Also, if you plan is so good, why are CO2 emissions in both CA and Germany going up during periods of historic wind and solar deployments?
Uh, no. Both CA and German CO2 emissions have gone down over the last 20 years. In fact, CA is below their 1990 emission level. Germany also dropped over the last 20 years. Now, both have plateaued and Germany is building new coal plants (yeah, several germans like to claim that it is replacement, but when you burn a great deal more coal, then you are adding), and if CA actually closed both nuke plants which provide something like 1/3 of their power, they will also have to build new coal or at least nat gas. Either way, their CO2 WILL rise a great deal with that.
I will say that there are NO nations or states that are 100% powered by wind/solar, esp of any size (IIRC, CA's economy remains in the top 10, if not top 5, largest economy in the world). The fact is, that the ONLY nations that have moved to clean energy are those running combinations of nuke, hydro, and/or geo-thermal. Costa Rica is a good example. There electricity is pretty much 100% CO2 free. Hydro and geo-thermal form about 90% of their energy. The rest is wind and solar, but they are focused on the first 2. The later 2 are too expensive for them.
So, you think that you should tell nuclear power how things are to be. Really?
Then here is a thought. Who will insure wind and solar for not providing power 24x7? Will that be you? Will you pay us for not providing power? What about when a volcano erupts for months on end? How will you provide lots of power? Will you pay the insurance bill for the citizens that die because you could not provide the electricity? Or are you going to further destroy the planet with natural gas?
LOL.
What exactly do you think that Uranium is doing constantly? Where do you think that GEO-THERMAL ENERGY comes from? U think that the sun is warming our planet? Nope. A big part of that heat is from radioactive decay.
wrong.
Advanced Small Modular reactors that use physics to avoid meltdown are perfect. With NuScale, shy of a nuclear explosion on top of it, it will not meltdown. It requires NO ACTIVE intervention.
If you are going to compare Fukushima, then are you also going to compare hindenberg to today's H2 vehicles and the Pinto to today's electric cars (both are cars)?
Fact is, that your apple/orange comparison is no different than the 2 I just posted.
DoE just signed a contract with UAMP to basically own 2 NuScale reactors out of the 12 that are coming. It will take a bit of time to build these (on-line in 2026), but they will be able to scale up to 1 reactor / month. IOW, by 2028, they can start building out new sites with 10-12 reactors for 600-720 MW sites. While this is less than massive 1+GW reactors that GE-Toshiba or Westinghouse push, these are near impossible to meltdown, can go up quickly, are passive meltdown proofed, and are quite cheap compared to coal, and even AE (if you add in the batteries for short-time on-demand).
The question becomes, will DoE under Perry and CONgress work together to push Nuclear power. One thing that he really should be doing is requiring that at least 2/3 to 3/4 of the energy be capable of on-demand for at least a week, if not a month. We are moving to electricity being the main form of energy (esp by moving our transportation to electric), so, it really needs to be solid. While price figures in, so should national/states security.
I'll tell you what. We have postings here, that are permanent and both of us use our logins. As such, we will be able to look back in 1-2 year and see where things are headed.
And no, I would argue that you got absolutely NOTHING right. Hell, by the time I need to replace the battery in my Model S, it will costs less than $5K, if not $2K. Replacing an engine is more expensive.
There are issues, but, those will be gone by 2 years.
LOL.
The above was posted by Caffeinated Bacon/Crimson Tsunami.
He claims to be quoting, yet, as he always does, he LIES.
First off, new ICE cars will probably stop selling in about 2 more years. Certainly the luxury versions will because rich ppl will not want to put down 80K and in 2 years, have it be worth 10K. They are not stupid.
