · Score: 1

      They are comparing two different sets of instrumentation that should conceptually show the same quantity, but don't. Then calling the difference "acceleration". That's nuts.

      Wrong. Check the link again. The acceleration is seen in the satellite data: The research also finds the rate of global mean sea level rise increased by 0.8 millimeters (.03 inches) per year during the second half of the satellite period.

      And both the satellites and the tidal gauges show more sea level rise than can be accounted for by known ice melt plus ocean thermal expansion plus aquifer pumping minus impoundments.

      Again, read the link:

      the new study reconciles this gap and shows the satellite measurements are accounting for all potential factors influencing sea level rise.

    16. Re: Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The rise we've seen in sea levels thus far is mostly from thermal expansion.

      The idiots... I mean deniers... are too stupid to understand that most of the heat we've trapped, along with a large portion of our excess carbon dioxide, have been absorbed into our oceans.

      Most of thr ice that we've seen melt so far has been sea ice, and so not contributing to sea level rise, since it's already ON the water.

      However, the idiocracy is also unaware of the fact that a lot of thar sea ice is what's holding back ice sheets resting on land, whose flow toward the sea is speeding up.

      The idiocracy, i.e. the denier community, is also ignoring the undeniable fact that so far nearly every prediction that the climate community has warned the world about has in fact come to pass, though in most cases earlier than predicted because the climate community's single biggest blunder had been to overestimate the sheer power of human stupidity.

    17. Re:Yeah by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Strange that it's accelerating if that's the case. Stranger still that it was falling until about 150 years ago... if isostatic rebound is playing a role near the arctic, possibly it's because we're in a period of rapid deglaciation in that region?

    18. Re:Yeah by RabidReindeer · · Score: 1

      Maybe they should have put a bit more thought into approving building permits.

      In Florida???? Open palm, insert money. Approved.

      The point is, there are lots of neighborhoods where people didn't settle simply to be close to the beach - they needed to be close to their jobs. Especially considering that mass transit is a joke in the Sunshine State. You can pontificate about the wisdom of building on at-risk ground, but some of these areas were built on a half-century or more ago, and the biggest concern back then wasn't sea-level rise, it was hurricanes. There's no place in the state more than about 150 miles from some major coast and the highest point in the whole state is about 300 feet above sea level. Anywhere more than about 20 feet up is practically mountain territory.

      Some perspective. Go out offshore 2-3 miles or so in some of the waters surrounding Florida and look down. You might find the remains of an old Indian village. About 10,000 years ago, when the last Ice Age was not so distant, this was dry land and people lived there.

    19. Re:Yeah by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "Florida is largely porous limestone rock. It gets its water from aquifers in that rock, and sea water can and does intrude into that rock."

      As a teen, I had an interest in Florida's water system due to the unique plantlife in the everglades (mainly saracenias).

      It was stated by multiple sources back in the 1980s/90s that if anything happened to mess up the water supply into northern Florida from the Okefenokee swamp (which is fed from Georgia/Alabama/South Carolina), the entire state could end up effectively uninhabitable within 2 decades without massive investment in desalination projects - and that one of the biggest risks to continued habitability was anything interfering with the massive swamp that runs along the length of central florida, as this was the main thing keeping saltwater at bay.

      Apparently this has been of increasing concern since the early 1970s when the population started heavily encroaching on swampland.

    20. Re:Yeah by RabidReindeer · · Score: 1

      I wonder about either your sources or your memory. It's got the right ideas, but the wrong geography.

      Most of the State of Florida gets its water from the Floridan Aquifer, which runs down the state. The Aquifer's sources, however, are probably not primarily the Okefenokee Swamp, which is located just North of Jacksonville, whereas the Aquifer flow is primarily towards SSE. The Okefenokee is, however head of the Suwanee River system, which does flow SW before terminating in the Gulf of Mexico. The Suwanee and its tributaries are also fed by Aquifer Springs.

      Central Florida has a ridge running down it. There are swamps to the East, heading the St. John's River, but the surface water in much of Central Florida is in lakes, many of which originated as sinkholes.

      There is a smaller second aquifer located roughly under Miami International Airport, which supplies South Florida. Until desalination plants were built at Key West and Tampa, those 2 aquifers were basically it for water, discounting the occasional cistern.

      The Floridan Aquifer has tested positive for agricultural chemicals (pesticides and fertilizers). The state's famous orange groves contribute a lot, as do golf courses.

  2. Well... by helpfulcorn · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Interesting I was just talking to my wife about how with the rise of the ocean you could/would have to turn Manhattan into a new Venice, and with our apartment being on the 10th floor, we may be sitting on some water-level real estate. The worst part is it's only half a joke and a real future issue to deal with, just look at what happened with the subways during the last major storm, it doesn't take much of a rise to sink the city.

    1. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      It doesn't help that as a background signal NYC is sinking about a foot a century due to isostatic rebound since the end of the last ice age. And that the gravity fed sewers and storm drains were built more than a century or two ago.

    2. Re:Well... by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Correction that was James Hannsen I always do that for some reason

    3. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      James Hansen do what? Lie about what he said? No, deniers do that. you know, people like you and the "news" sources you like to listen to because they agree with what you want to be the case.

      https://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-West-Side-Highway.htm

      Reporter: What would be different in 40 years if CO2 has doubled?
      Hansen: That subway would be flooded.

      Deniers: HE SAYS IT WILL BE FLOODED IN 20 YEARS!!!!!

      "When I interviewed James Hansen I asked him to speculate on what the view outside his office window could look like in 40 years with doubled CO2. I'd been trying to think of a way to discuss the greenhouse effect in a way that would make sense to average readers. I wasn't asking for hard scientific studies. It wasn't an academic interview. It was a discussion with a kind and thoughtful man who answered the question. You can find the description in two of my books, most recently The Coming Storm."

    4. Re:Well... by vtcodger · · Score: 2

      "It doesn't help that as a background signal NYC is sinking about a foot a century due to isostatic rebound since the end of the last ice age."

      Probably not that much. But it is probably sinking. Nothing obviously wrong with the notion of glacial isostasy. But the numbers look to be hazier than most folks assume. Sometime in the next decade or two we'll probably have the solid GPS derived estimated of Battery tidal gauge elevation change accurate to say 100 microns. Then (and likely only then) will we know for sure how much of the observed 27-30 cm (11-12 inches) per century sea level rise observed at the Battery is due to the instrument sinking rather than the ocean rising.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    5. Re:Well... by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      LOL how long has it been and how much has CO2 increased ?

    6. Re:Well... by necro81 · · Score: 1

      turn Manhattan into a new Venice

      On the plus side, at least significant portions of Manhattan are build on solid bedrock. Venice, not so much: most of those buildings have a foundation of timber piles...driven into clay...in a lagoon.

      On that subject, writer Kim Stanley Robinson has a new book about a Venice-like NYC. Here is an overview and interview with the author.

    7. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL! If it had been 50 years ago it still wouldn't change the fact that you claim the response was a query to "What would happen in 20 years" when in fact it was 40 years, not 20. And if it had quadrupled, that still would not change the fact that you lied by omission when you removed the "if CO2 doubled" so that this rather important caveat to the prediction was excised from your fake narrative.

      And in answer to your question, not 40 years and about half a doubling. Which still shows that the claim Hansen made is not proven wrong like you claim in your wilful ignorance.

      Now, ggiven you "think" (if indeed such a word can be used in what dribbles out of that barely functioning brainstem onto the keyboard) that if one person makes one mistake or failure then every single claim or piece of evidence of "that side" is proven a failure and should be considered falsified in its entirety, and given that you have just done so for the morons on the denial side, you have now proven to YOUR satisfaction that every single claim you deniers have made and the entire claim that there's something nefarious going on about climate science is 100% falsified because of that one error alone.

      Because to fail to accept that is to show your asinine claims about Hansen are things even you yourself do not believe in and are completely faked.

      When your doctor told you that if you didn't stop smoking you'd be needing an iron lung in 20 years so you stopped smoking, did you claim your doctor wrong in his prediction when you're still here talking complete bollocks 17 years later? And if so, are you going to start smoking and try to catch up with the smoking you had missed out on? Or is it different when it's YOUR life on the line, fuck anyone else's life.

    8. Re:Well... by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1
      Actually, in this article Hansen said it would occur by 2008.

      Article was written in 2001.

      "While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”" http://www.salon.com/2001/10/2...

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    9. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That guy is a douche bag. He is the whole reason everyone thinks there is a problem. He modified the surface temperature datasets that most scientific papers use as a source. Climate change is James Hansen.

    10. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      IDK, wood has a pretty good track record when submerged.

      https://science.slashdot.org/story/12/12/24/0430231/worlds-oldest-wooden-water-wells-discovered

      I build large foundations with caissons/pile and if I had to build something that would last as long as possible I wouldn't discount the low-tech submerged hardwoods. Rebar corrodes eventually (especially in salty water) and there is no easy way to accurately test if/when that happens on a buried pile. Some of the newer reinforcements, like fiberglass, use polymers that we're not sure will hold up over the long haul.

    11. Re:Well... by ooloorie · · Score: 1

      Interesting I was just talking to my wife about how with the rise of the ocean you could/would have to turn Manhattan into a new Venice

      It won't. Modern engineering can easily deal with this.

      Keep in mind that what you think of as "Manhattan" is constantly being rebuilt from the ground up anyway, so even if you (hypothetically) needed to raise every building by a few feet over the next 100 years, that wouldn't be a problem.

