It sounds like you are an American who spends time in Japan. What is the new admin shaping up to be like? I have had my personal life in an uproar for the last 5 years, so have not been following international gov as much (though I do follow China somewhat closely). I keep wondering if they will join into the coming Asian fortress.
We will skip the BS about citation.
How does being defensive keep you open to an attack by US? Iraq was built to be first strike, not defensive. Defensive means that you repel an attacker. First strike means that you are the attacker. America is built around defense, not attack. That is why it takes us so long to stage anything. For example, the world KNEW that we were going into Kuwait. They knew we were going into Afghanistan. They knew we were going into Iraq. Nothing about America is geared for a surprise attack except on small operations. We are not capable of doing a surprise first strike attack on China and take them out. They would hit us back with many of their now nearly 1000 warheads.
kind of funny that you mention the docs. My wife is Indian and I was talking with the in-law. Dad suggested exactly what you did, but the discussion was that the Indian Med schools have a long way to go to becoming like the west. Basically, the students still need about another year or so of school. What I found interesting is that mom said that we should NOT allow them in because she was worried about taking away from India. From where I sit, if they can pass a test, and want citizenship, I see no reason why they should not be allowed. Sadly, AMA seems more and more like a political group, then the professional group they used to be.
But yeah, we have FAR too many exclusions. It would be nice to allow accounting and legal services to be exported. I think that right away we would see politicians require FAIR free trade.
First, this is a Japanese idea and we covered it here already. Second, this is a waste. They are trying to combine heating and power to increase overall efficiency. Cool. Except that Germany does not have much in way of natural gas so imports it. Mostly from Russia who has already shown that they will use it as a weapon. Instead, they should be pushing the use of geo-thermal heat pumps. Or if in town, then do a steam exchange (Germany has high enough density in most of their towns to make it worthwhile). Once they move to a heat pump, their hvac can be used for AC as well and has much higher efficiency. From that point, they can focus on a variety of power generation; Wind, Solar PV/Thermal, Geo-thermal; Nukes; even natural gas backing up solar thermal or geo-thermal (increased efficiency during day to generate more power).
Once they add these expensive units, ppl will NOT want to change until the price of their natural gas goes up. That is the mistake that America has. We typically install Natural Gas/AC which together is about 6-10K. Nobody wants to put out 10K again.
And see this instead. Lieber/press are way wrong. Not just on assumptions, but on facts. Lieber's argument is that while the number of LV and warheads have dropped dramatically, their capabilities have been improved. He also claims that subsonic stealth bombers are a first strike nuclear system. Yet, these are never likely to deliver nukes. They are used in conventional warfare for the first strike of enemies who do not have the capabilities to see it. Russia can track the B2 and we have known that since before the break-up.
In the end, the 2 ONLY measures against a weakened Russia. They made the assumption that many of Russa's systems are gone, which we know to not be the case. Russia is not a first strike threat to us or we to them. Even now, Obama is working with Russia on a new set of warhead and LV drops. That shows that we are about not having Nuclear first strike. and disproves your premise as well (which is several years old and ignores the current actions).
The real issue should be us looking at China. It is possible that Russia would join forces with China, but I doubt it.
Personally, I want to see MAD remain. The absolute WORST thing that can happen is for the west OR russia to drop to too few nukes. That would allow another country like China to think of winning a nuclear war with their neutron bombs. When looking at China's emphasis (remove our communications, remove our ppl but leave the equipment, etc), it should be obvious where first strike is sought and not sought.
Many nations do not have minimum wages. Others like China ignore all the labor conditions. So, if we say that you must have a CERTAIN LABOR CONDITION that is enforced (such as nobody under age 14 working, no forced prison labor, no slave labor, etc) and you say that minimum is say 1/10 or even 1/5 of our nation (or some other trigger), then you get improved lots for all. In the end, we want money to go to MANY ppl, not just a corrupt gov and few corrupt ppl. In addition, we want free trade with nations. It benefits all, if done fairly.