First, as to your last paragraph, I have no doubt that EVs will be more than 50% of new passenger vehicles (minus trucks) by end of 2022/3. We will see more EVs sold in America/Europe, than ICE (again, minus trucks). Ppl can see this coming a mile away. EVs are cheaper to own, lower maintenance, faster, more room in same volume, etc. etc. Tesla is the only EV that is actually cheaper than its competition, but, they will force legacy car makers to follow. Even now, the luxury car makers are moving to decent luxury EVs because they are losing huge numbers of sales to Tesla (according to Porsche, BMW, Audi, Volvo, Caddy). Interestingly, Lexus and infiniti have dropped sales a great deal over the last 2 years, but, they are not saying anything, except still focusing on H2 cars.
As to paying more for the larger battery, it gives us the ability to driver further on occasion when needed, but otherwise, it makes sure that my battery will outlast me and my kids. But if you think that gas is cheaper than electricity, you have to be kidding. Here, lets get a perspective.
Our car does 250 MPC when full. That is 85 KWH, but we are going to assume 100 kWh (easier calcs). Now, we pay $.08/kWh in the summer and $.0459/kWh for winter (xcel TOU). We will simply use $.08. So, that means to drive 250 miles, we will pay $8.00 or.032 / mile.
In a comparable car, say a class S, the owner will get 15-20 MPG. Let say that gas is at $2.00 / gal (in Denver, it is $2.5-2.80, but we will go your way). To drive 250 miles, you will have 12.5-16 gal. Lets assume 14 gals, so, $28 to drive 250 miles. That makes it $.112 / mile. Now, I have been weighed all of this your way, and it still turns out that gas will be 4x what electricity will costs. And notice that the MB's Class S that competes against our Model S, are slow, high maintenance, and will actually costs a great deal more to get less luxury in the car. In addition, resale values on Luxury ICE vehicles are plummeting. OTOH Tesla are holding their values (note that most EVS drop at same rate as ICE, but the Tesla does not). This page is Oct, but in Nov, EV sales are now over 2.5% of car sales in America. I will guess that EVs are over 3% for Dec.
Note that next year, a number of REAL EVs will be released. Rivian has a truck and SUV coming. Porsche has Taycon. There are decent EVs coming from MB, Audi, Jag, volvo, etc. And these EVs will be cheaper than the competing ICE vehicles.
Hmm. If your writing style was different, I would say that you were actually Caffeinated bacon / Crimson Tsunami.
So many things wrong with what you wrote there.
Our 2013 model S has an 85 KWH pack. In there are 16 modules of 444 Panasonic 18650 cells EACH, or 7104 cells. Now, the way Tesla works is that it treats the modules as a round robin queue. IOW, it will first use A up, and then B, etc. By use it up, I mean down to around 20%. However, what happens when I gun it? Then it needs ALL OF THE MODULES. So, it will pull power from all, until I let up, then it will go back to A or AB or ABC. In addition, we charge our car up to around 80%. If we are taking a trip, or will be driving all day long, then yeah, we fill it up. All of this is done at home on a 120V/20A line (moving to a 240/50, but the 120 works fine).
Now, why do we do this? Because of the charge cycle life. These Panasonic DO have the ability to be charged 500x from empty to full. However, if you ONLY do partial refills, then you have 10s of 1000s of refills before it actually makes a noticeable impact.
500 cycles? But that’s (relatively) low! Yes. But what is not shown on the spec sheet is that when you partially charge and discharge, degradation of the battery capacity is reduced. Thus, you can do over 40 000 charge/discharge cycles when going from 30% to 70% only. Or over 35 000 charge/discharge cycles from 20% to 80%; 28 000 cycles from 10% to 90%; 15 000 cycles from 8% to 92%, 7500 cylces from 6% to 94%, and the capacity reduction goes faster and faster, finally reaching 500 cycles when recharging from 0% to 100%.
As such, by plugging in our car DAILY, and only taking it up to say 60% in the summer and 80% in the winter, we will have 35-40K charge cycles. COMBINE that with using a limited number of modules in a round robin, as you drive , and say you are looking at 2 charge / week each cell (or 104x a year) dividing into then your MS has 300+ years of driving on those batteries. If you assume that you do a monthly trip, then you are probably looking at 50+ years. I would say that is plenty.
