Yes, but when the next boom comes, they won't be hiring us Americans. Oursourcing and downsizing have already become a mantra for CIOs and CEOs. Of course, India should do very well, at least until Vietnam and Cambodia get up to speed and steal their lunch in exactly the same way they're stealing ours...
Sorry to point out the obvious, but the train has already left the station, and we're stuck on the platform. Hey, buddy -- spare a dime?
Now, that's a pretty interesting idea. Fujitsu is a pretty cool company. I'm a little nervous about it myself, for the reason that I hate to see all U.S. businesses getting sold to foreign concerns -- I would think that would be a strategic error on our part. However, it's still interesting. They make pretty sexy laptops, if I remember; someone in my office got a recent model of their lifebook, and it was really, really neat.
Yeah, but I don't mind that so much; IBM hardware is probably pretty good. I like their laptops (although I keep seeing them referred to as "stinkpads" for some reason). I wonder which way they're going to go? I hope they're the ones to buy Sun if it gets sold... If anyone else does it, the company will be wrecked. At least with IBM it has a chance.
If worse comes to worst, and Microsoft buys and buries Sun, killing off Java, well... At least we can fall back on C++. That's a completely open spec, with free, open-source compilers and IDEs available. It'll end up being okay, I think.
"Java would cease being as open as it is. The JCP would close down."
I don't know about that; you have to weigh IBM's innate corporate-ness and desire to control all with their equally powerful desire to see Microsoft suffer. It's possible that IBM would completely open up Java to the free software community just to piss Bill Gates off. Another possibility is, they might do this because they want to keep using Java internally, and it might be more convenient for them to be the influential rich uncle instead of the actual mother/father. Yet another possibility is, they might see Java as a platform they can open up the way they did PC hardware, a platform on which they can sell all their server software. If the platform takes off even more than it already is, they can sell more software.
IBM won't necessarily live up to the worst stereotypes of corporations. It's entirely possible that they'll work hard to preserve goodwill in the developer's community (at least, towards IBM, Java, and other non-microsoft vendors). What do you think?
I agree completely. I only just recently got J2SDK 1.4 on my linux boxen at home, installed all the documentation and such, and got ready to start having some fun, and they're coming out with the next version already. It's overwhelming. Every five minutes, there's a new version, with an associated runtime and plugin you've got to be aware of.
I'm going nuts anyway, because at work I have to maintain all this old VB6 code, and we're switching to.Net so I have to become solid in VB.Net as well, and I have to maintain ASP and ASP.Net, and at home I'm using Linux, Java and C++. My head's going to explode; I can't take any more. I wish I could just become a sysadmin, escape all these damn languages and spend all day yelling at programmers for breaking stuff.
I like Mr. Stroustrup quite a bit; isn't it cool how he can never be baited into saying anything seriously negative about anyone? He's totally honorable, throughout his FAQ. The most he said (and really, who could find fault with it?) was that he wasn't a fan of proprietary languages, and he felt that as far as Java and C# go, they're both proprietary and tie you into one platform. He seems like a very reasonable, very nice man.
He made some pretty good points, too. Maybe I'll dust off my copy of Swan's C++ tonight, review a little... Hmm...
That sounds kind of interesting... I remember I had LinuxPPC running on an iBook a while back, and it ran pretty well. Not all of the hardware was recognized, but this was a long time ago -- Linux has probably caught up by now.
Oh, my. And, I thought I was the token paranoid on slashdot. Well, the more the merrier!;)
As far as your statements go, I hope things aren't as extreme as you think they are. However, I do thnk that what you're describing is exactly what "they" would like to see put into place. Whether they'll succeed is another story, but stranger things have happened. I seem to remember that in the 1930s, another country started to tighten down restrictions on its people, and the process started gradually in the name of state security. Then, one day, wham! No one was allowed to leave the country any more, and the government shifted to a totalitarian framework in which the people were no longer free. I seem to remember from history class that they never even saw it coming...
Not that I'm making any comparisons. Lord knows that could NEVER happen HERE.:)
I don't know if they'd make owning a non-TCPA computer illegal, but they would probably make producing, importing, or selling one illegal. So those of us with old hardware could still use it, until its obsolescence made it completely useless and it no longer is able to connect to any network. Then, unless we figure something else out, we would be stuck with Microsoft's weak software, and since there would be no competition, they would have no incentive whatsoever to do any QA. This puts us back in the situation we had with Windows 9x!!!
