The market timing does not seem to be a show stopper if Sony can be ready to ship volume to the US in time for Christmas 2006. Seems that is still possible despite all the timing speculations. I think we will need to wait for E3 to hear more timing specifics directly from Sony.
Would it be possible to have an entry level PS3 with only a DVD drive? If so, combined with a likely lower processor price, the PS3 could have a relatively acceptable entry model (using the lower estimate and substituting a DVD drive would bring the "cost" to around $545. Assuming even the lower processor price is a bit high this price could be lower. I would not mind paying $200-$250 more to add an optional Blue-ray drive, especially since it turns the PS3 into a full function HD player, a distinctive advantage over the 360 and all the more reason for the PS3 to end up in my den with my where Sony want it to be...
So a key question seems to be: is the Blue ray drive a requirement or could it be an option?
Both digg and /. have (different) value
on
The Rise of Digg.com
·
· Score: 3, Interesting
I go to/. to read (and occasionally comment) on selected technical topics. The topic choice is predetermined, some I like, some I pass, many topics I'd like to see may never surface. Regardless, there is always a debate, some flaming and sometimes some laughs. Its all about the comments. I no longer look to/. for late breaking news, its invariably delayed or some news/topics never show up. Its all about the discussion...
I go to digg to get late breaking news, book mark my areas of interest (I invariably want to find an article again later) and "dig" for new information via users with related links. Digg's comments are mostly worthless dribble but I do not look for comment value on Digg.
Digg seems to be evolving (and hopefully improving their scalability). I hope to see some innovation on the proven/. concept (I am patient, I expect I will have to wait a while...).
He does not realize todays market if different
on
Bill Gates Speaks Out
·
· Score: 2, Insightful
From TFA: "But the Microsoft chairman on Tuesday said his company remains the overall industry leader, and he compared the current rivalries to legendary ones with Lotus, Novell and WordPerfect -- situations in which the Redmond company ultimately overcame steep odds to prevail."
Microsoft had a decisive advantage over Lotus, WordPerfect, Novell and IBM (OS/2) which was the monopoly power controlling the OEM (PC manufactures) and the "suite" killer app (MS Office). The same advantage (including unlimited cash) applied against Netscape.
But when you look at where Microsoft competed without a monopoly advantage or dominant market share their track record is poor. They still can out spend many (Sony for games) but Google has several key advantages, huge market capitalization (translates to abundant cash) and market leadership where the MS monopoly (and cash) may not be an advantage for Microsoft.
It is possible that its a whole new market place that Bill Gates has very little successful track record to use to compete with. Google (and in some ways Apple too) are ahead of Microsoft, delivering amazing products before Microsoft is in the market. Despite Microsoft's history of slowly wearing down the competition by experimenting with well funded solutions (V3 seems was often the transition point), Microsoft may be in for a humbling market experience.
Between Google, Linux and Apple (as a leading alternative to the MS desktop), I'd bet against Microsoft's previous golden touch.
This could be the shift that helps level the playing field. The consumer and the market benefits. No monopoly historically has prevailed forever, it is doubtful Microsoft will be the exception.
Record any show from Cable, Satellite (or I guess off air) Fully network enabled Automatically skip commercials (this is worth big $$ alone!) Automatically transfer shows to a "media" server (no need to have a huge DVR disk) Stream shows off media server to DVR or any locally networked suitable device (e.g., PC any OS) Import any video to media center (including DVDs) to stream to DVR or networked PC (or Mac Mini?) Play shows off of DVR or media server from suitable networked devices
I do all of this today with my ReplayTV 5040, DVArchive.and RTVTools.
Here is what I can not do yet that I would like to do:
Record two channels at one time 5.1 digital audio in and 5.1 audio out HD recording
Personally I'll pass on the toys like weather, games and pictures. I already stream digital music to any stereo (Slimedevices) so I do not need a DVR to handle this though I think it would be a plus to have an iTunes compatible player of locally networked music.
On cost, yes, I had to buy the ReplayTV and chose to pay the one time $250 activation (total cost was about $350 HW+activation).
I am sure I missed a few features but right now I only miss the two channel recording and when ever there is reasonable HD content I may miss not being able to record that...
So, as for what I'd suggest TiVo and their SDK allow, at least all the above. At no additional charge.
It continues to be interesting to see who adapts and benefits from the inevitable shifts.
RIAA wanted to stay with retail shrink wrapped CDs (profitable and their advantage). Users became empowered with alternative choices (ripping, P2P, portable divices). Apple said a portable player and fee music download was possible (and now leads the industry on both). Sony thought their 1990's proprietary tricks would still work (what were they thinking?? they have no share yet).
