Automation is shifting repetitive, uncreative, brutish work to repetitive, uncreative, brutish machines, thus freeing humans to pursue nobler interests.
LOL mostly "uncreative, brutish work" just not so much repetitive. And especially "un/underemployed" which is no badge of nobility.
No consolation to the workers who can't find new jobs, I know. But for the larger society, the benefits outweigh the costs.
Let them eat cake. Until the revolution, anyway. If there's one lesson of the 1900s, if the czars were smart enough to issue food stamps, they'd still be in charge.
The best part about firefox sync is it always resulted in duplicates duplicates so even if you "lost" one set of bookmarks bookmarks then you'd have the other copy copy right there. That's why I stopped using firefox sync. xmarks on FF actually worked flawlessly, but FF wanted to put them out of business by shipping something built in that claimed to do the same thing for free but actually didn't work at all. Then I switched to chrome and never looked back. GOOG can F up quite a few more times until they reach the same level of annoyance FF sync reached for me.
I forgot to mention one real life situation where UDP over TCP does not work.. UDP conceptually works pretty well with real time live streaming. "Here's 5 seconds of audio of the ball game". 5 seconds later, if lost, that packet is meaningless, don't bother re-sending it, the RX will just output 5 secs of silence or whatever. TCP does not understand that at all, so you can get serious problems with live streaming if you try to stick that inside TCP and experience significant network congestion. Buffers get bigger until they pop, "live" becomes randomly "tape delayed" based on recipient... Also TCP doesn't understand variable bit rate, so its ideas about buffer allocation bear little resemblance to what the codec actually wants to do.
Why does vxlan transfer L2 packets using UDP and not TCP? I have also seen this on other L2 protocols like L2TP and PPTP... just curious...
TCP has a feedback loop when packets are lost... So you'd have that at both layers, the actual session and the tunnel.
Its an engineering thing where if you embed a feedback loop inside a feedback loop, things will be OK if you're VERY careful but most are not and you'll make a lovely oscillator and just blow it all to bits.
Fundamentally, UDP doesn't guarantee delivery so its OK to shove it inside UDP, and TCP has its own repair mechanism so you don't need to guarantee its sub-layers, so its not like you're missing anything.
Finally it just kills performance because TCP loves big buffers for each connection so you need megatons of ram until you start dropping packets and letting TCP police itself. Which meanwhile results in horrific latency. But if you tunnel over UDP, you don't really need much of a buffer on the tunneler itself and you'll overall end up with better latency specs. So its cheaper and works better. Hard to beat that combo...
Thanks for restating my exact point, which was its a nearly perfect intergalactic "you must be this tall to enter the carnival ride" test.
Its a little stuck up of the space aliens, but its certainly a very effective way of enforcing that savages don't learn about you until they've got, what, at least semi advanced computers and electronics, substantial industrial processes to make the giant detector, a certain level of physics knowledge... its not like the roman empire could have accidentally discovered neutrino pulses accidentally, like they theoretically could have discovered radio waves given the tech of the time.
I wonder how they compared radiation/glass speed through air?
Roughly freshman 2nd semester physics lab, compare the thickness of a glass lens to its focal length to figure the glasses index of refraction, which is just a weird way of expressing how much slower light travels in the glass.
We also did an interferometer lab with a sealed clear tube where the air was sucked out by a vacuum pump and then using monochromatic light you'd count fringes moving as air leaked in a needle valve. Simple gear, but fancy enough to measure how much air slows down light. This will be the next step, evacuated waveguide instead of aerial RF.
In the world of "high tech" you just buy a $50K TDR and a $150K OTDR and measure how long (long as in time) certain cables and stuff are.
Cheapie method involves a long piece of cable (or fiber, or mirrors, or...) looping around a really fast inverter and see what frequency it oscillates at. Lets see, an 80 meter wavelength is about 4 MHz so 40 meters of cable would resonate as a halfwave around 4 MHz or so, right? Or you play games with resonators.
Let it run its course and burn itself out. It'll be replaced. Between SOX costs and other related costs, and HFT, both the corps and the retail investors are not using capital markets as much as they used to. This is not theoretical, look at NYSE volume over the years. Zerohedge has a freakout about it every time yet another record low volume is set.