Bruce Sterling had an interesting idea in one of his novels: small, cheaply made laptops produced by underground groups, which interact over wi-fi within their own network inaccessible from the 'normal' internet. Totally underground. I liked it.
Yeah, but won't the irony be delicious? Besides, I think Chinese guys will think it's absolutely hilarious. I figure they'll be enjoying the situation so much they'll give us a discount and we'll be able to get computers that are not just efficient and devoid of spyware, but cheap, too. It's a win-win situation all around. Besides... I would LOVE an excuse to go shopping in Hong Kong again. What a wonderful city...
OR, I could stick to Linux, which I relatively trust and whose developers I think are a little more lofty-minded than their Microsoft counterparts. But, really -- don't you think they're going to finegle with the system to make life hard for non-joiners and GDIs ("God Damned Independents") who don't want to play ball? I mean, you know, this is MICROSOFT. And, INTEL. You know what I mean.
Two words: import regulations. These are infinitely malleable, and I'm sure the companies pushing Palladium have thought about this exact issue. It may not be possible to do what you suggest.
I'm a pessimist, though -- it might not be as bad as all that. Maybe.;)
I hope you're right; The Chinese are doing something interesting, building up their own chip design by starting from an earlier Intel-like design they acquired legally. I think they'll probably end up with a pretty good processor by the time they're done. If we're lucky, they'll be interested in the export market! Or at least, there'll be companies who bring systems over here and sell them, maybe mail order...
You'll NEVER know. Actually, since they're planning on implementing a software kernel (like a mini-OS) in a BIOS chip, you won't know what it's doing at all. That secure channel between the motherboard, the video, and the peripherals? It's still there even if you "turn off" DRM. So, how do you know it isn't snooping on you? Or deliberately slowing down your non-DRM processing? Or, even non-deliberately slowing it down -- do you think they're going to waste QA time on those of us who reject their pet project? It's just a big mess.
I'll tell you this much: I don't trust Microsoft and Intel not to completely screw up the system in one way or another. They've both turned out some seriously buggy stuff over the years. Remember the floating point bug? Remember the latest Microsoft vulnerability? Remember the Intel chip-ID brouhaha? I don't trust either company. And, AMD is playing along too, so where are we going to turn?
I'm telling you guys -- stock up on fast systems now, while you can. Get all your computer purchasing out of the way this year, and skip the whole DRM thing entirely. If you're *really* forced to, you can always buy a cheapo, 500.00 box/appliance down the road (just for DRM purposes) and code on your *good* pre-Palladium machines.
An A/C said: "Large relative to what? Is your premise that IE isn't 85+% of the browsers out there? Or are you inferencing from the "small" to the market as a whole?"
That fifteen percent of the market is millions of users, dude. Millions of users is a nice customer base. I'd take a niche like that...
Besides, your example is flawed. All of the browsers you've mentioned (even IE) are FREE. Which is sort of why no one buys browsers any more, isn't it? Which sort of backs up MY point, doesn't it?
Well, that's true, but that's a niche market at most, and it's closely tied to government contracting and defense spending. I don't think it applies well to the broader market, where application companies aren't doing so hot. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it'll go away entirely, but I really don't think a lot of money is going to be made in applications software anymore.
I agree a hundred percent. I've got a public-sector job right now, and the internal postings are great; upward movement is definitely possible, and you're only competing against other civil servants for the positions (longevity and loyalty count). No outsider is allowed to poach the promotional slots, which is cool.
I think the public sector is the only place left where you can get a job worth having. But that's just my opinion.;)
While I agree with every single one of your points, and I wish more people would (if more people understood the situation as you do, we wouldn't be in this mess), I am aware of the following:
1. Our government is bought and paid for by corporations and the very wealthy, all of whom are benefitting from the current situation. And, politicians don't care about what's right or wrong, they care about what will let them preserve their priviledged lives (e.g. that which pleases their corporate masters). Independents almost never get voted in, so we're stuck with the assholes the corporations WANT us to be stuck with. This isn't a democracy.
2. Most people aren't that bright, and buy hook, line and sinker the whole pro-status-quo party line. Explain to them what's being done to them and most of them will argue fiercely with you (or shrug and say, "I don't care"). Most people call me names whenever I speak my mind (I've been called a commie a lot lately, a marxist, a socialist, man it's getting tiresome). So these people aren't going to do a thing to put political pressure on anyone. They can't be bothered.
3. Even if people were willing to be roused up to do something about the collapse of our civilization (which, make no mistake, is what this is all about) we have no way of reaching them because the media are completely controlled by corporate interests and support the party line. If we were able to reach everyone, say through the internet, the news media would just run a story about how full of shit we are and most people would say, "Ha, you nearly got me, you trickster, you".
