They [Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer] are. But people like you are deniers. Big difference. Their opinions are based on their interpretation of the science. Your denialism, like most, is based on what suits your libertarian politics.
If it came from nowhere, that would seem a reasonable suspicion. But Nate Silver's reputation for accurately predicting elections and being the "moneyball" guy backs up the claim to be non-partisan and statistics based.
I've won a fair amount of money gambling based on Nate's political stats. Whilst I'm very politically biased, basing decisions based on the stats meant I was able to avoid my own biases. Sadly Nate's rise to fame means that there won't be much value to be had this way in future.
Scaling up to the size of even a niche player like BMW means ramping up production about 70x.
And Tesla is well placed for this. Their current factory is several times the area they are currently using. And their production line is mostly made from identical robots. So scaling production is mostly just a case of buying more robots. It looks more scalable to me than the traditional production lines, that whilst heavily mechanised, also use a lot more human workers.
I've seen videos of both the Tesla and Nissan Leaf production lines. There are quite a lot of such videos so I can't necessarily point you to the ones that I saw. But here's a shortish one from Wired that will give you the idea.
Then of course you'll have heard that they are in the process of creating the so called "gigafactory" for batteries, that will be bigger than all the worlds current capacity added together.
Tesla is not playing. They are perfectly executing a growth plan that's going to take them into the big league.
Scaling up to the size of even a niche player like BMW means ramping up production about 70x.
I certainly wouldn't call BMW niche. I've I stand by the side of the road I'll see them passing all the time. But then I live in the UK so that may be different from where you are.
My analysis could be flawed or naive, but it seems to me that a company like BMW should find it much simpler to squish an electric motor into their product while retaining quality than Tesla will find it to ramp production by such an amount while retaining quality.
Hell, BMW are making some nice dedicated EVs. They have a lower priced i3 that came out in Europe recently, and the i8 coming soon that's more in the Tesla Model S class.
I wasn't including BMW when I mentioned dinosaurs! I expect them to also be very successful with EVs. My thoughts were more with the car companies that do what you suggest - adapt existing ICE cars to have EV variants. Those will never be as good as purpose designed EVs.
MEPs are not only for election periods. They represent UK constituents throughout their term of office.
OK, so where are the other MEPs on Question Time? There are 72 of them, yet the only one that they seem to get on QT is Farage. And again, more often than ANY other panellist. Con, Lab and LibDem all have more MEPs, yet their MEPs don't get on QT.
Admit it, it doesn't make sense, and it's unbalanced.
Secondly, as I explained, UKIP chooses to have one strong personality representing their views on air. That is their prerogative.
No it's not. QT select guests. They don't go to a party and take whoever they are offered. It's not for UKIP to decide who gets offered a seat on the panel.
There are reasons that "1984"(sic) and "V for Vigilante"(sic) were set there
Yes. Because the UK has a disproportionately high number of a good writers, and both Eric Blair and Alan Moore live(d) there.
Note also that they don't actually *use* the CCTV's to fight crime. They use them for bureaucratic monitoring, such as insisting that people pay the tax for cars in London, or that they park correctly. They're not used for pickpocketing, luggage theft, or even prosecuting vandals.
They use the CCTV for all of those things. I think you've been reading too much Daily Mail.
(Those personal crimes are not considered "important enough" to justify checking the video records. Been there, done that.)
They tend to use the CCTV live. To guide cops to the places where these things are happening. Combing back through recordings is a different matter, with a different balance. It's a significant use of resources to comb through the video, and then the individuals are long gone from the scene of the crime, and are unlikely to be easily identified. It obviously won't be worth it for for petty crimes. But it is done for more serious crimes.
Not that I'm in favour of all the CCTV. But lying about the uses it's put to isn't helpful.
Work experience at the level of a 18-21 year old is going to be less important than a degree. Especially in the current economy. Flipping burgers, filing or bar work doesn't count for much.
Presuming that price is set by the market, they would have to maintain prices, which means giving up $7500 per vehicle.
Only if you define the market as "all cars". But it's not. People don't compare all cars and then just happen to end up with an EV. Not yet. People in the market for an EV are specifically looking for an EV. And any loss of subsidy would affect all EVs not just Tesla.
I've already accepted that losing the subsidy would lose some sales, as for a few people would pay $70,000 but not $77,500. But that window is not going to catch a huge proportion of their sales.