    12. Re:Well... by acrimonious+howard · · Score: 2

      To understand the discrepancy between these two published accounts, it helps to look at the timeline of events. The original conversation was in 1988. Ten years later, referring to his notes, Bob Reiss recounted the conversation in his book The Coming Storm. James Hansen confirmed the conversation and said he would not change a thing he said. After the book was published, Bob Reiss was talking to a journalist at salon.com about it. As he puts it,

      "although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years.”

      We can check back in 2028, the 40 year mark, and also when and if we reach 560 ppm CO2 (a doubling from pre-industrial levels). In the meantime, we can stop using this conversation from 1988 as a reason to be skeptical about the human origins of global warming.

    13. Re:Well... by dave420 · · Score: 0

      "I don't want to believe this stuff, so here's a guess I made where we don't have to!"

    14. Re:Well... by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      That article is bullshit - and the very reporter being quoted has said so.
      The actual prediction was about what would happen if
      1) CO2 levels doubled
      2) In 40 years (not 20 as reported in Salon)

      It has been nowhere close to 40 years yet, and CO2 levels have not doubled.

      Hansen's prediction may actually come true - but his prediction was contingent on two conditions - neither of which has yet occurred.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    15. Re:Well... by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      I guess it's one more example of poor science articles written by the general media.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    16. Re:Well... by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      Here's the NOAA data, it certainly does look like the general trend is the northern climes to have a falling sea level (rebound) and the middle/southern climes to have a rising sea level (also rebound). There are a few exceptions along the ring of fire where we have huge plates subducting, but other than that... If it really were global warming, wouldn't we see a much more even growth in sea level everywhere, or at least one not quite so well delineated by the 49th parallel?

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    17. Re: Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I desperately need to believe this stuff, so I'm going to throw myself into any shitbrained theory that reinforces it.

      See how it works?

    18. Re:Well... by silentcoder · · Score: 2

      Partly yes. The other part is just human error. The reporter being quoted, had originally interviewed Hanson in 1988 for his book "The oncoming storm", and that's when Hanson made the prediction, along with those caveats. The book includes the prediction accurately by the way.

      Nearly a decade later the reporter got a phone call from the guy doing the Salon story - and by his own admission - remembered the timeframe wrong that's where the 20 years comes from), leaving out the "if CO2 doubled" part was entirely on Salon though.

      If Salon had bothered to contact Hanson himself, or looked up the original quote in the book - they could have avoided publishing a terrible article that utterly misrepresented what the scientist actually said. But then - Salon has never been all that good at rigorous journalism and even the best publications at that tend to be terrible at reporting science news. Salon is good at political opinion writing - and shouldn't be treated as anything more than the opinion pages of a typical newspaper. Actual news reporting is not something they are any good at.

      Nothing wrong with political opinion writing, it is an important part of journalism - but it isn't news and it definitely isn't rigorous enough to use as a source on science.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    19. Re:Well... by aicrules · · Score: 1

      Since most of this particular branch of this discussion is reasonable statements made in an attempt to garner understanding, I think it's safe to say this here that we just don't know. Understanding climate-level facts from such limited data is ultimately going to always be a guess. Heck even if we were capturing all the known variables 100% over a period 10 years we really wouldn't even know if we're still missing a significant amount of data because of unknown variables. That's why all the climate chicken littles get such a negative response. They try to present things as facts and proofs that they have a 0.001% degree of certainty. Maybe they will end up being right, but arm flailing won't help. Neither will impugning the character of people who point out how paper thin their conclusions are.

    20. Re:Well... by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      The fact is that NO city, ever, was built for permanence.

      They exist for one reason: convenience. They are (generally) opportunistic agglomerations of people in time around wherever it happened to be easiest to unload/drop that heavy shit we were carrying from some other place.

      They are, like all human creations, ephemeral. Sure, the timeframe may exceed human lifetimes, but with the success of humanity some of our oldest continually-inhabited places are now THOUSANDS of years old.

      Ironically, the *oldest* places tend to be the least in fear, as generally our ancient ancestors (lacking our astonishing capabilities (arrogance?) to control and direct our environment) were extremely respectful of long term natural processes. During Hurricane Katrina, the oldest French parts of New Orleans were basically fine: it was the more recent 'fill ins' by American industry that built in flood plains etc and ended up getting whacked when the dikes failed.

      Of course, they weren't always right as Canopus and Thonis-Heracleion would prove....

      Build a sandcastle on the beach, and ultimately, it will eventually get wiped out.
      Even if that sandcastle is made of millions of tons of concrete and rebar, and houses millions of people. "Eventually" is just a little bit longer.

      --
      -Styopa
    21. Re:Well... by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      If it really were global warming, wouldn't we see a much more even growth in sea level everywhere, or at least one not quite so well delineated by the 49th parallel?

      No. Even ignoring isostasy, if the Greenland ice sheet were to melt then sea level would go down near the cost of Greenland. This is from the gravitational attraction of the ice sheet on the ocean. The same is true near Antarctica.

      If both melt there would be limited change in sea level near the poles but large increases near the equator.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    22. Re:Well... by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      "how long has it been and how much has CO2 increased ?"

      Roughtly 30 years. and roughly.15% respectively

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  3. Seattle flooding? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Downtown Seattle is 150 feet above sea level.

    Sure, rising sea levles might inconvenience some businesses along Alaskan Way, but even Pike Place Market is 100% safe from ocean water for the next 100 years.

  4. Another End of the World scenario by Confused · · Score: 0, Troll

    It must be slow season for another End of the World scenario. As if the raise of about 3.5" between 1980 and today made us to swim to school in scuba gear.

    And just for fun, look at the End of the World scenarios from the 70ies, 80ies and 90ies, prediction how bad it'll be by 2020. None of them happened, they all got it wrong. Makes one wonder about the current crop of apocalypses.

    1. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Maritz · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why not just come straight out and say chinese/hippy conspiracy? Why bother with the pretense?

      Your current leader thinks it's fiction (along with most of slashdot of course), so that should be a great comfort to you. Nothing bad will happen.

      BTW, what 'crop' of apocalypses?

      --
      I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
    2. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Confused · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually, rising sea levels are no conspiracy but a fact. Given that the current sea levels are quite low over history of earth and that we're still coming out of an ice-age, rising sea levels are to expected. For one if it gets warmer, water expands and then all the ice melting in Antarctica, Greenland, Alaska (but not in the Arctic, because that ice already floats) need to go somewhere.

      Can we do anything about it? Not really, except moving further inland or building dykes like the Dutch do.
      Is that a reason to create panic just to make money with the fear of yet another apocalypse? I find that disgusting.

    3. Re:Another End of the World scenario by sl149q · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Sea levels where up to 6 meters higher 4000-6000 years ago.

      Prieto et al., 2016

      “Analysis of the RSL [relative sea level] database revealed that the RSL [relative sea level] rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m [above present] between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present] This RSL [relative sea level] curve was re-plotted by Gyllencreutz et al. (2010) using the same index points and qualitative approach but using the calibrated ages. It shows rising sea-levels following the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), reaching a RSL [relative sea level] maximum of +6.5 m above present at c. 6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], followed by a stepped regressive trend towards the present.”

    4. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Cipheron · · Score: 2

      That's not actually how the terminology works. The ice-age is the last 2.6 million years, due to the continental topography causing less mixing of tropical and polar waters. Within the Ice Age there are glacial and interglacial periods - relative amounts of freezing and thawing. We're in the middle of an interglacial that began 11000 years ago. but previous patterns covering 10000's of years aren't much good for predicting how climate is going to be impacted in the near future. Our particulated emissions exceed prehistoric incidents such as supervolcanoes that had noticeable climate effects.

    5. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why not just come straight out and say chinese/hippy conspiracy? Why bother with the pretense?

      I am sorry, he is citing predictions that didn't happen. What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions ?

      What do you call someone who pushes theories that don't make accurate predictions ?

      And with regard to your own attitude what do you call someone who is no longer looking at what is actually happening, and just shouting down anyone that disagrees with them ?

    6. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      and that we're still coming out of an ice-age,

      Inadvertently, you appear to have not cited a source for this assertion .

      Can we do anything about it? Not really, except moving further inland or building dykes like the Dutch do.

      Stop being alarmist.

      Is that a reason to create panic just to make money with the fear of yet another apocalypse? I find that disgusting.

      You are the one saying that there is nothing we can do except lie down and die. Are you disgusted with yourself?

    7. Re:Another End of the World scenario by gijoel · · Score: 1

      Is that a reason to create panic just to make money with the fear of yet another apocalypse? I find that disgusting.

      Or you know, stop pumping so much CO2 into the air, move away from a hydrocarbon economy, figure out ways of getting the carbon in our atmosphere underground again. That sort of stuff.

    8. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      I am sorry, he is citing predictions that didn't happen. What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions ?

      You mean like "The temperature isn't rising" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age" OR "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"?

      That kind of theory is what you mean?

      What do you call someone who pushes theories that don't make accurate predictions ?

      Well, what would you guys like to be called?

    9. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yeah, similarly, I had a bath last night - about 2 foot of water in there. It didn't flood my bathroom at all. So logically if I put in another 2 foot of water the bathroom would be equally dry.

    10. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      If I am not mistaken, you just told me I won, but you aren't willing to alter your opinion under any circumstances.