My understanding is that you are wrong. China may have its manufacturing in a hand full of cities (I understood about 1-2 dozen), but their military capabilities are spread ALL OVER. And I do mean all over. They are more spread out than America, Russia, or even EU is. They have a number of sites that are hoping are quietly producing new weaponry. No doubt we do not know them all and they are counting on it. America has taken a lot of heat for having used the bomb in a war (that we did not start or even provoke), but America has never put itself or its adversaries in a position to have to use it (hence the cold war). China is working towards a hot war using a number of weapons that they are not allowed to have (space based weapons) and others that they are not claiming (neutron bombs are now known to be on a production line; hard to say how many will be created; hopefully, between NSA/CIA/DOD as well as Russia's intel, we will find out )
Well, in regards to Germany's WWII performance compared to the United States, you can take a lot of ground when you use deception and modern hardware against a foe. Amazing. You say that China is basically not a threat, yet, you acknowledge that deception and modern hardware works wonders. Lets see; How modern is China's military? Most is not. OTH, they are working hard on their nuke and space forces to modernize them. And they are building neutrons as well as launchers (mobile land, fixed land, aircraft, and sub) at a rate never seen. Hmmmm. Not a threat?
BTW, 1956 has it right. Germany invaded to cause WWI and yes, they were HORRIBLE. As in quick and fast. Germany has had many campaigns over the milliniums. Obviously, Russia, Britain, France, Italy (rome), Nederlands, Spain, Portugal, etc have had their fair number of military mights as told by the large number of colonies that they all had. Limp-dicked indeed.
But I think that many ppl agree with you assesment of CHina. Far too many are hoping that it is not true, but too much evidence that says otherwise.
China obviously intends to go nuclear. Their current generation of warheads that they are building are neutrons, not normal hydrogen bombs. The have a new ICBM that they have been trying to keep quiet; the DF-41. It will (does?) carry 10 MIRV and will be both vehicle and sub launched. They currently have 10 boomers with apparently more in the works, but are trying hard to hide them. That is why they built their new island which is a sub base and why they are fighting against the west monitoring even the edge of their 200 mile border. They do not want the rest of the world to know what is coming. Finally, they have been working towards taking out sats with simple anti-sat tech, but have been quietly working on lasers. The lasers are expected to be part of their many new manned space stations.
Worse of all, their focus is on first strike, not defensive. When USSR and the west were in a cold war, neither side was focused on first strike, but strictly on Defensive. reagan did few things right, but he did have it right about dealing with USSR (and vice-versa); Trust, but verify. In doing that, it allows both sides to build up common ground. China is not interested in that. They are strictly gearing up for a nuclear war against the west. And we almost appear to be helping them by not holding CHina to 2 way trade and free money exchange. Add to that the insane invasion/occupation that the neo-cons did of Iraq, while ignoring the real issue of AQ (which could and should have been solved in the first year or two). Unless we change our way, China will soon feel that they can win a nuclear war. I spent my childhood being under desks, with my father ready to fly fatmen into the middle of Russia, and later, my young adulthood researching the USSR's biological weapons as well as working on defenses against them (they had some pretty "interesting" items). Back in the 60's, I was concerned esp. when my dad was gone for a week in late oct. 1962 (found out later that he was on end of runway ready and fueled to go). But it was obvious by mid/late 70's, that USSR was going to go under. Now, I look at CHina and KNOW that they are gearing up to do what all of us in the 60's did not want. The next decade will be interesting. Hopefully, this does not come to be.
So your analogy is lacking in many ways. We can refine the metals here and China needs them for their own growing demand.
Sadly, your facts and analogy are far far worse. China has more then enough REMs. In POF, if they were to supply 100% of the worlds demand, including the coming increases, they would have more than enough for over 100 years.But you really screw up. Lets assume that this really is about them. If so, then a simple stockpile would guarantee that they had plenty for the future. It would be like us (and western EU) who have large stockpiles of Oil, Natural Gas, and gasoline. We have plenty in the ground. We just make sure that we have enough with easy access in case of major disruptions.
So, that is not the reason. So, lets assume that it is about profits. If so, then they would LIMIT the sale. Yet, they are instead saying that they will not release a number of them after having dumped for the last 8 years. So, THAT is NOT THE REASON.
OTH, if they stop the flow, then it means that they are looking to control other countries. Currently, they have the stockpiles as well as the mine resources. The fact that they have ran around for the last 4 years trying (with some success) to buy up foreign mines including in western nations, says that this is PURELY ABOUT CONTROL and NOT ABOUT BUSINESS. When you try to starve ppl from needed items, then you are trying to win a war without firing a shot.
America has been extending the hand. That is exactly why China has MFN and is in the WTO even though they have not met the conditions for either. We are in a one-sided cold war that is headed towards a bad outcome. The reason is because reagan and W ran monster deficts, W allowed china to skip their legal obligations, and now china is feeling that if they keep it up that they can win a hot nuclear war.
I said that exceptions can be made for certain goods (military usage; etc). What services would you want excepted? Another way would be to allow exceptions up to a certain percentage.