4. IF anyone were to actually have any success at motivating people to change the status quo, he'd be quietly killed off and it would be made to look like an accident, or worse, something discrediting, like a drug overdose or a freak murder with some kind of organized crime connection. Then, all of his work would be carefully unravelled. Think I'm wrong? Remember "cointelpro"? If you think anyone stopped doing that stuff, you'd better think again. It just went underground. Did you know that most of the members of the Chicago Seven have died already? All from appropriately random "accidents" and "illnesses". Think how statistically unlikely that is. None of them were all that old when they died. Of course, now I'll be branded a "conspiracy theorist" and that's ok. It just reinforces my point.
You don't seem to understand that the situation really IS hopeless. Completely so. My plan is to just give up on the whole thing and do my best to live whatever kind of life I can manage to live in this culture, and observe the race to the bottom with as much dignity as I can manage. God, what a bummer. But, there it is.
There is only one sure-fire way to make a lot of money online. Only one. Start a porn site with an attractive hook, like for example, a webcam about an actual couple which sets up a voyeur-type experience. You'd have to build a solid membership system, of course, which is difficult for people to pirate/crack, and that would be hard. But it's doable. Also you can probably get kick-backs from all the adult-check registration systems (which you'd need, anyway, to protect yourself from liability). You could set up "special events" like a threesome with a barfly, "viagara experimentation", "Roman Orgy Night", etc. Plus, you could sell DVDs of clips, and syndicate your better content to other adult sites.
I'd do this in a second if I could figure out a way to arrange for a female partner (either kinky girlfriend or ambitious non-romantic low-inhibition type). But, I'm a slashdotter -- no girlfriend, no prospects, and I haven't been laid in two years. Oh well... But maybe one of you guys will have better luck.;)
Ah. You're assuming a few things about the Pointy Haired Boss (PHB):
1. That the PHB is going to be able to figure out how to USE the tool he finds.
2. That the site he attempts to download the tool from won't just totally pooch his computer for fun. Or give him a virus. Or a trojan. Or something more "interesting".
3. That a rival of his in the herd of suits at his office isn't checking the web logs to see who's been doing something naughty. "Oh, look! Bob's been downloading crackz! Heh heh... By, by, Bob. Hello, Bob's office." Corollary: that Homeland Security isn't looking at web traffic, too, in hopes of giving the PHB his very first body-cavity search. "Hey, Bob, is that a colon polyp?"
4. That the hacker types who built the tool even remotely like PHB's. I don't think they do, although I don't know any (honest). Seriously, if you were a hacker type, would YOU feel inclined to help a PHB rip off a programmer? It's not like the PHB would be willing to give you so much as a nickel for it...
5. That you can always build in a phone-home feature a-la Microsoft and collect data for a little while -- then sue the PHB for punitive damages for using the tool. And, if you're mean, press charges.
PHBs may WANT to crack your software protection, but that doesn't mean they'll have the ability to do so.
Well... I disagree with you *in a sense*, but not fully. I think open source has had a serious effect, for instance on the Shareware industry (which is, you must admit, just about dead). So let me clarify.
"traditional" applications software has solidified into it's more or less ultimate state. Just what else can you really put in a word processor? Or a spreadsheet? They've been done to death; they're complete. And, it's true that this particular area hasn't been killed by open source YET, but only because so many people get Word (or Works) with their computers, or with their office's MS bundle when they buy from a vendor. There's nothing left to do here, so there's really no reason for anyone to mess with that market. Think about it; let's say you don't want to use MS Office. What are you going to use? Probably either StarOffice, OpenOffice, or KOffice. there are probably others, all open source, and all pretty good. So, you're not going to be able to sell a word processor, ok? In my view, this means that except for Microsoft, the market is dominated by open source products, so it's fair to say that open source has crushed that segment (at least outside Microsoft's turf).
Let us expand this principle outwards.
Let's say you want an MP3 player. Fine! Are you going to buy one? Nah, you're probably going to download a perfectly free one. It'll probably be open source.
Let's say you want a tool that does X. Chances are, someone has an open source project that does X. Check out SourceForge. There's something that does just about everything in there, all of it open source and free for download and modification. So, why should I buy your tool to do X when I can just download a free one, and have the ability to trade it with my friends without any legal repercussions?