    11. Re:Another End of the World scenario by quonset · · Score: 2

      Your current leader thinks it's fiction (along with most of slashdot of course), so that should be a great comfort to you. Nothing bad will happen

      Not so fast. His Orangeness most certainly does believe in climate change. It's the very reason he cited in his application to build a sea wall for an Irish golf course. Specifically:

      "If the predictions of an increase in sea level rise as a result of global warming prove correct, however, it is likely that there will be a corresponding increase in coastal erosion rates not just in Doughmore Bay but around much of the coastline of Ireland. In our view, it could reasonably be expected that the rate of sea level rise might become twice of that presently occurring. ... As a result, we would expect the rate of dune recession to increase."

      Even more interesting is they used an Irish government's study about the effects of erosion through 2050, then said that study failed to take into account the effects of climate change. Which is why he petitioned to build the sea wall. Because of the effects of climate change.

    12. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are the one saying that there is nothing we can do except lie down and die. Are you disgusted with yourself?

      The Conservative point of view is that anything you cannot bomb into submission is the Will of Jesus and we should just accept it.

    13. Re:Another End of the World scenario by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      It's sad that you believe your own BS.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    14. Re:Another End of the World scenario by dcollins117 · · Score: 1

      Your current leader thinks it's fiction (along with most of slashdot of course)...

      It only seems that way. Most of us recognize the seriousness of climate change and have long since given up arguing with the very vocal minority that are spouting their denialist nonsense online. There's no point debating people who will not listen to much less have the ability to reason. Rest assured there are a great many intelligent Slashdotters out here, silently chuckling at the trolls who create strife just for fun, the paid shills, the politically motivated right wing shitposters, and the honest-to-goodness morons who are too stupid to face reality.

    15. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Xyrus · · Score: 2

      Why not just come straight out and say chinese/hippy conspiracy? Why bother with the pretense?

      I am sorry, he is citing predictions that didn't happen. What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions ?

      I call people who misapply scientific terminology idiots. There were no scientifically valid theories predicting the end of the world. Oh I'm sure you'll find a lot of hyperbolic articles and other nonsense, but there isn't a single peer reviewed paper from the 70's, 80's, or 90's making any claims of an apocalypse (other than the obvious ones, like asteroid impacts, the sun going red giant in a few billion years, etc.).

      What do you call someone who pushes theories that don't make accurate predictions ?

      Misinformed? Ignorant? Stupid? What do call people who continually use the word "theory" to describe idle speculation and other crap that has not been peer reviewed or otherwise substantiated?

      --
      ~X~
    16. Re:Another End of the World scenario by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      What do you think caused all the other apocalypse scares we've been enduring since the beginning of time? What made them all wrong, but this one is right for realzy-realz this time guise!

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    17. Re:Another End of the World scenario by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      >What do you call someone who pushes theories that don't make accurate predictions ?

      We call you science deniers, or sometimes we get specific and mention the particular science your're denying. Like evolution-denier or climate-change-denier.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    18. Re:Another End of the World scenario by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      > the trolls who create strife just for fun, the paid shills, the politically motivated right wing shitposters, and the honest-to-goodness morons who are too stupid to face reality.

      Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have mastered the dubious talent to be all those things at the same time.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    19. Re:Another End of the World scenario by tbannist · · Score: 1

      You are mistaken.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    20. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      There were no scientifically valid theories predicting the end of the world.

      Wow way to strawman and tautology.

      There were no scientifically valid theories predicting the end of the world

      Seeing as even the worst of global warming predictions don't predict the end of the world that seems a rather pointless statement.

      There are however over a hundred models for global warming, and even more predictions of "Dire Consequences" based on those models.

      Misinformed? Ignorant? Stupid? What do call people who continually use the word "theory" to describe idle speculation and other crap that has not been peer reviewed or otherwise substantiated?

      I'd call them James Hansen http://www.salon.com/2001/10/2...

      Here's another question for you what do you call someone who thinks peer review makes a paper correct ?
      Answer: Ignorant.
       

    21. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      We call you science deniers,

      We ?? You ??

      Glad to see you haven't gone all "Tribal" on this and are still thinking objectively.

    22. Re: Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Err what? You're incoherent.

      You are likely a Creationist-denier.

      And also, for that reason, a hypocritical fucking imbecile for making the statement that you did.

    23. Re:Another End of the World scenario by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      That "you" was singular. I was talking to you, personally.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    24. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Good for you, not everyone gets to be a personal We.

    25. Re:Another End of the World scenario by greythax · · Score: 1

      Can we do anything about it?

      Yes we totally can. There's not a lot humanity can't accomplish with the proper funding and will, but people like you think it will cost too much.

      Not really, except moving further inland or building dykes like the Dutch do.

      Gee, I wonder how much THAT will cost?

      Is that a reason to create panic just to make money with the fear of yet another apocalypse? I find that disgusting.

      The only thing that makes me panic is that people treat this idea so casually. I like not having a billion people knocking at my door looking for a new place to live. Personally, I find that level of apathy disgusting.

    26. Re:Another End of the World scenario by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      I never said the "we" was singular. You do seem to jump to whatever conclusions suit your preconceptions.
      That also, by the way, explains why you are on the wrong side of science - which is where this topic began in the first place.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    27. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      I never said the "we" was singular

      Oh, You weren't trying to dispute you were being tribal ?

      You do seem to jump to whatever conclusions suit your preconceptions.

      I don't know about that. So far I have been having fun watching you reveal yourself.

      So tell me more about this we you are apart of that calls me a science denier. How is membership in the set determined ? Is it a reflexive self identification ? Does the group require a knowledge of the theories they claim I am a denier of ?

    28. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Can we do anything about it? Not really,"

      Perhaps, but if your bathroom is on fire you don't "fix it" by dousing the rest of the house in gasoline. That is effectively what we are doing by dumping unfathomable amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere during a slight warming period.

    29. Re:Another End of the World scenario by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      "Is that a reason to create panic just to make money with the fear of yet another apocalypse? I find that disgusting."

      I imagine there are a lot of made-up, phoney jobs that depend on there being a crisis, though, with the vast majority of them being taxpayer funded.

    30. Re:Another End of the World scenario by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      But, but, but the computer models say...

      All these people really have is shoutiness and the full cooperation of the stupids in the media who are always looking for a compelling scare story to tell (so they can push those drug ads in your face).

    31. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Temperatures were much lower 4000-6000 years ago also. The claim that sea levels were six meters higher when the temperature was much cooler would be positing that global warming causes a reduction in sea levels.

      Assuming Prieto is correct, then global temperatures are actually decreasing or the sea level is actually decreasing, or both. Given that there is evidence in the opposite direction, there must be a global conspiracy by 97% of scientists, or one scientist: Prieto, is wrong.

    32. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >You mean like "The temperature isn't rising" or...

      How about "Whatever 'the temperature' of yours is doing, *we're* getting snow in May here"?

    33. Re:Another End of the World scenario by mpercy · · Score: 1

      I think you're right about taxpayer-funded crisis jobs...more specifically, it's not about climate change or environmentalism, it really hasn't been for a long time...it's about socialist economic policy--redistribution of wealth. Various leaders of the movement readily admit as much.

      (OTTMAR EDENHOFER, UN IPCC OFFICIAL): Basically it’s a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization. The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War... First of all, developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community. But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole.

      Christiana Figueres, leader of the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change: “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history.”

      Former U.S. Senator Timothy Wirth (D-CO), then representing the Clinton-Gore administration as U.S undersecretary of state for global issues, addressing the same Rio Climate Summit audience, agreed: “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”

      Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister: “No matter if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental benefits.... climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”

      Gus Hall, former leader of the Communist Party USA: "Human society cannot basically stop the destruction of the environment under capitalism. Socialism is the only structure that makes it possible."

      Daphne Muller, green-progressive-liberal writer for Salon: "This moment requires we the people to rethink democracy as a global mechanism for enacting policy for and by the planet."

      Peter Berle, President of the National Audubon Society: "We reject the idea of private property."

      David Brower, a founder of the Sierra Club: "The goal now is a socialist, redistributionist society, which is nature's proper steward and society's only hope."

      Emma Brindal, a climate justice campaigner coordinator for Friends of the Earth: “A climate change response must have at its heart a redistribution of wealth and resources.”

      Monika Kopacz, atmospheric scientist: "It is no secret that a lot of climate-change research is subject to opinion, that climate models sometimes disagree even on the signs of the future changes (e.g. drier vs. wetter future climate). The problem is, only sensational exaggeration makes the kind of story that will get politicians’ — and readers’ — attention. So, yes, climate scientists might exaggerate, but in today’s world, this is the only way to assure any political action and thus more federal financing to reduce the scientific uncertainty."

      Researcher Robert Phalen's 2010 testimony to the California Air Resources Board: "It benefits us personally to have the public be afraid, even if these risks are trivial."

    34. Re:Another End of the World scenario by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Apocalypse scares generally don't come out of science. I haven't noticed climate scientists as a group talking about apocalypses either, just some very serious ill effects.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    35. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      Won? What are you trying to win? A sticker?

      You didn't address the question.

      When you say : What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions you mean theories like: "The temperature isn't rising" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age" OR "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"?

      Is that the kind of theories you mean, or isn't it?

    36. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      Weird - the rest of us seem to get the point exactly, and you've missed it twice in a row.

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

    37. Re:Another End of the World scenario by dywolf · · Score: 1

      we call him crashmarik.
      now go the fuck away shill.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    38. Re:Another End of the World scenario by dywolf · · Score: 1

      no hes pointing out hte various bits of bullshit present in your very own post history that show that hte person you are talking about is yourself.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    39. Re:Another End of the World scenario by dywolf · · Score: 1

      we arent talking about fox news right now

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    40. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      no hes pointing out hte various bits of bullshit present in your very own post history that show that hte person you are talking about is yourself.