Another killer to li-ion is heat. When you super charge, u generate heat and even though tesla does a decent job on thermal, Supercharging is still hard on the battery.
One guy I know, a realtor, has a 60KWH MS that he was using for taking customers around. daily. So, he would go to park meadows and charge. daily. up to trip level. Within 100K miles, his car WAS doing exactly as you think. His battery capacity had fallen a great deal. He was in the 80 %, which he should not be. BUT when tesla looked over the logs and found out how he was running his car, it became obvious that he was destroying it. Basically, we are TOLD to run it below trip level on a daily basis (so, charge in the daily basis range). We are also told to charge level 2 and under for most of your times. Do not keep it in trip range and do not use the super charger for your personal charger. BTW, multiple MSs have over 250K miles and their packs are above 90%.
As to range anxiety, my wife has had it twice in 3+ years.
The first time was when I took her up to Mount Evans in the car. When we got up top, we had less than 90 miles and home was over 90. She was nervous about that, until I told her that she was not to use the brakes, and just use regen. When we down to the front range, we were at 120 miles left. She no longer gets anxious about mountain driving, esp since there are loads of chargers along the way now.
Another time, she had to make multiple trips in a day. This was about a month ago, when the new software update came out. She was not paying attention and apparently, it did not have the bells/whistles turned back on. When she looked she had 20 miles left and about 20-25 miles to go. IOW, driving home was iffy. So, I talked her into stopping at a walgreens (she had something like 2-3 miles showing when she pulled in), we charged for an hour and t
America has a number of nasty state prisons and a few wicked federal prisons. However, trump will never see those. He would almost certainly be in our nicest prison. He is a traitor, BUT, the fact is, that he is a sitting president.
This was NOT brought on because the GOP went after Clinton (either of them).
It was brought on because Trump's ppl were working with Russians to win the election by illegal means. He was caught by the intelligence community and caught them talking to Russians and Chinese trying to make deals.
Was it illegal/criminal that the intelligence community was listening in, as some like to claim? NO, because they were taping russian/chinese SPIES.
This was actually started under Clinton and was to happen in 2001. But W postponed it until 2016. Oddly, had this happened in the 00s, most coal plants would have elected to clean up. It was the fact that nat. Gas was so cheap, that caused american coal plants to replace most of the dirtiest ones. Many of the ones closed will stay closed, BUT, it is probable that EVs are going to cause a number of these to reopen. Hopefully, trump pushes nuke SMR fast.
U can not impeach for this ( though he is fucking insane ). However, when mueller is done, I have no doubt that trump, most of his family, pence, and most of his admin, will go down for violations of Logan's act combined with many other indictments. But, technically, this is legal.
Don't kid yourself. I have deal with 2 chinese spies. Oddly, one of them grew up in Taiwan. The fact is, that most Chinese HATE their gov but love their nation and ppl (not much different than here). As such, they will gladly knock their gov, BUT, once they see fellow country men, coming under attack, they will defend them.
Slashdot Mirror
this stops the FCC from destroying more of America.
NOW, ideally, it is time to EPA to announce a shutdown, at least at the top.
spot on.
Also, if you plan is so good, why are CO2 emissions in both CA and Germany going up during periods of historic wind and solar deployments?
Uh, no. Both CA and German CO2 emissions have gone down over the last 20 years. In fact, CA is below their 1990 emission level. Germany also dropped over the last 20 years. Now, both have plateaued and Germany is building new coal plants (yeah, several germans like to claim that it is replacement, but when you burn a great deal more coal, then you are adding), and if CA actually closed both nuke plants which provide something like 1/3 of their power, they will also have to build new coal or at least nat gas. Either way, their CO2 WILL rise a great deal with that.