And I can demonstrate that. Tesla sells two models: The base Model S starts at US$69,900 with a 60 kWÂh battery pack up to US$79,900. Yet the $10,000 more expensive model is the more popular one.
But the fact is that Tesla has no viable business model without government help.
That's not a fact, that's your assumption, and it's a faulty one.
The instant battery technology can make these things viable to the mass market, they will have very strong competition.
Hopefully so. But so far Tesla have proved themselves to be the top EV company. It's hard to see that completely overturned to the point of bankruptcy by the dinosaurs running the traditional car companies.
There are people smarter than myself without degrees.
Sure. And in most cases they'd do better than they do with a degree.
There are morons who have master degrees who I had to let go because they are book smarts but can't do shit in the real world without the deer in the headlights look when independent analysis and goals are needed.
Sure, but they wouldn't be better had they not got a degree.
But in a down economy it means you get that internship or entry level job with the foot in that door. While HR ignores you unless you have many years of experience and letters of recommendation even for the most basic entry level jobs today.
Right, there comes a point at which your work experience becomes more important than the degree. But the point is you are at an advantage in getting that necessary experience if you start out with a degree. For people too young to have an outstanding working history, that HR door is solidly closed.
If it's hard right now for young people with degrees to get a worthwhile job, it's massively harder for young people without a degree.
You don't get it. The point is that the entire world didn't come together
If that was here point, then it would be doubly stupid to call it anomalous in the sense of the human psyche, as the only reason was that there wasn't a technology available to do so.
People's "world" used to be their own town or city, and 'social spaces" used to be real spaces. And the history of people congregating in one place within those worlds is enormous. From the greek theatre, through the roman games, to carnivals and festivals throughout the world.
Other stupid things:
"boydâ(TM)s day job is at Microsoft Research, where she helps make sure Microsoft doesnâ(TM)t miss the beat on privacy and social media trends."
Then she's a complete failure.
Also, what's with the insistence of spelling her name in lower case, even to the extent of using lower case at the start of a sentence, but only those sentences starting with her name? It's pure affectation. And its not the interviewer, you'll find that it's everywhere, even her Wiki page. She's a pretentious idiot.
All genuine degrees have value in getting a job. Some more than others, for sure. But put a candidate who has a degree up against an otherwise similar one who doesn't and the one with a degree has the advantage.
Not only the advantage of a line on their CV. But the practical advantage of the skills they've gained, and the character that has been built. These will help them with the job search and interview.
Of course if they are applying for a job very much below their level, the degree candidate may be rejected as "over qualified". But that just means they are applying for inappropriate jobs. Or perhaps more likely that they simply didn't interview well and it was an easy excuse for the employer.
Experience running and business and going bankrupt is going to count for far less, when subsequently seeking employment. And may even be a negative.
Right. Oil would still be profitable. But so would Teslas. As I said, at the price point of the Model S, $7,500 isn't a deal breaker. They'd use a few sales for sure, but not the majority. They'd certainly not lose as many sales as Exxon would without subsidy.
Remember that at present Tesla is a niche car. 6,900 cars in a quarter. They are still serving the wealthy; they haven't got a product for the mass market yet.
Their next Model X is going for a lower priced market, but with features like falcon wing doors, it's obviously still not aimed at the mass market.
I am not a UKIP supporter. But they do have more MEPs than the Greens.
Which would only apply during a European election period. Ordinarily the UK MPs are more significant to the UK people.
And they also have one really recognisable face,
Chicken and egg. You can't say he's overly represented on the media because he has a really recognisable face. The only reason it's recognisable is that he's had more media coverage than his position warrants.
so you are going to see him more than you see an average MP from other parties.
I didn't say he was seen more than average MPs. I said that since 2009, he's had more appearances on Question Time than ANYONE. And that's obviously completely uncalled for. He comes from a minority party with no MPs.
I thought J2ME was crazy and stupid over ten years ago, but it worked.
It worked badly. On devices that had both J2ME and native apps, you could easily see the difference. And Javascript is going to be much slower than Java.
Avoiding additional runtimes and APIs is the entire point.
And why would that be a point? What do they cost users or third party developers? The Cocoa Touch API on iOS and Dalvik on Android don't have any drawbacks for being there. They only make developing advanced apps more possible and easier.
It makes it easier and cheaper for the Firefox team to only supply a browser and no other API. But that does nothing to make the platform more attractive fr users. And with no unique selling points, and starting from zero market share, it's a guaranteed failure.