      Yeah Dywolf, I recall you bragging you sodomized your mother in your post history. Too much trouble to find, I'll just point it out.

    41. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      That's right we aren't and you are trying to make this about them.

      Hmmm

    42. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Try again I am talking about theories that predict the temperature of the earth in advance and fail to make accurate predictions. What do you call them ?

    43. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      we call him crashmarik.
      now go the fuck away shill.

      Yeah DW you have always had that great way of marshaling facts and logic.
      If you try really hard some day you too will be able to science. Just keep screaming it's the key for you.

    44. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

      If accurate prediction is the standard why do you believe a theory that only does so post hoc.

    45. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      Try again I am talking about theories that predict the temperature of the earth in advance and fail to make accurate predictions.

      Ah - you mean theories like:

      "The temperature isn't rising" or

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots" or

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing" or

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age" OR

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"

      Theories like these - which fail because their predictions are inaccurate?

      What do you call them ?

      I'd call the above theories failures that failed and have been debunked - but still get propagated by liars, and the people that propagate them I call liars.

      What do you call them?

    46. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      You seem to be struggling with the question - is it the language? Is it too difficult for you?

      I'll ask the question again: If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

    47. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      The temperature isn't rising"

      Oh hell why not give yourself a bigger target there and go for "The climate isn't changing"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age"

      It's almost as good as this. We are in an ice age right now, this is an interglacial period of the current ice age.

      Hint: When the poles are covered in ice it's an ice age.

    48. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      I am sorry, aren't you the guy who didn't understand we were in an ice age ?

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

      Well what accurate prediction do you assert I am denying ? So far all you have is name calling and it makes you look like a cultist. Maybe you are.

    49. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      I am sorry, aren't you the guy who didn't understand we were in an ice age ?

      I'm going to ask you for a citation, if you think that is true.

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

      Well what accurate prediction do you assert I am denying ? So far all you have is name calling and it makes you look like a cultist. Maybe you are.

      The following assertions by denialists have all proven to be inaccurate:

      "The temperature isn't rising"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

    50. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      I'm going to ask you for a citation, if you think that is true.

      To which
      A) that we are in an ice age ?
      B) That you didn't understand that fact ?

      Seeing as you don't understand what you are talking about, I'll have to ask you to demonstrate you are tall enough for this ride before we go any further.
      Come back when you can post a definition of Ice Age and Inter Glacial Period.

    51. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      Oh hell why not give yourself a bigger target there and go for "The climate isn't changing"

      If you guys can't get your stories straight, that's not my problem.

      It's almost as good as this. We are in an ice age right now, this is an interglacial period of the current ice age.

      Hint: When the poles are covered in ice it's an ice age.

      Thanks for telling me what I already know. Want to also tell me the name of my cat?

    52. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      To which

      You claimed that I didn't understand we are in an ice age: provide a citation.

      Looks like you've inadvertently failed to provide an answer to the question - I'll ask it again:

      The following assertions by denialists have all proven to be inaccurate:

      "The temperature isn't rising"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age"

      "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

    53. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      You claimed that I didn't understand we are in an ice age: provide a citation.

      I asked you to prove you were worth talking to, seeing as you have declined that's more than enough.

      If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would anyone believe cultists such as yourself that don't have any

      I'm done.

    54. Re:Another End of the World scenario by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      If you guys can't get your stories straight, that's not my problem.

      You guys ? Good to see that tribalism again.

        Is it Global warming this week , AGW, or climate change (something wherein any difference in the climate is proof of it happening)

      Thanks for telling me what I already know. Want to also tell me the name of my cat?

      No I actually try to bring facts, in this discussion your replies have veered towards the personal.

    55. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0
      You didn't do a very good job of convincing me that your theory explaining the recent warming trend has more predictive power than the prevalent theory - nor indeed, the theories proffered by denialists in the past.

      Which does raise the question: If accurate prediction is the measure to use, why would we believe the assertions of denialists, such as yourself?

    56. Re:Another End of the World scenario by KeensMustard · · Score: 0

      You guys ? Good to see that tribalism again.

      You chose this path so: maybe less of the whining.

      No I actually try to bring facts, in this discussion your replies have veered towards the personal.

      Excellent: let's begin with the facts then:

      When you say : What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions, you mean theories that haven proven wrong in fact such as: "The temperature isn't rising" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's sunspots" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's gravitational lensing" or "OK the temperature is rising, but it's because we are coming out of an ice age" OR "OK the temperature is rising, but it's not global warming but I won't tell you how I know"?

      Are those the kinds of theories you are referring to?

    57. Re:Another End of the World scenario by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      Sea level changes aren't that much of a problem in the longer term, even if they cause population movements.

      The bigger issue to think about is that in geological history, large spikes in CO2 levels go hand in hand with anoxic oceanic events and consequent dieoffs on land and sea. Half our atmospheric oxygen comes from the oceans so it's something to bear in mind, especially as some of the existing dead zones seem to be spreading.

  5. When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Will anyone notice? Will anyone hold the predictors accountable? Probably not.

    1. Re: When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      People do track these things for instance that book "The Population Bomb" was false, no ill effects from overpopulation have beset the earth, no problem we have today can be traced to it /s
      https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-06-01/why-paul-ehrlich-s-population-bomb-finally-bombed

    2. Re: When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funny.

      The way I see it, almost every problem we HAVE is due to there being too many people!

      Pollution, conflict, water scarcity, you name it, almost all of them would be less of a problem if there were less people running around the place.

    3. Re:When this doesn't come true... by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      They will be as accountable as the ones causing it when it turns out to be true.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    4. Re: When this doesn't come true... by Barsteward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      thats also because of the threat, things were done to mitigate it, i.e. improved techniques, grow more higher yield crops hence GM plus loads of other improvements like greenhousing. Its good that it didn't come to pass but if nothing was done then maybe it would be a lot different result, personally i rather see things done and predictions fail. A bit like dumping fossil fuels and using renewable energy will, at minimum, improve the lives and health of people in cities and towns around the world and those living near fossil fuel generators

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    5. Re:When this doesn't come true... by Salgak1 · · Score: 3, Informative

      You mean like when ABC predicted, in 2008, that New York City would be underwater in 2015 ?? Or that a carton of milk would be US$12.99, and a gallon of gas over US$9.00 ??

    6. Re:When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it were not to come true, then being arrested for the public discussion equivalent of shouting fire in a crowded theatre is a small price to pay and I'll happily pay it.

      If it were to come true, it's too late to kill you and all you other retards who were wrong, but whose actions ARE KILLING BILLIONS. So given if we're wrong, we've misspent some money and if you're wrong, you've killed billions, and if we DO wait, the predictors are no longer there to be held accountable, what do you suggest we do NOW?

      Risk billions of lives for your current ideology or risk billions of dollars for the current best science?

      Oh, and no, you don't get to claim people die if some money is spent on AGW avoidance rather than feeding the poor, because you could cut a fraction, FRACTION, from the military budget of the USA ALONE and it would fund several times the worldwide spend on AGW avoidance being done currently. If moving money around is to be done to save lives, move that.

      Hell, just make the AGW avoidance spend come out of military budgets alone. No aid or progression of the third world or world hunger/disease/whatever is touched, all that is happening is that money would be spent on AGW avoidance that was unnecessary that could have been spent making some more nuclear deterrent and more bullets and bombs.

    7. Re:When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So we should just err on the side of caution? Based on a theory which has, to date, not a single correct prediction to its name. We should just be careful though right? After all, it still could be true right?

      Based on your thinking here you will be a failure in life, if you aren't already.

    8. Re: When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I invite you to step up and be part of the solution then. Kill yourself.

    9. Re: When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pollution, conflict, water scarcity, you name it, almost all of them would be less of a problem if there were less people running around the place.

      That doesn't stand up to basic fact checking: all of those actually have decreased with increasing population size.

    10. Re: When this doesn't come true... by silentcoder · · Score: 2

      He's making the same logic error as those who claim Y2K was a hoax.
      They say "look everybody panicked and spent all that money to prevent a disaster and then almost nothing happened".
      But they ignore the fact that the only REASON almost nothing happened is BECAUSE we spent all that money and effort to prevent it.

      We had a warning, we had time to implement solutions, we did- and we averted a problem.

      The correct response is to be joyful at our success, not to claim that the success proves the problem wasn't real. The few things we couldn't avoid proves it was (even if you weren't there to see the other potential issues yourself). At least one person found herself unable to vote in the 1999 election because computers thought she was 2 years old, she was actually 102 - and had to go to court to get a special clearance to be able to vote. One nuclear plant shut down on new years day 2000 due to a Y2K error that made a monitoring computer think it hadn't had a check response from the safety monitors for over a hundred years and enter an automated safety-shutdown cycle.

      Small problems over-all, reasonably easy to manage and work around - but that's because the BIG problems were all fixed in several years of seriously intense and hard work by everybody from sysadmins and helldesk jockies to electronic engineers and chip designers.

      You cannot declare a prediction failed when serious action was taken to mitigate the conditions of the prediction - the entire point of the prediction was to encourage those actions and ipso facto their success actually VALIDATES the prediction.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    11. Re:When this doesn't come true... by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      Because, of course, ABC is a peer reviewed scientific institution well known for it's high quality research in various academic disciplines.

      Oh wait...

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    12. Re: When this doesn't come true... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      They may have decreased over time, but it seems highly unlikely that it's from increasing the population. I'd imagine that we've been doing things about these things that have had significant effects, enough to overcome some population pressure.