I will say that there are NO nations or states that are 100% powered by wind/solar, esp of any size (IIRC, CA's economy remains in the top 10, if not top 5, largest economy in the world). The fact is, that the ONLY nations that have moved to clean energy are those running combinations of nuke, hydro, and/or geo-thermal. Costa Rica is a good example. There electricity is pretty much 100% CO2 free. Hydro and geo-thermal form about 90% of their energy. The rest is wind and solar, but they are focused on the first 2. The later 2 are too expensive for them.
Im 60. I turned down working for MS back in their early days. That fuck was NEVER a real coder. He basically stole just about everything that he did.
France, Italy, and Germany all pushed America to raid Libya. Obama did not want to go in. They called it in with NATO.
So, you think that you should tell nuclear power how things are to be. Really?
Then here is a thought. Who will insure wind and solar for not providing power 24x7? Will that be you? Will you pay us for not providing power? What about when a volcano erupts for months on end? How will you provide lots of power? Will you pay the insurance bill for the citizens that die because you could not provide the electricity? Or are you going to further destroy the planet with natural gas?
LOL.
What exactly do you think that Uranium is doing constantly? Where do you think that GEO-THERMAL ENERGY comes from? U think that the sun is warming our planet? Nope. A big part of that heat is from radioactive decay.
wrong.
Advanced Small Modular reactors that use physics to avoid meltdown are perfect. With NuScale, shy of a nuclear explosion on top of it, it will not meltdown. It requires NO ACTIVE intervention.
If you are going to compare Fukushima, then are you also going to compare hindenberg to today's H2 vehicles and the Pinto to today's electric cars (both are cars)?
Fact is, that your apple/orange comparison is no different than the 2 I just posted.
No, gates is NOT a software guy. He is an executive guy. And he hires the ppl to do this.
DoE just signed a contract with UAMP to basically own 2 NuScale reactors out of the 12 that are coming. It will take a bit of time to build these (on-line in 2026), but they will be able to scale up to 1 reactor / month. IOW, by 2028, they can start building out new sites with 10-12 reactors for 600-720 MW sites. While this is less than massive 1+GW reactors that GE-Toshiba or Westinghouse push, these are near impossible to meltdown, can go up quickly, are passive meltdown proofed, and are quite cheap compared to coal, and even AE (if you add in the batteries for short-time on-demand).
The question becomes, will DoE under Perry and CONgress work together to push Nuclear power. One thing that he really should be doing is requiring that at least 2/3 to 3/4 of the energy be capable of on-demand for at least a week, if not a month. We are moving to electricity being the main form of energy (esp by moving our transportation to electric), so, it really needs to be solid. While price figures in, so should national/states security.
I'll tell you what. We have postings here, that are permanent and both of us use our logins. As such, we will be able to look back in 1-2 year and see where things are headed.
And no, I would argue that you got absolutely NOTHING right. Hell, by the time I need to replace the battery in my Model S, it will costs less than $5K, if not $2K. Replacing an engine is more expensive.
There are issues, but, those will be gone by 2 years.
The above was posted by Caffeinated Bacon/Crimson Tsunami.
He claims to be quoting, yet, as he always does, he LIES.
First off, new ICE cars will probably stop selling in about 2 more years. Certainly the luxury versions will because rich ppl will not want to put down 80K and in 2 years, have it be worth 10K. They are not stupid.
First, as to your last paragraph, I have no doubt that EVs will be more than 50% of new passenger vehicles (minus trucks) by end of 2022/3. We will see more EVs sold in America/Europe, than ICE (again, minus trucks). Ppl can see this coming a mile away. EVs are cheaper to own, lower maintenance, faster, more room in same volume, etc. etc. Tesla is the only EV that is actually cheaper than its competition, but, they will force legacy car makers to follow. Even now, the luxury car makers are moving to decent luxury EVs because they are losing huge numbers of sales to Tesla (according to Porsche, BMW, Audi, Volvo, Caddy). Interestingly, Lexus and infiniti have dropped sales a great deal over the last 2 years, but, they are not saying anything, except still focusing on H2 cars.