You seem to be missing a major point, here. There is software innovation going on. But it's going on in the open source community, and it's getting distributed freely. SO, this eliminates the incentive to try and start a company around a proprietary software product. IF you invest your money in a software company in this day and age, you throw it away, because every good idea has been thought of by SOMEONE, and it's likely to have an open source analogue. You can't compete with free, period. Even Microsoft is having fits trying to secure its continued existence. Seriously.
As long as it is possible for me to go download a free, high-quality tool that I can copy in an unlimited way with no legal encumberment, I'll choose that over a proprietary tool every time. And, believe me, plenty of other people are doing exactly the same thing. You should look into the situation more thoroughly.
For instance, you claim that no one is really using Mozilla, or Netscape, or Opera, but they have large user bases. Plenty of people prefer Mozilla. I'm using it right now. Your comments seem to indicate that you're a little bit out of touch with what's been going on.
Honest. I wouldn't lie to ya (this being slashdot, notwithstanding).
Well, that's certainly true. I'll admit, GETTING the gov job isn't easy. Our last round of interviews had ninety applicants for one position, and that was for a consulting job. However, once you're in, you're relatively safer than you would be in private industry, and you're working a 40 hour week with benefits and overtime (when it comes up) at time and a half.
I don't know if we're "flooded" but there is a lot of competition...
Before I say anything about the industry, let me start out by saying that you never, ever waste your time when you study computer science. Even if you never use it professionally (increasingly likely these days) you'll still find the ability to completely control a computer (as opposed to "using" a computer like most people) very valuable. Just think; by the time you're done with your degree program, you'll be able to understand and work with any computer you're plunked down next to. Not only that; you'll be able to make the thing do your bidding. That's a pearl of great price, don't think of it in career terms.
Having said that, yes, unfortunately the software industry is dead, at least from the perspective of the individual programmer. There are a lot of reasons for this, including:
1. Most corporations and private companies are outsourcing almost *everything*, usually either overseas (India, mostly) or to local companies that use overseas talent. You can't beat them on price, ok? Their cost of living is a fraction of yours, and they'll undercut you until you starve. It doesn't matter that your skills are superior, or that you're a great programmer; some guy in Bangalore can work for 1/5 what you cost, and to a pointy-haired boss, that's all that matters. This is a terrible, terrible thing, and corporations deserve no loyalty or mercy from us -- when their customer base can no longer afford their products thanks to rampant layoffs, they'll die off like the vermin they are. But there's nothing we (or anyone) can do about it, so we might as well accept it.
2. Even if a private company isn't going to go into full-blown outsourcing, they ARE going to rely mostly on contractors. What THIS means is, most of the work will go to inexpensive foreign talent ANYWAY (because now, the contracting companies will do the outsourcing) and those Americans who DO get contracting gigs will have to settle for chump change or lose the bid. IF, that is, you can get them to pay you at all -- there are lots, and I mean lots, of stories about people getting stiffed by companies. Corporate IT is a really dicey business for a programmer or admin these days.
3. Software companies aren't going to provide many jobs. Applications software is deader than hell. It's been slaughtered by the Open Source community, who can produce solid software that not only costs nothing, but which can be copied infinitely, and has no hidden gotchas like the equivalent proprietary software. You simply cannot compete with that; you can't beat them on quality, or on price, or even on style (most open source software these days even LOOKS good). It's a dead industry, ok? Not that this is a bad thing, necessarily, but it does mean you won't be able to count on a salary from this sector.
But it's not all doom and gloom. There are still a couple of places where you can make some money.
First of all, public sector jobs may not pay as much as the private sector USED to, but they sure pay a hell of a lot more NOW. Federal, State, and Local jobs are all unionized, so you're protected, and you get great benefits. So this is a great place to hunker down during the recession. One warning: they can be annoying places to work. But it's worth a little aggravation to have a steady job.
Second of all, if you're good at graphics, game companies are going to keep growing. They're making money hand over fist. But concentrate on console games. People are sick of having to upgrade their PCs every couple of years, and they're switching over to consoles at a breakneck pace.
Third, and this is pretty dicey, you might be able to make some bread writing Java and J2EE libraries and tools that corporations might want to buy. Get the money up front, though. Don't get stiffed. And, buy some kind of dongle or other copy-protection scheme, or corporations WILL pirate your code like mad. Think I'm kidding? Companies like to ask you for a "demo" and then, use that to do whatever project they had in mind. Then you don't get paid. Get the don
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Yes, but when the next boom comes, they won't be hiring us Americans. Oursourcing and downsizing have already become a mantra for CIOs and CEOs. Of course, India should do very well, at least until Vietnam and Cambodia get up to speed and steal their lunch in exactly the same way they're stealing ours...