Now its important to realize in the "short" term we're nearing a market peak to be followed by a pretty big decline. Markets melting up where prices go high and volume collapses are a typical symptom of this part of the cycle. So you need to factor that out. I'm talking about trends longer than one business cycle.
Evidence shows individual retail investors are pretty much done with the market, the corps are fed up with the regulation costs. Both the buyers and sellers are abandoning ship... The big long term picture over the next decade or two is probably growth in private equity and what were known as "junk bonds" 30 years ago. Junk bonds are actually a pretty good idea, although I'm sure some goofball can figure out a way to expensively regulate them and HFT them.
I started in the telecom biz in the waning twilight years of microwave relay stations, and frankly "line-of-site" is pretty accurate, at least in that era. You look on the map and there's a line of digital microwave relay tower sites.
I'm sure in the boom years Manhattan island was criss-crossed by a spaghetti bowl of reflector paths, but in the end years of the tech it was mostly semi-dedicated runs in basically straight lines across rural countryside, from ridgetop to ridgetop, to connect the middle of nowhere with what we call civilization. The tech was a good match for the job, in that remote sites didn't need much bandwidth (how big of a call center can a lumbermill and some hunting cabins require?) so 3 T3 is plenty, and rural workers (lumberjacks etc) could mostly understand "Stay 100 feet away from the microwave tower or your nuts will fry off" (actually we only used a couple watts, so, uh, no, but scaring them worked pretty well at keeping them away) but they could never understand when they were ripping down trees and yanking out stumps to leave our fiber alone.
The biggest problem was salespeople always lie, its their job of course, so engineering got endless complaints from "fiber" customers who noticed their "fiber" lines were impaired whenever it was foggy or intense t-storms. The funniest was when they found out and demand we bury fiber for them. For free, of course. Oh and can we have it done by the end of the day, so I can tell my boss its permanently fixed. Um yeah someone from sales will get back to you on that.
You write as if people haven't served jail time after being extradited across the country for running pr0n BBS or in custody today for doing things illegal in the US while in a foreign country?
Whew luckily no problem here, my motorola defy has so much crapware in the rom, almost as bad as a windows PC, that is so out of date that it's all got updates (now wasting twice the memory) that I don't have to worry about "apps" because I have no space to download apps after installing a very basic set of apps (dropbox, kindle reader, tunein radio, evernote, runkeeper, that kind of can't live without it stuff)
Probably google would make a heck of a lot more money forcing mfgrs to make it possible for users to download apps, than they would by trying to make clean apps that I can't afford to download anyway.
And if there's one thing the last few hundred years of history have taught us, it is that people are willing to kill over abstract ideals even when they share culture, currency and language.
And they usually behave themselves when there's direct economic contact... True, a world of 4chan or xbox voice chat would be pretty messed up, but a world of deal extreme and ebay wouldn't be nearly as bad.
Do they really have to ask, as long as it's within their borders?
Extradition treaties. You live in.us and uploaded a wedding picture of your wife showing bare ankles to facebook? Hopefully the religious authorities in Afghanistan will be lenient with your extradited there for punishment... all in exchange for other countries extraditing I.P. violators to the USA.
Yeah it would be pretty bad. Fictionally, exploring the 1700s has been pretty popular to the point of tiresome. Nobody has explored taking modern culture back to 1700s tech. Even the "1632" series assumes the world's resources are ready for taking (again). "Survivalist" lit doesn't talk about much but the gun battles on the way down. A 1700s tech planet with 2000s culture would be pretty interesting to explore, after all the annoying population reduction is long taken care of. Scientists, doctors, engineers who have all the knowledge but none of the tech would be interesting.
Participate does not equal see. The natives saw the guys with muskets and cannons and giant wooden ships, even if they couldn't get involved in court politics or academic research back home.
Another interesting sci fi book plot or whatever is more than one group of savages (aka us, interpret us as pronoun or united states as you wish) might exist. Sure the neo-roman empire ignores and laughs at us savages as a group, but there should be other just slightly more civilized planets, yet still savages compared to the overlords, doing all kinds of stuff we'd notice, like tossing radioactive waste into their sun screwing up the stellar spectrum, or broadcasting RF all over the place, or doing strange things with neutrinos and graviton sources, or extensive civil engineering with H-bombs, or terraforming other planets in their solar system, or attempting to build a dyson sphere, or fill their upper atmosphere with fluorocarbons, all stuff we'd see other savages doing even if the overlords ignored all of us savages as a group, which is interesting.