.032 / mile.
Range anxiety. Ok. Where do you live? I am going to assume that you are American. There are a FEW spots left in America that does not have decent coverage, but will be covered before end of next year. Here is what is being looked at for Tesla over the next month or so
As to paying more for the larger battery, it gives us the ability to driver further on occasion when needed, but otherwise, it makes sure that my battery will outlast me and my kids. But if you think that gas is cheaper than electricity, you have to be kidding. Here, lets get a perspective. Our car does 250 MPC when full. That is 85 KWH, but we are going to assume 100 kWh (easier calcs). Now, we pay $.08/kWh in the summer and $.0459/kWh for winter (xcel TOU). We will simply use $.08. So, that means to drive 250 miles, we will pay $8.00 or
In a comparable car, say a class S, the owner will get 15-20 MPG. Let say that gas is at $2.00 / gal (in Denver, it is $2.5-2.80, but we will go your way). To drive 250 miles, you will have 12.5-16 gal. Lets assume 14 gals, so, $28 to drive 250 miles. That makes it $.112 / mile. Now, I have been weighed all of this your way, and it still turns out that gas will be 4x what electricity will costs. And notice that the MB's Class S that competes against our Model S, are slow, high maintenance, and will actually costs a great deal more to get less luxury in the car.
In addition, resale values on Luxury ICE vehicles are plummeting. OTOH Tesla are holding their values (note that most EVS drop at same rate as ICE, but the Tesla does not).
This page is Oct, but in Nov, EV sales are now over 2.5% of car sales in America. I will guess that EVs are over 3% for Dec.
Note that next year, a number of REAL EVs will be released. Rivian has a truck and SUV coming. Porsche has Taycon. There are decent EVs coming from MB, Audi, Jag, volvo, etc. And these EVs will be cheaper than the competing ICE vehicles.
when you regen brake,. you ARE putting some small set of cells into a charge cycle. However, it will not even make a dent in the life time.
I do wonder though, if a capacitor would be a better idea for initial regen. Nearly all of the time, regen will be minor amount of Wh.
BTW, The M3 has a battery that was designed by Tesla and is considered to be Teslas. With over 3000 charge cycles, it still remains in the 80+% range. It is also considered the cheapest and best battery out there.
You are right. Thanx.
The pardon of Richard Nixon (Proclamation 4311 ) on September 8, 1974, by President Gerald Ford granted Nixon, Ford's predecessor as president, a full and unconditional pardon for any crimes he might have committed against the United States while president.
Hmm. If your writing style was different, I would say that you were actually Caffeinated bacon / Crimson Tsunami.
So many things wrong with what you wrote there.
Our 2013 model S has an 85 KWH pack. In there are 16 modules of 444 Panasonic 18650 cells EACH, or 7104 cells. Now, the way Tesla works is that it treats the modules as a round robin queue. IOW, it will first use A up, and then B, etc. By use it up, I mean down to around 20%. However, what happens when I gun it? Then it needs ALL OF THE MODULES. So, it will pull power from all, until I let up, then it will go back to A or AB or ABC. In addition, we charge our car up to around 80%. If we are taking a trip, or will be driving all day long, then yeah, we fill it up. All of this is done at home on a 120V/20A line (moving to a 240/50, but the 120 works fine).
Now, why do we do this? Because of the charge cycle life. These Panasonic DO have the ability to be charged 500x from empty to full. However, if you ONLY do partial refills, then you have 10s of 1000s of refills before it actually makes a noticeable impact. 500 cycles? But that’s (relatively) low! Yes. But what is not shown on the spec sheet is that when you partially charge and discharge, degradation of the battery capacity is reduced. Thus, you can do over 40 000 charge/discharge cycles when going from 30% to 70% only. Or over 35 000 charge/discharge cycles from 20% to 80%; 28 000 cycles from 10% to 90%; 15 000 cycles from 8% to 92%, 7500 cylces from 6% to 94%, and the capacity reduction goes faster and faster, finally reaching 500 cycles when recharging from 0% to 100%.