Sorry to point out the obvious, but the train has already left the station, and we're stuck on the platform. Hey, buddy -- spare a dime?
Now, that's a pretty interesting idea. Fujitsu is a pretty cool company. I'm a little nervous about it myself, for the reason that I hate to see all U.S. businesses getting sold to foreign concerns -- I would think that would be a strategic error on our part. However, it's still interesting. They make pretty sexy laptops, if I remember; someone in my office got a recent model of their lifebook, and it was really, really neat.
Yeah, but I don't mind that so much; IBM hardware is probably pretty good. I like their laptops (although I keep seeing them referred to as "stinkpads" for some reason). I wonder which way they're going to go? I hope they're the ones to buy Sun if it gets sold... If anyone else does it, the company will be wrecked. At least with IBM it has a chance.
If worse comes to worst, and Microsoft buys and buries Sun, killing off Java, well... At least we can fall back on C++. That's a completely open spec, with free, open-source compilers and IDEs available. It'll end up being okay, I think.
(knock on wood).
pmz said:
">> what if ibm buys sun?"
"Java would cease being as open as it is. The JCP would close down."
I don't know about that; you have to weigh IBM's innate corporate-ness and desire to control all with their equally powerful desire to see Microsoft suffer. It's possible that IBM would completely open up Java to the free software community just to piss Bill Gates off. Another possibility is, they might do this because they want to keep using Java internally, and it might be more convenient for them to be the influential rich uncle instead of the actual mother/father. Yet another possibility is, they might see Java as a platform they can open up the way they did PC hardware, a platform on which they can sell all their server software. If the platform takes off even more than it already is, they can sell more software.
IBM won't necessarily live up to the worst stereotypes of corporations. It's entirely possible that they'll work hard to preserve goodwill in the developer's community (at least, towards IBM, Java, and other non-microsoft vendors). What do you think?
I agree completely. I only just recently got J2SDK 1.4 on my linux boxen at home, installed all the documentation and such, and got ready to start having some fun, and they're coming out with the next version already. It's overwhelming. Every five minutes, there's a new version, with an associated runtime and plugin you've got to be aware of.
.Net so I have to become solid in VB.Net as well, and I have to maintain ASP and ASP.Net, and at home I'm using Linux, Java and C++. My head's going to explode; I can't take any more. I wish I could just become a sysadmin, escape all these damn languages and spend all day yelling at programmers for breaking stuff.
I'm going nuts anyway, because at work I have to maintain all this old VB6 code, and we're switching to
I like Mr. Stroustrup quite a bit; isn't it cool how he can never be baited into saying anything seriously negative about anyone? He's totally honorable, throughout his FAQ. The most he said (and really, who could find fault with it?) was that he wasn't a fan of proprietary languages, and he felt that as far as Java and C# go, they're both proprietary and tie you into one platform. He seems like a very reasonable, very nice man.
He made some pretty good points, too. Maybe I'll dust off my copy of Swan's C++ tonight, review a little... Hmm...
That sounds kind of interesting... I remember I had LinuxPPC running on an iBook a while back, and it ran pretty well. Not all of the hardware was recognized, but this was a long time ago -- Linux has probably caught up by now.
Interesting...
Oh, my. And, I thought I was the token paranoid on slashdot. Well, the more the merrier! ;)
:)
As far as your statements go, I hope things aren't as extreme as you think they are. However, I do thnk that what you're describing is exactly what "they" would like to see put into place. Whether they'll succeed is another story, but stranger things have happened. I seem to remember that in the 1930s, another country started to tighten down restrictions on its people, and the process started gradually in the name of state security. Then, one day, wham! No one was allowed to leave the country any more, and the government shifted to a totalitarian framework in which the people were no longer free. I seem to remember from history class that they never even saw it coming...
Not that I'm making any comparisons. Lord knows that could NEVER happen HERE.
I don't know if they'd make owning a non-TCPA computer illegal, but they would probably make producing, importing, or selling one illegal. So those of us with old hardware could still use it, until its obsolescence made it completely useless and it no longer is able to connect to any network. Then, unless we figure something else out, we would be stuck with Microsoft's weak software, and since there would be no competition, they would have no incentive whatsoever to do any QA. This puts us back in the situation we had with Windows 9x!!!
Bruce Sterling had an interesting idea in one of his novels: small, cheaply made laptops produced by underground groups, which interact over wi-fi within their own network inaccessible from the 'normal' internet. Totally underground. I liked it.