I've read Kraus et al about interstellar radio detection, I wonder if anyone out there has run similar numbers for pulsed neutrino generation and detection. I don't care quite enough to shovel thru arxiv for hours, but if some/.er has a useful lead to speed the search? That would make an interesting SETI technique with a built in "you must be this tall" sign to keep the rabble out, apparently EM radiation isn't nearly sufficient. "You must build a cryogenic 100 KM gravitation wave detector to participate in the intergalactic interspecies internet" or "You must be able to generate, control, and detect a neutrino flux equivalent to a major particle accelerator with a 10 amp beam current to participate in the interstellar interspecies internet"
I'd put money on primary energy. Base your whole culture and economy on petrochemicals, use them up, then ? There could be a trillion "successful" civilizations out there right now living a vaguely ancient/medieval lifestyle, with legends of having billions of people burning hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in their distant past, but today its a couple million peasants with wax candles and ox power.
Its a depressing anti-fission anti-fusion anecdote... if any other culture in the universe could have harnessed fission or fusion effectively, we'd currently be a province of their galactic star empire, or at least we'd have detected them by now. Since that seems not to be the case, I'm not overly optimistic about our odds with those energy sources. So when the oil and coal is burned up, that's it. Back to 1700 at best.
Just sit back and chill !! You can't do anything about it !! NO !! You CAN'T !!
Sure you can. Move. Its not that hard, depending where you live. I live near a great lake, the supposed increase in extremes of weather is roughly equivalent to moving about 5% further away from the lake. So I need to move "about" a mile east. Having to move a mile toward the lake sucks for the rich people already living on the lakeshore, but they're the people most able to afford it anyway.
My distant ancestors immigrated to farmland about 100 miles north roughly the same distance from the lake. Absolute worst case screaming eco-nut scenario however highly unlikely, means my GGG-grandkids would have to move 100 miles north to my ancestral homeland to have the same climate as when I was a kid. No big deal.
Wake me when they're growing bananas in Chicago out in the open air, or a hurricane strikes Milwaukee, then I'll get worried about it.
Question doesn't make sense. Its all "greater fool theory". Doesn't matter if its a bad buy because the price is high or the sea is rising. As long as you think there's a greater fool out there to buy it from you at a higher price (because real estate only goes up!) then go for it. Like all bubbles, it works great until it doesn't.
Also if you think modern McMansions are built to last the century or so required to be flooded, you have a rough discovery process ahead. I don't think flooding in a century is a serious concern if a hurricane will destroy it every decade and/or black mold and/or mutant alligator infestations and/or fresh groundwater will all be gone in a couple decades and/or its unlivable for most people without stable electrical grid AC etc. Its kind of like me being worried that within perhaps 5 thousand years its nearly guaranteed that my house will be underneath a two mile sheet of glacial ice, because its happened a zillion times before and will happen again.... yeah but I don't think my 1950s ranch will be around in 6950 AD for other reasons, so I'm not concerned with the inevitable return of the glaciers.
So . . . what will actually, legally, happen when the Seychelles go under?
See the Scarborough Reef for an example of a couple rocks barely above sea level. You'll have a lot of whining about who owns it, and ham radio guys will visit every once in a while.
Note that its probably not going to collapse under the sea in moments... for years they'll just be less and less above high tide, then the day will come when there's only a couple rocks above average high tide, then finally those rocks will occasionally go under, then...
The steadily increasing population and steadily decreasing population workforce participation rate means that'll take care of itself soon enough. To say nothing of the 50% divorce rate, etc.
Slashdot Mirror
Automation is shifting repetitive, uncreative, brutish work to repetitive, uncreative, brutish machines, thus freeing humans to pursue nobler interests.
LOL mostly "uncreative, brutish work" just not so much repetitive. And especially "un/underemployed" which is no badge of nobility.
No consolation to the workers who can't find new jobs, I know. But for the larger society, the benefits outweigh the costs.