Personally, I want as much free trade as possible. BUT that only works when it is 2 way and it is FREE (as in free trade money to allow economies to adjust). When either and certainly both conditions are gone, then the concept is screwed.
Not really. You are confusing facts with your opinions.
Even EU is getting upset about CHina. France, Germany, and UK have pushed China to remove their import restrictions that they were suppose to remove nearly 7 years ago (china now claims that they need another decade or two). In addition, China was suppose to free their money 7 years ago and have not. Nearly all countries are pushing for them to free it, but they are saying that it is free enough. Restricting imports from a nation that has fixed the game does not make sense. But the west DOES need to keep nations from competing unfairly, which is what China is doing.
The west restricts MILITARY use tech, while China is restricting an element to which they have control. Nobody in the west restricts access to elements/mineral. They are on the market for all. We DO restrict others from OWNING AND CONTROLLING RESOURCES WITHIN OUR BORDERS WHEN THERE ARE LIMITED OPTIONS. For example, America recently told China that they could not buy several mines (including a REM mine). The reason is that it was obvious 2 years ago that China is trying to create a number of monopolies.
Well, they COULD buy pollution controls for all their coal plants, mines, etc. They do not want that. Instead, they want us to GIVE IT TO THEM. Seriously, if they really wanted to use that money to buy goods and join the world trade, they would buy these controls. But instead they would rather not buy it and will only buy things that can deny the west later. That alone should speak about China's gov. intentions. What amazes me is that so many disregard it. They pollute their ppl horribly and say that it is because the west will not GIVE THEM the tech. Yet, they are sitting on close to 4 TRILLION IN DOLLARS that would enable them to quit polluting with mercury, SO2s, etc. Heck, 1 trillion alone would do it. And it would revive the world economy.
China is in a cold war with us and is winning because the west does not want another one.
Actually, there are not known "vast" rare earth sources. There are some known locations of these sources. Problem is that several of these, so far, appear to be mostly in China. That is why they are limiting these. It is not because they fear running out. It is that they appear to be acquiring total control over several of them (the ones that they will not allow to be exported). I hope to god that we are bright enough to prospect for a lot more of these, including in space. We need to send a number of vasmir/nuke powered sats into the asteroid belt and start locating different minerals. At the same time, the west needs to start a massive program of locating any and all elements/minerals that are limited to various nations that China wants to control. Otherwise, China's cold war is going to turn hot.
That one may be, but they have many more coming. Along with the multitude of nukes that they are building and the 1-2 new boomers each year. Personally, I do not mind a dozen boomers and say 500 nukes. Problem is that they are positioning themselves for a first strike, not a defensive position. My understanding is that all the new warheads are neutrons, not regular hydrogen bombs. When I see that, it makes me nervous that Obama and others are talking about dropping our nukes. If we have enough, we guarantee MAD, which guarantees no first strike. OTH, if somebody thinks that a nuke war is winnable, then it is possible for countries to be ran by fools/idiots (google GWB or Mao Zedong) who would then go for it.
is EXACTLY what has gotten us to where we are. China is in a cold war with us and it needs to be addressed.
I TRUST that you are kidding about tariffs, yes? They do not work. The issue is that China was given MFN and into WTO by promising to open their borders and to free their money. All good. Problem is that China has not LIVED up to their word. They still have barriers up and most of all, the money is not traded freely. It is in a "basket" that is controlled by their gov. In addition, they allow pollution (co2 and other ) to be emitted in large amounts to give an even larger boost to low costs. Our energy bill is going to be a disaster and will encourage China,India,Mexico, etc to pollute more to take more jobs.
So, here is my solution:
Pollution is a serious issue, but so are economic issues. Kill the new energy bill before it gets implemented. Instead put in a TRUE cap/tax. We need to put in a cap on our CO2, and then put in a tax on ALL GOODS (local and imported). It should be based on the pollution that comes from the areas that the good was made from. That means that each country has a sliding scale based on CO2, and ideally the pollutions such as SO2, Mercury, etc. To implement this all at once would hurt the world. Instead, create a max of say 2-3% and than slowly raise that several percent each year. That gives each nation the opportunity to change (including America).
Drop the MFN for all nations. Nearly all the countries that are part of that were for political reasons only. That needs to be stopped. Instead, create a new MFN and set up the conditions in which ALL NATIONS that meet it would get it. It should be a limited set of conditions.
freely traded money (EUdollar is freely traded; Yuens -> dollar is fixed).
Free trade. Not sure exactly HOW free, but most if not all goods should be allowed to move back and forth. Exceptions should be made for certain goods. For example, NAFTA was overall good. It has helped Mexico and Canada.