Yeah, but won't the irony be delicious? Besides, I think Chinese guys will think it's absolutely hilarious. I figure they'll be enjoying the situation so much they'll give us a discount and we'll be able to get computers that are not just efficient and devoid of spyware, but cheap, too. It's a win-win situation all around. Besides... I would LOVE an excuse to go shopping in Hong Kong again. What a wonderful city...
OR, I could stick to Linux, which I relatively trust and whose developers I think are a little more lofty-minded than their Microsoft counterparts. But, really -- don't you think they're going to finegle with the system to make life hard for non-joiners and GDIs ("God Damned Independents") who don't want to play ball? I mean, you know, this is MICROSOFT. And, INTEL. You know what I mean.
Two words: import regulations. These are infinitely malleable, and I'm sure the companies pushing Palladium have thought about this exact issue. It may not be possible to do what you suggest.
;)
I'm a pessimist, though -- it might not be as bad as all that. Maybe.
Now, that's what I call a comprehensive, informative reply. Somebody mod this guy up, bigtime -- great post! Thanks for the info about Canterwood!
-Phil
Heh heh... Actually, I buy on Ebay so corporate types don't get my money. Down with the man! ;)
I hope you're right; The Chinese are doing something interesting, building up their own chip design by starting from an earlier Intel-like design they acquired legally. I think they'll probably end up with a pretty good processor by the time they're done. If we're lucky, they'll be interested in the export market! Or at least, there'll be companies who bring systems over here and sell them, maybe mail order...
You'll NEVER know. Actually, since they're planning on implementing a software kernel (like a mini-OS) in a BIOS chip, you won't know what it's doing at all. That secure channel between the motherboard, the video, and the peripherals? It's still there even if you "turn off" DRM. So, how do you know it isn't snooping on you? Or deliberately slowing down your non-DRM processing? Or, even non-deliberately slowing it down -- do you think they're going to waste QA time on those of us who reject their pet project? It's just a big mess.
I'll tell you this much: I don't trust Microsoft and Intel not to completely screw up the system in one way or another. They've both turned out some seriously buggy stuff over the years. Remember the floating point bug? Remember the latest Microsoft vulnerability? Remember the Intel chip-ID brouhaha? I don't trust either company. And, AMD is playing along too, so where are we going to turn?
I'm telling you guys -- stock up on fast systems now, while you can. Get all your computer purchasing out of the way this year, and skip the whole DRM thing entirely. If you're *really* forced to, you can always buy a cheapo, 500.00 box/appliance down the road (just for DRM purposes) and code on your *good* pre-Palladium machines.
An A/C said: "Large relative to what? Is your premise that IE isn't 85+% of the browsers out there? Or are you inferencing from the "small" to the market as a whole?"
That fifteen percent of the market is millions of users, dude. Millions of users is a nice customer base. I'd take a niche like that...
Besides, your example is flawed. All of the browsers you've mentioned (even IE) are FREE. Which is sort of why no one buys browsers any more, isn't it? Which sort of backs up MY point, doesn't it?
Hmm?
Well, that's true, but that's a niche market at most, and it's closely tied to government contracting and defense spending. I don't think it applies well to the broader market, where application companies aren't doing so hot. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it'll go away entirely, but I really don't think a lot of money is going to be made in applications software anymore.
I agree a hundred percent. I've got a public-sector job right now, and the internal postings are great; upward movement is definitely possible, and you're only competing against other civil servants for the positions (longevity and loyalty count). No outsider is allowed to poach the promotional slots, which is cool.
;)
I think the public sector is the only place left where you can get a job worth having. But that's just my opinion.
While I agree with every single one of your points, and I wish more people would (if more people understood the situation as you do, we wouldn't be in this mess), I am aware of the following:
1. Our government is bought and paid for by corporations and the very wealthy, all of whom are benefitting from the current situation. And, politicians don't care about what's right or wrong, they care about what will let them preserve their priviledged lives (e.g. that which pleases their corporate masters). Independents almost never get voted in, so we're stuck with the assholes the corporations WANT us to be stuck with. This isn't a democracy.
2. Most people aren't that bright, and buy hook, line and sinker the whole pro-status-quo party line. Explain to them what's being done to them and most of them will argue fiercely with you (or shrug and say, "I don't care"). Most people call me names whenever I speak my mind (I've been called a commie a lot lately, a marxist, a socialist, man it's getting tiresome). So these people aren't going to do a thing to put political pressure on anyone. They can't be bothered.