Regardless of the forecast by 2008 it will be big and (fee) downloads will be very viable and may out sell traditional music CDs.
The classic paradigm shift rules apply - risk takers and early adopters of new technology and processes will win. The laggards (read RIAA and Sony!) will loose. Who knows what it will be like in 2008 but there will be lots of portable players and a big (fee) download market.
Apple will benefit from their insights and I doubt Sony will be in the top 5.
Life (and business) goes on.
P.S. The Sony article says "... Sony had found that users of its flash memory music players are not happy with the company's current system" -- me thinks "not happy with" is really "not buying" the non MP3 devices -- hello Sony, is this really a surprise?
Article restored my faith (in Craigslist)
on
Craig and his List
·
· Score: 5, Interesting
This article restored my faith in the "google" philosophy, Craig is doing the right thing and not selling out. Until reading this in-depth interview I interpreted the story earlier this week implying Craig had sold out. On the contrary, it turns out a former employee with 25% (closely held) shares sold them independently which is a whole lot different from Craigslist negotiating a sale to eBay.
I recommend/. readers read the entire interview (warning, its long, but hey, its Sunday morning...). My faith in (as Craig calls us) nerds is restored. We gotta make a living but we don't have to sell out.
Its a long shot to think that eBay could expand to include a highly regional business. My guess is its not likely to happen, but if it does I may take another look at eBay. In the mean time, Craigslist meets all my needs and after reading the article I an reassured that they match my philosophical views too. Like Google, doing simple very well can be fair and also profitable.
I've used Craigslist to sell loads of stuff very successfully. I prefer it because it allows me to sell things locally eliminating the need for shipping, and concerns with payment. I've sold everything so far with a "look at it, test it, if you like it pay cash" model. No frills ad, FREE and annonomous email. Simple and effective. I trust cash. No disatisfied buyers yet.
I've avoided ebay because I prefer local not global. I may be the only one that does not trust a buyer I do not meet. Ebay is not free or allowing annonomous email.
My hope is Craig keeps it simple and free. I still have lots of stuff I plan to sell and do not need the hassles of ebay. I doubt ebay can effectily morph to meet local and face to face transactions. certainly not for free...
I am getting 400+ KB/sec download of the full SP2 from the Microsoft site here: http://download.microsoft.com/download/1/6/5/165b0 76b-aaa9-443d-84f0-73cf11fdcdf8/WindowsXP-KB835935 -SP2-ENU.exe
I wanted the full download version for when I need to rebuild my system (a ritual every 6 months).
I do not see a need to take any risks with bit torrents, the download speed with a cable modem is less than 10 minutes. Doubt there will many complaints with that. Dial up users may need to get the CD or ask a friend for the full SP2.
I read the reference article when it first hit/. I am now returning to see the/. comments. Based on what I've scanned (>1 scores), it does not look like most people read the article. Understandable maybe because its long and yes, suspicious since it sounds like yet another iPod killer theory.
But I suggest those that have not read it take a look. The writer builds a good case. Everyone who has a cell phone will carry it before anything else (true for me, my G3 iPod is great but its not exactly invisible to carry, the mini maybe). processing power and storage is improving radically. Who would have thought 600-1000 songs could fit in a device the size of a zippo lighter on steroids a few years ago? Yes, convergent theories aside, this one does make sense.
The author also seems to position why Apple freaked at Real's encroachment. Its more about who controls DRM distribution in the long run - music as well as movies/video content. Despite the (rumored) loss leader of Apples iTunes service, there is big bucks in who controls the distribution in the long run. Apple (actually Jobs) is really plugged into the movie industry and the argument that the distribution of all (DRM) digital content may be the next big thing to homes and portables has some logic. iTune/iPod have been primarily a US success (remember, we are 4% of the world population) so getting control of the distribution of digital media worldwide is huge. Jobs gets it. Not sure the tunnel vision music or movie industry sees it (yet).
Don't get me wrong, I love my iPods (yes...). But I have a history of lots of cool things that morph over the long run. I am not worried, I'd love a tiny device that is the gotta have device for communication and storage/playback (I assume audio playback not video). All it needs is a processor, storage, a few keys and a ear phone jack -- wait -- this is not anything radical, it could be the same platform as a next gen phone.
I humbly suggest you take a peek at the article, worth the read.
A
quote from IBM: "For each of the
past 11 years (1993 - 2003), IBM has been granted more U.S. patents
than any other company. During that period IBM has received 25,772 US
patents. In 2003, IBM received 3,415 U.S. patents, breaking the record
it set previously for the most US patents received in a single year."