      It's been a long time since I read Ehrlich's book, but I seem to remember a discussion of national triage, including a recommendation to forget about India until assorted disasters cut its population. Obviously he didn't predict what we could do to improve the situation.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    13. Re:When this doesn't come true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I love straight-line extrapolations--they make for such great headlines.

      I live on the coast and in my neighborhood the waterline is exactly where it has been for decades.

      Plus, I'll believe it's important when the rich folks on the coastal islands stop spending millions on beach homes and have to sell them at bargain prices if at all.

    14. Re:When this doesn't come true... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      I live in europe. A gallon of gas IS over US$9.00

  6. So what can I personally do to help? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anything I can do that doesn't involve donating money or calling my congressman?

    1. Re: So what can I personally do to help? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Ride a bicycle. Eat less meat. Turn your thermostat up in the summer and down in the winter.

    2. Re:So what can I personally do to help? by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why do you think calling a congressman would change anything in any way?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    3. Re:So what can I personally do to help? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The only acceptable thing to do is pay lots of money to the government so they can 'solve' this urgent problem for us. Shovel tons of cash and its accompanying power to leftist who support the radical environmentalist movement. Give them unlimited power to tell you and everyone else what to do.That is the only way we will prevent doomsday.If you don't want to do that, you are a science denier.

  7. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If they could build a dike with sand and seaweed a 1000 years ago to hold back the sea, I think we will be just fine. No matter what happens.

    No need to be afraid of the sea, the Netherlands sure isn't.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands

    "The construction method of dikes has changed over the centuries. Popular in the Middle Ages were wierdijken, earth dikes with a protective layer of seaweed. An earth embankment was cut vertically on the sea-facing side. Seaweed was then stacked against this edge, held into place with poles. Compression and rotting processes resulted in a solid residue that proved very effective against wave action and they needed very little maintenance. In places where seaweed was unavailable other materials such as reeds or wicker mats were used."

  8. "Set to", is that the new "might" or "could"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Don't believe the hype,.

    1. Re:"Set to", is that the new "might" or "could"? by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Funny

      Why would I? I sit here about 1000m above sea level, all I'm asking for is to be allowed to hunt those for fun that try to escape the flood.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  9. Is there no common sense anymore? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Netherlands claimed land against the oceans hundreds of years ago. If they could do this in the dark ages, what can we possibly have to be concerned about now?

    I get that it makes sense to be "concerned", but common sense provides that no panicking is required.

    1. Re:Is there no common sense anymore? by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      but you need to be prepared and that is not panicking, panicking is where you do nothing and close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    2. Re:Is there no common sense anymore? by jandersen · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I get that it makes sense to be "concerned", but common sense provides that no panicking is required.

      I'm glad we agree on this. The panicking so far hasn't been from the scientists, who have simply been pointing out that there are problems coming up and that we'd better look at them, especially since we can address them. Most of the furore has come from sensationalist media and different interest groups on both sides; those that want us to abandon all modern industry in the name of nostalgic (but misguided) environmentalism, and those that only care for their own, short term interests and don't give hoot for what happens to others. Such as the fossil fuel industry - they know perfectly well that it would benefit the world both environmentally and economically, if we seriously developed renewable energy, and it would even benefit the energy producers themselves in the long term; but they don't want that - it would cost investments up front, and they wouldn't see the profits from that for maybe decades. That's where all the panic and yelling comes from, not from the climate scientists.

      However, at the end of all this, we DO have a problem, it is likely to become serious, even if to a lay-person a few millimeters or 5 degrees doesn't sound like much. And fortunately we can do something about it - a lot, in fact. But it is like all other 'repairs': at first you notice a mouldy spot on the wall paper in a corner, and you know that there is a small leak in the roof. If you fix it now, it will cost you a bit of sweat, standing on a ladder, maybe you have to spend a bit of money. Or you can wait until the whole roof is sagging, and you have to replace large parts of the structural timber and redecorate most of the house; and you will have call in a team of builders, you may have to move out for a couple of months and it will costs very serious money. I can't see why the choice is hard to make.

    3. Re:Is there no common sense anymore? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not a matter of choice. Human beings are inherently lazy and have an aversion to most forms of change. We procrastinate until the little problem becomes a very big problem, then we go all Chicken Little.

  10. It's time to give up the ship by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Although climate change (specifically global warming) is happening (unless you deny the laws of chemistry and physics), it's probably too late to realistically do anything about it. The real problem isn't the warming, it's the positive feedback -- warmer air holds more water vapor which is also a greenhouse gas, warmer temperatures melt the polar ice packs exposing darker ground/water, warmer temperatures unfreeze once frozen swampland which releases methane (and more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2), etc. All these effects feed back into the system pushing the equilibrium temperature of our planet that much higher.

    Just like starting a boulder rolling down a hill, the longer you wait to try to stop it, the more momentum it will build up, the harder it will be to stop it. Even if we magically eliminated all the CO2 emissions from industry, transportation, and the like tomorrow, we still have to deal with the existing CO2 in the system to have any hope of even slowing down the current warming.

    Add to all of the above that the CO2 currently in the system is so diffused (roughly 400 parts per million) that I don't know of any human technology that could possibly make a dent in the CO2 concentrations on a global atmospheric scale. So not only are we unable to retard the flow of CO2 into the system, we are technically unable to do anything significant with the CO2 that is already in the system.

    At this point, the boulder has been rolling down the hill long enough that it isn't possible to stop it; so, the only thing to do is give up and console ourselves with the notion that by the time the really catastrophic things come to pass most of us will be dead and buried and unaffected by the results anyway ;)

    I'm sure that millenials will be able to work it out -- lol.

    1. Re:It's time to give up the ship by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Add to all of the above that the CO2 currently in the system is so diffused (roughly 400 parts per million) that I don't know of any human technology that could possibly make a dent in the CO2 concentrations on a global atmospheric scale.

      You don't use human technology. You use plant technology. We have the technology to replace 100% of our transportation fuels, for example, with carbon-negative (there is waste and you compost it) fuels like butanol and green diesel. We have the technology to replace 100% of our use of wood for construction with bamboo, which grows rapidly and therefore fixes carbon rapidly. If the whole planet were land and you could plant the whole thing in bamboo then you would only need one crop to fix all the excess environmental carbon. Obviously, you cannot do that. But if we stopped our carbon increase, and actually did something about it, then it's possible that we could solve the problem.

      Too bad we don't. I'm glad I don't have kids.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  11. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Studies like this are part of planning ahead, you retard.

  12. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by Barsteward · · Score: 1

    the water being pushed away from the dykes has to go somewhere so you just move the problem down the coast or you could build a pipeline to the grand canyon, plug the ends and fill it up, could probably make a good hydro power station there.

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  13. LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Crashmarik · · Score: 1, Informative

    At least not just yet.

    Here's Michael Mann's (The Hockey Stick guy) prediction that the West Side Highway would be under water by now

    http://www.salon.com/2001/10/2...

    1. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by vtcodger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      "Here's Michael Mann's (The Hockey Stick guy) prediction that the West Side Highway would be under water by now"

      The (demented) Hockey Stick is indeed Mann's. The Westside Highway prediction was James Hansen in 1988 and he still has a decade to go before it is shown to be false. I'm guessing that Hansen is probably beginning to think he may have gotten that one more than a bit wrong.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    2. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Westside Highway prediction was James Hansen in 1988 and he still has a decade to go before it is shown to be false.

      I find the way the article is written makes it hard to tell when he made the "20 years" prediction. He either made it in 1988, or in 2001 at the time of the article. I'm guessing GP read that as 1988 +20, which has already passed. The latest possible interpretation is 2001 (the time of the article) +20, so we have at most less than a half decade before it is shown to be false.

      I'm guessing that Hansen is probably beginning to think he may have gotten that one more than a bit wrong.

      Agreed.

    3. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by ljw1004 · · Score: 2

      At least not just yet.

      Here's Michael Mann's (The Hockey Stick guy) prediction that the West Side Highway would be under water by now

      http://www.salon.com/2001/10/2...

      What?? I think you're confused. That article refers to a prediction Jim Hansen made in 1988 or 1989, shortly after he testified to Congress about climate change. Nothing to do with Michael Mann.

    4. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by vtcodger · · Score: 2

      Hansen made the prediction during a radio interview in 1988. There was some ambiguity whether it was a 20 year or 40 year prediction. When asked about that, Hansen said 40 years. Heck, let's give him that. (I reckon he needs about 2-3 meters sea level rise in the next decade for it to come about. But I don't live in NYC and don't know for sure how much freeboard the lowest stretch of 12th Avenue/Westside Highway has.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    5. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by dave420 · · Score: 1

      You're the guy who doesn't know the difference between sea ice and land ice, so please don't be offended when people take your claims with a grain of salt.

    6. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Dave who could possibly be offended by you ?

    7. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Yes I posted a correction just after I hit submit.. It's a personal quirk I have swtiching their names. Slashdot unfortunately still has no way to edit posts.

    8. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Citation? First sources?

      A Salon article is more believable than a random poster on slashdot.

    9. Re:LOL Well don't fit your balcony out with a Dock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "hockey stick" mythology is much loved by those climate change deniers.

      Let's look at the image, the literal representation of the hockey stick for a change, shall we? Is a hockey stick shape on a growth graph impossible? No. Is the hockey stick shape improbable? Nope.

      What then is the hockey stick shape? What does it mean? And here is what it means.

      The so-called hockey stick shape is a misnomer; it is either ignorance or misrepresentation of any high growth system. In fact the hockey stick shape is just the leading (front side) edge of a bell curve. Bell curves are so common in statistics that they merit study all on their own. Business and economic theory talk about bell curves endlessly. Any high growth business goes through a massive growth phase that typically lasts for several years before tapering off.