A minimum standard of an environmental condition. That would prevent countries from subsidizing the goods by degrading the world. Personally, I would prefer Canada as minimum. MUCH cleaner than most. We would probably just use ours though.
A minimum wage and labor condition.
A minimum education condition (such as requiring all children in school up to a certain age), etc.
If we do the above, then there will be no real need for free trade acts. What is really needed is to make certain that we avoid exceptions. There are a number of countries that we allow to have one-way trade with us and do little to nothing to help those countries.
If the above is done by the west, it would bring up conditions all over the world. EU has talked about doing Free Trade agreements with Latin America, but they want to use it to push better conditions for the citizens. I have to say that it is not a bad idea, but I think the above is even better.
The ones in there are the ones that China is limiting to increase the price. The ones that we want (that china has not prevented from being sold), are NOT in our landfills. They are in fairly new use on permanent magnet motors as well as high-end circuitry's. In addition, these require MINUTE amounts on these (the world uses several tons a year on a few of these, but are hard to obtain).
China is now refusing to export a number of rare earth elements. These are ones that are currently expensive to get elsewhere. In addition, they HAVE put caps on other ones. But that is not the real problem.
The real issue is that they are running around BUYING UP all the mines in the free world. Basically, they are trying hard to make a monopoly of this. The place to watch is Australia, Canada, and America. America has the largest active RE mines and China made a bid for these last year(US gov said no). They currently are trying to buy 2 start-up mines in Australia. Finally, IIRC, they DID buy a Canadian producer (though I do not recall where mines were located).
The other day I commented about how we should be mining space, to which a fool responded that it was not practical. At that time, I pointed out that long-term countries would try to limit access to various elements/minerals. Sure enough, that day was when I found out about China thinking of limiting REM. The problem is that when items are taken off the market, it means that you limit countries capabilities. That tends to make wars happen. Imagine if another GWB gets into office in say about 2 years and REM is expensive to the west. GWB would go to war over this because CHina is building up their military and will want to stop it before they get too strong. Keep in mind that China is positioning themselves for a first strike, not for a defensive position. If we want to avoid stupid wars, we MUST get into space and locate new elements/minerals esp. REMs. They are the foundation of militaries as well as electrical systems. All of our future motors and many of the advanced electronic boards depend on these.
China is not about playing fair. They are very much in a cold war with the west, whether we like it or now. If we want to prevent a hot war, we will have to prevent them from limiting our access to resources (either by war or by finding new cheap mines) and will have to bring back manufacturing.
That is not entirely accurate either. An old roommate of mine, Yosuke explained that the gov. actually funds lots of projects that are dual use. His dad was high up in MITI, so he had some good knowledge. They simply fund it from the civilian side of things. But in general, they preferred items that were dual use. Partially for their own military needs, but also because they wanted to work closely with America (and sell it to us). The admin would have quietly looked at this for military purposes.
As to the new admin, I have ZERO clue about them. It will be interesting to see If they jump into the coming Asian fortress lock, stock, and barrel. If they do, and slowly walk away from the west, they will likely have to increase their own military. America was a known and that we would not interfere in their in politics (after WWII, that is) or their culture. More importantly, we were their to protect their country. Not sure that we will do the same now.
It speaks heavily about their needs. Japan is very concerned about lack of youth. They are currently regressing in terms of population size (of Japanese; illegal aliens are an issue for them). OTH, America has spent TONS of money on it for moving things. Simply the last investment is via DOD contractors. But, there has been active research into this for several decades. And up until recent times, it was concerned mostly with hazardous waste and/or moving large material.
but I hear that GE and Hitachi are in some sort of partnership to try to get approval for, and commercialize, small-scale reactors based on the IFR designs. Google for GEH PRISM design. Small (400MW to ~1GW) size reactors, all based on the IFR that John Kerry got killed in 94. Thankfully, the issue of 20K year long "waste" issue combined with CO2 issue is pushing GE and Hitachi to build out in 2011.
Kind of funny. That killing of the IFR, combined with NASA underfunding over the last 8 years, really shows how much politicians lack in terms of foresight. I have seen how the neo-cons fucked over NASA and read the recent reports about how NASA is likely to be screwed further. America underwent a self destruction of the last 8 years. Sadly, I am not sure that we are on a new path.
Would you like to live near a Nuclear power plant? I lived about 20 miles away from Ft. St. Vrain. And about 30 from Zion. Had either been in my back yard( literally ), I do not think that I would have minded. In the end, it does not matter in America. There is plenty of space here to build these up to a mile away from cities, though I hate losing the efficiency.