As such, by plugging in our car DAILY, and only taking it up to say 60% in the summer and 80% in the winter, we will have 35-40K charge cycles. COMBINE that with using a limited number of modules in a round robin, as you drive , and say you are looking at 2 charge / week each cell (or 104x a year) dividing into then your MS has 300+ years of driving on those batteries. If you assume that you do a monthly trip, then you are probably looking at 50+ years. I would say that is plenty.
Another killer to li-ion is heat. When you super charge, u generate heat and even though tesla does a decent job on thermal, Supercharging is still hard on the battery.
One guy I know, a realtor, has a 60KWH MS that he was using for taking customers around. daily. So, he would go to park meadows and charge. daily. up to trip level. Within 100K miles, his car WAS doing exactly as you think. His battery capacity had fallen a great deal. He was in the 80 %, which he should not be. BUT when tesla looked over the logs and found out how he was running his car, it became obvious that he was destroying it. Basically, we are TOLD to run it below trip level on a daily basis (so, charge in the daily basis range). We are also told to charge level 2 and under for most of your times. Do not keep it in trip range and do not use the super charger for your personal charger. BTW, multiple MSs have over 250K miles and their packs are above 90%.
As to range anxiety, my wife has had it twice in 3+ years.
The first time was when I took her up to Mount Evans in the car. When we got up top, we had less than 90 miles and home was over 90. She was nervous about that, until I told her that she was not to use the brakes, and just use regen. When we down to the front range, we were at 120 miles left. She no longer gets anxious about mountain driving, esp since there are loads of chargers along the way now.
Another time, she had to make multiple trips in a day. This was about a month ago, when the new software update came out. She was not paying attention and apparently, it did not have the bells/whistles turned back on. When she looked she had 20 miles left and about 20-25 miles to go. IOW, driving home was iffy. So, I talked her into stopping at a walgreens (she had something like 2-3 miles showing when she pulled in), we charged for an hour and t
America has a number of nasty state prisons and a few wicked federal prisons. However, trump will never see those. He would almost certainly be in our nicest prison. He is a traitor, BUT, the fact is, that he is a sitting president.
Yes, the president can pardon himself, but for what? Only past deeds. You have to have been convicted. The pardon power of the President applies only to convictions under federal law.[28] Additionally, the power extends to military court-martial cases, as well as convictions in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia.[28]
This was NOT brought on because the GOP went after Clinton (either of them).
It was brought on because Trump's ppl were working with Russians to win the election by illegal means. He was caught by the intelligence community and caught them talking to Russians and Chinese trying to make deals.
Was it illegal/criminal that the intelligence community was listening in, as some like to claim? NO, because they were taping russian/chinese SPIES.
This was actually started under Clinton and was to happen in 2001. But W postponed it until 2016. Oddly, had this happened in the 00s, most coal plants would have elected to clean up. It was the fact that nat. Gas was so cheap, that caused american coal plants to replace most of the dirtiest ones. Many of the ones closed will stay closed, BUT, it is probable that EVs are going to cause a number of these to reopen. Hopefully, trump pushes nuke SMR fast.
U can not impeach for this ( though he is fucking insane ). However, when mueller is done, I have no doubt that trump, most of his family, pence, and most of his admin, will go down for violations of Logan's act combined with many other indictments. But, technically, this is legal.
The Chinese can and do a LOT of damage to you. U just do not realize it.
Don't kid yourself. I have deal with 2 chinese spies. Oddly, one of them grew up in Taiwan. The fact is, that most Chinese HATE their gov but love their nation and ppl (not much different than here). As such, they will gladly knock their gov, BUT, once they see fellow country men, coming under attack, they will defend them.
a paycheck? No.
I worked with the intelligence community and am aware of what has happened long ago, and still hear things today.
Any westerner believing that Huawei is a none-threat is an idiot.