      This is why attempting to dismiss climate change data on the basis of the 'hockey stick shape' is laughably wrong. Your 'big discovery that invalidates all climate change data and predictions' is demonstrable proof of ignorance about growth curves.

      Maybe consider getting an education. And no, 10 minutes (or even 10 days) with Google does not substitute. Particularly when you are a victim of confirmation bias and actively screen out contrary data. Who admits and welcomes contrary data? There are these mysterious people called 'scientists' you see...

  14. Bannon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bannon, is that you?

  15. Global warming or climate change does not exist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's just another ruse used by the ruling elite to impose restrictions on the masses. Whether that's through denying use of how we each use energy, or prolonging the usage of outmoded technology still making a massive ROI, doesn't matter. It's just another label with which to beat down the great unwashed peasants taking over the planet.

  16. Anything we can do to speed it up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'd live to see Mar-A-Lago flood during the next 3.5 years.

    1. Re:Anything we can do to speed it up? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      It might be amusing, but it's probably got more of other people's money than Trump's tied up in it.

      In any case, he'd build a wall round it and make the mermaids pay for it.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    2. Re:Anything we can do to speed it up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's okay. I have no sympathy for anyone stupid enough to have given Twitler money.

  17. When will Mar-a-lago be flooded ? by AncalagonTotof · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Could be fun to see a climate change denier be flooded at home !

    --
    Totof
  18. Besides the problem of coastal cities flooding by mark_reh · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    it means more of our crap, literal and figurative, is going to end up in the ocean. When I get depressed thinking about this I just want to turn on the "fake news" and hear about the latest Trump scandal, then the future of the oceans/earth doesn't seem so awful.

    What do I care if the earth sucks in 15-20 years? By then I will surely have died in a labor camp or chained to a wall in one of Trump's dungeons. We deserve the future that is surely coming because as a species we are too stupid to work toward ensuring our own survival.

    1. Re:Besides the problem of coastal cities flooding by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What do I care if the earth sucks in 15-20 years? By then I will surely have died in a labor camp or chained to a wall in one of Trump's dungeons.

      Do you honestly believe that?

    2. Re:Besides the problem of coastal cities flooding by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What do I care if the earth sucks in 15-20 years? By then I will surely have died in a labor camp or chained to a wall in one of Trump's dungeons.

      You have strange fantasies.

  19. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by aussie_a · · Score: 1

    Lesbians aren't going to get you out of this one. You've watched too many pornos.

  20. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by Salgak1 · · Score: 1

    So fucking grow up, put your big pants on and build a fucking dyke.

    Hang on, I thought this was about Climate Change, not Sexbots ??

  21. Funny, I don't see it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I go to Galveston Island about once a week. There is a whole lot more variation in tide and beach erosion than there is with rising sea levels.

  22. Where's this apparent "consensus"? by moeinvt · · Score: 0, Troll

    The linked article reads: "10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050."

    Huh? I don't try to keep up with all of these doomsday predictions, but I thought it was supposed to be several feet and that huge tracts of land in coastal areas would be underwater by 2050? so I googled

    sea level rise by 2050

    The first result was a PBS story from 2012. This article quotes a report in the journal Environment Research Letters stating: "Sea levels could rise as much as 19 inches by 2050, according to what the report calls 'mid-range projections.' " Next result was an article from The Guardian in 2015 which states "sea levels may still rise at least 6 meters (20 ft) above their current heights, radically reshaping the world's coastline". They also reference some pseudo-scientists in some scientific publication

    I thought there was some "consensus" on this stuff? Have the "climate scientists" reached the consensus that sea levels will rise by anywhere from 10cm to 600cm by 2050, with 48cm being in the "mid range"?

    Predicting the future is NOT science.

    1. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by Ryanrule · · Score: 1

      Yeah, you need to go fuck yourself if this isn't satire.

    2. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      PBS is staffed by climate scientists? I also read in the 1980s that trickle-down economics would make us all rich. Guess this means economics isn't science either.

    3. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by Xyrus · · Score: 2

      The big unknown and one that is still a hot topic of research is how strong the feedbacks become in a warming world.

      The "low end" of the range assumes no significant feedback cycle takes hold. It's the "simple" projection and not all the different than the ones Arrhenius did back in the 1890's. However, the paleoclimate research has indicated that historically there appear to be tipping points during climate transitions that cause much more rapid changes to take place once they're crossed.

      There are number of potential events that could trigger a tipping point and bring about more rapid changes. But trying to determine when they'll happen, if they trigger additional feedbacks, etc. is not exactly easy. That's why projections of long term climate are given in ranges with details on what went into the projection. Someone stating a number without referencing the projection that generated it (and thus, the conditions) is pretty useless.

      --
      ~X~
    4. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by moeinvt · · Score: 1

      Jeesh, I guess you take your global warming *cough* "climate change" pretty seriously don't you? WTF did I do to arouse your righteous indignation?
      I quoted three stories which gave vastly divergent estimates for sea level rise by 2050. The exhaustively used "climate change" talking points are: "The science is settled" & "95%(or whatever) of scientists agree ...". I don't call estimates that are off by 2X, 3X or more than an order of magnitude "consensus". It just goes to show that the people making these predictions are not doing "science". They are taking scientific DATA, gathered over many decades, creating mathematical models and then trying to extrapolate into the future, based on a model of the past. That's not "science".

    5. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      The linked article reads: "10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050."

      No, it doesn't, it reads:

      A 10-to-20 centimetre (four-to-eight inch) jump in the global ocean watermark by 2050—a conservative forecast—would double flood risk in high-latitude regions, they reported in the journal Scientific Reports.

      Basically they're saying that if we get far less ocean level rise than we expect, the rate of major flooding incidents will still double. If we get something closer to what we expect to get, once-a-century flooding incidents may become once-a-year flooding incidents.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    6. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      The Guardian article you linked to says "6 meters" but it doesn't say when. It will probably take several centuries. 2050 is only mentioned as when there will be "an emerging flooding crisis", which, like today, would be mostly from storms. That's compatible with the 10 cm to 20 cm discussed here.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    7. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      I thought there was some "consensus" on this stuff? Have the "climate scientists" reached the consensus that sea levels will rise by anywhere from 10cm to 600cm by 2050, with 48cm being in the "mid range"?

      I think the consensus is whatever keeps the government funding flowing. No crisis = no money, so of course there's a crisis! Multiple ones, all the time!

      Predicting the future is NOT science.

      It would be if they could, but they can't, so it isn't.

    8. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by Ryanrule · · Score: 1

      a computer chip works by science predicting the future billions of times a second.

    9. Re:Where's this apparent "consensus"? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Scientific consensus tends to be on things they're extremely confident about. Climate predictions are exceedingly complicated to begin with, and they depend heavily on what we as a species do. The result is that predictions are generally in the form of a range, and often have conditions attached. I'd check the IPCC reports, myself, and I've got other things to do right now than look through them.

      News media tend to report the extremes, because they draw eyeballs. If there's fifty papers saying 10-20cm, and one saying half a meter, the half a meter prediction is very likely to be reported. Six meters is a tremendous rise, and would be catastrophic, so that attracts a lot of eyeballs. The media is not a reliable source for science.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  23. Wait, didn't Gore already say that? by PontifexMaximus · · Score: 0, Informative

    Wasn't the coast to be swallowed by 2015? I mean seriously, get a grip, and stop listening to these clowns. No one knows shit about climate yet. We don't have the long term data to extrapolate that far out. We are just now getting marginally accurate with WEEKLY weather, how do you expect the climate to be accurately deduced?
    I'm not saying man hasn't made an impact on climate, I /am/ saying all these doomsday scenarios are just a ploy for money. No one truly knows, none of the climatology models bandied about in the early 2000s panned out for the mid-2010s, so why think we know what will happen by 2050?
    The scientific method is really more a nuisance to 'scientists' these days than the rule of law. Idiots.

    --
    Pax Vobiscum
  24. We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AGE. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    3 Global warming articles in the front page, really Slashdot?

    For the longest time earth was flooded with CO2 18 times higher than we have today, and it was colder.

    We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AGE.

    Stop spreading the CO2 global warming nonsense already.

    I don't know why you idiots just don't do your own research but keep repeating nonsense just because someone else said so.

    CO2/Temp Graph

    There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today.

    There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today.

    The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today-- 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.

    Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time

    Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

    The Global Warming Scam

    Now then, looking at Carbon Dioxide, we find that only .117% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is directly attributable to human technology such as automobiles. .117% is a rather small amount. If we were to measure out .117% of a football field, it comes out to 4.212 inches, barely long enough to get off the touchdown line.

    CO2 Is Not Causing Global Warming

    The Possessive Belief

    CO2 (carbon dioxide) is not causing global warming or climate change. I canâ(TM)t say it more boldly, but it doesnâ(TM)t seem to matter; the belief persists that CO2 is the cause and therefore a problem. The belief is enhanced by government policies and plans, which spawn businesses to exploit the opportunities they create. A majority of the mainstream media pushes the belief because of political bias rather than understanding of the science. Evidence continues to show what is wrong with the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but it is complex and so most donâ(TM)t understand. The fact they hold definitive positions without understanding is disturbing. However, ignoring the fact that IPCC predictions are always wrong doesnâ(TM)t require the understanding that the science is completely unacceptable and proof of the political bias.
    Contradictory Evidence

  25. Re: We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'd give your paper a D. It is poorly researched.

  26. "To make up for the lack of observational data," by rickb928 · · Score: 1

    "we theorize, speculate, and focus on the worst-case scenario"

    Yea, and I can get back to something more certain and true, like CNN or Facebook.