What is really missing is that the blue prints were designs. During production, the builders found that the BPs would not work on many items. So, they would talk to the other part builders and make changes. And those changes were NOT incorporated back into the blue prints. That is similar to the Boeing 747. The old blue prints could never be used to build the crafts. The guys on the line would make parts slightly different from the specs. Thankfully, Boeing has since worked to get that info back into Catia (it was a multi-year project) and all of their future work requires that all info remain inside of Catia. What is interesting is that the 787's current timeline is a DIRECT effect of trying to force a waterfall effect on 787, when all previous jets were essentially iterative.
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It sounds like you are an American who spends time in Japan. What is the new admin shaping up to be like? I have had my personal life in an uproar for the last 5 years, so have not been following international gov as much (though I do follow China somewhat closely). I keep wondering if they will join into the coming Asian fortress.
We will skip the BS about citation.
How does being defensive keep you open to an attack by US? Iraq was built to be first strike, not defensive. Defensive means that you repel an attacker. First strike means that you are the attacker. America is built around defense, not attack. That is why it takes us so long to stage anything. For example, the world KNEW that we were going into Kuwait. They knew we were going into Afghanistan. They knew we were going into Iraq. Nothing about America is geared for a surprise attack except on small operations. We are not capable of doing a surprise first strike attack on China and take them out. They would hit us back with many of their now nearly 1000 warheads.
kind of funny that you mention the docs. My wife is Indian and I was talking with the in-law. Dad suggested exactly what you did, but the discussion was that the Indian Med schools have a long way to go to becoming like the west. Basically, the students still need about another year or so of school. What I found interesting is that mom said that we should NOT allow them in because she was worried about taking away from India. From where I sit, if they can pass a test, and want citizenship, I see no reason why they should not be allowed. Sadly, AMA seems more and more like a political group, then the professional group they used to be.
But yeah, we have FAR too many exclusions. It would be nice to allow accounting and legal services to be exported. I think that right away we would see politicians require FAIR free trade.
First, this is a Japanese idea and we covered it here already. Second, this is a waste. They are trying to combine heating and power to increase overall efficiency. Cool. Except that Germany does not have much in way of natural gas so imports it. Mostly from Russia who has already shown that they will use it as a weapon. Instead, they should be pushing the use of geo-thermal heat pumps. Or if in town, then do a steam exchange (Germany has high enough density in most of their towns to make it worthwhile). Once they move to a heat pump, their hvac can be used for AC as well and has much higher efficiency. From that point, they can focus on a variety of power generation; Wind, Solar PV/Thermal, Geo-thermal; Nukes; even natural gas backing up solar thermal or geo-thermal (increased efficiency during day to generate more power).
Once they add these expensive units, ppl will NOT want to change until the price of their natural gas goes up. That is the mistake that America has. We typically install Natural Gas/AC which together is about 6-10K. Nobody wants to put out 10K again.
And see this instead. Lieber/press are way wrong. Not just on assumptions, but on facts. Lieber's argument is that while the number of LV and warheads have dropped dramatically, their capabilities have been improved. He also claims that subsonic stealth bombers are a first strike nuclear system. Yet, these are never likely to deliver nukes. They are used in conventional warfare for the first strike of enemies who do not have the capabilities to see it. Russia can track the B2 and we have known that since before the break-up. In the end, the 2 ONLY measures against a weakened Russia. They made the assumption that many of Russa's systems are gone, which we know to not be the case. Russia is not a first strike threat to us or we to them. Even now, Obama is working with Russia on a new set of warhead and LV drops. That shows that we are about not having Nuclear first strike. and disproves your premise as well (which is several years old and ignores the current actions).
The real issue should be us looking at China. It is possible that Russia would join forces with China, but I doubt it.
Personally, I want to see MAD remain. The absolute WORST thing that can happen is for the west OR russia to drop to too few nukes. That would allow another country like China to think of winning a nuclear war with their neutron bombs. When looking at China's emphasis (remove our communications, remove our ppl but leave the equipment, etc), it should be obvious where first strike is sought and not sought.
Many nations do not have minimum wages. Others like China ignore all the labor conditions. So, if we say that you must have a CERTAIN LABOR CONDITION that is enforced (such as nobody under age 14 working, no forced prison labor, no slave labor, etc) and you say that minimum is say 1/10 or even 1/5 of our nation (or some other trigger), then you get improved lots for all. In the end, we want money to go to MANY ppl, not just a corrupt gov and few corrupt ppl. In addition, we want free trade with nations. It benefits all, if done fairly.