The Apple connector adds complexity to the design that increases cost and failure rate.
Cost, maybe. Failure rate, no chance. MicroUSB is well known for breaking; there's no such reputation for Lightning. Just looking at the two and you can see Lightning is a more robust design. And of course the fact that you can't attempt to plug it in the wrong way helps reduce chances of damage.
Offer me a free copy of Windows or OSX and I will still choose Linux.
I didn't suggest people chose Linux for it's free-of-costness, but it's openness. And you convince yourself that it's more usable, but it's not. That's why it never got widespread adoption.
So you acknowledge that adding a bump on the top would address the issue adequately.
No, it would address it only partially. You snipped the other point that a door key is used often enough that it's orientation is second nature.
And if Exxon stopped producing oil, they'd be fucked too.
But since they aren't going to do that in the foreseeable future, it's not an issue. For either company.
Besides, gasoline based cars have received huge subsidies. Think of the cost in money and lives of the wars fought to make sure their fuel keeps on being available at a low price. And the environmental costs.
It would be worth fixing with a fully open design.
In other words, you accept that it *IS* better, but you are prepared to put up with the currently worse open designs, because they are open. Much as the users of desktop Linux are using an inferior OS on the basis that openness trumps usability for them.
Or it could be fixed with color coding the shell around the connectors.
It would help, but it's still inferior to a design that doesn't need looking at.
At the same time, I don't see a bunch or people ripping their hair out because their house key needs a particular orientation.
Because the keyed side and the smooth side is so very clear, with or without looking. And they use their house key often enough that the up/down orientation of the key is remembered. This doesn't tend to happen with USB plugs of all types. People need to look at both plug and socket to match them up each time.
Slashdot Mirror
They are skeptics, not "deniers".
They [Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer] are. But people like you are deniers. Big difference. Their opinions are based on their interpretation of the science. Your denialism, like most, is based on what suits your libertarian politics.
Rather, they're saying that CO2-based warming isn't proper climate science in the first place.
Clearly you know nothing of basic physics. There never was any doubt about the CO2 greenhouse effect.
You're the one who's saying these are completely different things. If you think that's not a dichotomy, you need to consult a dictionary.
It'll be even funnier if Apple don't release a smartwatch. The lemmings will have rushed in and failed for nothing.
I expect it'll be just as successful as Google Glass. In other words a flop, just like all the other "smart watches" before it.
If it came from nowhere, that would seem a reasonable suspicion. But Nate Silver's reputation for accurately predicting elections and being the "moneyball" guy backs up the claim to be non-partisan and statistics based.
I've won a fair amount of money gambling based on Nate's political stats. Whilst I'm very politically biased, basing decisions based on the stats meant I was able to avoid my own biases. Sadly Nate's rise to fame means that there won't be much value to be had this way in future.
It's shitheads like you that have kept discrimination in the workplace going for so long.
Your views on hiring are hardly mainstream. Most computer programming jobs require a degree to even get an interview.
Scaling up to the size of even a niche player like BMW means ramping up production about 70x.
And Tesla is well placed for this. Their current factory is several times the area they are currently using. And their production line is mostly made from identical robots. So scaling production is mostly just a case of buying more robots. It looks more scalable to me than the traditional production lines, that whilst heavily mechanised, also use a lot more human workers.
I've seen videos of both the Tesla and Nissan Leaf production lines. There are quite a lot of such videos so I can't necessarily point you to the ones that I saw. But here's a shortish one from Wired that will give you the idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Then of course you'll have heard that they are in the process of creating the so called "gigafactory" for batteries, that will be bigger than all the worlds current capacity added together.
Tesla is not playing. They are perfectly executing a growth plan that's going to take them into the big league.
Scaling up to the size of even a niche player like BMW means ramping up production about 70x.
I certainly wouldn't call BMW niche. I've I stand by the side of the road I'll see them passing all the time. But then I live in the UK so that may be different from where you are.
My analysis could be flawed or naive, but it seems to me that a company like BMW should find it much simpler to squish an electric motor into their product while retaining quality than Tesla will find it to ramp production by such an amount while retaining quality.
Hell, BMW are making some nice dedicated EVs. They have a lower priced i3 that came out in Europe recently, and the i8 coming soon that's more in the Tesla Model S class.
I wasn't including BMW when I mentioned dinosaurs! I expect them to also be very successful with EVs. My thoughts were more with the car companies that do what you suggest - adapt existing ICE cars to have EV variants. Those will never be as good as purpose designed EVs.