3. Even if people were willing to be roused up to do something about the collapse of our civilization (which, make no mistake, is what this is all about) we have no way of reaching them because the media are completely controlled by corporate interests and support the party line. If we were able to reach everyone, say through the internet, the news media would just run a story about how full of shit we are and most people would say, "Ha, you nearly got me, you trickster, you".
4. IF anyone were to actually have any success at motivating people to change the status quo, he'd be quietly killed off and it would be made to look like an accident, or worse, something discrediting, like a drug overdose or a freak murder with some kind of organized crime connection. Then, all of his work would be carefully unravelled. Think I'm wrong? Remember "cointelpro"? If you think anyone stopped doing that stuff, you'd better think again. It just went underground. Did you know that most of the members of the Chicago Seven have died already? All from appropriately random "accidents" and "illnesses". Think how statistically unlikely that is. None of them were all that old when they died. Of course, now I'll be branded a "conspiracy theorist" and that's ok. It just reinforces my point.
You don't seem to understand that the situation really IS hopeless. Completely so. My plan is to just give up on the whole thing and do my best to live whatever kind of life I can manage to live in this culture, and observe the race to the bottom with as much dignity as I can manage. God, what a bummer. But, there it is.
There is only one sure-fire way to make a lot of money online. Only one. Start a porn site with an attractive hook, like for example, a webcam about an actual couple which sets up a voyeur-type experience. You'd have to build a solid membership system, of course, which is difficult for people to pirate/crack, and that would be hard. But it's doable. Also you can probably get kick-backs from all the adult-check registration systems (which you'd need, anyway, to protect yourself from liability). You could set up "special events" like a threesome with a barfly, "viagara experimentation", "Roman Orgy Night", etc. Plus, you could sell DVDs of clips, and syndicate your better content to other adult sites.
;)
I'd do this in a second if I could figure out a way to arrange for a female partner (either kinky girlfriend or ambitious non-romantic low-inhibition type). But, I'm a slashdotter -- no girlfriend, no prospects, and I haven't been laid in two years. Oh well... But maybe one of you guys will have better luck.
Ah. You're assuming a few things about the Pointy Haired Boss (PHB):
1. That the PHB is going to be able to figure out how to USE the tool he finds.
2. That the site he attempts to download the tool from won't just totally pooch his computer for fun. Or give him a virus. Or a trojan. Or something more "interesting".
3. That a rival of his in the herd of suits at his office isn't checking the web logs to see who's been doing something naughty. "Oh, look! Bob's been downloading crackz! Heh heh... By, by, Bob. Hello, Bob's office." Corollary: that Homeland Security isn't looking at web traffic, too, in hopes of giving the PHB his very first body-cavity search. "Hey, Bob, is that a colon polyp?"
4. That the hacker types who built the tool even remotely like PHB's. I don't think they do, although I don't know any (honest). Seriously, if you were a hacker type, would YOU feel inclined to help a PHB rip off a programmer? It's not like the PHB would be willing to give you so much as a nickel for it...
5. That you can always build in a phone-home feature a-la Microsoft and collect data for a little while -- then sue the PHB for punitive damages for using the tool. And, if you're mean, press charges.
PHBs may WANT to crack your software protection, but that doesn't mean they'll have the ability to do so.
Well... I disagree with you *in a sense*, but not fully. I think open source has had a serious effect, for instance on the Shareware industry (which is, you must admit, just about dead). So let me clarify.
"traditional" applications software has solidified into it's more or less ultimate state. Just what else can you really put in a word processor? Or a spreadsheet? They've been done to death; they're complete. And, it's true that this particular area hasn't been killed by open source YET, but only because so many people get Word (or Works) with their computers, or with their office's MS bundle when they buy from a vendor. There's nothing left to do here, so there's really no reason for anyone to mess with that market. Think about it; let's say you don't want to use MS Office. What are you going to use? Probably either StarOffice, OpenOffice, or KOffice. there are probably others, all open source, and all pretty good. So, you're not going to be able to sell a word processor, ok? In my view, this means that except for Microsoft, the market is dominated by open source products, so it's fair to say that open source has crushed that segment (at least outside Microsoft's turf).
Let us expand this principle outwards.
Let's say you want an MP3 player. Fine! Are you going to buy one? Nah, you're probably going to download a perfectly free one. It'll probably be open source.
Let's say you want a tool that does X. Chances are, someone has an open source project that does X. Check out SourceForge. There's something that does just about everything in there, all of it open source and free for download and modification. So, why should I buy your tool to do X when I can just download a free one, and have the ability to trade it with my friends without any legal repercussions?