My understanding is that you are wrong. China may have its manufacturing in a hand full of cities (I understood about 1-2 dozen), but their military capabilities are spread ALL OVER. And I do mean all over. They are more spread out than America, Russia, or even EU is. They have a number of sites that are hoping are quietly producing new weaponry. No doubt we do not know them all and they are counting on it. America has taken a lot of heat for having used the bomb in a war (that we did not start or even provoke), but America has never put itself or its adversaries in a position to have to use it (hence the cold war). China is working towards a hot war using a number of weapons that they are not allowed to have (space based weapons) and others that they are not claiming (neutron bombs are now known to be on a production line; hard to say how many will be created; hopefully, between NSA/CIA/DOD as well as Russia's intel, we will find out )
Well, in regards to Germany's WWII performance compared to the United States, you can take a lot of ground when you use deception and modern hardware against a foe.
Amazing. You say that China is basically not a threat, yet, you acknowledge that deception and modern hardware works wonders. Lets see; How modern is China's military? Most is not. OTH, they are working hard on their nuke and space forces to modernize them. And they are building neutrons as well as launchers (mobile land, fixed land, aircraft, and sub) at a rate never seen. Hmmmm. Not a threat?
BTW, 1956 has it right. Germany invaded to cause WWI and yes, they were HORRIBLE. As in quick and fast. Germany has had many campaigns over the milliniums. Obviously, Russia, Britain, France, Italy (rome), Nederlands, Spain, Portugal, etc have had their fair number of military mights as told by the large number of colonies that they all had. Limp-dicked indeed.
But I think that many ppl agree with you assesment of CHina. Far too many are hoping that it is not true, but too much evidence that says otherwise.
China obviously intends to go nuclear. Their current generation of warheads that they are building are neutrons, not normal hydrogen bombs. The have a new ICBM that they have been trying to keep quiet; the DF-41. It will (does?) carry 10 MIRV and will be both vehicle and sub launched. They currently have 10 boomers with apparently more in the works, but are trying hard to hide them. That is why they built their new island which is a sub base and why they are fighting against the west monitoring even the edge of their 200 mile border. They do not want the rest of the world to know what is coming. Finally, they have been working towards taking out sats with simple anti-sat tech, but have been quietly working on lasers. The lasers are expected to be part of their many new manned space stations.
Worse of all, their focus is on first strike, not defensive. When USSR and the west were in a cold war, neither side was focused on first strike, but strictly on Defensive. reagan did few things right, but he did have it right about dealing with USSR (and vice-versa); Trust, but verify. In doing that, it allows both sides to build up common ground. China is not interested in that. They are strictly gearing up for a nuclear war against the west. And we almost appear to be helping them by not holding CHina to 2 way trade and free money exchange. Add to that the insane invasion/occupation that the neo-cons did of Iraq, while ignoring the real issue of AQ (which could and should have been solved in the first year or two). Unless we change our way, China will soon feel that they can win a nuclear war. I spent my childhood being under desks, with my father ready to fly fatmen into the middle of Russia, and later, my young adulthood researching the USSR's biological weapons as well as working on defenses against them (they had some pretty "interesting" items). Back in the 60's, I was concerned esp. when my dad was gone for a week in late oct. 1962 (found out later that he was on end of runway ready and fueled to go). But it was obvious by mid/late 70's, that USSR was going to go under. Now, I look at CHina and KNOW that they are gearing up to do what all of us in the 60's did not want. The next decade will be interesting. Hopefully, this does not come to be.
So your analogy is lacking in many ways. We can refine the metals here and China needs them for their own growing demand.
Sadly, your facts and analogy are far far worse. China has more then enough REMs. In POF, if they were to supply 100% of the worlds demand, including the coming increases, they would have more than enough for over 100 years.But you really screw up. Lets assume that this really is about them. If so, then a simple stockpile would guarantee that they had plenty for the future. It would be like us (and western EU) who have large stockpiles of Oil, Natural Gas, and gasoline. We have plenty in the ground. We just make sure that we have enough with easy access in case of major disruptions.
So, that is not the reason. So, lets assume that it is about profits. If so, then they would LIMIT the sale. Yet, they are instead saying that they will not release a number of them after having dumped for the last 8 years. So, THAT is NOT THE REASON.
OTH, if they stop the flow, then it means that they are looking to control other countries. Currently, they have the stockpiles as well as the mine resources. The fact that they have ran around for the last 4 years trying (with some success) to buy up foreign mines including in western nations, says that this is PURELY ABOUT CONTROL and NOT ABOUT BUSINESS. When you try to starve ppl from needed items, then you are trying to win a war without firing a shot.