Gotta admit thats kinda impressive...
Microsoft may want to earn more respect now that they have started to
share their $60+ billion war chest with their stock holders. Fair
enough. But they can't earn my respect my just saying that they did
2,000 patents last year, and may do 3,000 this year -- so what? Lets
see some sustained performance or at least publish their sustained
historical performance...
The question is can they deliver patents over the long haul... they
already got the easy ones... Patent No. 6,748,582 (Microsoft's patents
the "to-do list").
I have two systems, with about 1.3 and 2.5 TB respectively for archiving DVD quality video and MP3s. I looked at RAID but found it was not necessary. I prefer to manage the disks (some are removable) and do not need high performance even when streaming the video over my in home LAN.
I use DVArchive with DVD or satellite to ReplayTV for video capture and play back, DVA is great for managing multiple volumes and dynamically discovers vidoes if I want to move them to another drive. It also supports copy/move between the two systems (I use a 1Gb switch between systems). CPU performance is not key for play back though it is critical for transcoding (I use a dual processor system for transcoding and it smokes my single CPU system).
I have a LARGE MP3 collection (forgive me for not publically admitting to its size) and I find the same systems/drives are ample for supporitng a digital audio library. I switched to iTunes for managing music (MusicMatch melts down when the number of files gets large) and stream it with SlimServer to squeezebox devices for high quality playback on home theater and other receivers.
My recommendation is to go with generic disk drives - brand names, 7200 RPM with 1-3 year warranties --I get them locally on sale for under $150, sometimes $130/250GB, thats 52 cents per GB, a little more per GB than a DVD-R disk but more reliable and infinitely more flexible. I can recreate a DVD off of the disk image if needed.
I am more concerned with heat and power consumption (it adds up) than disk performance, someone will need to explain to me why I'd need to mess with RAID for this...
If a "few" cable users are using excessive bandwidth, how much is too much, and what percentage of the users are "abusing"?
Methinks this a a brilliant (unfounded) excuse to jack up our fees while cracking down on access to competitive high bandwidth applications (its OK to watch AT&T sponsored video (for a fee) but not OK to watch a competitor's...) I might be convinced there is a problem if the data is provided to prove it (I am not holding my breath).
Lacking convincing data, this is likely a ruse to control and extort (not that this is a new objective when someone controls resource access).
This sounds like it is (at the moment) limited to cable ISPs. I hope my alternate options of DSL or 2-way satellite will allow me to drop my cable service if they try to cut me off.
Slashdot Mirror
Would it be possible to have an entry level PS3 with only a DVD drive? If so, combined with a likely lower processor price, the PS3 could have a relatively acceptable entry model (using the lower estimate and substituting a DVD drive would bring the "cost" to around $545. Assuming even the lower processor price is a bit high this price could be lower. I would not mind paying $200-$250 more to add an optional Blue-ray drive, especially since it turns the PS3 into a full function HD player, a distinctive advantage over the 360 and all the more reason for the PS3 to end up in my den with my where Sony want it to be...
So a key question seems to be: is the Blue ray drive a requirement or could it be an option?
I go to /. to read (and occasionally comment) on selected technical topics. The topic choice is predetermined, some I like, some I pass, many topics I'd like to see may never surface. Regardless, there is always a debate, some flaming and sometimes some laughs. Its all about the comments. I no longer look to /. for late breaking news, its invariably delayed or some news/topics never show up. Its all about the discussion...
/. concept (I am patient, I expect I will have to wait a while...).
I go to digg to get late breaking news, book mark my areas of interest (I invariably want to find an article again later) and "dig" for new information via users with related links. Digg's comments are mostly worthless dribble but I do not look for comment value on Digg.
Digg seems to be evolving (and hopefully improving their scalability). I hope to see some innovation on the proven
From TFA: "But the Microsoft chairman on Tuesday said his company remains the overall industry leader, and he compared the current rivalries to legendary ones with Lotus, Novell and WordPerfect -- situations in which the Redmond company ultimately overcame steep odds to prevail."
Microsoft had a decisive advantage over Lotus, WordPerfect, Novell and IBM (OS/2) which was the monopoly power controlling the OEM (PC manufactures) and the "suite" killer app (MS Office). The same advantage (including unlimited cash) applied against Netscape.
But when you look at where Microsoft competed without a monopoly advantage or dominant market share their track record is poor. They still can out spend many (Sony for games) but Google has several key advantages, huge market capitalization (translates to abundant cash) and market leadership where the MS monopoly (and cash) may not be an advantage for Microsoft.