MEPs are not only for election periods. They represent UK constituents throughout their term of office.
OK, so where are the other MEPs on Question Time? There are 72 of them, yet the only one that they seem to get on QT is Farage. And again, more often than ANY other panellist. Con, Lab and LibDem all have more MEPs, yet their MEPs don't get on QT.
Admit it, it doesn't make sense, and it's unbalanced.
Secondly, as I explained, UKIP chooses to have one strong personality representing their views on air. That is their prerogative.
No it's not. QT select guests. They don't go to a party and take whoever they are offered. It's not for UKIP to decide who gets offered a seat on the panel.
That's a very self serving dichotomy you are suggesting there.
There are reasons that "1984"(sic) and "V for Vigilante"(sic) were set there
Yes. Because the UK has a disproportionately high number of a good writers, and both Eric Blair and Alan Moore live(d) there.
Note also that they don't actually *use* the CCTV's to fight crime. They use them for bureaucratic monitoring, such as insisting that people pay the tax for cars in London, or that they park correctly. They're not used for pickpocketing, luggage theft, or even prosecuting vandals.
They use the CCTV for all of those things. I think you've been reading too much Daily Mail.
(Those personal crimes are not considered "important enough" to justify checking the video records. Been there, done that.)
They tend to use the CCTV live. To guide cops to the places where these things are happening. Combing back through recordings is a different matter, with a different balance. It's a significant use of resources to comb through the video, and then the individuals are long gone from the scene of the crime, and are unlikely to be easily identified. It obviously won't be worth it for for petty crimes. But it is done for more serious crimes.
Not that I'm in favour of all the CCTV. But lying about the uses it's put to isn't helpful.
Work experience at the level of a 18-21 year old is going to be less important than a degree. Especially in the current economy. Flipping burgers, filing or bar work doesn't count for much.
Presuming that price is set by the market, they would have to maintain prices, which means giving up $7500 per vehicle.
Only if you define the market as "all cars". But it's not. People don't compare all cars and then just happen to end up with an EV. Not yet. People in the market for an EV are specifically looking for an EV. And any loss of subsidy would affect all EVs not just Tesla.
I've already accepted that losing the subsidy would lose some sales, as for a few people would pay $70,000 but not $77,500. But that window is not going to catch a huge proportion of their sales.
And I can demonstrate that. Tesla sells two models: The base Model S starts at US$69,900 with a 60 kWÂh battery pack up to US$79,900. Yet the $10,000 more expensive model is the more popular one.
But the fact is that Tesla has no viable business model without government help.
That's not a fact, that's your assumption, and it's a faulty one.
The instant battery technology can make these things viable to the mass market, they will have very strong competition.
Hopefully so. But so far Tesla have proved themselves to be the top EV company. It's hard to see that completely overturned to the point of bankruptcy by the dinosaurs running the traditional car companies.
There are people smarter than myself without degrees.
Sure. And in most cases they'd do better than they do with a degree.
There are morons who have master degrees who I had to let go because they are book smarts but can't do shit in the real world without the deer in the headlights look when independent analysis and goals are needed.
Sure, but they wouldn't be better had they not got a degree.
But in a down economy it means you get that internship or entry level job with the foot in that door. While HR ignores you unless you have many years of experience and letters of recommendation even for the most basic entry level jobs today.
Right, there comes a point at which your work experience becomes more important than the degree. But the point is you are at an advantage in getting that necessary experience if you start out with a degree. For people too young to have an outstanding working history, that HR door is solidly closed.
If it's hard right now for young people with degrees to get a worthwhile job, it's massively harder for young people without a degree.
You don't get it. The point is that the entire world didn't come together
If that was here point, then it would be doubly stupid to call it anomalous in the sense of the human psyche, as the only reason was that there wasn't a technology available to do so.
People's "world" used to be their own town or city, and 'social spaces" used to be real spaces. And the history of people congregating in one place within those worlds is enormous. From the greek theatre, through the roman games, to carnivals and festivals throughout the world.
Other stupid things:
"boydâ(TM)s day job is at Microsoft Research, where she helps make sure Microsoft doesnâ(TM)t miss the beat on privacy and social media trends."
Then she's a complete failure.
Also, what's with the insistence of spelling her name in lower case, even to the extent of using lower case at the start of a sentence, but only those sentences starting with her name? It's pure affectation. And its not the interviewer, you'll find that it's everywhere, even her Wiki page. She's a pretentious idiot.