America has been extending the hand. That is exactly why China has MFN and is in the WTO even though they have not met the conditions for either. We are in a one-sided cold war that is headed towards a bad outcome. The reason is because reagan and W ran monster deficts, W allowed china to skip their legal obligations, and now china is feeling that if they keep it up that they can win a hot nuclear war.
I said that exceptions can be made for certain goods (military usage; etc). What services would you want excepted? Another way would be to allow exceptions up to a certain percentage.
Personally, I want as much free trade as possible. BUT that only works when it is 2 way and it is FREE (as in free trade money to allow economies to adjust). When either and certainly both conditions are gone, then the concept is screwed.
Not really. You are confusing facts with your opinions.
Even EU is getting upset about CHina. France, Germany, and UK have pushed China to remove their import restrictions that they were suppose to remove nearly 7 years ago (china now claims that they need another decade or two). In addition, China was suppose to free their money 7 years ago and have not. Nearly all countries are pushing for them to free it, but they are saying that it is free enough. Restricting imports from a nation that has fixed the game does not make sense. But the west DOES need to keep nations from competing unfairly, which is what China is doing.
The west restricts MILITARY use tech, while China is restricting an element to which they have control. Nobody in the west restricts access to elements/mineral. They are on the market for all. We DO restrict others from OWNING AND CONTROLLING RESOURCES WITHIN OUR BORDERS WHEN THERE ARE LIMITED OPTIONS. For example, America recently told China that they could not buy several mines (including a REM mine). The reason is that it was obvious 2 years ago that China is trying to create a number of monopolies.
Well, they COULD buy pollution controls for all their coal plants, mines, etc. They do not want that. Instead, they want us to GIVE IT TO THEM. Seriously, if they really wanted to use that money to buy goods and join the world trade, they would buy these controls. But instead they would rather not buy it and will only buy things that can deny the west later. That alone should speak about China's gov. intentions. What amazes me is that so many disregard it. They pollute their ppl horribly and say that it is because the west will not GIVE THEM the tech. Yet, they are sitting on close to 4 TRILLION IN DOLLARS that would enable them to quit polluting with mercury, SO2s, etc. Heck, 1 trillion alone would do it. And it would revive the world economy.
China is in a cold war with us and is winning because the west does not want another one.
Actually, there are not known "vast" rare earth sources. There are some known locations of these sources. Problem is that several of these, so far, appear to be mostly in China. That is why they are limiting these. It is not because they fear running out. It is that they appear to be acquiring total control over several of them (the ones that they will not allow to be exported). I hope to god that we are bright enough to prospect for a lot more of these, including in space. We need to send a number of vasmir/nuke powered sats into the asteroid belt and start locating different minerals. At the same time, the west needs to start a massive program of locating any and all elements/minerals that are limited to various nations that China wants to control. Otherwise, China's cold war is going to turn hot.
That one may be, but they have many more coming. Along with the multitude of nukes that they are building and the 1-2 new boomers each year. Personally, I do not mind a dozen boomers and say 500 nukes. Problem is that they are positioning themselves for a first strike, not a defensive position. My understanding is that all the new warheads are neutrons, not regular hydrogen bombs. When I see that, it makes me nervous that Obama and others are talking about dropping our nukes. If we have enough, we guarantee MAD, which guarantees no first strike. OTH, if somebody thinks that a nuke war is winnable, then it is possible for countries to be ran by fools/idiots (google GWB or Mao Zedong) who would then go for it.
I TRUST that you are kidding about tariffs, yes? They do not work. The issue is that China was given MFN and into WTO by promising to open their borders and to free their money. All good. Problem is that China has not LIVED up to their word. They still have barriers up and most of all, the money is not traded freely. It is in a "basket" that is controlled by their gov. In addition, they allow pollution (co2 and other ) to be emitted in large amounts to give an even larger boost to low costs. Our energy bill is going to be a disaster and will encourage China,India,Mexico, etc to pollute more to take more jobs.
So, here is my solution:
If we do the above, then there will be no real need for free trade acts. What is really needed is to make certain that we avoid exceptions. There are a number of countries that we allow to have one-way trade with us and do little to nothing to help those countries.
If the above is done by the west, it would bring up conditions all over the world. EU has talked about doing Free Trade agreements with Latin America, but they want to use it to push better conditions for the citizens. I have to say that it is not a bad idea, but I think the above is even better.
Because W wanted support and funding for his Iraqi invasion and occupation. Basically W traded our future for his oil.