It is possible that its a whole new market place that Bill Gates has very little successful track record to use to compete with. Google (and in some ways Apple too) are ahead of Microsoft, delivering amazing products before Microsoft is in the market. Despite Microsoft's history of slowly wearing down the competition by experimenting with well funded solutions (V3 seems was often the transition point), Microsoft may be in for a humbling market experience.
Between Google, Linux and Apple (as a leading alternative to the MS desktop), I'd bet against Microsoft's previous golden touch.
This could be the shift that helps level the playing field. The consumer and the market benefits. No monopoly historically has prevailed forever, it is doubtful Microsoft will be the exception.
Here is what I want to be able to do:
Record any show from Cable, Satellite (or I guess off air)
Fully network enabled
Automatically skip commercials (this is worth big $$ alone!)
Automatically transfer shows to a "media" server (no need to have a huge DVR disk)
Stream shows off media server to DVR or any locally networked suitable device (e.g., PC any OS)
Import any video to media center (including DVDs) to stream to DVR or networked PC (or Mac Mini?)
Play shows off of DVR or media server from suitable networked devices
I do all of this today with my ReplayTV 5040, DVArchive.and RTVTools.
Here is what I can not do yet that I would like to do:
Record two channels at one time
5.1 digital audio in and 5.1 audio out
HD recording
Personally I'll pass on the toys like weather, games and pictures. I already stream digital music to any stereo (Slimedevices) so I do not need a DVR to handle this though I think it would be a plus to have an iTunes compatible player of locally networked music.
On cost, yes, I had to buy the ReplayTV and chose to pay the one time $250 activation (total cost was about $350 HW+activation).
I am sure I missed a few features but right now I only miss the two channel recording and when ever there is reasonable HD content I may miss not being able to record that...
So, as for what I'd suggest TiVo and their SDK allow, at least all the above. At no additional charge.
It continues to be interesting to see who adapts and benefits from the inevitable shifts.
RIAA wanted to stay with retail shrink wrapped CDs (profitable and their advantage). Users became empowered with alternative choices (ripping, P2P, portable divices). Apple said a portable player and fee music download was possible (and now leads the industry on both). Sony thought their 1990's proprietary tricks would still work (what were they thinking?? they have no share yet).
Regardless of the forecast by 2008 it will be big and (fee) downloads will be very viable and may out sell traditional music CDs.
The classic paradigm shift rules apply - risk takers and early adopters of new technology and processes will win. The laggards (read RIAA and Sony!) will loose. Who knows what it will be like in 2008 but there will be lots of portable players and a big (fee) download market.
Apple will benefit from their insights and I doubt Sony will be in the top 5.
Life (and business) goes on.
P.S.
The Sony article says "... Sony had found that users of its flash memory music players are not happy with the company's current system" -- me thinks "not happy with" is really "not buying" the non MP3 devices -- hello Sony, is this really a surprise?
This article restored my faith in the "google" philosophy, Craig is doing the right thing and not selling out. Until reading this in-depth interview I interpreted the story earlier this week implying Craig had sold out. On the contrary, it turns out a former employee with 25% (closely held) shares sold them independently which is a whole lot different from Craigslist negotiating a sale to eBay.
/. readers read the entire interview (warning, its long, but hey, its Sunday morning...). My faith in (as Craig calls us) nerds is restored. We gotta make a living but we don't have to sell out.
I recommend
Its a long shot to think that eBay could expand to include a highly regional business. My guess is its not likely to happen, but if it does I may take another look at eBay. In the mean time, Craigslist meets all my needs and after reading the article I an reassured that they match my philosophical views too. Like Google, doing simple very well can be fair and also profitable.
I've used Craigslist to sell loads of stuff very successfully. I prefer it because it allows me to sell things locally eliminating the need for shipping, and concerns with payment. I've sold everything so far with a "look at it, test it, if you like it pay cash" model. No frills ad, FREE and annonomous email. Simple and effective. I trust cash. No disatisfied buyers yet.
I've avoided ebay because I prefer local not global. I may be the only one that does not trust a buyer I do not meet. Ebay is not free or allowing annonomous email.
My hope is Craig keeps it simple and free. I still have lots of stuff I plan to sell and do not need the hassles of ebay. I doubt ebay can effectily morph to meet local and face to face transactions. certainly not for free...
I am getting 400+ KB/sec download of the full SP2 from the Microsoft site here: http://download.microsoft.com/download/1/6/5/165b0 76b-aaa9-443d-84f0-73cf11fdcdf8/WindowsXP-KB835935 -SP2-ENU.exe
I wanted the full download version for when I need to rebuild my system (a ritual every 6 months).