Let them eat cake. Until the revolution, anyway. If there's one lesson of the 1900s, if the czars were smart enough to issue food stamps, they'd still be in charge.
The best part about firefox sync is it always resulted in duplicates duplicates so even if you "lost" one set of bookmarks bookmarks then you'd have the other copy copy right there. That's why I stopped using firefox sync. xmarks on FF actually worked flawlessly, but FF wanted to put them out of business by shipping something built in that claimed to do the same thing for free but actually didn't work at all. Then I switched to chrome and never looked back. GOOG can F up quite a few more times until they reach the same level of annoyance FF sync reached for me.
I forgot to mention one real life situation where UDP over TCP does not work.. UDP conceptually works pretty well with real time live streaming. "Here's 5 seconds of audio of the ball game". 5 seconds later, if lost, that packet is meaningless, don't bother re-sending it, the RX will just output 5 secs of silence or whatever. TCP does not understand that at all, so you can get serious problems with live streaming if you try to stick that inside TCP and experience significant network congestion. Buffers get bigger until they pop, "live" becomes randomly "tape delayed" based on recipient... Also TCP doesn't understand variable bit rate, so its ideas about buffer allocation bear little resemblance to what the codec actually wants to do.
Why does vxlan transfer L2 packets using UDP and not TCP? I have also seen this on other L2 protocols like L2TP and PPTP ... just curious ...
TCP has a feedback loop when packets are lost... So you'd have that at both layers, the actual session and the tunnel.
Its an engineering thing where if you embed a feedback loop inside a feedback loop, things will be OK if you're VERY careful but most are not and you'll make a lovely oscillator and just blow it all to bits.
Fundamentally, UDP doesn't guarantee delivery so its OK to shove it inside UDP, and TCP has its own repair mechanism so you don't need to guarantee its sub-layers, so its not like you're missing anything.
Finally it just kills performance because TCP loves big buffers for each connection so you need megatons of ram until you start dropping packets and letting TCP police itself. Which meanwhile results in horrific latency. But if you tunnel over UDP, you don't really need much of a buffer on the tunneler itself and you'll overall end up with better latency specs. So its cheaper and works better. Hard to beat that combo...
Built in ad blocker would probably be more exciting.
unless they had a REALLY good reason to
Thanks for restating my exact point, which was its a nearly perfect intergalactic "you must be this tall to enter the carnival ride" test.
Its a little stuck up of the space aliens, but its certainly a very effective way of enforcing that savages don't learn about you until they've got, what, at least semi advanced computers and electronics, substantial industrial processes to make the giant detector, a certain level of physics knowledge... its not like the roman empire could have accidentally discovered neutrino pulses accidentally, like they theoretically could have discovered radio waves given the tech of the time.
I wonder how they compared radiation/glass speed through air?
Roughly freshman 2nd semester physics lab, compare the thickness of a glass lens to its focal length to figure the glasses index of refraction, which is just a weird way of expressing how much slower light travels in the glass.
We also did an interferometer lab with a sealed clear tube where the air was sucked out by a vacuum pump and then using monochromatic light you'd count fringes moving as air leaked in a needle valve. Simple gear, but fancy enough to measure how much air slows down light. This will be the next step, evacuated waveguide instead of aerial RF.
In the world of "high tech" you just buy a $50K TDR and a $150K OTDR and measure how long (long as in time) certain cables and stuff are.
Cheapie method involves a long piece of cable (or fiber, or mirrors, or...) looping around a really fast inverter and see what frequency it oscillates at. Lets see, an 80 meter wavelength is about 4 MHz so 40 meters of cable would resonate as a halfwave around 4 MHz or so, right? Or you play games with resonators.
There's about a zillion ways to do it.
So what would be your solution
Let it run its course and burn itself out. It'll be replaced. Between SOX costs and other related costs, and HFT, both the corps and the retail investors are not using capital markets as much as they used to. This is not theoretical, look at NYSE volume over the years. Zerohedge has a freakout about it every time yet another record low volume is set.
Now its important to realize in the "short" term we're nearing a market peak to be followed by a pretty big decline. Markets melting up where prices go high and volume collapses are a typical symptom of this part of the cycle. So you need to factor that out. I'm talking about trends longer than one business cycle.