    --
    deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
  27. All I know is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    these guys often make predictions. I remember the one academia gave about the world turning into a much colder place about 1970. Did not happen and they never remind people of their failed predictions.

    Where is the degree of accuracy? And quit saying ,"This is science." Two hydrogens plus one oxygen = water. That is science. If this were truly science, revisions would not be a necessary part of it. I realize one can be off on the amount of ocean level rise or the time in which it happens. But why is it always both?

    Why not just use the real formula and say:

    Ocean level rise propaganda + enough people believe + taxes = big profit

  28. no "would" about it by ooloorie · · Score: 1

    A 10-to-20 centimetre (four-to-eight inch) jump in the global ocean watermark by 2050—a conservative forecast—would double flood risk in high-latitude regions, they reported in the journal Scientific Reports.

    Using "would" suggests incorrectly that there is any choice about it. Sea level rise of that magnitude is inevitable, no matter what policies we adopt, so we better learn to deal with it.

    Coastal flooding, on the other hand, is something that's humans have dealt with for all of our existence and where we have good and effective countermeasures.

    (Progressives in particular should love this, because dike building is government spending and should provide a wonderful Keynesian stimulus to third world nations!)

  29. He was asked a hypothetical scenario. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you were to leap from the Empire State Building this morning, how long would it take you to hit the pavement?

    Since you didn't leap from the Empire state building, and the prediction of the length of time you had left to live was "proven wrong" since it passed a long time ago, this proves Gravity was wrong and that the predictions of "gravity scientists" are all fake?!?!?

    Has CO2 doubled?
    No.

    Was the date hypothesised 2008?
    No, it was 2028.

    So where has the "prediction" failed?

    He never predicted CO2 would double by 2008 as you claim. He never predicted it would double by 2018 as it would have been if it WERE a prediction rather than a reply to a hypothetical scenario being asked.

    So given that you denier idiots have lied several times about this, this proves your denial and every other denier claim has failed.

    By the logic you used, hence YOU can't refuse it.

    Oh, and odd that it's a report of what someone says by the "reporter" which is refuted by both the author of the quote AND the content of the book the salon report was about. Gosh! Bob didn't say it, they said something else and a reporter LIED?!?!?! Unpossible!!!!

    From Bob himself:
    "When I interviewed James Hansen I asked him to speculate on what the view outside his office window could look like in 40 years with doubled CO2. I'd been trying to think of a way to discuss the greenhouse effect in a way that would make sense to average readers. I wasn't asking for hard scientific studies. It wasn't an academic interview. It was a discussion with a kind and thoughtful man who answered the question. You can find the description in two of my books, most recently The Coming Storm."

    Not 20, 40, and if a hypopthetical situation where CO2 doubles, not a prediction of what will happen. Unless you want to claim Bob is a liar, in which case you have no case against Hansen at all, since Bob is, as far as you claim, lying.

    But strange that the only place where "Bob" is said to have said all this in direct quote is the salon article and denier blogs pointing to it. Yet the book itself doesn't say that (go get it from Amazon yourself and read it) and Bob himself says this conversation is different.

    Moreover, since the highway was out of commission and nonexistent between 1973 and 1998, how could he have pointed to it in 1988? Bob's recollection of his interview with James is entirely different from Suzi's report of her interview 13 years later with Bob and is counterfactual with external reality.

    Again, more lies from more deniers proving all deniers are liars.

    Not forgetting it did flood late 2012. Without it being doubled in CO2.

  30. Cut-and-paste reposting of misunderstood facts by XXongo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Since you are cut-and-paste reposting what you already posted, I will cut-and-post what I already replied:

    The difficulty here is that you are mixing up stuff that's correct, and stuff that isn't.

    For the longest time earth was flooded with CO2 18 times higher than we have today,

    That part is true. The Earth has had more carbon dioxide in the past,

    and it was colder.

    This part is not true. In general, when there's more carbon dioxide it's warmer, and when there's less it's colder.

    We had more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AGE.

    First, to be pedantic, let me remind you that we are in an ice age right now: there are permanent ice caps on the planet that don't disappear in the summers. The detailed place we are in the cycle is that we are in an "interglacial" period, but overall, yes, we're still in an ice age.

    It's quite well accepted that the glaciation cycle is driven by Milankovitch variations, the pattern of solar insolation (short for "incident solar radiation," by the way) across the northern and southern hemisphere. Carbon dioxide and water vapor, however-- the greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere-- are the amplifiers that turn the relatively small insolation changes into global temperature changes.

    As the cycle of increase of glacial and interglacial periods go, the record is very clear: glacier advance correlate with reduced carbon dioxide, and glacier retreat trends with increased carbon dioxide. So, no, your statement is backwards-- if by "in the fucking ice age" you mean "during the ice covered periods of the current cycle", then, no, we had less CO2 in the atmosphere in the fucking ice age.

    The graph you link, with a minimum increment on the time axis of 100 million years, doesn't show the ice age cycle (with time periods three orders of magnitude shorter than that). Here's a graph of temperature and carbon dioxide over the last four glaciation cycles:
    http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/VostokIceCore.html">http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/VostokIceCore.html

    The rest of your post seems to have equivalent random mixing up of facts. You write:

    I don't know why you idiots just don't do your own research but keep repeating nonsense just because someone else said so.

    But that seems to be exactly what you are doing-- posting a scrapbook of random unrelated stuff without, as far as I can tell, making any attempt to understand it. Here are some links:

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-thawed-the-last-ice-age/
    http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/07_2.shtml

    1. Re: Cut-and-paste reposting of misunderstood facts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Few people seem to question causation. Does higher CO2 cause warming or does warming cause higher CO2?

    2. Re: Cut-and-paste reposting of misunderstood facts by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Causation isn't what it used to be. Ask any quantum physicist.

      Higher CO2 causes warming. I'm not entirely sure about warming increasing CO2, but there might be an effect. Apparently in past warmings, CO2 has lagged. However, based on isotopic analysis, we know where the extra carbon is coming from. In addition, we can roughly calculate the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, and it's enough to cover the increase.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  31. Re:We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AGE by vtcodger · · Score: 1

    A caution. Once you get back beyond the reach of polar ice cores (about 800,000 years), CO2 estimates are based on somewhat dubious proxies. The one case I'm aware of where there are two proxies for the same sediment bed (leaf stomata size and soil calcification) the estimated values differed by a factor of two. Doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling about the accuracy of past CO2 estimates. But then, I don't have much faith in proxy measurements of anything.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  32. Re: We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Based on?

  33. Tip by Neuronwelder · · Score: 1

    Get stocks in boats!!

  34. So 2050 now, huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And in 2050, they'll be saying 'by 2075', and in 2075, they'll be saying 'by 2100', et cetera, et cetera.

  35. Looks like natural variability by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The oceans have been rising by ~3 mm/yr since the mid 1800s. I would expect 30-40 years from now to see a 90mm-120mm (9cm - 12cm) rise due to this. We are still coming out of the last ice age and thus oceans are gradually rising. No big surprise there.

    This article just re-emphasizes the fact that this is natural variability and not man made. It's not like the ocean is going to just rise 10cm instantaneously (step change). It will be gradual over time and I am extremely sure we humans can adapt to this change.

  36. Not really referenceable by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 3, Insightful

    There are plenty of actual predictions that are actually published in actual referenceable sources.

    I really don't see the point in citing an offhand comment made in a radio interview as a "prediction", when the person quoted has an actual bibliography of hundreds of real publications that can be referenced.
    (not to mention the point of misattributing a quote that's citing a guy informally recalling something another guy said in a conversation a decade earlier, and misremembering key details.)

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  37. Not worthy of /. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If I want to read junk like this, I'll go to other sites.

  38. Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The low end data is 3 mm per year. Then the summary talks about 25 cm by 2050. At the low end, in 33 years one expects 10 cm.

  39. Because it's happening NOW by foxalopex · · Score: 1

    I still find it disappointing that there would be climate deniers. Yeah sure the sea is going to rise a 1/2 foot, no big deal... Well first of all, what's causing the 1/2 foot rise in oceans if there isn't climate change. It's like saying, oh well I feel healthy and I can't possibility have cancer even thou my doctor is telling me all his blood tests are coming back positive, it's a conspiracy by the doctors to make more money!

    Humans are also inherently less than pro-active on many many issues wanting to believe things are better than they are until they're not. As a result we end up building on floodplains or too close to oceans or water because well it can't happen. The problem with climate change is it's not a "sudden" change but it increases the risk of getting hurt. It's like not wearing a seatbelt because you usually don't crash. The bottom line is even if you don't believe in climate change, there are millions of people at risk for when water levels rise. It will hurt us all in increased taxes, insurance or economic failure when it comes. Isn't that enough to do something? Or should we just sit around, too cheap to invest in a seatbelt because only other people crash?

  40. BS predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And by the year 2000 I would have a flying F'ing car too!

  41. For how long are You guys going to publish Fiction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    According to Al Gore, and all the other Global Warming Loonies.. in 2004 We should have been underwater, the polar bears should be extinct (in fact their population since measuring has never been higher)! We were supposed to be out of food, out of resources and the planet should be a garbage can - if One listens to the idiot's that You keep publishing.