I do not see a need to take any risks with bit torrents, the download speed with a cable modem is less than 10 minutes. Doubt there will many complaints with that. Dial up users may need to get the CD or ask a friend for the full SP2.
I read the reference article when it first hit /. I am now returning to see the /. comments. Based on what I've scanned (>1 scores), it does not look like most people read the article. Understandable maybe because its long and yes, suspicious since it sounds like yet another iPod killer theory.
But I suggest those that have not read it take a look. The writer builds a good case. Everyone who has a cell phone will carry it before anything else (true for me, my G3 iPod is great but its not exactly invisible to carry, the mini maybe). processing power and storage is improving radically. Who would have thought 600-1000 songs could fit in a device the size of a zippo lighter on steroids a few years ago? Yes, convergent theories aside, this one does make sense.
The author also seems to position why Apple freaked at Real's encroachment. Its more about who controls DRM distribution in the long run - music as well as movies/video content. Despite the (rumored) loss leader of Apples iTunes service, there is big bucks in who controls the distribution in the long run. Apple (actually Jobs) is really plugged into the movie industry and the argument that the distribution of all (DRM) digital content may be the next big thing to homes and portables has some logic. iTune/iPod have been primarily a US success (remember, we are 4% of the world population) so getting control of the distribution of digital media worldwide is huge. Jobs gets it. Not sure the tunnel vision music or movie industry sees it (yet).
Don't get me wrong, I love my iPods (yes...). But I have a history of lots of cool things that morph over the long run. I am not worried, I'd love a tiny device that is the gotta have device for communication and storage/playback (I assume audio playback not video). All it needs is a processor, storage, a few keys and a ear phone jack -- wait -- this is not anything radical, it could be the same platform as a next gen phone.
I humbly suggest you take a peek at the article, worth the read.
A quote from IBM: "For each of the past 11 years (1993 - 2003), IBM has been granted more U.S. patents than any other company. During that period IBM has received 25,772 US patents. In 2003, IBM received 3,415 U.S. patents, breaking the record it set previously for the most US patents received in a single year."
Gotta admit thats kinda impressive...
Microsoft may want to earn more respect now that they have started to share their $60+ billion war chest with their stock holders. Fair enough. But they can't earn my respect my just saying that they did 2,000 patents last year, and may do 3,000 this year -- so what? Lets see some sustained performance or at least publish their sustained historical performance...
The question is can they deliver patents over the long haul... they already got the easy ones... Patent No. 6,748,582 (Microsoft's patents the "to-do list").
I am forgetful but not yet impr,eTOEd...
I have two systems, with about 1.3 and 2.5 TB respectively for archiving DVD quality video and MP3s. I looked at RAID but found it was not necessary. I prefer to manage the disks (some are removable) and do not need high performance even when streaming the video over my in home LAN.
I use DVArchive with DVD or satellite to ReplayTV for video capture and play back, DVA is great for managing multiple volumes and dynamically discovers vidoes if I want to move them to another drive. It also supports copy/move between the two systems (I use a 1Gb switch between systems). CPU performance is not key for play back though it is critical for transcoding (I use a dual processor system for transcoding and it smokes my single CPU system).
I have a LARGE MP3 collection (forgive me for not publically admitting to its size) and I find the same systems/drives are ample for supporitng a digital audio library. I switched to iTunes for managing music (MusicMatch melts down when the number of files gets large) and stream it with SlimServer to squeezebox devices for high quality playback on home theater and other receivers.
My recommendation is to go with generic disk drives - brand names, 7200 RPM with 1-3 year warranties --I get them locally on sale for under $150, sometimes $130/250GB, thats 52 cents per GB, a little more per GB than a DVD-R disk but more reliable and infinitely more flexible. I can recreate a DVD off of the disk image if needed.
I am more concerned with heat and power consumption (it adds up) than disk performance, someone will need to explain to me why I'd need to mess with RAID for this...
If a "few" cable users are using excessive bandwidth, how much is too much, and what percentage of the users are "abusing"? Methinks this a a brilliant (unfounded) excuse to jack up our fees while cracking down on access to competitive high bandwidth applications (its OK to watch AT&T sponsored video (for a fee) but not OK to watch a competitor's...) I might be convinced there is a problem if the data is provided to prove it (I am not holding my breath). Lacking convincing data, this is likely a ruse to control and extort (not that this is a new objective when someone controls resource access). This sounds like it is (at the moment) limited to cable ISPs. I hope my alternate options of DSL or 2-way satellite will allow me to drop my cable service if they try to cut me off.