You seem to be missing a major point, here. There is software innovation going on. But it's going on in the open source community, and it's getting distributed freely. SO, this eliminates the incentive to try and start a company around a proprietary software product. IF you invest your money in a software company in this day and age, you throw it away, because every good idea has been thought of by SOMEONE, and it's likely to have an open source analogue. You can't compete with free, period. Even Microsoft is having fits trying to secure its continued existence. Seriously.
As long as it is possible for me to go download a free, high-quality tool that I can copy in an unlimited way with no legal encumberment, I'll choose that over a proprietary tool every time. And, believe me, plenty of other people are doing exactly the same thing. You should look into the situation more thoroughly.
For instance, you claim that no one is really using Mozilla, or Netscape, or Opera, but they have large user bases. Plenty of people prefer Mozilla. I'm using it right now. Your comments seem to indicate that you're a little bit out of touch with what's been going on.
Honest. I wouldn't lie to ya (this being slashdot, notwithstanding).
Well, that's certainly true. I'll admit, GETTING the gov job isn't easy. Our last round of interviews had ninety applicants for one position, and that was for a consulting job. However, once you're in, you're relatively safer than you would be in private industry, and you're working a 40 hour week with benefits and overtime (when it comes up) at time and a half.
I don't know if we're "flooded" but there is a lot of competition...
Before I say anything about the industry, let me start out by saying that you never, ever waste your time when you study computer science. Even if you never use it professionally (increasingly likely these days) you'll still find the ability to completely control a computer (as opposed to "using" a computer like most people) very valuable. Just think; by the time you're done with your degree program, you'll be able to understand and work with any computer you're plunked down next to. Not only that; you'll be able to make the thing do your bidding. That's a pearl of great price, don't think of it in career terms.
Having said that, yes, unfortunately the software industry is dead, at least from the perspective of the individual programmer. There are a lot of reasons for this, including:
1. Most corporations and private companies are outsourcing almost *everything*, usually either overseas (India, mostly) or to local companies that use overseas talent. You can't beat them on price, ok? Their cost of living is a fraction of yours, and they'll undercut you until you starve. It doesn't matter that your skills are superior, or that you're a great programmer; some guy in Bangalore can work for 1/5 what you cost, and to a pointy-haired boss, that's all that matters. This is a terrible, terrible thing, and corporations deserve no loyalty or mercy from us -- when their customer base can no longer afford their products thanks to rampant layoffs, they'll die off like the vermin they are. But there's nothing we (or anyone) can do about it, so we might as well accept it.
2. Even if a private company isn't going to go into full-blown outsourcing, they ARE going to rely mostly on contractors. What THIS means is, most of the work will go to inexpensive foreign talent ANYWAY (because now, the contracting companies will do the outsourcing) and those Americans who DO get contracting gigs will have to settle for chump change or lose the bid. IF, that is, you can get them to pay you at all -- there are lots, and I mean lots, of stories about people getting stiffed by companies. Corporate IT is a really dicey business for a programmer or admin these days.
3. Software companies aren't going to provide many jobs. Applications software is deader than hell. It's been slaughtered by the Open Source community, who can produce solid software that not only costs nothing, but which can be copied infinitely, and has no hidden gotchas like the equivalent proprietary software. You simply cannot compete with that; you can't beat them on quality, or on price, or even on style (most open source software these days even LOOKS good). It's a dead industry, ok? Not that this is a bad thing, necessarily, but it does mean you won't be able to count on a salary from this sector.
But it's not all doom and gloom. There are still a couple of places where you can make some money.
First of all, public sector jobs may not pay as much as the private sector USED to, but they sure pay a hell of a lot more NOW. Federal, State, and Local jobs are all unionized, so you're protected, and you get great benefits. So this is a great place to hunker down during the recession. One warning: they can be annoying places to work. But it's worth a little aggravation to have a steady job.
Second of all, if you're good at graphics, game companies are going to keep growing. They're making money hand over fist. But concentrate on console games. People are sick of having to upgrade their PCs every couple of years, and they're switching over to consoles at a breakneck pace.
Third, and this is pretty dicey, you might be able to make some bread writing Java and J2EE libraries and tools that corporations might want to buy. Get the money up front, though. Don't get stiffed. And, buy some kind of dongle or other copy-protection scheme, or corporations WILL pirate your code like mad. Think I'm kidding? Companies like to ask you for a "demo" and then, use that to do whatever project they had in mind. Then you don't get paid. Get the don