    France’s foreign minister said we only have “500 days” to stop “climate chaos” 2014

    In 2012, the United Nations Foundation President Tim Wirth told Climatewire that Obama’s second term was “the last window of opportunity” to impose policies to restrict fossil fuel use. Wirth said it’s “the last chance we have to get anything approaching 2 degrees Centigrade,” adding that if “we don’t do it now, we are committing the world to a drastically different place.”

    Even before that, then-National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center head James Hansen warned in 2009 that Obama only “has four years to save Earth.” I wonder what they now think about their predictions?

    Remember when we had “hours” to stop global warming?

    In 2009, world leaders met in Copenhagen, Denmark to potentially hash out another climate treaty. That same year, the head of Canada’s Green Party wrote that there was only “hours” left to stop global warming.

    “We have hours to act to avert a slow-motion tsunami that could destroy civilization as we know it,” Elizabeth May, leader of the Greens in Canada, wrote in 2009. “Earth has a long time. Humanity does not. We need to act urgently. We no longer have decades; we have hours. We mark that in Earth Hour on Saturday.”

    United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown said there was only 50 days left to save Earth

    2009 was a bad year for global warming predictions. That year Brown warned there was only “50 days to save the world from global warming,” the BBC reported. According to Brown there was “no plan B.”

    Let’s not forget Prince Charles’s warning we only had 96 months to save the planet

    It’s only been about 70 months since Charles said in July 2009 that there would be “irretrievable climate and ecosystem collapse, and all that goes with it.” So the world apparently only has 26 months left to stave off an utter catastrophe.

    The U.N.’s top climate scientist said in 2007 we only had four years to save the world

    Rajendra Pachauri, the former head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in 2007 that if “there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late.”

    “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment,” he said.

    Well, it’s 2015 and no new U.N. climate treaty has been presented. The only thing that’s changed since then is that Pachauri was forced to resign earlier this year amid accusations he sexually harassed multiple female coworkers.

    Environmentalists warned in 2002 the world had a decade to go green

    Environmentalist write George Monbiot wrote in the UK Guardian that within “as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.”

    In 2002, about 930 million people around the world were undernourished, according to U.N. data. by 2014, that number shrank to 805 million. Sorry, Monbiot.

    The “tipping point” warning first started in 1989

    In the late 1980s the U.N. was already claiming the world had only a decade to solve global warming or face the consequences.

    The San Jose Mercury News reported on June 30, 1989 that a “senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by ri

  42. great attitude ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you may as well do as you suggest anyway, your depression is entirely justified ... because we're already royally fucked, and we don't show any signs of being able to interrupt or even slow down the melting of the glaciers that Eric talks about ...

    http://www.victoria.ac.nz/antarctic/about/events/s-t-lee-lecture/s.t.-lee-lecture-2016

    Professor Eric J.M. Rignot, 14 February 2017

    Donald Bren Professor of Earth System Science, School of Physical Sciences, University of California, Irvine
    Senior Research Scientist/Joint Faculty Appointee at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    It's very interesting to have the "anatomy" of the glaciers discussed so that we know how the calculations have been made.
    His lecture describes the analyses that his team made on each significant sea-facing glacier in the world, and the conservative estimates are alarming. Unless there's a volcanic eruption which causes global temperatures to drop rapidly, we already have an inevitable 1 meter overall sea rise ahead of us, and there's a handful of glaciers that can each deliver 4 meters or more, it's just a matter of time, we're too late to stop it ... enjoy !
    That's 1 meter AVERAGE, so you can imagine how that pans out for equatorial sites like New Orleans - they haven't seen nothing yet.

    The evidence is clear for all to see - the Totten glacier : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/16/the-melting-of-antarctica-was-already-really-bad-it-just-got-worse/?utm_term=.2889616837dc
    - Pine Island Glacier : https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/collapse-antarcticas-glaciers-ice-melt-sooner-than-thought-scientists-warn

    You're right - what do we care?
    It's too fucking late already to stop it, but we could make life a "little" more pleasant for our children, presuming they will live normal lives of about another 60 years ...
    If we still don't care, that speaks volumes about us collectively, eh?

  43. so you see everything as tribal? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then why should your claims be seen as anything other than tired old identity politics where your stance that AGW is a scam is purely based on you being told by "your clan" that it is so, irrespective of evidence and ignorant of it?

    1. Re:so you see everything as tribal? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Then why should your claims be seen as anything other than tired old identity politics where your stance that AGW is a scam is purely based on you being told by "your clan" that it is so, irrespective of evidence and ignorant of it?

      No I see his claims without evidence and trying to frame the argument as "We, you", not only as Tribal but as an appeal to the majority as well.

  44. Hallucinations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    From TFS:

    To make up for the lack of observational data

    Tells you everything you need to know about whether the headline is real or not.

  45. Again? by mpercy · · Score: 2

    Haven't we heard something like this before?

    Every time I see alarmist stuff like this, all I can think of is this:

    Hypothesis and Disproof

    “2006: Expect Another Big Hurricane Year Says NOAA”—headline, MongaBay .com, May 22, 2006
    “NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season”—headline, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration press release, May 23, 2007
    “NOAA Increases Expectancy for Above-Normal 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season”—headline, gCaptain .com, Aug. 7, 2008
    “Forecasters: 2009 to Bring ‘Above Average’ Hurricane Season”—headline, CNN, Dec. 10, 2008
    “NOAA: 2010 Hurricane Season May Set Records”—headline, Herald-Tribune (Sarasota, Fla.), May 28, 2010
    “NOAA Predicts Increased Storm Activity in 2011 Hurricane Season”—headline, BDO Consulting press release, Aug. 18, 2011
    “2012 Hurricane Forecast Update: More Storms Expected”—headline, LiveScience, Aug. 9, 2012
    “NOAA Predicts Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season”—headline, NOAApress release, May 23, 2013
    “A Space-Based View of 2015’s ‘Hyperactive’ Hurricane Season”—headline, CityLab .com, June 19, 2015
    “The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Might Be the Strongest in Years”—headline, CBSNews, Aug. 11, 2016
    “NOAA: U.S. Completes Record 11 Straight Years Without Major Hurricane Strike”—headline, CNSNews, Oct. 24, 2016
    NOTE: the NOAA is The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the Department of Commerce focused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere.

    For more “Best of the Web” from The Wall Street Journal’s James Taranto

    I'm sure that *EVENTUALLY* they'll get one right...2016 was the "strongest in years" but was still pretty much meh, except for Matthew's impact on Haiti.

    Actual activity in 2016: 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 CAT3+

    Average (1981–2010[1]) 12.1, 6.4, 2.7
    Record high activity 28, 15, 7

    1. Re:Again? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Of course, you're talking about weather predictions, which are very different from climate predictions. A climate prediction would be something like "the 2020s will see significantly more hurricane activity than the 2010s", and that's cutting the time slices rather fine.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  46. Money where your mouth is by radarskiy · · Score: 1

    If you really think rising sea levels is a fraud, you'd be buying up beach-front property at cents on the dollar from the chumps who believe it.

  47. INCHES of increase by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    OMG THE SKY IS FALLING...

    A 10-to-20 centimeter (four-to-eight inch) jump in the global ocean watermark by 2050

    Yeah, you are gonna drown.

  48. Like the fusion energy people by mpercy · · Score: 1

    They've been saying fusion power plants are only 20 years away for about 50 years it seems.

  49. a few cm in 200 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    LOL, look at the latest scientific reports. Sea levels are not rising, and have risen only centimeters over the past 100 years.

  50. Re:Holland has faced this an won... years ago. by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    The Earth changes, true, but not normally this fast. This amount of warming over ten thousand years would be no trouble at all. Over a few decades, it causes problems.

    Moreover, studying what's going on is essential to planning ahead.

    The Dutch dyke system has been good for claiming land that started under sea level, but there's lots of problems with pushing it too far. It doesn't work for seaports, for example, since you don't want to wall the ocean off. The Netherlands is small with a high population density, and the US seaboard isn't.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  51. Re:Does anybody believe this sensationalist rot? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    How we stop the gravy train is listening to the scientists, and not the ones who make up scandals, deceive people, and perform other sleazy activities.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  52. Re:We had 12 times more CO2 in THE FUCKING ICE AGE by Immerman · · Score: 1

    Wow, you're digging *way* back there aren't you? The planet was radically different back then, to the point that you can extrapolate very little to the current situation. I mean we're talking completely dead continents, primitive plants and arachnids only just began leaving the oceans to colonize the shorelines by the very end of the period. And the continents were all south of the equator, strangling the oceanic thermal cycles that would normally have carried heat to the south pole, so glaciation on that side of the planet would be expected unless the seas were practically boiling. And that's just to start.

    Not to mention the celestial differences: the sun was dimmer, and we were in a different part of the galaxy (there's a growing body of evidence suggesting our position within the galactic arms may affect climate and other aspects of our planet)

    --
    --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
  53. Go read Bob;s book. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its there as the quote says. You PREFER the one where you can claim AGW is wrong, though. Go read his book. 40 years and doubling CO2 and no "west highway".

  54. Citation for 2004 prediction plz. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because it's a load of bullshit. The rest ofthe post gets worse, but prove your first one.

  55. You're on AC by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

    Prove the first one? Ok, not hard to find. There's a search engine for that called Google. He's referring to the now thoroughly discredited inconvenient truth film. That really was a load of bullshit.

    Read here -
    http://humanevents.com/2011/08...

    Just admit you've believed the lies from the left. No shame in it because they've spent billions to make people believe it. There is shame if you don't realize you're wrong and still believe it. Read where Eric Holder let him off the hook like Democrats always do for each other. Even if they get put in jail, they let them out in droves when they get control of the White House. Even convicted terrorists that killed people.