Evidence shows individual retail investors are pretty much done with the market, the corps are fed up with the regulation costs. Both the buyers and sellers are abandoning ship... The big long term picture over the next decade or two is probably growth in private equity and what were known as "junk bonds" 30 years ago. Junk bonds are actually a pretty good idea, although I'm sure some goofball can figure out a way to expensively regulate them and HFT them.
Have no clue what line-of-site is
I started in the telecom biz in the waning twilight years of microwave relay stations, and frankly "line-of-site" is pretty accurate, at least in that era. You look on the map and there's a line of digital microwave relay tower sites.
I'm sure in the boom years Manhattan island was criss-crossed by a spaghetti bowl of reflector paths, but in the end years of the tech it was mostly semi-dedicated runs in basically straight lines across rural countryside, from ridgetop to ridgetop, to connect the middle of nowhere with what we call civilization. The tech was a good match for the job, in that remote sites didn't need much bandwidth (how big of a call center can a lumbermill and some hunting cabins require?) so 3 T3 is plenty, and rural workers (lumberjacks etc) could mostly understand "Stay 100 feet away from the microwave tower or your nuts will fry off" (actually we only used a couple watts, so, uh, no, but scaring them worked pretty well at keeping them away) but they could never understand when they were ripping down trees and yanking out stumps to leave our fiber alone.
The biggest problem was salespeople always lie, its their job of course, so engineering got endless complaints from "fiber" customers who noticed their "fiber" lines were impaired whenever it was foggy or intense t-storms. The funniest was when they found out and demand we bury fiber for them. For free, of course. Oh and can we have it done by the end of the day, so I can tell my boss its permanently fixed. Um yeah someone from sales will get back to you on that.
It's no longer fun once someone forces you to do it. Then it just becomes insulting
Speaking of the company christmas party and team building activities... This lack of effectiveness guarantees promotion of gamification
No Klein bottles? No anime costumes?
You write as if people haven't served jail time after being extradited across the country for running pr0n BBS or in custody today for doing things illegal in the US while in a foreign country?
I don't think it's prudent to be launching a new RPG in this over-saturated market.
Maybe no DRM would be good marketing. Oh wait you're talking about that other RPG. Oddly enough its a pretty good feature for either.
Whew luckily no problem here, my motorola defy has so much crapware in the rom, almost as bad as a windows PC, that is so out of date that it's all got updates (now wasting twice the memory) that I don't have to worry about "apps" because I have no space to download apps after installing a very basic set of apps (dropbox, kindle reader, tunein radio, evernote, runkeeper, that kind of can't live without it stuff)
Probably google would make a heck of a lot more money forcing mfgrs to make it possible for users to download apps, than they would by trying to make clean apps that I can't afford to download anyway.
Why shine a IR laser when you can launch a RPG?
On the modern battlefield if they see you, you're dead. This is not the era of wooden ships and iron men, or even WWII battleships.
There's an interesting battlefield trend over the decades where if they can see you, you're pretty much dead.
And if there's one thing the last few hundred years of history have taught us, it is that people are willing to kill over abstract ideals even when they share culture, currency and language.
And they usually behave themselves when there's direct economic contact... True, a world of 4chan or xbox voice chat would be pretty messed up, but a world of deal extreme and ebay wouldn't be nearly as bad.
Do they really have to ask, as long as it's within their borders?
Extradition treaties. You live in .us and uploaded a wedding picture of your wife showing bare ankles to facebook? Hopefully the religious authorities in Afghanistan will be lenient with your extradited there for punishment ... all in exchange for other countries extraditing I.P. violators to the USA.
Yeah it would be pretty bad. Fictionally, exploring the 1700s has been pretty popular to the point of tiresome. Nobody has explored taking modern culture back to 1700s tech. Even the "1632" series assumes the world's resources are ready for taking (again). "Survivalist" lit doesn't talk about much but the gun battles on the way down. A 1700s tech planet with 2000s culture would be pretty interesting to explore, after all the annoying population reduction is long taken care of. Scientists, doctors, engineers who have all the knowledge but none of the tech would be interesting.
Participate does not equal see. The natives saw the guys with muskets and cannons and giant wooden ships, even if they couldn't get involved in court politics or academic research back home.