The ones in there are the ones that China is limiting to increase the price. The ones that we want (that china has not prevented from being sold), are NOT in our landfills. They are in fairly new use on permanent magnet motors as well as high-end circuitry's. In addition, these require MINUTE amounts on these (the world uses several tons a year on a few of these, but are hard to obtain).
China is now refusing to export a number of rare earth elements. These are ones that are currently expensive to get elsewhere. In addition, they HAVE put caps on other ones. But that is not the real problem.
The real issue is that they are running around BUYING UP all the mines in the free world. Basically, they are trying hard to make a monopoly of this. The place to watch is Australia, Canada, and America. America has the largest active RE mines and China made a bid for these last year(US gov said no). They currently are trying to buy 2 start-up mines in Australia. Finally, IIRC, they DID buy a Canadian producer (though I do not recall where mines were located).
The other day I commented about how we should be mining space, to which a fool responded that it was not practical. At that time, I pointed out that long-term countries would try to limit access to various elements/minerals. Sure enough, that day was when I found out about China thinking of limiting REM. The problem is that when items are taken off the market, it means that you limit countries capabilities. That tends to make wars happen. Imagine if another GWB gets into office in say about 2 years and REM is expensive to the west. GWB would go to war over this because CHina is building up their military and will want to stop it before they get too strong. Keep in mind that China is positioning themselves for a first strike, not for a defensive position. If we want to avoid stupid wars, we MUST get into space and locate new elements/minerals esp. REMs. They are the foundation of militaries as well as electrical systems. All of our future motors and many of the advanced electronic boards depend on these.
China is not about playing fair. They are very much in a cold war with the west, whether we like it or now. If we want to prevent a hot war, we will have to prevent them from limiting our access to resources (either by war or by finding new cheap mines) and will have to bring back manufacturing.
That is not entirely accurate either. An old roommate of mine, Yosuke explained that the gov. actually funds lots of projects that are dual use. His dad was high up in MITI, so he had some good knowledge. They simply fund it from the civilian side of things. But in general, they preferred items that were dual use. Partially for their own military needs, but also because they wanted to work closely with America (and sell it to us). The admin would have quietly looked at this for military purposes.
As to the new admin, I have ZERO clue about them. It will be interesting to see If they jump into the coming Asian fortress lock, stock, and barrel. If they do, and slowly walk away from the west, they will likely have to increase their own military. America was a known and that we would not interfere in their in politics (after WWII, that is) or their culture. More importantly, we were their to protect their country. Not sure that we will do the same now.
It speaks heavily about their needs. Japan is very concerned about lack of youth. They are currently regressing in terms of population size (of Japanese; illegal aliens are an issue for them). OTH, America has spent TONS of money on it for moving things. Simply the last investment is via DOD contractors. But, there has been active research into this for several decades. And up until recent times, it was concerned mostly with hazardous waste and/or moving large material.
Culture has NOTHING to do with this.
but I hear that GE and Hitachi are in some sort of partnership to try to get approval for, and commercialize, small-scale reactors based on the IFR designs.
Google for GEH PRISM design. Small (400MW to ~1GW) size reactors, all based on the IFR that John Kerry got killed in 94. Thankfully, the issue of 20K year long "waste" issue combined with CO2 issue is pushing GE and Hitachi to build out in 2011.
Kind of funny. That killing of the IFR, combined with NASA underfunding over the last 8 years, really shows how much politicians lack in terms of foresight. I have seen how the neo-cons fucked over NASA and read the recent reports about how NASA is likely to be screwed further. America underwent a self destruction of the last 8 years. Sadly, I am not sure that we are on a new path.
Time will tell.
Would you like to live near a Nuclear power plant?
I lived about 20 miles away from Ft. St. Vrain. And about 30 from Zion. Had either been in my back yard( literally ), I do not think that I would have minded. In the end, it does not matter in America. There is plenty of space here to build these up to a mile away from cities, though I hate losing the efficiency.
What is really missing is that the blue prints were designs. During production, the builders found that the BPs would not work on many items. So, they would talk to the other part builders and make changes. And those changes were NOT incorporated back into the blue prints. That is similar to the Boeing 747. The old blue prints could never be used to build the crafts. The guys on the line would make parts slightly different from the specs. Thankfully, Boeing has since worked to get that info back into Catia (it was a multi-year project) and all of their future work requires that all info remain inside of Catia. What is interesting is that the 787's current timeline is a DIRECT effect of trying to force a waterfall effect on 787, when all previous jets were essentially iterative.