The guy who wrote the story is just sore that he didn't forward the mail and so didn't receive any money. Why, I just received my check for $4340.24 from Bill Gates only yesterday.
Let be me more realistic. As I've stated it above I've given in a 0% chance. I'd give it something like a one in a million chance. There could be a lucky discovery of some incredibly strong materials. But I think that people severely underestimate how long 30-60,000 (depending on design) miles is. That's really, really long. 15 years is a short time outiside of computing.
I think you're right to pick out batteries as an important developing technology. Well, I'd generalize it to power. If power consumption can be reduced enough there are many alternative sources of power.
Damn! I keep doing this. Sorry. I shall write on the board 100 times "I will not blow the whistle on scams that are in the interest of me and my fellow/.ers". I want this 15 year prediction to be true and maybe if we let this guy speak his lie it will help make it come true in 50-100 years time.
Do you have a PDA or some other way to maintain a diary over a long span of time? You should put my ID down in your diary 15 years hence and then we can meet again on/. to discuss the fine elevator that may or may not have been built using technology that may or may not have been built.
PS I already have a healthy dose of skepticism. Maybe you mean I need a healthy dose of gullibility.
I've read the article and I've read much more detailed studies. There is nothing new in that article whatsoever. The materials that are being discussed have been manufactured in tiny amounts by methods that do not scale to producing a string tens of thousands of miles long.
Note, I'm definitely not saying a space elevator is impossible. I'm just talking about the practical difficulties which extend well beyond political and financial problems.
...and nor could it. We are nowhere near having the kinds of materials required and no plausible extrapolation of technological development over the last century points to such a thing being possible. This is even more implausible than Kurzweil's prediction of a singularity happening in the next few decades. Why is it that people who should know better are often the people who understand the least? And why do other people take any notice of them?
I did forget. Thanks for reminding me. Though I have to admit I thought that I thought the last third or so of III was pretty bad. Luckily it was only a trilogy, the IVth movie would probably have been terrible. (Now that's a pretty absurd counterfactual.)
Christ! It's just a sig, not a definition of anything. I've used countless different sigs over the years. This particular sig is merely a response to the countless bumper stickers I've read over the years pronouncing that God exists, we must obey Jesus, Darwin is wrong and countless other articles of religious faith.
Re:What about evidence?
on
War Kayaking
·
· Score: 1
Amazing what you're able to deduce without any information.
It's found a lack of signs of life - at least a lack of certain types of sign. That in itself is a find.
Re:What about evidence?
on
War Kayaking
·
· Score: 1
It's unlikely that any evidence could change my view but not impossible. For example such evidence would have to come with some very strong additional evidence that I wasn't going insane. For example if I heard God speaking to me directly I'd see a psychiatrist right away (unless, of course, my illness made me not want to do so). I think the chances of me going that insane at some point in my life are probably greater than 1 in 100,000 and everything I say has to be predicated on the assumption that I'm not insane - otherwise I can't really say anything.
Still, once we're getting into that kind of realm of possibility I have to start considering a lot of other interesting hypotheses too - like that our universe is a big simulation running on some computer in some bigger universe. In fact, if God does exist I'd probably say that this was the most likely scenario.
I take the attitude that in oridnary life if you are 99.999999% confident of something it is reasonable to assert it without guarding phrases like "I'm 99.999999% sure that..." otherwise our speech would be so bogged down with such things that communication would become difficult. I admit that many things are a possibility, including fairies, unicorns and the Loch Ness monster. I also have no hesitation in denying the existence of at least two of those without having to to prepend the above phrase. Same goes for God.
Slashdot Mirror
Don't tell me they use gravity or air pressure to do switching.
...on the Manhattan project, what clock speed were their Pentiums running at?
The articles are far too long to read online, and many of the good ones are only in the paper edition.
You mean software that's expensive and clearly doesn't work?
The guy who wrote the story is just sore that he didn't forward the mail and so didn't receive any money. Why, I just received my check for $4340.24 from Bill Gates only yesterday.
I think you're right to pick out batteries as an important developing technology. Well, I'd generalize it to power. If power consumption can be reduced enough there are many alternative sources of power.
I may turn out to be wrong but it ain't flamebait.
Damn! I keep doing this. Sorry. I shall write on the board 100 times "I will not blow the whistle on scams that are in the interest of me and my fellow /.ers". I want this 15 year prediction to be true and maybe if we let this guy speak his lie it will help make it come true in 50-100 years time.
PS I already have a healthy dose of skepticism. Maybe you mean I need a healthy dose of gullibility.
Note, I'm definitely not saying a space elevator is impossible. I'm just talking about the practical difficulties which extend well beyond political and financial problems.
...and nor could it. We are nowhere near having the kinds of materials required and no plausible extrapolation of technological development over the last century points to such a thing being possible. This is even more implausible than Kurzweil's prediction of a singularity happening in the next few decades. Why is it that people who should know better are often the people who understand the least? And why do other people take any notice of them?
Go back to watching Matrix 2/3 & Star Wars 1/2.
I did forget. Thanks for reminding me. Though I have to admit I thought that I thought the last third or so of III was pretty bad. Luckily it was only a trilogy, the IVth movie would probably have been terrible. (Now that's a pretty absurd counterfactual.)
When was the last time you waited for a movie to come out and it was good?
Cows are cylinders of meat with a nose and four hooves sticking out. So are sheep, pigs and peop^H^H^H^Hgoats.
Christ! It's just a sig, not a definition of anything. I've used countless different sigs over the years. This particular sig is merely a response to the countless bumper stickers I've read over the years pronouncing that God exists, we must obey Jesus, Darwin is wrong and countless other articles of religious faith.
Amazing what you're able to deduce without any information.
Well I'm offering my very own body to the first beautiful woman who can demonstrate a working communicator to me.
Hmmm...I wonder if my sig is being mistaken for my content. Interesting, it kinda fits the context.
It's found a lack of signs of life - at least a lack of certain types of sign. That in itself is a find.
Still, once we're getting into that kind of realm of possibility I have to start considering a lot of other interesting hypotheses too - like that our universe is a big simulation running on some computer in some bigger universe. In fact, if God does exist I'd probably say that this was the most likely scenario.
No explanation needed.
I take the attitude that in oridnary life if you are 99.999999% confident of something it is reasonable to assert it without guarding phrases like "I'm 99.999999% sure that..." otherwise our speech would be so bogged down with such things that communication would become difficult. I admit that many things are a possibility, including fairies, unicorns and the Loch Ness monster. I also have no hesitation in denying the existence of at least two of those without having to to prepend the above phrase. Same goes for God.
...tasting coffee around. Just look at the hordes of /.ers showing off how they only care about the caffeine and not the taste.
...to whoever develops the warp drive and twice that for the transporter.