All genuine degrees have value in getting a job. Some more than others, for sure. But put a candidate who has a degree up against an otherwise similar one who doesn't and the one with a degree has the advantage.
Not only the advantage of a line on their CV. But the practical advantage of the skills they've gained, and the character that has been built. These will help them with the job search and interview.
Of course if they are applying for a job very much below their level, the degree candidate may be rejected as "over qualified". But that just means they are applying for inappropriate jobs. Or perhaps more likely that they simply didn't interview well and it was an easy excuse for the employer.
Experience running and business and going bankrupt is going to count for far less, when subsequently seeking employment. And may even be a negative.
Its like shooting fish in a barrel. As I say they make them every day. Have you never watched it?
You want cites? At random, here's one list of errors Fox News has made and never corrected. Far more than 2 here.
http://www.examiner.com/articl...
Right. Oil would still be profitable. But so would Teslas. As I said, at the price point of the Model S, $7,500 isn't a deal breaker. They'd use a few sales for sure, but not the majority. They'd certainly not lose as many sales as Exxon would without subsidy.
Remember that at present Tesla is a niche car. 6,900 cars in a quarter. They are still serving the wealthy; they haven't got a product for the mass market yet.
Their next Model X is going for a lower priced market, but with features like falcon wing doors, it's obviously still not aimed at the mass market.
You point out two debatable errors by other networks. But distortions like this, and worse, are on Fox News every day.
I am not a UKIP supporter. But they do have more MEPs than the Greens.
Which would only apply during a European election period. Ordinarily the UK MPs are more significant to the UK people.
And they also have one really recognisable face,
Chicken and egg. You can't say he's overly represented on the media because he has a really recognisable face. The only reason it's recognisable is that he's had more media coverage than his position warrants.
so you are going to see him more than you see an average MP from other parties.
I didn't say he was seen more than average MPs. I said that since 2009, he's had more appearances on Question Time than ANYONE. And that's obviously completely uncalled for. He comes from a minority party with no MPs.
I thought J2ME was crazy and stupid over ten years ago, but it worked.
It worked badly. On devices that had both J2ME and native apps, you could easily see the difference. And Javascript is going to be much slower than Java.
Avoiding additional runtimes and APIs is the entire point.
And why would that be a point? What do they cost users or third party developers? The Cocoa Touch API on iOS and Dalvik on Android don't have any drawbacks for being there. They only make developing advanced apps more possible and easier.
It makes it easier and cheaper for the Firefox team to only supply a browser and no other API. But that does nothing to make the platform more attractive fr users. And with no unique selling points, and starting from zero market share, it's a guaranteed failure.
The Apple connector adds complexity to the design that increases cost and failure rate.
Cost, maybe. Failure rate, no chance. MicroUSB is well known for breaking; there's no such reputation for Lightning. Just looking at the two and you can see Lightning is a more robust design. And of course the fact that you can't attempt to plug it in the wrong way helps reduce chances of damage.
Offer me a free copy of Windows or OSX and I will still choose Linux.
I didn't suggest people chose Linux for it's free-of-costness, but it's openness. And you convince yourself that it's more usable, but it's not. That's why it never got widespread adoption.
So you acknowledge that adding a bump on the top would address the issue adequately.
No, it would address it only partially. You snipped the other point that a door key is used often enough that it's orientation is second nature.
And if Exxon stopped producing oil, they'd be fucked too.
But since they aren't going to do that in the foreseeable future, it's not an issue. For either company.
Besides, gasoline based cars have received huge subsidies. Think of the cost in money and lives of the wars fought to make sure their fuel keeps on being available at a low price. And the environmental costs.
It would be worth fixing with a fully open design.
In other words, you accept that it *IS* better, but you are prepared to put up with the currently worse open designs, because they are open. Much as the users of desktop Linux are using an inferior OS on the basis that openness trumps usability for them.
Or it could be fixed with color coding the shell around the connectors.
It would help, but it's still inferior to a design that doesn't need looking at.
At the same time, I don't see a bunch or people ripping their hair out because their house key needs a particular orientation.
Because the keyed side and the smooth side is so very clear, with or without looking. And they use their house key often enough that the up/down orientation of the key is remembered. This doesn't tend to happen with USB plugs of all types. People need to look at both plug and socket to match them up each time.