Another interesting sci fi book plot or whatever is more than one group of savages (aka us, interpret us as pronoun or united states as you wish) might exist. Sure the neo-roman empire ignores and laughs at us savages as a group, but there should be other just slightly more civilized planets, yet still savages compared to the overlords, doing all kinds of stuff we'd notice, like tossing radioactive waste into their sun screwing up the stellar spectrum, or broadcasting RF all over the place, or doing strange things with neutrinos and graviton sources, or extensive civil engineering with H-bombs, or terraforming other planets in their solar system, or attempting to build a dyson sphere, or fill their upper atmosphere with fluorocarbons, all stuff we'd see other savages doing even if the overlords ignored all of us savages as a group, which is interesting.
I've read Kraus et al about interstellar radio detection, I wonder if anyone out there has run similar numbers for pulsed neutrino generation and detection. I don't care quite enough to shovel thru arxiv for hours, but if some /.er has a useful lead to speed the search? That would make an interesting SETI technique with a built in "you must be this tall" sign to keep the rabble out, apparently EM radiation isn't nearly sufficient. "You must build a cryogenic 100 KM gravitation wave detector to participate in the intergalactic interspecies internet" or "You must be able to generate, control, and detect a neutrino flux equivalent to a major particle accelerator with a 10 amp beam current to participate in the interstellar interspecies internet"
they either boil, starve, or poison themselves.
I'd put money on primary energy. Base your whole culture and economy on petrochemicals, use them up, then ? There could be a trillion "successful" civilizations out there right now living a vaguely ancient/medieval lifestyle, with legends of having billions of people burning hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in their distant past, but today its a couple million peasants with wax candles and ox power.
Its a depressing anti-fission anti-fusion anecdote... if any other culture in the universe could have harnessed fission or fusion effectively, we'd currently be a province of their galactic star empire, or at least we'd have detected them by now. Since that seems not to be the case, I'm not overly optimistic about our odds with those energy sources. So when the oil and coal is burned up, that's it. Back to 1700 at best.
Just sit back and chill !! You can't do anything about it !! NO !! You CAN'T !!
Sure you can. Move. Its not that hard, depending where you live. I live near a great lake, the supposed increase in extremes of weather is roughly equivalent to moving about 5% further away from the lake. So I need to move "about" a mile east. Having to move a mile toward the lake sucks for the rich people already living on the lakeshore, but they're the people most able to afford it anyway.
My distant ancestors immigrated to farmland about 100 miles north roughly the same distance from the lake. Absolute worst case screaming eco-nut scenario however highly unlikely, means my GGG-grandkids would have to move 100 miles north to my ancestral homeland to have the same climate as when I was a kid. No big deal.
Wake me when they're growing bananas in Chicago out in the open air, or a hurricane strikes Milwaukee, then I'll get worried about it.
Question doesn't make sense. Its all "greater fool theory". Doesn't matter if its a bad buy because the price is high or the sea is rising. As long as you think there's a greater fool out there to buy it from you at a higher price (because real estate only goes up!) then go for it. Like all bubbles, it works great until it doesn't.
Also if you think modern McMansions are built to last the century or so required to be flooded, you have a rough discovery process ahead. I don't think flooding in a century is a serious concern if a hurricane will destroy it every decade and/or black mold and/or mutant alligator infestations and/or fresh groundwater will all be gone in a couple decades and/or its unlivable for most people without stable electrical grid AC etc. Its kind of like me being worried that within perhaps 5 thousand years its nearly guaranteed that my house will be underneath a two mile sheet of glacial ice, because its happened a zillion times before and will happen again.... yeah but I don't think my 1950s ranch will be around in 6950 AD for other reasons, so I'm not concerned with the inevitable return of the glaciers.
So . . . what will actually, legally, happen when the Seychelles go under?
See the Scarborough Reef for an example of a couple rocks barely above sea level. You'll have a lot of whining about who owns it, and ham radio guys will visit every once in a while.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal
Note that its probably not going to collapse under the sea in moments... for years they'll just be less and less above high tide, then the day will come when there's only a couple rocks above average high tide, then finally those rocks will occasionally go under, then ...
both adults working
The steadily increasing population and steadily decreasing population workforce participation rate means that'll take care of itself soon enough. To say nothing of the 50% divorce rate, etc.